Minnesota Wild Targeting J.T. Miller
Things are not alright in Vancouver amidst another disappointing start. The Canucks sit seventh in the Pacific Division with just three wins in their past ten games. While the front office and ownership have promised (at least publicly) to stay the course and not overreact to their current turmoil, NHL competitors are taking notice and lining up for a piece of a potential fire sale.
At the front of the line are the Minnesota Wild. The Central Division leaders are enjoying a strong start, but are not without holes in the lineup, one of them being another top-six scorer. While The Province’s Ben Kuzma notes that Minnesota native Brock Boeser would seem to be the ideal acquisition, he reports that the Wild have in fact called on J.T. Miller. While Miller has flashed ability at every stop, including New York and Tampa, he has been at his best since landing with the Canucks. Miller can do it all from the center position; a balanced scorer, fierce checker, and face-off ace, Miller has developed into a well-rounded top-six pivot. He even plays big minutes for the Canucks, too. The Wild have taken notice and clearly feel that he could be an asset, perhaps even on the top line.
Kicking the tires is far from finalizing a deal though and the Canucks won’t let Miller go easily. Miller is signed through next season and at a $5.25MM AAV that is very palatable for a player who has scored at a near point-per-game pace since arriving in Vancouver. Kuzma suspects that a package from Minnesota would likely include Kevin Fiala, which could be attractive to the Canucks. Fiala and the Wild seem to be at odds about his role on the team following a difficult negotiation this summer and the 25-year-old forward could benefit from a change of scenery. The Canucks would get younger by swapping Miller for Fiala, but will also maintain their goal of avoiding a rebuild by adding another talented, proven forward in return. That won’t be it either, as the Canucks will be able to command some building blocks as well. Their first-round pick and top prospects Marco Rossi and Matt Boldy are likely off the board, but a second-round and/or an exciting young name like Calen Addison or Adam Beckman could be floated instead.
Again, a deal is nowhere close but when interest is able to be confirmed like this, there is typically more than just smoke. The Canucks and Wild seem like good trade partners, the question is whether Vancouver is willing and if so whether Minnesota can meet their demands. Miller could be a game-changer for a Wild team in position to make a deep run this season.
Snapshots: Three Stars, Fiala, Brooks
The NHL has released their Three Stars for last week, headlined by Calgary Flames forward Johnny Gaudreau who takes home the top spot. Gaudreau put up four goals and seven points in four games last week, including two game-winning tallies. After a strong bounce-back campaign in 2020-21, the diminutive forward has upped his game once again and now has 22 points in 19 contests this season.
Second and third go to Ilya Samsonov and Cale Makar respectively, with each young player putting up a pair of outstanding performances. Samsonov didn’t allow a single goal in his two starts for the Washington Capitals, posting a pair of shutouts and raising his save percentage to .924 on the season. Makar meanwhile had five points in two games for the Colorado Avalanche, something that has become relatively routine for the young defenseman. Through 113 career games, Makar now has 107 points.
- When Kevin Fiala and the Minnesota Wild settled on a one-year contract just a day ahead of his arbitration hearing this offseason, it raised some questions about his long-term future with the team. Other key forwards like Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek were being locked up well into the future, while the 25-year-old Fiala was now scheduled to be a free agent once again in 2022 after this $5.1MM contract expired. That’s when the Wild have some huge buyout penalties hitting the cap, making it challenging to go through the uncertainty of an arbitration process again with a player like Fiala. Yesterday, Michael Russo of The Athletic wrote about Fiala’s future with the team, suggesting it is “hard to see Fiala being long for this organization.” Today, Jeff Marek and Elliotte Friedman discuss it on Sportsnet’s 32 Thoughts podcast, and note that though there is some smoke, Wild GM Bill Guerin has never been one into a decision.
- It’s been several days since Adam Brooks was claimed off waivers by the Vegas Golden Knights, but he had not yet made his debut for the club due to some immigration issues that needed to be resolved. Resolved they’ve now been, and Brooks will be in the lineup for the Golden Knights this evening, head coach Pete DeBoer told reporters including David Schoen of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Max Pacioretty, who is nearing a return, is on the trip but not yet quite ready to play tonight.
Central Notes: Parayko, Fiala, Nylander
Players signed until the end of the 2021-22 season are eligible for contract extensions and there have been some notable ones handed out already. One player that can get that next deal is Blues defenseman Colton Parayko but Tom Timmermann of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests it’s unlikely that such a move would happen anytime soon. While St. Louis would undoubtedly love to keep the 28-year-old around, Parayko is coming off a tough injury-plagued year and accordingly, his value is far from its peak. Waiting to see if he can bounce back is the more prudent move from Parayko’s end as doing so would allow him to get a bigger contract in the end. He’s carrying a cap hit of $5.5MM for next season and he’ll need to get back to being a top-pairing performer if he’s going to get a sizable raise next summer.
More from the Central:
- Wild GM Bill Guerin acknowledged to reporters including Sarah MacLellan of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune that while he would have loved to sign winger Kevin Fiala to a long-term deal, it just wasn’t feasible to do so. He did indicate that he’s still hopeful that he’ll be able to get a multi-year pact in place with the 25-year-old for 2022-23 and beyond although with the buyout charges they have on the books beyond next season, that could be a little more complicated. Fiala avoided arbitration earlier this week with a one-year, $5.1MM contract that will also serve as his qualifying offer next offseason.
- Blackhawks winger Alex Nylander told Charlie Roumeliotis of NBC Sports Chicago that he has fully recovered from the knee injury that cost him all of last season. Nylander couldn’t even pinpoint when the injury occurred (or if there was a specific incident, even) other than that it was in the bubble but he has resumed skating without the issues that arose when he was gearing up for last season that eventually resulted in the surgery. Nylander accepted his qualifying offer on Monday for just over $874K.
Minnesota Wild Finally Have Salary Cap Certainty For 2021-22
One of the offseason’s biggest stories has undoubtedly been the salary cap situation of the Minnesota Wild. General manager Bill Guerin was faced with an extremely tricky deck of cards this summer – the team’s three best forwards were all restricted free agents and needed new contracts. With a frozen salary cap and increasing market value, it was never going to be easy for the Wild to continue icing a contending team in 2021-22.
However, with Kevin Fiala inking a one-year $5.1MM contract today to stay in Minnesota, the team finally has some clarity in how they’ll be rolling their lineup in the near future. What’s for certain now is that the team will have enough financial flexibility to have Kirill Kaprizov on the roster, at least for next season. With Fiala signed and a full roster, the Wild have $13.1MM in cap space with only Kaprizov left to sign.
But, it seems with every passing day that Kaprizov’s eventual signing price will likely be astronomical, and on a short-term deal as well. The likely outcome here by most accounts is Kaprizov signing a deal equal to or shorter than four seasons, likely between $7-10MM. It’s certainly doable for 2021-22, but the main concerns have never been just about next year.
Moving forward, it’ll be even tougher for Minnesota to stay cap-compliant. The promise of a slightly increasing Upper Limit helps somewhat, but not by much. While 2022-23 sees the combined $9MM cap hits of Victor Rask and Alex Goligoski vanish, they’ll also need a new deal for Fiala, gritty winger Jordan Greenway, and promising netminder Kaapo Kahkonen. The total cap hit increase of those deals, plus an $8MM increase in cap penalties due to the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise buyouts, make a scenario in which all three players are retained nearly impossible, even with some team-friendly deals.
The deal Fiala signed is likely very similar to what he would have been awarded had the case gone to arbitration. It doesn’t exactly show long-term commitment to the relationship between player and team, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see another transaction involving Fiala within the next calendar year.
While cost certainty helps create a clearer picture for the upcoming 2021-22 season, the long-term landscape still remains treacherous for the up-and-coming squad.
All salary cap figures from CapFriendly.com
2021 Arbitration Tracker
Originally published on August 5
The dates for the upcoming arbitration hearings have been set, with the first three scheduled for August 11. Hearings will continue through August 26 in this condensed offseason. It is important to note that the CBA agreement last year changed the rules for arbitration, so that once a hearing begins, teams are no longer allowed to negotiate with the player in question.
The full schedule is:
August 11
Adam Pelech (New York Islanders) – Settled, 8 years, $5.75MM AAV
Michael McNiven (Montreal Canadiens) – Settled, 1 year, $750K/$100K AAV (two-way)
Jakub Vrana (Detroit Red Wings) – Player filing: $5.7MM – Team filing: $3.65MM – Settled, 3 years, $5.25MM AAV
August 12
Victor Mete (Ottawa Senators) – Settled, 1 year, $1.2MM AAV
August 13
Neal Pionk (Winnipeg Jets) – Settled, 4 years, $5.875MM AAV
August 14
Vince Dunn (Seattle Kraken) – Settled, 2 years, $4.0MM AAV
Zach Sanford (St. Louis Blues) – Settled, 1 year, $2.0MM AAV
August 16
Adin Hill (San Jose Sharks) – Settled, 2 years, $2.175MM AAV
Ross Colton (Tampa Bay Lightning) – Settled, 2 years, $1.125MM AAV
August 17
Kevin Fiala (Minnesota Wild) – Player filing: $6.25MM – Team filing: $4.0MM – Settled, 1 year, $5.1MM AAV
August 18
Juuse Saros (Nashville Predators) – Settled, 4 years, $5.0MM AAV
August 20
Dante Fabbro (Nashville Predators) – Settled, 2 years, $2.4MM AAV
Jason Dickinson (Vancouver Canucks) – Settled, 3 years, $2.65MM AAV
August 21
Adam Erne (Detroit Red Wings) – Settled, 2 years, $2.1MM AAV
Dennis Gilbert (Colorado Avalanche) – Settled, 1 year, $750K/$160K AAV (two-way)
August 23
Zach Aston-Reese (Pittsburgh Penguins) – Settled, 1 year, $1.725MM AAV
August 26
Andrew Copp (Winnipeg Jets) – Settled, 1 year, $3.64MM AAV
Nikita Zadorov (Calgary Flames) – Settled, 1 year, $3.75MM AAV
Travis Sanheim (Philadelphia Flyers) – Settled, 2 years, $4.675MM AAV
Minnesota Wild, Kevin Fiala Avoid Arbitration
With an arbitration hearing just a day away, the Minnesota Wild and Kevin Fiala have come to an agreement. The two sides have settled on a one-year, $5.1MM contract almost exactly the midpoint between their two arbitration filings. Fiala had asked for a one-year, $6.25MM contract, while the team had countered with a $4MM deal. The two sides will no longer need the hearing tomorrow.
The 25-year-old Fiala will still be a restricted free agent next summer, but will require a qualifying offer equal to this $5.1MM salary in order for the Wild to retain his rights. He will also be arbitration-eligible once again, meaning a raise is actually a possibility. It was a bet on himself to sign a one-year deal, after becoming one of the most important players on the Wild roster. Over the past two seasons, Fiala has 43 goals and 94 points in 114 games while continuing to post outstanding possession numbers. Though some of that offensive success is due to the deployment the team has offered, there’s no doubting Fiala’s raw talent.
It was Paul Fenton, the oft-ridiculed former GM of the Wild who brought Fiala to Minnesota in a trade for Mikael Granlund a little over two years ago. In terms of offensive contribution, Fiala has been much more effective, yet the two will now head into next season earning almost the same salary. Granlund signed a new four-year, $20MM deal with the Nashville Predators this offseason to continue his strong two-way play, while Fiala will be relied on as the “game-breaker” that Fenton called him when defending the move.
With Kirill Kaprizov still to sign, the Wild have plenty of work to do, but they can now be certain in their financial structure. The team still has more than $13MM in cap space this season, and though things will get tight in the future when the harsh penalties from Zach Parise and Ryan Suter‘s buyouts kick in, they at least know they can fit everyone in for 2021-22. A long-term deal for Fiala would have made that more difficult, as buying out UFA years would have sent the average annual value of Fiala’s deal skyrocketing. Despite only turning 25 last month, Fiala has five seasons under his belt already, meaning he’ll be an unrestricted free agent after the 2022-23 season.
Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet broke the news on Twitter
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Kevin Fiala, Minnesota Wild Exchange Arbitration Figures
The next arbitration hearing is scheduled for Tuesday between the Minnesota Wild and restricted free agent Kevin Fiala. The two sides have now submitted figures, though they can continue to negotiate a contract up until the moment the hearing starts. According to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, Fiala has filed for $6.25MM while the Wild have submitted for $4MM. Michael Russo of The Athletic notes that Fiala actually filed for a one-year term, meaning he will still be a restricted free agent next season.
It is important to remember that the two filings are meant to be the absolute limits of a negotiation, and arbitration almost always results in a contract somewhere in the middle. The midpoint of these two filings would be a $5.125MM cap hit for Fiala next season.
Given that it was the Wild who elected salary arbitration in this case, the term of the award was actually up to Fiala. He could have chosen a two-year deal to get him to unrestricted free agency, but by filing for just one he has essentially bet on himself. If say, the two sides can’t agree on a multi-year deal before Tuesday and a $5MM contract is awarded, Fiala will be owed that much as a qualifying offer again next offseason. He would then be able to file for arbitration again and earn a raise, still getting to the UFA market at the age of 26. The only real risk in this method is if the Wild decide not to qualify him for whatever reason, but unless there is a major injury or huge decline in play, that would be unlikely.
In fact, Fiala is likely worthy of a much more expensive contract after his recent performances. In 2019-20 he truly broke out, scoring 23 goals and 54 points in just 64 games for the Wild. At that point, he was still averaging just over 15 minutes a game. This year he was given more ice time and more responsibility and rewarded the Minnesota coaching staff with 20 goals and 40 points in 50 games. He posted outstanding possession statistics, even if they were helped by strong offensive deployment, and represented an outstanding one-two punch with rookie Kirill Kaprizov.
The question of course, as it will be for every contract the Wild sign over the next few years, is how they can fit in Fiala with such a huge cap penalty coming. Minnesota will face a $14.74MM cap charge in both 2023-24 and 2024-25 thanks to the buyouts of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, making it very difficult to fit in the rest of the roster. Given the team still has Kaprizov to sign, it’s hard to know exactly how much room they’ll have. Perhaps that’s why a one-year arbitration award for Fiala isn’t the worst outcome, with the two sides restarting negotiations a year from now.
Central Notes: Fiala, Wallstedt, Coyotes Coaching Staff
The Wild have made some progress in discussions with RFA winger Kevin Fiala, reports Michael Russo of The Athletic (subscription link). While the 25-year-old didn’t file for arbitration, Minnesota opted to elect to take him to a hearing earlier this month, a move that teams don’t often make as it gives Fiala the right to elect an award that would walk him to unrestricted free agency if he wanted. However, it ensures that he’ll be signed long before training camp. Fiala is coming off a 20-goal, 40-point season that has him well-positioned to earn a sizable raise on the $3MM AAV he had on his bridge deal. Submissions to the arbitrator will be required on Sunday with the hearing scheduled for a week from today so they’ll need to work quickly to get something done.
More from the Central:
- Still with Minnesota, Wild prospect Jesper Wallstedt has opted to stay with Lulea of the SHL, notes Aftonbladet’s Jonathan Nilsson. The 18-year-old was the 20th-overall pick in last month’s draft which gives them the right to assign him elsewhere as entry-level deals for first-round picks supersede existing contracts overseas. However, some more time in the SHL certainly makes sense for Wallstedt, who posted a 2.23 GAA with a .908 SV% in Sweden’s top division last season.
- The Coyotes are expected to retain assistant coaches Phil Housley, Cory Stillman, and Corey Schwab, reports Craig Morgan of AZ Coyotes Insider (Twitter link). They will, however, reportedly add to their coaching staff as Morgan adds that Mario Duhamel will also be added. Duhamel, 46, had been an associate coach with OHL Ottawa previously working alongside new Arizona bench boss Andre Tourigny.
Central Notes: Copp, Pleau, Fiala
The Jets are a team that projects to be quite tight to the Upper Limit of the salary cap. Per CapFriendly, they have just over $6MM in cap room which amounts to roughly $11.35MM once Bryan Little’s LTIR is factored in but they still have to re-sign defenseman Neal Pionk and center Andrew Copp as well, both of whom have arbitration hearings later this month. Accordingly, Scott Billeck of the Winnipeg Sun suggests that with the strong platform season Copp had – one that saw him notch career highs in goals (15), assists (24), and points (39) – could wind up pushing him out of town. GM Kevin Cheveldayoff spent nearly $10MM last month to shore up their back end with the acquisitions of Nate Schmidt and Brenden Dillon but if Pionk and Copp wind up getting more than they anticipated, it certainly could force their hand into trading someone and selling high on Copp would certainly make some sense for Winnipeg.
More from the Central:
- The Coyotes have added some experience to their front office as they announced the hiring of Larry Pleau as Senior Advisor to the General Manager. The 74-year-old spent the last 23 years with St. Louis with the first 12 of those being as their GM and the last 11 in an advisory role similar to the one he will have with Arizona. GM Bill Armstrong certainly has a long-standing connection with Pleau having worked under him for 16 seasons with the Blues before coming to the desert last year.
- The Wild’s decision to elect salary arbitration for winger Kevin Fiala earlier this week raised some eyebrows as it’s a move that’s rarely made. Michael Russo of The Athletic posits (subscription link) that the team wants to ensure Fiala is at training camp at the start which wasn’t the case two years ago when talks dragged out longer than either side would have liked. While a deal will be done within the next two weeks – his hearing is August 17th – there is certainly some risk that Minnesota is taking as Fiala could simply elect for a two-year award to take him to UFA eligibility in 2023, a move that certainly would hurt his trade value as well if it gets to that point.
Wild Elect Salary Arbitration For Kevin Fiala
Minnesota and winger Kevin Fiala will be heading to salary arbitration after all. While he wasn’t among the players to file for a hearing yesterday, the Wild announced (Twitter link) that they have elected to take Fiala to a hearing.
The 25-year-old is coming off a strong season that saw him notch 20 goals and 20 assists in 50 games, good for second on the team in scoring behind fellow RFA winger Kirill Kaprizov. It was a strong follow up to his first full season with Minnesota in 2019-20 where he had 23 goals and 31 helpers in 64 games which has certainly bolstered Fiala’s value heading into these contract talks. He was qualified at $3.5MM but stands to earn considerably more on his next contract.
There are a handful of different rules in place for club-elected versus player-elected arbitration. The first is that no matter what the ruling is, Minnesota can’t walk away. As Fiala was filed on, he gets to determine the term of the contract. That’s certainly notable as he’s two years away from UFA eligibility and as a result of this decision from the Wild, he could simply opt to go to a hearing and elect the two-year term that would take him to the open market in 2023. Not that it would happen here but Minnesota cannot offer less than Fiala’s salary from last season; teams that are filed on can go slightly lower.
Fiala will now be added to the list of players that will have an arbitration hearing scheduled from August 11th through the 26th.