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Erik Karlsson

Poll: Impact Of The Estimated Cap Increase

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Earlier this week, Commissioner Gary Bettman and Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly spoke with the media about many different league topics. Perhaps the biggest news to come out of the press conference was Daly’s estimation of the salary cap for next season. Daly believes that the salary cap will fall somewhere between $78MM and $82MM, meaning that there will be a significant increase in the salary cap. The cap limit has increased by $2MM or less in each of the past three seasons, but the low point of the estimated range would already be a $3MM increase over the 2017-18 cap number. If it ends up near the top of the range, it will likely be the largest jump in the salary cap in league history.

Whatever the result, the cap increase will undoubtedly affect this off-season. Prior to Daly’s projection, teams like the Los Angeles Kings, Pittsburgh Penguins, Chicago Blackhawks, and Tampa Bay Lightning were going to face an immense cap crunch this summer and likely would have been forced to shed salary. Those teams can now breathe easier. However, teams on the lower end of the salary spectrum who don’t spend to the cap, such as the Carolina Hurricanes and Arizona Coyotes, will find it even harder to catch up in a market that that has lessened its grip on the stronger, higher payroll teams. With a higher cap comes salary inflation, which is another struggle for small market teams. The cap increase may also allow for some of the bigger talked-about trades and free agent movement – John Tavares, Erik Karlsson, Phil Kessel, ect. –  to happen. However, the flip side is that a salary cap increase gives teams incentive to add, but not subtract and could lessen the amount of total trades we see this summer.

What do you think? Is this potentially historic increase in the salary cap ceiling a good thing for the league?

Draft Lottery’s Biggest Winner Is Buffalo’s Ristolainen

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While adding superstar prospect Rasmus Dahlin with the No. 1 overall pick in June will aid in the Buffalo Sabres rebuild a lot quicker, perhaps the biggest beneficiary will be defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen. Taken eighth overall in 2013, the blueliner has been tabbed as the team’s No. 1 defenseman since that day and treated as such as he’s averaged more than 26 minutes a game for the past three years. In fact, Ristolainen ranked fourth in the NHL this year in average ice time (ATOI) with 26:30 behind only Los Angeles Kings’ Drew Doughty, Minnesota Wild’s Ryan Suter and Ottawa Senators’ Erik Karlsson.

However, as the years have passed, it’s been quite obvious that he’s not the coveted No. 1 defenseman that they hoped he’d be. In fact, as this season wrapped up, there has been talk of moving on from him. However, everything changed Saturday when the Buffalo Sabres won the draft lottery. With Dahlin taking over the responsibilities as the team’s top defenseman next season, which is inevitable, the team may get more production out of Ristolainen with a lesser role, according to The Hockey News’ Ryan Kennedy.

The scribe writes that Ristolainen has been leaned on too much over the course his career and his development has paid for it with the amount of minutes the team has forced him to play over his short career, mostly due to the fact that the Sabres have lacked any depth in quality defensemen over the years. Of course, he’s put up modest seasons, including three straight 40-point seasons, but has done nothing to earn top-flight minutes.

However, with Dahlin in the team’s rotation next season and perhaps another addition in the offseason, the Sabres will have more depth and can give Ristolainen more rest during games. Whether the right-handed defenseman is paired with the left-handed Dahlin or whether they are split into two pairs, the 23-year-old Ristolainen looks like he’s finally got the help he needed the last few years.

Throw in an improved season by Marco Scandella and a full-season from Brendan Guhle, there is a sign of hope in Buffalo. The team also is close to signing top Sweedish defenseman Lawrence Pilut and have also signed top college defenseman Will Borgen, although both could end up starting in the AHL for a while. Regardless, their blueline has a lot of promise.

 

Draft Lottery Can Change Many Franchises’ Futures

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A lottery it really is this year.

While the NHL draft lottery always garners quite a bit of attention, some years are just a bit different if the top pick is a game-changer, whether you’re talking about Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews or this year’s No. 1 option. With prospect Rasmus Dahlin listed as the consensus top pick this year, and described by many as having no weaknesses, he is considered to be one of the top defensive prospects to enter the league in possible decades. The 18-year-old defenseman out of Sweden should immediately change the state of any franchise that wins tonight.

With the lottery just hours away, how will each club look if they were to get lucky and win it?

Buffalo Sabres (18.5%) — The Sabres franchise would get a huge boost with the addition of Dahlin plus some badly needed luck that they seem to never have. Already boasting one of the worst defenses in the league and sudden talk that the team shouldn’t consider Rasmus Ristolainen a No. 1 defenseman, the team and general manager Jason Botterrill’s job would get much easier if they can win the lottery.

Ottawa Senators (13.5%) — Winning the lottery should make their tough decision easier as they traded away their top pick in the Matt Duchene trade, which is, fortunately for them, top-three protected. Winning the lottery is a no-brainer as they would take Dahlin who could either join star defenseman Erik Karlsson or allow the team to trade the veteran, knowing they already have his replacement. However, the real issue is they end up in the top three, do they keep the pick or send it to Colorado to avoid giving Colorado an unprotected first-rounder in 2019.

Arizona Coyotes (11.5%) — Despite having the third-worst record in the league this year, the Coyotes seem to be heading in the right direction as they went 19-12-4 in their final 35 games of the season as many of the team’s young players had started to figure things out. What better way to improve on that then to add Dahlin, who could convince fellow countryman Oliver Ekman-Larsson to stay on with the team for many years to come.

Montreal Canadiens (9.5%) — With the injury struggles of aging defenseman Shea Weber and little else defensive help nearby, the team could use the infusion of a franchise-changing defenseman joining the team. With Weber and goaltender Carey Price on huge contracts, a cheap franchise player could move the team in the right direction.

Detroit Red Wings (8.5%) — What better way to finally start the rebuild, then by adding a young, talented defender to join the team. With few defensive prospects on the horizon, the team’s suspect defense could get a huge boost with Dahlin. With the return of Mike Green unknown, and a group of aging veterans, the team needs someone to take over as the face of the franchise.

Vancouver Canucks (7.5%) — The Canucks rebuild is looking better and better with players like Adam Gaudette, Elias Pettersson, Jonathan Dahlen and defenseman Olli Juolevi about to arrive. Throw in Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat and a number of other prospects on the way, Dahlin would only quicken this team’s rise of young players. On top of that, the team is loaded with defensive-minded blueliners and could use an offensive power-play quarterback.

Chicago Blackhawks (6.5%) — While a lottery victory by the Blackhawks might infuriate the rest of the league, the Blackhawks do need to bolster their defensive depth and Dahlin could easily vault a struggling team back into the playoffs as he could take a lot of pressure off veterans Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook.

New York Rangers (6%) — Just started a rebuild and they walk away with a generational talent? While many people believe the Rangers intend to have a quick rebuild and compete for a playoff spot within the next year or two, having Dahlin on the roster would only jettison the team to that goal quicker and putting him alongside Brady Skjei and Neal Pionk along with veteran Kevin Shattenkirk would help stabilize their blueline.

New York Islanders (6% total with 3.5% from their pick and Calgary’s 2.5%) — Perhaps winning the lottery would be enough to convince John Tavares to stay. Regardless, adding Dahlin to their defensive woes would only stabilize a team that has the offense to reach the playoffs. He could be a cornerstone the franchise hasn’t had there since Denis Potvin. Add in the fact that the Islanders also have the Calgary Flames’ pick, the team has a better chance to winning the lottery than quite a few teams.

Edmonton Oilers (5%) — Angry fans might protest Edmonton walking away as another lottery winner, but adding Dahlin to, again, a failing defense would allow a team that already has McDavid and Leon Draisaitl should bounce back to where they left off one year ago. Dahlin would provide the team with the No. 1 defenseman that they currently lack

Carolina Hurricanes (3%) — As the percentage begin to really drop, Carolina would only get richer as the team is already loaded in quality young defensemen and would allow the team to move other defenseman like Justin Faulk and acquire more scoring, which the team badly needs.

Dallas Stars (2%) — The addition of Dahlin along with last year’s third overall pick in Finnish defenseman Miro Heiskanen would make for a deadly combo and that’s not including John Klingberg.

Philadelphia Flyers (1.5% from St. Louis Blues) — Adding Dahlin could put Philadelphia at the same level with Pittsburgh, Washington and Tampa Bay.

Florida Panthers (1%) — The hottest team that didn’t make the playoffs would get a much needed boost if they could hit that 1/100 chance.

 

 

Poll: Who Should Win The 2017-18 Norris Trophy?

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There was much debate in the hockey world yesterday when the NHL released their three finalists for the Norris Trophy. The award, given to the best defenseman in the league, always stirs up controversy of some sort over who was snubbed. This year, that honor could go to John Carlson who scored more points than any other blueliner in the league but didn’t have his name mentioned in the final group.

P.K. Subban. Drew Doughty. Victor Hedman. Who should be taking home the trophy this season? Don’t vote on who you think will win, but who should win after the season they put up. We’ll list the finalists and some of the other common nominees to see if our readership would have selected the same three nominees.

Make sure to explain your reasoning in the comment section!

[Mobile users click here to vote!]

Latest On Erik Karlsson’s Future In Ottawa

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Elliotte Friedman was on Sportsnet radio this morning, and spoke candidly about his thoughts on the Erik Karlsson and John Tavares sagas. On Karlsson in particular, Friedman was pessimistic on the Ottawa Senators chance to keep their captain in town long-term.

I think right now we’re at a point where everybody will be shocked if Erik Karlsson’s going to be in Ottawa at the start of next year. I don’t think there is a lot of people who see that as the option. 

This comes after Karlsson was spotted taking the puck from the net after his final home game, and not joining the team on the road for their last few games. Neither of those things are definitive, especially given the extremely difficult times Karlsson is dealing with in his personal life. The 27-year old’s son was stillborn in late March, and he is currently spending time with his wife at home in Ottawa. The Senators would obviously welcome him back for their final games tonight and tomorrow, but no one would criticize him for putting family first.

Still, the thought that he has played his last game in an Ottawa Senators sweater is one that can’t easily be shaken. The superstar defenseman has been the subject of rumors all season, and there were multiple reports of trade deadline deals that came close. The Vegas Golden Knights were apparently one of those teams pursuing him at the deadline, but couldn’t get something of that magnitude finalized with such a hard deadline. In the offseason, with one more year on his contract those talks would be able to take as long as they need.

Trading Karlsson would likely signal the start of a mini rebuild in Ottawa, despite having spent future assets to acquire Matt Duchene earlier this season. They owe Colorado a first-round pick this year or next, which will be a tough decision to make given that they’ll be picking somewhere high this season. The Senators are currently 30th in the league with 67 points, but could drop as many as three spots after the draft lottery. If they end up sending the 2019 pick instead, it is not lottery protected and could theoretically be the first-overall selection.

There are quite a few interesting prospects coming through the pipeline in Ottawa, which makes the Karlsson decision even tougher. If they aren’t going to be able to re-sign him, trading him for near NHL-ready talent could actually make them better in 2019-20, not just some theoretical future. That question, of whether or not they can re-sign him, is one none of us can know at this point. Karlsson has always been loyal to Ottawa and spoken highly of the city, but there are other issues at play. The Senators franchise has never been accused of being big spenders, and a long-term deal for their captain would likely push close to $100MM. That might be out of their price range entirely, making negotiations impossible. The Norris-winner has explained that he’s going to ask for what he believes he’s worth, and not give a big discount to any team.

As Friedman implied, it does seem like this situation is heading towards an inevitable trade. The Senators get a large package of assets that can help them quickly, while someone else gets one of the best defensemen in the league. Who that will be is completely up in the air at this point, as after the season ends there will be dozens of teams calling to level interest. Whatever happens, Ottawa will be front and center this offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

GM Notes: Holland, Dorion, Bergevin

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The Detroit Red Wings were officially eliminated from postseason contention recently, but the majority of their fans had already given up on this season some time ago. Even before it started, the Red Wings looked to be in a tough spot as they transition from the old guard to the first steps of a rebuild. They’ve done well to add draft picks over the last two years, but one question still remained. Who would be leading them down these uncharted waters, and towards the next successful Red Wings team?

Many fans have expressed a desire for change at the top, and GM Ken Holland’s contract is up at the end of the season. Whether that means there will be a new voice steering the ship is still unclear, but Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) provides a wealth of insight into how the organization and other executives around the league see the situation. Answers range from an expected extension to a trip to Seattle for the long-time Detroit GM, but it seems we’ll have to wait a little longer to find out where he’ll be next year.

  • Pierre Dorion, another GM on the edge of a potential rebuild and a fan mutiny, provided some answers on his plans for the Ottawa Senators offseason to Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia. Dorion confirmed that on July 1st they will indeed offer an extension to Erik Karlsson, though he didn’t give any indication what that offer may look like. He also admitted that the front office will evaluate the coaching staff, including Guy Boucher, after the season and decide what the future will look like behind the bench. The Senators had an extremely disappointing season after coming just a goal shy of the Stanley Cup finals in 2017, and have faced several media firestorms over comments by everyone from Kyle Turris to owner Eugene Melnyk.
  • In his latest 31 Thoughts column, Elliotte Friedman mentions that Montreal Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin received a vote of confidence from ownership for the second time this season. If that means Bergevin is sticking around to fix what went wrong this season, the response in Montreal will likely be very divided. There are many fans who believe the organization should go in a different direction with their front office, but if Bergevin does indeed remain this summer could be quite interesting. Never one to shy away from a big trade, the Canadiens have to do something to take advantage of the best years of Carey Price and Shea Weber, and are still starved for the first-line center they’ve been looking for for years. Friedman mentions that Martin Lapointe, currently the Director of Player Development, could assume a larger role going forward.

Snapshots: Maple Leafs Future, McDonagh, Price, Ferland

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While armed with top talent to make a Stanley Cup run now, the Toronto Maple Leafs will also have quite a few decisions to make after this season. For purposes of their playoff run, the team held onto its two key unrestricted free agents in Tyler Bozak and James van Riemsdyk. However, there is an extreme likelihood the team will move on from those two after the season. The team’s salary cap will continue to tighten over the next couple of years, especially with the pending extensions of Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner. In fact, all three could be extended this summer, although Nylander is the only one who will be a restricted free agent when the offseason begins.

Kevin McGran of the Toronto Star writes that its unlikely either Bozak or van Riesmdyk will return. Bozak is especially unlikely as he will be highly coveted by teams that are in need of a center and might overpay to sign him, something that Toronto cannot afford to do. Van Riemsdyk is another player, who puts up lots of goals, but lacks in other areas and McGran writes that he could see coach Mike Babcock wanting to move on as well.

What other options are out there? One legitimate possibility would be for the Maple Leafs to go out and sign KHL star and former NHLer Ilya Kovalchuk. The 34-year-old winger might be a perfect replacement for van Riemsdyk and would be much cheaper. Kovalchuk is coming off his best two seasons in the KHL as well as leading Russia to a gold medal and winning the MVP award at the Olympics a couple of weeks ago.

McGran also mentions Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau’s former teammate and buddy would be an interesting possibility to replace Bozak. While he’s coming off a tough injury, Thornton would provide the team with more leadership and experience. Russian defenseman Igor Ozhiganov of CSKA Moscow has also been linked to the Maple Leafs. Among the top in-house candidates, McGran points to wingers Andreas Johnsson and Carl Grundstrom along with centers Miro Aaltonen and Frederik Gauthier as players who could fill out Toronto’s line next season. The team should also have some defensive depth options in Calle Rosen, Andreas Borgman and Timothy Liljegren.

  • Tampa Bay Times’ Joe Smith writes that while the Tampa Bay Lightning attempted to pry defenseman Erik Karlsson from Ottawa at the trade deadline, the acquisition of defenseman Ryan McDonagh was hardly a fallback option. The general belief is that McDonagh might prove to be a better fit within the Lightning system. McDonagh, who might be ready to play in Tuesday’s game against the Florida Panthers, is considered to be the better shutdown guy who has the more well-rounded game than Karlsson. “McDonagh is one of the most well-rounded defensemen in the league,” said two-time Stanley Cup-winning defenseman Brian Engblom, the Lightning’s Fox Sports Sun color analyst. “He’s a No. 1 on any team — a 1A-1B with Victor Hedman, and that’s only because Victor is Victor. (McDonagh) thinks about the right net first. “That doesn’t mean he’s not good passing the puck or making plays. He can play in any situation. He’s really mobile, really smart. He covers up a lot of mistakes by other people. He’s pretty much everything you want to list in an all-around defenseman.”
  • Montreal Canadiens goaltender Carey Price skated for the first time since suffering a condition on Feb. 22, according to TVA Sports Renaud Lavoie. While he still has a ways to go, the hope is that Price will be able to practice with the team soon. Price has had a tough season as the 30-year-old has struggled with injuries. He has a 2.98 GAA and a .904 save percentage, which is not great for a goalie whose eight-year, $84MM extension kicks in next season.
  • Postmedia’s Kristen Anderson writes that Calgary Flames winger Micheal Ferland will return to action on Monday on the team’s top line against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Ferland, who is having a breakout season, has missed the last four games with an undisclosed injury. He has 20 goals and 14 assists this season, a career-best.

West Notes: Vancouver, Brodeur, Vegas

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After originally leaking out last week, news is set to come down tomorrow about the host city for the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. That would be Vancouver, if today’s additional report by Sportsnet is to be believed. It will be the third time Vancouver will play host to the league, after first holding the event in 1990.

Jack Hughes, and American-born center who grew up in Toronto, is the early favorite to go first-overall after finding incredible success this season with the US Development Program. Hughes is just 16 at the moment, but scored 159 points in 80 games last season in his final year of midget, and has 128 in 67 games at various development levels this year.

  • A familiar NHL name will be suiting up for the San Jose Barracuda in the coming days, as Jeremy Brodeur has signed a PTO with the club. Brodeur has been playing for the Allen Americans of the ECHL, where he has a .919 save percentage through 35 games. The son of Hall of Famer Martin Brodeur, and grandson of Olympic medalist Denis Brodeur, the 21-year old has quite the family history of goaltending to live up to.
  • The Vegas Golden Knights were probably the closest team to acquiring Erik Karlsson at the trade deadline, according to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required). The Detroit Red Wings were sitting around waiting to see whether their deal for Tomas Tatar would go through, while the Golden Knights dealt with another “major transaction” until close to the deadline. Vegas was willing to take on Bobby Ryan’s massive contract, which could play in their favor in the summer months if Karlsson’s name is brought up once again.

Snapshots: Karlsson, Maroon, Anderson

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Erik Karlsson didn’t request a trade, and he is happy the deadline is behind him. That’s what he told the media today, and explained that he would be open to an extension with the team if their plans line up.

I love this city, I love this community. I love everything about it. I’ve been here for a very long time and I’ve made Ottawa my home and it’s always going to be my home. So when that time comes, I hope that there’s a place for me in the future and that this team is going in the direction that I would like to for us to have a chance to win in the near future.

Karlsson was the biggest name on the market yesterday, with teams like Tampa Bay and Vegas interested right until the end. Many believed that was because the Ottawa Senators aren’t prepared to give him a massive long-term contract when his current deal expires in the summer of 2019. Though it would be tough for him to say anything else at this point, Karlsson has always maintained that he loves Ottawa and would want to spend his entire career there. If something has changed in the last few weeks, he isn’t sharing.

  • The package the Edmonton Oilers received for pending free agent Patrick Maroon was underwhelming, and now we might know why. Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli today told 630CHED that he only received a single offer for Maroon, and that it came just five minutes before the deadline. The New Jersey Devils acquired Maroon for a 2019 third-round pick and the rights to J.D. Dudek, a role player with Boston College who is likely to return for his senior season. That Maroon didn’t create much interest is likely due to the belief that his offensive outburst last season is tied directly to Connor McDavid, after the big winger scored 27 goals, the first time he’d totaled more than 12 in a single season.
  • Josh Anderson was injured last night after Dmitry Orlov delivered a hip check in the Columbus-Washington game, and according to Aaron Portzline of The Athletic is awaiting the results of further tests to determine how long he’ll be out. Anderson is an extremely versatile forward and an important part of the Blue Jackets’ attack. How long he’s out for could dramatically impact the playoff race in the Eastern Conference, where Columbus currently sits in the second wildcard position. With four teams within seven points of the Blue Jackets (including the Florida Panthers who hold four games in hand), they’ll need someone to immediately step up and fill Anderson’s shoes if he is out for any length of time.

Senators, Karlsson Trying To Get Trade Done By Deadline

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The Ottawa Senators and Erik Karlsson are both working hard on making a deal happen by the trade deadline with the Tampa Bay Lightning being the leading candidate to acquire the star defenseman, according to Elliotte Friedman Saturday on Hockey Night in Canada.

“Whatever gets said, the belief is the Ottawa Senators want to try to make this happen and Erik Karlsson wants it to happen, and they have been grinding away in the last two or three days to see if they can,” Friedman said. “Obviously Tampa Bay is a leading contender, I think they’ve thrown several different proposals at each other.”

While negotiations haven’t reached their final stages, other teams have also shown interest in Karlsson, including the Nashville Predators, San Jose Sharks and the Vegas Golden Knights.

The idea that Karlsson could end up in Tampa Bay is not unrealistic considering he is close friends with fellow Swede Victor Hedman. The two playing on the Lightning’s blueline could be the ultimate piece for a team that want to win a Stanley Cup this year. However, what would be the cost? While Tampa Bay has quite a lot of solid prospects they could deal, Ottawa would almost definitely be looking for a major piece from the team’s active roster with names such as Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde and Vladislav Namestnikov, rumored to be names that Ottawa would want back.

“I’m sure the names Brayden Point and Yanni Gourde have come up, but at the very least it might even cost them [Vladislav] Namestnikov and we know how important he is to the first line in Tampa Bay,” said Kypreos on the same segment of Hockey Night in Canada. “But Ottawa wants a major piece back.”

Friedman added in the segment that he believes if Ottawa is willing to accept Namestnikov as the centerpiece of the deal, “that’s something that Tampa would do.” However, the real question is what else would Ottawa want? The team is unlikely to part with 19-year-old Mikhail Sergachev, who seems to have turned the corner after recent struggles.

You also have to factor in the injury to Ondrej Palat, who is out for another two or three weeks with what many believe is a high ankle sprain. Does the team have enough depth to survive without a Namestnikov, who is a major influence on the team’s first line. The 25-year-old is having a breakout season with 20 goals and 24 assists in 62 games this year. He is only making $1.94MM this year, but will be a restricted free agent next year, which could make him harder to sign for the future.

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