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Free Agent Focus: Seattle Kraken

at CDT | by 11 Comments

Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Kraken.

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Ryan Donato – After bouncing around a bit the past few seasons, the once highly-touted prospect settled in for a quality first season with the Kraken, putting up 16 goals and 15 assists for 31 points in 74 games. Donato’s 74 games played were the most in a season for his career, as were his 31 points, which ranked sixth on a struggling Kraken team. As Seattle looks to improve and draw closer to its first-ever playoff berth, they’ll look to bring in new talent, but also retain the pieces that seemed to work for them, which would presumably include the 26-year-old forward. After signing a two-year, $3.8MM contract prior to the 2019-20 season with Minnesota, Donato took a pay cut this season in Seattle at just $750K, but after his strong 2021-22 performance, he could be in line for a contract similar to the one he signed in 2019.

F Morgan Geekie – Geekie was selected from the Carolina hurricanes in the Expansion Draft and settled into his first regular role in the NHL, playing in registering 22 points in 73 games for the Kraken, both career-highs. Not the flashiest player, Geekie makes a living as a hard-working, gritty forward which should serve him well as he he looks to continue his career and play regular minutes on a Kraken team that’s also looking to improve. When his ELC expired last offseason, Geekie signed a one-year, $750K contract with Seattle, a deal which seemed to work out well for both player and team. This offseason, Geekie will likely find a modest raise as well as the opportunity to show that he is part of the long-term plan in Seattle.

F Daniel Sprong – A deadline-day deal saw Sprong come from the Washington Capitals as part of the return for forward Marcus Johansson, Sprong continued his quiet-but-effective play with Seattle, scoring six goals in 16 games. Sprong is an interesting player, having been traded three times already in his young career, he’s never had a true chance to settle in with a team. The forward has never had eye-popping numbers at the NHL level, but he has shown the ability to score goals with relative ease. As Seattle looks to find players to build around without a long-settled foundation, Sprong has shown in his brief tenure with Seattle that he was capable of scoring goals, his six in 16 equivalent to a 30 goal pace in an 82 game stretch. He may not find much of a raise over his previous $725K cap hit, but his age (25) and his ability to put pucks in the net could see him getting a real, consistent NHL look with Seattle in 2022-23.

F Karson Kuhlman, F Kole Lind, F Alexander True, F Carsen Twarynski, D Haydn Fleury, D Dennis Cholowski, D Cale Fleury

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Victor Rask – Rask’s case is interesting, coming off a six-year, $24MM contract he signed with the Carolina Hurricanes prior to the 2016-17 season. The forward would see himself struggle for Carolina and was eventually dealt to the Minnesota Wild in January of 2019, struggling there as well. Rask would actually rebound to an extent in 2021-22, putting up 13 points in 29 games for the Wild, however salary cap issues forced the organization to bury him in the AHL. As a result, the Wild dealt Rask to Seattle in a salary cap trade at the 2022 deadline, Rask continuing his bounce-back with eight points in 18 games for the Kraken. Where Rask winds up is of course unknown, and he surely won’t see another $24MM contract this offseason, however he has used his 2021-22 very nicely, especially in the face of adversity, to re-establish his value as an NHLer.

F Riley Sheahan – After spending his entire career with the Detroit Red Wings organization, an October, 2017 trade set Sheahan off on a stretch of six teams in five seasons, culminating in a 2021-22 season with the NHL’s newest team. Sheahan turned in a typical-for-him 17 points in 69 games this season, playing his usual 200-foot game as a responsible bottom-six center. The 30-year-old should be useful to a number of teams in different situations, including a building Kraken, a playoff-bound team, or somewhere in between. Having had three straight seasons with salaries under $1MM, most recently $850K this season, Sheahan would presumably wind up with something in that neighborhood once again.

D Derrick Pouliot, D Connor Carrick, D Gustav Olofsson, G Antoine Bibeau

Projected Cap Space:

Seattle projects to have $22.885MM in available cap space this offseason from which to work with. This of course will be enough to retain their pending RFAs and UFAs if they want to, the most expensive of these likely being Donato and Rask, who would probably not go much north of $3MM each per season, if that high. The key consideration for Seattle will be getting better, the team finishing 27-49-6 in their inaugural season. Their available cap space will provide plenty of options to improve and work the free agent and trade markets, but as far as their impending free agents are concerned, the decision may be less about affordability as it is with other teams, and more about what kind of talent they can find to play there. Even if they can retain all of their free agents and find a few to bring in from the outside while staying under the salary cap ceiling, it doesn’t change the fact that they cannot have more than 50 contracts in the organization and 18 skaters dressed each night. On that note, Seattle currently sits with 22 out of a maximum 50 contracts allowed, plenty of room to work.

Free Agent Focus: St. Louis Blues

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Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Blues.

Key Restricted Free Agents

D Niko Mikkola – It has taken a while but Mikkola has worked his way into being a full-fledged member of the back end for the Blues, albeit in still a limited capacity.  The 26-year-old played in a career-high 54 games this season but was also scratched rather frequently.  When he has played, he has shown some promise as a stay-at-home, physical defender that can do well on the third pairing.  But at Mikkola’s age, that’s not a particularly high bar to try to meet.  He’s owed a qualifying offer of just over $826K but the most notable element here is that he’s a year away from UFA eligibility.  Between that and arbitration rights, Mikkola will be able to beat that qualifier but are the Blues in a spot where they would be willing to pay closer to $1.5MM and get a couple of extra years of team control?  Will they be able to afford to do so?

D Scott Perunovich – Perunovich’s time in the pros has been mired with ups and downs.  After missing all of last season due to injury, he was limited to just 36 regular season games this season thanks to injuries.  When he did play, however, he showed the offensive skill that he had in college that has made him one of their top prospects.  But with missing so much time, the 23-year-old certainly isn’t in a spot to command much more than his $874K qualifying offer which is a two-way tender.  It’s entirely possible St. Louis opts to try to get Perunovich to take less than that in exchange for a one-year, one-way deal, giving them a tiny bit of extra cap flexibility and the blueliner a guaranteed payday.

F Klim Kostin – The 2017 first-rounder had an opportunity to spend the bulk of the season with St. Louis and held his own on the fourth line, collecting nine points in 40 games while averaging just over nine minutes a night.  Those numbers certainly don’t stand out but he should be a strong candidate for a spot at the end of the roster in St. Louis next season.  His contractual situation is the same as Perunovich’s – he’s owed the $874K qualifier but it’s possible the Blues try to get him to take less in exchange for a one-way salary.

Other RFAs: F Will Bitten, F Tanner Kaspick, F Hugh McGing, F Nathan Todd

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Ville Husso – For years, Husso was viewed as the goalie of the future for the Blues and while it took him a while to get to the NHL, he showed this season that he can be a strong goalie at the top level, posting a 2.56 GAA along with a .919 SV% (good for a tie for sixth-best in the league).  However, he didn’t fare as well in the playoffs, ending his season on a lower note.  With just 64 career NHL appearances under his belt (including the playoffs), the 27-year-old doesn’t have enough of a track record to command a long-term, high-dollar contract like the six-year, $36MM deal Jacob Markstrom got in free agency two years ago.  But a shorter-term deal in the $4MM range should be achievable as there will be teams out there that will view Husso as a low-end starter or a high-end backup.  Either way, he’s heading for a significant raise after making the league minimum the last two years.

F David Perron – Since returning to the Blues in 2018, Perron has averaged a higher point per game rate than his career average which is notable since he turned 34 last month.  At a time when many players start slowing down offensively, he’s improving his output.  In terms of points among pending UFAs, Perron sits eighth and if he was to get to the open market, he’d likely receive a nice raise from the $4MM AAV he had on his most recent deal.  And yet, few expect him to actually get to free agency.  While he has played on five different teams in his NHL career, Perron has only signed contracts with St. Louis, opting to come back each time he reached the open market with another organization and there is certainly an expectation that he will do so again.  If that’s the case, he might leave some money on the table to do so.

D Nick Leddy – The Blues were able to add Leddy at the trade deadline to shore up their back end and Leddy didn’t disappoint, averaging over 21 minutes a night down the stretch and in the postseason (where he was one of several St. Louis rearguards to miss time due to injury).  At this stage of his career, the 31-year-old is not the top defender that he was at times with the Islanders but he could still be a solid second-pairing player or a high-end third-pairing option on a deeper squad.  With a UFA crop that isn’t particularly deep, Leddy should generate considerable interest although it would be very surprising to see him beat the $5.5MM he made on his soon-to-expire contract.

Other UFAs: F Sam Anas, F Tyler Bozak, D Dakota Joshua, G Charlie Lindgren, F Mackenzie MacEachern, F James Neal

Projected Cap Space

The Blues have just over $9MM in space below the $82.5MM Upper Limit and while they don’t have many roster spots to fill (likely a couple of forwards, two defensemen, and a goalie), they don’t have enough money to keep all of their pending UFAs around.  They also have to be mindful of big contracts on the horizon for Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas (both 2023 RFAs) while Ryan O’Reilly will need an extension as well at that time.  There’s enough room for GM Doug Armstrong to keep at least one of their UFAs in the fold but if he wants to keep more than one, he’ll need to find a way to free up some cap flexibility first.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Vancouver Canucks

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those who were eliminated in the first two rounds.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Canucks.

It was a season of change for Vancouver.  The big move to add Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Conor Garland last summer didn’t help, resulting in GM Jim Benning being shown the door with Patrik Allvin and Jim Rutherford coming over from Pittsburgh to lead the front office.  They underachieved under Travis Green, resulting in Bruce Boudreau taking over behind the bench and while they didn’t get to the playoffs, they were much more competitive in the second half.  Now, Allvin has some big files to tackle this summer as he looks to get the Canucks back into the playoff picture.

Free Up Long-Term Cap Flexibility

The Canucks have enough flexibility that they can navigate through this summer, keep the core intact, and give it another go next season.  But that doesn’t make the team any better and maintaining the status quo will only make it harder to make their cap situation work a year from now.  They have $48.5MM in commitments to ten players for 2023-24.  On the surface, that would appear to be manageable.  But J.T. Miller, Bo Horvat, and Brock Boeser aren’t in that group while Elias Pettersson will be extension-eligible at that time as well.  If those players all sign for market value, that really will limit them in terms of upgrading their roster.  That’s at the forefront of their offseason planning.

With that in mind, Allvin needs to find ways to create some extra space.  Tanner Pearson isn’t on a terrible contract at $3.25MM for two more years but they could save some money by replacing him with a cheaper piece, perhaps Russian free agent Andrei Kuzmenko who they’ve been linked to.  Jason Dickinson was brought in to solidify the third-line center spot, receiving a commensurate contract in the process, one that pays him $2.65MM for the next two seasons.  He didn’t fit in well in his first season with the Canucks, scoring just five goals in 62 games.  Finding a new home for one or both of them would give them a bit of wiggle room next summer when they’ll really feel the cap crunch.

To that end, one other route they could look to go is finding a taker for the final year of Micheal Ferland’s LTIR contract.  Yes, his $3.5MM AAV is an expiring deal next summer but if they can clear him out and stay out of using LTIR, they might be able to avoid the bonus overage penalty for 23-24 with Vasily Podkolzin and Nils Hoglander carrying sizable incentives in their contracts; Kuzmenko will likely have plenty as well if he winds up joining the Canucks.  They can manage the cap situation this summer but they will need to be aggressive in freeing up some flexibility from there.

Decide Miller And Horvat’s Future

Let’s dig into some of those players that are about to get a lot more expensive.  Miller is at the top of that list.  He’s coming off a breakout season that saw him lead the Canucks in scoring and narrowly miss out on reaching the 100-point plateau.  He also has spent a lot of time down the middle which will only increase his value.  He’s set to become an unrestricted free agent next summer and impact centers rarely become available.  Those that do get significant paydays and it’s safe to say Miller will be heading for one of those compared to the $5.25MM cap charge he’ll carry next season.  That expected contract is what had him in plenty of trade speculation leading up to the deadline.

Rutherford (who has made the rounds in the media lately) has made it clear in recent interviews that the team expects to be able to keep Miller in the fold.  Some of the recent comparable centers that have signed long-term deals (Mika Zibanejad, Tomas Hertl, and Logan Couture) all signed for $8MM or more while Sean Couturier came in just under that.  All received eight-year deals.  Miller’s production was higher than theirs this season but that was the only time he was over the point-per-game mark which should keep the AAV on a max-term extension somewhere in the range of those comparables.

If they go ahead and sign Miller to a deal like that, it’s going to make it harder to keep Horvat in the fold.  With Miller in the $8MM range and Pettersson needing a qualifying offer of $8.82MM in the 2024 offseason, can Vancouver really afford to have another high-priced pivot in Horvat?  While he won’t command the type of money their other two centers make, he’ll be in line for a raise on his $5.5MM AAV on his next deal and it wouldn’t be entirely shocking if he surpassed the $7MM mark.

While they may want to keep both of them in the fold, it will be very difficult for them to do so.  Accordingly, they’ll need to find out who is willing to stay and what the asking prices are and then decide whether to start shopping one now or keep both into the season in the hopes of getting back to the playoffs.  Some big decisions are on the horizon, to say the least.

Re-Sign Boeser

Most of Vancouver’s cap space this summer is heading for Boeser.  Unlike Pettersson, he’s subject to the old qualifying offer rules which means his salary from this season is his qualifying offer which puts the required tender at $7.5MM.  While the team certainly hoped that the winger would be able to emerge as a legitimate front-line winger, Boeser has yet to reach the 30-goal mark or record more than 56 points in a single season.  On the surface, that type of production for $7.5MM isn’t ideal.

If the Canucks tender Boeser, the winger can simply accept the offer and become UFA-eligible in 2023 or try his luck with salary arbitration and hope for a small bump up.  Neither is an ideal scenario for Vancouver as it would make him expensive and a rental all at the same time.  It doesn’t seem like there’s any chance they’d non-tender him but they could opt for club-elected arbitration to try to get him a little cheaper as the required offer would be 90% or $6.75MM.

Knowing that, Allvin will be wanting to try to get this one resolved sooner than later.  A long-term deal at or around this rate wouldn’t yield much in the way of savings but would ensure one of their top wingers will be around for a while.  If discussions on that front don’t go well, however, it’s reasonable to expect Boeser will be in trade speculation as well.

Revamp The Back End

On top of all of these decisions up front, Vancouver has some work to do on their defense as well.  Quinn Hughes has become a top offensive option and Ekman-Larsson is still a top-four rearguard even if he is no longer the player he was a few years ago with Arizona.  After that, however, things thin out quickly.

The Canucks don’t have much in the way of offensive options behind Hughes (Travis Dermott might help a little in this regard), nor do they have a lot of depth on the right side.  Tyler Myers is miscast in a top role while Luke Schenn is a capable depth blueliner but not someone who should be higher than the third pairing in an ideal situation.  That’s it for righties they can count on with Tucker Poolman’s availability being in question after missing basically half the season with recurring headaches and migraines.  There’s a case to be made that Vancouver needs a couple of top-four defensemen as a result although they’ll be hard-pressed to afford even one unless they can find a way to free up some short-term money for next season and some long-term money knowing what lies ahead in the 2023 summer.  Allvin certainly has his work cut out for him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Tampa Bay Lightning

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Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Next up is a look at the Lightning.

RFAs: F Tye Felhaber, F Simon Ryfors, F Otto Somppi, F Odeen Tufto, D Sean Day, D Alex Green, G Alexei Melnichuk

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Ondrej Palat — Entering his 30s now, the Czech is in line for the second payday of his career as his five-year, $26.5MM contract signed in 2017 expires this offseason. Palat remains a dominant playmaking winger on the top line of a team entering the dynasty conversation with a third consecutive Stanley Cup Finals appearance within reach. While injuries have somewhat artificially lowered his regular-season point totals, he’s remained remarkably consistent, notching between 15 and 20 goals for three consecutive seasons. It’s in the playoffs where Palat has done his best work, though. He’s really shone through on Tampa’s current run, scoring eight goals, six assists, and 14 points in 16 games, the best points-per-game rate in his playoff career. He was equally as impressive during Tampa’s first Cup run in 2020, scoring 11 goals in 25 games and playing 20:55 per game. He’s been leaned on heavily in the second and third rounds this year with Brayden Point’s injury, and his performance is only boosting the number he’ll receive on his next contract. Whether Palat becomes the latest player to fall victim to Tampa’s constant cap crunch remains to be seen.

F Nick Paul — The Trade Deadline acquisition from the Ottawa Senators has done it all for the Lightning in his short tenure, most notably with his two-goal performance to knock out the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 7 in the First Round. Paul’s shown his ability to stick out on an already talented team, as his defensive game (especially on the penalty kill) has fortified Tampa’s depth in a much-needed way. While a defensive specialist first and foremost, he did have 14 points down the stretch in 21 games for Tampa and he’s added seven points in 16 playoff games. If that’s a sign of what Paul can really produce on a good team, he should be a hot commodity in free agency among contenders who have a little more cap flexibility. In the same way that Yanni Gourde broke out and flourished in the same third-line center role, few would expect Tampa to be able to retain Paul’s services as a UFA. It’s never a good idea to count out general manager Julien BriseBois and his team’s expert cap management, though, and he’d continue to play an important depth role moving forward.

D Jan Rutta —  A latecomer to NHL action, making his NHL debut at 27, Rutta’s been used as the partner to Victor Hedman at even strength and gotten the job done. While his special teams minutes are nonexistent aside from a small amount of penalty-killing time, he’s been an important depth piece for Tampa, although maybe not to the degree of someone like Paul. He’s demonstrated that he can be reliable in limited minutes or with sheltered competition, making him an ideal, cheap complementary veteran for a team’s top players. If Rutta demands a raise on his current $1.3MM cap hit, though, it could be tough for the Lightning to keep him around. Teams are constantly willing to pay up for right-shot UFA defensemen, and Rutta could benefit financially from that market elsewhere.

Other UFAs: F Riley Nash, F Remi Elie, F Charles Hudon, F Anthony Richard, D Fredrik Claesson, D Darren Raddysh, G Maxime Lagace

Projected Cap Space

At first glance, things really don’t look good for the Lightning this offseason. CapFriendly already projects them in the red for this offseason with a -$2MM figure for their projected cap space. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story, as the potential LTIR relief from Brent Seabrook’s $6.785MM figure isn’t incorporated into that total. Tampa likely has closer to $4.5MM to work with this offseason, which, if they do plan on keeping Palat around, will likely all go to him (if he’ll take a discount).

It’s likely that the Lightning lose another key piece this offseason, whether it be due to Palat walking or the team trading away another player. Some eyes would look at Ryan McDonagh and his $6.75MM cap hit as juicy trade material to free up space, especially considering the team still has Mikhail Sergachev stuck behind Hedman and McDonagh on the depth chart. He still plays an incredibly important role on the team, though, and it would be a tough goodbye considering the team’s lack of real depth on the right side.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Focus: Toronto Maple Leafs

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Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Next up is a look at the Maple Leafs.

Key Restricted Free Agents

D Rasmus Sandin – Having barely played a full season’s worth of games in his career, Sandin has impressed in his young career, totaling 28 points in 88 career games on the backend for Toronto. The 2018 first-round pick can expect a reasonable raise over his $895K AAV on his previous contract, his ELC. The Maple Leafs are currently, like many teams, up against the salary cap ceiling, and will have some tough decisions to make as they try to bring back as much of their roster as they can, while improving too.

Sandin may be a casualty of Toronto’s moving parts, as the team already has Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin, Mark Giordano, and T.J. Brodie under contract for next season, all of whom, like Sandin, play the left side. It’s not that Sandin has disappointed or that his raise will be too much to handle, but dealing a 22-year-old defenseman with upside from a position of strength could provide tremendous value for Toronto.

D Timothy Liljegren – Much of what can be said about Sandin, can be said about Liljegren. A first-round pick of Toronto in 2017, Liljegren has spent parts of the last three seasons in the NHL, getting a bulk of his action, 61 games, this season. Liljegren hasn’t taken the world by storm, but has impressed and was a steady presence in Toronto’s defensive core this year, and like Sandin, played a role in helping the much-discussed Maple Leafs defense take a real step forward. Unlike Sandin, Liljegren plays the right side, a position Toronto only has one player signed for next season: Justin Holl. Even if Toronto re-signs Ilya Lyubushkin (see below), they would still need Lilejgren to round things out. Liljegren can expect a raise over his ELC salary, however, it should be one modest enough for Toronto to handle, especially given their need for right defense.

F Pierre Engvall – After two solid seasons to start his career, Engvall found himself having a breakout 2021-22 season for Toronto, setting career-highs in goals with 15, assists with 20, points with 35, and games played with 78. These numbers won’t blow anyone away compared to teammates Auston Matthews or Mitch Marner, but the massive Swedish winger was able to turn heads coming off of a two-year, $2.5MM contract that carried a $1.25MM cap hit, which he is likely now due a raise on and is eligible to go to arbitration for.

F Ondrej Kase – After signing as a free agent with Toronto last offseason, Kase finds himself once again as a RFA. Kase’s case should be interesting, as the winger signed a three-year, $7.8MM contract following the expiration of his ELC in 2018, then with the Anaheim Ducks. He would struggle greatly with injury after being traded to the Boston Bruins, playing in just nine games in a season and a half, and being allowed to walk as a free agent. Toronto would sign Kase for one year and $1.25MM, where he would again struggle with injury, but play to a more respectable 27 points in 50 games. With a rebound on his resume, Kase could be dealt a raise over his previous $1.25MM salary, perhaps closer to the $2.6MM cap hit he signed in 2018. However, given Toronto’s need to improve while balancing a tight cap, Kase could be a candidate to be let go as an RFA, just as he was last offseason.

Other RFAs: D Joseph Duszak, D Chad Krys, D Kristians Rubins, G Ian Scott

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Jack Campbell – When it comes to pending free agents for Toronto, no player has a bigger spotlight than Campbell. Toronto’s starting goaltender had an up and down season in 2021-22 after several strong seasons playing part-time for the Los Angeles Kings and the Maple Leafs. The 30-year-old’s first half was good enough to earn him All-Star honors, however, he struggled after the All-Star break and even missed time due to injury. Upon his return, Campbell was again stellar down the stretch before a less-than-impressive showing against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round of the playoffs.

After letting previous starting goaltender Frederik Andersen go in free agency last summer, eventually winning the Jennings Trophy with the Carolina Hurricanes this season, Toronto is still unsure about its future in net. If Campbell can routinely be the player he was in the first half of 2021-22, the answer for the Maple Leafs is clear, but his more recent struggles loom large. Those struggles also don’t change the fact that Campbell was an All-Star and has performed well for more than a few games, which should lead to a relatively large salary increase from the $1.65MM cap hit he had in 2021-22. Considering a limited goalie market and several teams having a need in net, Toronto may have to prioritize Campbell and find a number they are comfortable with, then make adjustments to handle the salary cap afterward.

D Ilya Lyubushkin – The aforementioned spotlight on Campbell as Toronto’s primary UFA seems to overshadow Lyubushkin’s impending free agency. A large, physical defender who Toronto acquired from the Arizona Coyotes along with Ryan Dzingel for a second-round pick and Nick Ritchie earlier this season, Lyubushkin fills a role Toronto, as mentioned, is short on–right defense. Arguably their best player at that position, the Maple Leafs will have to do their best to keep a player they know they can trust, otherwise, their options for a cost-controlled right defenseman may be hard to come by. Lyubushkin likely won’t see big money this offseason, but coming off of a one-year, $1.35MM contract, the 28-year-old will absolutely have his own leverage.

F Ilya Mikheyev – The 27-year-old Mikheyev may be as likely as anyone to depart from Toronto. After requesting a trade from the organization, Mikheyev stayed put and put up a career year, finding the back of the net 21 times, a career best, with a career-high 33 points in 53 games. Mikheyev will surely receive a raise over his $1.645MM cap hit the previous two seasons in Toronto, a luxury Toronto likely can’t afford, and though Mikheyev never was traded, his UFA status will give him the freedom to choose where he plays.

Other UFAs: F Colin Blackwell, F Brett Seney, D Teemu Kivihalme, G Michael Hutchinson, G Carter Hutton

Projected Cap Space:

The theme of this article, and likely of Toronto’s offseason, is limited cap space. The team needs to improve if it wants to have deep, sustained playoff success. However, they have just under $7.185MM in projected salary cap space for next season. That’s plenty to make an addition or two, but they first need to re-sign their starting goaltender, one of their top right defensemen, and give modest raises to two young defensemen in Liljegren and Sandin and a breakout forward in Engvall. At that point, an addition would be nearly impossible. All of this before trying to perhaps re-sign Kase and Mikheyev.

One bright spot for Toronto in this difficult situation is its depth. Going back to Sandin, the organization boasts several quality NHL left-defensemen, allowing them to potentially deal from this strength to add a cost-controlled option at a weaker position. The team also has several high-quality prospects that could be ready to make that jump to full-time NHL work, including Matthew Knies, Nicholas Robertson,  and Nicholas Abruzzese.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Focus: Vancouver Canucks

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Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Next up is a look at the Canucks.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Brock Boeser — Since turning pro in 2017, Boeser has turned into one of the more consistent scorers on the Canucks despite what most view as a stalled development process. Boeser has notched at least 45 points in his five full NHL seasons, and he’s scored 20 goals in four of those years as well. While Boeser had consistently stuck around 0.80 points per game from 2017-18 to 2020-21, though, his scoring pace numbers took a dip this year with 46 points in 71 games. A lot of that can be attributed to his (and the team’s) slow start under former head coach Travis Green, though, as evidenced by an eight-game pointless streak from November 11 to November 26, 2021. After the team replaced Green with Bruce Boudreau on December 6, 2021, Boeser finished the season with 36 points in those 49 games, much closer to his usual pace. While a below-average play-driver, Boeser remains a strong shooter and good power-play contributor. Coming off a three-year bridge deal that already awarded him $5.875MM per season, though, Boeser is likely only in line for a small raise given his weaker contract year performance (if he’s not dealt).

F Matthew Highmore — Vancouver acquired Highmore from the Blackhawks over a year ago in a one-for-one swap for Adam Gaudette. While not in possession of the largest stature, Highmore remains a good defensive specialist who can be of value in a fourth-line role. He managed to squeak into 46 games with the Canucks in 2021-22, though, notching 12 points (both career-highs). While a regular role in the lineup may not be carved out for him next season, the Canucks will likely be able to keep him around on a cheap, one-way deal. At 26 years old, Highmore should remain a solid option to slot into a fourth-line role for a few years to come.

F Juho Lammikko — Similar to Highmore, Lammikko was acquired for another overgrown prospect in the Canucks system. Unluckily for Highmore, though, he and Lammikko were both battling for similar roles, and Lammikko won in the eyes of the team. The Finnish forward was absent for just seven of Vancouver’s 82 games this season, playing in a career-high 75 games with a career-high seven goals and 15 points. While Highmore is a better defensive forward by most advanced metrics, Lammikko’s comfortability in the faceoff circle and at the center-ice position gave him the edge. He’s likely more in line for a seven-figure deal given his regular role in the lineup, but it’s not a guarantee.

Other RFAs: F William Lockwood, D Guillaume Brisebois, D Jack Rathbone, G Michael DiPietro

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Jaroslav Halak — Signed to a one-year deal last offseason to be the backup to Thatcher Demko, we may have seen the last NHL game in Halak’s career. Halak only played in 17 games this season as he battled injuries, COVID, and poor play (just a .902 save percentage on the year). While most of that was due to Demko’s excellence in goal, he was outshined at points by veteran third-stringer Spencer Martin, who posted a .950 mark in six games. Considering Martin is signed to a one-way contract next season, it’s a sign that the organization may rely on him as a cheap backup option. With that, plus a handful of young goalies in the system, there’s no longer an organizational fit for Halak. At 37 years old, he’s unlikely to receive much free agent interest.

F Alex Chiasson — The veteran forward earned a spot out of camp on a professional tryout contract and proceeded to give the Canucks a solid return on their investment in 2021-22. Chiasson continued to do what he’s done for his entire NHL career — give his team a decent amount of goals in a limited role. The 31-year-old lit the lamp 13 times this season, good enough for eighth on the team. However, with more young players within the organization pushing for roles, it’s unclear whether the organization will have much interest in retaining him. Given his continued limited usage and poor defensive numbers, he’s unlikely to command much on an extension or on the open market.

Other UFAs: F Brad Richardson, F Brandon Sutter, F Justin Bailey, F Phillip Di Giuseppe, F Sheldon Dries, F Nic Petan, F Sheldon Rempal, F John Stevens, D Brad Hunt, D Madison Bowey, D Noah Juulsen, D Ashton Sautner, D Devante Stephens

Projected Cap Space

The Canucks do have a few roster spots to fill without unlimited room. While the Boeser extension won’t take up all of their projected $11.5MM in cap space, the team is under pressure to move forward toward playoff contention, which will require a free agent acquisition or two. There’s also the matter of the 2023 offseason when both captain Bo Horvat and J.T. Miller will become unrestricted free agents. Moving Micheal Ferland’s $3.5MM cap hit back to LTIR will give Vancouver some more cushion, but that only lasts through this year.

Vancouver could look at moving on from Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s massive $7.2MM cap hit through 2027, although they’d need to give up something significant to dump the contract. It may be worth it, though, as it’s an anchor deal that could seriously inhibit the team from developing properly. Regardless, they do have a little bit of wiggle room entering next season, allowing them to at least be somewhat competitive in free agency.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract figures courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Winnipeg Jets

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those who were eliminated in the first two rounds.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Jets.

After being ousted by Montreal in the playoffs a year ago, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff shored up the back end with the hopes that would help Winnipeg get to that next level.  Instead, they underachieved this season, both with and without Paul Maurice behind the bench, and ultimately came up short of reaching the playoffs.  Cheveldayoff once again will have some work to do to try to get the Jets back into the postseason picture.

Hire A Head Coach

With Maurice surprisingly stepping aside midseason, Cheveldayoff made the logical choice to elevate Dave Lowry to the interim head coaching role.  It didn’t result in the type of improvement they were hoping for as Winnipeg’s points percentage under Lowry (.537) was basically identical to Maurice’s (.534).  In other words, the coaching change didn’t move the needle.

Lowry was the logical choice at the time in that the team wouldn’t have had the opportunity to interview assistants currently employed if they made a full-time hire midseason.  While a handful of assistants are still working at the moment, the team has been able to do a more comprehensive search (beyond Barry Trotz, who is basically singlehandedly holding up the market right now).

While Lowry is expected to interview for the full-time role, a new voice from outside the organization would make the most sense.  A new system from a new coach could be a significant enough change to avoid needing to necessarily make any core changes to the roster.  Cheveldayoff is thought of as one of the managers who tends to be patient with his rosters so it’s quite possible that a big addition behind the bench could be their biggest move of the summer.  But with free agency fast approaching (where coaches want to have their input), a new coach will need to be in place soon.

Re-Sign Dubois

When Cheveldayoff decided to shake up his core early in the 2020-21 season with the acquisition of Pierre-Luc Dubois for Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic, the 2022 offseason became a very important one for the Jets.  That corresponded with the end of Dubois’ contract as the 23-year-old is set to become a restricted free agent with arbitration eligibility this summer.  He has already gone through one contentious negotiation, one that ended with a trade request out of Columbus, and now, Dubois is two years away from being eligible to hit the open market.

He’s coming off a strong season, one that saw him reach a career-high in goals (28) while picking up 60 points.  That has him positioned to land more than the $6MM qualifying offer he’s owed but the question is how much higher should they be willing to go?  If they want to sign him to a long-term deal that buys up some UFA years (and Dubois is amenable to signing that type of contract), the AAV is likely to go beyond Kyle Connor’s $7.143MM price tag.  Do they want to go that high and reset the benchmark for their younger core?

On top of that, there is also a question of where Dubois best fits.  He was brought in to play center but he has spent a fair amount of time on the wing as well.  A long-term, big-money deal could potentially price them out of re-signing Mark Scheifele in a couple of years; does it make sense to do that for a player who may be better off as a winger than a center?

If it feels like there are a lot of questions for a pending restricted free agent, it’s because there are.  The route they go with Dubois will help shape their planning for beyond the 2022-23 campaign so getting this done sooner than later would be ideal.  Dubois is likely to file for an arbitration hearing if something isn’t worked out over the next six weeks so this is something that will need to be resolved by late July or early August at the latest.

Create Cap Flexibility

The Jets have around $18MM available this summer but have anywhere between seven and ten players to sign with that money.  A big chunk of that will go to Dubois which won’t leave a lot to spread around the rest of the openings.  Freeing up a bit of extra flexibility would certainly help Cheveldayoff to build out the rest of the roster without having to resort to signing several players for minimum-salary deals to stay cap compliant.  Forward depth has been problematic the last couple of years so being able to spend a bit more on their bottom six would help.

In order to do that, they will likely need to trade away from their back end as there really aren’t any viable non-core forwards that could be traded to free up space.  They have nearly $25MM tied up in their five most-expensive blueliners which is a lot.  Nate Schmidt didn’t have a great trade market a year ago and that likely hasn’t changed while Josh Morrissey and Neal Pionk aren’t likely to go anywhere.  That whittles it down to Brenden Dillon ($3.9MM through 2023-24) and Dylan DeMelo ($3MM through 2023-24); moving one of them to make a roster spot for a prospect like Ville Heinola or Dylan Samberg would give them some cap relief and also provide a chance for one of them to get an extended look in the NHL.  In a summer where many teams will be looking for some extra flexibility, any little bit helps.

Fill Backup Goalie Slot

Eric Comrie more or less got the backup goalie spot by default with the Jets due to his contract being at the league minimum.  To his credit, he did quite well this season, posting a .920 SV% and 2.58 GAA in 19 appearances, giving Winnipeg solid value from that backup spot.  But Comrie is set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer and after the year he had, he should be able to command more than $750K on the open market.

The Jets will once again need to shop towards the lower end of the market unless they can free up a few extra million in cap space but while Mikhail Berdin is on a one-way deal for next season, his performance with AHL Manitoba isn’t good enough to really contend for that spot so they will almost certainly have to look outside the organization if they can’t reach a new deal with Comrie.  Considering the opening day of free agency usually results in quite the game of musical chairs for netminders, this is something Cheveldayoff will need to address by July 13th.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Vegas Golden Knights

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Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Next up is a look at the Golden Knights

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Nicolas Roy – After a 2019 trade brought him to Vegas, Roy began showing flashes of skill and higher ability than he had shown in Carolina’s organization. Roy played 20 playoff games for the Golden Knights as they made a run to the 2020 Western Conference Final, scoring eight points, and finally established himself as a regular in 2020-21, getting into 50 regular-season games and 19 playoff games. Roy’s real breakout, though, came this past year, where he flew by his career highs in goals and points to finish with 15 goals and 39 points on the year. Roy was a consistent presence bringing both skill and physicality to a lineup ravaged by injuries, and his development was a major factor in keeping the Golden Knights’ playoff hopes alive until late in the season. Roy played on a $750k cap hit last year and is set to earn a decent raise on that number, although it remains to be seen if he will take a bridge contract or if the Golden Knights will choose to try to lock him up long-term.

D Nicolas Hague – Hague was the Golden Knights’ first-ever second-round pick and has developed nicely since he was drafted 34th overall in 2017. Hague’s big six-foot-six frame has always intrigued scouts and has helped him carve out a role in the NHL. Hague made his NHL debut in 2019-20, getting into 38 games and posting a healthy 11 points. Hague was a regular in 2020-21, skating in 52 games and scoring 17 points. While he battled injuries this past season and only featured in 52 out of the team’s 82 games, Hague’s future in Vegas looks bright. Hague played on a $791k cap hit this past season, and does not have arbitration rights. Given the cap constraints of the cup-or-bust Golden Knights, it seems like a bridge deal makes the most sense for both parties, although after the team signed fellow young blueliner Zach Whitecloud to an extension through 2027-2028, a similar long-term deal for Hague cannot be ruled out.

F Keegan Kolesar – Kolesar has been a great story for the Golden Knights. Kolesar was acquired from the Columbus Blue Jackets for a second-rounder in the 2017 draft, and disappointed in his first season in their system, spending 20 games playing for the Quad City Mallards of the ECHL. But since that point Kolesar has developed his game year after year and grown to be a regular bottom-sixer in Vegas. This past year was Kolesar’s second as an NHL regular, and he got into 77 games and posted 24 points. Kolesar was a dependable physical force in former coach Peter DeBoer’s lineup, but didn’t reach the offensive heights some may have expected. Kolesar is arbitration-eligible so it will be interesting to see which direction the team goes with his extension. The value true value of players like Kolesar can be sometimes difficult to quantify, so the raise Kolesar receives from his $725k cap hit will say a lot about his standing in Vegas’ organization.

Other RFA’s: F Brett Howden, F Jack Dugan, F Benjamin Jones, F Jake Leschyshyn, F Jonas Rondbjerg, D Daniil Miromanov, D Brayden Pachal, G Dylan Ferguson

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Reilly Smith – One of the Golden Knights’ original “misfits,” Smith has been a top-six staple in Vegas since the team first took the ice. Smith was originally acquired from the Florida Panthers at the team’s expansion draft and has 230 points in 321 games in Vegas. Smith’s best play has come in the playoffs, where he has 52 points in 66 games, including a phenomenal 22-point performance in the team’s 2018 run to the Stanley Cup Final. Smith had a difficult 2020-21, scoring only 25 points in 53 games, but he bounced back this year to post 38 points in his injury-limited 56-game season. That’s a 55-point pace, which is what can normally be expected from Smith, who posted between 53 and 60 points in his first three seasons in Vegas. Smith’s inability to stay healthy last year, when combined with his age (31), could be a potential threat to his free agent market. But ultimately his play on the ice will be the most important determining factor deciding what sort of contract he receives. Given his overall profile, a similar contract to the one Pittsburgh Penguins forward Bryan Rust signed could be a reasonable landing spot for both camps. The only question then, is whether or not the Golden Knights are in a position to afford Smith on that sort of deal.

F Mattias Janmark – Janmark was acquired from the Chicago Blackhawks at the 2021 trade deadline, and has fit decently well as a bottom-sixer in Vegas. He had some big performances, including a game-seven hat trick against the Minnesota Wild in 2021, but like many Golden Knights struggled with injuries and inconsistent play in 2021-22. Janmark’s average time on ice declined from around 17 minutes per game last season to under 14:21 in 2021-22. Janmark cost $2.25MM against the cap this season, and it’s fair to wonder if Vegas will be able to pay Janmark that sort of figure next season should they be interested in a reunion. Although it’s definitely possible he re-signs, Janmark will probably be able to receive more lucrative offers from other teams compared to what Vegas is in a position to offer.

Other UFA’s: D Jake Bischoff, F Gage Quinney

Projected Cap Space

The great lengths the Golden Knights have gone to stay under the salary cap have often made headlines, whether it be through their aggressive use of long-term injured reserve or attempt to trade a highly-paid player to a destination he had previously listed on his no-trade clause. This offseason figures to feature similar challenges for Vegas’ front office. The team has been built around a core of high-end, highly-paid veteran players, with Jack Eichel, Alex Pietrangelo, Mark Stone, and Max Pacioretty all commanding salaries at or above the $7MM mark. The Golden Knights enter the offseason with just $200K in cap space, meaning the team will likely need to get creative in order to have enough room to make their desired moves this summer.

The team could pursue a trade involving Evgenii Dadonov as they did in the past, or could choose to make a trade including a contract they can place on long-term injured reserve in order to create cap space, similar to what Tampa Bay’s front office did with the Tyler Johnson trade. Either way, they will need to do something, and how the Golden Knights’ offseason goes will largely be determined by what route they choose in order to create cap space. Could they trade bigger names such as Dadonov or even a William Karlsson? Or could they work around the margins, moving a player like Laurent Brossoit who, while still a solid backup option, is suboptimal on Vegas’ roster since he costs $2.325MM and Logan Thompson is waiting in the wings with a $766k cap hit.

Whatever route the Golden Knights ultimately choose to take, it’s their pursuit of cap space that will be the defining theme of their offseason.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Washington Capitals

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Free agency is now less than six weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Capitals.

Key Restricted Free Agents

G Ilya Samsonov – After a disappointing sophomore year, the Capitals were hoping that the 25-year-old would have a bounce-back campaign and stake his claim to the starting spot.  It didn’t happen.  Instead, Samsonov’s performance dipped once again with a save percentage of just .896 while his GAA jumped to 3.02.  In other words, he performed like a backup goalie.  Samsonov is owed a $2MM qualifying offer but is now arbitration-eligible which will help drive the price tag a little higher but it would be hard to see Washington offer a long-term deal.  He still will be RFA-eligible next summer so a one-year contract that gives him one more chance makes the most sense for both sides.

G Vitek Vanecek – Washington opted to trade a second-round pick to Seattle to get Vanecek back a week after they lost him in expansion and it’s a move that worked out well for them.  The 26-year-old had a near-repeat performance of his rookie year, posting an identical save percentage of .908 and improving slightly on his GAA from 2.69 to 2.67.  The qualifying offer for under $800K but it’s irrelevant as he’ll get at least three times that on his next deal.  Unlike Samsonov, Vanecek is a year away from UFA eligibility so they might be inclined to work on a multi-year pact with him which could push the price tag closer to the $3.5MM range.

Other RFAs: D Tobias Geisser, D Lucas Johansen, F Brett Leason, F Beck Malenstyn

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Justin Schultz – Schultz was a surprise signing in 2020 considering Washington had little cap space at the time which made it seem unlikely that they’d use a lot of it on one player.  His first year with them was good and he was able to hold down a spot in their top four, averaging just over 19 minutes a game.  However, things didn’t go as well this season.  His production dipped to 23 points in 74 games (a bit on the low side for an offensive defenseman) while he dipped below 17 minutes in ATOI as he was more sheltered; in the playoffs, that dipped to just over 15 minutes.  The Schultz of 2020-21 was close to being worth his $4MM AAV but this year’s version wasn’t near that price point.  Still just 31, there will be a market for him – especially as a right-shot defender – but he will be hard-pressed to land a raise in free agency.  A small dip appears likely.

F Marcus Johansson – It took a little while for Johansson to sign last summer, eventually agreeing to a one-year, $1.5MM deal with Seattle before making his way to Washington at the trade deadline for the second go-round with the team.  His per-game numbers were quite similar to his 2020-21 performance so it stands to reason that he should be able to command a similar price tag this time around.  Johansson’s positional versatility will help his market but at this point of his career, he’s more of a depth scorer than a top-six player like he was just a few years ago.

F Johan Larsson – Larsson has shown flashes of offensive skill in the past but it hasn’t yielded much production.  He had a bigger role while he was with Arizona and there was a corresponding increase in production as he was just over a half a point per game before being moved to the Capitals at the trade deadline.  Generally speaking, teams will want to go low on their fourth liners and role players to save some cap space but Larsson has a chance to be an exception as a decent checking center that can chip in a bit from the fourth line.  He should have a chance to at least come close to the $1.4MM AAV he had in each of the last two years.

Other UFAs: G Pheonix Copley, F Shane Gersich, D Matt Irwin, D Michal Kempny, F Brian Pinho

Projected Cap Space

Washington enters this offseason with just under $9MM in cap space and two big question marks with the injuries to Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson.  They could both be LTIR-bound to start the season but at least in Wilson’s case, he’ll be back after a couple of months.  With Backstrom, everything is on the table still with GM Brian MacLellan saying continuing to play through his injury would be unsustainable.  If they shut him down for a year with surgery, he could stay on LTIR throughout the year and the Capitals would have some flexibility.

Until they know one way or the other, they can’t plan for that to happen so for now, the bulk of that $9MM will need to go towards their two RFA goaltenders while they’ll also need to sign a defenseman or two with the leftover money.  Unless Backstrom is ruled out for the season, MacLellan won’t have much cap flexibility to work with this summer.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: New York Islanders

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those who were eliminated in the first two rounds.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Islanders.

This past season was a tough one for New York.  They were forced to start with a 13-game road trip to ensure their new arena was ready to go and got hit hard with COVID-related absences soon after.  That put them in too much of a hole to climb out of.  Despite making the Eastern Conference Final the previous two years, GM Lou Lamoriello opted for a coaching change, dismissing Barry Trotz and elevating Lane Lambert to the top role.  However, that can’t be the only thing they do this summer if they want to get back into contention; Lamoriello has a few other items on his to-do list in the coming months.

Add Scoring Help

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first.  Scoring has been an issue for this team for a while as they haven’t averaged three goals per game since the 2017-18 season.  Part of that can be attributed to Trotz’s defense-first system but there isn’t a lot of firepower on this team.  Only Brock Nelson and Anders Lee cracked the 20-goal plateau this season and over the final two months of the year, Mathew Barzal was regularly playing with Zach Parise and Oliver Wahlstrom; with all due respect to those players, that’s probably not the optimal combination for their most skilled forward.

Back at the trade deadline when the Isles were very quiet, Lamoriello opted not to make any changes, stating that his focus was on ‘hockey trades’ to bring in pieces that better fit his roster.

With the team having barely $12MM in cap space and several roster spots to fill with that money, they don’t have the financial flexibility to be aggressive bidders on the free agent market.  Accordingly, this is one of those situations where Lamoriello will make a hockey trade and move out an underachiever for someone that’s a better fit.  Wingers Josh Bailey (two years, $5MM AAV) and Anthony Beauvillier (two years, $4.15MM) are candidates to move from their existing forward group while veteran goaltender Semyon Varlamov (one year, $5MM) could also make sense if they find a trade that’s acceptable to the 34-year-old who has a 16-team no-trade clause.  Either way, whether it’s one of them moving or someone else, New York will need more offensive production to get back into the playoff picture.

Re-Sign Dobson

A good chunk of their cap space is going to be heading towards defenseman Noah Dobson who is set to become a restricted free agent this summer.  After his first two NHL seasons were relatively quiet, 2021-22 was a breakout year that allowed the 22-year-old to finish third on the team in points with 51 including 13 goals.  For perspective, the rest of their blueliners combined for 19.  Not surprisingly, Dobson’s ATOI jumped up by more than five minutes a night from his sophomore campaign.  In other words, he had quite the platform year.

While the Islanders would undoubtedly like to lock Dobson up on a long-term deal, that would go against Lamoriello’s tendencies as he has continually opted for bridge contracts for his core RFAs including Barzal and defenseman Ryan Pulock in recent years.  A short-term pact would also allow them some extra cap flexibility to try to upgrade their roster.  That makes the bridge deal the likeliest scenario.

The extremes between Dobson’s first two seasons and this one will make it tricky to find the right number and without arbitration eligibility, the Islanders hold more of the leverage.  A two-year deal with an AAV around the $3MM range which is more than what Pulock and Adam Pelech received on their second contracts while a third season could push it closer to the $4MM range.  Anything longer than that would walk Dobson to unrestricted free agency so it’s likely that three years is the maximum term that New York will want to go.  It may take a while – Dobson’s only leverage is to delay signing in the hopes of getting a better offer later – but eventually, the two sides will come together on a short-term pact.

Rebuild The Defense

Over the past few years, the NHL has started to shift towards a more mobile back end.  The Islanders have been one of the exceptions but now as they work to retool things under a new head coach, this is the right time to try to kickstart that change.

Zdeno Chara and Andy Greene have been successful defensemen in the league for quite a while but mobility has been an issue for both of them while their offensive games are also quite limited.  Both are pending unrestricted free agents and should be replaced with younger, better fits.  Sebastian Aho is more of a mobile blueliner but has struggled in his own end in limited NHL action.  He’s also a pending UFA and will need to be retained or replaced.  That’s three roster spots that they’ll need to try to fill within their limited cap space and in terms of in-house options, only Robin Salo might be able to push for a spot at the end of the roster.

It’s also worth noting that Scott Mayfield is a year away from UFA eligibility as well and will be eyeing a sizable raise from the $1.45MM cap hit he’s on now.  Any multi-year commitments they make this summer will offset how much they can give to Mayfield a year from now so that’s something Lamoriello will have to weigh as he navigates the open market this summer.

With Pelech, Pulock, and Dobson, the Isles have a strong core back end that is either signed or under club control for at least the next four years.  That’s a strong foundation to work with.  Now, improvements will need to be made at the bottom end within a very tight cap situation to start moving towards a younger, more mobile defensive group.

Work On Barzal Extension

Three years ago, the Islanders and Barzal eventually worked out a three-year bridge deal, one that will be expiring next summer.  That means once the calendar flips to the start of the 2022-23 league year in mid-July, the two sides will be able to work on a contract extension.  After the season, Barzal stated that he wants to work out a long-term contract and is hopeful to remain with New York for his full career, a proclamation that is certainly encouraging from the team’s standpoint.

Barzal will be owed a qualifying offer of $8.4MM which is 120% of his current AAV; that’s the lower number between it and his salary for next season ($10MM).  He’ll also have arbitration eligibility at that time.  That qualifying number, therefore, serves as the absolute minimum starting point for negotiations as if the 25-year-old doesn’t like what the long-term offers look like, he can simply accept the qualifier in 2023 and become UFA-eligible a year later.

The potential challenge here is that Barzal hasn’t exactly produced at a level that’s worthy of offering considerably more than the qualifier.  While he averaged more than a point per game in his rookie season, the most he has gotten since then is 62 points.  He’s undoubtedly their most gifted offensive player but in a more defensive environment under Trotz, his numbers have suffered.  If Barzal thinks things will open up under Lambert, it may make more sense for him to play out next season and see what happens from there knowing the qualifying offer will still be on the table at that time.  But if Lamoriello comes in with a long-term offer in the $9MM range, it might be enough to give Barzal a chance to play for the Islanders for a long time to come.

They may not get a deal done this summer but both sides seem likely to give it a shot.  It isn’t as pressing as some of the other elements that will affect their plans for next season but as the offseason goes on and things slow down, that would be an optimal time to get to work on Barzal’s file.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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