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How Much Should Jack Eichel Get?

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Many publications discuss Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel in the same sentence. That’s because the two have been linked together for years as they went No. 1 and No. 2 overall in the 2015 draft. They both were considered franchise changing centers and neither has disappointed. However four days into the offseason, the Edmonton Oilers locked up their franchise center, agreeing to an eight-year, $100MM contract, giving him an AAV of $12.5MM. Is Eichel next and how much will he command?

While both players have been talked about together and both have performed admirally, McDavid’s exorbitant contact makes sense. The two-year veteran has scored 46 goals and 102 assists in that span and he actually missed almost half of his rookie season. His 100-point season is a rarity in hockey, but it was a season that captured him the Hart Memorial Trophy as the MVP of the league, the Art Ross Trophy for having the most points in a season, the Ted Lindsay Award, voted on by players and given to the most outstanding player during the regular season. He made his first all-star appearance and was named to the NHL First All-Star Team all in this past year. And at age 20, there is plenty of optimism that he could take his game to new levels.

After awarding that contract to McDavid, Eichel’s turn to sign on the dotted line should be approaching. The question is what is he going to ask for. The 20-year-old, who was the second-overall pick in 2015, might be a nudge ahead of McDavid on goals scored with 48, but Eichel has also played 15 more games than McDavid. Eichel has put up great numbers, scoring 24 goals in both his first two seasons, but his playmaking skills haven’t been as impressive as McDavid. He finished with 56 points in his rookie season and 57 points in his sophomore campaign, although he played 20 games less this past year. He could be holding out for a bigger contract, assuming he will have a breakout year that might garner a similar contract to McDavids.

However, it’s unlikely Eichel will ever garner a contract in the same realm as McDavid. So far, he has proven to be a solid 25-goal scorer and while those numbers could improve quite a bit, he’s hardly accomplished anything that compares to McDavid. His numbers would suggest something in the range of $7MM to $10MM if he holds out to the last moment, but hopefully the young center will not hold out for McDavid money. Buffalo continues to negotiate, but it far more likely that an extension is still a year away.

What do you think he deserves?

Canadiens Likely To Part Ways With Markov

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Andrei Markov is, without a doubt, the best defensive free agent still on the market. Just recently, PHR’s Brian La Rose profiled the veteran free agent. He is coming off another productive season with the Montreal Canadiens, putting up six goals and 36 assists in 62 games this past season, but has been at an impasse with the Canadiens after the 38-year-old blueliner has demanded a two-year deal. Two weeks ago, the Canadiens made it quite clear that they had made their final offers to both Markov and Alexander Radulov, who not long after opted to sign with Dallas. That just leaves Markov.

According to Stu Cowan of the Montreal Gazette, the longer the process takes, the less likely that Markov will return to Montreal. In fact, the scribe says that would be the norm for long-time Canadiens as very few of them have finished their careers in Montreal. The last Canadiens’ captain to finish their career in Montreal was Bob Gainey in 1989. He cites that Markov is currently tied for second on the Canadiens’ list for all-time points as a defenseman with Guy Lapointe with 572 career points. Only Larry Robinson is ahead of him with an unreachable 833 points. However, in both their cases, neither finished their careers in Montreal. LaPointe played for both St. Louis and Boston, while Robinson ended his career in Los Angeles.

Cowan spoke to former NHL player Sergei Berezin, who is Markov’s offseason trainer, who says that even though Markov got married recently, he only took four days off and went back to work training. The veteran hopes to play longer than two years, but his asking price is too much and while his numbers remain good, his numbers have been in decline over the last few years. Only two years ago, he put up 50 points, only to see those numbers decline each year.

Markov who is representing himself in negotiations, is asking for $6MM per year for two more seasons. According to CapFriendly, the Canadiens have more than $9MM in cap space remaining and could use some defensive depth after losing Alexei Emelin and Nathan Beaulieu this offseason and Markov says he would like to remain in Montreal. But, Cowan says that Markov’s time may be up unless Markov drops some of his demands.

Johnson, Palat Signings Likely To Factor In Rangers Negotiations With Zibanejad

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With Mika Zibanejad’s arbitration hearing scheduled just nine days from now, the real question is whether the New York Rangers plan on locking up their young center before that time. With the loss of center Derek Stepan and the lack of depth at the center position, the need for Zibanejad is even more evident and locking up the 24-year-old to a long-term deal would be important as his value should only increase if he goes through arbitration and accepts a one-year deal.

Zibanejad was the key piece to the trade that the Rangers received for trading veteran center Derick Brassard one year ago to Ottawa. The promising playmaker had two solid seasons with Ottawa before New York acquired the former 2011 sixth-overall pick. Had it not been for a broken leg, Zibanejad would have easily duplicated his performance this year in his first season for New York. He managed to play 56 games and score 14 goals and add 23 assists on the season.

Yet now, some key decision-making must be made by Rangers’ brass as to what to offer the young playmaker. The New York Posts’ Larry Brooks writes that the team should look to the recent contracts that the Tampa Bay Lightning handed out to Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat. Johnson just signed a seven-year deal that pays him $5MM annually and Palat was locked up to a five-year contract, worth $5.3MM per year. That’s a starting point. And according to Brooks, both Johnson and Palat are slightly more productive players. Palat has averaged .71 points per game, while Johnson .68 points per game. Zibanejad has averaged just .56 points per game in his career and has been less successful in playoff games as well. Therefore, Brooks suggests that he should be receiving somewhat less money than the Tampa Bay duo, perhaps at $4.8MM per season. The general belief is the Rangers may play it tough in negotiations with Zibanejad since he left respected Newport Sports Agency to use his half-brother to negotiate with.

The key to the negotiations will most likely come down to how many years they can get Zibanejad to sign for. The general belief is that he wants as short of a deal that he can get, because even an average season or two should produce an even better contract in a year or two. Toss in the possibility that with newly signed free agent Kevin Shattenkirk on board, the defense should contribute even more on offense and be more of a benefit to Zibanejad’s play. However, the Rangers will be far more interested in locking him up for five years. So how much more will New York have to offer him to get this deal done. Afterall, no Ranger has reached arbitration since 2007 when Sean Avery and Nikolai Zherdev.

 

Oilers Re-Sign Dillon Simpson

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Defenseman Dillon Simpson and the Edmonton Oilers agreed to a one-year, two-way deal today per a tweet from TVA Sports’ Renaud Lavoie. CapFriendly has the deal at $675K.

Last season, Simpson skated for the Oilers in three games. He spent the majority of the season with the Bakersfield Condors, playing 53 games and registering 11 points (3-8). Simpson is a native of Edmonton and surely hopes to see more time with the Oilers in 2017-18.

With the signing, the Oilers only have one  free agent signing left: Leon Draisaitl

Flyers Re-Sign Lyon, Stolarz, And Bardreau

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The Philadelphia Flyers have announced that goalies Anthony Stolarz, and Alex Lyon along with center Cole Bardreau have re-signed with the club. Both goaltenders inked two-way, one year deals while Bardreau agreed to a two-year contract.

Lyon spent last season with AHL affiliate Lehigh Valley and posted a 27-14-5 mark with a .912 save percentage. Stolarz spent a chunk of his season in Lehigh Valley but appeared in seven games for the Flyers, recording a 2-1-1 record with a .928 save percentage. He recorded his first career shutout against Detroit in just his second professional start with the Flyers. Courier Post writer Dave Issac reports that the signings of both netminders “opens the door” for 2015 pick Felix Sandstrom who is currently playing in Sweden.

Bardreau was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2015, and did enough work for the Phantoms to bring him back for another two seasons in the organization. Recording 24 points in 72 games, Bardreau potted nine goals.

With the signings, general manager Ron Hextall has locked up the team’s three remaining free agents.

Central Notes: DeBrincat, Duchene, Preds’ New Logo

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The Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus updates Blackhawks fans on prospect Alex DeBrincat in the midst of a changing Blackhawks roster. Gone is Artemi Panarin, but waiting in the wings is DeBrincat, who scorched the OHL last season as a member of the Erie Otters. Though Lazerus points out his 5’7 stature as possibly hindering his abilities in the NHL, Lazerus is just as quick to write that DeBrincat has been working with Blackhawks strength coach Paul Goodman to bulk up for the bruising NHL. The 19-year-old has the attention of fans, which Lazarus writes puts “outsized expectations” onto his shoulders. Such expectations don’t seem to faze DeBrincat, whose goal is to “make the team” and work at “his own pace” to to match his own expectations for making the Hawks’ roster. One thing is for certain: all eyes will be on him once the exhibition season begins, to see if his torrid goal scoring find its way to the Hawks.

  • Just because a move still hasn’t made doesn’t mean Matt Duchene is staying in Colorado. CBS Sports’ Cody Benjamin reports that though the market is slow, the talks to acquire the forward are hardly cooling off. Benjamin cites Elliotte Friedman’s report, saying that Nashville and Pittsburgh are teams poking around to find the right deal. Duchene has been in trade purgatory, and though general manager Joe Sakic is seemingly asking for the moon in trade talks, it behooves the Avs to acquire something that will bolster their fortunes after a disastrous 2016-17 season. Patience for the right deal is certainly important, but it deserves stating that should Sakic wait too long, he may end up missing an opportunity to significantly improve the team.
  • Fresh off its first Stanley Cup Final appearance, the Nashville Predators unveiled another change for next season. In commemoration of its 20th season, Nashville will use a special logo for the 2017-2018 season writes the Tennessean’s Adam Vingan. Little else accompanied the news, however, as Vingan reports that more information will be available as the season draws closer.

Vegas Signs Glass, Suzuki, and Brannstrom To ELCs

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Already busy earlier in the day, the Vegas Golden Knights announced that they have come to terms with Cody Glass, Nick Suzuki, and Erik Brannstrom, signing all three to entry-level contracts. The three were all 2017 first round draft choices, with Glass being the sixth overall pick, Suzuki 13th overall, and Brannstrom coming in at 15th overall.

Whether they will crack the Golden Knights’ roster remains to be seen, but from the write up, it sounds like each can absolutely make a case for staying with the big club during the 2017-18 season. Though general manager George McPhee is known to prefer patience with his prospects, a good camp and roster full of players exposed by their former teams makes for an interesting opportunity for incoming rookies.

Vegas managed to snag two forwards who saw their stock rise throughout all of last season.

Glass spent the 2016-17 season with the Portland Winterhawks, registering 94 points (32-62) in 69 games  and being nearly a point-per-game in the WHL playoffs, potting four goals in 11 games. (4-5-9). The 18-year-old forward also has the unique distinction of being the first draft pick in franchise history, and with that comes some added pressure, though Glass is just “happy” to be a part of the history. McPhee moved to grab the two-way forward who came in graded as one of the better centers in what was considered a weaker draft. Blessed with excellent vision and what The Hockey News’ Ryan Kennedy described  as a meteoric rise through junior hockey. Kennedy noted that Glass is the type of player who feeds off of being taken lightly, and believes that the kid will be putting up points in the NHL at high rates.

Similarly, Suzuki turned into one of the darlings of the draft. Another late bloomer, Suzuki is still only 17, and saw his stock skyrocket as the months, weeks, and days drew closer to the draft. Just days before the draft, Kennedy reported that Suzuki was easily the best possession forward in the draft, putting top picks Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier in his rear view mirror according to the advanced stats.

LONDON, ON - FEBRUARY 17: Nick Suzuki #37 of the Owen Sound Attack skates against the London Knights during an OHL game at Budweiser Gardens on February 17, 2017 in London, Ontario, Canada. The Attack defeated the Knights 6-1. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)

Great at avoiding penalties, Suzuki tallied 45 goals for Owen Sound in 2016-17, and bested his new teammate by two points (45-51-96) in just 65 games. If the two truly pan out as many expect, Vegas could have a potent one-two punch at center, which is what dominant teams build foundations upon.

Brannstrom has drawn comparisons to Ryan Ellis, and McPhee noted how getting two elite centers and a mobile defenseman with three top fifteen picks is certainly a road to success. Unlike his teammates drafted before him, Brannstrom would have to return to his Swedish club HV71 should he not be added to the Vegas roster–though it seems a long shot due to his younger age and smaller stature.

Regardless of whether or not the three make the opening roster, Vegas seems to have a great jump on their future with the picks of all three. Whether they earn a few years of extra seasoning, or jump into the NHL fray immediately, Glass, Suzuki, and Brannstrom all bring a dose of optimism to the league’s newest organization.

Photo courtesy of Getty Images

Aging Stars Left Behind

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Probably the most intriguing subplot of the NHL off-season this summer has been the total unwillingness of many teams to sign older players. Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton are two notable examples, but even in their cases there was a lot of unnecessary complication. Marleau had to leave the only franchise he’d ever played for to get an additional contract year, while Thornton had to settle for a single year in San Jose. While hockey fans are enamored by the seemingly ageless Jaromir Jagr, GMs aren’t so impressed. What gives?

The league is heading in a particular direction, and that direction is speed and puck possession. Analytics are absolutely dominating every conversation with NHL executives, agents, coaches, and scouts. For the first year however, we’re seeing this level of scrutiny drastically and obviously affecting player signings and market value. If you had said even three years ago that 46-point hall-of-fame winger would have difficulty finding a home on a cheap NHL contract, you’d have been laughed out of the room.

Shane Doan and Jarome Iginla are interesting cases, each for different reasons. Doan was the ultimate team player in Arizona, dealing with nearly two decades of ownership drama and poor-performing teams. He’s also fiercely disliked within his division for his skills in the art of aggravating. He hits, he plays defense, and he still has the offensive acumen to contribute to a third or fourth line. No takers. Iginla has certainly slowed down, but he looked like he belonged in Los Angeles. He has undeniable scoring ability, and 20 goals wouldn’t be out of the question. His leadership skills were lauded endlessly as the gritty, take-no-prisoners captain in Calgary. At the historically underappreciated left-wing position, he stands out in the new millennium as truly elite. Not to mention, he’s still desperate for that first Cup ring. No takers. Andrei Markov will be 39 years old, but he’s one of the most consistent powerplay quarterbacks in the post-lockout age. He can still skate relatively well and would even be able to handle second-pairing minutes. His shot is a bomb and it seems he never misses a pass when he has a lane. He can’t find a team willing to offer him a second year on his contract. No takers.

Then there’s Jagr. Jagr is easily within the top 50 players of all time. He’s flirting with 2000 points and he controls the puck better than almost anyone in the league, even at the ripe age of 45. He hasn’t posted a negative Corsi since the stat was tracked, and is only a season removed from 66 points, which helped propel Florida into the playoff for the first time in an eon. His foot speed is really his only drawback, and yet, he sits and waits. It’s questionable as to how much of the holdup is based on his desire for adequate compensation, but the fact remains that he is still unclaimed.

Ultimately, the issue for these players comes down to a combination of issues. Firstly, analytics. For those of us who aren’t particularly adept, this overwhelming trend may seem tiresome. There are certainly players in the league who agree that it leaves a lot to be desired. Still in its infancy, Fenwick and Corsi percentiles are really all that has been accepted by the mainstream of hockey fandom, while most front offices have entire positions dedicated to this developing field. A huge part of the disconnect between onlookers and organizations lies in that difference in emphasis of these advanced stats.

Secondly, many teams in the league simply don’t feel they are truly ready to compete for a Stanley Cup. At the moment, under 10 teams probably believe they can contend in the upcoming season, barring a Cinderella run. The league’s parity is arguably at an all-time low since 2004. Consequently, many teams are looking to rebuild or retool their teams, to gain young talent and speedy, dynamic players who will be a part of the future for multiple years. The aforementioned players are all seeking one or two year deals, and many teams simply aren’t thinking in that timeframe. Additionally, the few teams who do feel set to contend right now (Chicago, Pittsburgh, Washington, etc.) are tight up against the cap and don’t want to allocate valuable dollars to a “declining” asset.

Whether this scenario is fair or not to aging players, it seems a dynamic that is here to stay. It would be wholly unsurprising to see this avoidance of over-35 contracts become a trend in the coming years. They’ve certainly bitten teams hard in the past, and perhaps general managers are backing away for good reason. Most of these players should still find a fit, but the prices could be exceptionally low.

Hischier Signs 3-Year Entry-Level Contract With New Jersey

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The 2017 Draft’s 1st-overall pick, Nico Hischier, has signed a 3-year entry level contract with the New Jersey Devils, per AP’s Stephen Whyno. The contract is worth $950,000 and includes signing bonuses. It was also announced that he will wear #13 in New Jersey, after his hockey idol Pavel Datsyuk.

Hischier is a dynamic forward, with amazing playmaking abilities. Playing for Halifax last season, he put up 38 goals and 86 points through 57 games. His phenomenal play in the World Junior Championship captured the attention of the hockey world and likely propelled him over the edge in consideration for top prospect of the class. As the highest ranked Swiss player ever drafted, expectations will be high for Hischier from the start. New Jersey had an exceptionally anemic offense last season, and will need to slot him as a top-six center immediately. Hischier already has the hockey IQ and the natural skill to be a force in the league, and will be an early favorite among Calder predictions. That said, he is less physically well-rounded than the #2 pick of the draft, Philadelphia’s Nolan Patrick. He will need to fill out his 6’1 frame and train properly in order to get a solid beginning in October.

It should be an interesting camp for Hischier, as he will also need to find linemates with whom he can gel. Taylor Hall is a solid bet, as he can blitz defenses with his speed and tenacity, and is a former #1 overall pick himself. Marcus Johansson or Kyle Palmieri could slot in on his right wing, and it’s unclear as to where Adam Henrique will fit. Hischier would likely thrive best beside a pure finisher, but the Devils don’t really have that. Chemistry in the absence of that sniper will be important to his success. Still, Hischier will almost certainly put up respectable numbers and grow as his rookie season comes along. He can score quite easily with the hard, heavy shot he possesses – and Hischier never showed a reluctance to fire the biscuit either. He averaged over 4 shots a game for Halifax.

At $950,000, Hischier’s cap hit is the highest allowable for an entry-level contract. Consequently, his bonuses will be a key component in determining his actual pay. The Devils are no where near a cap or contract crunch, as this contract only puts them at a puny 34 in the entire organization.

Detroit’s Contract Pitfalls

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Detroit is currently dealing with one of the more contentious RFA negotiations in recent memory, as Tomas Tatar has refused a multi-year deal and is not happy with the franchise’s perception of him. The team also needs to negotiate a new contract for Andreas Athanasiou, a speedy center with flashy hands and a lot of upside. The major problem, however, is the cap space with which GM Ken Holland has to operate.

Detroit’s perilous situation is bizarre primarily because it has been largely self-inflicted, and unnecessarily so. The team already has an under-performing and vastly overpaid defensive group, but decided to bring in declining veteran Trevor Daley to a $3.17 MM, three-year deal. This places the team with $2.28 MM left in cap space while still needing to lock up Athanasiou and Tatar. It should be noted that 37 year-old Johan Franzen has been on long-term injured reserve since 2015, so they should be able to allocate his $3.95 MM salary to that reserve upon resumption of the season. Considering the apparently lax interpretation of the off-season rules, this effectively allows Holland $6.23 MM left to sign his two players. Theoretically, it could be enough, but in reality money will need to move out.

Tatar turned down a 5-year deal worth $5 MM per season, according to Michigan Live’s Ansar Khan. If that AAV isn’t enough, which it appears not to be, Holland is in a bit of a bind. Tatar was their only player to break 20 goals (25), and finished third on the team in points behind only Henrik Zetterberg and Gustav Nyquist. His offensive capabilities are pretty essential to a team hurting so badly for consistent production. Tatar wants his $6 MM, and there’s a good chance he’ll get it. Holland could try to deal Tatar before his arbitration date, but the return might not be as productive as Holland would like. If the parties do go to arbitration, Tatar will only need to sign for one season, which would almost assure his eventual departure.

Athanasiou will come cheaper and likely on a shorter term. If Holland can secure the player for under $2 MM, it would be a boon. The wiser move would be to try to extend the player on a longer deal in hopes that he becomes a bargain in the near future. Unfortunately, with the Tatar situation taking precedence, it seems an unlikely scenario. Even still, his measly $2 MM would put the Wings over the cap ceiling, even with Franzen on LTIR. So who would be on the outs?

Petr Mrazek was almost lost to the Vegas Golden Knights through the expansion draft, and with Jared Coreau playing stellar in the Grand Rapids, he seems the most likely candidate to move. He only costs $4 MM and after his down season, Holland would like to give Jimmy Howard the reigns back. Unfortunately, the Mrazek “attitude” rumors may have lessened his trade value. Perhaps even more importantly, the goaltending carousel has ground to a halt, with essentially every team securing a starter for the coming year.

Justin Abdelkader is on a really poor contract, complete with a no-trade clause, worth $4.25 MM AAV for the next six seasons. After a seven goal season, however, there won’t be many teams chomping at the bit for his services. Darren Helm didn’t fare much better offensively, but with a $3.85 MM contract and only four years on his deal, he’s not entirely unmovable. Again, he has a no-trade clause to complicate matters. There are the defensemen, such as Jonathan Ericsson, but with three years left and already declining at 33, he would also net little in return. Luke Glendening is an interesting option, as he is the cheapest of this group. Despite his two-way prowess, a forward with 3 goals in a season, even at a mere $1.8 MM, will still be a tough sell.

Ultimately, the Wings have overpaid a number of players and the contracts are for far too long. The amount of no-trade clauses handed out is an absurd hindrance when a team is trying to rebuild or retool. With 8 players on the roster with some sort of movement-limiting clause, Holland has few options to give himself relief. The worst case scenario would be to lose Tatar, but the team has truly painted itself into a corner regardless of who is shipped out. With an aging defense and an uninspiring offense, the Wings’ return to relevance will only be delayed from here on in.

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