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Snapshots: Fortin, Flames, Team Europe

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When the Chicago Blackhawks invited Alexandre Fortin to prospect camp this summer, even they didn’t expect to sign him to a three-year entry level contract just a few weeks later. It’s a huge step for the twice-undrafted forward from the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies of the QMJHL.

The 19-year old is the nephew of former NHL goaltender Jean-Sebastien Giguere and never did really blow away scouts during his junior years.  But now, in Hawks rookie camp he turned enough heads to be kept around when the pro camp started, and then enough for the Hawks to invest in him.  As assistant coach Kevin Dineen says in Chris Kuc’s latest Chicago Tribune article:

He’s a smart, cerebral kid who has a nice offensive skill set that he’s been able to show here early. He’s off to a real good start and he’s working his way in to trying to find a way into one of our exhibition games.

The Hawks have found overlooked players before, most notably with last year’s Calder trophy winner Artemi Panarin, who, while on the hockey world’s radar, was never believed to be able to step into a top-line, all-star role right away. With Fortin, perhaps they found another late-bloomer who they can shape into an offensive dynamo.

  • The Flames have decided to send four players back to their individual WHL teams today; the group includes Brayden Burke, Aaron Hyman, Matthew Phillips and Nick Schneider. Only Phillips was actually drafted by the club (166th overall this year).  The team has also cut Dennis Kravchenko from the NHL camp, and invited him to their AHL camp (which he accepted).  Kravchenko has scored 61 points in 68 games the past two seasons while playing for UMass-Amherst in the NCAA. An undersized winger, he’s trying to follow the path of Johnny Gaudreau and prove offense is more important than stature.
  • Team Europe, the overwhelming underdogs of the World Cup, have now advanced to the final series following an overtime win against Team Sweden. Tomas Tatar, the young flashy Red Wings forward scored twice, including the winner, to send home the defensive powerhouse.  The makeshift squad will take on Canada in the best-of-three final series, starting Tuesday night.

Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Wennberg, DeHaan, Zibanejad

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Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we continue in the Metro.

Alexander Wennberg (Columbus) – Wennberg was the Blue Jackets first-round pick in 2013, selected 14th overall. He debuted in the NHL during the 2014-15 season and finished with 20 points in 68 contests. He bumped his production up significantly in year two, recording 40 points in 69 games and flashing top-six potential.

Wennberg is more playmaker than goal scorer as his career 4-to-1 assist-to-goal ratio suggests. Washington’s Marcus Johansson posted similar career numbers through the expiration of his ELC with 33 goals and 62 assists in 183 contests; good for a points-per-game rate of 0.52. Johansson would sign a two-year contract worth $4MM total following the 2012-13 campaign.

The career production numbers between the two pivots should look similar given Wennberg tallies 40-plus points in close to a full slate of games in 2016-17 and would therefore be looking at a bridge deal right around the $2MM mark annually. Given Johansson’s second contract will be four years old, inflation could take that figure closer to $2.5MM per year. A longer term would appear unlikely as the Jackets will still have several inflated contracts on the books, including those of Scott Hartnell, Nick Foligno, Jack Johnson and Brandon Dubinsky.

Calvin de Haan (New York Islanders) – Now 25, de Haan is now at the age many defensemen peak in terms of production. Originally the 12th overall selection in the 2009 draft, de Haan has already established himself as one of the Islanders best defenders and will once again fill a spot in the club’s top-four. If he can stay healthy for a full slate of games and perhaps contribute a touch more in the offensive end, de Haan could set himself up for a nice raise on the $1.97MM AAV his current contract calls for.

Teammate Travis Hamonic, drafted by the Islanders in the second-round in 2008, is a bit more prolific offensively but should help us gauge de Haan’s potential value as a top-four defender. Upon the expiration of his ELC, Hamonic signed a seven-year, $27MM deal with an AAV of $3.857MM. By that time, Hamonic was already averaging better than 22 minutes of ice time and 0.33 points-per-game. If the two parties explore a long-term arrangement, it’s likely de Haan can point to Hamonic’s deal as a comparable.

Mika Zibanejad (New York Rangers) – As part of their overall team commitment to get younger and quicker this summer, the Rangers acquired the 23-year-old pivot from Ottawa in exchange for fellow center, Derick Brassard. Zibanejad, the Senators first-round pick in 2011, sixth overall, has steadily improved his offensive production since debuting as a regular during the strike-shortened 2012-13 campaign. Last season was Zibanejad’s best, with the Swede compiling 21 goals and 51 points in 81 contests.

A player with a similar pedigree, former high first-round choice and relatively consistent point-producer, Nazem Kadri, inked a six-year extension worth $27MM in April and that deal should serve as a reasonable target for Zibanejad. Kadri has averaged 0.59 points-per-game over the three seasons prior to his extension – 134 points in 227 games. Zibanejad, meanwhile, has averaged 0.57 points-per-contest the last three years – 130 points in 230 games.

Zibanejad is entering the final season of the two-year bridge deal he signed with Ottawa, paying the five-year veteran $2.625MM per season. A repeat of his 2015-16 performance this upcoming season should give Zibanejad a good chance to match the level of Kadri’s extension. But, if Kadri takes the next step in his development and makes a push for the 60-point threshold, he could see his value escalate to $5MM and up per season.

Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Johansen, Parayko, Teravainen

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Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we finish with the Central Division and move to the Metro.

Ryan Johansen (Nashville) – In Ryan Johansen, the Predators finally have that elusive #1 center they have lacked since the organization’s inception nearly two decades ago. In a rare “hockey trade” that benefited both parties, Nashville acquired Johansen from Columbus in exchange for Seth Jones, a potential franchise defenseman and something the Blue Jackets have sorely needed.

Johansen has tallied at least 60 points in each of the last three seasons and scored a career-best 71 as a 22-year-old during the 2014-15 campaign. On the downside, his goal scoring output has decreased from a career-high 33 in 2013-14 to 26 the following season and to just 14 in 2015-16. That’s likely the direct result of a shooting percentage of just 7.6%, a figure which was more than five points below the combined shooting percentage the two previous seasons. Simply converting shots at his normal rate would have resulted in a 24 – 25 goal campaign.

The Predators have done a marvelous job of locking up their core pieces to bargain long-term deals. Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, Craig Smith and Mattias Ekholm have all recently inked extensions with Nashville at AAVs below what each player could have received on the open market. The trade-off for higher salaries during RFA years is cost-certainty and buying out free agent years below market value. Expect Nashville to employ the same strategy with Johansen.

Sean Monahan and Nathan MacKinnon have each established themselves as 60-point producers and received extensions with an AAV in excess of $6MM. Aleksander Barkov, coming off a career-best 59-point season, signed a six-year, $35.4MM deal with Florida. All three, however, were coming off their ELCs while Johansen is entering the final season of his second contract. That means any long-term deal would buy out more free agent seasons and typically that tends to be more expensive. Based on the comparable deals and his proximity to free agency, a long-term contract for Johansen could well approach or even reach $7MM annually.

Colton Parayko (St. Louis) – Parayko came out of nowhere to earn a regular job on the Blues blue line and posted a solid scoring line of 9-24=33 in 79 contests as a rookie. He boasts a hard shot from the point and tremendous size at 6-foot-6 and 226 pounds. Currently, Parayko is skating in the World Cup as a member of Team North America, flashing his abilities on the international stage.

With only a single season of NHL experience, gauging Parayko’s potential value is difficult. However, if he approximates his 2015-16 production levels this upcoming season, the four-year, $19.5MM contract awarded to Sami Vatanen by the Ducks could prove to be a reasonable comparable.

Vatanen posted campaigns of 37 and 38 points in 2014-15 and 2015-16 respectively before inking his current deal. Like Parayko, Vatanen is also a right-handed defenseman, which is more difficult to find than their counterparts on the left side.

St. Louis could counter with Ryan Ellis as a comparable. Ellis signed a five-year, $12.5MM contract in October of 2014 following a 27-point campaign with the Predators. But most would argue Ellis is worth more than that AAV and consequently Parayko would be too. It’s also possible the Blues would prefer to go with a bridge contract with a lower AAV than Parayko would be able to get on a long-term deal.

Teuvo Teravainen (Carolina) – The Hurricanes took advantage of Chicago’s salary cap woes and in exchange for agreeing to take on the final season of Bryan Bickell’s $4MM-a-year-deal, were rewarded with the skilled Teravainen. Much was expected from the young Finn following the 2014-15 postseason that saw Teravainen record 10 points in 18 games as the Hawks won their third Stanley Cup in six seasons. While a 35-point campaign as a 21-year-old is solid, Teravainen’s skill suggests there is even more scoring potential.

It makes sense to stick with the Hurricanes when looking for a comparable since doing so offers insight to how the club values their RFAs. Earlier this summer, Carolina agreed to a six-year, $24MM extension with Swedish center Victor Rask. Rask was coming off a breakout campaign which saw the 23-year-old pivot post career-highs in both goals (21) and assists (27). More importantly, his first NHL season mirrored Teravainen’s in terms of production as Rask netted 11 goals and 33 points in 80 games for the Canes in 2014-15. If Teravainen follows the same path and boosts his offensive production into the 45-point range, a contract similar to that of Rask’s would seem a safe bet.

Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Panarin, Faksa, Niederreiter

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Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. We move on to the Central Division.

Artemi Panarin (Chicago) – The 2015-16 Calder Trophy recipient can set himself up for a monster payday with another 30-goal, 70-point campaign in 2016-17. Panarin surprised many by quickly acclimating to North America and putting up huge offensive numbers right away. He kicked off the season with a goal in game one against the Rangers and remained consistent throughout the campaign finishing just one month – February – with fewer than 10 points.

The first name that comes to mind as a potential comparable is Vladimir Tarasenko, who netted 37 goals and totaled 73 points before receiving an eight-year extension from St. Louis with an AAV of $7.5MM. Another possibility would be Filip Forsberg, who averaged 30 goals and nearly 64 points in each of the two full seasons prior to inking his new $6MM-a-year deal.

As they do every summer, seemingly, Chicago will be confronted with a cap crunch and will be looking to try to save as much money as possible on Panarin’s next contract. A trade is always a possibility, as they did with Brandon Saad, but it’s hard to imagine the Hawks dealing away two dynamic young talents just two years apart. Best guess is Chicago pushes for something closer to $6MM per on a long term deal and Panarin’s camp asking for something closer to $7MM.

Radek Faksa (Dallas) – Ordinarily, a five-goal, 12-point rookie debut wouldn’t generate much interest but with another season to go before reaching restricted free agency, and all of the offensive firepower the Stars have accumulated, it’s possible the big and skilled Faksa enjoys a real breakout campaign in 2016-17. Faksa is 22, set to turn 23 in January. He’s at an age where players tend to hit their stride and with well over 100 professional games on his resume, Faksa now has invaluable experience to go along with his skill.

The other factor that will make this a potentially interesting negotiation is the Stars cap situation. The team should have around $25MM in available space but with only 11 players signed for 2017-18, the Stars will have to be judicious with their spending. A big sophomore campaign for Faksa will complicate matters for the Stars and their ability to replace other veteran players likely to depart after the season.

At this point, the best guess is likely a bridge deal for Faksa. Even presuming a productive 2016-17 season, he won’t have much of a track record to bank on. Depending on the quality of Faksa’s 2016-17 campaign, a contract comparable to the one-year deals inked by Zemgus Girgensons or Mikhail Grigorenko – for $1.15MM and $1.3MM respectively – could be a fair compromise. Girgensons had a solid 2014-15 season, scoring 15 goals and 30 points before struggling to an 18-point year in 2015-16. Grigorenko posted a scoring line of 6-21=27 for Colorado this past season as a 22-year-old.

If Faksa enjoys a better platform year, then perhaps the two-year, $5.5MM pact J.T. Miller and the Rangers settled on this summer is something the Czech center can shoot for. Miller bested his previous career highs in goals by 12 and points by 20 during the 2015-16 campaign and earned roughly a 300% bump in pay as a result. Faksa has the talent and may get the opportunity in Dallas to post that same type of breakout performance for the Stars.

Nino Niederreiter (Minnesota) – Niederreiter has quietly put together consecutive 20-goal campaigns and established a career best with 43 points in 2015-16 for the Minnesota Wild. He is entering the final season of a two-year, bridge contract that comes with an AAV of $2.67MM.

Niederreiter’s previous two seasons compare favorably to those of New York Rangers winger Chris Kreider. Kreider has tallied back-to-back 21-goal campaigns and combined for 89 points over that span. The big Swiss winger, on the other hand, has totaled 44 goals and 80 points over the last two years. Kreider finished his two-year bridge deal – AAV of $2.475 – and signed a four-year contract worth $18.5MM. That might represent a solid blue print for Niederreiter’s next pact.

Snapshots: Sedins, Gaudreau, Strome, Dvorak

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They may turn 36-years-old later this month and certainly they are in the twilight of their tremendous careers, but that doesn’t mean the Sedin twins, Daniel and Henrik, are thinking about retiring any time soon. Still with two years remaining on the matching deals they have with the Canucks – at an AAV of $7MM – the Sedins are adamant that there will be one more contract in their shared future, according to Mark Spector of Sportsnet. Whether that contract is with the Canucks or not remains to be seen. As Henrik said:

“If they don’t want us there, then we’ve got to make a decision. We’re not going to retire because we don’t want to play for another team.”

The likelihood the twins retire as Canucks likely depends on a couple of factors. First, how effective will they be at age 38 and two, will Vancouver have embraced a full rebuild by that point. Not many players remain particularly effective into their late 30’s but the Sedins have shown to be an exception. Last year, each twin tallied an average of 0.74 points-per-game, which prorates to roughly 60 over an 82-game schedule. For their careers, Henrik has slightly outproduced his brother, 0.83 to 0.82 points-per-game. The Sedins are still producing reasonably close to their career scoring rates.

Still, in two seasons, Henrik could have more than 1,300 NHL games under his belt and Daniel can reach that plateau if he plays virtually game over the next couple of years. That’s a lot of hockey and doesn’t even count postseason or international contests.

It’s also quite possible the Canucks will have little interest in keeping the Sedins beyond the 2017-18 campaign, as Spector points out. Vancouver doesn’t look to be a playoff team this season and many of their better players are also in the later stages of their careers. The club does have some high-end prospects coming – Brock Boeser and Olli Juolevi, for example – but their system isn’t particularly deep in quality talent. It’s likely their top prospects will just be breaking into the league by 2018-19 and while it’s never a bad thing to have veteran mentors the caliber of the Sedins, the organization may simply want to move in another direction by that point.

The Sedins may well be among the most interesting free agents on the 2018 open market.

More from around the NHL:

  • Perhaps the top remaining unsigned restricted free agent, Johnny Gaudreau, is still no closer to a resolution of his status, and as Eric Francis reports, the contract situation has been “painful,” for the Flames young star. “Honestly, throughout the whole summer and contract situation it’s been so painful because every day it’s something that’s on my mind.” Fortunately for Gaudreau, the World Cup has provided the Team North America participant with a distraction from the situation. “So this tourney has helped me not worry about that. I can just play hockey, have fun, be part of the team and hang out with teammates. It’s been the easiest part of my summer without the contract situation there.” It would be shocking if a new accord between the two sides wasn’t reached soon after the World Cup. Both sides clearly want to get a deal done; it’s just a matter of closing the remaining gap and finding common ground. At least playing in the World Cup will help keep Gaudreau sharp and ready for the regular season, assuming he misses all or part of training camp.
  • John Chayka made a number of moves this summer designed to help the Coyotes get back to the playoffs after a four year absence. However, two players drafted before the league’s youngest GM assumed his position may play critical roles if the team is to qualify for the postseason tournament. Writing for the Coyotes team website, Dave Vest reports that while Chayka is pleased with the overall depth of the team’s prospect pool, expectations are specifically high for 2015 first-round pick Dylan Strome and 2014 second-round choice Christian Dvorak. Strome could position himself to earn one of the team’s top two center positions with a good training camp. In fact, their current depth chart on Roster Resource already lists him as the top center, although he’d likely be best suited playing more protected minutes. Still, Chayka has made it clear to Strome and the other prospects what he expects to see at the team’s prospect camp. “He’s just a real smart, cerebral player who does a lot of good things. It’s not like he has to be hitting the scoresheet every night to make an impact. We want him to play a 200-foot game and look after all the details that we know he learned from last year’s camp. We’re looking for consistency. It’s one thing to have one good game but you have to come in each day and follow that up consistently. For Dylan, and for all of our players, it’s a matter of making an impact in the game consistently. That’s what we’re looking for.” 

 

Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Pearson, Donskoi, Horvat, Gudbranson

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Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated the negotiation process.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we finish up in the Pacific Division.

Tanner Pearson (Los Angeles) – Pearson is a solid, two-way winger who has seen a fair amount of action on a line with Jeff Carter and Tyler Toffoli affectionately referred to as “That 70’s Line.” He tallied 15 goals and 36 points in 2015-16 and has a scoring rate of 0.43 Pts/Game in 146 career contests. Pearson is currently slated to make $1.4MM in the second and final season of a two-year deal.

Pearson’s career production is similar to that of two recent RFA signees: J.T. Miller of the Rangers and Cody Eakin of the Stars. Miller posted career-best totals of 22 goals, 21 assists and 43 points in 2015-16 and has a career scoring rate of 0.52 Pts/Game. Eakin has a career Pts/Game rate of 0.45 and has scored at least 35 points in each of the last three seasons as Dallas’ third center.

Statistically, Pearson would seem to match up well with Eakin meaning another season of 35 – 40 points could line him up to receive something similar to the four-year, $15.4MM $3.875MM AAV) deal Eakin is set to play under beginning this season. But if the Kings and Pearson can’t get a long-term deal done, it’s possible the two-year, $5.5MM ($2.75MM AAV) bridge contract of Miller works as a comparable.

Joonas Donskoi (San Jose) – Donskoi was a surprisingly steady producer for the Sharks and played a key role in helping San Jose reach the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in franchise history in 2015-16. Given his first taste of North American pro hockey, the Finnish winger contributed 36 points in 76 contests and added another 12 points in the playoffs. Donskoi seemed to find chemistry with Logan Couture this past season and if given another opportunity to play on the skilled pivot’s wing, he could cross the 40-point plateau in 2016-17.

Production-wise, Donskoi would appear to be close enough to Pearson’s level that the Miller and Eakin contracts should serve as fair comparisons. Another possible comparable who would appear to set the floor of Donskoi’s expectations is Michael Raffl, who after seasons of 28 and 31 points, respectively, inked a three-year, $7.05MM ($2.35MM AAV) pact with the Flyers. Both started their professional careers in Europe and jumped to the NHL in their mid-20’s. If Donskoi’s production takes a step back from his rookie level, he could be looking at a new deal in the same range as Raffl’s.

Bo Horvat (Vancouver) – After a solid debut campaign as a 19-year-old rookie two years ago with the Canucks, Horvat bumped his production up from 25 points to 40 points as a sophomore in 2016-17. He has the skill and ability to improve his numbers even further in his third season if given an opportunity for top-six ice time.

If Horvat can take the next step to 50 points or so, a new contract could be similar to that of Nick Bjugstad’s in Florida. After netting 38 points in his first full campaign, Bjugstad tallied 43 in 201-15 and was rewarded with a six-year, $24.6MM deal which took effect upon the expiration of his ELC. Both players are versatile enough to play up and down the lineup and fill a variety of roles. The Canucks will have to be frugal, however, as they already have more than $52MM tied up in 14 players for 2017-18 leaving roughly $20MM or so – depending on where the cap ceiling falls – to re-sign several key RFAs. It’s possible they push for a less expensive bridge deal as a result.

Erik Gudbranson (Vancouver) – The Canucks took some criticism when they dealt 19-year-old Jared McCann, the team’s first-round pick in 2014, and two draft choices for Gudbranson this past May. It’s not that Gudbranson isn’t a good player; it’s more that the Canucks aren’t likely to be a playoff squad in 2016-17 and shouldn’t be sacrificing controllable young talent for a player who is set to get pretty expensive.

Gudbranson inked a one-year pact worth $3.5MM soon after the trade and will again be a RFA after the upcoming season. With five years of NHL experience already under his belt, Gudbranson will be just two seasons away from unrestricted free agency following the 2016-17 campaign. That means any long-term extension is likely going to buy out multiple free agent seasons.

Gudbranson is a physical, defense-first blue liner, who doesn’t contribute much offense. His single-season career-high in points scored is just 13. Obviously Gudbranson will be looking for a raise on his $3.5MM salary. One potential comparable for Gudbranson is Adam Larsson, who signed a six-year, $25MM extension and like the Vancouver defender is known more for his defense than his offense. But Larsson’s deal took effect on the conclusion of his ELC and only bought out a single free agent year.

A closer comparable may be Canadiens defenseman Alexei Emelin, who is also a defense-first blue liner with a career high in points of just 17. He is in the midst of a four-year deal with an AAV of $4.1MM.

With most teams favoring mobile, puck-moving defenders over tough, physical defensive defenseman like Gudbranson, it will be interesting to see what value they place on the big blue liner.

 

Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Pacific Division, Part I

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Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated the negotiation process.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we start in the Pacific Division.

Anthony Duclair (Arizona) – “The Duke” is coming off a solid rookie season, scoring 20 goals and posting 44 points in 81 games for the Coyotes. Arizona acquired Duclair and a couple of draft picks from the New York Rangers at the 2015 deadline in the Keith Yandle deal. Duclair, considered a first-round talent in his draft year, tumbled into the third-round following an injury-shortened 2014-15 campaign in the QMJHL.

Another 20+ goal campaign could propel Duclair’s earning potential into the $4MM range annually. Mike Hoffman, who has scored 27 and 29 goals respectively the last two seasons, inked a four-year deal with an AAV of more than $5MM per season. On the heels of back-to-back 21-goal campaigns, Chris Kreider also landed a four-year pact, his worth $18.5MM in total. Kreider was coming off his second contract, Hoffman his ELC. Based on experience, Hoffman would be the better comparable but the goal-scoring numbers are likely to match up better with Kreider. Either way, if Duclair can match or exceed his 2015-16 production this season, a $4MM+ AAV on a new contract would be realistic.

Sam Bennett (Calgary) – Bennett, the fourth overall selection in the 2014 entry draft, posted an 18-18=36 scoring line as a rookie with the Flames in 2015-16, while playing the entire campaign as a 19-year-old. Along with the aforementioned Gaudreau and Sean Monahan, Bennett is part of a strong nucleus of young talent the Flames are counting on to lead the club into Stanley Cup contention.

Assuming an uptick in performance given Bennett now has a full year of NHL experience under his belt, it will be interesting to see how the Flames handle his restricted free agency. They’ve already locked up Monahan to a rich long-term extension and seem to want to do the same for Gaudreau. If they elect to go the same route with Bennett, he’ll likely need to do much better than 36 points to earn a contract in the same ballpark as Monahan’s.

Instead, perhaps a two-year bridge deal similar to the one Kevin Hayes received this summer makes more sense for the two sides. Hayes, who has tallied 81 points in 158 NHL games, inked a two-year pact worth $2.6MM per. That deal might be a fair comparable for Bennett assuming a 40 – 50-point output in 2016-17. A bridge deal also allows Bennett to further prove he can be a top-line player in the league.

Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton) – There was thought that perhaps the Oilers rushed Draisaitl to the NHL and possibly hindered his long term development based on the German pivot’s dreadful rookie year. After being chosen third in the 2014 draft, Draisaitl debuted in the NHL, appearing in 37 games during the 2014-15 campaign and scoring just 9 points and finishing with a -17 plus-minus rating.

Thankfully for Edmonton, Draisaitl demonstrated his career trajectory is firmly pointed upwards after an impressive sophomore season in which he tallied 51 points in 72 contests and improved his plus-minus rating to a -2. If he should continue to show that level of improvement, Draisaitl could land in the same territory as Monahan and Nathan MacKinnon each did coming off their ELCs; namely in the range of $6MM annually. Monahan is coming off back-to-back 60-point campaigns while MacKinnon sandwiched a mediocre second season (38 points in 64 games) between a 63-point debut and a 2015-16 almost identical to Draisaitl’s in terms of production (52 points in 72 games). If Draisaitl can produce in the neighborhood of 60 – 65 points in his platform year, $6MM annually may well be within reach.

Tyler Toffoli (Los Angeles) – Toffoli has improved steadily over his three full NHL seasons, seeing his goal totals increase from 12 his rookie season to 23 in year two and finally to a team-leading 31 last season with the Kings. He also led the league in plus-minus rating with a +35.

Toffoli won’t turn 25 until late in the 2016-17 campaign suggesting he has several more prime years remaining. He is entering the final season of a two-year deal with an AAV of $3.25MM and should be in line for a lucrative long-term pact. Two recent extensions signed by RFA-eligible players that could set the bar for a Toffoli deal are the contracts inked within the last several months by Filip Forsberg (six years with an AAV of $6MM per) and Mike Hoffman (four years with an AAV of $5.1875MM). If Toffoli produces season scoring totals in 2016-17 similar to those of this past campaign, he should be able to command something between what Hoffman and Forsberg are earning on each of their respective deals.

 

Snapshots: Dubois, Crosby, Team NA

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After being selected as the surprise third overall pick in the latest NHL Entry Draft, Pierre-Luc Dubois is trying to prove to everyone that he derserved to be picked above Jesse Puljujarvi and Matthew Tkachuk. In a piece by James O’Brien at NBCSports, Dubois is clear what his goal is this fall.

(The Blue Jackets) drafted me third in front of the guy everybody thought they were going to draft, but I think they made the right decision. I want to prove that to everybody.

For at least the first few years of his career, he’ll be compared to Puljujarvi constantly which is probably more unfair than anything. The Finnish winger has already been playing against men for parts of two seasons, while Dubois will head back for his final year of junior hockey (that is if he doesn’t surprise everyone to make the Blue Jackets out of camp). It may take him a while, but as GM Jarmo Kekalainen comments when talking about what will set Dubois apart, “I keep coming back to his character and hockey sense.”

  • Team Canada has often found trouble pairing players with Sidney Crosby at international competitions, with many high level talents moving on and off of his wing throughout past tournaments.  That said, head coach Mike Babcock may have found a group that he’ll stick with this time. As TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports, Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron look like the set wingers for the Team Canada captain. It’s a plan Babcock had way back in May, when he was first envisioning what his lineup might look like. The interesting part, is that Marchand is one of Team Canada’s only natural wingers, and Bergeron is highly regarded for his all-around ability and hockey IQ.  Perhaps it’s centers that don’t find a home on Crosby’s wing, similar to the way Pittsburgh has never been able to consistently pair Crosby with Evgeni Malkin for any length of time.
  • The top two picks of the 2015 NHL draft will be linked once again, as Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel will skate on a line in their second pre-tournament game against Europe tonight. The third musketeer will be Johnny Gaudreau, still unsigned as he’s entered his negotiation freeze during the tournament.  With three of the strongest skaters in the NHL on the ice at once, team North America will surely be interesting to watch, the plan all along of the NHL and commissioner Gary Bettman when he introduced the slightly off-the-board format.

Snapshots: World Cup Power Rankings, Updates

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TSN’s Scott Cullen writes that Canada is the team to beat in the World Cup of Hockey. Cullen ranks Canada, Sweden, and North America ahead of the American squad, who he pegs as fourth in his tournament power rankings. Cullen expects the Americans to be competitive but can’t see a team squarely more concerned about a “tougher” style of play going very far in a tournament that emphasizes speed and skill. The US, Cullen writes, is all about smash mouth hockey, but their goalie tandem of Cory Schneider, Ben Bishop and Jonathan Quick could give those aforementioned skilled teams some fits. Cullen places Canada at the top simply because of the top end talent they boast on every line. Sweden, he writes, has an “absurd” defensive corps with Erik Karlsson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Victor Hedman, Anton Stralman, Hampus Lindholm, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Mattias Ekholm all on the roster. He cautions that in order to knock off favorite Canada, they’ll need young forwards Filip Forsberg and Gabriel Landeskog to carry the team in scoring.

Team North America is one that Cullen believes could truly shock everyone. With young, fast, and skilled players like Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, and John Gaudreau, the under 23 team could turn some heads, and possibly pull some upsets that could unseat the favorites. For the rest of his rankings, Cullen places Russia, Finland, Czech Republic, and Europe as the bottom four teams respectively.

In other World Cup of Hockey News:

  • The USA’s 4-2 victory over Canada featured a lot of aggressive play and injury scares that remained only as fears and nothing serious. Several high profile players took vicious hits, and some had to leave the ice. Flyers captain Claude Giroux took a hit from Joe Pavelski and didn’t return until later in the third period. Logan Couture also took a hard hit from T.J. Oshie in the second period but returned in the third. Though Shea Weber was slammed into the boards by Ryan Kesler in the second period, he didn’t miss any ice time. Kesler was assessed a boarding major and a game misconduct. Pavelski recorded the game winner while Derek Stepan sealed the game with an empty net goal in a contest that became more physical as it wore on. Earlier in the day, PHR recapped some of the other injury scares during exhibition play on Thursday.

Snapshots: Quebec Expansion, Roy, Radulov, Trouba

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In a post for ESPN.com published this morning, Craig Custance provides a wealth of information on a wide array of topics. The entire piece is well worth the read but here are several of the highlights.

  • Custance relays an update on possible expansion into Quebec City, per comments from NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly. Daly said that while he would like to see the NHL return to Quebec, “hopefully at some point in my career,” there are currently no serious discussions of adding a 32nd team to the league. Daly: “We’ll recap the expansion process, but I don’t expect there will be any announcements on new expansion.” Further diminishing the chances of a Quebec entry any time in the near future, Daly also stated that despite the drawn out process, the Arizona Coyotes will “find a long-term arena in the Phoenix area,” thus eliminating any talk of possibly relocating the club. All together, the NHL is satisfied with 31 franchises and the existing geographical balance of those teams. While Daly’s comments appear to pour cold water on the idea of a Quebec franchise, it’s still a good possibility the league places a team there in the relatively near future.
  • During the first period of Team North America’s win over Team Europe, former Avalanche VP of hockey operations and head coach Patrick Roy met with the media. Roy is said to have resigned his position due to philosophical differences with other members of management and a loss of influence in the front office. When asked whether the Avs choice not to seriously pursue winger Alexander Radulov in free agency was a contributing factor to his decision to leave the organization, Roy indicated that while he vouched for his former Quebec Remparts star and would like to see him one day play for Colorado, the final call was always Joe Sakic’s and that Roy “respected his decision.” Roy would later suggest that the team is giving more thought to using analytics in their decision-making and that also may have played a part in his decision to leave.
  • Earlier today we touched on the lack of progress in talks between RFA Johnny Gaudreau and the Flames. But Gaudreau is far from the only remaining unsigned RFA of note. According to Custance, Winnipeg defenseman Jacob Trouba has not spoken to agent Kurt Overhardt since camp opened for the World Cup of Hockey. Custance also points out that one potential benefit to RFA’s participating in the tournament is the chance to further enhance their values with excellent performances at the tournament playing against many of the top players in the world. Trouba, for example, believes that he can fill a greater role with the Jets and if given a heave dose of responsibility with Team North America, perhaps he can prove to Winnipeg he is deserving of more ice time.

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