Crafting A Hypothetical Erik Karlsson Trade To Penguins
Earlier today, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reported that some “clarity” is expected on the Erik Karlsson trade speculation by this upcoming weekend. It will end just over two months of heavy trade speculation, and all signs point to Karlsson heading East to join the Pittsburgh Penguins.
In other news from Pittsburgh this morning, even though it is never a positive for a player to get injured, strictly speaking financially, the Penguins will open up $6MM in cap space due to forward Jake Guentzel‘s ankle surgery, landing him on LTIR to begin the regular season. Once Guentzel is put on LTIR at the beginning of the season, Pittsburgh will have just under $2.8MM in salary cap wiggle room.
Now, with any hypothetical Karlsson trade, a significant hurdle to jump will be how much the San Josh Sharks are willing to retain on his contract. It’s been reported multiple times that the Sharks seem willing to retain 30% of his contract, which would knock Karlsson’s salary down to $8MM over the next four seasons. Keeping this in mind, the Penguins would only need to send around $5.25MM back to the Sharks, if and only if they are not seeking any additional cap space.
The most obvious choice would be to move Jeff Petry‘s $6.25MM contract back the other way to San Jose, but with a 15-team no-trade list included in his contract, it would be reasonable to assume the Sharks would be on that list, and the likelihood of Petry accepting a deal to San Jose would be slim. In fact, most of the contracts that the Penguins would want to remove from their roster, have very hefty no-movement clauses, complicating any potential trade in the near future.
However, there is one player who would meet the criteria and was even rumored to be headed toward a buyout in mid-June. That player would be Mikael Granlund, acquired from the Nashville Predators at last year’s trade deadline, and currently sporting a $5MM salary for the next two seasons. Throw in defenseman Jan Rutta and his $2.75MM, also creating an opening on the right-hand side of their blue line, and all of the salary intangibles are worked out.
In terms of which prospects and draft capital should be expected to head back to San Jose, let’s consider General Manager Mike Grier‘s first high-profile trade, moving Timo Meier to the New Jersey Devils at last season’s trade deadline. In that deal, the Sharks acquired a salary filler in Andreas Johnsson, a young NHL-ready talent in Fabian Zetterlund, two prospects in Nikita Okhotyuk and Shakir Mukhamadullin, as well as a first and second-round pick.
Given this context, it would be reasonable to assume that Karlsson will command a similar package to Meier, and the Penguins should have the necessary parts to make this happen. The salary fillers are already worked out in Granlund and Rutta, and defenseman Ty Smith seems exactly the type of young NHL-ready talent the Sharks would be pursuing in a package like this. Not too long ago, Smith was projected as one of the better prospects in New Jersey’s system, but ever since coming over in a trade to Pittsburgh, the Penguins just have not been able to give him the amount of ice time that is conducive with his growth.
For prospects, it is going to be very difficult for San Jose to poach away any of Brayden Yager, Owen Pickering, or Joel Blomqvist from the Penguins farm system, but there is another talent that should suffice. Forward Tristan Broz as well as forward Valtteri Puustinen seem like the best choices outside of those top three. Broz is a second-round pick of the Penguins from the 2021 NHL Draft, and he recently wrapped up a 28-point campaign with the University of Denver in the NCAA. Puustinen, on the other hand, is a bit closer to NHL-ready than Broz, scoring 59 points in 72 games in the AHL as a 24-year-old.
Pittsburgh is also in possession of most of its draft picks for the next several seasons, and given the Sharks’ projected draft capital for the foreseeable future, might target top picks during the 2025 or 2026 NHL Draft. In all realism, the Sharks will likely want Pittsburgh’s 2025 first-round pick, as well as a conditional second-round pick in 2026, crafting those conditions in a way where the pick could be upgraded to a first.
And there you have it. The hypothetical trade in its entirety would be the Penguins acquiring Karlsson (30% retained), while the Sharks would acquire, Granlund, Rutta, Smith, Broz, Puustinen, a first-round pick in 2025, as well as a conditional second-round pick in 2026. In any manner, we should know in a few short days what the Karlsson trade package will look like in its entirety.
“Clarity” On Erik Karlsson Trade Could Come This Weekend
The Pittsburgh Penguins could finally be inching closer to landing defenseman Erik Karlsson with a second buyout window opening for the team this weekend. The pursuit of Karlsson by the Penguins, Carolina Hurricanes and others has been a dominant storyline for the past two months, and now there’s a sense that some clarity might be on the horizon, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said on NHL Network yesterday.
Now armed with some additional salary cap flexibility thanks to Jake Guentzel‘s ankle injury that should place him on LTIR for the first month of the season, the Penguins have more dice to roll in regard to a Karlsson deal. The team could also free up more space through that second buyout window, using one on someone like Mikael Granlund, who’s locked in at a $5MM AAV for two more seasons. It would be a change in pace for GM Kyle Dubas, though, who’s expressed publically he’s hesitant to go the buyout route. As GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs, he offloaded a first-round pick for the Carolina Hurricanes to take and buy out the final season of Patrick Marleau‘s contract in 2019.
That being said, there aren’t a whole lot of other options for the Penguins to free up enough space to make a deal unless the Sharks are willing to take on a bad contract or two in return. The latter is unlikely, given they’re undoubtedly going to retain more salary than they’re comfortable with to facilitate a Karlsson trade. With Friedman hearing there’s increased activity this week on the Penguins/Karlsson train, it’s not hard to connect the dots on Dubas’ potential cap-clearing plans.
While the list of teams connected to Karlsson is largely public knowledge at this point, what a potential deal could look like isn’t. It’s been reported multiple times that San Jose will likely have to retain at least $3.5MM of Karlsson’s $11MM cap hit for four more seasons to move him out, but other than that, it’s anyone’s guess as to what amount of roster players, picks, and prospects it’ll take to win a bidding war for last year’s Norris Trophy winner.
Speculatively, one player who could head to San Jose is 23-year-old defenseman Ty Smith. The 2018 17th-overall pick burst onto the scene with 23 points in just 48 games during his rookie season with the New Jersey Devils in 2020-21, but he struggled heavily on the defensive end of things the following season and was traded to Pittsburgh in 2022. He spent most of last season in the minors, only skating nine games with the Penguins, but he’ll need waivers to return there next season if he can’t find a spot in the NHL lineup. On a team with paper-thin defensive depth such as San Jose, he’d likely immediately factor in as a top-four threat.
It’s worth noting that Pittsburgh also has all six of their first- and second-round picks in the next three drafts.
Jake Guentzel Out Three Months After Ankle Surgery
Pittsburgh Penguins winger Jake Guentzel underwent successful surgery on Wednesday to repair a lingering right ankle issue, general manager Kyle Dubas said in a statement today. The 2017 Stanley Cup champion will be re-evaluated in 12 weeks, meaning he’ll miss around the first month of the 2023-24 season.
Guentzel underwent his surgery in Minnesota, where he’d been playing summer-league hockey up until the procedure. Dubas said as Guentzel was ramping up preparation for training camp, “it was apparent that his ankle injury was not resolving in a way that was satisfactory to [him] or the Penguins.”
Financially, this is quite an important move for Pittsburgh. Guentzel’s timetable for a return means his $6MM cap hit is a candidate for LTIR to start the season, which would give the Penguins some more offseason cap flexibility as they try and position themselves to acquire top-flight defender Erik Karlsson from the San Jose Sharks.
Regardless of any potential ulterior motives at play, Guentzel is a two-time 40-goal scorer whose presence is invaluable for a team likely to be stuck in a tight Eastern Conference playoff race. Pittsburgh surely has no plans of missing the playoffs for a second straight year, and they’ll need Guentzel’s best after he returns from injury to stay ahead. In the meantime, they’ll rely on veteran addition Reilly Smith, a member of last year’s Stanley Cup-winning team with the Vegas Golden Knights, to shoulder some of Guentzel’s load. He’s the most likely candidate to slide up to first-line duties alongside Sidney Crosby and one of Rickard Rakell or Bryan Rust.
Guentzel has become synonymous with first-line duties on the Penguins throughout his seven-year career there, stapled to Crosby’s wing for much of his NHL time. He’s averaged over 20 minutes per game over the past four seasons, routinely producing around a point-per-game clip since breaking out for 40 goals and 76 points in 2018-19.
Unfortunately, this isn’t the first time Guentzel will miss a significant chunk of a season for injury-related reasons. He missed the last 30 games of the 2019-20 campaign thanks to a shoulder injury.
Notably, Guentzel’s injury guarantees them cap compliance to start the season, even if a Karlsson trade doesn’t pan out. The Penguins were more than $3MM over the cap after signing Drew O’Connor earlier this week, even if it was a slightly inflated figure thanks to three goalies currently on their NHL roster. Now, with Guentzel projected to land on LTIR to start the season, CapFriendly projects Pittsburgh to have roughly $2.75MM in space.
Pittsburgh Penguins Remove Interim GM Tag From Kyle Dubas
The Pittsburgh Penguins announced Thursday that they’ve removed the interim tag from Kyle Dubas‘ role as general manager, signifying they’ll continue with him serving as GM and president of hockey operations for the foreseeable future.
Pittsburgh also announced four other promotions, naming Andy Saucier their director of professional personnel, Erik Heasley their director of minor league and amateur scouting operations, and confirming the promotions of Amanda Kessel and Trevor Daley as special assistants to Dubas.
“At this time, I feel it is best for continuity that I formally continue in both roles as President and General Manager in the hockey operations department,” Dubas said, justifying removing the interim tag from his role. Pittsburgh brought Dubas in solely as the president of hockey operations when they hired him in June and initially aimed to name a separate general manager to work under Dubas later this summer. Dubas left the door open in his statement today on bringing a different general manager in down the line, but no such move will be made before next summer.
Saucier’s promotion is well-deserved, to say the least. He’s been in the Penguins organization for more than a decade, initially joining the AHL’s Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins as a video coach in 2010. After two seasons in the minors, he was promoted to Pittsburgh to serve in the same role, which he held until 2022. Last offseason, Pittsburgh promoted Saucier to hockey operations analyst. He’s now been promoted yet again to a new role under Dubas, which did not previously exist in the organization.
Heasley has also spent the entirety of his management career in the Penguins organization and had served as the GM of Wilkes-Barre/Scranton for parts of the last three seasons. Now, he’ll oversee the entire scouting department as it relates to AHL, ECHL, and junior-league talents.
Daley had spent the past three seasons in a senior advisor role for Pittsburgh, but he and Kessel (whose promotion was previously reported) will now work directly with Dubas in roles similar to what Jason Spezza had previously held when the two worked together last season with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Previewing The Top 2024 Unrestricted Free Agents
This year’s free agent class was underwhelming. There’s no disrespect intended here to players like Alex Killorn, Dmitry Orlov and Vladimir Tarasenko. However, we’ve grown accustomed to at least one true star being available on the market every year – at least a top-ten player at their position. But a flurry of extensions took some potential game-breakers, such as Boston Bruins sniper David Pastrnak off the market, limiting the amount of star power available.
With the salary cap finally expected to jump significantly by about $4MM next offseason, some NHL general managers will undoubtedly look to spend that extra cash on a shiny new toy on the UFA market. As 2023 is mainly in the rearview mirror, let’s take a look at some of the best players slated to hit the open market next summer, whether or not they may extend, and offer some way-too-early contract projections in the process:
F Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs) – The unquestionable crown jewel of the 2024 free agent class might also be one of the least likely to hit the market. Matthews is more than just a superstar – he’s a season removed from back-to-back Rocket Richard Trophies, he’s led the league in even-strength goals in four out of his seven NHL seasons, and he’s coming off a “down season” in which he still managed 40 goals despite a career-low 12.2 shooting percentage. Toronto is still plugging away at an extension with Matthews, a process that was surely elongated by a change at the GM position earlier this offseason. While multiple reports suggested it likely won’t be a long-term deal to keep Matthews in Toronto, seeing his name available for anyone to pursue next July would be shocking.
Extension Likelihood: Very Likely
Projected Contract: Five years, $62MM ($12.4MM AAV)
F William Nylander (Toronto Maple Leafs) – Another star in Canada’s largest city is also headed for the open market next season. Nylander is coming off a strong season with a career-high 40 goals and 87 points, but multiple reports indicate contract talks are currently at an impasse between the two sides. The Swedish winger reportedly wants an eight-figure cap hit on his next deal, one he’s increasingly unlikely to receive after sub-$10MM extensions for players like the Carolina Hurricanes’ Sebastian Aho. He will be in his prime at 28 years old next summer, though, and he currently holds the undisputed title of the best pure winger slated to hit the market. Given the slated cap increase, Nylander may be able to garner the money he desires elsewhere if Toronto isn’t willing to fork over another eight-figure deal.
Extension Likelihood: Somewhat Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $70MM ($10MM AAV)
F Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay Lightning) – Including Stamkos on this list seems like more of a formality than anything else. The captain of back-to-back Stanley Cup championship teams in Tampa and likely to go down as the greatest player in franchise history when he retires, it’s nearly impossible to imagine him wearing another jersey. Barring an unforeseen breakdown in communication, Stamkos will be re-upping with the Bolts on what could potentially be the final contract of his NHL career as he enters his mid-30s. After yet another point-per-game season, Stamkos will undoubtedly be sticking around in Tampa as long as they’ll have him, likely at a slight discount to help them replenish their depth reserves.
Extension Likelihood: Very Likely
Projected Contract: Four years, $31.5MM ($7.875MM AAV)
F Jake Guentzel (Pittsburgh Penguins) – The Penguins have exhibited a strong tendency toward keeping the band together in recent seasons, but it’s a trend that may change under the front-office leadership of Kyle Dubas. Still, it’s hard to imagine the Penguins won’t field a competitive offer to keep Guentzel in the fold. He’s been one of the most successful and consistent linemates to Sidney Crosby in the entire illustrious career of the future Hall-of-Famer, he’s a two-time 40-goal scorer, and he’s an incredibly clutch playoff performer. While contract extension talks haven’t begun between the two parties yet, reporting indicates the Penguins’ core shares the public’s view of Guentzel and would like to keep him around.
Extension Likelihood: Likely
Projected Contract: Eight years, $75MM ($9.375MM AAV)
F Mark Scheifele (Winnipeg Jets) – The first of two Jets on this list hasn’t been in trade rumors quite as much as his netminding counterpart, but there’s still a very good chance Scheifele is sporting a different jersey by the 2024 trade deadline. Speculation has immediately run rampant about Scheifele as a stop-gap fix down the middle for the Boston Bruins, who are without their number-one center after captain Patrice Bergeron announced his retirement last week. There are plenty of question marks about how highly Scheifele is actually valued around the league, given his significant defensive lapses, but he’s consistently produced the offense you’d want out of a number-one center. Despite scoring a career-high 42 goals last season, 2022-23 was actually Scheifele’s first campaign falling short of a point per game since 2015-16, when he was just 22 years old.
Extension Likelihood: Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $66MM ($9.4MM AAV)
D Devon Toews (Colorado Avalanche) – Toews may be the most unheralded defenseman in the league thanks to his partner, Cale Makar. On almost any other team, Toews would be a legitimate number-one defender with very few holes in his game. Little has been made of his impending free agency, but he’ll be due a major raise on his current bargain-bin $4.1MM cap hit. Combined with the potential loss of captain Gabriel Landeskog‘s LTIR relief should he return to play in 2024-25, it could be incredibly difficult for Colorado to retain him even with the cap going up. Not only does Toews consistently rank among having some of the best defensive impacts in the league, but he’s also coming off back-to-back 50-point campaigns and has finished top-15 in Norris voting during each of his three seasons in Colorado.
Extension Likelihood: 50/50
Projected Contract: Seven years, $61MM ($8.7MM AAV)
D Brandon Montour (Florida Panthers) – A pair of prominent Panthers defenders are up for UFA status next season in Montour and Gustav Forsling, but Montour’s the one we’ll cover more in-depth here after he led the Panthers’ defense in playoff scoring with eight goals and 13 points in 21 games despite playing through a shoulder injury which will cost him the beginning of the 2023-24 campaign. His stock has never been higher after exploding for 73 points in 80 regular season games, along with a career-high 107 penalty minutes. While he’s still a rather one-dimensional player and likely to be somewhat of a liability defensively, he’s finally shown legitimate top-pair ability at 29 years old. Committing any term to Montour as a UFA may be a case of buyer beware, however, as his track record is far from consistent.
Extension Likelihood: Somewhat Unlikely
Projected Contract: Four years, $26MM ($6.5MM AAV)
G Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg Jets) – It seemed very unlikely a few months ago that Hellebuyck would be on this list today. While there’s no chance he’ll be signing an extension with the Jets, a trade followed by an extension with a new team seemed rather likely this offseason. However, some outlandish financial demands from Hellebuyck’s camp dried up trade interest, and there hasn’t been a lot of movement on that front lately. While small, the possibility that Hellebuyck lands on the open market next season seems to be increasing without a trade or extension any closer to fruition.
Extension Likelihood: Very Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $61.25MM ($8.75MM AAV)
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Pittsburgh Penguins Re-Sign Drew O’Connor, Avoid Arbitration
The Pittsburgh Penguins have re-signed winger Drew O’Connor to a two-year deal worth $925K per season, according to a team announcement Wednesday morning.
O’Connor was Pittsburgh’s last unsigned RFA and one of two unsettled arbitration cases remaining league-wide. Anaheim Ducks winger Troy Terry, whose hearing is scheduled for today, is now the only unsettled case. Pittsburgh and O’Connor were headed for a hearing on Friday, August 4, the last day on this year’s arbitration calendar.
The 25-year-old forward continues working toward a full-time NHL role, which the team hopes he can achieve in 2023-24. Many expected O’Connor to lock down an everyday role in the team’s bottom six last season, and while he did skate in a career-high 46 games with Pittsburgh, he didn’t avoid AHL assignment either. O’Connor started last season in the minors, recording 22 points in 20 games with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins before he was permanently called up to Pittsburgh in December 2022.
Those scoring totals in WBS are closely aligned with what he posted the previous two seasons, meaning he clearly has nothing left to prove in the minors after scoring at around a point-per-game clip for three years. His five goals and 11 points in 46 games in Pittsburgh last season seem more impressive when you consider he was playing just 9:49 per game.
O’Connor also had quite a strong end to the 2022-23 season, doing well with the United States at the 2023 IIHF World Championship in Finland and Latvia. He was among the team’s best offensive players, ranking fourth with eight points in ten games.
Since signing in Pittsburgh as an undrafted free agent out of Dartmouth College at the end of the 2019-20 season, O’Connor’s posted eight goals, nine assists and 17 points in 78 games with the Pens. They’re totals he’ll undoubtedly build significantly on next season, with him currently penciled in on the team’s fourth line.
While Pittsburgh may have their last necessary signing done, their offseason is far from over. Per CapFriendly, the team currently sits roughly $3.2MM over the $83.5MM salary cap Upper Limit after signing O’Connor. However, their roster projection at the time of writing includes 13 forwards, eight defensemen and three goalies – putting them one player over the maximum 23-player roster. Some of that cap overrun will be cleared by assigning one of Casey DeSmith or Alex Nedeljkovic to the minors, depending on who wins the backup spot to starting goalie Tristan Jarry out of training camp.
This won’t fix everything, though, as neither of their cap hits ($1.8MM and $1.5MM, respectively) are fully buriable in the minors. That means they’ll still carry some cap penalty if they’re not on the active roster. Given the maximum buriable threshold next season is $1.15MM, this would mean Nedeljkovic would still carry a $350K cap hit if assigned to the AHL, while DeSmith would carry a $650K cap hit.
Don’t forget the Penguins remain deep in trade rumors to acquire San Jose Sharks defenseman Erik Karlsson, who’s fresh off a Norris Trophy-winning season and a 100-point campaign. While getting O’Connor locked into a six-figure contract for two years is a nice bit of work for interim general manager Kyle Dubas, the team is far from having their ducks in a row ahead of next season.
Some cap relief could come soon, though. Settling with O’Connor has opened up a second buyout window for Pittsburgh, which opens in three days and will last for 48 hours. As a reminder, post-arbitration settlement buyouts are subject to strict regulations: the player must have been on the team’s reserve list at the time of the 2023 trade deadline, and they must have a cap hit of at least $4MM. Two potential targets for Pittsburgh are forward Mikael Granlund and defenseman Jeff Petry, who are both locked in through the next two seasons at rather extravagant cap hits of $5MM and $6.25MM, respectively.
Signing O’Connor to a two-year deal buys up his remaining RFA years and walks him directly to unrestricted free agency in 2025, as CapFriendly notes.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Dmitri Samorukov Signs AHL Contract In Penguins Organization
The AHL’s Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins have signed former Edmonton Oilers and St. Louis Blues defenseman Dmitri Samorukov to a contract for the 2023-24 season, per a team announcement today. The move does make him a member of the Pittsburgh Penguins organization on contract with their AHL affiliate. However, without an NHL contract, any NHL team can still place offers for (and sign) Samorukov.
A 2017 third-round selection of the Oilers, Samorukov was once viewed as one of their organization’s more intriguing defensive prospects. After a 2021-22 season in which he only appeared in one NHL contest for the Oilers, however, they dealt him to the St. Louis Blues in exchange for young forward Klim Kostin, a swap of young prospects who both needed fresh starts on new teams.
While Kostin panned out into a solid depth forward for Edmonton last year, the same can’t be said for Samorukov, who spent most of the season in the minors again. St. Louis only iced the 24-year-old in two games, in which he was held off the scoresheet and averaged 14:53 of ice time. He did, however, post a career-high four goals and 20 points in 69 games with the AHL’s Springfield Thunderbirds, with whom he played a top-four role.
Samorukov is only the second defender Wilkes-Barre/Scranton has under AHL contract. However, he’ll now need to compete with a bevy of Penguins prospects who will be given priority for ice time and development purposes. While he should still be an everyday player at the AHL level, he likely won’t receive as much opportunity as he did last season in Springfield while under contract with the Blues.
Penguins Promote Amanda Kessel
- Pittsburgh Penguins president of hockey operations Kyle Dubas is no stranger to working with elite women’s hockey players, such as Hall of Famer Hayley Wickenheiser who worked as senior director of player development with the Toronto Maple Leafs during Dubas’ tenure there. Now, Dubas is adding another top name to his staff in Pittsburgh. Amanda Kessel, an Olympic gold medalist and the sister of former Penguins star Phil Kessel has reportedly been promoted to a role titled “special assistant to president of hockey operations and general manager” according to Seth Rorabaugh of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Although it’s unclear what her exact responsibilities will be this reported promotion means Kessel will have a hand in shaping the Penguins’ future as they chase one last Stanley Cup with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang.
Update On Erik Karlsson To Pittsburgh Rumblings
Rob Rossi of The Athletic wrote a column today with regard to the Erik Karlsson trade saga. While many of the updates offered were hardly surprising, there were a few pieces of information that gave some insights into how the Pittsburgh Penguins became involved in the trade talks. Pittsburgh always seemed like a team that couldn’t squeeze a player with Karlsson’s cap number into their lineup, but based on the recent reporting it appears that they are the front-runner.
Rossi begins the article by dropping the news that Kyle Dubas reportedly identified Erik Karlsson as a trade target while he was in the interview process with Penguins ownership. Now, aside from the Tristan Jarry extension to this point much of Dubas’ work has been to tinker around the edges of the Penguins lineup. But it does appear that he’s built up the club’s depth in the bottom six and their defense core for the possibility that some players could be shipped out very soon.
Another newer piece of information that Rossi mentions is that Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang have reportedly endorsed the potential Karlsson acquisition and in Letang’s case, he’s even agreed to make changes to his own role within the Penguins lineup. If a potential trade were to go through, Letang would remain as Pittsburgh’s number one defenseman, however, Letang would change his powerplay role to allow Karlsson to quarterback the Penguin’s powerplay.
San Jose was also reportedly interested in defenseman Marcus Pettersson being part of a potential blockbuster, however, Dubas has squashed that notion thus far as head coach Mike Sullivan sees Pettersson and newly acquired defender Ryan Graves as the top two options for the left side of Pittsburgh’s defensive group. Pettersson was terrific for Pittsburgh last season after seeing his name all over trade rumors boards for much of the summer of 2022.
Lastly, Dubas apparently wants to put top-5 protection on any first-round pick he trades in a Karlsson deal and has reportedly floated the idea of putting other conditions such as home-ice advantage on lower-round draft picks that could be involved in the deal.
While it appears that the Penguins are still the front-runner to land the reigning Norris Trophy winner, it doesn’t appear that a trade is imminent anytime soon. Pittsburgh would have to navigate an awful lot of moving parts to push the trade through, however, as we’ve seen in the past these trades can come together quickly when teams are motivated to make the move happen. Regardless of the outcome, it does look like Dubas has plans to continue his makeover of the Penguins roster before the start of the 2023-24 season.
Penguins Notes: Karlsson, Guentzel, O’Connor
Josh Yohe of The Athletic writes that all is quiet on the Erik Karlsson trade talks, but the Pittsburgh Penguins remain very interested in the reigning Norris Trophy winner. Yohe doesn’t know whether a deal will materialize quickly or if it could drag out all summer, but Mark Madden has one theory on the matter that Tim Benz writes about in the Pittsburgh Tribute-Review. Madden says that his sources have told him that the San Jose Sharks have the Penguins and the Carolina Hurricanes’ best offers and everyone is in a holding pattern to see if the Sharks will crack and take one of the deals.
Kyle Dubas and the Penguins would clearly love to complete a deal, but they do have a reasonably good top-4 defensive group should they miss out on landing Karlsson. While trading for Karlsson would dramatically improve the Penguins offense, they do have a good fallback option should he end up elsewhere. At the moment, Pittsburgh has Jeff Petry penciled in on the right side of their second pairing, and while he didn’t play up to his $6.25MM cap hit last year, his pairing with Marcus Pettersson was quite good.
In other Penguins notes:
- Yohe writes in The Athletic that the Penguins and pending unrestricted free agent forward Jake Guentzel have had no talks on a contract extension for the two-time 40-goal scorer. Yohe doesn’t find this surprising given that acting Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas has been busy taking care of other business and adds that he and Guentzel’s agent have a good working relationship. Yohe’s sense is that the Penguins’ veteran players want Guentzel in the fold long-term, and he figures that the two sides will come to an agreement on an extension in the not-too-distant future. Guentzel has scored 76 goals in the past two seasons and has been the most productive winger that Sidney Crosby has played with, however, he is small in stature and will be 30 years old by the time his next contract kicks in. He will also be looking to cash in on what is likely to be the last lucrative long-term deal he will sign.
- Dan Kingerski of Pittsburgh Hockey Now wonders if the outcome of restricted free agent Drew O’Connor’s contract negotiations is tied to the Penguins’ desire to facilitate a trade for a defenseman. O’Connor filed for arbitration a few weeks ago meaning that once his case is settled or he re-signs it will open a second buyout window for the Penguins. Pittsburgh currently sits over the salary cap even with O’Connor unsigned but could buyout one of their undesirable contracts to create space once O’Connor puts pen to paper. The 25-year-old isn’t expected to demand much of a cap hit as he posted just five goals and six assists in 46 games last season and spent a good chunk of the year in the AHL, however, the days after he signs his next deal could send shockwaves through the NHL.