Salary Cap Deep Dive: Ottawa Senators
Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Ottawa Senators
Current Cap Hit: $70,187,500 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
D Thomas Chabot (Three years remaining, $863K)
F Colin White (Two years remaining, $925K)
White signed with the Sens late last season and burned the first year of his ELC in the process although he got into just three games between the regular season and playoffs. As the lone waiver exempt forward on the roster though, he could be a candidate to move back and forth between the NHL and AHL.
Chabot was one of the top junior defencemen in all of the CHL in 2016-17 and many expect him to make the jump to full-time NHL duty, bypassing the AHL altogether. A top-four spot right away would be a tough ask but he should play his way into more minutes as the season progresses.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
G Craig Anderson ($4.2MM, UFA)
D Mark Borowiecki ($1.1MM, UFA)
D Cody Ceci ($2.8MM, RFA)
D Fredrik Claesson ($650K, RFA)
G Andrew Hammond ($1.35MM, UFA)
D Johnny Oduya ($1MM, UFA)
F Mark Stone ($3.5MM, RFA)
F Kyle Turris ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Chris Wideman ($800K, UFA)
Potential Bonuses
Chabot: $360K
Oduya: $1.25MM
White: $360K
Total: $1.97MM
Ottawa may only have two forwards with expiring deals but both are significant. Turris has established himself as a number one center and with that position constantly being in high demand, he is going to command a significant raise in order to forego testing free agency. If he does make it to the open market, the soon-to-be 28-year-old could come close to doubling his current cap hit. Stone has vaulted from a late-round afterthought in the draft into a legitimate top line winger. His next contract will take him to UFA status one way or the other as he will only be a year away from UFA eligibility next summer. Accordingly, GM Pierre Dorion will likely be looking to sign him long-term which will also require a considerable pay increase.
On the back end, Ceci is easily the most prominent of the group that will need to be addressed. While his offensive game hasn’t progressed quite as they had hoped, he has shown himself to be capable of playing big minutes so he will still be in line for a big raise. If Chabot is ready for a big role quickly though, Ceci could be a candidate to be dealt if they need to free up some budget space to keep their forward group intact. Oduya has a good chance to hit at least some of his bonuses (set in five $250K increments depending on ice time, games played, and making the playoffs) so his final cost should come in above his cap hit as well. Borowiecki, Wideman, and Claesson will all battle for playing time at the back of the lineup and their next deals (or ones for replacements) shouldn’t be considerably higher than they are now.
Between the pipes, Anderson is set to enter his walk year, one that he certainly hopes will be a lot more stable after what his wife went through last season. The free agent market for goaltenders next summer doesn’t have a lot of prominent talent so a strong season from Anderson could help him stand out. However, he’ll also be 37 next summer which could cool his market, something that would be to the benefit of the Sens. Hammond had a year to forget as he lost the backup job and then needed surgery to replace a torn labrum in February, ending his season early. He’s expected to make it through waivers but will still carry a cap charge of $325K at the minor league level.
Expiring NCAA Draft Rights
Will Butcher and Alex Kerfoot have graced many headlines over the last few months, as players who will be heading to free agency next week when their exclusive draft rights expire. Since they finished their senior years without an NHL entry-level contract, they can test the market on August 16th and sign wherever they want.
They’re not the only two, and CapFriendly provides us with a full list of players whose rights will expire next week. Several of the names listed have already signed minor league contracts with various organizations for next year, and will be excluded from the list below. The remaining players are as follows:
Sam Kurker – St. Louis Blues (2nd round, 2012)
Taylor Cammarata – New York Islanders (3rd round, 2013)
Chris Calnan – Chicago Blackhawks (3rd round, 2013)
Rhett Holland – Arizona Coyotes (4th round, 2012)
Zach Nagelvoort – Edmonton Oilers (4th round, 2014)
Will Butcher – Colorado Avalanche (5th round, 2013)
Doyle Somerby – New York Islanders (5th round, 2012)
Dominic Toninato – Toronto Maple Leafs (5th round, 2012)
Evan Campbell – Edmonton Oilers (5th round, 2013)
Connor Clifton – Arizona Coyotes (5th round, 2013)
Teemu Kivihalme – Nashville Predators (5th round, 2013)*
Grant Besse – Anaheim Ducks (5th round, 2013)
Alex Kerfoot – New Jersey Devils (5th round, 2012)
Ben Storm – Colorado Avalanche (6th round, 2013)
Tim Harrison – Calgary Flames (6th round, 2013)
Collin Olson – Carolina Hurricanes (6th round, 2012)
Chris Leblanc – Ottawa Senators (6th round, 2013)
Clifford Watson – San Jose Sharks (6th round, 2012)
James De Haas – Detroit Red Wings (6th round, 2012)
Blaine Byron – Pittsburgh Penguins (6th round, 2013)
Wade Murphy – Nashville Predators (7th round, 2013)
Brendan Collier – Carolina Hurricanes (7th round, 2012)
Jedd Soleway – Arizona Coyotes (7th round, 2013)
Nolan De Jong – Minnesota Wild (7th round, 2013)
*Has signed with Karpat of the Finnish Liiga.
Many of these players spent time in the minor leagues this past spring on amateur tryout contracts, but will become free agents if not signed by end of day on August 15th. That gives teams time to still get them into their system, but in cases like Toninato there may just not be enough room to fit him in on an entry-level contract. Even those on minor league deals will be free agents at the end of their contract, as those do not protect exclusive draft rights.
Summer Predictions: Atlantic Division
The hockey world is at a standstill now that August has rolled around. With all of the arbitration cases now decided and just a few restricted free agents left to sign, players and fans alike are counting the days until training camp starts. While there are still several names in free agency that could still help an NHL club, it seems like many are destined either for professional tryouts or late-summer deals after injuries strike.
So now we’ll get into our summer predictions. Before the start of the year we’ll be releasing a full season preview with projections for each club and the expected playoff teams, but first we’ll ask you to give us your take on how you believe each division will end up. Yesterday we looked at the Metropolitan division, a poll that was handily won by the Pittsburgh Penguins despite them not coming first in the Metro since 2013-14 season. The back-to-back Stanley Cup champs are being chosen by many to three-peat, even after saying goodbye to some former playoff stars like Chris Kunitz and Nick Bonino.
Today, we’ll move to the other Eastern Conference division and take a look at the Atlantic. Choose who you think will win the division this season, and make sure to leave your full prediction for the division standings in the comments. As a proxy for the overall standings, we’ll be sure to publish these results alongside our own PHR rankings in September.
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Senators Passed Up Chance To Unload Ryan
One of the few players who was heavily anticipated to become a Vegas Golden Knight did not – Bobby Ryan. Despite an above-average playoff performance in the Senators’ heartbreaking Conference Final run, Ryan has vastly under-performed relative to his contract. Instead of coordinating a deal to unload that contract to Vegas, they instead lost Marc Methot, perhaps the second best defenseman on the team in that Cinderella story. Methot’s contract was not perfect, to be sure, but Ryan’s deal still looms large over the team for years.
It should be noted that Ryan has been a consistent 50+ point producer prior to this season, where he tallied only 25 through 62 contests. He’s been on pace for over 50 every year since he was a rookie. That said, his fall from grace in 2016-17was concerning and dramatic. His puck control seriously declined, his decision making faltered, and his production took a nosedive. With only 12 goals, and coming off a hot post-season, the time was ripe for GM Pierre Dorion to take advantage of Vegas’ unique situation and rid himself of a bad contract. Earning $7.25 MM AAV for the next five seasons, Ryan is the 36th highest paid forward in the league, and second-highest on the payroll behind Erik Karlsson.
For those who believe such an arrangement could not have been worked out, merely look at some of the contracts Vegas did take on. The essentially retired David Clarkson‘s $5.25 MM for the next 3 seasons was shipped out at the price of a first and a 2020 second. The perennially concussed Mikhail Grabovski was dealt for a similar package, which also protected some of the Islanders’ players. Vegas also didn’t shy away from taking veteran players with value – they selected James Neal (29 years old) from Nashville as well as David Perron from the Blues (29 years old). Certainly, with a little encouragement, George McPhee might have entertained the possibility of Ryan as a Knight. The price may have been steep, but Karlsson is in the prime of his career, while many players are looking for raises in the immediate future. Clearing Ryan’s albatross off the books may have gone a long way towards building toward a consistent contender.
Ultimately, Dorion decided against unloading a bloated contract in hopes that Ryan’s post-season revival was no mirage. With the UFA crop available, it’s difficult to blame the management for doubling down on the struggling winger. Five roster players will be UFA after this season, including Craig Anderson and Kyle Turris, while Mark Stone (RFA) has earned a raise. Karlsson will then be due a raise for 2019-20, as will five other forwards. The team will need to rely upon cost-effective ELC players and bargain contracts to continue holding pace with the rest of the Atlantic division. Only time will tell whether the Ryan decision was the correct one.
Early Look At Some 2017-18 Impact Rookies: Part II
Last week we took a look at some of the most interesting rookie names around the league, profiling Clayton Keller, Dylan Strome, Tyson Jost, Brock Boeser, Charlie McAvoy and Julius Honka. Each of those names have a chance at making a real impact for their respective clubs in 2017-18, and at least a few could be in the running for a Calder trophy as Rookie of the Year. Again, this series is avoiding the 2017 draftees as they’ll be profiled individually as we get closer to camp and have a better idea of who will be staying in the NHL right away.
For this part, we’ll take a look at some other young players who may not have the same draft pedigree of Strome, or early impact that Boeser, McAvoy and Honka have shown.
Josh Ho-Sang – New York Islanders
One of the most mentioned names in comments after releasing the first group of players was Ho-Sang (along with Mathew Barzal). While part one was certainly not meant to rank any of the upcoming young players, Ho-Sang’s exclusion was certainly noticeable. After making his NHL debut this season under some (silly) controversy, Ho-Sang is ready to take the next step and be a full-time contributor to the Islanders this year. Regardless of the number on his back, he showed during his 21 game stint that he can compete at the highest level and registered 10 points. No one would be shocked by a 40-point season from the young forward, and if given a full-time opportunity in New York’s top six he could push even higher than that.
Thomas Chabot – Ottawa Senators
One of the most impressive players in junior hockey last year, Chabot spent a single game with the Senators and is just about ready to take the NHL by storm. It’s hard for a defenseman to step right into a big role in the NHL, but with Erik Karlsson and Cody Ceci still around Chabot can easily be sheltered to start his career. It’s unclear where exactly he’d fit though as the team still has Chris Wideman, but if given the opportunity Chabot could provide a dynamic option on the right side. The Senators also brought in Johnny Oduya and have at least eight names that could take up six spots, so that opportunity may have to wait for an injury.
Anders Bjork – Boston Bruins
The Bruins team bus will be a rowdy place this year given how many rookies and young players could be on the roster, and Bjork isn’t one to overlook. The fifth-round pick dominated for Notre Dame as a junior before signing this spring, and looks ready to jump right into a top-six role with the NHL club. There seems to be a natural fit for him across from David Pastrnak to make a dynamic second unit for the Bruins, but how it all shakes out still isn’t clear. It’s not even set that he’ll start the year in the NHL, but after 52 points on a Fighting Irish club that relied almost solely on his production and Cal Petersen’s outstanding goaltending he sure seemed ready to take the next step.
Zach Aston-Reese – Pittsburgh Penguins
Another college name, this time of the free agent variety continues to impress in Aston-Reese. A finalist for the Hobey Baker trophy, Aston-Reese has done nothing but score since being passed over in the draft several times. The 22-year old put up 63 points in 38 games for Northeastern, before jumping right into the AHL and showing off with eight points in 10 games. He’s big enough to play in Pittsburgh’s bottom-six right away, and there is a glaring hole at center that the team still needs to address. Pittsburgh is notorious for turning college players into immediate producers, and it could be no different for the bang-and-crash two-way player in Aston-Reese. The forward depth of the Penguins could lead to big minutes with players like Phil Kessel or Patric Hornqvist, a situation no young player would pass up.
Alex DeBrincat – Chicago Blackhawks
78 goals, 165 points and the disappointment of being cut from the US World Junior team and losing the Memorial Cup should be more than enough motivation for DeBrincat coming into Blackhawks camp, who will try to crack the squad at 19 and show that his small stature doesn’t hold him back on the ice. In junior he was almost always the most skilled player in the game and has showed it by scoring more than 100 points in three straight years. There are doubts about his durability and even some about his top-end speed—though his first-step acceleration and quickness was among the best in the OHL—but it’s clear that he knows how to score. For a team desperate for cheap forward options that can play up with their top names, DeBrincat could come into a perfect scenario and compete for the rookie scoring title.
*Note: There are many other rookies that have impact potential that will be profiled throughout the summer as we approach the season. These are in no particular order or ranking.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Performance Bonuses Around The League
In the NHL, there are only a few ways you are allowed to have performance bonuses included in your contract. One way is to be on an entry-level contract, of which almost every one contains some sort of incentive. Young players can earn either Schedule A or B bonuses for various performance markers, though the really big numbers are only usually given out to the very highest of draft picks. Even Mitch Marner for instance, drafted fourth overall in 2015 can only earn up to $850K each season and doesn’t have any Schedule B bonuses in his deal.
The other contracts that can include bonuses are more rare, and they’ll be the focus of this article. These can be given out to players who sign a one-year contract after they turn 35, or a one-year deal coming off a substantial injury (the qualifications for such an injury are that they have already played at least 400 games in their career, and spent at least 100 days on injured reserve in the final year of their previous contract). Many of these have been given out, and we’ll detail them here.
Radim Vrbata – Florida Panthers 
Vrbata was given a one-year deal with the Panthers this summer after a solid season with the Arizona Coyotes, and will earn $2.5MM in guaranteed salary. He also can earn a total of $1.25MM more through performance bonuses:
- $250K for 10th goal
- $250K for 15th goal
- $250K for 20th goal
- $250K for 45th point
- $250K for making playoffs
Mark Streit – Montreal Canadiens
Streit was given a $700K contract from the Montreal Canadiens just this week to add some extra depth to a defense corps that was losing Andrei Markov. His deal includes $300K of unknown performance bonuses, that could take the total contract to $1MM.
Johnny Oduya – Ottawa Senators
Oduya earned a one-year $1MM contract from the Ottawa Senators, and while it’s not clear where he fits in exactly on the blueline he could earn much more should he find a prominent role. The deal includes $1.25MM of performance bonuses:
- $250K for 41st game played
- $250K for 65th game played
- $250K if ranked in top-5 TOI for Ottawa defensemen
- $250K if ranked in top-3 TOI for Ottawa defensemen
- $250K for making playoffs
Chris Kunitz – Tampa Bay Lightning
Kunitz is looking for his fifth Stanley Cup this season with the Lightning, who gave him a one-year $2MM contract. The former Penguin can earn another $1MM in various unknown ice-time bonuses, likely tied to where he ends up among Lightning forwards.
Patrick Sharp – Chicago Blackhawks
Sharp is returning to his old stomping ground this year after the Blackhawks signed him to a one-year $800K contract, but there is no guarantee he plays much of the season. Sharp’s been hurt by several injuries the last few seasons, and because of it Chicago included a $200K bonus for playing just ten games this year.
Mike Cammalleri – Los Angeles Kings
Cammalleri was bought out by the New Jersey Devils this spring, only to immediately find a new home with the Kings on the west coast. His $1MM contract has an additional $200K in performance bonuses, though the exact details are still unknown.
Deryk Engelland – Vegas Golden Knights
When the Golden Knights signed Engelland after the expansion draft, they were bringing back someone who knew the city and could help their young players get acclimated to their new surroundings. They signed him to a one-year deal worth $1MM, but it also includes another $1MM in unknown performance bonuses.
Thanks to CapFriendly for many of the performance bonus details.
GM Dorion Speaks On Oduya Signing
- Johnny Oduya shocked many by signing a deal so soon for $1 MM and bonuses, as Ottawa had apparently been courting him since “July 2nd”. As I reported yesterday, interest for the player never really openly surfaced among the insiders of the league. Oduya comes at great value for the Senators, and GM Pierre Dorion expressed his glee at a press conference you can find partially transcribed by Craig Megdalia here. Essentially, Dorion felt the move was absolutely necessary considering the loss of veteran Marc Methot to expansion (before being shipped to Dallas), and although he has confidence in his younger players, he couldn’t miss the opportunity to bring in “a true pro”. By the sound of it, Dorion expects coach Guy Boucher to likely place Oduya in a prominent role, which could push out a younger player such as Thomas Chabot.
[SOURCE LINK]
Dead Space: Bought-Out, Buried, And Retained Salaries For Every Team
It’s something that often goes unnoticed, but with the cap showing minimal growth the last few years, teams are starting to feel the crunch more than ever. Buyouts have become more common, especially with players with under three remaining years on their contracts. And it’s not just the big name busts that have seen the ax lately – we’ve seen lesser names at lesser money take the fall for their respective teams, then needing to scramble for work elsewhere in the league. Additionally, salary retention in trades has become a more utilized tactic as of late. Teams with “unmovable” contracts have offered to retain part of a poor contract in order to entice a team into giving them some relief.
All this said, some teams have been better with foresight than others. Some teams have shown a track record of being entirely unable of handing out poor contracts over the past five or so seasons. Considering many teams showed some progress in being more frugal this off-season, it seems a wise time to review the dead space every team has accumulated, either due to poor management decisions or poor luck.
Colorado Avalanche – $4.83 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – Francois Beauchemin buyout; Cody McLeod retained
Arizona Coyotes – $4.61 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Mike Smith retained; Mike Ribeiro, Antoine Vermette buyouts
Columbus Blue Jackets – $4.025 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Fedor Tyutin, Jared Boll, Scott Hartnell buyouts
Carolina Hurricanes – $3.71 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Eddie Lack retained; Alexander Semin, James Wisniewski buyouts
Toronto Maple Leafs – $3.28 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2021-22 – Tim Gleason, Jared Cowen buyouts; Phil Kessel retained
Nashville Predators – $2.83 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Viktor Stalberg, Eric Nystrom, Barret Jackman buyouts
Boston Bruins – $2.73 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved 2019-20 – Dennis Seidenberg, Jimmy Hayes buyouts
New York Rangers – $2.61 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2022-23 – Dan Girardi buyout
Minnesota Wild – $2.5 MM in 2017-17, issues resolved after current year – Thomas Vanek buyout
Los Angeles Kings – $2.4 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2023-24 – Matt Greene buyout; Mike Richards termination/recapture
Edmonton Oilers – $2.33 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Lauri Korpikoski, Benoit Pouliot buyouts
Anaheim Ducks – $2.21 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2023-24 – Mark Fistric, Simon Despres buyouts; Patrick Maroon retained
Vancouver Canucks – $2.13 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2021-22 – Roberto Luongo, Jannik Hansen retained; Chris Higgins buyout
New Jersey Devils – $2.09 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2023-24 – Mike Cammalleri, Devante Smith-Pelly buyouts; Ilya Kovalchuk recapture
Tampa Bay Lightning – $1.83 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2019-20 – Matt Carle buyout
Calgary Flames – $1.82 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Mason Raymond, Lance Bouma, Ryan Murphy buyouts
Detroit Red Wings – $1.67 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2020-21 – Stephen Weiss buyout
Dallas Stars – $1.5 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19- Antti Niemi buyout
Philadelphia Flyers – $1.5 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – R.J. Umberger buyout
Winnipeg Jets – $1.46 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Mark Stuart buyout
Florida Panthers – $1.33 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after 2018-19 – Jussi Jokinen buyout
Las Vegas Golden Knights – $1.1 MM in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – Alexei Emelin retained
Ottawa Senators – $350,000 in 2017-18, issues resolved after current year – Andrew Hammond buried
Buffalo Sabres – Minimal in 2017-18, increased issues ($791,00) resolved after 2022-23 – Cody Hodgson buyout
Chicago Blackhawks, St. Louis Blues, Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins, New York Islanders, San Jose Sharks, Montreal Canadiens – No dead cap space
After compiling the list, it became clear that utilizing these options isn’t a complete hindrance to competing in the NHL. In fact, most clubs have between $1 MM and $3 MM in dead space. That said, of the teams that have not needed to utilize the buyout or retention options, there has been a great deal of success. And among the five worst offenders, the Leafs, Hurricanes, Blue Jackets, Avalanche, and Coyotes, none has moved past the first-round in multiple years. It’s hard to draw massive conclusions without taking the context of each individual situation into account, but there is something to be said for making every dollar of cap space count. Perhaps this is merely a byproduct of past success rather than an indicator of future success, but considering how amenable many managers have become to the option, it bears consideration.
(All totals courtesy of the fantastic CapFriendly.com)
Johnny Oduya Signs With Ottawa Senators
The Ottawa Senators have dipped back into the unrestricted free agent pool, signing Johnny Oduya to a one-year, $1MM contract. The deal also contains bonuses that could earn Oduya up to an additional $1.25MM. The bonuses are as follows:
- 41 games played: $250K
- 65 games played: $250K
- Top-5 in TOI among team defensemen: $250K
- Top-3 in TOI among team defensemen: $250K
- Qualify for playoffs: $250K
We profiled Oduya’s free agent case just yesterday, and ranked him 32nd on our Top 50 free agent list back in June. At that point, we predicted a one-year $2.5MM contract for the veteran defender, which goes to show how respectable this deal is from the Senators stand point. Other 30+ depth defenders like Ron Hainsey, Trevor Daley, Matt Hunwick and Dan Girardi all got quite a bit more money guaranteed, and some term on their contract. The 35-year old Oduya is coming off a disappointing season, but still likely has something to offer the Senators.
When the Senators lost Marc Methot to the Vegas Golden Knights, a huge chunk of minutes were lost from the left side of their defense group. While an increased role for Frederik Claesson or Ben Harpur could fill in some of that, Oduya provides a much more experienced and reliable option. It will be interesting to see if he ever gets to skate with countryman Erik Karlsson on the top pairing, or if he spends more time with Chris Wideman on the bottom pair. The team still also has Dion Phaneuf (and Mark Borowiecki) on the left side, though the team seems hesitant to breaking up he and Cody Ceci.
Either way, adding a defenseman with over 100 playoff games and two Stanley Cups under his belt for just $1MM is never a bad thing. Oduya should be able to impart some of his knowledge on the young Senators defenders, including top prospect Thomas Chabot should he make the team this year. Oduya split last season between Dallas and Chicago, where he registered nine points in 52 games.
Timeline Of Ryan Dzingel's New Contract
The two-year, $3.6MM deal that the Senators gave to winger Ryan Dzingel on Friday came together rather quickly. Speaking with Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen, GM Pierre Dorion noted that the contract came together in a little under an hour. The compromise was struck when Dzingel lowered his request for the salary in the first year while the Sens moved off their hard-line number in the second season. The way the contract is structured ($1.5MM in 2017-18 and $2.1MM in 2018-19) sets up Dzingel for a $2.1MM qualifying offer in the summer of 2019.