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Ottawa’s Expansion Conundrum

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The Ottawa Senators are in for a tough decision come the completion of their playoff run, whenever that might be. Ottawa has a team which is built upon depth and scoring by committee, but each NHL team can only protect 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, and 1 goaltender – or alternatively, 8 total skaters and 1 goaltender in the upcoming expansion draft. The Senators are in a situation where they will likely prefer to lose a veteran with a large contract. This seems doubly true because the organization is believed to have an internal cap for financial reasons, and will need to clear space in order to hand out hefty raises to Mark Stone and Kyle Turris following the 2017-18 campaign.

Obviously, Erik Karlsson, Stone, Turris, and Mike Hoffman will be protected. Karlsson is a perennial Norris favorite, captain of the team, and one of the best offensive defensemen the game has seen in decades. Stone and Hoffman are the driving forces behind offensive production, and are both on the young end of their primes. Turris has finally, fully come into his own as a number one center, posting  a 27 goal, 55 point season. Considering the price to acquire him (Mika Zibanejad) and the relative value of centers to this team which isn’t too formidable up the middle, Derick Brassard also seems a certainty to stay. Craig Anderson is the obvious pick in net. He’s been an absolute rock that the team has depended on the past few seasons, and this year was simply extraordinary. Cody Ceci is also a rather safe bet, consider minutes logged, age, and his role on the back-end. Marc Methot should seemingly be a core piece to the defense as well, but as we will soon see, his situation is far more complicated. So, in terms of definitely protected players:

Forward:    Hoffman, Stone, Turris, Brassard

Defense:    Karlsson, Ceci

Goalie:    Anderson

That leaves 3 forwards and 1 defensemen, or, alternatively, 2 total skaters to protect. It seems somewhat unlikely (although not impossible) that they will opt for the latter option. If we look at the potential list of who can be protected, there are no easy answers. Up front, Alexandre Burrows seems to have been a solid fit, as he has played well since being promoted to Turris’ right wing on the top line, and his cap hit drops to a measly $2.5 MM going forward. Zack Smith has been a more-than-capable third-line center, and is signed to a cap-friendly deal for four years after this. Bobby Ryan is incredibly overpaid ($7.25 MM) considering his performance this past year (25 points), but has expressed his profound disappointment in his own season to the relative acceptance of the fanbase. It doesn’t hurt his cause that he has been Ottawa’s best skater this post-season by far, leading the team with 7 points through 6 games. Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Ryan Dzingel could also receive consideration for a protected forward spot, but only one is likely to remain unguarded.

In terms of defense, Dion Phaneuf has a bloated contract which would be especially helpful to be rid of. Phaneuf is getting an absurd $7 MM per year , but he is on the “must-protect” list due to his modified no-trade, no-movement clause. The team could ask him to waive, but considering his solid play of late, this is more difficult to conceive. There is also no guarantee that Vegas would be interested in the player. The up-and-coming Fredrik Claesson is exempt from the expansion draft and needs no protection. Therefore, it seems likely that Methot ($4.9 MM) will be the odd man out, as he would likely be exposed in the 7-3 option. This would be a difficult pill for Ottawa fans to swallow, as Methot has arguably been their best shutdown player and he logs a ton of tough minutes.

For a team that has worked so hard to shore up its back-end and add depth up front, there are no easy solutions for GM Pierre Dorion. If you lose Methot, you lose your best defensive defenseman – if you expose a resurgent Ryan, you surrender a creative offensive weapon. Either way, Vegas is likely going to pick one of its integral players from Canada’s capital city.

Snapshots: Krejci, Stevens, Stastny

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Boston’s David Krejci suffered an injury after a knee-on-knee collision with Ottawa’s Chris Wideman. He will not return to the game. There was no call on the ice, although the play easily could have drawn an infraction. The play can be viewed here. Krejci could not put much weight on his leg and looked pained as he left the ice. The Bruin had just returned from a previous, unrelated injury, and was slotted in as the 2nd line center between wingers Drew Stafford and David Backes. Krejci had tallied 54 points in the full 82 games this past season. His team is fighting to stave off elimination at the hands of the Senators, trailing 3-1 in the series. Regardless of the result of the game, there is the possibility for review for Wideman by the Department of Player Safety, especially in light of an equally scary Kadri-on-Ovechkin hit just minutes earlier in the other contest.

  • The Los Angeles Kings are reportedly close to an agreement to hire John Stevens as their new head coach. As noted by colleague Gavin Lee earlier this month, his son, captain of Northwestern (also John Stevens), has drawn interest from management. Stevens (the senior) started out his head coaching career with 6 seasons for the AHL’s Philadelphia Phantoms, culminating in a Calder Cup win in 2004-05 – a season which drew lots of interest due to the NHL lockout of that year. Stevens was promoted to head coach of the Philadelphia Flyers after the following season, serving until he was fired midway through the 2009-10 campaign. Following his firing, that Flyers team then went on to make the Finals after just barely making the post-season under Peter Laviolette. Stevens earned two Stanley Cup rings as assistant coach to Darryl Sutter during the Kings’ championship runs of 2012 and 2014, after his brief (4-game) stint as interim coach for the franchise. Stevens is known for his endearing “players’ coach” personality and rapport with developing younger players. He has an all-time record of 122-111-34 as a head NHL bench boss.
  • Help is apparently on the way for the St. Louis Blues, who still hold a commanding 3-1 lead in their series with the Minnesota Wild. Both Paul Stastny and Jori Lehtera look probable to return to competition in Game 5. Stastny has been out of action since he took a shot from a teammate off the foot a month ago. Lehtera has been out with an apparent illness since April 8th. Stastny potted 40 points in his limited 66 games this season, while Lehtera was less impressive with 22 in 64 games. Both centers will provide depth up the middle for St. Louis, and assistance on faceoffs. Considering how proficient Jake Allen has been so far these playoffs, their contributions on the defensive side of the puck will only make Minnesota’s offensive efforts even tougher. Both players posted average Corsi For just above the mid-line 50%, but each boasts a wealth of playoff experience that is difficult to replace this time of year. Stastny’s post-season consistency in particular should inspire confidence in his ability to contribute to his squad. Ivan Barbashev and Zach Sanford are expected to sit out.

*The original post had incorrectly cited Dennis Wideman as the offender*

Roster Notes: Haula, Lazar, Oduya

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Lineup changes have arrived for the Flames according to Kristen Odland, as the team will attempt to ward off elimination. Matt Stajan and Lance Bouma have both been told to take the night off, as Curtis Lazar and Freddie Hamilton find their way back to the ice. Hamilton had 2 goals and 0 assists in his 26 regular season games, and Lazar had 1 goal and 3 assists in his 37 games played. Neither is obviously expected to provide stellar offense, but instead to spark energy and infuse youth into a lineup which looked gassed in their Game 3 three-goal lead implosion. Lazar had been held pointless in 6 games while dressed for the Senators in the playoffs two seasons ago, though he was fantastic for the Oil Kings in their Memorial Cup run the year prior. This will be Hamilton’s first playoff experience.

  • Blackhawks’ Johnny Oduya has been yanked from the lineup by coach Joel Quenneville for a potentially deciding Game 4. Michal Kempny is expected to take his place. The 26 year-old Czech defenseman had a phenomenally underappreciated season, posting an absurd 56.1% Corsi For. The left-handed shooting defenseman has never played in a playoff game. He had gone unsigned until May of last year, when he was acquired by the organization for depth. He ended up playing 50 games for the Hawks, despite marginal offensive totals. Oduya’s veteran status makes this a surprising move, although his lack of speed and age were starting to show in a series where the Predators’ forecheck was relentless.
  • Erik Haula will not play for the Minnesota Wild tonight in their game against the Blues. Haula was held pointless and registered a -2 through 3 games. Coach Bruce Boudreau did not confirm who would take his spot, as he had been playing on the top unit with Mikko Koivu. This is a surprising move despite his struggles in the series, as the forward had been producing at a decent clip before running into the red-hot Jake Allen. There has been no word as to who will replace his position on the left wing.

Snapshots: Harpur, Branch, Krejci

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According to Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia, Ben Harpur will be in the lineup for the Ottawa Senators tonight after playing a few games down the stretch for the team. He’ll be making his NHL playoff debut just a year after spending time in the ECHL, proving how far he has come during that time. With 27 points in 63 AHL games this year, the 6’6″ Harpur has shown he can do more than just defend, but will be relied upon to replace Mark Borowiecki’s physical presence against the Boston Bruins.

Harpur will be an option for the Senators next season as a seventh defenseman, especially if the team does lose one of Borowiecki or Chris Wideman in the expansion draft. With Dion Phanuef still holding his no-movement clause, the Senators are actually at risk of losing a more important defender like Marc Methot or Cody Ceci, but will likely ask the former Maple Leaf to waive it prior to the deadline.

  • The Flint Firebirds have had a roller-coaster few seasons, but will now install Barclay Branch as their GM according to Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News. The team had to have the OHL step in and install George Burnett at the end of last year after a tumultuous season that saw the league ban the Firebirds’ owner Rolf Nilsen from any hockey operations decisions. Burnett will move into a position with the OHL after stabilizing the franchise—Flint finished 32-28-8 and made it to the playoffs in just their second season.
  • The AHL handed out two suspensions today, banning Darren Kramer of the Manitoba Moose for three games and Michael Latta of the Rockford IceHogs for one. Both players will have to serve the suspensions next year, as their seasons have finished without a postseason berth.
  • David Krejci will take the warm up for the Boston Bruins tonight according to Joe Haggerty of CSNNE. The center hasn’t played in the first two games of the playoffs, but “feels much better” and will try to go tonight. The Bruins could use him, as they won just 46% of the faceoffs in their game two loss.

Morning Notes: Flames Burn Out, Toronto’s Unlikely Hero, Looking Ahead

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Saturday April 15th was a riveting evening of hockey for any fan of the sport. The Blackhawks were dominated 5-0 by the Predators in Game 2, but the other three games were all nail-biters. The Flames looked to take the lead after climbing out of a 2 goal deficit in the 2nd period, but the call on the ice of goalie interference against John Gibson kept the game tied. The Ducks would go on to get a bizarre ricochet goal from the stick of Ryan Getzlaf with just 4:46 remaining in regulation to secure an ugly win, and go up 2-0 in the series.

  • The Leafs’ Kasperi Kapanen has not been in the spotlight – the likes of Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Auston Matthews have been so phenomenal that he is easily forgotten in the mix. The promising young crafty forward was the centerpiece of the Phil Kessel deal, which until now, had undoubtedly looked to favor the Penguins. Serving 4th-line duty, the forward had only scored one goal in his 8 games up with big squad this season. In the second overtime of Saturday’s Game 2 versus the Capitals, the forward crept in to the back post as Brian Boyle used his lanky frame to fool the netminder into sealing the near post in anticipation. The result was a gorgeous finish to a game where an unlikely hero was desperately needed. If the forward can build on this huge goal, perhaps he can become an X-factor in a series where they are the underdogs. He seems to be confident in the team’s chances.
  • The Senators would not go down quietly. Down 2 goals through 40 minutes, the squad rallied to tie the game with tallies from Chris Wideman and Derick Brassard. As mentioned in an earlier post, Chara’s late regulation delay-of-game penalty proved quite costly, as the Senators capitalized on the powerplay’s momentum and ended the overtime quickly. Dion Phaneuf hammered one home after the team had hit two posts previously in quick succession. The series has been incredibly tight, but surely Bruins fans will lament the lost opportunity, especially in light of their badly bruised defensive squad.
  • Four games will take place this Sunday. The Wild will try to avoid going down 3-0 in hostile territory, the Blue Jackets will hope to dodge a similar fate with cannons firing, and the Sharks and Rangers look to go up at home after splitting the first two on the road.

Over The Glass: Delay Of Game Penalties And Unintended Consequences

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Ever since returning from the lockout season of 2004-05, the league has enacted a wide array of rules with the sole aim of increasing goal totals. In the season of return, the league did away with the two-line pass rule in hopes of allowing more odd-man rushes. Penalties automatically brought the impending draw in front of the offending team’s net. Icings would not allow the offending team to make a change in players, resulting in tired defenders. The NHL created a delay-of-game infraction for shooting the puck over the glass in the defensive zone, regardless of intent, as to increase power plays. Additionally, the league instituted a trapezoid of playable area behind the net for goaltenders, apparently to destroy Martin Brodeur’s dreams of a 20-goal season.

Each of these rules is well-known, and to a new generation of hockey fans, widely accepted as the norm. Hockey has undoubtedly undergone numerous rule alterations since its early inception in Canada, as the roving 6th skater and backward-only passes have long since gone extinct in the name of excitement and simplicity. There is certainly no argument that all rule changes are detrimental – quite the contrary. However, there is undoubtedly a beauty to the game as it exists right now, which is the argument to which many purists adhere. Conversely, the golden scoring era of the 1980s is looked upon with reverence and extreme fondness, for all of its faults and shortcomings in parity and defensive play. Neither extreme fully or honestly represents the counterpoints to his position, and the result is a constant struggle between old-school and new-school, conservative and radical.

In Game 2 of the Ottawa-Boston series earlier this evening, a delay-of-game penalty was called against Zdeno Chara for clearing the puck over the glass with 12 seconds remaining in regulation. Ottawa’s Dion Phaneuf didn’t score on the ensuing powerplay in overtime, but did shortly thereafter, and largely a result of that powerplay’s momentum. The scene is one that was all-too-familiar – nearly any fan can recount a horror story resulting from this rule’s implementation. Pittsburgh nearly suffered a death blow last playoffs when they were forced into overtime following three of these infractions in a row. Although no fan is dissatisfied to see their own squad on the powerplay, the rule feels slightly unjustified and slightly tainted. For all intents and purposes, clearing the puck over the glass effectively achieves the same end as icing the puck. Not allowing line changes seems fair punishment to players who would opt to take the easy route after being hemmed in their own zone. Applying a two-minute penalty, regardless of the intent, seems frivolous and irrational.

It seems only a matter of time before a pivotal series is determined solely by this sort of inadvertent mishap.

Calvert Suspended One Game For Kuhnhackl Cross-Check

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Columbus Blue Jacket Matt Calvert has indeed been suspended by the Department of Player Safety for one game for his cross-check Friday night on Tom Kuhnhackl. This is the first suspension of the 2017 postseason. As referenced by colleague Mike Furlano earlier in the day, this suspension was one which was difficult to predict. The Department of Player Safety has been notoriously inconsistent in its application of league rules, especially when the playoffs are concerned.

The last suspension for a cross-check was assessed to Mike Hoffman of the Ottawa Senators on December 14th of last year, for a length of two games. The video of the infraction can be viewed here, with commentary from the DoPS. Although this play is certainly reckless, it occurs in front of the net in a tied game, in what could conceivably be construed as a “hockey play”. Hoffman, like Calvert, had no previous fines or suspensions – “prior history” in the eyes of the league. The Calvert play, meanwhile, occurs at center ice with little time in a game that is virtually over. Perhaps most importantly is the difference between reactions of the two players, on the ice and off. Hoffman attempted to justify his actions by explaining the riding of his stick upwards on the back of Logan Couture. On the ice, he stumbled over the player after delivering the blow. Calvert, conversely, changed his path and doubled back to deliver a body check to the hunched Kuhnhackl’s head following the cross-check.

Perhaps the greatest grievance of hockey fans is the inconsistency when it comes to intent. Not unlike ethical dilemmas, we often choose to judge the severity of a misstep by the underlying intent. Was the offender malicious and knowing in his action, or was the action merely a result of circumstance? Society functions in this way, the law works this way, and even the NHL rulebook provides a separate match penalty towards those who attempt to injury opponents. A large reason why the Scott Stevens headshots have left the game is because the intent was not merely to separate the player from the puck, but to inflict grievous bodily harm. One can only hope that a Todd Bertuzzi incident won’t be necessary for the league to take more substantial, decisive action to protect its players, postseason or regular, star or 4th -liner, history or not.

Officiating will likely continue to pose an issue this post-season, as fans’ patience for situational leniency will be tested.

 

 

Senators Update: Marc Methot, Ryan Dzingel

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The Ottawa Senators should welcome the return of two players tonight in Game 2 playoff action against the Boston Bruins. Forward Ryan Dzingel and defenseman Marc Methot may make their 2016-17 playoff debuts after missing game one.

Methot is suffering from a lacerated finger after being slashed by Pittsburgh Penguins forward Sidney Crosby on March 23rd. He has not played since the injury, but Post Media’s Bruce Garrioch and the Ottawa Citizen’s Ken Warren think he’ll play tonight. Coach Guy Boucher said that decision will be made after the pre-game warm-ups, and that Methot is “more than close.” Ken Warren thinks the Senators will dress seven defenseman in case Methot cannot finish the game.

Ottawa made Dzingel a healthy scratch in game one, but will dress him tonight, reports Ken Warren. Dzingel finished the year with 14G and 18A, but struggled down the stretch with only 2G and 1A in his last twenty games. Boucher initially opted for veteran Tommy Wingels over Dzingel in game one, but Wingels played under ten minutes with no notable effect. In an interview with media today, Boucher expects Dzingel’s speed to complement the Senators’ fast-paced play.

Bruins Notes: Krejci, C. Miller, Morrow, Subban

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Fresh off a 2-1 Game One win against the Ottawa Senators on Wednesday night without three starters in David Krejci, Torey Krug, and Brandon Carlo, it appears that the Boston Bruins will have to line up for Game Two with an even more short-handed roster. While the team has until their matinee puck drop on Saturday to make any official announcement, it sounds as though defenseman Colin Miller will join the growing list of injuries. Miller, who left the previous game after suffering a lower body injury on a trip from Mark Borowiecki, was on the ice for practice today, but left early due to pain and discomfort. After practice, head coach Bruce Cassidy made it sound very unlikely that Miller would be available for the next game.

With Miller out, in addition to Krug and Carlo, Joe Morrow is the next man up to slot in on the blue line. Morrow, a former first-round pick and a piece of the Tyler Seguin trade, has not been able to work his way into regular play time in years with the Bruins. With John-Michael Liles in the fold this season, Morrow was bumped down to eighth on the depth chart and has not played in almost three months. However, the Bruins were able to beat the Senators with just five defenseman for most of Game One, so even a cold Morrow could be an upgrade as Boston looks to take a stranglehold on the series with another road win.

  • Having Krejci back would certainly go a long way to help the Bruins take a 2-0 series lead, but Cassidy confirmed that Boston’s highest-paid player will miss another game. Cassidy did add the qualifier that “as of today” he would miss the game, and Krejci did suit up for warm-ups before being a late scratch in Game One,  however he missed practice today and all signs point to the Bruins playing is safe with their third-highest scorer.

Expansion Requirements Still Needing Attention

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For teams outside the playoffs, preparation for the summer months starts early. Free agency, coaching staffs, prospect profiles and this year, another interesting workload: the Expansion Draft. For many teams, much of the work to prepare for the expansion draft was already done during the season. We saw extensions for players like Michal Rozsival, trades for fringe forwards like Eric Fehr, and goaltenders given contracts without ever really making an NHL impact.

But still there remains much to be done in preparation for the draft, and contracts should come out over the next month to protect teams from an unexpected loss. Each team must expose at least two forwards and one defender who is both a) under contract for 2017-18 and b) played either 40 games in 2016-17 OR a total of 70 games in 2015-16 and 2016-17 combined. They must also expose one goaltender who is either under contract for 2017-18 or will be an RFA this summer. While much of this depends on who each team decides to protect, these are the situations that will likely see a move or extension handed out before the deadline.

Arizona Coyotes

The Coyotes currently have just three forwards who could fill this requirement: Jamie McGinn, Tobias Rieder and Brad Richardson. While Richardson is an easy choice, the other two don’t deserve to be exposed even if McGinn did have a disappointing year. The easy way to solve it would be extend Josh Jooris, who qualifies but doesn’t have a contract past this season currently. Peter Holland could also be sacrificed, though it’s unclear whether the front office believes in him as a piece going forward for this team.

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