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Saturday Snapshots: Final Saturday Of The Regular Season

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8:48pm: The Toronto Maple Leafs defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins 5-3, clinching a playoff spot for the first time since 2013. Despite losing goaltender Frederik Andersen, the Leafs rallied for three goals in the third to punch their ticket to the playoffs. TSN’s Bob McKenzie sums up the seedings with tomorrow’s results. If Toronto gets one point tomorrow, they will take on Ottawa in the first round while Boston faces off against Washington. Should they lose, they draw Washington and the Bruins get Ottawa.

2:54 pm: Today is the second last day of the regular season, and as such, there’s a lot going on around the National Hockey League. The entire playoff bracket can be finalized this evening, stars will be healthy scratched, and milestones hit.

Playoff Matchups:

  • Two Eastern Conference matchups have already been set: Canadiens vs Rangers and Penguins vs Blue Jackets. Another could be set tonight, if Toronto, Ottawa, and Boston all win. That would mean Capitals vs Maple Leafs. Should the Maple Leafs lose while the other two win, then that would guarantee Senators vs Bruins.
  • Wild vs Blues is clinched by a St. Louis win or a Nashville loss.
  • Oilers vs Sharks would be clinched by:
    • An Oilers extra-time loss vs the Canucks tonight, OR
    • An Oilers regulation loss and a Sharks loss in any fashion.
  • Blackhawks vs Predators happens if:
    • The Predators lose in regulation, OR
    • The Flames win and the Blues get a single point, OR
    • The Flames and Predators both lose in OT.
  • The Flames would take on the Ducks if:
    • The Oilers lose, the Blues get a point, and the Flames win, OR
    • The Oilers lose, and both the Flames and Predators lose in OT, OR
    • The Oilers lose, and the Predators lose in regulation.
  • The Flames would take on the Blackhawks if Calgary loses and the Predators win.
  • The Ducks would take on the Predators if:
    • Both Edmonton and Calgary lose, and the Predators win, OR
    • Nashville gets a point, while Edmonton loses and Calgary loses in regulation.

Other clinching scenarios:

  • The Oilers clinch home-ice with a single point. They visit Vancouver tonight, and host them tomorrow.
  • The Ducks clinch the Pacific Division with an Oilers loss of any kind.
  • To pass Anaheim and win the Pacific, the Oilers would need to sweep the Canucks this weekend and have Anaheim lose to Los Angeles tomorrow.
  • Should the Toronto Maple Leafs win tonight against the visiting Pittsburgh Penguins, Toronto will clinch a playoff spot for the first time since 2013. That would eliminate the New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning.
  • The Islanders could also be eliminated with a regulation loss or any kind of loss if the Maple Leafs get a single point.
  • UPDATE: Ottawa clinched home ice by defeating the Rangers, 3-1.
    • They defeat the Rangers today, OR
    • Boston and Toronto lose in regulation, OR
    • The Bruins and Senators each get a single point combined with a Maple Leafs OT loss.

Scratches:

Milestones:

  • Oilers captain Connor McDavid could become just the fifth player to score 100 points since 2010. He’s sitting at 97 points in 80 games, the seventh-most points in a season during in that time frame. Only Evgeni Malkin, Daniel Sedin, Crosby, and Patrick Kane have cracked the century-mark this decade. McDavid is nine points ahead of Crosby and Kane for the NHL scoring lead, and looks poised to take home the Art Ross in his first full season at age 20.
  • With one more goal this season, Auston Matthews can become the fifteenth rookie in NHL history to score 40 goals. Currently, he’s tied with Crosby, Steve Yzerman, and Peter and Anton Stastny at 39. Kings’ coach Darryl Sutter, Sylvain Turgeon, and Warren Young all scored 40 goals in their rookie seasons.

PHR Originals: 3/27/17 – 4/1/17

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Pro Hockey Rumors had a number of original articles this week as the regular season winds down and the playoffs beckon. Here are a few from the past week:

  • Brett analyzed the Edmonton Oilers’ first line dominance and how it has played a tremendous role in the success of the team this season.  While the Oilers’ renaissance certainly got its jumpstart from Connor McDavid, it’s the play of others who have certainly helped the team reach the playoffs for the first time in 11 years.
  • Meanwhile, I took a closer look at the rebuild situation that the Red Wings are facing and some concerning elements that have arisen over the past few years that GM Ken Holland will have to navigate.
  • Gavin highlighted the surprising yet impressive performance by Patrick Eaves, who has notched 29 goals this season between the Dallas Stars and Anaheim Ducks. He also notes that no one in the hockey world–including your humble writers here at PHR–saw this performance coming. In addition to Eaves, Gavin wrote about Toby Enstrom and how after going through a season ending knee surgery, it may be in the Jets best interest to find a way to have him waive his no movement clause.
  • Finally, Gavin also answered many of your questions during a live chat. In addition to providing sound hockey analysis, he’s also open to fantasy baseball advice for replacing Jeurys Familia.

Edmonton’s First Line Dominance

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With a win this evening, the Edmonton Oilers could move into first place in the Pacific Division. Hands up if you saw this coming back in October.

The Oilers haven’t really had trouble scoring goals over the past few years, but with players like Nikita Nikitin and Andrew Ference playing top-four minutes, and Ben Scrivens and Viktor Fasth in the crease, the team didn’t have a chance at a winning record. With the additions of Adam Larsson, Andrej Sekera, and Kris Russell and the emergence of Oscar Klefbom and Cam Talbot, the Oilers finally have a solid back end. While Larsson cost them one of the best left wingers in the NHL in Taylor Hall, the Oilers offence isn’t hurting.

Connor McDavid, Patrick Maroon, and Leon Draisaitl have formed one of the most dangerous lines in hockey. McDavid is leading the NHL in scoring with 91 points in 77 games, Draisaitl is currently tenth with 72 in 77, and Maroon has more than double his previous career-high with 27 goals and 41 points.

While McDavid and Draisaitl’s dominance isn’t altogether unexpected, Maroon’s career-year is. The 20-year-old McDavid is the arguably the best player in the NHL and Draisaitl was the third-overall pick in 2014. But Maroon is a bit of a different case; he was a sixth-round pick back in 2007.

After two up-and-down years in Anaheim with 29 and 34 points and a good playoffs in 2015, Maroon fell to the Ducks’ fourth line. He was dealt to Edmonton at last year’s trade deadline for minor-league defenseman Martin Gernát and a fourth-round pick, with the Ducks retaining 25 per cent of Maroon’s $2MM salary. After just 13 points in 56 games with Anaheim, Maroon scored 14 points in 16 games with Edmonton. The big winger was challenged by the organization to get into better shape, with ice-time alongside McDavid used as a carrot. Maroon lost 25 pounds in the off-season, and quickly played his way onto McDavid’s wing. Even when he’s not scoring, he does other things to help. TSN’s Jamie McLennan pointed to Maroon’s nine fights and physical play, complimenting him for “bringing something else to the table.” He’s been a feel-good story and is the Oilers’ nominee for the Masterton Trophy for dedication to hockey.

McDavid and Draisaitl are both on nine-game point streaks, with 16 points apiece in those nine games. Add in Maroon’s nine points in those nine games and their top line has 41 points in the last nine games. The Oilers are 8-1-0 in those nine games, clinching a playoff spot for the first time since 2005-06 with their sights set on 100 points and the Pacific Division title.

NHL Comparables For Top Draft Propects

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While free agency and trades tend to grab most of the offseason headlines, the annual entry draft is generally far more important to NHL teams. Controllable young talent is the life blood of any successful organization and the best way to secure that talent is through the draft. While this year’s draft crop perhaps lacks the “generational” type of player that we’ve seen in each of the two previous years (Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews), there is no shortage of young players who will be selected this June who will go on to have successful NHL careers.

A common approach when discussing 17 and 18-year-old draft prospects is to compare their potential upsides to those of present day or past NHL stars. Sidney Crosby was often compared to a young Wayne Gretzky, not solely due to possessing similar, elite offensive abilities, but also because he exuded the traits of a player that could be one of the game’s great ambassadors. McDavid, in turn was compared to a young Crosby for many of those same reasons.

In an interesting piece appearing on NHL.com, Mike Morreale takes a stab at comparing a handful of the top 2017 draft prospects to some of the day’s top NHL stars using analysis from NHL Central Scouting. Among them is potential #1 overall pick Nolan Patrick, who the scribe compares to Los Angeles Kings center Anze Kopitar, citing the former’s hockey sense and vision as the youngster’s best assets. Like the 6-foot-3, 224-pound Kopitar, Patrick has great size (6-foot-3, 198-pounds) and according to Central Scouting, his “playmaking ability with the size and reach is tremendous.”

If Patrick is not chosen first overall then that honor may well go to Nico Hischier of the QMJHL’s Halifax Mooseheads. Morreale cites Washington pivot Nicklas Backstrom as Hischier’s possible NHL comparable, identifying the latter’s hockey sense and skating ability as his top attributes. Central Scouting says “he plays a complete game but is very good offensively.”

Other prospects to make an appearance are Gabriel Vilardi and Owen Tippett, from Windsor and Mississauga of the OHL respectively, as well as USHL stars Casey Mittelstadt and Kevin Petruzzelli.

While it’s natural to project young players into some of the stars of today’s game, it’s important to note that these comparisons essentially represent the bast case scenarios for each of the prospect’s in their long term development. The words prospect and suspect are sometimes used interchangeably, reminding us that no matter how talented the prospect may be, any number of factors can prevent him from reaching his full potential. Every team hopes their top draft pick turns into a Crosby, Backstrom or Kopitar but the possibility remains that instead they end up with the next Patrik Stefan, Rostislav Klesla or Pavel Vorobiev. That same fate could befall any, or all of 2017’s top draft prospects.

Snapshots: Crosby, World Championships, Oilers

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It was a controversial week for Sidney Crosby.

He appeared to slash Sabres forward Ryan O’Reilly in a sensitive area, then broke Senators defenseman Marc Methot’s finger in half with another whack. The latter incident resulted in a pretty ugly injury (NSFW) and some angry comments from Senators owner Eugene Melnyk.

Melnyk told TSN 1200 that the league needs to “hammer these [players who slash]… you say you know what? You are done for 10 games.  We all know who [Crosby] is. The guy is a whiner beyond belief. You do this kind of stuff—I don’t care who you are in the league, I don’t care if you’re the number one player in the league—you should sit out a long time for this kind of crap.”

The comments were criticized by fans and media; Mike Johnson called the comments “off base” and tweeted a video of Senators players slashing opponents. Senators captain Erik Karlsson defended Crosby by saying plays like that “happen all the time.”

Ahead of Sunday’s game versus Philadelphia, Crosby responded to Melnyk’s comments. After declining to comment, Crosby said “he likes to hear himself talk, so let’s leave it.”

Superstars like Crosby are often the target of those little “whacks”; small slashes that go uncalled. Earlier this season, Johnny Gaudreau missed 10 games after being whacked at least 20 times by different Wild players in the same game.

“I’d love to see them crack down on it,” said Crosby. “It’s something that happens a lot… Obviously [Methot is] an example where if you get it in the wrong spot, it can hurt. Hopefully he’s back out there soon.”

  • The USA Women’s National Team is boycotting the upcoming Women’s World Championships over a dispute with USA Hockey. The players are currently paid just $6K for the six months leading up to the Olympics, and nothing else. The players want fair wages and for USA Hockey to put more money into the program to grow the women’s game. USA Hockey has been asking (and being declined by) high school players to play in their stead. Now the Men’s Program may be getting involved. Player Agent Allan Walsh reported that American NHL players may refuse to play in this spring’s World Championships in solidarity; the NHLPA has already come out in support of the women. Last year, the American side finished fourth in the tournament, the rosters for which are populated by NHLers who are no longer in Cup contention and the occasional draft-eligible player.
  • After Leon Draisaitl cracked the 70-point barrier on Saturday night, the Edmonton Oilers will have two 70-point scorers (the other being Connor McDavid with 88 points) for the first time in 11 years. The last time they did, it was Ales Hemsky and Shawn Horcoff with 77 and 73 points respectively in 2005-06. Incidentally, that’s the last time they made the playoffs. The Oilers have also surpassed 90 points for the first time since 05-06, and if they manage to finish first in their division (currently tied with San Jose and Anaheim for first), then it will mark the first division win since 1986-87.

David Pastrnak & Leon Draisaitl: The Next Contract

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The 2016 restricted free agent market was one of the most talented – and most entertaining – in recent memory. As hockey moves more and more toward youthful skill and speed, the dynamics of team building have changed as well, as last summer marked the “death of the bridge deal“. A multitude of massive extensions for young players were handed out, including giant new deals for forwards like Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon, Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele, Calgary duo Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau, and Florida pair Jonathan Huberdeau and Vincent Trocheck. The 2017 RFA group is no slouch either; it features star scorers such as Minnesota’s Mikael Granlund, Vancouver’s Bo Horvat, Nashville’s Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson, the Tampa Bay trio of Jonathan Drouin, Tyler Johnson, and Ondrej Palat and more.

Yet, the two most intriguing restricted free agents are the youngest of the group: 20-year-old Boston Bruins right winger David Pastrnak and 21-year-old Edmonton Oilers center Leon Draisaitl. Last summer opened the door for the game-changing pair to skip right over an affordable short-term deal that would keep them restricted into a third contract for the “prime” of their career. Now, Pastrnak and Draisaitl have the newly-minted industry standard option of asking for a six- to eight-year deal, lasting well into their late 20’s, worth somewhere in the range of $5-7MM annually. So what exactly will the new contracts look like this summer?

Pastrnak’s agent, J.P. Barry, is on the record as saying that his client is looking for a long-term deal and they are viewing the contracts of Monahan, Scheifele, and Filip Forsberg as comparisons. Forsberg signed a six-year, $36MM extension last June, worth $6MM annually, while Monahan re-signed for $6.375 per year for seven seasons and Sheifele agreed to $6.125MM a year for the maximum eight seasons. The only problem for Pastrnak and his representation in making those comparisons is the consistency argument. Pastrnak has an impressive 64 points through 68 games so far this season, much like Monahan’s 63 point total last year. However, Monahan also put up 62 points the year before and 34 as a rookie. He was only slightly older than Pastrnak when he agreed to an extension, but had far greater production in his first two seasons when compared to Pastrnak’s back-to-back mid-20’s performances. Scheifele also had a similar season to Pastrnak’s last year with 61 points in 71 games, but he too outperformed the young Czech the prior two seasons – and was two years older – when inking his eight-year mega deal. Like Monahan, Forsberg had consecutive 60+-point seasons before earning his new deal.

The Monahan, Scheifele, and Forsberg comparison works far better for Draisaitl. Now in his third NHL season, but still just 21, Draisaitl leads all impending RFA’s with 70 points on the year, following up his breakout 51-point campaign in 2015-16. With back-to-back strong seasons, like the previously described trio, Draisaitl should be comfortably within the $6-6.5MM annual range for his upcoming contract. The Oilers will have to keep in mind the possible record-setting deal awaiting them in Connor McDavid next year, but will not hesitate to pay Draisaitl, who is already one the best #2 centers in the NHL. While a very different player, Draisaitl’s early career arc closely resembles that of Gaudreau, and “Johnny Hockey” signed on for six more years in Calgary at $6.75 per, so don’t be surprised if Draisaitl actually ends up exceeding the $6-6.5MM annual range in his new deal or agrees to seven or eight years as compensation for a lower yearly value.

So what of Pastrnak? No one doubts that he will continue producing at a high level, especially with Boston’s top offensive stars like Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, and David Backes signed long-term and in influx of promising talent on it’s way. However, with just one – albeit unbelievable – high-scoring season under his belt, Pastrnak may not be able to crack that $6MM per year mark. Some may point to MacKinnon, the youngest and arguably most talented RFA to re-sign last year, and say that Pastrnak should get the same seven-year contract worth $6.3MM annually. However, MacKinnon was a #1 overall pick and had established himself as a top-line center with a 63-point rookie season in 2013-14, far ahead of where Pastrnak was at that point, which cancels out some of his more recent struggles. Instead, a better comparison is likely Panthers scorers Trocheck and Huberdeau. Like Pastrnak, Trocheck and Huberdeau found only middling success in their first two NHL seasons. Trocheck had a big breakout last year, jumping to 53 points in 76 games, and was rewarded with a six-year deal worth $4.75MM per year. Huberdeau had his breakout in 2014-15 with 54 points and then backed it up 59 points last season, before inking a six-year extension worth $5.9MM annually. What Pastrnak has done this year clearly surpasses anything that the Florida duo have yet to put up and Trocheck and Huberdeau were also two years older than Pastrnak will be when they re-signed, but they set up a more accurate range for what the Bruins wunderkind should expect this summer. Taking likely cap inflation into consideration, Pastrnak is looking at a six-year extension worth $5-6MM per season. Given the Bruins recent issues with retaining young talent, it’s a fair assumption that they won’t play hardball with the young sniper, so expecting the upper side of that scale is perfectly reasonable.

Oilers Notes: Hart Trophy, Lander, Hall

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The Edmonton Oilers may have lost a big game to their division rivals in Anaheim last night, but it was a big night for their captain, Connor McDavid.

McDavid scored a goal and three points to increase his lead at the top of the scoring race. He now has 85 points in 73 games, which is four points more than Sidney Crosby has, albeit in 66 games. Brad Marchand and Patrick Kane each have 80 points in 73 games.

While he’s leading the scoring race, a bigger question is where he’s at in the MVP race. While Cam Talbot has been superb for the Oilers this season, there’s no question that McDavid is the main reason for the team’s rise up the standings. The Oilers surpassed last season’s win total in mid-February, and have improved their goal differential by 63 goals. They finished in 29th last season, and are currently sitting in a divisional playoff spot this season. The biggest difference between this year and last? McDavid is healthy and arguably tied with Crosby for the title of best player in the NHL. Winning the scoring race would clear things up; in the past five years, the Hart has gone to either the Art Ross or Rocket Richard winner four times.

If McDavid does end up winning the Hart Trophy for league MVP, he will be the first Oilers player to win a major award since Andrew Ference won the King Clancy Award for off-ice leadership in 2013-14. McDavid would be the first Oiler to win an award for on-ice play since 1989-90 when Mark Messier and Bill Ranford took home the Hart, Lindsay, and Conn Smythe.

  • Oilers minor-league centre Anton Lander has signed with Ak Bars Kazan of the KHL for next season, according to KHL insider Aivis Kalniņš. A former second-round, Lander has struggled at the NHL level with just 35 points in 215 games. His only sustained success was back in 2014-15, when he scored 20 points in 38 games. But in the AHL, Lander is dominant. He has 22 goals and 46 points in 31 games this season for the Bakersfield Condors. The deal will be announced after the AHL season ends, and will make Lander one of the highest-paid imports in the KHL according to Kalniņš. Back in October, we reported on the top KHL salaries, and the highest-paid import on the list was Stephane Da Costa who makes approximately $1.3MM USD. That range would be a nice raise over Lander’s current contract which pays him $990K. It seems unlikely that the Oilers will tender Lander a qualifying offer in the spring.
  • Taylor Hall may not be in Edmonton anymore, but he can’t escape the questions about his former team. Hall was asked today if he would watch and cheer for the Oilers in the playoffs. His answer? “No.” After six bottom-ten finishes with the Oilers, Hall once again finds himself at the bottom of the standings with the Devils while his former team is going to make the playoffs. Sportsnet’s Luke Fox quoted Hall as saying the situation has “a weird dynamic. You’re happy for your friends, that they’re doing well and they’re going to experience the playoffs, but you can’t help but be a bit jealous.”

Penguins Notes: Crosby, Malkin, Rust

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Sidney Crosby is this week’s second star in the NHL, after his sizzling hat trick on Sunday night. The Penguins captain broke 40 goals for just the second time in his illustrious career, while retaking the lead in the Rocket Richard race and tying Connor McDavid for the league-lead in point.

The 29-year old Crosby is doing most of his damage 5-on-5, leading the league in even strength goals with 28. His dominance comes in just the fourth year of his twelve-year, $104.4MM deal he signed in 2012. The contract sees him cause just an $8.7MM annual cap-hit, mostly because of the three extremely cheap seasons tacked on at the end. That means Pittsburgh will only have to pay a 35-year old Crosby $3MM in 2022-23, likely still an unbelievable bargain.

The Best Deal Of The Offseason: Brad Marchand

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When you think back on any signing season, your mind immediately goes to the big deals handed out to free agents. This season saw over $600MM dollars handed out on the first day of free agency, and was followed by a lucrative summer for tons of players. Because of the lack of a superstar name—thanks Steven, you couldn’t just wait another couple of days?—second-tier all-stars were given incredibly lucrative contracts. Recently, our Zach Leach took a look back at July 1st and the mistakes teams made, handing out term and money to players who were perhaps already over the hill.

Brad MarchandBut this offseason’s best deal may not have come until much later in the summer. In fact it didn’t happen in the summer at all, but on September 26th just a few weeks before the Boston Bruins would start their season. The Bruins were getting ready for their preseason debut against the Columbus Blue Jackets—a game they would lose in a shootout—while two thirds of their top line was prepping for the World Cup of Hockey final in Toronto.

It was that morning of the 26th that Bob McKenzie of TSN would report that the Bruins had completed a contract extension with Brad Marchand that would see him stay in Boston for another eight years. He would be paid $6.125MM each season with several different clauses attached. Even though he was starring at the World Cup alongside Sidney Crosby—and would score the tournament winning goal just a few days later, shorthanded with 44 seconds left—many people thought the deal was a huge overpay. In fact, the replies to McKenzie’s tweet are mixed at best, with it being hard to understand the value Marchand brought to the Bruins.

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Playoff Puzzle: Western Goaltending Experience

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Corey Crawford must feel like an old man these days. When the Chicago Blackhawks goaltender looks around at the creases of his main rivals in the Western Conference, one thing is constant: inexperience. He knows it well, from when he took on the Vancouver Canucks in 2011 as a rookie. At the other end of the rink was a 31-year old Roberto Luongo, who had already been through three playoff runs and was about to win the Jennings trophy for dominating in the regular season.

Crawford and the Hawks would lose in seven games, but it was an important step towards their cup win in 2013 when he would post a .932 save percentage—still the best mark of his career. It’s not easy to backstop a team to the Stanley Cup, even if you do have an excellent group in front of you. Just ask Martin Jones, who actually played his best hockey last year in the Finals against Pittsburgh, despite losing. It took a while for him to really find his groove and even then it wasn’t enough.

So when Crawford sees the standings and notices a trend among the biggest contenders, it might make him even more confident heading into this year’s tournament. Perhaps even if he is a bit older, that experience will pay off in the toughest two months of any sport.

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