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Nikita Zadorov

Trade Review Poll: Which Off-Season Acquisition Will Have Greatest Impact?

November 8, 2020 at 12:08 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 14 Comments

As NHL teams have been forced to shuffle their rosters this off-season in response to the flat salary cap, this off-season has quietly been filled with meaningful trades. While free agent deals always seem to dominate the headlines, there have been at least 20 different trades that sent a notable player to a new locale. This started way back in August, even as the postseason was in full swing, as teams had to look ahead to next season as early as possible to get a jump on cap management. When 2020-21 kicks off, who will make the biggest impact on their new team?

August 25: In a trade that actually contained six players, the only name of immediate note was Kasperi Kapanen making his return to the Pittsburgh Penguins from the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs had initially acquired Kapanen from Pittsburgh in the Phil Kessel trade, but clearly the Penguins maintained interest in the player. Back with the team that drafted him, Kapanen will very likely slot in on the Penguins’ top line with Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel after scoring at a 40+ point full season pace in each of the last two seasons.

September 2: After many years, the Montreal Canadiens finally landed a reliable backup to Carey Price. In what amounted to a salary cap dump for the St. Louis Blues, the Habs acquired former starter Jake Allen. Although Allen played second fiddle to Jordan Binnington again this past season, he returned to form and outplayed the starter with an impressive .927 save percentage and 2.15 GAA. After signing an extension, Allen also has some job security in Montreal and may even have the added incentive of playing well in order to land the starting job for the Seattle Kraken.

September 11: After acquiring Kapanen, the Pittsburgh Penguins knew they needed to shed salary. They turned to former front office exec Bill Guerin, now the GM of the Minnesota Wild. The Wild landed forward Nick Bjugstad at next to no cost and Pittsburgh retained some salary as well. Back in the state where he made his name as a high school and college star, Bjugstad looks ready for a fresh start. In a forward group that is week down the middle and lacking in size, the big center is almost guaranteed a meaningful role. Bjugstad has been streaky and injury prone in his NHL career, but has also shown on multiple occasions that he has 50+ point upside playing a full season on a scoring line.

September 16: The Wild were right back at it a few days later, adding another new face to the forward corps. This time it cost them though. Minnesota acquired Marcus Johansson from the Buffalo Sabres in exchange for Eric Staal. Johansson provides great versatility as a player who can effectively play any forward position and in any situation. He has also scored at a half-point per-game pace or better for nine straight years with four different teams. Johansson should be able to step in and make an immediate impact. On the flip side, Staal provides the Sabres with a bona fide second line center and veteran leader that they have been sorely lacking. The experienced pivot may not have the positional versatility of Johansson, but is still a superior scoring threat at 36 and knows how to grind out wins in the regular season and postseason.

September 24: The Penguins make their third different deal in less than a month, sending veteran forward Patric Hornqvist to the Florida Panthers for defenseman Michael Matheson and forward Colton Sceviour. While Matheson and Hornqvist are both overpaid, they each still bring value to their new team. Matheson, likely to play a bottom-pair role for Pittsburgh, is a huge upgrade to the players the Penguins rolled out on their final pairing last season. A perennial 20+ point producer and sound defensive player, Matheson will not be asked to play the same minutes as he did in Florida, but will still make the same impact in the minutes he does get from Pittsburgh. Hornqvist meanwhile has not played in more than 70 games in over four years, but is quietly still the same 50-point player that he always has been, just on a per-game basis. An expert net front presence and power play asset, Hornqvist will likely play a major role for a Panthers team that lost two of its top scorers to free agency.

September 26: In what was one of the more obvious salary cap dumps in recent memory, the New York Rangers traded away veteran defenseman Marc Staal and a second-round pick in exchange for “future considerations”. The lucky team on the other side was the Detroit Red Wings, who made out like bandits with a nice draft selection and a new veteran leader for their blue line. A young, rebuilding team who has seen countless veterans leave, many of whom just this off-season, Detroit adds a new face with years of experience and leadership in Staal. While he is definitely in decline at 33, Staal is still a strong defensive presence, a plus player, and a penalty kill asset. Even without much offensive upside, Staal seems locked in for at least a top-four role in Detroit.

October 5: It wasn’t the strategy that anyone expected, but the San Jose Sharks decided to try to solve their issues in net by bringing in another struggling veteran to compete with their current struggling veteran. Devan Dubnyk, who comes over from the Minnesota Wild, is just a few years removed from being one of the top keepers in the game. However, this past season he was not even close to that level of play, recording an .890 save percentage and 3.35 GAA, albeit in limited showings. He was one of the few goalies who performed worse was San Jose’s existing starter, Martin Jones. Dubnyk has more experience and his peaks are much higher than Jones’, but he is also four years older and may have less of an ability to return to form. Perhaps the goal is simply to elevate Jones’ game by giving him an established backup to compete with, but there is always the possibility that Dubnyk emerges the victor.

October 6: Two teams on the fringes of being contenders, each with specific needs up front, made a big swap that will have ramification far beyond this next season. The Montreal Canadiens and Columbus Blue Jackets exchanged restricted free agent forwards Max Domi and Josh Anderson, each of whom will look to rebound and play a major role for their new teams. Domi fills a need at center for Columbus and hopes to use his new two-year extension to finally earn a long-term home after bouncing around early in his NHL career. A player who has shown immense scoring potential, including a 72-point season in 2018-19, Domi could be a major difference-maker on the second line for the Blue Jackets, who desperately need scoring depth. Anderson was not able to provide that this past season, missing most of the year due to injury and underperforming when healthy. However, he too had a breakout 2018-19 campaign, recording 27 goals and 47 points. The Canadiens believe that this is his long-term yearly value, as they did not hesitate to sign Anderson to a seven-year deal. Montreal needs size up front and they hope the 6’3″, 220-lb. Anderson can be an impact power forward for years to come.

October 7: The Ottawa Senators have a deep pipeline of goaltenders, but did not have anyone ready to be a starter this coming season and perhaps for a couple seasons after that. As a result, they ignored that depth and landed a starter for the present who doubles as a starter of the future in young Matt Murray. A streaky, but accomplished keeper, Murray came over from the Pittsburgh Penguins at the price of a second-round pick and a prospect, but will be well worth it if he can solidify the net for the Senators. They certainly seem to think he will, signing him to a long-term deal. At just 26, Murray already has just under 200 regular season appearances and over 50 postseason appearances, with a pair of Stanley Cups backed up by stellar stats.

The same day, the Nashville Predators and Minnesota Wild swapped forwards, as the Wild continued to address the center position while the Predators got younger and faster. Minnesota acquired veteran center Nick Bonino to anchor the team’s third line, as he has for so many other teams. A two-way pivot who is good for 30-40 points and solid defensive play, Bonino is a useful addition for the Wild. Going the other way was 22-year-old Luke Kunin, who recorded 31 points in 63 games in just his third pro season this year. The 2016 first-round pick has found success at every level and on every team he has played for. Aiming for a top-six role in Nashville, Kunin could be an impact player right away and for years to come.

October 8: The Ottawa Senators continued to add via trade when they swung a deal for physical defenseman Erik Gudbranson from the Anaheim Ducks. A player who has now been traded three times in two years, Gudbranson is either in demand or expendable. He could be both for the Sens, who will give him a top-four role and let him be the defensively responsible counter to their other younger, more offensively-inclined defenseman, then could look to trade him away before his contract expires at year’s end.

Another defenseman was sold off for a late pick the same day and that was Ryan Murray. Though Murray has had immense struggles with health over the years, he had been a good player for the Columbus Blue Jackets when active. However, the team’s depth forced them to deal him away and the New Jersey Devils were the lucky recipients. While Murray is still remembered for his puck-moving pedigree as the No. 2 overall pick in 2012, he has taken on more of a two-way, defensive prowess in the pros and is very solid (again, when healthy). The Devils will almost certainly give Murray top-four and perhaps even top-pair opportunities and if they are fortunate enough to have him for a full season, they could be looking at one of the best value additions of the off-season.

October 9: As the Vegas Golden Knights cleared space for the off-season’s biggest free agent signing, it meant letting go of a proven veteran asset. The Knights traded center Paul Stastny to the Winnipeg Jets, letting go of a valuable two-way forward. While Stastny had an off year this past season, he is just one year removed from recording 42 points in 50 games, a 69-point full season pace. And he finished the season prior to that with none other than the Jets, with an incredible performance of 13 points in 19 regular season games followed by 15 points in 17 postseason games. Stastny has already shown that he can be an elite producer with Winnipeg’s talented forward group and has tremendous upside in the coming season. Even at 34, don’t be surprised to see the all-around forward return to form and potentially even rival the 70-point seasons of his early playing days.

October 10: If Chicago Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman knows one thing, it’s how to make a trade involving Brandon Saad. Saad was traded away to the Colorado Avalanche in a four-player deal, marking the third time in five years that has been traded away or to the Blackhawks. The key return for Chicago was young defenseman Nikita Zadorov. In Saad, the Avalanche add a legitimate top-six forward who will help their depth, especially in light of the injuries suffered by some of their top players last season. Saad has recorded 47+ points four times in seven full NHL seasons and would have hit 47 on the nose again this past season based on an 82-game pace. A consistent scorer with great finish and possession ability, Saad is a nice get for the Avs. Meanwhile, as Chicago begins a rebuild they have new cornerstone piece on defense in the 6’6″, 235-lb. Zadorov. A big, physical defenseman, Zadorov can sit back and be a reliable defensive presence, freeing up other members of the Blackhawks’ budding new defense corps, like Ian Mitchell and Adam Boqvist, to play their offensive game.

The same day, the New Jersey Devils made another buy-low addition, landing Andreas Johnsson from the Toronto Maple Leafs. A young player who has already shown signs of 50+ point upside, Johnsson will now find consistent top-six time and power play opportunity in New Jersey, which should get him closer to that mark. In need of impact wingers for Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes but not willing to derail the rebuild with high-priced trades or contracts, the Devils land a young player at next to no trade cost who is signed for several more years at an affordable price. It is the perfect fit and should pan out.

October 12: The Colorado Avalanche were back in the headlines a couple of days later when they dealt two second-round picks to the New York Islanders for RFA defenseman Devon Toews. The Islanders needed cap space and dealt from a position of immense depth and talent on defense. Yet, Toews was critically underrated in New York and the team gave up a very talented player. The rich get richer in Colorado, as Toews joins another strong blue line, but this time will be locked in for a top-four role and will get his due attention on one of the league’s top contenders. Even with only two NHL seasons under his belt, Toews has proven to be productive, defensively sound, an asset in puck possession, and overall capable of big minutes and an every-situation role. Toews may not be the biggest name traded this off-season, but could wind up as one of the best acquisitions.

Amazingly, the very last trade made in the NHL so far this season came nearly a month ago. In the final push needed for the Vegas Golden Knights to sign Alex Pietrangelo, the team dealt top pair defenseman Nate Schmidt to the Vancouver Canucks in order to clear the necessary space. It was quite a sacrifice and one the Canucks are happy about. At the cost of a third-round pick, a team who had had a disastrous off-season that point landed a bona fide top pair defenseman who is signed long-term. Schmidt did it all for Vegas: team-leading minutes, 30+ points, defensive awareness, shot blocking,  possession, power play and penalty kill roles, and even locker room leadership. A player with a strong all-around game who is respected by teammates and opponents alike, Schmidt is a rare player to come across. Vancouver essentially lucked into him and it might just be the best trade of the off-season.

What do you think? Which trade acquisition will have the greatest impact in 2020-21 and beyond?

Mobile users, click here to vote.

Anaheim Ducks| Buffalo Sabres| Chicago Blackhawks| Colorado Avalanche| Columbus Blue Jackets| Detroit Red Wings| Florida Panthers| Free Agency| Injury| Minnesota Wild| Montreal Canadiens| NHL| Nashville Predators| New Jersey Devils| New York Islanders| New York Rangers| Ottawa Senators| Pittsburgh Penguins| Players| Polls| RFA| San Jose Sharks| Seattle| Seattle Kraken| St. Louis Blues| Toronto Maple Leafs| Vancouver Canucks| Vegas Golden Knights| Winnipeg Jets Adam Boqvist| Alex Pietrangelo| Andreas Johnsson| Brandon Saad| Carey Price| Colton Sceviour| Devan Dubnyk| Devon Toews| Eric Staal| Erik Gudbranson| Ian Mitchell| Jack Hughes| Jake Allen| Jake Guentzel| Jordan Binnington| Josh Anderson| Kasperi Kapanen| Luke Kunin| Marc Staal| Marcus Johansson| Martin Jones| Matt Murray (b. 1994)| Max Domi| Michael Matheson| Nate Schmidt| Nick Bjugstad| Nick Bonino| Nico Hischier| Nikita Zadorov| Patric Hornqvist| Paul Stastny| Phil Kessel| Salary Cap

14 comments

Colorado Avalanche Trade Nikita Zadorov

October 10, 2020 at 5:43 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 19 Comments

Who needs the free agent market anyway? The Colorado Avalanche have added to their forward group through trade, acquiring Brandon Saad from the Chicago Blackhawks. Sadd will come alongside prospect defenseman Dennis Gilbert in exchange for Nikita Zadorov and Anton Lindholm. The Blackhawks will also be retaining $1MM of Saad’s $6MM cap hit. Zadorov subsequently accepted his $3.2MM qualifying offer for 2020-21.

This is now the second time that Saad has been traded by Stan Bowman, who originally sent him to the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2015 only to reacquire him in 2017 (sending Artemi Panarin the other way). This time he’ll exit just a year away from unrestricted free agency as his six-year $36MM contract winds down.

It also comes after three somewhat disappointing seasons in Chicago, even if there’s not really a lot to complain about with the 27-year-old. Saad is an excellent player who racked up 62 goals and 115 points over those three years, but even more was expected of him after he reached the 30-goal and 50-point marks in Columbus.

Still, the other things that Saad brings to the table shouldn’t be overlooked. He is an excellent puck-retrieval option on the forecheck and protects it well once it is under his control. While he may not have the high-end playmaking ability that is required to be a real star in the NHL, he’ll be another weapon for the Avalanche to deploy in what is now one of the deepest attacks in the entire league.

Avalanche GM Joe Sakic touches on another important factor in the deal, telling Ryan S. Clark of The Athletic:

In Brandon we are acquiring a two-time Stanley Cup champion who brings veteran leadership and experience to our team. He is a proven goal scorer and at age 27, is in the prime of his career.

Saad had two Cups under his let by the time he was 23, averaging more than 20 minutes a game in the Blackhawks 2015 championship. That proven playoff experience is important to a team like Colorado that is attempting to get over the hump.

Not to be forgotten for Colorado is Gilbert, who is heading into the final year of his entry-level contract and played 21 games for the Blackhawks this season. The 2015 third-round pick spent three seasons at Notre Dame and though he doesn’t possess much offensive upside, will serve as some important depth for the Avalanche behind their star-studded blue line.

That blue line of course is losing Zadorov, who has been (rightly or wrongly) one of the faces of the Avalanche franchise since his acquisition in 2015. One of the main pieces in the trade that saw Ryan O’Reilly head to Buffalo, his explosive open-ice hits were immediately met with fanfare in Colorado.

Unfortunately, those hits weren’t surrounded by enough other skills to warrant the kind of ice time that he received early on. Zadorov never did put together much of an offensive game, scoring a career-high of 20 points in 2017-18 and was quickly passed by other more dynamic defensemen in the system. While he has remained a viable option, he was made a healthy scratch several times this season and was obviously headed towards a breakup with the organization

After accepting his $3.2MM qualifying off Zadorov will be well paid, and perhaps he can find a new level to his game. He is still only 25 and will certainly receive enough opportunity on a Blackhawks team that suddenly appears to be in something near rebuild-mode.

After letting Corey Crawford walk, Chicago is expected to go with a young tandem of Collin Delia and Malcolm Subban in net, and haven’t made any substantial additions to the roster through free agency. With just a few years left on the hefty contracts for Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith, a new reality is coming in Chicago.

Dan Milstein of Gold Star Hockey, Zadorov’s agent, actually broke the news on Twitter

Chicago Blackhawks| Colorado Avalanche| Newsstand Brandon Saad| Nikita Zadorov

19 comments

Central Notes: Jets’ Offseason, Zadorov, Bishop

August 30, 2020 at 1:00 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 6 Comments

The Winnipeg Jets have quite a few of their franchise players under contract for the next four years, so the team is in a win-now mode. With all the injuries and distractions the team suffered during the 2019-20 season, many were thrilled that head coach Paul Maurice and the Jets even managed to make the playoffs. However, having just won two of their last six playoff series in the last few years, Ken Wiebe of Sportsnet writes that the Jets must make changes to their roster to return to the top of the Central Conference.

One way to do that, suggests the scribe, would be for the team to use what remaining cap room that it has and spend on a top free agent defenseman. There will potentially be a few difference-makers available and with the salary cap leveling out at $81.5MM, the Jets could take advantage of several cap-strapped teams and bring in a big-name player.

There are two key possibilities, including St. Louis Blues’ Alex Pietrangelo and Boston Bruins’ Torey Krug. Both are looking for big paydays and may have to look outside the organization unless their respective teams are ready to move out salary to accommodate them. Wiebe notes that Pietrangelo might be a better fit for the Jets as he is right-handed and would be a good fit leading the team’s power play. Both players could be persuaded to sign in Winnipeg with big short-term offers.

  • Colorado Avalanche head coach Jared Bednar said that defenseman Nikita Zadorov is expected to play tonight in Game 4 of their series against the Dallas Stars, according to Adrian Dater of Colorado Hockey Now. The 6-foot-6, 235-pound blueliner didn’t play during the third period of Game 3 on Wednesday due to an undisclosed injury, but is expected to be ready now. The 25-year-old had a goal and an assist in that game, but it will be his physical presence the team will need if Colorado hopes to even the series against Dallas.
  •  Speaking of the Stars, Matthew DeFranks of the Dallas Morning News reports that there has been a slight change in the status of starting goaltender Ben Bishop. The netminder skated, but remains unfit to play. The team, however, hasn’t been forced to rush Bishop back as backup Anton Khudobin is playing quite well in his place. Khudobin has a 6-4 record with a 2.75 GAA and a .913 save percentage. “Dobby’s been great, but listen, Bish is unfit to play,” said coach Rick Bowness. “It’s as simple as that. I think we’ll just leave it right there.”

Boston Bruins| Colorado Avalanche| Dallas Stars| Injury| St. Louis Blues| Winnipeg Jets Alex Pietrangelo| Ben Bishop| Nikita Zadorov

6 comments

Injury Updates: Johansson, Zadorov, Francouz, Caggiula

November 14, 2019 at 7:20 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Getting consistent secondary scoring has been a concern for the Sabres as of late and they’ll be without one of the few players who had been providing it for a little bit.  Bill Hoppe of the Olean Times Herald reports that forward Marcus Johansson will miss at least the next three games due to an upper-body injury.  The 29-year-old currently sits tied for fifth in teams scoring with 10 points through his first 17 games, his highest point-per-game pace since 2016-17.  Head coach Ralph Krueger indicated that it’s a minor issue for Johansson and that he could return as soon as Tuesday night.  Considering they’ve been off since Saturday, Buffalo could backdate an IR placement for Johansson if they decide to recall someone from AHL Rochester.

Other injury notes from around the league:

  • It was only last week that Avalanche defenseman Nikita Zadorov was believed to be out week-to-week due to a broken jaw. However, head coach Jared Bednar told reporters, including Ryan S. Clark of The Athletic (Twitter link), that the blueliner will join up with the team as their road trip continues in Vancouver and that he could be available on Saturday night.  That would be a nice boost for a team that has recently been ravaged by injuries and finds themselves down both of their regular goalies for the time being although Colorado Hockey Now’s Adrian Dater relays (via Twitter) that Pavel Francouz is currently in concussion protocol but might only miss another day or two.
  • Blackhawks winger Drake Caggiula is in concussion protocol, notes Charlie Roumeliotis of NBC Sports Chicago. The team initially believed he was sick but that certainly doesn’t appear to be the case now.  This is Caggiula’s second concussion of 2019 as he also missed 13 games to one he sustained back in February.  There is no timetable for his return.

Buffalo Sabres| Chicago Blackhawks| Colorado Avalanche| Injury Drake Caggiula| Marcus Johansson| Nikita Zadorov| Pavel Francouz

0 comments

Nikita Zadorov Out ‘Week-To-Week’ With Broken Jaw

November 9, 2019 at 5:33 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

After taking a puck to the face Thursday night in the Colorado Avalanche’s game against the Nashville Predators, defenseman Nikita Zadorov has been listed as “week-to-week” after the blueliner underwent surgery to repair a broken jaw, according to ColoradoHockeyNow’s Adrian Dater.

Dater suggests it might be just a couple of weeks for the 6-foot-6 defenseman as he can eventually wear a mask and play through the injury. Regardless, it’s a big loss for a team that could use the 24-year-old’s size, although the blueliner has been scratched a few times already this season. Zadorov has appeared in 15 games this season, posting a goal, three points and 28 hits. He has broken the 200-hit barrier the previous two years, registering 278 in 2017-18 and 228 last season.

Bednar suggested that the team is still considering whether they intend to recall a defenseman to replace Zadorov in the meantime. The team does have six healthy defensemen, but adding a seventh makes the most sense with Conor Timmins and Calle Rosen as potential recalls.

Colorado Avalanche| Injury Calle Rosen| Conor Timmins| Nikita Zadorov

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Nikita Zadorov Out Indefinitely

November 8, 2019 at 2:10 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

The Colorado Avalanche have lost Nikita Zadorov indefinitely after he took a puck to the face. There is some concern that he suffered a broken jaw, but the team will not comment on the injury until he sees a doctor later today. Nathan MacKinnon, who also left last night’s game early, is expected to play tomorrow.

Zadorov hasn’t had an easy season to this point, sitting as a healthy scratch at times and seeing his ice time routinely fluctuate. The 24-year old is one of the most feared physical defensemen in the league, but is still inconsistent with the puck and can put his team in penalty trouble.

With the Avalanche now flush with exceptional young defensemen, it’s unclear what the future will really bring for Zadorov. His current contract carries a $3.2MM cap hit and will expire at the end of the year, making him a restricted free agent once again. Missing a chunk of the season won’t help his case in arbitration, if it even gets that far with Colorado.

The team wasted little time bringing a player up to replace Zadorov but instead of recalling a defenseman, forward Jayson Megna is on his way up.  Megna has played in four games with Colorado so far this season but has averaged just over five minutes per game.

Colorado Avalanche| Injury Nikita Zadorov

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Snapshots: Vanek, Hawryluk, Biro, Tavares

November 2, 2019 at 1:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

While Thomas Vanek remains unsigned, the veteran winger indicated to John Vogl of The Athletic (subscription required) that he did turn down one contract offer over the summer.  Instead, his preference is to wait and try to land with a contending team to take one last shot at a Stanley Cup title and then retire at the end of the season.  The 35-year-old is coming off a reasonable season offensively that saw him record 16 goals and 20 assists in 64 games with Detroit in 2018-19, numbers that suggest he can still contribute.  While he continues to skate in the hopes of getting another contract though, it appears he’s going to be very selective when it comes to where he’s willing to sign.

More from around the hockey world:

  • Panthers winger Jayce Hawryluk will miss at least a month due to an upper-body injury (likely to the shoulder), notes George Richards of The Athletic (Twitter link). The injury was sustained on a hit from Colorado’s Nikita Zadorov on Wednesday night.  Hawryluk has played in eight games with Florida so far this season, picking up a goal and two assists from the fourth line.  With Vincent Trocheck also believed to be unavailable, Florida is now down to 11 healthy forwards on their roster.
  • We won’t see much activity in college free agency until March but Bob Stauffer of 630 CHED in Edmonton reports (Twitter link) that undrafted Penn State winger Brandon Biro is attracting some NHL interest already. The 21-year-old senior had an impressive junior year with 40 points in 37 games and is off to an even better start in 2019-20 with five goals and seven helpers in just seven games.
  • While the Maple Leafs were hoping to have center John Tavares back tonight, that won’t be the case. However, Tavares told reporters, including TSN’s Mark Masters, (Twitter link) that he hasn’t suffered a setback.  Instead, with Toronto being off until Tuesday, the team doctors have decided that an extra three days of rest would be most beneficial for him.

Florida Panthers| Snapshots| Toronto Maple Leafs Jayce Hawryluk| John Tavares| Nikita Zadorov| Thomas Vanek

0 comments

Avalanche Notes: Rantanen, Annunen, Zadorov

September 16, 2019 at 5:02 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 2 Comments

Things are all quiet between the Colorado Avalanche and Mikko Rantanen according to Adrian Dater of Colorado Hockey Now, who tweets that there has been “little to no talk” over the last week. There was a prevailing thought in the hockey world that once Mitch Marner signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs there would be some kind of movement with the other restricted free agents, but that’s not necessarily the case in Colorado. Rantanen compares pretty well to Marner after scoring 171 points over the last two seasons, but it is hard to imagine Avalanche GM Joe Sakic was happy when he saw the six-year, $65MM deal come across the wire from Toronto.

Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado’s best player, is making averaging just $6.3MM over the final four years of his contract, making it tough to see the Avalanche hand out nearly twice that amount to Rantanen even with his strong performances to date. The 22-year old Finn will almost certainly become the team’s highest-paid player however if he signs any long-term deal, just how high the Avalanche are willing to go is unclear. Colorado has plenty of cap space for this season, but has to worry about potential extensions for Gabriel Landeskog, Philipp Grubauer and Cale Makar in two years.

  • They won’t have to worry about Justus Annunen for a while however, as the goaltending prospect has signed a two-year extension in Finland that keeps him under contract through 2021-22. While that doesn’t necessarily guarantee Annunen won’t be coming to North America during that time—the NHL does have a transfer agreement with Liiga—it certainly makes remaining overseas a strong possibility. The 19-year old was selected in the third round in 2018 and would see his draft rights expire on June 1, 2022. Annunen was brilliant in his first game for Karpat this season, stopping 23 of 25 shots for a win against HPK.
  • Nikita Zadorov escaped major injury when he left the ice early yesterday and head coach Jared Bednar told reporters including Ryan S. Clark of The Athletic that it is just a lower-body “tweak.” Zadorov is considered day-to-day. It is a big season for Zadorov as he approaches restricted free agency next summer, needing to prove that he can be a top-four option for this team over the long haul.

Colorado Avalanche| Free Agency| Injury Mikko Rantanen| Nikita Zadorov

2 comments

Arbitration Breakdown: Joel Edmundson & Jake McCabe

August 2, 2019 at 9:15 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 3 Comments

Salary arbitration season is already almost over, as hearings began on July 20th and extend through this Sunday, August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. Four such cases have gone all the way through the process this year, with four more left on the schedule. What goes on behind closed doors before the point of an arbitrator’s award? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

In our final breakdown this off-season, we’re doing something different and using two players who are both scheduled to go to hearing on Sunday: the St. Louis Blues’ Joel Edmundson and the Buffalo Sabres’ Jake McCabe. The pair of defensemen are remarkably similar and one would almost certainly end up as a comparable player in the other’s case if he was to settle in the next 36 hours or so. Even if that doesn’t happen, the two could certainly share some other comparables. Both Edmundson and McCabe fit within a rough criteria of between 220 and 320 career games played and .175 and .25 career points per game. The same margins were used to find potential shared comparables, but how the players may be used can differ by case. Here is a closer look:

Joel Edmundson

Career Statistics: 269 games played, 13 goals, 39 assists, 52 points, +18 rating, 18:13 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 64 games played, 2 goals, 9 assists, 11 points, +8 rating, 19:23 ATOI

Filing Numbers: Edmundson – One year, $4.2MM, Blues – One year, $2.3MM (midpoint: $3.25MM)

Jake McCabe

Career Statistics: 274 games played, 14 goals, 47 assists, 61 points, -19 rating, 19:26 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 59 games played, 4 goals, 10 assists, 14 points, -4 rating, 18:57 ATOI

Filing Numbers: McCabe – One year, $4.3MM, Sabres – One year, $1.95MM (midpoint: $3.125MM)

Potential Comparable Players

Nikita Zadorov (2019)
Career Statistics: 292 games played, 18 goals, 44 assists, 62 points, -16 rating, 18:14 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 70 games played, 7 goals, 7 assists, 14 points, +19 rating, 17:12 ATOI
Salary: $3.2MM

  • Edmundson’s Case: Team Side Comp – Although Zadorov’s new contract comes in slightly below the midpoint of Edmundson and the Blues, St. Louis will likely still use Zadorov as a comparable player. A similar size and style of player to Edmundson, Zadorov has more experience despite being two years younger. That alone is a strong argument. Although Zadorov’s additional career games played skew his numbers somewhat as a comparison, it doesn’t influence his career points per game, which is higher than Edmundson’s. Both players have very similar ice time numbers in their careers, including a drop-off in the platform. However, Zadorov has made the greater impact in terms of games played, as Edmundson has never surpassed 70 games in a season. Zadorov also has a major edge in the physical game. Edmundson’s camp will argue that he is the more adept shot blocker as well as shot taker and played a bigger role in the platform season, but this is a tough comp for the player side.
  • McCabe’s Case: Common Comp – McCabe has a much better case against Zadorov than Edmundson. First, he is more similar in both age and experience. Second, he has the superior career points per game by a notable margin. Zadorov’s salary is on the opposite side of the midpoint for McCabe’s case compared to Edmundson’s, so the player side will argue that the award belongs on the plus side. However, he could end up as a common comparable player, as the Sabres have a strong case that Zadorov’s age and experience along with far superior physical game offset McCabe’s slight offensive advantages. They can also not McCabe’s lack of availability, playing less than 60 games in each of the past two years while Zadorov has played 70+. Zadorov could be the defining case for McCabe.

Trevor van Riemsdyk (2018)
Career Statistics: 237 games played, 11 goals, 36 assists, 47 points, +21 rating, 18:08 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 79 games played, 3 goals, 13 assists, 16 points, +9 rating, 17:03 ATOI
Salary: $2.3MM

  • Edmundson’s Case: Player Side Comp – How well Edmundson contrasts himself with van Riemsdyk could make or break his case. Edmundson is younger and has more experience that van Riemsdyk did and is unquestionably a better physical force. However, van Riemsdyk has slightly better career scoring numbers and enjoyed a stronger platform season on the score sheet. The team side will counter with these points and, while they won’t succeed in driving Edmundson’s price down to van Riemsdyk’s $2.3MM, they could use him as a bench mark to show why they filed at that number.
  • McCabe’s Case: Player Side Comp – McCabe has age, experience, scoring, and physicality all on his side in a comparison with van Riemsdyk and his camp can use that to show that McCabe is worth well more than $2.3MM and closer to or exceeding Zadorov’s $3.2MM. Again, one weakness that the team side will counter with his health and availability, as van Riemsdyk played in 79 games in the platform season and has a full 82-game season on his resume, while McCabe has missed 50+ games over the past two seasons.

Andrej Sustr (2017)
Career Statistics: 274 games played, 8 goals, 48 assists, 56 points, +2 rating, 17:05 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 80 games played, 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points, -10 rating, 17:35 ATOI
Salary: $1.95MM

  • Edmundson’s Case: Player Side Comp – Edmundson’s camp could use the Sustr comp to further show that they are worthy of a higher award despite lacking offensive numbers. Edmundson is simply hands down the superior defensive player, with nearly 400 more career hits in fewer games, as well as substantial leads in blocked shots, plus/minus, and ice time. The fact that Sustr is the better offensive player, both career and platform, will come up though and a strong argument by the Blues could bring the price down.
  • McCabe’s Case: Player Side Comp – In the exact same amount of career games as Sustr had, McCabe has only five more points, but has almost 300 more hits and more than 100 more blocked shots. While McCabe’s camp has used offense as their main argument against other comparables, he is simply a much better defensive player than Sustr, as well as slightly better offensively. There’s also age and ice time arguments to be made. Buffalo will simply argue that the fact that Sustr shows up as a comp at $1.95MM justifies their filing number and should drive down the price of the award.

Prediction

When healthy, there is little question that McCabe is the best defenseman among this group. However, his health over the past couple of years is a concern. Whether or not the arbitrator thinks that it is a persuasive argument will play a key role in the award. Using van Riesmdyk and Sustr to boost their case, the player side should be at least be able to get close to Zadorov’s $3.2MM. However, it’s a toss up at that point between the two and the injury concerns could play a role. Leaving a narrow margin for an arbitrator who value blue line offense above all else, the likely range for an award is between $3-3.4MM. It thus stands to reason that McCabe has a good chance of receiving a favorable award.

Although he may be the bigger name, Edmundson’s odds are not as strong. It’s difficult to see an arbitrator agreeing that Edmundson is a superior player to Zadorov, whose salary comes in slightly below the midpoint of the case. That makes the chances fairly slim that he will receive a favorable award versus the Blues. As for the specific result, the van Riemsdyk comparison will be the key, as he is a more similar player results-wise. If Edmundson’s camp can express that Edmundson is not just slightly better, but much better and also younger and more experienced, they could wind up pushing $3MM. Expect the range to be somewhere around $2.6-3MM, though.

Arbitration| Buffalo Sabres| Injury| St. Louis Blues| Statistics Andrej Sustr| Jake McCabe| Joel Edmundson| Nikita Zadorov

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Nikita Zadorov Signs With Colorado Avalanche

July 5, 2019 at 2:20 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 1 Comment

The Colorado Avalanche have come to an agreement with restricted free agent Nikita Zadorov, signing him to a one-year contract according to agent Dan Milstein of Gold Star Hockey. Zadorov was eligible to file for arbitration before today’s deadline, but instead will re-up with the organization for one more year. A.J. Haefele of BSN Denver reports the deal will be for $3.2MM.

Zadorov, 24, was a huge part of the package that sent Ryan O’Reilly to the Buffalo Sabres in 2015, and has suited up for 225 games with the Avalanche since. An incredibly imposing figure on the ice, the 6’5″ 230-lbs defenseman is one of the most feared open ice hitters in the league and doesn’t hold back when he sees a chance. In those 225 games, Zadorov has totaled 712 hits for the Avalanche while adding 46 points.

It’s that offense that many hoped would come around when Buffalo selected Zadorov 16th overall in 2013, but he has never been able to add that side of his game. While he does have a good shot, his skill in breaking the puck out of his own zone is still lacking and he doesn’t have the playmaking upside to be involved on the powerplay. With the Avalanche adding top prospects Cale Makar and Bowen Byram in recent years, it will be imperative for Zadorov to improve his all-around play if he wants to remain a big part of the Colorado blue line. Already the team shipped Tyson Barrie out of town because of their strength on the back end, and still has at least eight capable NHL defenders on the roster.

Zadorov though now represents the third-highest paid defenseman on the team, and will be an important part early on in the season. Ian Cole and Erik Johnson are both doubtful to be ready for the start of the season due to injury, meaning that the big left-handed defender may get more ice time to show just how much of an impact he can make.

Arbitration| Colorado Avalanche Nikita Zadorov

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