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Snapshots: GM Report Cards, Rangers, Nashville’s Defense

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Hockey Graphs takes an in-depth look at the 31 general managers in the NHL (including Vegas and those who were recently let go–Dean Lombardi and Tim Murray) using a variety of different metrics. Leading the pack is Nashville’s Dave Poile, while the Canucks’ Jim Benning rounds out the list at number thirty-one. It’s a list that relies heavily on advanced metrics and other measurements, staying in line with Hockey Graph’s dedication to taking the emotion out of hockey analysis and instead, using the quantitative side (with a smattering of qualitative analysis) to create the list. Part one of the article helps make sense of how they came up with their rankings while giving a background to the metrics used.

  • Newsday’s Steve Zipay reports that the Rangers aren’t looking too far ahead as they try to even up their series against Ottawa tomorrow night. After drubbing the Sens 4-1, the Rangers have an advantage as Bobby Ryan and Zack Smith are both injured, and the Sens will have to “alter” lines. Several Rangers were adamant that while falling into a 3-1 hole would be difficult to overcome, netminder Henrik Lundqvist said they must take it one game at a time.  Zipay adds that though Rick Nash didn’t practice, he will absolutely be playing in Game 4.
  • ESPN’s Chuck Gormley writes that its the Nashville blueline is wreaking havoc through these playoffs, pacing the Preds’ strong play and making a case for the organization’s first Stanley Cup. The team’s defenseman has eight goals and fourteen assists in just eight games, and according to Gormley, it’s looking more and more like the trade for P.K. Subban will tilt heavily in Nashville’s favor as the victor of the deal. Gormley highlights each player on the blueline, and writing that should the Predators continue on the path they are, it could be an epic matchup in the next round should Edmonton continue its ascent through the playoffs.

Red Wings Notes: Draft Targets, Svechnikov

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Since the Red Wings will be picking in the top ten for the first time since taking Martin Lapointe in 1991, there are a number of theories as to who they might take. MLive’s Brendan Savage pencils in Russian Klim Kostin via a Bleacher Report article conducting mock drafts. Kostin is an 18-year-old winger who was limited this season due to a shoulder injury, but spent time with the KHL’s Dynamo Moscow. NHL Central Scouting has Kostin as its #1 skater while last July, the Hockey News’ Ryan Kennedy had a write up on Kostin, who opted to stay in Russia instead of playing in North America after being taken in the CHL Import Draft. Kennedy pegged Kostin as a top pick in this year’s draft, and though injury has kept Kostin down this season, the Red Wings seem to be line for a player who scouts peg as a strong scorer down the road.

  • Fan Rag’s Franklin Steele penned a draft target piece about the Red Wings as well, listing defensemen Cale Makar, Jusso Valimaki, and forward Elias Pettersson as possible choices. Makar and Valimaki both fill a major need for Detroit which is a top defenseman, one they can grow into a desperately needed one or two d-man. Makar brings elite skating and skill. Valimaki scored at a point-per-game pace with the Tri-City Americans in the WHL, revealing another skill defenseman the Wings desperately crave. Should defensemen not be there, Steele believes Pettersson makes the most sense, should Owen Tippett or Gabe Vilardi not be available. A two way forward, Pettersson has what Steele calls the “fastest hands” of the prospects, but some red flags, including struggling during international play, could be a liability.
  • Evgeny Svechnikov leads AHL affiliate Grand Rapids into its second round matchup against the Chicago Wolves in the Calder Cup playoffs writes the Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James. The Griffins made quick work of Milwaukee, sweeping them en route to its tilt with the Wolves. Svechnikov, who many believe could crack the Red Wings roster out of training camp next season, is tied with four points in just three games. Fellow prospect Tyler Bertuzzi, also has four points. This builds on Svechnikov’s torrid second half, where he notched 34 points in 36 games, scoring 10 goals and adding 24 assists. St. James reports that head coach Todd Nelson calls Svechnikov a “great success story,” adding that the youngster spent a lot of time watching video to cut down on turnovers. The result, Nelson says, is a more complete game.

Hart Trophy Finalists Announced

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The NHL’s Hart Trophy finalists were released today and include Columbus Blue Jackets goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, Pittsburgh Penguins forward Sidney Crosby, and Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid.

The names surprise no one as all three were expected finalists. Crosby and McDavid were one and two in NHL scoring, and Bobrovsky led the league in GAA and SV% amongst starting NHL goaltenders.

Bobrovsky, as noted by the Blue Jackets’ Public Relations team, is the first MVP finalist in Blue Jackers history. He posted a .931 SV% and a 2.06 GAA in 63 games. He was considered Columbus’s best player in a surprising season for the Metropolitan Division team. He’s also a finalist for the NHL’s Vezina Trophy awarded to the league’s best goaltender.

Sidney Crosby finished tied for 2nd in league scoring with 44G and 45A in 75 games. He tied Chicago Blackhawks forward Patrick Kane in points with 89, but did it in seven fewer games. Crosby has already locked up the Maurice “Rocket” Richard trophy for most goals this season. Crosby has been a Hart Trophy finalist six times, and won the award in 2007 and 2014

Connor McDavid led the NHL in scoring with 30G and 70A in 82 games. He led a Edmonton Oilers squad to its first playoff birth since 2006 in only his second pro season. This season he won the Art Ross Trophy for most points in the NHL.

Notable absences—thought to have finished fourth and lower—include Tampa Bay Lightning’s Nikita Kucherov, Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews, and Boston Bruins forward Brad Marchand.

NHL Fires Back At NHLPA In Concussion Lawsuit

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In the ongoing lawsuit between the NHL and over 100 former NHL players, the league has begun to try and shift blame to the NHLPA for impeding rule changes that may have better protected its members. In the latest report from Rick Westhead of TSN who has been following this story from the beginning, he includes sections of an affidavit from Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly filed with the court on Thursday. The plaintiffs are trying to get the case certified as class action which—similar to the recent certification of the OHL lawsuit—would automatically include over 5000 former players as plaintiffs.

In the affidavit, Daly writes:

A history of the playing rules, supplemental discipline, equipment standards, playing environment characteristics and/or the league’s approach to player safety that fails to consider and account for the NHLPA’s role with respect to these matters is inherently incomplete and profoundly misleading.

Westhead also added on Twitter documents that point to players refusing concussion testing in the past, adding to the idea that it was the players themselves who slowed down concussion prevention and diagnoses. Recently, the courts denied the NHL’s request for all research and communication from Boston University’s study of CTE, saying that it would be a “staggering” task for the study to complete because of the retractions they would have to make on each document to protect patient confidentiality.

Should the case be certified class action, the NHL could possibly be liable for much more than if individual players had to pursue individual claims. Westhead reports that the courts could decide this summer over whether or not to certify it. While this is obviously far from decided at the moment, it does seem to point to a bigger strategy by the league to implicate that the players themselves are a party to any and all concussion issues the hockey world has faced.

Eastern Notes: Shattenkirk’s Struggles, Shalunov

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While the Washington Capitals have received nothing but praise from the press since they made their trade deadline deal to acquire veteran defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk, his presence during the playoffs so far have been far from impressive. The veteran defenseman, who was picked up from the playoff-bound St. Louis Blues for a host of picks and players, including their 2017 first-round pick, has struggled in the playoffs with no goals and three assists in eight games this season. He also has a minus-seven rating in that span. Yesterday, he lost a race to 40-year-old Matt Cullen, which allowed the veteran to score a short-handed goal against the Capitals. Later, he took a delay of game penalty to allow Phil Kessel to score in the third period.

Coach Barry Trotz was also disappointed in the 28-year-old blueliner’s performance as he called him out this morning. “That’s not good enough for what we need in that third pairing right now. Minus-7 is hard to recover from,” Trotz said. Shattenkirk and defensive partner Brooks Orpik have struggled together as that third defensive line. In the first series against the Maple Leafs, the two allowed five goals in the series, the most of all the defensive pairings.

These mistakes have been costly enough with the Capitals now down two games and having to travel to Pittsburgh for the next two, but it also may not help him in the offseason when he is an unrestricted free agent, according to Adam Gretz of NBC Sports. While he will undoubtedly will receive a raise from his $2.592MM contract that ends this year, a good playoff performance or a long playoff run by Washington could have improved his value in the free-agency market. However, his struggles will likely not help him if things continue to stay the course.

So, if things don’t continue to improve, could Washington let Shattenkirk walk in free agency? Only time will tell.

  • Chicago Blackhawks prospect Maxim Shalunov will not be coming to the NHL any time soon as the 24-year-old wing will sign a three-year contract with Sibir Novosbibitsk of the KHL, according to his agent Shumi Babayev yesterday, according to Scott Powers of The Athletic. That means the Blackhawks’ couldn’t bring Shalunov over to the U.S. before the 2020-21 season. He will, however, remain a Blackhawk as long as he stays on their resevered list. The fourth-round pick from the 2011  NHL draft is coming off a season in which he scored 19 goals for Sibir Novosbibitsk this past year. Babayev warned that Shalunov would cut off negotiations with the NHL a few weeks ago after the NHL announced that it would not restructure its season around the 2018 Olympic Games.

Snapshots: Holtby, Ritchie, Vrana

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Washington’s Braden Holtby will get the start for Game 3 in Pittsburgh. He was yanked after surrendering 3 goals on just 14 shots through 2 periods. Philipp Grubauer didn’t fare much better, however, as he let in 2 of 9 himself in the final period. The decision to pull the reigning Vezina trophy winner was maligned following the game by commentators, such as the Washington Post’s Dan Steinberg who believed the move was “a sign of panic”. Holtby has struggled this post-season, not looking particularly strong in the first series against Toronto. His .911 save percentage these playoffs is certainly respectable but also easily his career low. It’s difficult to believe that his massive workload over the course of the season isn’t playing a factor in his drop-off in play. The netminder played an absurd 63 games this past season, which is difficult to defend from a coaching standpoint. His backup in Grubauer performed well above expectations, helping the duo capture the Jennings trophy. Additionally, the Capitals looked to be a lock for the post-season well before April, so why Holtby was subjected to yet another season of heavy lifting seems confusing. At least he didn’t play 73 games, like he did two seasons ago. One has to wonder if Carey Price, Sergei Bobrovsky, and Braden Holtby have all succumbed to fatigue to varying degrees, considering their individual struggles come playoffs. Regardless, Holtby will need to improve if Washington hopes to claw their way back into the series on the road.

  • Anaheim forward Nick Ritchie and defenseman Sami Vatanen are both potential options for tonight’s game against Edmonton. Ritchie is out with the flu, and Vatanen has been out with an upper body injury since Game 1 versus Calgary in the last round. Both took the ice for the optional skate this morning, but no further information was provided. Vatanen had been replaced by Korbinian Holzer, who struggled in the season with a very poor 40.4 Corsi For percentage, taking a huge step backwards from the previous season in terms of driving possession. Ritchie had been replaced by Jared Boll, the heavy right-winger who accumulated an abysmal 39.3 CF% on the season – one of the league’s worst – to go along with his 0 goals through 51 games. The re-addition of Ritchie would be huge for a team that has had difficulty penetrating the wall that has been Cam Talbot.
  • Washington prospect Jakub Vrana was scratched last night for the Hershey Bears. The 21 year-old left-winger is crafty with the puck and was projected to be an effective offensive force. The Czech has had trouble adjusting his style to the North American game, however. He was drafted 13th overall in 2014 and had a decent sophomore season when he played, earning 21 games up with the Capitals, notching 3 goals and 3 assists in that span. He was held pointless through 3 games in the Bears’ series against the Lehigh Valley Phantoms. Head coach Troy Mann was displeased with his unwillingness to engage physically and defend on the backcheck. His effort level is remarkably low for a prospect which was considered top-tier. Getting scratched at the AHL level of play doesn’t bode well for his future in the NHL, although stranger things have happened.

World Championships: Austria, South Korea Promoted

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Both Austria and South Korea have been promoted to Division 1 play for next year’s World Championships. After a tight and grueling tournament, Korea edged out the Ukraine in a shootout to take the final spot. South Korea will host the 2018 Olympics in PyeongChang, and regardless of NHL involvement, the spotlight will be on their country to make a mark in the hockey world. They apparently will not be outclassed too mightily, as they have steeply improved under the direction of former NHLers Jim Paek and Richard Park. As recently as 2009, Korea was in Division II and they had consistently been ranked lower than 30th in terms of world ranking.

Austria is less of a surprise, as they had been relegated only in 2015. The country boasts successful NHL players such as Michael Grabner, Thomas Vanek, and Michael Raffl. They obliterated Poland in their final game 11-0 to win the tournament, proving definitively that they belong at the next level. The losing-est country in each group at the Worlds will face relegation and take their places in Division 1A. A country being able to compete with the top talent in the world on international hockey’s biggest stage is a huge boost in visibility for prospects and increases viability for its players in terms of acquiring a sizable pro contract.

The major tournament will begin on May 5 and conclude on May 21. As always, Canada and the United States are at a bit of a disadvantage as NHLers tend to opt out of the competition following a grueling 82 games and potential playoff runs. Additionally, some of the best players will still be playing as the Stanley Cup Playoffs continue to grind along. Russia, Sweden, and Finland are heavy contenders, and Switzerland seemingly improves every year. The IIHF tournament is a wonderful time to view lesser known adult stars from overseas, and an impressive performance can mean lucrative playing opportunities. The games will be played in Paris, France and Cologne, Germany.

NHL Draft Lottery Notes: Odds, History, Viewing

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For the fourteen teams that missed the playoffs and the expansion Vegas Golden Knights, they have one thing in common: they’re hoping Bill Daly is holding a card with their logo on it, announcing that they have the first overall pick.

At 7pm central, NBC, CBC, and Sportsnet will show the NHL Draft Lottery as the Colorado Avalanche lead all teams in terms of percentage for receiving the #1 pick. Below are the odds:

Colorado Avalanche — 18.0%
Vancouver Canucks — 12.1%
Vegas Golden Knights — 10.3%
Arizona Coyotes — 10.3%
New Jersey Devils — 8.5%
Buffalo Sabres — 7.6%
Detroit Red Wings — 6.7%
Dallas Stars — 5.8%
Florida Panthers — 5.4%
Los Angeles Kings — 4.5%
Carolina Hurricanes — 3.2%
Winnipeg Jets — 2.7%
Philadelphia Flyers — 2.2%
Tampa Bay Lightning 1.8%
New York Islanders — 0.9%

TSN has a lengthy writeup on the history of the lottery and how the current format differs from other versions. The biggest change for the draft is that instead of the worst team being guaranteed, at worst, a second overall pick, they are only promised a top four pick. This was placed to discourage teams from “tanking” to draft top-end talent, which hasn’t completely negated the idea of tanking as Toronto won the right to draft Auston Matthews last season with the #1 pick while securing the worst record in the NHL.

What’s new to 2017?  From Sportsnet:

For just the second time in NHL draft lottery history, the top three picks are in play. This rule was implemented by the league in 2016 to dull incentive for any team to finish lower in the standings (i.e., tanking).

The odds of winning the second and third draws increases on a proportional basis depending on which team claimed the previous draw.

The addition of a 15th lottery team, Vegas, into the mix also affects the winning percentages.

This draft is different too, since the top two picks for the first time in three seasons are not considered the “generational talent” that Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Matthews or Patrik Laine were when looking back at the one and two overall picks respectively.

This isn’t to besmirch the top two candidates, Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier. After all, “can’t miss” prospects have fooled scouts and analysts before while prospects that scouts didn’t think were as good sometimes exceeded expectations.

But before the talent can be chosen, there needs to be an order. Tonight will determine that.

Specifics: 

Time: 7pm CST
Where to watch: CBC, Sportsnet, NBC

Playoff Notes: Rangers, Ducks, Oilers

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The Rangers could find themselves in a 2-0 hole tonight if they don’t make some adjustments writes the New York Post’s Brett Cyrgalis. The Rangers lost game one by the “thinnest of margins” after a fluke from Erik Karlsson sealed a 2-1 Senators victory. Cyrgalis reports that as the playoffs march on and the Rangers continue to compete, the possibility of hoisting the Stanley Cup becomes less and less far fetched. It’s why they have to play with intensity, while the Senators, according to Cyrgalis, are playing a great game of psychological warfare–using positive comments. He notes that Sens head coach Guy Boucher has a degree in sports psychology, and it feels as if they’re trying to lull the Rangers into a sense of security with compliments and by using words like “fear” to describe them. While it remains to be seen how the series goes, the Rangers must continue to build upon the strong play they exhibited against Montreal in order to continue playing into June.

  • LA Daily News writer Elliott Teaford tweets that the Ducks may be without Sami Vatanen, while Kevin Bieksa could be out for the series. The Ducks found themselves on the wrong side of a 2-1 game yesterday, and now trail the series to the Edmonton Oilers 2-0. Teaford also tweets that the Ducks talked a lot about regaining the puck luck they had against Calgary.
  • Meanwhile, Tim Campbell of NHL.com reports that the Oilers feel they still haven’t played their best hockey of the series yet. In an opinion shared by many, the Ducks have outplayed the Oilers but haven’t been rewarded for their efforts. Edmonton stole the first two games in Anaheim, and have a chance to close things out on home ice, thanks to the heroics of Cam Talbot. Connor McDavid, who has an assist in the series, is “adapting” and “adjusting” to the playoffs Campbell writes. McDavid has been shadowed by Ryan Kesler, and while many feel he’s been phased out as a result, head coach Todd McLellan believes his star player has been just fine, drawing penalties and opening up the ice for his teammates.

Chris Drury Rejects Sabres Interview

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The Buffalo Sabres are apparently still struggling to woo a capable general manager, according to Elliotte Friedman. The New York Rangers Assistant GM – and former Sabre co-captain – Chris Drury, rejected the franchise’s attempts to interview him for the position. Drury had been in charge of player development prior to promotion to AGM, and continuing acting as a liaison for prospects and younger players. His efforts have been widely praised league-wide, as the Rangers acquired and developed wonderful college players over the years, such as Jimmy Vesey and Kevin Hayes. Bill Guerin has already been interviewed by the Sabres, and other candidates will certainly be willing to sit down with Buffalo ownership, considering that only 31 head management positions exist in the league. But this rejection cannot be perceived as a positive sign for an organization that has struggled to find strong, capable leadership. After the Jack Eichel  end-of-season presser, rumors surfaced that the phenom did not want to play next season for  head coach Dan Bylsma (an allegation which was adamantly denied by his agent). The rumor was lent some credibility when both the coaching and general manager were quickly dismissed thereafter.

Owner Terry Pegula will now be hunting for his 5th different coach since taking ownership of the franchise in 2011 – coincidentally, the same year that Buffalo last made the playoffs. Buffalo has struggled to attract high end talent, whether it be players or staff. The organization had been rejected by Mike Babcock in favor of Toronto when they offered the legendary coach an opportunity. Bylsma was in essence a consolation prize, and his poor overall record in Bufffalo did nothing to alleviate the memory of the faulty hiring process in the minds of fans. With regards to the GM search, we’ve heard very little chatter around the recently fired Kings’ GM Dean Lombardi in connection to Buffalo, which might be cause for concern. Especially in light of Pegula’s re-assurances that any hires would bring a wealth of experience, it seems as though Pegula is content looking to recently retired NHLers to guide the ship. Although Guerin and Drury have both undoubtedly helped their franchises in different respects (both the Penguins and Rangers are consistent playoff contenders), it seems possible that again Pegula is having to settle for second and third choices.

Whichever GM takes over for the Sabres, they will have their work cut out for them. Although the forward corps is stocked with Eichel, Ryan O’Reilly, Kyle Okposo, Sam Reinhart, and Evander Kane, they still have a need for depth that plays up to capability. Goaltending was no longer at fault this season, and coaches have been swapped out like air filters. If success doesn’t come soon, scrutiny will start to fall more heavily upon ownership. Fans can only endure a rebuild for so long before they expect results.

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