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Cale Makar

An Avalanche Is Beginning In Colorado

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Over the last year, the Colorado Avalanche—and GM Joe Sakic in particular—have taken a lot of heat from media and fans for their performance on and off the ice. Heading into 2017 with a 12-23-1 record, they would go 10-33-3 over the last few months of the 2016-17 season to finish what was a historically bad campaign. Their players seemed to quit on the ice, and rumors of discontent in Jared Bednar’s locker room were rampant. Matt Duchene, one of the long-time faces of the franchise asked for a fresh start elsewhere, but was forced to finish the year and wasn’t promised anything going forward.

Cale MakarIn June, the team lost a young goaltender in Calvin Pickard to the expansion Vegas Golden Knights and were bumped all the way out of the top-3 in the draft lottery despite their last-place finish. Duchene trade rumors persisted, but Sakic wouldn’t lower his high asking price. Still, on the draft floor the Avalanche would be able to select exactly what they needed at fourth-overall. Cale Makar, an undersized defenseman whose most noticeable flaw was that he hadn’t played against high-level competition, dropped into their laps.

They’d be even more excited when Conor Timmins, a more traditional two-way defenseman from the OHL would slip out of the first round entirely. Timmins had climbed to 18th on the CSS rankings among North American skaters—and fourth among North American defensemen—by the end of the 2016-17 season, and yet still fell all the way to Colorado at 32nd-overall.

The rest of the summer went relatively uneventful, with all eyes still on Duchene, and the season began with a relatively similar Avalanche squad. The on-ice performance wouldn’t look anything like the end of the previous year though, as Colorado would go 8-5-0 through their first 13 games, led by a determined Duchene and energized Nathan MacKinnon. Then, on November 5th against the New York Islanders, Blake Comeau would be helped off the ice and down the tunnel to assess an injury. Behind him, Duchene would slip away as well, just informed that he’d been traded to the Ottawa Senators mid-game.

That deal, the one that Sakic had been pursuing for months, came about by involving both Ottawa and the Nashville Predators. The Avalanche finally received their asking price of a young NHL-ready defenseman (Samuel Girard), top prospect (Vladislav Kamenev) and first-round pick. Amazingly, they also added another top prospect in Shane Bowers, and two additional draft picks (Nashville’s 2018 second-round pick, and Ottawa’s 2019 third-round pick). It’s more than anyone expected Sakic would get for a player that now had fewer than two years remaining on his contract.

Colorado would lose that game against the Islanders, and the next two against the Duchene-led Senators while in Sweden. But since then, the team has gone 11-9-2 and is still in the playoff mix in the Western Conference. Their 41 points puts them at the bottom of the Central Division, but only three points behind the Anaheim Ducks for the final wildcard spot. That’s a huge step forward for a team that finished with only 48 points total in 2016-17.

It’s not going to end there.

While Girard is showing that he’s ready for a full-time role in the NHL at the tender age of 19, Makar and Timmins are starring for Team Canada at the World Junior tournament. Makar started as the team’s seventh defenseman, but has shone as Canada deals with injuries to several older and more experienced players. Both defensemen scored today against Switzerland, skating together at even-strength. Timmins is part of a powerhouse Sault Ste. Marie team in the OHL that has lost just three games in regulation, and could be in line for a Memorial Cup berth.

Suddenly, when you start imagining a blueline patrolled by those three and an offense led by MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, only 22 and 21 respectively, the future doesn’t look so bleak in Colorado. Add in other high-upside players like Tyson Jost (19) and Alexander Kerfoot (23), a captain in Gabriel Landeskog who just turned 25, and four selections in the top two rounds in what is shaping up to be an incredible draft class, and it might not be very long until there is more than just hope in the Avalanche dressing room.

Central Notes: Jost, Girard, Wennberg, Schwartz, Stastny

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After a Friday report suggested 19-year-old center Tyson Jost of the Colorado Avalance might be allowed to play for Hockey Canada in the upcoming World Junior Championship in Buffalo in a few weeks, a new report from Mike Chambers of the Denver Post today suggests the opposite. In fact neither Jost nor defenseman Samuel Girard are likely to be allowed to leave Colorado.

The scribe writes that Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said he didn’t see that happening.

“It’s not up to me, but if it were I’d say no. They’re part of our team and we need them,” Bednar said.

Both Jost and Girard have said they have not spoken to Colorado Avalanche general manager Joe Sakic about playing in the under-20 tournament, which will start on Dec. 26. The tournament already has two top Colorado prospects in 2017 first-round pick Cale Makar and second-round pick Connor Timmons.

Jost and Girard both play with the Avalanche, although both players playing time have dropped recently. Jost plays on the “Kid Line” with Alexander Kerfoot and J.T. Compher and is still finding his way, while Girard has seen his time drop under 20 minutes after playing above that mark during his first eight games with the team.

“I’m just getting in my groove after being hurt so long,” Jost said. “I want to be here. Hockey Canada, whenever you can represent your country, it’s such an honor. I had my chance last year. Right now, honestly, I’m just focusing on playing on the Avs, focusing on earning the coach’s trust and put up numbers. Obviously, I haven’t been doing that and I’m trying not to get frustrated because I’m getting my chances and getting that opportunity. It will come. That’s what I’m focused on right now and just getting in this rhythm.”

  • Lyle Richardson of The Hockey News suggests that despite the Columbus Blue Jackets’ previous stance that they are looking for a top-line center, many within the organization now feel that last year’s third overall pick, Pierre-Luc Dubois, is starting to show that he might be that player they were looking for. Dubois has taken a step forward in his development and now is centering the team’s top line with Artemi Panarin and Josh Anderson. Richardson even suggests that with the emergence of Dubois, the team might consider moving center Alexander Wennberg, who is struggling a bit this season after a 59-point season a year ago, and might be better off getting a chance on a different team, while the team focus on other areas of need. The team might need to get a center back, but with Brandon Dubinsky currently playing on the second line, the team might have an asset they could live without.
  • Tom Timmermann of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that St. Louis Blues winger Jaden Schwartz, who left today’s game against the Detroit Red Wings after taking a shot off his right foot is considered day-to-day. Coach Mike Yeo said X-rays were negative and he will be re-examined when they return to St. Louis. Any time missed would be a huge loss for the Blues. The 25-year-old scored his 14th goal of the season before going down today.
  • Staying with the Blues, The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford (subscription required) answers mailbag questions and writes that he doesn’t see the possibility of the NHL salary cap increasing potentially by $5MM as changing anything between negotiations between St. Louis and center Paul Stastny. Rutherford doesn’t believe that an increase in cap space will suddenly have general manager Doug Armstrong throwing money at Stastny. He believes the team has a set number in mind when it comes to Stastny and it will be up to him and his agent to decide if he wants to stay in St. Louis. The 31-year-old center hasn’t put up amazing numbers the last few years despite being paid $7MM AAV and will likely have to take a pay cut after his contract runs out at the end of the season. He currently has six goals and 20 points this season.

Hockey Canada Announces Preliminary World Junior Roster

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Like USA Hockey did yesterday, Hockey Canada has announced their preliminary World Junior Championship roster for the upcoming tournament in Buffalo, NY. The Canadian selection camp will have 32 players in it, but will have to whittle it down before the tournament begins. That group could potentially get a bonus should someone like Nolan Patrick or Victor Mete be sent back from their NHL squads in the next few weeks. The tournament officially begins on December 26th.

The roster is as follows:

G Carter Hart (PHI)
G Michael DiPietro (VAN)
G Colton Point (DAL)
G Samuel Harvey (2018 draft eligible)

D Kale Clague (LAK)
D Cale Makar (COL)
D Dante Fabbro (NSH)
D Jake Bean (CAR)
D Connor Timmins (COL)
D Logan Stanley (WPG)
D Cal Foote (TBL)
D Josh Mahura (ANA)
D Dennis Cholowski (DET)
D Mario Ferraro (SJS)

F Sam Steel (ANA)
F Michael McLeod (NJD)
F Jordan Kyrou (STL)
F Robert Thomas (STL)
F Dillon Dube (CGY)
F Brett Howden (TBL)
F Boris Katchouk (TBL)
F Nick Suzuki (VGK)
F Max Comtois (ANA)
F Alex Formenton (OTT)
F Jonathan Ang (FLA)
F Drake Batherson (OTT)
F Jonah Gadjovich (VAN)
F Cody Glass (VGK)
F Tanner Kaspick (STL)
F Kole Lind (VAN)
F Taylor Raddysh (TBL)
F Tyler Steenbergen (ARI)

The biggest surprises for Team Canada may be in the exclusions. Owen Tippett (FLA), Cliff Pu (BUF), Michael Rasmussen (DET), Adam Mascherin (FLA) and others were all expected to at least receive an invitation to the selection camp, but they will have to watch as their countrymen battle it out for the final spots.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Colorado Avalanche

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will look at what teams are thankful for as the season nears the quarter point of completion. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We take a look at what’s gone well in the first month and what could improve as the season rolls on. Yesterday we examined at the Washington Capitals.

What are the Colorado Avalanche most thankful for?

A conclusion to the Matt Duchene saga.

The hockey world has been all over the Avalanche and GM Joe Sakic for how they handled a trade request from one of their star players. Duchene wanted to get out of Colorado during a brutal 2016-17 season, but Sakic wasn’t willing to make a move until his high price was met. Earlier this month the bill was paid by the Ottawa Senators and Nashville Predators, and the unhappy Duchene can finally move on.

Sakic needed to include a third team in the deal but eventually did get his reported ask of a young mobile defenseman, first-round pick and top prospect. In fact, he even added another prospect and two other draft picks to that total, coming away with quite the haul for a single player. Samuel Girard (the young defenseman) has flashed his top-pairing potential early, while Duchene has struggled to get on the scoresheet in Ottawa. Though it is far from decided, Sakic came out of a hard situation quite well after months of harsh criticism.

Who are the Avalanche most thankful for?

Nathan MacKinnonNathan MacKinnon.

Overshadowed by the terrible record of the team, MacKinnon once again had a solid season for the Avalanche a year ago. With 53 points he easily led the team, and set career highs in shots and faceoff percentage. While nothing from last year’s Avalanche can be considered a positive, he at least wasn’t the anchor pulling the team down.

This year is another story. MacKinnon, surrounded by a young more dangerous offensive squad is off to a tremendous start with 25 points in 20 games. That number puts him among the leaders in the league, and at the ripe old age of 22 there is still a legitimate chance his game could get even better over the next few years. Locked in at just $6.3MM per season through 2022-23, the Avalanche are in a prime position to build around their underpaid superstar with the next wave of talent.

What would the Avalanche be even more thankful for?

A return to form for Semyon Varlamov.

In 2013-14 a 25-year old Varlamov played in 63 games for the Avalanche, recording a league-leading 41 wins and posting a .927 save percentage. That was good enough to earn him a fourth-place finish in Hart Trophy voting, while coming in just behind Tuukka Rask for the Vezina. Varlamov was an elite goaltender in the league and was rewarded with a five-year extension mid-season.

Since then, his save percentage has dropped to an average .913 and sits at just .903 this season. While last year’s struggles can be explained away at least somewhat by injury, this year has shown him to be an average-at-best netminder in the league. A bounce-back to his previous highs would make the Avalanche an legitimate bubble candidate for the playoffs, if they aren’t already.

Varlamov has another year left on that extension after this season at $5.9MM, and will have to prove he can still be a starting goaltender in this league if he wants another contract with the Avalanche.

What should be on the Avalanche Holiday Wish List?

More young defensemen.

Even though the team has added Girard, brought over Andrei Mironov and drafted Cale Makar, there is still a shortage of NHL-caliber defenders in their system. Nikita Zadorov fulfilling some of his potential would help, but the team will likely still be after other intriguing young defensemen on the trade market.

With some interesting trade chips to use this season—there is no telling whether Gabriel Landeskog and Tyson Barrie are still on the market, but they weren’t part of Sakic’s “untouchable” group last year—the Avalanche could once again infuse some immediate talent into the back end.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

The Post-Duchene Era: Colorado’s New Path To Success

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The Colorado Avalanche aren’t ready to compete for the Stanley Cup. No one is saying they will. Even if their current players are hoping to squeeze their way into the playoffs, they’re still more likely to finish somewhere in the bottom half (or even third) of the league. But there is still that hope.

In August, PHR ran an article entitled Colorado’s Tumultuous Twelve Months which chronicled the fall of the Avalanche after Patrick Roy left the team on the precipice of the season, and all the heartbreak that followed. The 2016-17 version of the Avalanche was one of the worst teams in NHL history, and their reward—dropping to fourth overall in the entry draft—was the final blow. But, as we wrote then, there was reason for (say it with me) hope.

Add in that Matt Duchene is still likely to bring a big return at some point, Jonathan Bernier could be a trade-deadline asset, and the team could be surprisingly successful in short order. While a playoff spot still seems like a distant goal, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. The defense still needs work—the team doesn’t even have Nikita Zadorov under contract yet—but with another lottery chance in what’s shaping up to be an incredibly deep draft in 2018, the Avalanche could have a quicker turnaround than many expect.

The Avalanche did cash in their Duchene-shaped poker chip, using him as a catalyst for the massive three-team trade this past weekend. In return, not only did they set themselves up well for the 2018 draft—the same one that is still looking incredibly deep—but did a lot of the heavy lifting on the defense rebuild. Samuel Girard, the centerpiece of the Duchene deal, is a blue-chip prospect that is perfectly built for the new NHL. When you describe his best qualities, Avalanche fans may think you’re talking about someone else.

Excellent mobility. Quick decision making. Superb puck skills. Are we talking about Girard or Cale Makar, the other top defensive prospect obtained in the last few months?

Makar is spending the year at UMass-Amherst, where he recently scored his first collegiate goal and seems to take on more minutes and more responsibility on a nightly basis. Head coach Greg Carval recently called him “remarkable” and spoke about all the intangibles Makar brings to the team, even as a freshman. When he’s ready to turn pro, there is no doubt he’ll be a difference-maker in the NHL.

That August article also mentioned two other names, Nikita Zadorov and Jonathan Bernier. The former did eventually sign, inking a two-year deal with the team that told him “prove it.” It’s not gone swimmingly early on, as Zadorov has been a healthy scratch and generally ineffective in his role. By no means does he look out of place in the NHL, but hasn’t shown that shutdown ability both Buffalo (who drafted him 16th-overall in 2013) and Colorado (who included him as the centerpiece of the Ryan O’Reilly deal) believed he could.

In Bernier’s case, his season has gone much the way his career has. At times he looks outstanding, able to shoulder the load as a starter in the NHL. But then there is the other Bernier, who can allow six goals on 28 shots and look small and defeated in the net. It’s just five games for him this season as the backup to Semyon Varlamov, but even if he has his occasional stinker he’ll still be worth something at the deadline as an expiring, relatively inexpensive contract.

Which brings us to the final (and perhaps most important) piece of good news for the Avalanche. In Elliotte Friedman’s latest 31 Thoughts column for Sportsnet, one of the smaller notes was about Colorado’s salary structure going forward. With the departing of Duchene and his $6MM hit, the team now has approximately $26MM in cap space (via CapFriendly) for next season with 17 players already under contract. In a league that cap space is king, that is a perfect situation for a rebuilding club. Colorado will be able to pick and choose the contracts they want to sign over the next few years with only Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Erik Johnson locked in past the 2019-20 season.

So what does this all mean? Are the Avalanche the new model for a rebuilding club? No. Not everything has been perfect, not by any means. But for all the horror that was last season, when the team was continually going on losing streaks of four, five or even nine games, there is—to borrow from that August article—a light at the end of the tunnel. Suddenly, a defensive prospect system that was completely bare is stocked with two legitimate top names. A forward group that was dominated by disappointment and trade talk has now catapulted the team to the top half of the league in scoring and features several budding stars.

Add in the fact that they’ll likely pick four times (at least) in the first 60 selections come June, and there’s one thing on the minds of Colorado Avalanche fans.

Hope.

Matt Duchene Traded To Ottawa, Turris to Nashville

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The long-awaited trade, and I mean long-awaited, has finally happened as the Colorado Avalanche have traded their 26-year-old franchise center Matt Duchene to the Ottawa Senators in a three-team trade with the Nashville Predators, according to Elliotte Friedman. Ottawa will send veteran center Kyle Turris to Nashville, while Colorado receives a package of players and picks.

According to Friedman, the Avalanche will receive defenseman Samuel Girard and winger Vladislav Kamenev from Nashville and center Shane Bowers and goaltender Andrew Hammond from Ottawa. The Avs will also receive Ottawa’s 2018 first-round pick (top-10 protected), Nashville’s 2018 second-round pick and Ottawa’s 2019 third-round pick in the deal. Friedman adds that if the Senators 2018 first-round pick falls in the top 10, then it rotates to a 2019 first-rounder instead.

As part of the deal, the Predators have extended Turris with a six-year, $36MM extension that ensures him a long-term place as the team’s second-line center.

Those three teams attempted to complete a similar deal yesterday, but the deal fell through and after it was leaked to the press, many thought the trade could not be revisited. However, with two disgruntled players in Duchene and Turris, the three teams were able to get the deal done. In fact, the team made the trade in the middle of their game with the New York Islanders as Duchene was informed and removed from the game during the first period of action. Ironically, he will join his new teammates in Sweden when they face off against the Avalanche for two games on Nov. 10 and 11.

Duchene, the team’s face of their franchise for the last several years, was the third overall pick in 2009 and has been a key scorer for the team over the past nine seasons. The 26-year-old center has scored 178 goals and 250 assists in 585 games for Colorado. However, as the team has struggled especially over the past three years, combining for 100-126-20 record, the disgruntled center had hoped to be traded, but the high demands of general manager Joe Sakic made it difficult for teams to acquire Duchene. Instead, an entire offseason of speculation only created more drama and when training camp opened and Duchene was still in Colorado, he demanded a trade. Part of the problem was Duchene’s poor performance last year when the team had 56 losses and the center’s numbers were down. He tallied just 18 goals and 41 points last year. Duchene rebounded slightly this year, having put up four goals and six assists in 12 games.

In Ottawa, Duchene replaces Turris, a long-time member of the franchise who has scored 117 goals for the Senators in seven season. Turris, who would have been a free agent next year, wanted a seven-year deal with the franchise and at age 28, the team was hesitant to give him that type of long-term deal, especially when they have already committed a lot of money to aging players such as Dion Phaneuf and Bobby Ryan. Duchene gives the franchise more time as he is locked into his five-year, 30MM deal until after the 2018-19 season. And, at age 26, is a little younger than Turris.

Turris gives the Predators the second-string center they needed. This allows free agent acquisition Nick Bonino to center the team’s third line and Colton Sissons and Calle Jarnkrok to battle it out on that final line. Now locked up for the next six years after this one, Turris should provide stability for the franchise up the middle. He had an impressive year last year, putting up 27 goals and 28 assists for 55 points. So far in 11 games this year, Turris has three goals and nine points.

As for the Avalanche, it looks as if Sakic got exactly what he was hoping for as the team got a large haul for Duchene. The key to the trade was Girard, an offensively-gifted defenseman, who still needs to work on his defense. Sometimes compared to Will Butcher, who the team lost to New Jersey this offseason, he should help stabilize their defense. The 19-year-old blueliner made the Nashville team out of training camp, but has still only played five games with Nashville, which will force Colorado to decide whether to keep him with their team and burn his first year of his entry-level deal or send him back to his junior team and not get him back until his season is over. The Predators second-round pick in 2016 has been impressive on a team loaded with quality defenseman, but has found himself watching games from the press box lately. An elite skater with excellent passing skills, Girard should be a key member of the team’s defense along with 2017 first-rounder Cale Makar.

Kamenev, the Predators’ 2014 second-round pick, has been playing with the Milwaukee Admirals this year and has put up solid numbers with three goals and five assists in nine games so far. Last year, the 21-year-old prospect put up 21 goals and 30 assists for Milwaukee. A solid skater with excellent hands and size (6-foot-2), he could easily fit on one of the team’s lower lines to start off.

Ottawa also moved one of their top prospects. Already loaded with Colin White, Logan Brown and Filip Chlapik, the team felt comfortable trading Bowers, their 2017 first-rounder. Picked 28th overall, the 18-year-old center is currently playing for Boston University and has four goals and two assists in 10 games for the Hockey East team. Ottawa also got a break in sending Hammond to Colorado. The 29-year-old former backup goaltender lost his job to Mike Condon last season and was eventually put on waivers and sent to Belleville. Not long after, Hammond suffered a hip injury that required surgery. He will likely be sent to San Antonio, providing goaltending insurance for the Avalanche. It frees up logjam of goalies the team has in Belleville as the team already has 31-year-old Daniel Taylor as the two veterans are holding up the team’s young goalies.

Colorado also will get two extra picks in a strong 2018 draft and now will have two first-round picks, two second-round picks and a third-round pick. The extra third-rounder will have to wait until 2019.

Snapshots: Nyquist, Makar, Price

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The Detroit Red Wings have dropped below .500 again with their loss last night to the Ottawa Senators, and the groans from hockey fans in Michigan are beginning again. Yesterday, our Nate Brown took a look at the coaching staff’s part in the sluggish start, and today Craig Custance of The Athletic went in depth on the trade value of a certain first-line asset.

Gustav Nyquist is an interesting piece for the Red Wings, under contract through the end of next season. The 28-year old forward was once one of the hottest scoring threats in the league, registering 48 points in 57 games in the 2013-14 season. That garnered him some Hart Trophy votes and a place on the Swedish Olympic team, but he hasn’t had quite the same impact since. Custance has some great quotes from scouts and front office types around the league on his perceived value, which isn’t as high as it could be if he can find some kind of consistency over the next few months.

  • Cale Makar is off to quite a start at UMass reports Craig Button of TSN. The fourth-overall pick of 2017 is a shining light for the Colorado Avalanche in their continued defensive struggles. Makar is the kind of defenseman who can bring you to your feet at any moment, and is starting to adapt to playing against higher competition. It will be interesting to see how long he stays in the college ranks, before being recruited to jump to the NHL with the Avalanche.
  • Although it’s clearly not serious, Carey Price wasn’t present at Montreal Canadiens practice today as he nursed a lower-body injury. The team is expected to recall a goaltender and will have Al Montoya start on Saturday night against the Winnipeg Jets. It might be good for Price to get some time off, as he’s struggled mightily through the early part of the season. With an .877 save percentage through 11 games, he’s leading the league in goals allowed and losses. About to start an eight-year, $84MM contract extension next season, the Canadiens need Price to get back to his all-world ways as soon as possible.

2017-18 NCAA Players To Watch

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Just like their professional and junior counterparts, the college hockey season is underway. With each passing year, the NCAA’s influence on the world of hockey grows, and in 2017-18 the college ranks contain an impressive amount of talent:

The Recent Draft Picks

D Cale Makar, UMass (COL) – The fourth overall pick this past June, Makar arguably has the highest upside of any player in his draft class. He’s even drawn comparisons to Erik Karlsson. He would be a big deal at any school, but for a Minutemen team that has struggled greatly in recent years, Makar stands to revolutionize coach Greg Carvel’s program. Fans in Amherst hope that Makar won’t be “one and done”, but the Colorado Avalanche need him just as much as UMass does. This exceptional skater could be an offensive force in the NHL sooner rather than later.

C Casey Mittelstadt, Minnesota (BUF) – Mittelstadt may have slipped in the 2017 draft, but the eighth overall pick is a dynamic offensive talent with speed and creativity. Perhaps more than anything, Mittelstadt thinks the game at an advanced level. The Gophers have a special talent on their hands and he could make waves in the NCAA this season. The only concern is whether the high school star yet has the physical tools to play at a high level.

C Ryan Poehling, St. Cloud State (MTL) – The college ranks have already seen a year’s worth of Poehling, but as the two-way threat enters his sophomore season, he’s primed to show more of his offensive ability. The 25th overall pick is as solid a center as can be found at his age and simply needs to bring the same knack for scoring as he brings to defense. He’s developing into the type of player that Canadiens head coach Claude Julien loves. If Montreal struggles to acclimate to their new coach’s defense-first system, Poehling could even be a late-season addition.

The Soon-To-Be Draft Picks

RW Brady Tkachuk, Boston University – The trend of NCAA freshman going early in the draft may reach a new high in 2017, with Tkachuk leading the charge. The son of Keith Tkachuk and brother of Matthew Tkachuk, Brady brings the same physicality and knack for scoring to his power forward role. Already 6’3”, 200-lbs. and still growing, Tkachuk will one day be a force in the NHL like his family members, but first he’s going give the college game a run for its money. Tkachuk will be fun to watch this season, especially for fans of teams looking like lottery candidates.

D Quinn Hughes, Michigan – Hughes will push Tkachuk to be the first college player selected next June, but in reality both players could easily be top ten, even top five picks. An undersized, but unbelievably skilled blue liner, Hughes could be one of the top scoring defenseman in the NCAA. The Wolverines have become the recruiting capital for top American defenseman and Hughes is their poster boy. Expect a big season from the 17-year-old.

LW Michael Pastujov, Michigan – Joining Hughes in Ann Arbor is the Florida-native Pastujov, a raw, but high-ceiling forward. An underrated member of last year’s U.S. National Development team behind the likes of Tkachuk and recent draft picks/current college players Josh Norris, Grant Mismash, and Evan Barratt in the forward corps, Pastujov’s successes were often lost in the mix. However, Michigan may be strong on defense, but ranked only 42nd in scoring last year. Alongside Norris, the San Jose Sharks’ first-round pick whom he should have some leftover chemistry with, Pastujov could be one of the top offensive threats for the Wolverines. He’s primed for a breakout campaign that could vault him into first-round consideration.

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The Best Fits For Matt Duchene

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Despite the tumultuous off-season for Matt Duchene and the Colorado Avalanche, GM Joe Sakic fully expects him to show up to training camp. At least, that’s what he told BSN Denver’s Adrian Dater. “He’s under contract and I expect him to be here” Sakic said, “Not everybody always comes to camp early. It’s not for me to (say), but I assume on the 14th, he’ll be here.” Sakic is referring to Duchene being one of only two Avs players under contract not to participate in captain’s practice last week. Holdouts may be rare in the NHL, but Duchene’s words and actions this summer have painted a pretty clear picture of a player who would like to leave Colorado.

If Duchene has reached his wit’s end with the trade rumors that have persisted since late 2016 and truly has no intention of suiting up for the Avalanche again, Sakic has just a few days left to trade him before this begins to enter holdout territory. The perceived problem all along is that Sakic has not dropped the asking price that has long been considered a young top-four defenseman, a first round pick, and one or two more young roster players or prospects. Not only do few (read: any) NHL teams have a young top-four blue liner to spare, but it’s hard to imagine anyone giving up such a package for Duchene, who has just two seasons remaining on his contract and is coming off a down 2016-17 season. Duchene had scored 55 or more points in five of his seven NHL seasons entering last year – and easily would have made it six had the the 2012-13 lockout-shorten seasoned been extended – yet, he ended up with only 41 points and an egregious -34 rating last season; a low point for both he and the Avalanche franchise.

Logic would seem to indicate that, holdout or not, Sakic has to continue listening to offers for Duchene and needs to lower an unreasonable asking price. TSN recently released their list  of the top nine NHL trade candidates this season, with Duchene obviously at the top. They list the Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Islanders, Montreal Canadiens, Boston Bruins, Nashville Predators, and Pittsburgh Penguins as the mostly likely destinations for Duchene. The Carolina Hurricanes and San Jose Sharks have also been in the rumor mix this summer.

Right away, a few of those options can have their odds discounted. Having just traded away Travis Hamonic and traded for Jordan Eberle, the New York Islanders and their estimated $3MM in cap space likely lack the capacity and the desire to pony up for Duchene at this point. The Isles are still deep on defense, but with Thomas Hickey and Dennis Seidenberg approaching free agency next year, trading yet another young defenseman like Calvin de Haan, Adam Pelech or Ryan Pulock could put the team in hole. Without one of those three, it is hard to see New York making a suitable offer. The defending two-time Cup champs are in a similar situation. While many Pens fans would love to see the embarrassment of riches of Duchene as the third line center behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh too lacks the cap space, currently about $3.25MM, and the pieces to get the job done. That is, unless Sakic is keen on Olli Maatta or the Penguins offer up Brian Dumoulin, Justin Schultz, or an overwhelming offer of picks and prospects including Derrick Pouliot and enough salary to offset Duchene. It’s a series of unlikely scenarios. Additionally, the Montreal Canadiens lack anything remotely close to a young top four defenseman. Duchene would be a great fit for the Habs, but they simply don’t have the pieces.

The Hurricanes and Bruins certainly have the pieces to acquire Duchene, but it seems unlikely that either will be the team to finally do it. Boston was in talks with Colorado last year, but balked at the ask of a package including Charlie McAvoy or Brandon Carlo and wouldn’t be willing to move Torey Krug either. If the price drops, the B’s have talented young defenders like Jakob Zboril, Jeremy Lauzon, Ryan Lindgren, and 2017 first rounder Uhro Vaakanainen waiting in the wings, but even if that was enough, the Bruins’ quiet off-season has indicated that they would like to move forward with their own young players this season. Carolina, on the other hand, is a Duchene-caliber player away from being a true contender and would love to add someone with his ability. However, GM Ron Francis has made it clear that he does not want to trade any of his defensemen. That hasn’t stopped TSN for listing “a Carolina defenseman” as one of their top trade candidates, but as of now there is no reason to think any of Justin Faulk, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, or Noah Hanifin are going anywhere. Like Boston, Carolina still has solid pieces if the price drops, such as Haydn Fleury and Jake Bean, but another thought has been whispered this summer that may take Carolina out of the Duchene race altogether. Since acquiring Trevor van Riemsdyk from the Vegas Golden Knights back in June, a player who by all accounts they didn’t really need, many have speculated that Carolina is looking to make a run at 2018 premiere free agent James van Riemsdyk, to bring in the scoring power forward that they desperately desire.

The Blue Jackets and Sharks would be ideal landing spots for Duchene, but both teams would need to get creative with their offers. Both squads have a need for a scoring forward, the cap space to take him on and plenty of talented defensemen, but what they would be willing up on the blue line is not exactly what Colorado desires. There is no way that Columbus includes Zach Werenski or Seth Jones in a deal, but could be open to trading David Savard or Ryan Murray. However, each have a caveat. Savard, while a solid top-four talent, has had durability issues and difficulty with consistent production over the past couple of years. While he would be a great addition to any defense, that may not be what Sakic is looking to get back. Murray, while injury prone, is a highly-skilled young rearguard, but, amazingly, the 24-year-old will be an unrestricted free agent next summer. Any deal involving Murray would first have to include a long-term extension with the league’s worst team. Columbus’ best chance of getting Duchene likely involves a package with top defensive prospect Gabriel Carlsson and a young roster player like Josh Anderson or Oliver Bjorkstrand. San Jose also has a few untouchables on defense, namely superstars Brent Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Colorado also wouldn’t be interested in veterans Paul Martin and Justin Braun. That leaves Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo as the top options. While both have shown top-four potential, they have largely played shutdown roles in their young careers and bring little offensive upside. Like Savard, one would think that Sakic has a little more in mind for the Duchene return than stay-at-home defenders like Dillon and DeMelo. If the Sharks package versatile puck-moving D-prospect Jeremy Roy with either though, then talks could really get started. A package that starts like that and ends with a first-round pick and one of San Jose’s many young forwards could be enough to seal the deal.

Yet, the top candidate to bring in Duchene is likely the reigning Western Conference champs. No, the Predators are not moving any of Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, or Mattias Ekholm, but the trick up their sleeve is top prospect Dante Fabbro. A junior teammate of Colorado top prospect Tyson Jost, Fabbro is considered one of the best prospects in hockey and should step into a top four role immediately when he leaves Boston University, much like Charlie McAvoy, who Sakic already targeted in Boston. Fabbro is not just a top-four defenseman, but a potential future #1 or at least a great option to pair with Cale Makar down the road. Sakic would be hard-pressed to find more upside up for grabs than Fabbro, but the Predators are set long-term on the blue line and desperately need to recoup the scoring lost in the Expansion Draft with the selection of James Neal. Fabbro, plus a young forward like Colton Sissons, Frederick Gaudreau, or Pontus Aberg, plus a first rounder and another pick or prospect, and Duchene could surely be on his way to Nashville.

Only time will tell where Duchene ends up, but the best case scenario for all parties is for that destination to not be Denver, Colorado for much longer. Sakic must and will eventually lower his asking price and someone will meet those demands. Could it be Nashville, Columbus, or San Jose? Definitely. Could it be Boston or Carolina? The Islanders or the Penguins? Possibly. Someone totally off the board? Of course. For such a talked-about topic, there is still so much uncertainty surrounding the situation. The next step will be to see if Duchene shows up to camp on Thursday. That decision could have a resounding effect on the trade process.

Colorado’s Tumultuous Twelve Months

at CDT | by 2 Comments

The Colorado Avalanche have had a tough 12 months. On August 11th, 2016 legendary goaltender and then head coach Patrick Roy left the organization in a public resignation less than a month before training camp was due to start. His departure was reported to have stemmed at least partially from Tyson Barrie’s new four-year contract, signed less than two weeks prior. Roy left the Avalanche scrambling for a new coach, and though Jared Bednar would eventually brought in things were never stable.

"<strongThe season started remarkably well with three wins in the first four games, but it wouldn’t take long for the Avalanche to drop to the bottom of the standings. By Christmas, they were 12-20-1 and they would win just ten more games the rest of the way. At the trade deadline, other teams were circling like vultures trying to pry Gabriel Landeskog and Matt Duchene away from GM Joe Sakic, but the Avalanche GM wouldn’t budge. His high asking priced held firm, and instead of selling off top assets he sat relatively silent (apologies to Jarome Iginla and Andreas Martinsen).

Though the speculation on Landeskog died down, Duchene was another story. Rumors would follow him through the end of the season and to the entry draft, where Colorado fell out of the top three picks despite a historically bad finish. The draft lottery is a cruel mistress, and Sakic saw New Jersey, Philadelphia and Dallas stride to the podium before him.

But that’s where things have started to change. Rumored to be a possibility for the top-two picks as close as the morning of the draft, Cale Makar made it to the fourth pick where Sakic immediately snapped him up. The dynamic puck-rushing defender has as much risk as anyone taken in the top five, but could also become one of the premiere offensive defensemen in the new NHL. He’s heading to UMass in the fall, but has already said he doesn’t expect to spend all four years there.

"<strongWhile the Duchene shadow still looms over the Avalanche, they’ve done well lately to add young players with little to no risk. Dominic Toninato and Alex Kerfoot were among the best available NCAA free agents, and though Colorado lost Will Butcher, the pair of forwards more than make up for it. They’ll join an impressive young group forming for the Avalanche.

Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Tyson Jost, J.T. Compher, A.J. Greer and the two free agents represent a 23-and-under group that could be quite formidable if given the chance, and the wildcard of Nail Yakupov also exists. If the former first-overall pick could ever live up to his immense goal scoring potential, Colorado could be hard to contain.

Add in that Duchene is still likely to bring a big return at some point, and Jonathan Bernier could be a trade-deadline asset, and the team could be surprisingly successful in short order. While a playoff spot still seems like a distant goal, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. The defense still needs work—the team doesn’t even have Nikita Zadorov under contract yet—but with another lottery chance in what’s shaping up to be an incredibly deep draft in 2018, the Avalanche could have a quicker turnaround than many expect.

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