Poll: Superstar Defensemen On The Move
Much has been made recently about the futures of five All-Star defenseman who are slated for free agency in 2019. Drew Doughty is working toward an extension with the Los Angeles Kings. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is sitting on an offer from the Arizona Coyotes. The Nashville Predators have made re-signing Ryan Ellis their priority this off-season. Ryan McDonagh was unable to bring home a Stanley Cup for the favorite Tampa Bay Lightning after a deadline blockbuster. And all of this has somehow overshadowed the potential availability of the Ottawa Senators’ Erik Karlsson.
All five of these superstar defenders could sign extensions on July 1st. Of course, they could all be dealt away even sooner. Doughty seems closest on a deal, but has strict salary demands that could end up souring one side or the other. Ekman-Larsson has always seemed loyal to the Coyotes, but is understandably concerned about the future of the team given their struggles throughout his career. Ellis too has been a loyal soldier for the Predators and an extremely underpaid one at that. He could make far more and play a far greater role elsewhere. McDonagh was acquired for the Bolts to make a title run this year and next, but beyond that point the team may not be able to afford him. Finally, Karlsson is the ultimate prize. He has expressed a desire to get fair market value on his next deal and polarizing Ottawa owner Eugene Melnyk seems unlikely to match.
So, as the off-season gets underway and these five know that their futures will be determined in the next twelve months, the question is how many re-sign and how many move on, either via trade or free agency? Which of these stars will don the same jersey in 2019-20 as they did in 2017-18?
Karlsson, Doughty, OEL, Ellis, McDonagh: How Many Re-Sign With Their Current Team?
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3 40% (365)
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2 26% (238)
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4 16% (147)
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All 9% (86)
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1 5% (48)
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None 2% (22)
Total votes: 906
Doughty, Kings Progressing On An Extension
As is always the case, a much-anticipated free agent market loses many top names before it actually opens. As it currently stands, the talent level and depth of the potential 2019 class makes it one of the best the NHL has ever (hypothetically) seen. However, each player in that class can sign an extension beginning on July 1st of this year and has an entire calendar year before they become available. In that time, this epic free agent group could shrink considerably.
One of the top names already seems destined to be removed from the market. For a time, it was believed that Los Angeles Kings defenseman Drew Doughty may test the open waters of free agency and could even be the final piece of the championship puzzle for his hometown Toronto Maple Leafs. However, Doughty has made it clear in recent months that his preference is to remain in L.A. Now, Sportsnet insider Nick Kypreos reports that the two sides are already closing in on an agreement to make that happen. Given that an extension offer cannot even officially be made for another month, this early progress seems to indicate that this deal will get done.
According to Kypreos, the 28-year-old Norris Trophy-winning defender will get a significant raise in his next contract over what is already a considerable cap hit at $7MM. Doughty has gone on the record as saying that he would like to be paid more than Nashville Predators blue liner P.K. Subban, who is currently the highest-paid defenseman in the league at $9MM AAV. Kypreos estimates that Doughty will land somewhere in the $10.5-11MM per year range on a long-term deal, which would make him the new top dog among defenseman – until Erik Karlsson hits the market. While it may seem overwhelming that the Kings would have two players, captain Anze Kopitar being the other, making $10MM+, a rising salary cap would make it much less of a burden than it has been on the only other team in that scenario, the Chicago Blackhawks. L.A. would have two of the league’s best players locked up long-term and would not be as strapped for space to build around them in pursuit of more championships for one the best teams in this century.
Snapshots: Ekman-Larsson, Boston University, Gurianov, Lockwood
With the news that the Arizona Coyotes have offered defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson a new contract extension at eight years and $66MM, the real question is whether or not the 26-year-old star defenseman intends to stay in Arizona. The defenseman can’t officially sign an extension until July 1, but not signing the deal will make it clear whether he really wants to stay in Arizona like he has previously said.
The New York Post’s Larry Brooks writes that if the defenseman doesn’t agree to sign the extension in the next couple of weeks, the team will almost guaranteed trade their star before the NHL draft this year to get the best possible return in the final year of his deal. In fact with the likelihood that the Ottawa Senators might be ready to move Erik Karlsson, this might be the best time for teams to get their hands on a star defenseman. Brooks adds that was one of the main reasons that the New York Rangers moved Ryan McDonagh at the trade deadline, because they foresaw the possibility that both Ekman-Larsson and Karlsson might be available during the offseason which would have limited their return for McDonagh had they waited until now.
- Kevin Paul Dupont of the Boston Globe writes that Boston University has narrowed its head coaching search to two candidates after the school lost David Quinn to the New York Rangers last week. The scribe writes that the head coaching post will come down to former alumni and ex-Boston Bruins winger Shawn McEachern and Union College head coach Rick Bennett. McEachern, who is currently the head coach at the Rivers School, would maintain the school’s long-time BU lineage, while Bennett would offer new blood and a coach who has already won a NCAA title.
- With the Dallas Stars’ AHL affiliate, the Texas Stars in the AHL Calder Cup Championships, much has been made about the Stars’ Denis Gurianov, Dallas’ first-round pick in the 2015 draft (12th overall), who was listed as a healthy scratch before Game 1 today. Despite tallying 19 goals for Texas this season, the fact that he has been a healthy scratch multiple times during the playoffs is an immensely bad sign, according to NHL.com’s Patrick Williams. In 14 playoff games this year, Gurianov has just five points. The Stars drafted Gurianov over several impactful players that year, including Mathew Barzal, Kyle Connor and Jack Roslovic.
- Vancouver Canucks and University of Michigan prospect Will Lockwood, who injured his shoulder while at the World Juniors this winter and required major surgery, has been cleared to skate and hopes to be ready for the Canucks’ annual prospect development camp this summer and is expected to be fully healthy for his junior year with the Wolverines, according to The Athletic’s Mike Halford (subscription required). The 2016 third-round pick was having a solid year with Michigan, putting up four goals and seven assists in 16 games before getting injured.
Snapshots: Carlson, Ellis, Kovalchuk, Nash
If John Tavares re-signs with the New York Islanders, Washington Capitals defenseman John Carlson would become the undisputed top free agent on the market this summer. However, Carlson’s priority is also to re-sign with his current team and the Capitals’ current Stanley Cup run may only sell him on staying even more. Plus, the estimated cap increase could make it easier for Washington to retain their blue line leader. Yet, Carlson is unlikely to ignore what the open market might offer in a world with no Tavares and a higher cap ceiling. The 28-year-old defenseman could command much more from another team than he’ll likely be able to get from the Caps. The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun believes that one of the top suitors will be none other than Carlson’s current opposition, the Vegas Golden Knights. Despite their unforeseeable success this season, the Knights’ defensive corps is far from an elite unit and is in need of a leader. Although they have been connected to Erik Karlsson in the past, LeBrun opines that the easier route for Vegas may be to simply sign Carlson. The need, the cap space, and the connection to GM George McPhee may be enough to entice Carlson to make the cross-country trek. If the Knights are able to win the Stanley Cup, it would add insult to injury to steal both a title and a top player from the Capitals.
- LeBrun also had the inside scoop on another defenseman, the Nashville Predators’ Ryan Ellis. Although Ellis is not a free agent until 2019, LeBrun learned from Nashville GM David Poile that signing Ellis to an extension will be the Predators’ top priority this summer. Citing the loss of Ryan Suter years ago, LeBrun says that Poile is no longer willing to wait on re-signing his key players. However, the negotiations with Ellis may prove to be more difficult than anticipated. Ellis has been one of the best values in hockey over the last five years at a cap hit of just $2.5MM. No one will blame the offensive defenseman for seeking top dollar in his next deal and he is more likely to find that on the open market.
- One player who may not be as concerned about money is Ilya Kovalchuk. TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that Kovalchuk’s main priority in returning to the NHL is to win the Stanley Cup. Kovalchuk is allegedly focused on finding a multi-year deal with a good fit. One possible suitor could be the New York Islanders, as Kovalchuk expressed to Dreger that he appreciated how then-GM Lou Lamoriello handled his sudden departure from New Jersey and shared that the two have maintained a positive relationship. Now that Lamoriello is in New York with more than enough cap space to sign Tavares and quite a few more, Kovalchuk could be a target. The KHL’s reigning leading scorer may sign with any team on July 1st.
- One player who could be locked up before July 1st is Rick Nash. Boston Bruins GM Don Sweeney has expressed a desire to bring back several of his impending free agents, but has noted the reality that there is not enough space for all of them. The Bruins appear to have prioritized a new deal with their blockbuster trade deadline acquisition, as The Sports Hub’s Ty Anderson reports that Sweeney and Nash will continue negotiations next week. On the topic, Sweeney said “Rick indicated when he came to Boston that he was excited about the opportunity. He wants to win. He wants an opportunity to win. He felt badly, and certainly he’s not responsible for this, because he got injured.” What Nash feels badly about is likely both the drop-off in his play during the playoffs and the premature end to the Bruins season at the hands of the Tampa Bay Lightning in the second round. Nash suffered a concussion late in the regular season and never seemed to get back to 100%, but prior to his injury looked unstoppable on the Bruins’ second line with David Krejci and Jake DeBrusk. At the right price, it’s understandable why Sweeney and company would like to give Nash another chance to re-create that chemistry and help bring a Cup to Boston.
Poll: Impact Of The Estimated Cap Increase
Earlier this week, Commissioner Gary Bettman and Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly spoke with the media about many different league topics. Perhaps the biggest news to come out of the press conference was Daly’s estimation of the salary cap for next season. Daly believes that the salary cap will fall somewhere between $78MM and $82MM, meaning that there will be a significant increase in the salary cap. The cap limit has increased by $2MM or less in each of the past three seasons, but the low point of the estimated range would already be a $3MM increase over the 2017-18 cap number. If it ends up near the top of the range, it will likely be the largest jump in the salary cap in league history.
Whatever the result, the cap increase will undoubtedly affect this off-season. Prior to Daly’s projection, teams like the Los Angeles Kings, Pittsburgh Penguins, Chicago Blackhawks, and Tampa Bay Lightning were going to face an immense cap crunch this summer and likely would have been forced to shed salary. Those teams can now breathe easier. However, teams on the lower end of the salary spectrum who don’t spend to the cap, such as the Carolina Hurricanes and Arizona Coyotes, will find it even harder to catch up in a market that that has lessened its grip on the stronger, higher payroll teams. With a higher cap comes salary inflation, which is another struggle for small market teams. The cap increase may also allow for some of the bigger talked-about trades and free agent movement – John Tavares, Erik Karlsson, Phil Kessel, ect. – to happen. However, the flip side is that a salary cap increase gives teams incentive to add, but not subtract and could lessen the amount of total trades we see this summer.
What do you think? Is this potentially historic increase in the salary cap ceiling a good thing for the league?
How Do You Feel About The Estimated NHL Salary Cap Increase?
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It is good for the league - it allows strong teams to stay together and allows big names to move freely 63% (430)
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No opinion - the cap increases every year and the estimated limit will not have a major impact 24% (164)
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It is bad for the league - it hurts small market teams and competitive balance and may hinder the trade market 13% (90)
Total votes: 684
Draft Lottery’s Biggest Winner Is Buffalo’s Ristolainen
While adding superstar prospect Rasmus Dahlin with the No. 1 overall pick in June will aid in the Buffalo Sabres rebuild a lot quicker, perhaps the biggest beneficiary will be defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen. Taken eighth overall in 2013, the blueliner has been tabbed as the team’s No. 1 defenseman since that day and treated as such as he’s averaged more than 26 minutes a game for the past three years. In fact, Ristolainen ranked fourth in the NHL this year in average ice time (ATOI) with 26:30 behind only Los Angeles Kings’ Drew Doughty, Minnesota Wild’s Ryan Suter and Ottawa Senators’ Erik Karlsson.
However, as the years have passed, it’s been quite obvious that he’s not the coveted No. 1 defenseman that they hoped he’d be. In fact, as this season wrapped up, there has been talk of moving on from him. However, everything changed Saturday when the Buffalo Sabres won the draft lottery. With Dahlin taking over the responsibilities as the team’s top defenseman next season, which is inevitable, the team may get more production out of Ristolainen with a lesser role, according to The Hockey News’ Ryan Kennedy.
The scribe writes that Ristolainen has been leaned on too much over the course his career and his development has paid for it with the amount of minutes the team has forced him to play over his short career, mostly due to the fact that the Sabres have lacked any depth in quality defensemen over the years. Of course, he’s put up modest seasons, including three straight 40-point seasons, but has done nothing to earn top-flight minutes.
However, with Dahlin in the team’s rotation next season and perhaps another addition in the offseason, the Sabres will have more depth and can give Ristolainen more rest during games. Whether the right-handed defenseman is paired with the left-handed Dahlin or whether they are split into two pairs, the 23-year-old Ristolainen looks like he’s finally got the help he needed the last few years.
Throw in an improved season by Marco Scandella and a full-season from Brendan Guhle, there is a sign of hope in Buffalo. The team also is close to signing top Sweedish defenseman Lawrence Pilut and have also signed top college defenseman Will Borgen, although both could end up starting in the AHL for a while. Regardless, their blueline has a lot of promise.
Draft Lottery Can Change Many Franchises’ Futures
A lottery it really is this year.
While the NHL draft lottery always garners quite a bit of attention, some years are just a bit different if the top pick is a game-changer, whether you’re talking about Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews or this year’s No. 1 option. With prospect Rasmus Dahlin listed as the consensus top pick this year, and described by many as having no weaknesses, he is considered to be one of the top defensive prospects to enter the league in possible decades. The 18-year-old defenseman out of Sweden should immediately change the state of any franchise that wins tonight.
With the lottery just hours away, how will each club look if they were to get lucky and win it?
Buffalo Sabres (18.5%) — The Sabres franchise would get a huge boost with the addition of Dahlin plus some badly needed luck that they seem to never have. Already boasting one of the worst defenses in the league and sudden talk that the team shouldn’t consider Rasmus Ristolainen a No. 1 defenseman, the team and general manager Jason Botterrill’s job would get much easier if they can win the lottery.
Ottawa Senators (13.5%) — Winning the lottery should make their tough decision easier as they traded away their top pick in the Matt Duchene trade, which is, fortunately for them, top-three protected. Winning the lottery is a no-brainer as they would take Dahlin who could either join star defenseman Erik Karlsson or allow the team to trade the veteran, knowing they already have his replacement. However, the real issue is they end up in the top three, do they keep the pick or send it to Colorado to avoid giving Colorado an unprotected first-rounder in 2019.
Arizona Coyotes (11.5%) — Despite having the third-worst record in the league this year, the Coyotes seem to be heading in the right direction as they went 19-12-4 in their final 35 games of the season as many of the team’s young players had started to figure things out. What better way to improve on that then to add Dahlin, who could convince fellow countryman Oliver Ekman-Larsson to stay on with the team for many years to come.
Montreal Canadiens (9.5%) — With the injury struggles of aging defenseman Shea Weber and little else defensive help nearby, the team could use the infusion of a franchise-changing defenseman joining the team. With Weber and goaltender Carey Price on huge contracts, a cheap franchise player could move the team in the right direction.
Detroit Red Wings (8.5%) — What better way to finally start the rebuild, then by adding a young, talented defender to join the team. With few defensive prospects on the horizon, the team’s suspect defense could get a huge boost with Dahlin. With the return of Mike Green unknown, and a group of aging veterans, the team needs someone to take over as the face of the franchise.
Vancouver Canucks (7.5%) — The Canucks rebuild is looking better and better with players like Adam Gaudette, Elias Pettersson, Jonathan Dahlen and defenseman Olli Juolevi about to arrive. Throw in Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat and a number of other prospects on the way, Dahlin would only quicken this team’s rise of young players. On top of that, the team is loaded with defensive-minded blueliners and could use an offensive power-play quarterback.
Chicago Blackhawks (6.5%) — While a lottery victory by the Blackhawks might infuriate the rest of the league, the Blackhawks do need to bolster their defensive depth and Dahlin could easily vault a struggling team back into the playoffs as he could take a lot of pressure off veterans Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook.
New York Rangers (6%) — Just started a rebuild and they walk away with a generational talent? While many people believe the Rangers intend to have a quick rebuild and compete for a playoff spot within the next year or two, having Dahlin on the roster would only jettison the team to that goal quicker and putting him alongside Brady Skjei and Neal Pionk along with veteran Kevin Shattenkirk would help stabilize their blueline.
New York Islanders (6% total with 3.5% from their pick and Calgary’s 2.5%) — Perhaps winning the lottery would be enough to convince John Tavares to stay. Regardless, adding Dahlin to their defensive woes would only stabilize a team that has the offense to reach the playoffs. He could be a cornerstone the franchise hasn’t had there since Denis Potvin. Add in the fact that the Islanders also have the Calgary Flames’ pick, the team has a better chance to winning the lottery than quite a few teams.
Edmonton Oilers (5%) — Angry fans might protest Edmonton walking away as another lottery winner, but adding Dahlin to, again, a failing defense would allow a team that already has McDavid and Leon Draisaitl should bounce back to where they left off one year ago. Dahlin would provide the team with the No. 1 defenseman that they currently lack
Carolina Hurricanes (3%) — As the percentage begin to really drop, Carolina would only get richer as the team is already loaded in quality young defensemen and would allow the team to move other defenseman like Justin Faulk and acquire more scoring, which the team badly needs.
Dallas Stars (2%) — The addition of Dahlin along with last year’s third overall pick in Finnish defenseman Miro Heiskanen would make for a deadly combo and that’s not including John Klingberg.
Philadelphia Flyers (1.5% from St. Louis Blues) — Adding Dahlin could put Philadelphia at the same level with Pittsburgh, Washington and Tampa Bay.
Florida Panthers (1%) — The hottest team that didn’t make the playoffs would get a much needed boost if they could hit that 1/100 chance.
Poll: Who Should Win The 2017-18 Norris Trophy?
There was much debate in the hockey world yesterday when the NHL released their three finalists for the Norris Trophy. The award, given to the best defenseman in the league, always stirs up controversy of some sort over who was snubbed. This year, that honor could go to John Carlson who scored more points than any other blueliner in the league but didn’t have his name mentioned in the final group.
P.K. Subban. Drew Doughty. Victor Hedman. Who should be taking home the trophy this season? Don’t vote on who you think will win, but who should win after the season they put up. We’ll list the finalists and some of the other common nominees to see if our readership would have selected the same three nominees.
Make sure to explain your reasoning in the comment section!
Who should win the 2017-18 Norris?
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Victor Hedman 35% (180)
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Drew Doughty 18% (95)
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P.K Subban 14% (71)
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John Carlson 9% (48)
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Seth Jones 5% (26)
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Roman Josi 4% (23)
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John Klingberg 4% (20)
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Other (leave in comments) 4% (20)
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Erik Karlsson 3% (16)
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Brent Burns 2% (12)
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Ryan Suter 2% (10)
Total votes: 521
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
Latest On Erik Karlsson’s Future In Ottawa
Elliotte Friedman was on Sportsnet radio this morning, and spoke candidly about his thoughts on the Erik Karlsson and John Tavares sagas. On Karlsson in particular, Friedman was pessimistic on the Ottawa Senators chance to keep their captain in town long-term.
I think right now we’re at a point where everybody will be shocked if Erik Karlsson’s going to be in Ottawa at the start of next year. I don’t think there is a lot of people who see that as the option.
This comes after Karlsson was spotted taking the puck from the net after his final home game, and not joining the team on the road for their last few games. Neither of those things are definitive, especially given the extremely difficult times Karlsson is dealing with in his personal life. The 27-year old’s son was stillborn in late March, and he is currently spending time with his wife at home in Ottawa. The Senators would obviously welcome him back for their final games tonight and tomorrow, but no one would criticize him for putting family first.
Still, the thought that he has played his last game in an Ottawa Senators sweater is one that can’t easily be shaken. The superstar defenseman has been the subject of rumors all season, and there were multiple reports of trade deadline deals that came close. The Vegas Golden Knights were apparently one of those teams pursuing him at the deadline, but couldn’t get something of that magnitude finalized with such a hard deadline. In the offseason, with one more year on his contract those talks would be able to take as long as they need.
Trading Karlsson would likely signal the start of a mini rebuild in Ottawa, despite having spent future assets to acquire Matt Duchene earlier this season. They owe Colorado a first-round pick this year or next, which will be a tough decision to make given that they’ll be picking somewhere high this season. The Senators are currently 30th in the league with 67 points, but could drop as many as three spots after the draft lottery. If they end up sending the 2019 pick instead, it is not lottery protected and could theoretically be the first-overall selection.
There are quite a few interesting prospects coming through the pipeline in Ottawa, which makes the Karlsson decision even tougher. If they aren’t going to be able to re-sign him, trading him for near NHL-ready talent could actually make them better in 2019-20, not just some theoretical future. That question, of whether or not they can re-sign him, is one none of us can know at this point. Karlsson has always been loyal to Ottawa and spoken highly of the city, but there are other issues at play. The Senators franchise has never been accused of being big spenders, and a long-term deal for their captain would likely push close to $100MM. That might be out of their price range entirely, making negotiations impossible. The Norris-winner has explained that he’s going to ask for what he believes he’s worth, and not give a big discount to any team.
As Friedman implied, it does seem like this situation is heading towards an inevitable trade. The Senators get a large package of assets that can help them quickly, while someone else gets one of the best defensemen in the league. Who that will be is completely up in the air at this point, as after the season ends there will be dozens of teams calling to level interest. Whatever happens, Ottawa will be front and center this offseason.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
GM Notes: Holland, Dorion, Bergevin
The Detroit Red Wings were officially eliminated from postseason contention recently, but the majority of their fans had already given up on this season some time ago. Even before it started, the Red Wings looked to be in a tough spot as they transition from the old guard to the first steps of a rebuild. They’ve done well to add draft picks over the last two years, but one question still remained. Who would be leading them down these uncharted waters, and towards the next successful Red Wings team?
Many fans have expressed a desire for change at the top, and GM Ken Holland‘s contract is up at the end of the season. Whether that means there will be a new voice steering the ship is still unclear, but Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) provides a wealth of insight into how the organization and other executives around the league see the situation. Answers range from an expected extension to a trip to Seattle for the long-time Detroit GM, but it seems we’ll have to wait a little longer to find out where he’ll be next year.
- Pierre Dorion, another GM on the edge of a potential rebuild and a fan mutiny, provided some answers on his plans for the Ottawa Senators offseason to Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia. Dorion confirmed that on July 1st they will indeed offer an extension to Erik Karlsson, though he didn’t give any indication what that offer may look like. He also admitted that the front office will evaluate the coaching staff, including Guy Boucher, after the season and decide what the future will look like behind the bench. The Senators had an extremely disappointing season after coming just a goal shy of the Stanley Cup finals in 2017, and have faced several media firestorms over comments by everyone from Kyle Turris to owner Eugene Melnyk.
- In his latest 31 Thoughts column, Elliotte Friedman mentions that Montreal Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin received a vote of confidence from ownership for the second time this season. If that means Bergevin is sticking around to fix what went wrong this season, the response in Montreal will likely be very divided. There are many fans who believe the organization should go in a different direction with their front office, but if Bergevin does indeed remain this summer could be quite interesting. Never one to shy away from a big trade, the Canadiens have to do something to take advantage of the best years of Carey Price and Shea Weber, and are still starved for the first-line center they’ve been looking for for years. Friedman mentions that Martin Lapointe, currently the Director of Player Development, could assume a larger role going forward.