What Your Team Is Thankful For: Colorado Avalanche
As the holiday season approaches, PHR will look at what teams are thankful for as the season nears the quarter point of completion. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We take a look at what’s gone well in the first month and what could improve as the season rolls on. Yesterday we examined at the Washington Capitals.
What are the Colorado Avalanche most thankful for?
A conclusion to the Matt Duchene saga.
The hockey world has been all over the Avalanche and GM Joe Sakic for how they handled a trade request from one of their star players. Duchene wanted to get out of Colorado during a brutal 2016-17 season, but Sakic wasn’t willing to make a move until his high price was met. Earlier this month the bill was paid by the Ottawa Senators and Nashville Predators, and the unhappy Duchene can finally move on.
Sakic needed to include a third team in the deal but eventually did get his reported ask of a young mobile defenseman, first-round pick and top prospect. In fact, he even added another prospect and two other draft picks to that total, coming away with quite the haul for a single player. Samuel Girard (the young defenseman) has flashed his top-pairing potential early, while Duchene has struggled to get on the scoresheet in Ottawa. Though it is far from decided, Sakic came out of a hard situation quite well after months of harsh criticism.
Who are the Avalanche most thankful for?
Overshadowed by the terrible record of the team, MacKinnon once again had a solid season for the Avalanche a year ago. With 53 points he easily led the team, and set career highs in shots and faceoff percentage. While nothing from last year’s Avalanche can be considered a positive, he at least wasn’t the anchor pulling the team down.
This year is another story. MacKinnon, surrounded by a young more dangerous offensive squad is off to a tremendous start with 25 points in 20 games. That number puts him among the leaders in the league, and at the ripe old age of 22 there is still a legitimate chance his game could get even better over the next few years. Locked in at just $6.3MM per season through 2022-23, the Avalanche are in a prime position to build around their underpaid superstar with the next wave of talent.
What would the Avalanche be even more thankful for?
A return to form for Semyon Varlamov.
In 2013-14 a 25-year old Varlamov played in 63 games for the Avalanche, recording a league-leading 41 wins and posting a .927 save percentage. That was good enough to earn him a fourth-place finish in Hart Trophy voting, while coming in just behind Tuukka Rask for the Vezina. Varlamov was an elite goaltender in the league and was rewarded with a five-year extension mid-season.
Since then, his save percentage has dropped to an average .913 and sits at just .903 this season. While last year’s struggles can be explained away at least somewhat by injury, this year has shown him to be an average-at-best netminder in the league. A bounce-back to his previous highs would make the Avalanche an legitimate bubble candidate for the playoffs, if they aren’t already.
Varlamov has another year left on that extension after this season at $5.9MM, and will have to prove he can still be a starting goaltender in this league if he wants another contract with the Avalanche.
What should be on the Avalanche Holiday Wish List?
More young defensemen.
Even though the team has added Girard, brought over Andrei Mironov and drafted Cale Makar, there is still a shortage of NHL-caliber defenders in their system. Nikita Zadorov fulfilling some of his potential would help, but the team will likely still be after other intriguing young defensemen on the trade market.
With some interesting trade chips to use this season—there is no telling whether Gabriel Landeskog and Tyson Barrie are still on the market, but they weren’t part of Sakic’s “untouchable” group last year—the Avalanche could once again infuse some immediate talent into the back end.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
The Post-Duchene Era: Colorado’s New Path To Success
The Colorado Avalanche aren’t ready to compete for the Stanley Cup. No one is saying they will. Even if their current players are hoping to squeeze their way into the playoffs, they’re still more likely to finish somewhere in the bottom half (or even third) of the league. But there is still that hope.
In August, PHR ran an article entitled Colorado’s Tumultuous Twelve Months which chronicled the fall of the Avalanche after Patrick Roy left the team on the precipice of the season, and all the heartbreak that followed. The 2016-17 version of the Avalanche was one of the worst teams in NHL history, and their reward—dropping to fourth overall in the entry draft—was the final blow. But, as we wrote then, there was reason for (say it with me) hope.
Add in that Matt Duchene is still likely to bring a big return at some point, Jonathan Bernier could be a trade-deadline asset, and the team could be surprisingly successful in short order. While a playoff spot still seems like a distant goal, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. The defense still needs work—the team doesn’t even have Nikita Zadorov under contract yet—but with another lottery chance in what’s shaping up to be an incredibly deep draft in 2018, the Avalanche could have a quicker turnaround than many expect.
The Avalanche did cash in their Duchene-shaped poker chip, using him as a catalyst for the massive three-team trade this past weekend. In return, not only did they set themselves up well for the 2018 draft—the same one that is still looking incredibly deep—but did a lot of the heavy lifting on the defense rebuild. Samuel Girard, the centerpiece of the Duchene deal, is a blue-chip prospect that is perfectly built for the new NHL. When you describe his best qualities, Avalanche fans may think you’re talking about someone else.
Excellent mobility. Quick decision making. Superb puck skills. Are we talking about Girard or Cale Makar, the other top defensive prospect obtained in the last few months?
Makar is spending the year at UMass-Amherst, where he recently scored his first collegiate goal and seems to take on more minutes and more responsibility on a nightly basis. Head coach Greg Carval recently called him “remarkable” and spoke about all the intangibles Makar brings to the team, even as a freshman. When he’s ready to turn pro, there is no doubt he’ll be a difference-maker in the NHL.
That August article also mentioned two other names, Nikita Zadorov and Jonathan Bernier. The former did eventually sign, inking a two-year deal with the team that told him “prove it.” It’s not gone swimmingly early on, as Zadorov has been a healthy scratch and generally ineffective in his role. By no means does he look out of place in the NHL, but hasn’t shown that shutdown ability both Buffalo (who drafted him 16th-overall in 2013) and Colorado (who included him as the centerpiece of the Ryan O’Reilly deal) believed he could.
In Bernier’s case, his season has gone much the way his career has. At times he looks outstanding, able to shoulder the load as a starter in the NHL. But then there is the other Bernier, who can allow six goals on 28 shots and look small and defeated in the net. It’s just five games for him this season as the backup to Semyon Varlamov, but even if he has his occasional stinker he’ll still be worth something at the deadline as an expiring, relatively inexpensive contract.
Which brings us to the final (and perhaps most important) piece of good news for the Avalanche. In Elliotte Friedman’s latest 31 Thoughts column for Sportsnet, one of the smaller notes was about Colorado’s salary structure going forward. With the departing of Duchene and his $6MM hit, the team now has approximately $26MM in cap space (via CapFriendly) for next season with 17 players already under contract. In a league that cap space is king, that is a perfect situation for a rebuilding club. Colorado will be able to pick and choose the contracts they want to sign over the next few years with only Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Erik Johnson locked in past the 2019-20 season.
So what does this all mean? Are the Avalanche the new model for a rebuilding club? No. Not everything has been perfect, not by any means. But for all the horror that was last season, when the team was continually going on losing streaks of four, five or even nine games, there is—to borrow from that August article—a light at the end of the tunnel. Suddenly, a defensive prospect system that was completely bare is stocked with two legitimate top names. A forward group that was dominated by disappointment and trade talk has now catapulted the team to the top half of the league in scoring and features several budding stars.
Add in the fact that they’ll likely pick four times (at least) in the first 60 selections come June, and there’s one thing on the minds of Colorado Avalanche fans.
Hope.
Matt Duchene Traded To Ottawa, Turris to Nashville
The long-awaited trade, and I mean long-awaited, has finally happened as the Colorado Avalanche have traded their 26-year-old franchise center Matt Duchene to the Ottawa Senators in a three-team trade with the Nashville Predators, according to Elliotte Friedman. Ottawa will send veteran center Kyle Turris to Nashville, while Colorado receives a package of players and picks.
According to Friedman, the Avalanche will receive defenseman Samuel Girard and winger Vladislav Kamenev from Nashville and center Shane Bowers and goaltender Andrew Hammond from Ottawa. The Avs will also receive Ottawa’s 2018 first-round pick (top-10 protected), Nashville’s 2018 second-round pick and Ottawa’s 2019 third-round pick in the deal. Friedman adds that if the Senators 2018 first-round pick falls in the top 10, then it rotates to a 2019 first-rounder instead.
As part of the deal, the Predators have extended Turris with a six-year, $36MM extension that ensures him a long-term place as the team’s second-line center.
Those three teams attempted to complete a similar deal yesterday, but the deal fell through and after it was leaked to the press, many thought the trade could not be revisited. However, with two disgruntled players in Duchene and Turris, the three teams were able to get the deal done. In fact, the team made the trade in the middle of their game with the New York Islanders as Duchene was informed and removed from the game during the first period of action. Ironically, he will join his new teammates in Sweden when they face off against the Avalanche for two games on Nov. 10 and 11.
Duchene, the team’s face of their franchise for the last several years, was the third overall pick in 2009 and has been a key scorer for the team over the past nine seasons. The 26-year-old center has scored 178 goals and 250 assists in 585 games for Colorado. However, as the team has struggled especially over the past three years, combining for 100-126-20 record, the disgruntled center had hoped to be traded, but the high demands of general manager Joe Sakic made it difficult for teams to acquire Duchene. Instead, an entire offseason of speculation only created more drama and when training camp opened and Duchene was still in Colorado, he demanded a trade. Part of the problem was Duchene’s poor performance last year when the team had 56 losses and the center’s numbers were down. He tallied just 18 goals and 41 points last year. Duchene rebounded slightly this year, having put up four goals and six assists in 12 games.
In Ottawa, Duchene replaces Turris, a long-time member of the franchise who has scored 117 goals for the Senators in seven season. Turris, who would have been a free agent next year, wanted a seven-year deal with the franchise and at age 28, the team was hesitant to give him that type of long-term deal, especially when they have already committed a lot of money to aging players such as Dion Phaneuf and Bobby Ryan. Duchene gives the franchise more time as he is locked into his five-year, 30MM deal until after the 2018-19 season. And, at age 26, is a little younger than Turris.
Turris gives the Predators the second-string center they needed. This allows free agent acquisition Nick Bonino to center the team’s third line and Colton Sissons and Calle Jarnkrok to battle it out on that final line. Now locked up for the next six years after this one, Turris should provide stability for the franchise up the middle. He had an impressive year last year, putting up 27 goals and 28 assists for 55 points. So far in 11 games this year, Turris has three goals and nine points.
As for the Avalanche, it looks as if Sakic got exactly what he was hoping for as the team got a large haul for Duchene. The key to the trade was Girard, an offensively-gifted defenseman, who still needs to work on his defense. Sometimes compared to Will Butcher, who the team lost to New Jersey this offseason, he should help stabilize their defense. The 19-year-old blueliner made the Nashville team out of training camp, but has still only played five games with Nashville, which will force Colorado to decide whether to keep him with their team and burn his first year of his entry-level deal or send him back to his junior team and not get him back until his season is over. The Predators second-round pick in 2016 has been impressive on a team loaded with quality defenseman, but has found himself watching games from the press box lately. An elite skater with excellent passing skills, Girard should be a key member of the team’s defense along with 2017 first-rounder Cale Makar.
Kamenev, the Predators’ 2014 second-round pick, has been playing with the Milwaukee Admirals this year and has put up solid numbers with three goals and five assists in nine games so far. Last year, the 21-year-old prospect put up 21 goals and 30 assists for Milwaukee. A solid skater with excellent hands and size (6-foot-2), he could easily fit on one of the team’s lower lines to start off.
Ottawa also moved one of their top prospects. Already loaded with Colin White, Logan Brown and Filip Chlapik, the team felt comfortable trading Bowers, their 2017 first-rounder. Picked 28th overall, the 18-year-old center is currently playing for Boston University and has four goals and two assists in 10 games for the Hockey East team. Ottawa also got a break in sending Hammond to Colorado. The 29-year-old former backup goaltender lost his job to Mike Condon last season and was eventually put on waivers and sent to Belleville. Not long after, Hammond suffered a hip injury that required surgery. He will likely be sent to San Antonio, providing goaltending insurance for the Avalanche. It frees up logjam of goalies the team has in Belleville as the team already has 31-year-old Daniel Taylor as the two veterans are holding up the team’s young goalies.
Colorado also will get two extra picks in a strong 2018 draft and now will have two first-round picks, two second-round picks and a third-round pick. The extra third-rounder will have to wait until 2019.
Snapshots: Nyquist, Makar, Price
The Detroit Red Wings have dropped below .500 again with their loss last night to the Ottawa Senators, and the groans from hockey fans in Michigan are beginning again. Yesterday, our Nate Brown took a look at the coaching staff’s part in the sluggish start, and today Craig Custance of The Athletic went in depth on the trade value of a certain first-line asset.
Gustav Nyquist is an interesting piece for the Red Wings, under contract through the end of next season. The 28-year old forward was once one of the hottest scoring threats in the league, registering 48 points in 57 games in the 2013-14 season. That garnered him some Hart Trophy votes and a place on the Swedish Olympic team, but he hasn’t had quite the same impact since. Custance has some great quotes from scouts and front office types around the league on his perceived value, which isn’t as high as it could be if he can find some kind of consistency over the next few months.
- Cale Makar is off to quite a start at UMass reports Craig Button of TSN. The fourth-overall pick of 2017 is a shining light for the Colorado Avalanche in their continued defensive struggles. Makar is the kind of defenseman who can bring you to your feet at any moment, and is starting to adapt to playing against higher competition. It will be interesting to see how long he stays in the college ranks, before being recruited to jump to the NHL with the Avalanche.
- Although it’s clearly not serious, Carey Price wasn’t present at Montreal Canadiens practice today as he nursed a lower-body injury. The team is expected to recall a goaltender and will have Al Montoya start on Saturday night against the Winnipeg Jets. It might be good for Price to get some time off, as he’s struggled mightily through the early part of the season. With an .877 save percentage through 11 games, he’s leading the league in goals allowed and losses. About to start an eight-year, $84MM contract extension next season, the Canadiens need Price to get back to his all-world ways as soon as possible.
2017-18 NCAA Players To Watch
Just like their professional and junior counterparts, the college hockey season is underway. With each passing year, the NCAA’s influence on the world of hockey grows, and in 2017-18 the college ranks contain an impressive amount of talent:
The Recent Draft Picks
D Cale Makar, UMass (COL) – The fourth overall pick this past June, Makar arguably has the highest upside of any player in his draft class. He’s even drawn comparisons to Erik Karlsson. He would be a big deal at any school, but for a Minutemen team that has struggled greatly in recent years, Makar stands to revolutionize coach Greg Carvel’s program. Fans in Amherst hope that Makar won’t be “one and done”, but the Colorado Avalanche need him just as much as UMass does. This exceptional skater could be an offensive force in the NHL sooner rather than later.
C Casey Mittelstadt, Minnesota (BUF) – Mittelstadt may have slipped in the 2017 draft, but the eighth overall pick is a dynamic offensive talent with speed and creativity. Perhaps more than anything, Mittelstadt thinks the game at an advanced level. The Gophers have a special talent on their hands and he could make waves in the NCAA this season. The only concern is whether the high school star yet has the physical tools to play at a high level.
C Ryan Poehling, St. Cloud State (MTL) – The college ranks have already seen a year’s worth of Poehling, but as the two-way threat enters his sophomore season, he’s primed to show more of his offensive ability. The 25th overall pick is as solid a center as can be found at his age and simply needs to bring the same knack for scoring as he brings to defense. He’s developing into the type of player that Canadiens head coach Claude Julien loves. If Montreal struggles to acclimate to their new coach’s defense-first system, Poehling could even be a late-season addition.
The Soon-To-Be Draft Picks
RW Brady Tkachuk, Boston University – The trend of NCAA freshman going early in the draft may reach a new high in 2017, with Tkachuk leading the charge. The son of Keith Tkachuk and brother of Matthew Tkachuk, Brady brings the same physicality and knack for scoring to his power forward role. Already 6’3”, 200-lbs. and still growing, Tkachuk will one day be a force in the NHL like his family members, but first he’s going give the college game a run for its money. Tkachuk will be fun to watch this season, especially for fans of teams looking like lottery candidates.
D Quinn Hughes, Michigan – Hughes will push Tkachuk to be the first college player selected next June, but in reality both players could easily be top ten, even top five picks. An undersized, but unbelievably skilled blue liner, Hughes could be one of the top scoring defenseman in the NCAA. The Wolverines have become the recruiting capital for top American defenseman and Hughes is their poster boy. Expect a big season from the 17-year-old.
LW Michael Pastujov, Michigan – Joining Hughes in Ann Arbor is the Florida-native Pastujov, a raw, but high-ceiling forward. An underrated member of last year’s U.S. National Development team behind the likes of Tkachuk and recent draft picks/current college players Josh Norris, Grant Mismash, and Evan Barratt in the forward corps, Pastujov’s successes were often lost in the mix. However, Michigan may be strong on defense, but ranked only 42nd in scoring last year. Alongside Norris, the San Jose Sharks’ first-round pick whom he should have some leftover chemistry with, Pastujov could be one of the top offensive threats for the Wolverines. He’s primed for a breakout campaign that could vault him into first-round consideration.
The Best Fits For Matt Duchene
Despite the tumultuous off-season for Matt Duchene and the Colorado Avalanche, GM Joe Sakic fully expects him to show up to training camp. At least, that’s what he told BSN Denver’s Adrian Dater. “He’s under contract and I expect him to be here” Sakic said, “Not everybody always comes to camp early. It’s not for me to (say), but I assume on the 14th, he’ll be here.” Sakic is referring to Duchene being one of only two Avs players under contract not to participate in captain’s practice last week. Holdouts may be rare in the NHL, but Duchene’s words and actions this summer have painted a pretty clear picture of a player who would like to leave Colorado.
If Duchene has reached his wit’s end with the trade rumors that have persisted since late 2016 and truly has no intention of suiting up for the Avalanche again, Sakic has just a few days left to trade him before this begins to enter holdout territory. The perceived problem all along is that Sakic has not dropped the asking price that has long been considered a young top-four defenseman, a first round pick, and one or two more young roster players or prospects. Not only do few (read: any) NHL teams have a young top-four blue liner to spare, but it’s hard to imagine anyone giving up such a package for Duchene, who has just two seasons remaining on his contract and is coming off a down 2016-17 season. Duchene had scored 55 or more points in five of his seven NHL seasons entering last year – and easily would have made it six had the the 2012-13 lockout-shorten seasoned been extended – yet, he ended up with only 41 points and an egregious -34 rating last season; a low point for both he and the Avalanche franchise.
Logic would seem to indicate that, holdout or not, Sakic has to continue listening to offers for Duchene and needs to lower an unreasonable asking price. TSN recently released their list of the top nine NHL trade candidates this season, with Duchene obviously at the top. They list the Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Islanders, Montreal Canadiens, Boston Bruins, Nashville Predators, and Pittsburgh Penguins as the mostly likely destinations for Duchene. The Carolina Hurricanes and San Jose Sharks have also been in the rumor mix this summer.
Right away, a few of those options can have their odds discounted. Having just traded away Travis Hamonic and traded for Jordan Eberle, the New York Islanders and their estimated $3MM in cap space likely lack the capacity and the desire to pony up for Duchene at this point. The Isles are still deep on defense, but with Thomas Hickey and Dennis Seidenberg approaching free agency next year, trading yet another young defenseman like Calvin de Haan, Adam Pelech or Ryan Pulock could put the team in hole. Without one of those three, it is hard to see New York making a suitable offer. The defending two-time Cup champs are in a similar situation. While many Pens fans would love to see the embarrassment of riches of Duchene as the third line center behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh too lacks the cap space, currently about $3.25MM, and the pieces to get the job done. That is, unless Sakic is keen on Olli Maatta or the Penguins offer up Brian Dumoulin, Justin Schultz, or an overwhelming offer of picks and prospects including Derrick Pouliot and enough salary to offset Duchene. It’s a series of unlikely scenarios. Additionally, the Montreal Canadiens lack anything remotely close to a young top four defenseman. Duchene would be a great fit for the Habs, but they simply don’t have the pieces.
The Hurricanes and Bruins certainly have the pieces to acquire Duchene, but it seems unlikely that either will be the team to finally do it. Boston was in talks with Colorado last year, but balked at the ask of a package including Charlie McAvoy or Brandon Carlo and wouldn’t be willing to move Torey Krug either. If the price drops, the B’s have talented young defenders like Jakob Zboril, Jeremy Lauzon, Ryan Lindgren, and 2017 first rounder Uhro Vaakanainen waiting in the wings, but even if that was enough, the Bruins’ quiet off-season has indicated that they would like to move forward with their own young players this season. Carolina, on the other hand, is a Duchene-caliber player away from being a true contender and would love to add someone with his ability. However, GM Ron Francis has made it clear that he does not want to trade any of his defensemen. That hasn’t stopped TSN for listing “a Carolina defenseman” as one of their top trade candidates, but as of now there is no reason to think any of Justin Faulk, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, or Noah Hanifin are going anywhere. Like Boston, Carolina still has solid pieces if the price drops, such as Haydn Fleury and Jake Bean, but another thought has been whispered this summer that may take Carolina out of the Duchene race altogether. Since acquiring Trevor van Riemsdyk from the Vegas Golden Knights back in June, a player who by all accounts they didn’t really need, many have speculated that Carolina is looking to make a run at 2018 premiere free agent James van Riemsdyk, to bring in the scoring power forward that they desperately desire.
The Blue Jackets and Sharks would be ideal landing spots for Duchene, but both teams would need to get creative with their offers. Both squads have a need for a scoring forward, the cap space to take him on and plenty of talented defensemen, but what they would be willing up on the blue line is not exactly what Colorado desires. There is no way that Columbus includes Zach Werenski or Seth Jones in a deal, but could be open to trading David Savard or Ryan Murray. However, each have a caveat. Savard, while a solid top-four talent, has had durability issues and difficulty with consistent production over the past couple of years. While he would be a great addition to any defense, that may not be what Sakic is looking to get back. Murray, while injury prone, is a highly-skilled young rearguard, but, amazingly, the 24-year-old will be an unrestricted free agent next summer. Any deal involving Murray would first have to include a long-term extension with the league’s worst team. Columbus’ best chance of getting Duchene likely involves a package with top defensive prospect Gabriel Carlsson and a young roster player like Josh Anderson or Oliver Bjorkstrand. San Jose also has a few untouchables on defense, namely superstars Brent Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Colorado also wouldn’t be interested in veterans Paul Martin and Justin Braun. That leaves Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo as the top options. While both have shown top-four potential, they have largely played shutdown roles in their young careers and bring little offensive upside. Like Savard, one would think that Sakic has a little more in mind for the Duchene return than stay-at-home defenders like Dillon and DeMelo. If the Sharks package versatile puck-moving D-prospect Jeremy Roy with either though, then talks could really get started. A package that starts like that and ends with a first-round pick and one of San Jose’s many young forwards could be enough to seal the deal.
Yet, the top candidate to bring in Duchene is likely the reigning Western Conference champs. No, the Predators are not moving any of Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, or Mattias Ekholm, but the trick up their sleeve is top prospect Dante Fabbro. A junior teammate of Colorado top prospect Tyson Jost, Fabbro is considered one of the best prospects in hockey and should step into a top four role immediately when he leaves Boston University, much like Charlie McAvoy, who Sakic already targeted in Boston. Fabbro is not just a top-four defenseman, but a potential future #1 or at least a great option to pair with Cale Makar down the road. Sakic would be hard-pressed to find more upside up for grabs than Fabbro, but the Predators are set long-term on the blue line and desperately need to recoup the scoring lost in the Expansion Draft with the selection of James Neal. Fabbro, plus a young forward like Colton Sissons, Frederick Gaudreau, or Pontus Aberg, plus a first rounder and another pick or prospect, and Duchene could surely be on his way to Nashville.
Only time will tell where Duchene ends up, but the best case scenario for all parties is for that destination to not be Denver, Colorado for much longer. Sakic must and will eventually lower his asking price and someone will meet those demands. Could it be Nashville, Columbus, or San Jose? Definitely. Could it be Boston or Carolina? The Islanders or the Penguins? Possibly. Someone totally off the board? Of course. For such a talked-about topic, there is still so much uncertainty surrounding the situation. The next step will be to see if Duchene shows up to camp on Thursday. That decision could have a resounding effect on the trade process.
Colorado’s Tumultuous Twelve Months
The Colorado Avalanche have had a tough 12 months. On August 11th, 2016 legendary goaltender and then head coach Patrick Roy left the organization in a public resignation less than a month before training camp was due to start. His departure was reported to have stemmed at least partially from Tyson Barrie‘s new four-year contract, signed less than two weeks prior. Roy left the Avalanche scrambling for a new coach, and though Jared Bednar would eventually brought in things were never stable.
The season started remarkably well with three wins in the first four games, but it wouldn’t take long for the Avalanche to drop to the bottom of the standings. By Christmas, they were 12-20-1 and they would win just ten more games the rest of the way. At the trade deadline, other teams were circling like vultures trying to pry Gabriel Landeskog and Matt Duchene away from GM Joe Sakic, but the Avalanche GM wouldn’t budge. His high asking priced held firm, and instead of selling off top assets he sat relatively silent (apologies to Jarome Iginla and Andreas Martinsen).
Though the speculation on Landeskog died down, Duchene was another story. Rumors would follow him through the end of the season and to the entry draft, where Colorado fell out of the top three picks despite a historically bad finish. The draft lottery is a cruel mistress, and Sakic saw New Jersey, Philadelphia and Dallas stride to the podium before him.
But that’s where things have started to change. Rumored to be a possibility for the top-two picks as close as the morning of the draft, Cale Makar made it to the fourth pick where Sakic immediately snapped him up. The dynamic puck-rushing defender has as much risk as anyone taken in the top five, but could also become one of the premiere offensive defensemen in the new NHL. He’s heading to UMass in the fall, but has already said he doesn’t expect to spend all four years there.
While the Duchene shadow still looms over the Avalanche, they’ve done well lately to add young players with little to no risk. Dominic Toninato and Alex Kerfoot were among the best available NCAA free agents, and though Colorado lost Will Butcher, the pair of forwards more than make up for it. They’ll join an impressive young group forming for the Avalanche.
Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Tyson Jost, J.T. Compher, A.J. Greer and the two free agents represent a 23-and-under group that could be quite formidable if given the chance, and the wildcard of Nail Yakupov also exists. If the former first-overall pick could ever live up to his immense goal scoring potential, Colorado could be hard to contain.
Add in that Duchene is still likely to bring a big return at some point, and Jonathan Bernier could be a trade-deadline asset, and the team could be surprisingly successful in short order. While a playoff spot still seems like a distant goal, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. The defense still needs work—the team doesn’t even have Nikita Zadorov under contract yet—but with another lottery chance in what’s shaping up to be an incredibly deep draft in 2018, the Avalanche could have a quicker turnaround than many expect.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Cale Makar Expects To Play Just One Or Two Years At UMass
Over the last few weeks, teams around the league have been experiencing what it’s like to lose a draft pick to free agency after he completes college. After watching him develop into an exciting prospect, they’re unable to sign him and end up having to watch other teams pursue him on the open market. As one reader asked in our live chat last week, there could be some hesitation for teams picking players that are headed into the college ranks with the fear that they could lose them down the road.
It doesn’t sound like the Colorado Avalanche—one of the teams burned recently by Will Butcher‘s free agency—will have to worry about that with the fourth-overall pick from this summer. Cale Makar, the dynamic defenseman from the Alberta Junior Hockey League is set to attend UMass-Amherst this season but spoke to the NHL Network yesterday about his future.
I think in my mind it’s a process and I think in terms of my development it’s going to be very beneficial for me to go to college for one or two years, or however long it’s going to take for me to be ready to make the jump to the NHL.
There’s no doubt that Makar does need some seasoning against top players, as the AJHL isn’t quite on the level many other prospects played at. That said, Makar has shown well on the international stage at the recent World Junior Summer Showcase and possesses remarkable talent. There should be little worry that it will take him more than a year or two to adapt to the higher level and be ready to make the jump.
There is some level of protection against a player drafted as high as Makar waiting for free agency, but it’s not exactly worth the fourth-overall pick. The Avalanche would be given a compensatory pick in the second round, similar to the situation Arizona faced when they did not sign Conner Bleackley—who was originally a Colorado draft pick as well—in 2016. Colorado should also be familiar with the risk and reward of choosing a college-bound player; last year saw Tyson Jost refine his game for the University of North Dakota before making the jump to the NHL near the end of the season. Jost got ample experience in big game situations against older players in the NCAA tournament, and is expected to make an impact in the NHL this year.
Status Of 2017 First-Round Picks
By the end of September it will be clear where each of the 2017 first-round picks will be heading to continue their hockey careers, but we already have quite a few that have signed their entry-level contracts. That doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re ticketed for the NHL or even North America, as most will have their deals slide for an additional season. Still, below you can find the current status of each player and their likely destination for the 2017-18 season. While they aren’t final, it will give you an early idea of where to catch them this year.
Nico Hischier – New Jersey Devils – Signed ELC on July 15th. Likely starts the year with New Jersey.
Nolan Patrick – Philadelphia Flyers – Signed ELC on July 17th. Likely starts the year with Philadelphia.
Miro Heiskanen – Dallas Stars – Signed ELC on July 8th. Will play for HIFK this season (Finland).
Cale Makar – Colorado Avalanche – Will play for UMass-Amherst this season (NCAA).
Elias Pettersson – Vancouver Canucks – Will play for Vaxjo this season (Sweden).
Cody Glass – Vegas Golden Knights – Signed ELC on July 15th. Will likely play for Portland this season (WHL).
Lias Andersson – New York Rangers – Signed ELC on July 13th. Will battle for roster spot with New York, but likely play for Frolunda this season (Sweden).
Casey Mittelstadt – Buffalo Sabres – Will play for the University of Minnesota this season (NCAA).
Michael Rasmussen – Detroit Red Wings – Signed ELC on August 5th. Will likely play for Tri-City this season (WHL).
Owen Tippett – Florida Panthers – Signed ELC on July 19th. Will battle for roster spot with Florida; could play for Mississauga this season (OHL).
Gabe Vilardi – Los Angeles Kings – Will likely play for Windsor this season (OHL).
Martin Necas – Carolina Hurricanes – Signed ELC on July 14th. Will likely play for Brno this season (Czech Republic).
Nick Suzuki – Vegas Golden Knights – Signed ELC on July 15th. Will likely play for Owen Sound this season (OHL)
Cal Foote – Tampa Bay Lightning – Will likely play for Kelowna this season (WHL).
Erik Brannstrom – Vegas Golden Knights – Signed ELC on July 15th. Will play for HV71 this season (Sweden).
Juuso Valimaki – Calgary Flames- Signed ELC on July 21th. Will likely play for Tri-City this season (WHL).
Timothy Liljegren – Toronto Maple Leafs – Signed ELC on July 12th. Will likely play for Rogle this season (Sweden).
Urho Vaakanainen – Boston Bruins – Will play for SaiPa this season (Finland)
Josh Norris – San Jose Sharks – Will play for the University of Michigan this season (NCAA).
Robert Thomas – St. Louis Blues – Will play for London this season (OHL).
Filip Chytil – New York Rangers – Signed ELC on July 14th. Will likely play for HC Zlin this season (Czech Republic); could play for Hartford (AHL).
Kailer Yamamoto – Edmonton Oilers – Signed ELC on August 10th. Will likely play for Spokane this year (WHL).
Pierre-Olivier Joseph – Arizona Coyotes – Will likely play for Charlottetown this season (QMJHL).
Kristian Vesalainen – Winnipeg Jets – Will play for HPK this season (Finland).
Ryan Poehling – Montreal Canadiens – Will play for St. Cloud State University this season (NCAA).
Jake Oettinger – Dallas Stars – Will play for Boston University this season (NCAA).
Morgan Frost – Philadelphia Flyers – Signed ELC on August 3rd. Will play for Sault Ste. Marie this season (OHL).
Shane Bowers – Ottawa Senators – Will play for Boston University this season (NCAA).
Henri Jokiharju – Chicago Blackhawks – Will likely play for Portland this season (WHL).
Eeli Tolvanen – Nashville Predators – Will battle for a roster spot with Nashville, but will likely play for Jokerit this season (KHL).
Klim Kostin – St. Louis Blues – Signed ELC on July 5th. Will battle for roster spot with St. Louis; could play in AHL (St. Louis doesn’t have an AHL affiliate for this season, but will be providing players for Chicago and other teams).
Which 2017 Draft Picks Will Make Their Teams?
This year’s draft was notoriously thin in terms of elite talent, but that doesn’t mean that some of the top choices won’t make an impact. Of course, a lot will depend on training camp and whether players will return to Juniors, College, or overseas. Nico Hischier has already signed his entry-level contract with New Jersey, as has Nolan Patrick with Philadelphia. Both look primed to make their teams out of camp, even though Patrick will be recovering from an injury. It’s common for top picks to make their teams, and it would be shocking to see either fall short. Beyond these two, however, many of the top players till need seasoning.
The third pick, Miro Heiskanen, very well could return to the Finish Elite League for IFK, or theoretically be taken in the CHL import draft. Dallas doesn’t look like they’ll try to rush it with him, but anything is possible with this talented a player. Fourth overall was defenseman Cale Makar for Colorado, who is committed to play with the University of Massachussetts. Still, Colorado is hurting badly for skill and could benefit mightily from his dynamic presence on the blueline. Fifth overall was Elias Pettersson for Vancouver, who should return to Vaxjo of the SHL. He hasn’t signed an ELC and won’t attend training camp. Sixth overall Cody Glass looks primed to make a push for a spot in Vegas if he can show he belongs. The offense acquired via the expansion draft is very lean, and if Glass can round out his frame, the team may opt to toss him into the fire. He comes from a solid program with the Portland Winterhawks, and already surprised many with his ascension to first-round status in 2016-17.
Seventh overall was 5’11 center Lias Anderssson, who will fight for a position on the New York Rangers. In May, he signed a two-year contract with SHL’s Frolunda, so he might be one of the least likely of the group to see playing time in the near future. Casey Mittelstadt went eighth overall to Buffalo, and his phenomenal performance in the 2016 U-18 World Juniors played a large role in that. He only has USHL experience under his belt, however, and is committed to the Minnesota Gophers for the 2017-18 season. Michael Rasmussen is a towering, 6’6 center from Tri City of the WHL, and his overall physical package propelled him into that 9th selection by Detroit. Detroit is in need of cheap roster players on ELCs, but rushing a player of his caliber, especially coming off an injury-marred 2016-17 season, seems unlikely. GM Ken Holland is known for his patience when it comes to prospects. Rounding out the list, we have one of the few wingers selected in the first round – Owen Tippett of the OHL’s Mississauga Steelheads. His 44 goals in 60 games caught the attention of Florida’s scouts, and he could make things interesting with a solid camp showing.
In the final evaluation, there are really only two sure-fire picks to make their teams in the 2017-18 season. Of course, there are players later in the order who could surprise and get a look as well. Gabriel Vilardi (11) would inject some much needed offense to a floundering Los Angeles squad, and already possesses NHL size. Nick Suzuki (13) could transcend Glass in Vegas as his flashy speed and exceptional passing are already pro-level. Future teammate Erik Brannstrom (15) proved again that he belongs in the conversation in the recent Summer Showcase. Timothy Liljegren (17) is already making Toronto fans salivate at his potential, and there is always someone unexpected who completely blows away the competition in camp. We shouldn’t see more than one or two surprises, but anything is possible once the players retake the ice in August for some internal competition.
In your mind, which 2017 draft picks make the NHL starting roster for their teams, excluding the obvious Hischier and Patrick? Will any of these names compete for a Calder, or will there only be one or two immediately successful rookies from this class? (For comparison’s sake, 4 players played regularly last season of all the players selected in 2016).
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Which 2017 Draft Picks Will Make Their Teams?
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