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Oilers Notes: Free Agents, Draisaitl, Eberle, Pouliot

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The Edmonton Oilers were eliminated by the Anaheim Ducks in Game 7 on Wednesday night; now comes the post-season autopsies and plans for the coming summer.

The face of the franchise and perhaps the league, Connor McDavid is eligible to sign an extension on July 1. Pending-RFA Leon Draisaitl lead the Oilers in playoff scoring after finishing eighth in the NHL during the regular season. Those two players will go from entry-level contracts to somewhere between $16-20MM by next summer.

The upcoming McDavid contract has already been the subject of much digital ink. Now, Draisaitl’s breakout season has lead to questions about what he’s worth. At the beginning of the year, the debate was bridge-deal or long-term. After a 77-point campaign, it’s clear that the Oilers will be looking long-term with their young star. Over at Sportsnet, Jonathan Willis explored previous contracts for comparable stars. Based on contracts signed by players like Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Anze Kopitar, and Johnny Gaudreau, Willis writes that Draisaitl’s new contract ought to be in the $6 to $6.5MM range. However, because of Draisaitl’s 37-game rookie season and the influence of McDavid, Willis notes that both sides have leverage.

Other free agents include Kris Russell, Zack Kassian, and Matt Hendricks. Hendricks will certainly be off the books, clearing close to $2MM. Russell will be interesting, as he’s the only member of the regular top-six who’s not under contract next season. If the Oilers want to improve their blue line, then Russell’s spot is the clear choice to upgrade.

  • On Thursday morning, the Oilers announced that Draisaitl will join Germany at the IIHF World Championships in Paris, France, and Cologne, Germany.  The native of Cologne ought to help Germany’s chances, as the team has just one regulation win in four games so far. It’s been a busy season for Draisaitl, who has played 104 games since mid-August beginning with the Olympic Qualifiers, the World Cup of Hockey, all 82 NHL regular season games, and then 13 NHL playoff games.
  • Eberle’s poor regular season and playoffs may mean he’s on the way out. He didn’t score a single goal during the playoffs, and was even outscored by Nashville goaltender Pekka Rinne by a score of three assists to two.  As Sportsnet’s Luke Fox puts it, “You’re selling low on Jordan Eberle, but you’re still selling, right?” Provided the Oilers can find more scoring depth on the right wing, then expect Eberle to be on his way out. Fox suggests Carolina, New Jersey, and Vegas as possible trade partners.
  • Left-winger Benoit Pouliot also struggled mightily this season, with just 14 points in the regular season and none in the playoffs. He also comes at a $4MM price tag, which makes any trade unlikely. He’ll be exposed to Vegas, with perhaps a prospect or pick offered as a sweetner. Failing that, a buyout could be the next option. It was a bad year, but Pouliot has previously scored a solid rate while being an aggressive forechecker and good penalty-killer. His penchant for bad penalties got him in coach Todd McLellan’s doghouse and he couldn’t play his way out.

Ted Lindsay Finalists Released

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The NHL has revealed the three finalists for the Ted Lindsay Award: Brent Burns, Sidney Crosby, and Connor McDavid.

The award goes to the player judged to be the most outstanding player in the league. The biggest difference between the Hart and the Lindsay is who votes; the Hart is voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA) and the Lindsay is voted on by NHL players. It’s for this reason that players often seen the Lindsay as a more prestigious award to win, as it’s voted on by their peers.

Burns had a fantastic season, finishing ninth in NHL scoring. His 29 goals and 76 points were the highest by a defenseman, six more than Senators captain Erik Karlsson. Burns lead the Sharks in scoring by eight points (Joe Pavelski had 68), and was the most dangerous player on the ice for the Sharks on most nights. Going against Burns, however, is his 16-game goalless drought towards the end of the season. After scoring 27 goals in 59 games, Burns didn’t score between February 19 and March 28. However, that also illustrates the sheer dominance of Burns prior to the drought. Also, Karlsson had 82 points in 82 games in 2015-16 and failed to even be nominated for Lindsay or Hart. The last time a defenseman won the Award was 1974-75 when some guy named Bobby Orr won it.

Crosby is the only finalist who has won the award before, having won it three times in 2006-07, 2012-13, and 2013-14. Crosby had 44 goals and 89 points in 75 games this season. His 44 goals were good to win the Rocket Richard Trophy for the NHL’s leading goal scorer. Crosby scored 17 more points than his Penguins teammate Evgeni Malkin. Crosby is three-for-three when nominated for the Award.

However, the odds-on favorite is likely Oilers captain McDavid, who was the only 100-point scorer in the NHL this season. The 20-year-old McDavid scored 30 goals and 100 points in 82 games, winning the Art Ross trophy by 11 points over Crosby and Patrick Kane, both of whom had 89 points. While the other two finalists play for perennial contenders, McDavid was a huge part of the Oilers’ jump up the standings from 29th to 8th in the league.

The winner will be revealed at the NHL Awards in Las Vegas on June 21.

Hart Trophy Finalists Announced

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The NHL’s Hart Trophy finalists were released today and include Columbus Blue Jackets goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, Pittsburgh Penguins forward Sidney Crosby, and Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid.

The names surprise no one as all three were expected finalists. Crosby and McDavid were one and two in NHL scoring, and Bobrovsky led the league in GAA and SV% amongst starting NHL goaltenders.

Bobrovsky, as noted by the Blue Jackets’ Public Relations team, is the first MVP finalist in Blue Jackers history. He posted a .931 SV% and a 2.06 GAA in 63 games. He was considered Columbus’s best player in a surprising season for the Metropolitan Division team. He’s also a finalist for the NHL’s Vezina Trophy awarded to the league’s best goaltender.

Sidney Crosby finished tied for 2nd in league scoring with 44G and 45A in 75 games. He tied Chicago Blackhawks forward Patrick Kane in points with 89, but did it in seven fewer games. Crosby has already locked up the Maurice “Rocket” Richard trophy for most goals this season. Crosby has been a Hart Trophy finalist six times, and won the award in 2007 and 2014

Connor McDavid led the NHL in scoring with 30G and 70A in 82 games. He led a Edmonton Oilers squad to its first playoff birth since 2006 in only his second pro season. This season he won the Art Ross Trophy for most points in the NHL.

Notable absences—thought to have finished fourth and lower—include Tampa Bay Lightning’s Nikita Kucherov, Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews, and Boston Bruins forward Brad Marchand.

NHL Draft Lottery Results

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The lottery balls were picked, the cards were flipped, and the New Jersey Devils will be selecting first in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft. New Jersey was the winner of this year’s NHL Draft Lottery, jumping up four spots to take over the top pick. Against all odds, just an 8.5% chance at #1, they will now have their pick of all the top available prospects come Friday, June 23rd. The Philadelphia Flyers will pick second and the Dallas Stars will pick third, as the balls fell their way as well. Philadelphia leaped forward eleven slots and Dallas up five slots.

With three teams “winning” the lottery, it’s a tough pill to swallow for the Colorado Avalanche. One of the worst teams in recent memory, the 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche finished the season with just 48 points, 21 less than the Vancouver Canucks at 29th. Yet, the Avs may miss out entirely on selecting a franchise player in a draft without a consensus star atop the charts. It’s also an unfortunate start for the expansion Vegas Golden Knights. Given the same odds at the third-worst team in the league, Vegas will instead select sixth and will be hard-pressed to find a player ready to jump immediately to the NHL, even though they’ll likely be hungry for help.

For Metropolitan Division foes New Jersey and Philadelphia, the question now becomes: who goes #1? Unlike the past two years – Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews – there is no consensus top prospect in 2017. Heading into 2016-17, Canadian forward Nolan Patrick, of the WHL’s Brandon Wheat Kings, was considered the favorite to go first overall. However, after a season filled with injuries, that status is far from a sure thing. The last player to be taken #1 following a final junior season spent mostly on the sidelines was Gord Kluzak by the Boston Bruins in 1982, and Kluzak played only four full NHL seasons before his injuries caught up with him. Patrick did score 46 points in 33 games this season, and racked up 102 points in just 72 games last season, but as they say, “the most important ability is availability”. Flying up draft boards over the last year has been Swiss center Nico Hischier of the QMJHL’s Halifax Mooseheads, and with questions lingering about Patrick, Hischier may wind up as 2017’s top pick. While Hischier doesn’t quite have the size and strength of Patrick, he has all the offensive ability. The swift scorer recorded 86 points in 57 games this season for Halifax and put on a show for Switzerland at the World Juniors.

It’s a difficult choice for the Devils, but one that GM Ray Shero and the New Jersey front office are happy to make. And GM Ron Hextall and the Flyers should be content with the runner-up.

NHL Draft Lottery Notes: Odds, History, Viewing

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For the fourteen teams that missed the playoffs and the expansion Vegas Golden Knights, they have one thing in common: they’re hoping Bill Daly is holding a card with their logo on it, announcing that they have the first overall pick.

At 7pm central, NBC, CBC, and Sportsnet will show the NHL Draft Lottery as the Colorado Avalanche lead all teams in terms of percentage for receiving the #1 pick. Below are the odds:

Colorado Avalanche — 18.0%
Vancouver Canucks — 12.1%
Vegas Golden Knights — 10.3%
Arizona Coyotes — 10.3%
New Jersey Devils — 8.5%
Buffalo Sabres — 7.6%
Detroit Red Wings — 6.7%
Dallas Stars — 5.8%
Florida Panthers — 5.4%
Los Angeles Kings — 4.5%
Carolina Hurricanes — 3.2%
Winnipeg Jets — 2.7%
Philadelphia Flyers — 2.2%
Tampa Bay Lightning 1.8%
New York Islanders — 0.9%

TSN has a lengthy writeup on the history of the lottery and how the current format differs from other versions. The biggest change for the draft is that instead of the worst team being guaranteed, at worst, a second overall pick, they are only promised a top four pick. This was placed to discourage teams from “tanking” to draft top-end talent, which hasn’t completely negated the idea of tanking as Toronto won the right to draft Auston Matthews last season with the #1 pick while securing the worst record in the NHL.

What’s new to 2017?  From Sportsnet:

For just the second time in NHL draft lottery history, the top three picks are in play. This rule was implemented by the league in 2016 to dull incentive for any team to finish lower in the standings (i.e., tanking).

The odds of winning the second and third draws increases on a proportional basis depending on which team claimed the previous draw.

The addition of a 15th lottery team, Vegas, into the mix also affects the winning percentages.

This draft is different too, since the top two picks for the first time in three seasons are not considered the “generational talent” that Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Matthews or Patrik Laine were when looking back at the one and two overall picks respectively.

This isn’t to besmirch the top two candidates, Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier. After all, “can’t miss” prospects have fooled scouts and analysts before while prospects that scouts didn’t think were as good sometimes exceeded expectations.

But before the talent can be chosen, there needs to be an order. Tonight will determine that.

Specifics: 

Time: 7pm CST
Where to watch: CBC, Sportsnet, NBC

Playoff Notes: Rangers, Ducks, Oilers

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The Rangers could find themselves in a 2-0 hole tonight if they don’t make some adjustments writes the New York Post’s Brett Cyrgalis. The Rangers lost game one by the “thinnest of margins” after a fluke from Erik Karlsson sealed a 2-1 Senators victory. Cyrgalis reports that as the playoffs march on and the Rangers continue to compete, the possibility of hoisting the Stanley Cup becomes less and less far fetched. It’s why they have to play with intensity, while the Senators, according to Cyrgalis, are playing a great game of psychological warfare–using positive comments. He notes that Sens head coach Guy Boucher has a degree in sports psychology, and it feels as if they’re trying to lull the Rangers into a sense of security with compliments and by using words like “fear” to describe them. While it remains to be seen how the series goes, the Rangers must continue to build upon the strong play they exhibited against Montreal in order to continue playing into June.

  • LA Daily News writer Elliott Teaford tweets that the Ducks may be without Sami Vatanen, while Kevin Bieksa could be out for the series. The Ducks found themselves on the wrong side of a 2-1 game yesterday, and now trail the series to the Edmonton Oilers 2-0. Teaford also tweets that the Ducks talked a lot about regaining the puck luck they had against Calgary.
  • Meanwhile, Tim Campbell of NHL.com reports that the Oilers feel they still haven’t played their best hockey of the series yet. In an opinion shared by many, the Ducks have outplayed the Oilers but haven’t been rewarded for their efforts. Edmonton stole the first two games in Anaheim, and have a chance to close things out on home ice, thanks to the heroics of Cam Talbot. Connor McDavid, who has an assist in the series, is “adapting” and “adjusting” to the playoffs Campbell writes. McDavid has been shadowed by Ryan Kesler, and while many feel he’s been phased out as a result, head coach Todd McLellan believes his star player has been just fine, drawing penalties and opening up the ice for his teammates.

RFAs Looking For Playoff Payouts

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Every post-season, players look to make their mark. Relative unknowns break onto the scene, rookies steal the show, and goaltenders go from backup to fan-embraced starter. Contracts are always in the back of management’s thinking, however, and a strong post-season showing for a player can cost a team in dollars. Here are some restricted free agents who could stand to earn a more lucrative deal depending on how far their teams go and how bright they shine individually.

 

Ryan Johansen – NSH

Johansen will look to get a slight raise from his current $4.0 MM cap hit. A large determinant for whether he will see a take-home pay ($6.0 MM) decrease or not will be his performance in these playoffs. Johansen’s past two seasons have been fruitful in terms of points, 60 in 15-16 and 61 in 16-17, but not quite the numbers of the marquee offensive star Nashville fans were hoping for. This is a player who scored 33 goals in the 13-14 season, and was projected to consistently flirt with 80 points. Johansen’s imposing frame and play-style is a challenge for opposing centers, and he has undeniably improved his defensive prowess. Johansen only potted 14 goals this year, but it is fair to say his game has become more well-rounded. His Corsi For % took a massive hop from last season, taking a solid 52.3% to a remarkable 55.9% this past outing. Considering his quality of competition and his ability to provide solid two-way play, Johansen will be looking to prove his worth this post-season with a deep post-season run with the Predators.

Evgeny Kuznetsov – WAS

Washington’s Kuznetsov should definitely be considered part of the team’s core. At 24 years old, the center has already tallied a 77 point season and had a 5-goal playoff run. His inconsistency in terms of production could hinder his payday, however, as he struggled to regain his footing in what was essentially his third full season. He returned to form on the backend of the season, totaling a respectable if unremarkable 59 points. The flashy forward already has 3 points through 5 games against Toronto,  and a strong playoff showing can only help his position. With Nicklas Backstrom taking first-line duties and the red-hot Justin Williams on his wing, Kuznetsov could easily find himself in the spotlight again. Whether his next contract is a bridge deal at a lower cost or a long-term lock-down, Kuznetsov is certain to see a raise from his measly $3 MM.

Leon Draisaitl – EDM

Anyone who has watched Edmonton this season in hopes of catching a glimpse of Connor McDavid has undoubtedly been shocked and/or awed by the dominance of his 21 year-old linemate Draisaitl. Draisaitl’s vision with the puck and dogged determination make him a beautiful sight to behold. He accumulated an absurd 77 points this season, 29 goals and 48 assists, in what was only his second full season. The forward is already flirting with a point per game, and has shown remarkable chemistry with the generational talent McDavid. His flexibility in being able to shift from center to wing only makes him that much more valuable to the franchise. The Oilers will obviously pay whatever price is needed to lock up Draisaitl long-term, but the deeper the team goes, the better his bargaining position. He’s obviously going to get a fair deal more than his current $3.4 MM, likely upwards of $6 MM.

Conor Sheary – PIT

Conor Sheary had an incredible breakout season that practically no one, even Penguins fans, expected. On Sidney Crosby’s wing, the short-statured winger made himself absolutely invaluable. The chemistry the two showed together hadn’t really been seen since the likes of Hossa in Pittsburgh’s Finals run of 2007-08. Sheary is in a bit of a bind, however, as Jake Guentzel has shown equal or even greater chemistry with the league’s marquee center since being placed on the top line. Sheary struggled to find his groove in the first round series, even being demoted to the third line in favor of Patric Hornqvist. Sheary is a good bet to string together solid showings in the next round, but if he does not, perhaps it impacts his case for a long-term contract. Regardless, Sheary will look to eat up a large portion of the money allocated this offseason in Pittsburgh, as his current $0.925 MM cap hit is one of the best bargains in the league. His 53 points in 61 games placed him at 23rd in the league in points per game, ahead of the likes of Phil Kessel and John Tavares.

Mika Zibanejad – NYR

The Rangers organization loves this player, and it is easy to see why. His point totals had steadily increased the past three seasons, and he was looking to do so again if he did not miss so many games to injury. Zibanejad is a strong center who takes pride in his two-way ability. He has a solid shot, although he might be criticized for under-utlizing it, and is often deployed against opposing team’s top players. Considering that New York gave up the solid veteran Derick Brassard to acquire his skillset, they are nearly certain to double down on Zibanejad’s continued improvement. His role will only expand as the leadership of the team ages and he will be expected to fill some of the leadership void left behind. Zibanejad is up for a new contract, and will look for a sizable raise over his current $2.625 MM. There is perhaps still untapped offensive potential left in Zibanejad’s game, but will he display it in these playoffs? He has already potted 4 points in 6 games in the team’s successful series against Montreal, including an overtime winner.

Draisaitl Avoids Suspension, Receives Fine

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The NHL Department of Player Safety has opted not to suspend Edmonton forward Leon Draisaitl for his spear on Chris Tierney, but has decided instead to fine him a total of $2,569.44. In the second period of Game 4, which at the moment of infraction was well out of reach at 5-0, Draisaitl and Tierney engaged in the corner – after which Tierney successfully cycles the puck behind Edmonton net. In seeming frustration, Draisaitl re-raises his stick upwards into the nether-regions of Tierney, at which point Tierney is felled to the ice. Draisaitl received a 5-minute major penalty and a game misconduct. The incident can be viewed here.

The NHL Department of Player Safety continues to display why suspensions are so impossible to predict. The only recent corollary which didn’t receive a suspension was Sidney Crosby’s similar maneuver back in March against Ryan O’Reilly. This incident sparked a flurry of criticism against the Department of Player Safety for its seeming inconsistency, although there were many notable detractors who concurred with the league. Stars in today’s NHL undoubtedly need to carve out space for themselves, but this sort of low-blow is generally considered beyond acceptable, gentlemanly bounds. Brad Marchand, less of household name (even though he scored only 8 less points on the season), received a 2 game suspension for a remarkably analogous blow.

Granted, history of less-than-stellar behavior had a definitive role in the Marchand suspension, whereas Draisaitl and Crosby both had clean slates. There is also the undeniable factor that playoff suspensions are rarer and generally far less extreme. Oilers fans will no doubt cheer the fact that the young stud Draisaitl will be laced up for an extremely important Game 5. His 77 points on the season would be even more remarkable if they were not out-shined by the extraordinary glow of his fellow millennial Connor McDavid. In a series which might be franchise-defining, this is the best of news.

But the fact remains that at some point, there needs to be a standard set with a star player. $2,569 is little hardship for professional athletes at this compensation level. Although the explanations by the DoPS have been extremely helpful in trying to convey the league’s perspective, the punishments seem to fluctuate wildly. For now, the roulette wheel of justice spins on.

Would U.S. Ratings Be High For An All Canadian Team Final?

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With five out of six Canadian teams in the NHL playoffs, an interesting question was posed by Sportsnet’s Scott Moore: “Ask NBC how they would feel about an Edmonton-Montreal Stanley Cup final.”

This isn’t to besmirch the great Canadian cities of Edmonton or Montreal or their fans. Instead, it’s one of several articles focusing on how Canada is experiencing a rush of hockey pride with Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal, Ottawa, and Toronto all representing the country that gave us all hockey. Sportsnet expects a boon in ratings as a result while announcing blog Awful Announcing looked at how Sportsnet took a bath on ratings last season when not one Canadian team was represented in the playoffs. Viewership fell nearly fifty percent during last year’s playoffs, and heads rolled as a result. Much of the article that contained Moore’s quotes were from the New York Times.

Now with five teams in the playoffs, what are the expectations? With huge markets Toronto and Montreal in as well as dynamic young stars like Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, and Johnny Gaudreau all playing for Canadian teams, it’s certainly a bright future for ratings in Canada. It’s a well earned reward for suffering through a Canadian-less playoff last season.

Jun 12, 2016; San Jose, CA, USA; San Jose Sharks goalie <a rel=

More interesting though was the question posed about American ratings–should it be an all Canadian tilt: would Americans watch? After all, hockey isn’t exactly rivaling the NBA, NFL, or MLB in ratings or television contracts in the US. Last season’s San Jose-Pittsburgh Stanley Cup Final doesn’t inspire hope, either. Anthony Crupi of AdAge mocked the numbers, writing that a paltry four million viewers tuned it, making it the third worst Final rating since 2006 when NBC grabbed the rights. Crupi continues:

By way of comparison, the blowout-happy National Basketball Association finals on ABC are averaging a whopping 18.1 million viewers, a 10.4 household rating and a 6.5 in the demo through the first five games.

Crupi adds that poor scheduling and other sports distractions didn’t help, but his writing highlights what Moore called a concern for NBC. Would Americans tune in if it was an all-Canadian matchup?

Honestly, it depends on the matchup. Edmonton-Toronto would pit McDavid against Matthews. That’s certainly star appeal–should the NHL market it correctly. And that’s what it boils down to-marketing. At this current juncture, the NHL has a handful of young, rising stars who could rival the old Wayne Gretzky–Mario Lemieux arguments that dominated hockey in the late 80’s and early 90’s. Further, regardless of a team’s location, it’s about who is on the roster that ultimately matters. Forbes’ Alisha Grauso pointed out that last year’s Final was exciting–it ultimately suffered from bad scheduling. Additinally, Grauso wrote that hockey fans don’t watch to see hated teams lose. In this case, it wouldn’t draw an extra few million fans because they despise Sidney Crosby and the Penguins. Grauso’s point is that things are as bad as they seem.

So would Americans watch an all Canadian Final? I believe they would. But again, it would be more about the league properly scheduling, and marketing its stars instead of praying a big market team makes it again. Of course, teams with rich histories will always draw well. But it boils down to giving the game a chance to shine on a national stage–something the NHL has struggled to do for a long time.

Playoff Notes: Blackhawks-Predators, Matthews, McDavid

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Game one of the playoff series between Nashville and Chicago certainly didn’t play out how many expected. Not only did the Predators steal a game in Chicago, they managed to shut out one of the most potent offenses. The Chicago Tribune’s Steve Rosenbloom “dares” the Predators to try and play a similar game against the Blackhawks in Game two. Rosenbloom writes that the Preds played “old-time” hockey which saw a vintage style of play from the 90’s: get a goal and sit on the lead. Rosenbloom goes on, adding that the Hawks didn’t take advantage of several gifts from Nashville while also giving Preds netminder Pekka Rinne too easy of a job Thursday evening.

  • Meanwhile, the Tennessean’s Adam Vingan writes that while it shocked many, those in the Nashville locker room never doubted for a second that they could compete with their Central division rival. Vingan writes that the season series was much closer than people think, and that for the Preds to head home up 2-0, Rinne must be “sensational” like he was in the first game while Nashville must sustain the aggressiveness that made them a higher scoring team in the regular season. Nashville, Vingan adds, must not allow Chicago to dominate play as they did in the final two periods.
  • Yahoo’s Greg Wyshynski reports that the league is monitoring the ratings for the games involving young superstars Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews. NBC Sports Executive Producer Sam Flood believes that a long playoff run would only make McDavid and Matthews more likely to be on NBC next season. Flood added that NBC responded to the hype of both players, flexing in games with the young stars to guarantee them air time. The next three games for both players’ teams will be featured on the NBC Sports Network, instead of the USA network. Wyshynski advises hockey fans eager to see more of McDavid and Matthews should tune in to those games.

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