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Anthony Stolarz

Expansion Primer: Philadelphia Flyers

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Philadelphia Flyers are coming off a disappointing season of Metropolitan struggles. Thankfully, with the #2 pick in the upcoming draft, they will receive an infusion a top level talent in Nico Hischier or Nolan Patrick. There aren’t a ton of success stories from this last season for the Flyers, in which Wayne Simmonds led the way up front. Many players took a noticeable step back and the younger forwards failed to produce at an impactful clip.

The Flyers are in desperate need of embracing a full youth movement. The longer they cling to players like Andrew MacDonald, the worse off their rebuild will be. This is not a team that can compete for a Stanley Cup in the near future and with the expansion draft forcing tough decisions, now is the time to embrace that organizational mentality.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Claude Giroux (NMC), Valtteri Filppula (NMC), Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier, Matt Read, Dale Weise, Michael Raffl, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Nick Cousins, Scott Laughton, Greg Carey, Colin McDonald, Taylor Leier

Defense
Andrew MacDonald, Radko Gudas, Brandon Manning, Shayne Gostisbehere, T.J. Brennan, Will O’Neill, Jesper Pettersson

Goaltender
Michal Neuvirth, Anthony Stolarz

Notable Exemptions

Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, Samuel Morin, Carter Hart

Key Decisions

The Flyers have to protect two players – both of whom are probably not deserving of the no movement clause they have been granted. Giroux had his second straight offensively disappointing season. At $8.275 MM a season until 2022, the Flyers have created a really difficult situation for themselves. And although previous GM Paul Holmgren was somehow able to unload Mike Richards prior to his momentous fall from grace, Giroux is already known to be an albatross. He’s still producing, with 14 goals and 58 points in his last outing, but he is struggling to be a difference maker against tough competition. Filppula only played 20 games this past season for Philadelphia, so any criticism might be premature. But the well-rounded center has only broken 20 goals twice in his career, most recently 4 seasons ago. He seems rather redundant on a team with lots of mediocre offensive talents.

Voracek might also be slightly overpaid for what he brings to the team ($8.25 MM), as his possession metrics have trended consistently downward over the course of four seasons. That said, he was Philadelphia’s leading scorer in 2016-17 and has a secure roster spot. He’s only two years removed from an All-Star appearance, but is he dominant enough to carry an offense if another key member struggles again? Simmonds is an obvious keeper for the physical edge he brings along with his consistent production.  The net-front presence and leadership skills make him a prime candidate for captain if Giroux were somehow jettisoned in the near future. Both Schenn and Couturier are promising key pieces to the future of the squad, and had solid outings last season.

From here, the decision at forward gets difficult. Weal had solid underlying metrics and showed flexibility in his game. Does GM Ron Hextall believe there is there more to his game, and if so, is he worth signing as a UFA before the expansion draft, burning a protection slot? Probably not. Some believe Cousins is worth protecting, as he is still young at 23 years old, and shown potential at the AHL level. With the other players vying for the position, however, the organization would have to be incredibly high on his ability to piece it all together next season.

The three serious remaining choices – Laughton, Raffl, and Bellemare – a group which likely contains the player to be claimed by Vegas, poses a question which will be entirely decided by organizational philosophy. Laughton is the player who has the highest upside but also the greatest potential for bust. Mike Raffl is a consistent producer whose ability would guarantee a certain amount of offense on a forward corps that can really struggles over long stretches. Bellemare is your classic heart-and-soul player – his latest perfomance in the World Championships put that on display for all onlookers. In the end, based on the praise afforded him by the coaching staff and other players, as well as his assistant captainship, Bellemare could easily find himself as the final protected player. Whether that is the correct long-term decision will be a topic of great scrutiny.

On defense, there are very few players signed. Gudas and Gostisbehere will absolutely be protected, so the third choice is the only one up for debate. Many believe that MacDonald is considered the veteran savvy anchor, but his possession stats have been poor, while his turnover frequency has been disturbing. He plays over 20 minutes a night, but hasn’t performed as consistently as a top-pairing player should. Manning still has room to improve, is four years younger, and posts a positive Corsi influence (51.3%) on a corps that truly floundered all season. Neither is going to be a game breaker for Vegas, but it would seem odd that Philadelphia wouldn’t roll the dice and expose MacDonald in hopes that his $5 MM contract for three more seasons could be removed from the books.

The goaltending decision will be an interesting one for outside watchers. With Steve Mason gone, Neuvirth is obviously their tender going forward, correct? Well, perhaps not. Neuvirth’s stats (.901 SV%) really don’t justify his protection, and especially considering the forward situation, he would almost certainly not be claimed. Stolarz is the goaltender of the immediate future for the team and will see quite a bit of duty this year. The 6’6″ former London Knight is going to be relied upon to take a step forward, and his progression in Lehigh Valley has been quite promising. Exposing him could backfire in a way that leaving Neuvirth open for taking could not. If the team is serious about a youth movement, his value as an asset needs to be shielded.

After quite a few tough determinations, and trying to be realistic about the organization’s valuation of certain players, what follows is the final projection for Philadelphia.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F / 3D / 1G

Forwards
Claude Giroux (NMC)
Valtteri Filppula (NMC)
Sean Couturier
Wayne Simmonds
Brayden Schenn
Jakub Voracek
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare

Defensemen
Shayne Gostisbehere
Radko Gudas
Brandon Manning

Goaltender
Anthony Stolarz

Offseason Keys: Philadelphia Flyers

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While the expansion draft is set to headline a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months ahead. Here is a closer look at what lies ahead for the Philadelphia Flyers.

After making the playoffs in 2015-16, expectations were high in Philadelphia this season.  However, they wound up taking a step backwards as inconsistency plagued them throughout the year and they came up a little short of making the postseason.  They did receive a nice consolation prize in the form of the second overall pick through the draft lottery, starting the offseason on a high note.  Here’s what’s in store for Ron Hextall and the Flyers this summer.

New Deal For Gostisbehere

Shayne Gostisbehere burst onto the scene in 2015-16 after a recall a month into the year as he quickly became one of the top offensive threats from the back end in the entire NHL.  Expectations were high heading into his first full NHL season but he struggled to repeat his freshman performance while even being scratched periodically.

Nov 23, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere (53) passes the puck against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the third period at Amalie Arena. Tampa Bay Lightning defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY SportsGostisbehere’s entry level contract expires in July and he is Philadelphia’s most prominent restricted free agent.  Although he had a down season, he still put up 39 points which ranked him in the top-25 league-wide.  He’s viewed as a key cog for the Flyers and accordingly, he has a case for a big contract.

Had the 24 year old taken a step forward or two this season, it would have been easy to anticipate Hextall being more than comfortable signing him long-term.  However, given Gostisbehere’s drop in production and role, the GM may be inclined to look for a short-term bridge deal.  From a cap standpoint, the Flyers have plenty of space to work with this offseason (something that hasn’t been said for quite a while) so they certainly have the flexibility to go either way with their young defenseman.

Find A Starting Goalie

This one is a familiar key for Philly fans.  Despite bringing in some prominent netminders over the years, they’ve struggled to find a consistent number one goalie.  The tandem of Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth didn’t get the job done this season and while Neuvirth signed a two year, $5MM extension at the deadline, he’s not really being viewed as the long-term solution.  Mason is set to become an unrestricted free agent and indicated after the season he wasn’t likely to re-sign if the platoon situation was in place again next season.

Anthony Stolarz is coming off a bit of a down season himself at the AHL level but is still viewed as a prospect with some NHL upside.  As things stand, he’s in line to make a push for a spot with the Flyers (assuming he makes it through expansion) but the pending RFA also has another year of waiver exemption remaining which increases the likelihood that he will start with AHL Lehigh Valley next year.

There are going to be quite a few goalies available between free agency and the trade market, several of which could come in and take over the starting role.  While there aren’t any long-term solutions available, there are some players who could hold down the fort for a year or two which, given the quality prospects Philadelphia has in the system between the pipes, might just be exactly what they need.

Reshape The Back End

One way or the other, the defense is going to likely look a lot different next season.  Mark Streit was dealt away at the deadline while other pending UFAs in Michael Del Zotto and Nick Schultz aren’t expected to return.

The Flyers have several young prospects that are nearly ready to make the jump to the NHL, including Samuel Morin, Robert Hagg, and Travis Sanheim.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see Hextall opt to leave a spot or two open heading into training camp for their youngsters to try to step up and seize a spot.

That said, given the payroll room they have to work with, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see them be active in free agency to try to add a quality veteran.  An alternative option may be to utilize the pre-expansion trade market as they really only have two blueliners that are must-protect players in Gostisbehere and Radko Gudas.  Hextall could opt to make a trade before Vegas makes their selection and add to their blueline that way.  Philadelphia has plenty of options to change up their defense corps for next season and it certainly will be interesting to see which route they wind up taking.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Anthony Stolarz And The Expansion Draft

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The Philadelphia Flyers may not be desperate for a goalie, but they’re not in the best of shape either. Heading into the off-season, the Flyers will likely say goodbye to impending free agent starter Steve Mason, but re-signed Michal Neuvirth to a two-year, $5MM extension earlier this season. Behind Neuvirth, Philly has Anthony Stolarz, a 2012 second-round pick who looked great in seven appearances in his rookie season. The Flyers also have promising prospects Carter Hart and Felix Sandstrom in the system, but it seems unlikely that either is ready for NHL action just yet.

So it’ll be Neuvirth and Stolarz next season? That’s not too bad. However, this is the 2017 off-season approaching and nothing is that simple. Both Neuvirth and Stolarz are eligible for the upcoming NHL Expansion Draft and both should be attractive to GM George McPhee and the Vegas Golden Knights. Stolarz is young and under team control as a restricted free agent and could be valuable to Vegas as either an investment or a potential trade chip. Neuvirth is relatively cheap at $2.5MM per year through 2018-19 and was drafted by McPhee when he was with the Washington Capitals. He would immediately provide some veteran presence to a goalie group that is expected to skew very young.

The question then becomes: if Vegas has interest in both, who should Philadelphia protect? At first, the obvious answer seemed to be Stolarz. Not only is he much younger than Neuvirth, but he simply outplayed him when given the chance in 2016-17. Stolarz has just as good a chance to be the goalie of the future in Philly as any of the other Flyers’ keeper prospects. However, there was a wrinkle added to than plan recently when Stolarz was injured in an AHL game, suffering a serious knee injury that required surgery. Now, Stolarz is expected to be sidelined all summer and likely not ready for game action into next season. What that means for the Flyers is, if they stay the course and protect Stolarz, an expansion selection of Neuvirth leaves the Flyers with no goalies to start the 2017-18 campaign.

Is that threat enough for them to potentially lose a top-end young goalie? It might be. The Flyers already have about $60MM committed to just 16 players for their cap payroll next season, and while many of their reinforcements will come from the minor leagues, you can expect GM Ron Hextall to be on the lookout for some veteran assistance as well. That very well may include a goalie, even if they do retain Neuvirth and Stolarz. However, the Flyers may not have the cap flexibility to deal with a potential loss of Neuvirth on top of a Stolarz injury. Such a predicament may force Philly to look at top-end free agents like Ben Bishop or Ryan Miller or may cause them to have to add two mid-level options like Brian Elliott, Jonathan Bernier, or Darcy Kuemper or even a return to Mason. Either of those strategies would severely limit the team’s ability to add anyone else in free agency.

So that’s the situation: will the Flyers’ protect the future (Stolarz) at the possible expense of the present? Or will they play it safe (Neuvirth) and almost surely lose a talented young goalie? McPhee and the Knights would love to have Stolarz, but they may have their eye on Neuvirth as well. Either way, it’s your move Hextall.

Injury Updates: Fowler, Stolarz, Borowiecki, Bartley

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Although Ducks defenseman Cam Fowler won’t play tonight in Game Two of their first round series against Calgary, head coach Randy Carlyle suggested to Eric Stephens of the Orange County Register that Fowler could be ready to return by the end of the round.  The blueliner was evaluated again on Thursday and the team is hopeful that he’ll be able to start skating again in the coming days.

Fowler has been out since April 4th when he took a knee-on-knee hit from Flames defender Mark Giordano.  At the time, there was a wide timeframe for a potential return, ranging from two to six weeks.  We’re not even at the two week mark so presumably he’s still a little while away and wouldn’t have a shot at getting back in until closer to the end of the series.

Other injury notes from around the league:

  • Flyers goalie prospect Anthony Stolarz will miss the entire AHL playoffs and will be sidelined for the next three to four months, head coach Scott Gordon told Sam Carchidi of the Philadelphia Inquirer. While the exact nature of the injury was undisclosed, Carchidi notes that the netminder was seen on crutches following Wednesday’s game.  Stolarz is likely to get a long look at training camp to be the backup goaltender for Michal Neuvirth next season assuming that Philadelphia doesn’t bring anyone else in via free agency or the trade market this summer.  He is expected to be fully recovered in time for camp.
  • Senators defenseman Mark Borowiecki suffered a lower body injury this afternoon, the team announced via Twitter. He did not return to the game.  The injury was sustained on an attempted body check on Bruins forward Riley Nash.  If he’s unable to return in time for their next game on Monday, Frederik Claesson will likely take his place in the lineup.  Claesson was scratched when Marc Methot was deemed ready to play today.
  • The Wild announced that they have activated defenseman Victor Bartley off injured reserve. Bartley signed with Minnesota as a free agent this summer but suffered a triceps injury in the preseason that kept him out for the entire year.  While it’s unlikely that Bartley would immediately step into Minnesota’s lineup, he will at least give them another option to turn to if they do decide to make a change later on.  The Wild’s AHL affiliate in Iowa wraps up their season tonight and won’t be in the playoffs which eliminates the possibility of a conditioning stint.

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