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Offseason Checklist: Nashville Predators

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With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Predators.

This was supposed to be a season of transition for Nashville.  At least, so it seemed.  They got weaker on paper over the summer and it looked to be the start of at least a small rebuild.  However, several underachieving veterans had bounce-back years and the end result was the Predators making the playoffs and then being swept by Colorado.  GM David Poile likes the term “competitive transition” as it relates to the state of his team so their checklist this summer keeps that in mind.

Add Impact Pieces

With the Predators looking to stay in the playoff hunt, they’ll need to put their cap space to good use this year.  With over $23MM at their disposal, they have some room to add a key player or two even after re-signing their own free agents.

Up front, their top six is still fairly thin with several question marks.  Matt Duchene had a career year with 43 goals and 43 assists.  At the age of 31, can he repeat that type of performance or was this just a season where everything went right?  Ryan Johansen had his best season since coming to Nashville back in 2016 while Mikael Granlund was only a few points shy of matching his career-best.  There is a question of sustainability for all three of those players and even if there wasn’t, another top-six forward to fill the role vacated by Viktor Arvidsson following his trade last summer is needed.

There was a time when Nashville had the best defense corps in the NHL.  That isn’t the case anymore.  Instead, the average fan would have a hard time naming anyone beyond Norris finalist Roman Josi and steady veteran Mattias Ekholm.  It’s not a particularly deep group and a top-four rearguard to push one of Dante Fabbro or Alexandre Carrier onto the third pairing alongside the recently-extended Jeremy Lauzon would go a long way towards shoring up that unit even if it doesn’t bring them back to the days of being the best group in the league.

Do these moves alone vault Nashville into contender status?  No, but if they want to stay where they are or give themselves a shot at moving up a bit in the standings, these would certainly help their chances.

Re-Sign Forsberg

Duchene wasn’t the only veteran to have a career year this season as Filip Forsberg did as well, notching 42 goals and 42 assists despite missing 13 games due to a stint in COVID protocol and an upper-body injury.  There’s never a bad time to set new benchmarks but the year before hitting unrestricted free agency for the first time is certainly a great time and that’s what Forsberg did.  The two sides engaged in talks off and on during the season but couldn’t reach an agreement and Poile held off on trading him at the deadline.

This is one of the most important contract negotiations in franchise history.  Forsberg has been a fixture in their lineup for eight years and the possibility of him jumping ship to another team less than a month from now has to be concerning.  It would certainly go a long way towards derailing their competitive transition.  Forsberg’s camp knows this and will try to wield that in discussions.

As for what the cost of a new deal will be, it won’t be cheap.  Forsberg is coming off a six-year, $36MM deal and as a 40-goal scorer, he can command considerably more than that; a contract in the $8MM to $9MM range should be achievable for him.  On top of that, a max-term agreement is certainly doable as well.  For Nashville, that’s eight years as long as it’s done before the start of free agency and seven years for everyone else.  Forsberg turns 28 this summer and a max-term deal for a winger coming off a career year that will make him the highest-paid forward on the team is not an ideal combination for the Predators but it’s one they’ll have to bite the bullet on to keep him in the fold.

Bring In Goalie Depth

With Juuse Saros, Nashville has their starter in place for the next three seasons on a below-market contract.  With Yaroslav Askarov, they believe they have their future starter in place.  Most teams would love that combination but the Predators still have some work to do between the pipes.

Poile brought in David Rittich to serve as Saros’ backup this season with the hopes he could rediscover his form from a few years ago.  That didn’t happen as he had a save percentage of just .889 in 17 appearances.  With Saros injured for the playoffs, Rittich faltered quickly, forcing head coach John Hynes to turn to third-stringer Connor Ingram who had all of three career NHL appearances up to that point.  Rittich is unlikely to return and while Ingram is on a one-way deal for next season, are the Predators ready to make him their backup?

If not, they’ll need to turn back to the free agent market and instead of looking for a low-cost option, they would be wise to aim a little higher and get a more proven second option to take some of the pressure off Saros and give them some extra injury insurance.  On the other hand, if they do want to go with Ingram, then adding a veteran third-string option becomes a must.  Askarov will play his first full season in North America next season and adding a veteran that can be called up as the backup when injuries hit to not interrupt Askarov’s development would be a wise move.  Either way, Poile will be goalie shopping next month.

Utilize An Unlikely Trade Asset

When Nashville dealt Ryan Ellis to Philadelphia last summer, they hoped that Philippe Myers would be a capable replacement.  Let’s just say that didn’t happen.  Instead, the 25-year-old struggled mightily when he was in the lineup, was a frequent healthy scratch, and cleared waivers before the trade deadline.  From there, they didn’t even bother sending him to their own AHL affiliate as he was loaned to Toronto instead.  And yet, despite all of that, he is one of Nashville’s more intriguing trade chips this summer.

Myers has one year left on his current contract at $2.55MM which, for someone that can’t crack an NHL roster, seems like the type of deal teams should be doing their best to stay away from, not acquire.  It’s a lock to be bought out.  But his contract is heavily backloaded and since he’s only 25, the buyout cost is one-third instead of the usual two-thirds.  The end result is that whoever buys him out this summer will receive a cap credit of $617K.  Yes, a team could increase their cap space next season by buying Myers out while they’d only have to eat a $633K cap charge in 2023-24.  Who could use some extra cap space this summer for a total cash outlay of $633K?  The short answer is a lot of teams.

There isn’t much precedent for a trade like this.  Toronto picked up Jared Cowen from Ottawa in 2016 who was in that situation but it was part of a nine-player swap which makes it difficult to ascertain his standalone value in that deal.  But with a lot of teams looking for cap space, it stands to reason that Myers will actually have some value this summer.  Even if it’s only for a mid-round pick in the end, getting an asset for someone that’s clearly on his way out the door would be a good way to start Nashville’s summer roster movement.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: San Jose Sharks

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Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Sharks.

Key Restricted Free Agents

  • G Kaapo Kahkonen – Kahkonen was acquired from the Minnesota Wild at the trade deadline as part of the Jacob Middleton trade, and Kahkonen performed reasonably well as he began to take on a more prominent role late in the Sharks’ season. Kahkonen finished with ten starts in San Jose and posted a .916 save percentage. When combined with his 23 starts as a member of the Minnesota Wild, Kahkonen’s overall 2021-22 save percentage is .912, an encouraging mark for a goalie not set to turn 26 until the middle of August. The Sharks will have to make a decision this offseason, as once Kahkonen is re-signed they will have three NHL-caliber goalies under contract (Kahkonen, Adin Hill, and James Reimer), and are unlikely to spend a full season with a three-goalie group.
    As for Kahkonen’s next contract, he does have arbitration rights as an RFA meaning he has at least some negotiation power in deciding his future. A bridge deal at around $2MM-3MM could make sense, although there is an interesting contract comparable that could prove troublesome if the Sharks want to retain Kahkonen on the cheap. Los Angeles Kings goalie Calvin Petersen, in a similar RFA situation to Kahkonen, at a similar age, inked a three-year deal with the Kings at a $5MM AAV. Petersen’s numbers compared to Kahkonen’s are similar: when he signed his contract, Petersen was coming off of a season where he had a .911 save percentage and 2.89 goals-against average in 32 starts, while Kahkonen enters his time as an RFA with a .912/2.87 in 33 starts. They’re basically identical numbers, the only major difference being that Petersen started 32 games in the shortened 2020-21 season, so his marks represented a larger share of the available games for a goalie to play. Given the similarity in his numbers, Kahkonen could reasonably demand a similar contract to Petersen and therefore likely make negotiations more difficult for the Sharks.
  • F Noah Gregor – Gregor has been a solid find for the Sharks as a 2016 fourth-round pick, developing from his time as a star in the WHL into the reliable two-way forward he was this past season. Gregor played sound two-way hockey and became a more and more trusted weapon of coach Bob Boughner, finishing the season with just under 15 minutes of average time on ice. Gregor didn’t overwhelm with his production, but his eight goals and 23 points in 63 games is decent enough, and his strong scoring at the AHL level indicates he may have some more offense to come as he gets more comfortable against NHL competition. While long-term deals for players with limited NHL experience are becoming more commonplace (Vegas Golden Knights defenseman Zach Whitecloud, as an example, got a long-term $2.75MM AAV deal and had less than a full season of NHL experience) a short-term bridge deal is the likeliest outcome for Gregor. Gregor worked on a $750k cap hit this year, so expect a raise but nothing major as Gregor doesn’t yet have arbitration rights, and the Sharks will be hard-pressed for cap space.
  • D Mario Ferraro – Ferraro has become an increasingly important defenseman in San Jose and just finished a season where he averaged 23 minutes of time on ice per game. His offense isn’t anything to write home about – just 14 points in 63 games – but it’s his leadership, physicality, and overall defensive game that makes him such a valued part of the Sharks lineup. There is some debate over Ferraro’s true overall skill level, and if his time-on-ice is truly reflective of his value, but it’s clear the Sharks rate him highly and that’s ultimately all that matters in contract negotiations. The Sharks could opt for a long-term deal with Ferraro, but since they figure to have some cap troubles and are intent on competing in the near future, a bridge deal seems more likely.

Other RFA’s: Jonathan Dahlen, Alexander Chmelevski, Jonah Gadjovich, John Leonard, Nicolas Meloche, Joachim Blichfeld, Zachary Gallant, Jacob McGrew, Antoine Morand, Brinson Pasichnuk, Zach Sawchenko

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

The Sharks’ only unrestricted free agents of any consequence are Anthony Bitetto, Ryan Dzingel, and Alex Stalock, three players who combined to play seven total games for the Sharks this past season. While Bitetto, Dzingel, and Stalock are all NHL veterans, they do not figure to play a major role in San Jose moving forward even if re-signed.

Projected Cap Space

This is where things get dicey for San Jose. The Sharks are currently projected to have just $5.67MM in cap room to start this offseason, and since they have NHL-caliber RFA’s to re-sign in Ferraro, Dahlen, Kahkonen, and Gregor, as well as an intention of improving their roster significantly, that’s just not enough space to make the moves their next GM will likely want to make. Big contracts for players such as Erik Karlsson, Brent Burns, Logan Couture, and Marc-Edouard Vlasic mean that finding the necessary wiggle room will take immense creativity, and their precarious cap position is further complicated by the uncertainty of the Evander Kane situation, as the deliberations over the grievance he filed have not yet been concluded. A buyout for Vlasic, a trade of one of the highly-paid players, or even dealing one of the players on a moderate deal such as Reimer would go a long way to creating room for San Jose to operate. Whatever path they choose, it’s clear they will have to do something in order to create the necessary breathing room under the salary cap they need to return to contention.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Vegas Golden Knights

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With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Golden Knights.

There’s never a dull moment in Vegas.  That thought often applies to the city in general but it also certainly applies to their hockey team.  The Golden Knights made a big change in-season to land Jack Eichel which set off a cascade of frequent LTIR placements to keep compliant down the stretch.  With a banged-up roster, they came up just short of the playoffs, resulting in a change behind the bench.  Between that and their cap situation, GM Kelly McCrimmon has a lot on his plate over the coming weeks.

Hire A New Head Coach

Let’s start with an obvious task.  For the second time in their five years of existence, the Golden Knights made a coaching change when Peter DeBoer was dismissed last month after less than three seasons with the team.  Vegas certainly didn’t do poorly with him in charge as the team posted a .650 points percentage during the regular season while making the third round of the playoffs in the two seasons before this one.  But after missing the postseason this year, an outcome few would have expected in the fall, the change was made.

There is no shortage of veteran coaches available and with Vegas clearly in win-now mode, few expect them to look at a first-time option.  Barry Trotz and Bruce Cassidy stand out as two potential candidates although other former NHL bench bosses will be considered as well.

There is plenty to like about where Vegas sits.  They’re a perpetually competitive team with a strong nucleus that’s under contract for a while.  Spending is certainly never an issue as well.  If you’re a coach that’s looking for a spot to try to win right away, this opening may be the most desirable around the league which is good news for McCrimmon as he looks to find his next head coach over the next few weeks.

Free Up Cap Space

Then there’s the other obvious task this summer.  Vegas has been dancing around the Upper Limit of the salary cap for several years now with a continual expectation that it’s going to come back to get them soon enough.  The challenge for McCrimmon this summer will be freeing up some space without significantly hurting the core.

Let’s look at where things stand.  They have $200K in cap space and need to sign at least three forwards and have a healthy backup goalie with Laurent Brossoit having some uncertainty after having hip surgery this summer.  Considering the minimum salary remains $750K, there’s clearly some cutting to be done.

The obvious candidate is Evgenii Dadonov.  The winger was traded to Anaheim back at the trade deadline without Vegas realizing that Dadonov’s no-trade clause was still in effect and the Ducks were on it.  Eventually, the deal was rescinded.  To his credit, the 33-year-old didn’t let it be a distraction as he had 16 points in 16 games after the deadline.  However, he had a fairly quiet season overall with 20 goals and 23 assists in 78 games, production that is relatively low compared to his $5MM AAV.  While the Golden Knights don’t have a deep prospect pool to trade away from or many high draft picks, they’ll need to attach something to get a team that’s on Dadonov’s allowable trade list to take on the final year of his contract.

With Eichel in the fold, Vegas now has a top-line center while Chandler Stephenson has established himself as a quality second option.  That could put William Karlsson in some jeopardy.  At $5.9MM for the next half-decade, that’s a high price to pay to have premium depth down the middle.  He’s coming off a quiet season (35 points in 67 games) but with strong centers always in high demand, there should be some interest on the trade front and it’s worth noting that Karlsson can only block a trade to ten teams.

As for a blueliner that could fit the bill, Alec Martinez is coming off an injury-plagued year that saw him suit up just 26 times.  With Shea Theodore and Brayden McNabb being proven options on the left side of the back end, Martinez and his $5.25MM for two more years might be a potential cap casualty although he also has trade protection and can block a trade to a dozen teams.

Reilly Smith is set to hit the open market this summer and there is mutual interest in an extension.  At a minimum, one significant salary will need to be moved (likely Dadonov) but if they want to keep Smith in the fold, a second one will need to be moved out unless McCrimmon plans to get very creative with his LTIR usage once again.

Re-Sign Roy

Nicolas Roy had a breakout season in 2021-22, further bolstering their depth down the middle.  After putting up just 15 points in 2020-21, he had 15 goals this season along with 24 assists.  He also upped his faceoff percentage to 48.8%, an increase of 4% from the year before.  He took a regular turn on both the power play and penalty kill, helping his ATOI improve to a career-best 16:16 per game.  That’s quite a nice platform season as Roy enters restricted free agency this summer with arbitration eligibility for the first time.

Between that and Vegas’ cap situation, Roy could be an offer sheet candidate this summer if a deal isn’t done early.  With the new thresholds, a team could offer Roy $4.2MM ($4MM more than the Golden Knights have in cap space) and only owe a second-round pick in compensation.  For a 25-year-old with two years of team control remaining, that’s more than a reasonable price to pay.  With that in mind, McCrimmon will want to try to get this contract done sooner than later if possible to avoid any risk of an offer sheet and also ensure one of his core youngsters will stick around.

Look Into Adding Goalie Depth

Injuries were an issue for Vegas last season, particularly between the pipes.  Robin Lehner missed time with four separate injuries spanning 23 games and underwent successful shoulder surgery following a rather bizarre set of events where reports had him needing surgery with DeBoer insisting his starter was available to play.  Brossoit, meanwhile, had hip surgery last month as well.  Accordingly, there are some question marks (if Brossoit is still around and not traded as cap relief).

Vegas does have Logan Thompson who did a nice job down the stretch for them and as he’s now waiver-eligible, it’s safe to say he’ll be in the NHL picture.

The Golden Knights have a pair of goalie prospects signed for next season in Jiri Patera and Isaiah Saville but neither have seen NHL action.  If they have an injury with the big club – a likely scenario based on recent history – having a veteran option with AHL Henderson that has some NHL experience would be a worthwhile investment.  Experienced third-string goalies often bounce around and Vegas should be adding one to give themselves an insurance policy heading into training camp.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Seattle Kraken

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Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Kraken.

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Ryan Donato – After bouncing around a bit the past few seasons, the once highly-touted prospect settled in for a quality first season with the Kraken, putting up 16 goals and 15 assists for 31 points in 74 games. Donato’s 74 games played were the most in a season for his career, as were his 31 points, which ranked sixth on a struggling Kraken team. As Seattle looks to improve and draw closer to its first-ever playoff berth, they’ll look to bring in new talent, but also retain the pieces that seemed to work for them, which would presumably include the 26-year-old forward. After signing a two-year, $3.8MM contract prior to the 2019-20 season with Minnesota, Donato took a pay cut this season in Seattle at just $750K, but after his strong 2021-22 performance, he could be in line for a contract similar to the one he signed in 2019.

F Morgan Geekie – Geekie was selected from the Carolina hurricanes in the Expansion Draft and settled into his first regular role in the NHL, playing in registering 22 points in 73 games for the Kraken, both career-highs. Not the flashiest player, Geekie makes a living as a hard-working, gritty forward which should serve him well as he he looks to continue his career and play regular minutes on a Kraken team that’s also looking to improve. When his ELC expired last offseason, Geekie signed a one-year, $750K contract with Seattle, a deal which seemed to work out well for both player and team. This offseason, Geekie will likely find a modest raise as well as the opportunity to show that he is part of the long-term plan in Seattle.

F Daniel Sprong – A deadline-day deal saw Sprong come from the Washington Capitals as part of the return for forward Marcus Johansson, Sprong continued his quiet-but-effective play with Seattle, scoring six goals in 16 games. Sprong is an interesting player, having been traded three times already in his young career, he’s never had a true chance to settle in with a team. The forward has never had eye-popping numbers at the NHL level, but he has shown the ability to score goals with relative ease. As Seattle looks to find players to build around without a long-settled foundation, Sprong has shown in his brief tenure with Seattle that he was capable of scoring goals, his six in 16 equivalent to a 30 goal pace in an 82 game stretch. He may not find much of a raise over his previous $725K cap hit, but his age (25) and his ability to put pucks in the net could see him getting a real, consistent NHL look with Seattle in 2022-23.

F Karson Kuhlman, F Kole Lind, F Alexander True, F Carsen Twarynski, D Haydn Fleury, D Dennis Cholowski, D Cale Fleury

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Victor Rask – Rask’s case is interesting, coming off a six-year, $24MM contract he signed with the Carolina Hurricanes prior to the 2016-17 season. The forward would see himself struggle for Carolina and was eventually dealt to the Minnesota Wild in January of 2019, struggling there as well. Rask would actually rebound to an extent in 2021-22, putting up 13 points in 29 games for the Wild, however salary cap issues forced the organization to bury him in the AHL. As a result, the Wild dealt Rask to Seattle in a salary cap trade at the 2022 deadline, Rask continuing his bounce-back with eight points in 18 games for the Kraken. Where Rask winds up is of course unknown, and he surely won’t see another $24MM contract this offseason, however he has used his 2021-22 very nicely, especially in the face of adversity, to re-establish his value as an NHLer.

F Riley Sheahan – After spending his entire career with the Detroit Red Wings organization, an October, 2017 trade set Sheahan off on a stretch of six teams in five seasons, culminating in a 2021-22 season with the NHL’s newest team. Sheahan turned in a typical-for-him 17 points in 69 games this season, playing his usual 200-foot game as a responsible bottom-six center. The 30-year-old should be useful to a number of teams in different situations, including a building Kraken, a playoff-bound team, or somewhere in between. Having had three straight seasons with salaries under $1MM, most recently $850K this season, Sheahan would presumably wind up with something in that neighborhood once again.

D Derrick Pouliot, D Connor Carrick, D Gustav Olofsson, G Antoine Bibeau

Projected Cap Space:

Seattle projects to have $22.885MM in available cap space this offseason from which to work with. This of course will be enough to retain their pending RFAs and UFAs if they want to, the most expensive of these likely being Donato and Rask, who would probably not go much north of $3MM each per season, if that high. The key consideration for Seattle will be getting better, the team finishing 27-49-6 in their inaugural season. Their available cap space will provide plenty of options to improve and work the free agent and trade markets, but as far as their impending free agents are concerned, the decision may be less about affordability as it is with other teams, and more about what kind of talent they can find to play there. Even if they can retain all of their free agents and find a few to bring in from the outside while staying under the salary cap ceiling, it doesn’t change the fact that they cannot have more than 50 contracts in the organization and 18 skaters dressed each night. On that note, Seattle currently sits with 22 out of a maximum 50 contracts allowed, plenty of room to work.

Free Agent Focus: St. Louis Blues

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Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Blues.

Key Restricted Free Agents

D Niko Mikkola – It has taken a while but Mikkola has worked his way into being a full-fledged member of the back end for the Blues, albeit in still a limited capacity.  The 26-year-old played in a career-high 54 games this season but was also scratched rather frequently.  When he has played, he has shown some promise as a stay-at-home, physical defender that can do well on the third pairing.  But at Mikkola’s age, that’s not a particularly high bar to try to meet.  He’s owed a qualifying offer of just over $826K but the most notable element here is that he’s a year away from UFA eligibility.  Between that and arbitration rights, Mikkola will be able to beat that qualifier but are the Blues in a spot where they would be willing to pay closer to $1.5MM and get a couple of extra years of team control?  Will they be able to afford to do so?

D Scott Perunovich – Perunovich’s time in the pros has been mired with ups and downs.  After missing all of last season due to injury, he was limited to just 36 regular season games this season thanks to injuries.  When he did play, however, he showed the offensive skill that he had in college that has made him one of their top prospects.  But with missing so much time, the 23-year-old certainly isn’t in a spot to command much more than his $874K qualifying offer which is a two-way tender.  It’s entirely possible St. Louis opts to try to get Perunovich to take less than that in exchange for a one-year, one-way deal, giving them a tiny bit of extra cap flexibility and the blueliner a guaranteed payday.

F Klim Kostin – The 2017 first-rounder had an opportunity to spend the bulk of the season with St. Louis and held his own on the fourth line, collecting nine points in 40 games while averaging just over nine minutes a night.  Those numbers certainly don’t stand out but he should be a strong candidate for a spot at the end of the roster in St. Louis next season.  His contractual situation is the same as Perunovich’s – he’s owed the $874K qualifier but it’s possible the Blues try to get him to take less in exchange for a one-way salary.

Other RFAs: F Will Bitten, F Tanner Kaspick, F Hugh McGing, F Nathan Todd

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Ville Husso – For years, Husso was viewed as the goalie of the future for the Blues and while it took him a while to get to the NHL, he showed this season that he can be a strong goalie at the top level, posting a 2.56 GAA along with a .919 SV% (good for a tie for sixth-best in the league).  However, he didn’t fare as well in the playoffs, ending his season on a lower note.  With just 64 career NHL appearances under his belt (including the playoffs), the 27-year-old doesn’t have enough of a track record to command a long-term, high-dollar contract like the six-year, $36MM deal Jacob Markstrom got in free agency two years ago.  But a shorter-term deal in the $4MM range should be achievable as there will be teams out there that will view Husso as a low-end starter or a high-end backup.  Either way, he’s heading for a significant raise after making the league minimum the last two years.

F David Perron – Since returning to the Blues in 2018, Perron has averaged a higher point per game rate than his career average which is notable since he turned 34 last month.  At a time when many players start slowing down offensively, he’s improving his output.  In terms of points among pending UFAs, Perron sits eighth and if he was to get to the open market, he’d likely receive a nice raise from the $4MM AAV he had on his most recent deal.  And yet, few expect him to actually get to free agency.  While he has played on five different teams in his NHL career, Perron has only signed contracts with St. Louis, opting to come back each time he reached the open market with another organization and there is certainly an expectation that he will do so again.  If that’s the case, he might leave some money on the table to do so.

D Nick Leddy – The Blues were able to add Leddy at the trade deadline to shore up their back end and Leddy didn’t disappoint, averaging over 21 minutes a night down the stretch and in the postseason (where he was one of several St. Louis rearguards to miss time due to injury).  At this stage of his career, the 31-year-old is not the top defender that he was at times with the Islanders but he could still be a solid second-pairing player or a high-end third-pairing option on a deeper squad.  With a UFA crop that isn’t particularly deep, Leddy should generate considerable interest although it would be very surprising to see him beat the $5.5MM he made on his soon-to-expire contract.

Other UFAs: F Sam Anas, F Tyler Bozak, D Dakota Joshua, G Charlie Lindgren, F Mackenzie MacEachern, F James Neal

Projected Cap Space

The Blues have just over $9MM in space below the $82.5MM Upper Limit and while they don’t have many roster spots to fill (likely a couple of forwards, two defensemen, and a goalie), they don’t have enough money to keep all of their pending UFAs around.  They also have to be mindful of big contracts on the horizon for Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas (both 2023 RFAs) while Ryan O’Reilly will need an extension as well at that time.  There’s enough room for GM Doug Armstrong to keep at least one of their UFAs in the fold but if he wants to keep more than one, he’ll need to find a way to free up some cap flexibility first.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Vancouver Canucks

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those who were eliminated in the first two rounds.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Canucks.

It was a season of change for Vancouver.  The big move to add Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Conor Garland last summer didn’t help, resulting in GM Jim Benning being shown the door with Patrik Allvin and Jim Rutherford coming over from Pittsburgh to lead the front office.  They underachieved under Travis Green, resulting in Bruce Boudreau taking over behind the bench and while they didn’t get to the playoffs, they were much more competitive in the second half.  Now, Allvin has some big files to tackle this summer as he looks to get the Canucks back into the playoff picture.

Free Up Long-Term Cap Flexibility

The Canucks have enough flexibility that they can navigate through this summer, keep the core intact, and give it another go next season.  But that doesn’t make the team any better and maintaining the status quo will only make it harder to make their cap situation work a year from now.  They have $48.5MM in commitments to ten players for 2023-24.  On the surface, that would appear to be manageable.  But J.T. Miller, Bo Horvat, and Brock Boeser aren’t in that group while Elias Pettersson will be extension-eligible at that time as well.  If those players all sign for market value, that really will limit them in terms of upgrading their roster.  That’s at the forefront of their offseason planning.

With that in mind, Allvin needs to find ways to create some extra space.  Tanner Pearson isn’t on a terrible contract at $3.25MM for two more years but they could save some money by replacing him with a cheaper piece, perhaps Russian free agent Andrei Kuzmenko who they’ve been linked to.  Jason Dickinson was brought in to solidify the third-line center spot, receiving a commensurate contract in the process, one that pays him $2.65MM for the next two seasons.  He didn’t fit in well in his first season with the Canucks, scoring just five goals in 62 games.  Finding a new home for one or both of them would give them a bit of wiggle room next summer when they’ll really feel the cap crunch.

To that end, one other route they could look to go is finding a taker for the final year of Micheal Ferland’s LTIR contract.  Yes, his $3.5MM AAV is an expiring deal next summer but if they can clear him out and stay out of using LTIR, they might be able to avoid the bonus overage penalty for 23-24 with Vasily Podkolzin and Nils Hoglander carrying sizable incentives in their contracts; Kuzmenko will likely have plenty as well if he winds up joining the Canucks.  They can manage the cap situation this summer but they will need to be aggressive in freeing up some flexibility from there.

Decide Miller And Horvat’s Future

Let’s dig into some of those players that are about to get a lot more expensive.  Miller is at the top of that list.  He’s coming off a breakout season that saw him lead the Canucks in scoring and narrowly miss out on reaching the 100-point plateau.  He also has spent a lot of time down the middle which will only increase his value.  He’s set to become an unrestricted free agent next summer and impact centers rarely become available.  Those that do get significant paydays and it’s safe to say Miller will be heading for one of those compared to the $5.25MM cap charge he’ll carry next season.  That expected contract is what had him in plenty of trade speculation leading up to the deadline.

Rutherford (who has made the rounds in the media lately) has made it clear in recent interviews that the team expects to be able to keep Miller in the fold.  Some of the recent comparable centers that have signed long-term deals (Mika Zibanejad, Tomas Hertl, and Logan Couture) all signed for $8MM or more while Sean Couturier came in just under that.  All received eight-year deals.  Miller’s production was higher than theirs this season but that was the only time he was over the point-per-game mark which should keep the AAV on a max-term extension somewhere in the range of those comparables.

If they go ahead and sign Miller to a deal like that, it’s going to make it harder to keep Horvat in the fold.  With Miller in the $8MM range and Pettersson needing a qualifying offer of $8.82MM in the 2024 offseason, can Vancouver really afford to have another high-priced pivot in Horvat?  While he won’t command the type of money their other two centers make, he’ll be in line for a raise on his $5.5MM AAV on his next deal and it wouldn’t be entirely shocking if he surpassed the $7MM mark.

While they may want to keep both of them in the fold, it will be very difficult for them to do so.  Accordingly, they’ll need to find out who is willing to stay and what the asking prices are and then decide whether to start shopping one now or keep both into the season in the hopes of getting back to the playoffs.  Some big decisions are on the horizon, to say the least.

Re-Sign Boeser

Most of Vancouver’s cap space this summer is heading for Boeser.  Unlike Pettersson, he’s subject to the old qualifying offer rules which means his salary from this season is his qualifying offer which puts the required tender at $7.5MM.  While the team certainly hoped that the winger would be able to emerge as a legitimate front-line winger, Boeser has yet to reach the 30-goal mark or record more than 56 points in a single season.  On the surface, that type of production for $7.5MM isn’t ideal.

If the Canucks tender Boeser, the winger can simply accept the offer and become UFA-eligible in 2023 or try his luck with salary arbitration and hope for a small bump up.  Neither is an ideal scenario for Vancouver as it would make him expensive and a rental all at the same time.  It doesn’t seem like there’s any chance they’d non-tender him but they could opt for club-elected arbitration to try to get him a little cheaper as the required offer would be 90% or $6.75MM.

Knowing that, Allvin will be wanting to try to get this one resolved sooner than later.  A long-term deal at or around this rate wouldn’t yield much in the way of savings but would ensure one of their top wingers will be around for a while.  If discussions on that front don’t go well, however, it’s reasonable to expect Boeser will be in trade speculation as well.

Revamp The Back End

On top of all of these decisions up front, Vancouver has some work to do on their defense as well.  Quinn Hughes has become a top offensive option and Ekman-Larsson is still a top-four rearguard even if he is no longer the player he was a few years ago with Arizona.  After that, however, things thin out quickly.

The Canucks don’t have much in the way of offensive options behind Hughes (Travis Dermott might help a little in this regard), nor do they have a lot of depth on the right side.  Tyler Myers is miscast in a top role while Luke Schenn is a capable depth blueliner but not someone who should be higher than the third pairing in an ideal situation.  That’s it for righties they can count on with Tucker Poolman’s availability being in question after missing basically half the season with recurring headaches and migraines.  There’s a case to be made that Vancouver needs a couple of top-four defensemen as a result although they’ll be hard-pressed to afford even one unless they can find a way to free up some short-term money for next season and some long-term money knowing what lies ahead in the 2023 summer.  Allvin certainly has his work cut out for him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Tampa Bay Lightning

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Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Next up is a look at the Lightning.

RFAs: F Tye Felhaber, F Simon Ryfors, F Otto Somppi, F Odeen Tufto, D Sean Day, D Alex Green, G Alexei Melnichuk

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Ondrej Palat — Entering his 30s now, the Czech is in line for the second payday of his career as his five-year, $26.5MM contract signed in 2017 expires this offseason. Palat remains a dominant playmaking winger on the top line of a team entering the dynasty conversation with a third consecutive Stanley Cup Finals appearance within reach. While injuries have somewhat artificially lowered his regular-season point totals, he’s remained remarkably consistent, notching between 15 and 20 goals for three consecutive seasons. It’s in the playoffs where Palat has done his best work, though. He’s really shone through on Tampa’s current run, scoring eight goals, six assists, and 14 points in 16 games, the best points-per-game rate in his playoff career. He was equally as impressive during Tampa’s first Cup run in 2020, scoring 11 goals in 25 games and playing 20:55 per game. He’s been leaned on heavily in the second and third rounds this year with Brayden Point’s injury, and his performance is only boosting the number he’ll receive on his next contract. Whether Palat becomes the latest player to fall victim to Tampa’s constant cap crunch remains to be seen.

F Nick Paul — The Trade Deadline acquisition from the Ottawa Senators has done it all for the Lightning in his short tenure, most notably with his two-goal performance to knock out the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 7 in the First Round. Paul’s shown his ability to stick out on an already talented team, as his defensive game (especially on the penalty kill) has fortified Tampa’s depth in a much-needed way. While a defensive specialist first and foremost, he did have 14 points down the stretch in 21 games for Tampa and he’s added seven points in 16 playoff games. If that’s a sign of what Paul can really produce on a good team, he should be a hot commodity in free agency among contenders who have a little more cap flexibility. In the same way that Yanni Gourde broke out and flourished in the same third-line center role, few would expect Tampa to be able to retain Paul’s services as a UFA. It’s never a good idea to count out general manager Julien BriseBois and his team’s expert cap management, though, and he’d continue to play an important depth role moving forward.

D Jan Rutta —  A latecomer to NHL action, making his NHL debut at 27, Rutta’s been used as the partner to Victor Hedman at even strength and gotten the job done. While his special teams minutes are nonexistent aside from a small amount of penalty-killing time, he’s been an important depth piece for Tampa, although maybe not to the degree of someone like Paul. He’s demonstrated that he can be reliable in limited minutes or with sheltered competition, making him an ideal, cheap complementary veteran for a team’s top players. If Rutta demands a raise on his current $1.3MM cap hit, though, it could be tough for the Lightning to keep him around. Teams are constantly willing to pay up for right-shot UFA defensemen, and Rutta could benefit financially from that market elsewhere.

Other UFAs: F Riley Nash, F Remi Elie, F Charles Hudon, F Anthony Richard, D Fredrik Claesson, D Darren Raddysh, G Maxime Lagace

Projected Cap Space

At first glance, things really don’t look good for the Lightning this offseason. CapFriendly already projects them in the red for this offseason with a -$2MM figure for their projected cap space. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story, as the potential LTIR relief from Brent Seabrook’s $6.785MM figure isn’t incorporated into that total. Tampa likely has closer to $4.5MM to work with this offseason, which, if they do plan on keeping Palat around, will likely all go to him (if he’ll take a discount).

It’s likely that the Lightning lose another key piece this offseason, whether it be due to Palat walking or the team trading away another player. Some eyes would look at Ryan McDonagh and his $6.75MM cap hit as juicy trade material to free up space, especially considering the team still has Mikhail Sergachev stuck behind Hedman and McDonagh on the depth chart. He still plays an incredibly important role on the team, though, and it would be a tough goodbye considering the team’s lack of real depth on the right side.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Focus: Toronto Maple Leafs

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Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Next up is a look at the Maple Leafs.

Key Restricted Free Agents

D Rasmus Sandin – Having barely played a full season’s worth of games in his career, Sandin has impressed in his young career, totaling 28 points in 88 career games on the backend for Toronto. The 2018 first-round pick can expect a reasonable raise over his $895K AAV on his previous contract, his ELC. The Maple Leafs are currently, like many teams, up against the salary cap ceiling, and will have some tough decisions to make as they try to bring back as much of their roster as they can, while improving too.

Sandin may be a casualty of Toronto’s moving parts, as the team already has Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin, Mark Giordano, and T.J. Brodie under contract for next season, all of whom, like Sandin, play the left side. It’s not that Sandin has disappointed or that his raise will be too much to handle, but dealing a 22-year-old defenseman with upside from a position of strength could provide tremendous value for Toronto.

D Timothy Liljegren – Much of what can be said about Sandin, can be said about Liljegren. A first-round pick of Toronto in 2017, Liljegren has spent parts of the last three seasons in the NHL, getting a bulk of his action, 61 games, this season. Liljegren hasn’t taken the world by storm, but has impressed and was a steady presence in Toronto’s defensive core this year, and like Sandin, played a role in helping the much-discussed Maple Leafs defense take a real step forward. Unlike Sandin, Liljegren plays the right side, a position Toronto only has one player signed for next season: Justin Holl. Even if Toronto re-signs Ilya Lyubushkin (see below), they would still need Lilejgren to round things out. Liljegren can expect a raise over his ELC salary, however, it should be one modest enough for Toronto to handle, especially given their need for right defense.

F Pierre Engvall – After two solid seasons to start his career, Engvall found himself having a breakout 2021-22 season for Toronto, setting career-highs in goals with 15, assists with 20, points with 35, and games played with 78. These numbers won’t blow anyone away compared to teammates Auston Matthews or Mitch Marner, but the massive Swedish winger was able to turn heads coming off of a two-year, $2.5MM contract that carried a $1.25MM cap hit, which he is likely now due a raise on and is eligible to go to arbitration for.

F Ondrej Kase – After signing as a free agent with Toronto last offseason, Kase finds himself once again as a RFA. Kase’s case should be interesting, as the winger signed a three-year, $7.8MM contract following the expiration of his ELC in 2018, then with the Anaheim Ducks. He would struggle greatly with injury after being traded to the Boston Bruins, playing in just nine games in a season and a half, and being allowed to walk as a free agent. Toronto would sign Kase for one year and $1.25MM, where he would again struggle with injury, but play to a more respectable 27 points in 50 games. With a rebound on his resume, Kase could be dealt a raise over his previous $1.25MM salary, perhaps closer to the $2.6MM cap hit he signed in 2018. However, given Toronto’s need to improve while balancing a tight cap, Kase could be a candidate to be let go as an RFA, just as he was last offseason.

Other RFAs: D Joseph Duszak, D Chad Krys, D Kristians Rubins, G Ian Scott

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Jack Campbell – When it comes to pending free agents for Toronto, no player has a bigger spotlight than Campbell. Toronto’s starting goaltender had an up and down season in 2021-22 after several strong seasons playing part-time for the Los Angeles Kings and the Maple Leafs. The 30-year-old’s first half was good enough to earn him All-Star honors, however, he struggled after the All-Star break and even missed time due to injury. Upon his return, Campbell was again stellar down the stretch before a less-than-impressive showing against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round of the playoffs.

After letting previous starting goaltender Frederik Andersen go in free agency last summer, eventually winning the Jennings Trophy with the Carolina Hurricanes this season, Toronto is still unsure about its future in net. If Campbell can routinely be the player he was in the first half of 2021-22, the answer for the Maple Leafs is clear, but his more recent struggles loom large. Those struggles also don’t change the fact that Campbell was an All-Star and has performed well for more than a few games, which should lead to a relatively large salary increase from the $1.65MM cap hit he had in 2021-22. Considering a limited goalie market and several teams having a need in net, Toronto may have to prioritize Campbell and find a number they are comfortable with, then make adjustments to handle the salary cap afterward.

D Ilya Lyubushkin – The aforementioned spotlight on Campbell as Toronto’s primary UFA seems to overshadow Lyubushkin’s impending free agency. A large, physical defender who Toronto acquired from the Arizona Coyotes along with Ryan Dzingel for a second-round pick and Nick Ritchie earlier this season, Lyubushkin fills a role Toronto, as mentioned, is short on–right defense. Arguably their best player at that position, the Maple Leafs will have to do their best to keep a player they know they can trust, otherwise, their options for a cost-controlled right defenseman may be hard to come by. Lyubushkin likely won’t see big money this offseason, but coming off of a one-year, $1.35MM contract, the 28-year-old will absolutely have his own leverage.

F Ilya Mikheyev – The 27-year-old Mikheyev may be as likely as anyone to depart from Toronto. After requesting a trade from the organization, Mikheyev stayed put and put up a career year, finding the back of the net 21 times, a career best, with a career-high 33 points in 53 games. Mikheyev will surely receive a raise over his $1.645MM cap hit the previous two seasons in Toronto, a luxury Toronto likely can’t afford, and though Mikheyev never was traded, his UFA status will give him the freedom to choose where he plays.

Other UFAs: F Colin Blackwell, F Brett Seney, D Teemu Kivihalme, G Michael Hutchinson, G Carter Hutton

Projected Cap Space:

The theme of this article, and likely of Toronto’s offseason, is limited cap space. The team needs to improve if it wants to have deep, sustained playoff success. However, they have just under $7.185MM in projected salary cap space for next season. That’s plenty to make an addition or two, but they first need to re-sign their starting goaltender, one of their top right defensemen, and give modest raises to two young defensemen in Liljegren and Sandin and a breakout forward in Engvall. At that point, an addition would be nearly impossible. All of this before trying to perhaps re-sign Kase and Mikheyev.

One bright spot for Toronto in this difficult situation is its depth. Going back to Sandin, the organization boasts several quality NHL left-defensemen, allowing them to potentially deal from this strength to add a cost-controlled option at a weaker position. The team also has several high-quality prospects that could be ready to make that jump to full-time NHL work, including Matthew Knies, Nicholas Robertson,  and Nicholas Abruzzese.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Focus: Vancouver Canucks

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Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Next up is a look at the Canucks.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Brock Boeser — Since turning pro in 2017, Boeser has turned into one of the more consistent scorers on the Canucks despite what most view as a stalled development process. Boeser has notched at least 45 points in his five full NHL seasons, and he’s scored 20 goals in four of those years as well. While Boeser had consistently stuck around 0.80 points per game from 2017-18 to 2020-21, though, his scoring pace numbers took a dip this year with 46 points in 71 games. A lot of that can be attributed to his (and the team’s) slow start under former head coach Travis Green, though, as evidenced by an eight-game pointless streak from November 11 to November 26, 2021. After the team replaced Green with Bruce Boudreau on December 6, 2021, Boeser finished the season with 36 points in those 49 games, much closer to his usual pace. While a below-average play-driver, Boeser remains a strong shooter and good power-play contributor. Coming off a three-year bridge deal that already awarded him $5.875MM per season, though, Boeser is likely only in line for a small raise given his weaker contract year performance (if he’s not dealt).

F Matthew Highmore — Vancouver acquired Highmore from the Blackhawks over a year ago in a one-for-one swap for Adam Gaudette. While not in possession of the largest stature, Highmore remains a good defensive specialist who can be of value in a fourth-line role. He managed to squeak into 46 games with the Canucks in 2021-22, though, notching 12 points (both career-highs). While a regular role in the lineup may not be carved out for him next season, the Canucks will likely be able to keep him around on a cheap, one-way deal. At 26 years old, Highmore should remain a solid option to slot into a fourth-line role for a few years to come.

F Juho Lammikko — Similar to Highmore, Lammikko was acquired for another overgrown prospect in the Canucks system. Unluckily for Highmore, though, he and Lammikko were both battling for similar roles, and Lammikko won in the eyes of the team. The Finnish forward was absent for just seven of Vancouver’s 82 games this season, playing in a career-high 75 games with a career-high seven goals and 15 points. While Highmore is a better defensive forward by most advanced metrics, Lammikko’s comfortability in the faceoff circle and at the center-ice position gave him the edge. He’s likely more in line for a seven-figure deal given his regular role in the lineup, but it’s not a guarantee.

Other RFAs: F William Lockwood, D Guillaume Brisebois, D Jack Rathbone, G Michael DiPietro

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Jaroslav Halak — Signed to a one-year deal last offseason to be the backup to Thatcher Demko, we may have seen the last NHL game in Halak’s career. Halak only played in 17 games this season as he battled injuries, COVID, and poor play (just a .902 save percentage on the year). While most of that was due to Demko’s excellence in goal, he was outshined at points by veteran third-stringer Spencer Martin, who posted a .950 mark in six games. Considering Martin is signed to a one-way contract next season, it’s a sign that the organization may rely on him as a cheap backup option. With that, plus a handful of young goalies in the system, there’s no longer an organizational fit for Halak. At 37 years old, he’s unlikely to receive much free agent interest.

F Alex Chiasson — The veteran forward earned a spot out of camp on a professional tryout contract and proceeded to give the Canucks a solid return on their investment in 2021-22. Chiasson continued to do what he’s done for his entire NHL career — give his team a decent amount of goals in a limited role. The 31-year-old lit the lamp 13 times this season, good enough for eighth on the team. However, with more young players within the organization pushing for roles, it’s unclear whether the organization will have much interest in retaining him. Given his continued limited usage and poor defensive numbers, he’s unlikely to command much on an extension or on the open market.

Other UFAs: F Brad Richardson, F Brandon Sutter, F Justin Bailey, F Phillip Di Giuseppe, F Sheldon Dries, F Nic Petan, F Sheldon Rempal, F John Stevens, D Brad Hunt, D Madison Bowey, D Noah Juulsen, D Ashton Sautner, D Devante Stephens

Projected Cap Space

The Canucks do have a few roster spots to fill without unlimited room. While the Boeser extension won’t take up all of their projected $11.5MM in cap space, the team is under pressure to move forward toward playoff contention, which will require a free agent acquisition or two. There’s also the matter of the 2023 offseason when both captain Bo Horvat and J.T. Miller will become unrestricted free agents. Moving Micheal Ferland’s $3.5MM cap hit back to LTIR will give Vancouver some more cushion, but that only lasts through this year.

Vancouver could look at moving on from Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s massive $7.2MM cap hit through 2027, although they’d need to give up something significant to dump the contract. It may be worth it, though, as it’s an anchor deal that could seriously inhibit the team from developing properly. Regardless, they do have a little bit of wiggle room entering next season, allowing them to at least be somewhat competitive in free agency.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract figures courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Winnipeg Jets

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those who were eliminated in the first two rounds.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Jets.

After being ousted by Montreal in the playoffs a year ago, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff shored up the back end with the hopes that would help Winnipeg get to that next level.  Instead, they underachieved this season, both with and without Paul Maurice behind the bench, and ultimately came up short of reaching the playoffs.  Cheveldayoff once again will have some work to do to try to get the Jets back into the postseason picture.

Hire A Head Coach

With Maurice surprisingly stepping aside midseason, Cheveldayoff made the logical choice to elevate Dave Lowry to the interim head coaching role.  It didn’t result in the type of improvement they were hoping for as Winnipeg’s points percentage under Lowry (.537) was basically identical to Maurice’s (.534).  In other words, the coaching change didn’t move the needle.

Lowry was the logical choice at the time in that the team wouldn’t have had the opportunity to interview assistants currently employed if they made a full-time hire midseason.  While a handful of assistants are still working at the moment, the team has been able to do a more comprehensive search (beyond Barry Trotz, who is basically singlehandedly holding up the market right now).

While Lowry is expected to interview for the full-time role, a new voice from outside the organization would make the most sense.  A new system from a new coach could be a significant enough change to avoid needing to necessarily make any core changes to the roster.  Cheveldayoff is thought of as one of the managers who tends to be patient with his rosters so it’s quite possible that a big addition behind the bench could be their biggest move of the summer.  But with free agency fast approaching (where coaches want to have their input), a new coach will need to be in place soon.

Re-Sign Dubois

When Cheveldayoff decided to shake up his core early in the 2020-21 season with the acquisition of Pierre-Luc Dubois for Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic, the 2022 offseason became a very important one for the Jets.  That corresponded with the end of Dubois’ contract as the 23-year-old is set to become a restricted free agent with arbitration eligibility this summer.  He has already gone through one contentious negotiation, one that ended with a trade request out of Columbus, and now, Dubois is two years away from being eligible to hit the open market.

He’s coming off a strong season, one that saw him reach a career-high in goals (28) while picking up 60 points.  That has him positioned to land more than the $6MM qualifying offer he’s owed but the question is how much higher should they be willing to go?  If they want to sign him to a long-term deal that buys up some UFA years (and Dubois is amenable to signing that type of contract), the AAV is likely to go beyond Kyle Connor’s $7.143MM price tag.  Do they want to go that high and reset the benchmark for their younger core?

On top of that, there is also a question of where Dubois best fits.  He was brought in to play center but he has spent a fair amount of time on the wing as well.  A long-term, big-money deal could potentially price them out of re-signing Mark Scheifele in a couple of years; does it make sense to do that for a player who may be better off as a winger than a center?

If it feels like there are a lot of questions for a pending restricted free agent, it’s because there are.  The route they go with Dubois will help shape their planning for beyond the 2022-23 campaign so getting this done sooner than later would be ideal.  Dubois is likely to file for an arbitration hearing if something isn’t worked out over the next six weeks so this is something that will need to be resolved by late July or early August at the latest.

Create Cap Flexibility

The Jets have around $18MM available this summer but have anywhere between seven and ten players to sign with that money.  A big chunk of that will go to Dubois which won’t leave a lot to spread around the rest of the openings.  Freeing up a bit of extra flexibility would certainly help Cheveldayoff to build out the rest of the roster without having to resort to signing several players for minimum-salary deals to stay cap compliant.  Forward depth has been problematic the last couple of years so being able to spend a bit more on their bottom six would help.

In order to do that, they will likely need to trade away from their back end as there really aren’t any viable non-core forwards that could be traded to free up space.  They have nearly $25MM tied up in their five most-expensive blueliners which is a lot.  Nate Schmidt didn’t have a great trade market a year ago and that likely hasn’t changed while Josh Morrissey and Neal Pionk aren’t likely to go anywhere.  That whittles it down to Brenden Dillon ($3.9MM through 2023-24) and Dylan DeMelo ($3MM through 2023-24); moving one of them to make a roster spot for a prospect like Ville Heinola or Dylan Samberg would give them some cap relief and also provide a chance for one of them to get an extended look in the NHL.  In a summer where many teams will be looking for some extra flexibility, any little bit helps.

Fill Backup Goalie Slot

Eric Comrie more or less got the backup goalie spot by default with the Jets due to his contract being at the league minimum.  To his credit, he did quite well this season, posting a .920 SV% and 2.58 GAA in 19 appearances, giving Winnipeg solid value from that backup spot.  But Comrie is set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer and after the year he had, he should be able to command more than $750K on the open market.

The Jets will once again need to shop towards the lower end of the market unless they can free up a few extra million in cap space but while Mikhail Berdin is on a one-way deal for next season, his performance with AHL Manitoba isn’t good enough to really contend for that spot so they will almost certainly have to look outside the organization if they can’t reach a new deal with Comrie.  Considering the opening day of free agency usually results in quite the game of musical chairs for netminders, this is something Cheveldayoff will need to address by July 13th.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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