Erik Karlsson Not Likely To Get Moved To Vegas
With their season wrapping up much more quietly than the Washington Capitals, the Vegas Golden Knights will now look to continue their success next season. Due to the failed trade deadline move to acquire Ottawa’s Erik Karlsson many months ago, many people believe that Vegas general manager George McPhee will try to rekindle those trade talks.
The move would make quite a bit of sense since Vegas’ defense struggled against Washington during their Stanley Cup run as the Capitals dominated the neutral zone throughout the finals. And while the Golden Knights have many quality top-four defensemen, what the team is truly lacking is a No. 1 defenseman, which showed against Washington. However, Elliotte Friedman suggests a deal for Karlsson might be unlikely this offseason in his 31 Thoughts segment.
Friedman writes the main reason the original Karlsson trade collapsed was Ottawa’s insistence on Vegas including 2017 first-round pick Cody Glass, the team’s top prospect. The 19-year-old center, who was the sixth-overall pick in last year’s draft, potted 37 goals and 102 points for the Portland Winterhawks of the WHL. Vegas didn’t want to include him, despite the fact that 13th overall pick Nick Suzuki, also a center, tallied 42 goals and 100 points for the OHL’s Owen Sound Attack.
The team isn’t ready to deplete it’s prospect pool. They would rather move picks such as when they traded their 2018 first-rounder, a 2019 second rounder and a 2021 third-rounder to get a player like Tomas Tatar. They already know what they have in Glass and Suzuki even if it takes another year for them to step into their lineup. However, despite having six picks in the first three rounds last year (three first-rounders), the team is still building its prospect pool for the future and with just one pick in the first three rounds this year (not in the first round), the team isn’t going to build it up a whole lot this year.
Friedman suggests that a better move for the Golden Knights would be to steal away John Carlson from Washington (McPhee drafted him back in 2008). Considering the amount of cap space Vegas has, that would be the best way to bring in veteran talent.
While many people believe that bringing in Karlsson, who has been unhappy with Ottawa’s ownership, is the better course of action, trading one (or more) of their top prospects and likely taking on the bloated contract of winger Bobby Ryan for another four years at $7.25MM will quickly destroy both their cap flexibility and cut into their small, but solid prospect pool. Vegas will have at least $28MM in cap room, so why not just spend some of it on Carlson and keep their prospects?
Western Notes: Niederreiter, Dumba, Golden Knights, Gusev
The Minnesota Wild were expected to shake things up after another disappointing playoff run and made that clear when they replaced general manager Chuck Fletcher with Paul Fenton. One forgets that Fenton as the assistant to David Poile in Nashville for the past 20 years, has been involved in many blockbuster trades in that time. So, don’t be surprised to see the team make several big moves this offseason.
The Athletic’s Mike Russo (subscription required) delves into several potential trade candidates and what the chances are that Fenton might move them. At the top of the list is winger Nino Niederreiter, who might be the perfect trade candidate. After three 20-goal seasons, Niederreiter came up two goals short this year, but also missed 19 games this year with a high ankle sprain and a broken fibula. Unfortunately, Niederreiter also has struggled in the playoffs recently combining for just one assist in 10 playoff games over the past two seasons. However, the fact that he’s 25 years old and is locked in for another four years at $5.25MM AAV could make him the team’s biggest trade chip. Throw in the fact that Jason Zucker and Zach Parise are listed as the top two left wings on the team, he is expendable.
While he analyzes a number of trade candidates in the article, Russo suggests that despite going well out of their way to protect Mathew Dumba at the expansion draft last season (that cost them Erik Haula and Alex Tuch), Dumba rewarded the team with a career highs in goals and assists with 14 goals and 36 assists. Now a restricted free agent, the team must decide whether Dumba is worth a long-term deal and if not, the Wild might want to move him while his value is high.
- With the team’s success this year, Vegas Golden Knights general manager George McPhee refers to their 2017 first-round picks, Cody Glass, Nick Suzuki and Erik Brannstrom as “long shots” to making the team next season, according to SinBinVegas. If one of those picks were to make the Golden Knights roster out of training camp, they would have to be “really, really good.” McPhee also said he doesn’t believe teenagers belong in the NHL and the team must take more responsibility to develop their prospects properly. “Smartest thing we can do is take our time and develop them,” McPhee said.
- Sticking with the Vegas Golden Knights, David Schoen of the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports that McPhee said the team continues to pursue Russian winger Nikita Gusev, who the team acquired in an expansion-day deal with the Tampa Bay Lightning last year. The 25-year-old has scored 46 goals and tallied 133 points over the past two seasons in the KHL. He still has one more year remaining on a two-year deal he signed last summer, so the Golden Knights have to wait a while longer. “He’s got another year on his deal and then we’ll see what we can do. He’s a talented guy and we’ll do what we can to get him here. We’ve talked to him, and we’ll continue to talk to him,” McPhee said.
The Vegas Train Isn’t Slowing Down: 2018-19 & Beyond
They’re just off to a hot start. His shooting percentage is unsustainable. The schedule gets tougher in the second half. They’re not playoff-tested.
All of these things have been said about the Vegas Golden Knights, and all of them have been shot down as the team keeps rolling through the NHL like they were relegated from an even higher league. The team knocked out the San Jose Sharks yesterday on the back of another shutout by Marc-Andre Fleury, and will now sit and wait for the winner of Nashville-Winnipeg. Both the Predators and Jets are impressive hockey clubs, but if you think they’ll be big favorites over the Golden Knights, you haven’t been paying attention.
Vegas may well go all the way to the Stanley Cup in their first season. They could even take home the trophy, handing it to Fleury, James Neal, David Perron, and Deryk Engelland before handing it to some of the less experienced players. Eventually it would end up in the hands of 22-year old Shea Theodore, a defenseman who started the year in the AHL only to now log more than 22 and a half minutes a night in the playoffs. Or Alex Tuch, the 21-year old prospect the Golden Knights received from Minnesota who, while still unpolished, can look like an animal off his leash at times as he disrupts breakouts and crashes heavily on the forecheck.
It would be passed to Malcolm Subban, a forgotten first-round pick who showed that all he needed was a chance and some confidence. He’ll still be 24 when next season begins, and looking like the obvious successor to Fleury down the road.
It’s that “down the road” that is so interesting for the Golden Knights. That’s when everyone was expecting them to compete. Down the road. Maybe sometime in the future. When their draft picks develop.
Those draft picks are developing already.
Cody Glass, the first draft pick in Vegas franchise history, recorded 102 points in 64 games for the Portland Winterhawks this season. He only just turned 19, but on a weaker team would be pushing for a role in the NHL as soon as next season. Nick Suzuki, his CHL counterpart selected just a few picks later, recorded 100 points in 64 matches. 42 goals tied him for third in OHL scoring, and he won’t turn 19 until August. Only AHL eligibility rules will likely stop him from playing professional hockey next season, as he’s already too good for the junior ranks.
Erik Brannstrom, the forgotten first-round pick, logged a regular shift on defense against professionals in the SHL, recording 22 points in 44 games. Fellow drafted blueliner Nicolas Hague put up 35 goals and 78 points as a dominant presence in the OHL.
Some criticized the Golden Knights for giving up three draft picks for Tomas Tatar at the trade deadline, especially because of the limited impact he’s had for them. But Vegas still holds 11 combined picks in rounds 1-3 of the 2019 and 2020 drafts, and will continue to pump talent into their pipeline. They’re not going away.
This summer could see the departure of Neal and Perron, and the offense will suffer. There is a chance that Fleury takes a step backwards, and the top line doesn’t produce as much. But there is more talent coming, there are more players ready to take the next step. Even as the core changes in the next few years, Vegas is set up for long-term success. The train isn’t slowing down, it’s just going to change conductors.
Western Notes: Peters, MacLean, Duclair, Niku, Suzuki
While the rumor that former Carolina Hurricanes head coach Bill Peters is likely headed to Calgary, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that the Dallas Stars had requested permission from Carolina to speak to Peters and did, but has decided that he isn’t a good fit for their coaching vacancy and is the front-runner for the Flames head coaching job. Postmedia’s Wes Gilbertson adds that the Flames were concerned about a better offer from Dallas, but the scribe writes that it is more and more certain the team will hire Peters.
“I’d like to work, I’d like to coach. I hope something is in place soon,” Peters said via Gilbertson.
While Peters was considered to be one of the top coaching prospects when he was hired by Carolina four years ago, he was never able to get them to the playoffs. The hope is that with four years of experience, the coach can take that next step with Calgary, who has a lot of talent and could be ready to make an impact next year.
- LeBrun also said the Dallas Stars will be patient in their coaching search, but believes that the team will consider former Ottawa Senators head coach Paul MacLean as a candidate. The coach was 114-90-35 in three and a half seasons for Ottawa from 2011-2014. However, LeBrun admits there are many candidates on their coaching list.
- Corey Snzjdjer of The Athletic (subscription required) writes the Chicago Blackhawks might not be able to retain restricted free agent Anthony Duclair. The 22-year-old acquired in January has a ton of potential, but can’t seem to put up much, in terms of points. He had two goals and six assists in 23 games until he suffered a knee injury that knocked him out for the last 13 games of the year. The scribe writes that because Duclair is on a one-year bridge deal, Chicago would have to match his $1.2MM salary, which might be too high of a price with all the young talent who could be brought in at cheaper salaries, including Vinnie Hinostroza, Victor Ejdsell and Dylan Sikura.
- The Winnipeg Jets announced they have assigned defenseman Sami Niku to the AHL’s Manitoba Moose. Niku was recalled Thursday as the team was dealing with injuries to defenseman Tyler Myers and then losing defenseman Josh Morrissey to a one-game suspension. Niku, the AHL’s defenseman of the year, would have gone in had Myers been unable to go Friday. Instead, he returns to Manitoba as they begin their playoff series today against the Grand Rapids Griffins.
- The Vegas Golden Knights have promoted prospect Nick Suzuki from the OHL’s Owen Sound Attack to the Chicago Wolves of the AHL. The 18-year-old prospect was the 13th overall pick in the 2017 draft and put up a 100-point season this year in 64 games for the Attack. He will join another first-rounder in Cody Glass, who was promoted earlier this week and 2017 second-round pick Nicolas Hague, who has been with the team for a couple of weeks. The prospects are just another future line of depth that could conceivably join Vegas next year, assuming they can win spots on the team during training camp.
Cody Glass Assigned To Chicago Wolves
Just before the Chicago Wolves are about to start their AHL playoff series against the Rockford IceHogs, they’re getting a talented young forward added to their group. Cody Glass has been assigned to the AHL now that his WHL season is over. Glass’ Portland Winterhawks team was eliminated last Friday, meaning the top pick can get a taste of professional hockey down the stretch.
Glass, selected sixth overall last June by the Vegas Golden Knights, had another outstanding season in the WHL, recording 102 points in 64 regular season games before adding another 13 in 12 playoff contests. Despite that success, he was left off the Canadian World Junior team but now could get a chance to prove his worth at a higher level. It’s unclear if he’ll get into the lineup right away, but even just skating with the team will be worthwhile for his development.
The Golden Knights have obviously had a huge amount of success on the ice this season, but their draft last June looks like an impressive beginning to a prospect pipeline. Glass, along with fellow first-round picks Nick Suzuki and Erik Brannstrom all look like they will be impact NHL players in the next few years, while second-round defenseman Nicolas Hague scored 35 goals in the OHL and is already playing for the Wolves.
Vegas Likely To Stand Pat At Deadline
If there were any last thoughts that the Vegas Golden Knights – who are on pace to be the best expansion team in sports history – would be sellers at the NHL Trade Deadline, they went out the window with the team’s convincing 4-1 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning last night. Tampa, who sits atop the league standings with 65 points, is now just two points ahead of Vegas, with the Knights holding a game in hand. Not only is Vegas playoff-bound in their first season, but they have a legitimate chance at the President’s Trophy. Unbelievably, they have a chance at a Stanley Cup title in their inaugural season as well.
For that reason, the idea of the team selling off their impending unrestricted free agents like James Neal, David Perron, or Luca Sbisa has become unthinkable. Despite the long-term benefits that trading away those players for picks and prospects may have on the young franchise, GM George McPhee is surely unwilling at this point to take the wind out of his team’s sails when they truly feel they can win it all in 2018. There is some evidence already that this team is happy with it’s current roster and more interested in extensions than blockbusters. Deryk Engelland and Jonathon Merrill recently signed new deals and the team is reportedly focused on an extension for Neal. The current Golden Knights roster is unlikely to change this season.
That just may include additions as well. For the same reason some are holding out that the Knights will be sellers is the same reason they are extremely unlikely to be buyers too. In just their first year existence, Vegas is in no position to be dealing away picks and prospects. While most teams are already stocked with prospects, Vegas has just their 2017 selections and a few free agent signings to build off. Cody Glass, Nick Suzuki, Jake Leschyshyn, Erik Brannstrom, and Nicolas Hague are nothing to laugh at, but the team needs to focus on quantity just as much as quality among their junior-level prospects. Their AHL affiliate, the Chicago Wolves, has been a middling team this season (currently 18th in the league), and that’s with a veteran free agent signing leading the team in scoring in Brandon Pirri and another team’s goalie as their starter in Kasimir Kaskisuo. Tomas Hyka may be the only prospect on the Chicago roster to ever make a noticeable difference in Vegas. The Stanley Cup is the toughest championship in sports to win and even a number one seed only gives the Knights the same shot that 15 other teams get, not a guaranteed trip to the final. In short, Vegas cannot afford to give up talented top prospects, nor can they give up the draft picks needed to keep filling out the system, for a greater chance at a a difficult title to claim.
The Vegas Golden Knights are rolling right now, playing far better in 2017-18 than anyone could have ever possibly imagined. There is no way they are sellers at the deadline but, due to the constraints of being an expansion franchise, they are unlikely to be sellers either. Like the old saying goes though, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Vegas is no less threatening this season or moving forward if they do indeed stand pat this season.
What Should Vegas Do With James Neal?
The Vegas Golden Knights had it all figured out. The plan from Day One was to build the team through the draft with a goal of reaching the playoffs in three years and winning a Stanley Cup in five. Evidently, the team did their math wrong. They won’t stop winning now in Year One.
However, despite the team’s success, they have done exactly as they’ve planned. The Golden Knights built their 2017 NHL draft based on multiple trades that came with the expansion draft as they picked up an extra two first-round picks in draft-day deals. They also added an extra second rounder as well as extra fifth and sixth round picks. That totaled 12 picks in that draft, or 13, if you add seventh-round pick Dylan Ferguson, who the team picked up in a trade after the draft.
The draft pick collecting didn’t stop just with the 2017 draft, however. They picked up quite a few for the 2019 NHL draft as well as they have seven picks in the first three rounds in that draft and 12 picks total. Even in 2020, the Golden Knights have four picks in the first two rounds. However, the one draft that Vegas hasn’t targeted is this upcoming draft, the 2018 NHL Draft. It’s obvious, the team’s plan was to accumulate picks at the trade deadline this year. The team has several top players in the last year of their deals that could be sold off for assets, players like James Neal, David Perron, Luca Sbisa and possibly even Jon Marchessault. That has always been the plan, until now.
The team had been winning quite a bit early on, but the team’s recent 8-0-1 run may have changed the outlook of many. Now at the holiday break, Vegas finds itself with a 23-9-2 record, good enough for a three-way tie for first place in the Western Conference. This team is for real, having pulled off victories in just the last week over the Pittsburgh Penguins, Tampa Bay Lightning and the Washington Capitals. Just a few days ago, NHL.com’s Gary Lawless said that he doesn’t expect Vegas to break up their team at the deadline.
But what do you do with Neal? While Marc-Andre Fleury has been the face of the franchise, it’s Neal that has endeared himself to Vegas fans. The winger has 17 goals, which leads the team and fans would love to have him stay with the franchise. However, he will be 31 years old at the start of the season next year. This will be Neal’s last opportunity to cash in on a big contract, which he truly deserves. However, do you give a 31-year-old player a long-term contract? An six-year deal? Eight years? At what cost? Or do they just let him walk away next season and start all over again.
Perron and Sbisa are probably easy enough to let walk away at the end of the season. While they both have played extremely well this year, the team could probably find replacements at their positions quickly enough. Don’t forget they have two young first-round picks who are dominating their junior league in Cody Glass and Nick Suzuki and another first-rounder in Erik Brannstrom in Sweden waiting to come over. Even Marchessault’s situation is easier to predict as he’ll just be 27 next year. A long-term deal might not look too bad at his age. No matter how many years they sign him for, after two years he’d be 33 years old in a league that caters to young players and have started separating themselves from older ones. Is that what you want on a young expansion team? So, what should Vegas do with Neal?
Team Canada’s First Cuts Include Cody Glass
TSN’s Bob McKenzie tweets that Vegas Golden Knights center Cody Glass has been cut from Canada’s World Junior team, along with Detroit Red Wings prospect Dennis Cholowski and Vancouver’s Kole Lind. Glass’ departure is somewhat of a surprise, if social media reactions are any indication. While they weren’t the only cuts today, they were two that certainly caught a lot of analysts off guard.
TSN projected Glass to be on the final roster back in August so the move is worthy of a double take. The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler tweets that Glass and Lind are second and third respectively in scoring for the WHL. Though the talent is hardly lacking for Canada, cutting two prominent scorers will get some attention. In addition to the aforementioned players, forward Jonathan Ang, and defenseman Logan Stanley were both cut loose.
To recap:
Canada Cuts:
F Cody Glass (Vegas Golden Knights)
F Kole Lind (Vancouver Canucks)
F Jonathan Ang (Florida Panthers)
D Dennis Cholowski (Detroit Red Wings)
D Logan Stanley (Winnipeg Jets)
G Samuel Harvey (2018 Draft Eligible)
Hockey Canada Announces Preliminary World Junior Roster
Like USA Hockey did yesterday, Hockey Canada has announced their preliminary World Junior Championship roster for the upcoming tournament in Buffalo, NY. The Canadian selection camp will have 32 players in it, but will have to whittle it down before the tournament begins. That group could potentially get a bonus should someone like Nolan Patrick or Victor Mete be sent back from their NHL squads in the next few weeks. The tournament officially begins on December 26th.
The roster is as follows:
G Carter Hart (PHI)
G Michael DiPietro (VAN)
G Colton Point (DAL)
G Samuel Harvey (2018 draft eligible)
D Kale Clague (LAK)
D Cale Makar (COL)
D Dante Fabbro (NSH)
D Jake Bean (CAR)
D Connor Timmins (COL)
D Logan Stanley (WPG)
D Cal Foote (TBL)
D Josh Mahura (ANA)
D Dennis Cholowski (DET)
D Mario Ferraro (SJS)
F Sam Steel (ANA)
F Michael McLeod (NJD)
F Jordan Kyrou (STL)
F Robert Thomas (STL)
F Dillon Dube (CGY)
F Brett Howden (TBL)
F Boris Katchouk (TBL)
F Nick Suzuki (VGK)
F Max Comtois (ANA)
F Alex Formenton (OTT)
F Jonathan Ang (FLA)
F Drake Batherson (OTT)
F Jonah Gadjovich (VAN)
F Cody Glass (VGK)
F Tanner Kaspick (STL)
F Kole Lind (VAN)
F Taylor Raddysh (TBL)
F Tyler Steenbergen (ARI)
The biggest surprises for Team Canada may be in the exclusions. Owen Tippett (FLA), Cliff Pu (BUF), Michael Rasmussen (DET), Adam Mascherin (FLA) and others were all expected to at least receive an invitation to the selection camp, but they will have to watch as their countrymen battle it out for the final spots.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vegas Golden Knights
Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Vegas Golden Knights
Current Cap Hit: $69,375,832 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Alex Tuch (Two years remaining, $925K)
D Shea Theodore (One year remaining, $863K)
Potential Bonuses
Tuch: $425K
While the brand-new franchise is focused on building up a powerhouse team over the next five years, which means draft picks and more draft picks, which will create a revolving door at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, there should be at least one constant who is already locked in for the future in Theodore. The just-turned 22-year-old is considered to be a long-term piece and despite the team’s overwhelming defensive logjam, the hope is Theodore is on the team’s opening day roster. Theodore shined last year during Anaheim’s playoff run when he along with several other defenseman had to step in for injured players and fared well. Theodore, a offensive defenseman, was a first-round pick of the Ducks in 2013 and despite having just nine points in 39 regular season games last year, he put up eight goals in 14 playoff games.
Tuch, a talented forward acquired near the expansion draft in a side deal with the Minnesota Wild, has a chance to immediately make the team out of training camp. The 21-year-old wing was a first-round pick in 2014 and scored 18 goals for the AHL’s Iowa Wild last year.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
F James Neal ($5MM, UFA)
F Mikhail Grabovski ($5MM, UFA)
D Jason Garrison ($4.6MM, UFA)
F David Perron ($3.75MM, UFA)
D Luca Sbisa ($3.6MM, UFA)
D Clayton Stoner ($3.25MM, UFA)
D Brayden McNabb ($1.7MM, UFA)
D Jonathon Merrill ($1.14MM, RFA)
F William Karlsson ($1MM, RFA)
D Colin Miller ($1MM, RFA)
D Deryk Engelland ($1MM, UFA)
G Calvin Pickard ($1MM, RFA)
F Jon Marchessault ($750K, UFA)
F Teemu Pulkkinen ($700K, RFA)
The Golden Knights will be looking to move as many of their players at the trade deadline as they can. Neal should be their biggest trade bait as many teams wouldn’t mind adding a goal-scorer right in time for the playoffs. The 30-year-old wing is coming off a 23-goal season in Nashville and has scored 165 goals in the last six seasons combined. The team hopes that playing on a top line should keep his scoring numbers up high so that his price increases at the perfect time, but a recent report that a wrist injury suffered during the playoffs last year is still affecting Neal and he will miss two to four weeks is concerning. The team also has high hopes it can move Perron. After putting up a career-high 28 goals in 2013-14, he has struggled with injuries but rebounded last year with an 18 goal season. If he can stay healthy and produce similar numbers, he might be worth a mid to late pick.
One key decision the team will have to make is what to do with Marchessault, who is coming off a 30-goal season a year ago in Florida. At $750K, he is a bargain for the next year, but if he can duplicate his numbers from last year, he would be in line for a big payday. Complicating the situation is that Vegas head coach Gerard Gallant is a big fan of the 26-year-old and was the head coach in Florida wlast year when Marchessault started his breakout season.
The team also has a number of restricted free agents who they will likely hold onto. While Pickard’s name is rarely mentioned in Vegas as he is the current backup, don’t be surprised if Pickard is penciled in as the goaltender of the future. The 25-year-old struggled with Colorado last year (although he did have one of the worst teams around him), but was a promising prospect before that. Miller is another who should be retained. The 24-year-old was a promising defender in Boston who was just beginning to get full-time work. He got into 61 games last year and showed quite a bit of promise. Karlsson should get a bottom line spot in the lineup. The 24-year-old is coming off a 25-point season and the team hopes he takes his game up a notch.
While Grabovski likely won’t see the ice ever in Las Vegas (freeing the team of his $5MM cap hit), Garrison is a defender who may prove to have some value if he can produce on one of the team’s top defensive lines. The 32-year-old struggled at times in Tampa Bay and his offensive numbers have declined in the past couple of years. McNabb is considered to be an excellent defender and should provide solid defense for Vegas. He missed a lot of time due to a broken collarbone injury he suffered last October, forcing the 26-year-old in and out of the lineup all season and he eventually lost his starting job at the end of the year, but should get regular minutes with the Golden Knights. Sbisa is another player who should get playing time in hopes the team can move him later this year. The 27-year-old blueliner was a solid defenseman, but few teams were interested in his $3.6MM pricetag.