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Snapshots: Vesey Projections, David Jones, Dallas Goalies

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NHL.com’s Rob Vollman looked at previous players in Jimmy Vesey’s position and made some predictions as to how his rookie season and NHL career will play out. The results were somewhat underwhelming, and Rangers fans may want to temper their expectations. Based on the fact that Vesey played in the Eastern Collegiate Athletic Conference (ECAC) while at Harvard, rather than in a more talented conference such as Hockey East, Vollman warns that the numbers will likely not translate as well and there should be early struggles against much stronger competition. For this reason, he believes that 30 points is a reasonable estimation for Vesey in 2016-17. As for his career path, Volmann believes that Vesey has a ceiling of past ECAC scoring forwards like Harvard’s Alex Killorn and Dartmouth’s David Jones. While neither player garnered as much attention as Vesey, and both spent time in the AHL in their first pro season, as opposed to Vesey’s guaranteed NHL play time, Vollman still believes that the college numbers and playing styles make Killorn and Jones accurate comparisons. For those (Rangers fans) who disagree with those comparisons, they could be much worse. Even the most prolific ECAC scorers don’t generally end up as NHL regulars. Killorn has 138 points in 272 NHL games thus far in his four-year career, and Jones had 126 points in 272 games with the Colorado Avalanche in his first six seasons. Both had multiple seasons of around 40 points at their peak. However, Jones peak has since passed and Killorn’s is yet to be determined, but at 23 already and with a lot of tread on the tires, it doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility that Vesey could be done with his 40 point seasons and on his way down the other side of the production peak in just five or six short years.

  • Speaking of David Jones… no one is really speaking of David Jones. It’s been all quiet on the free agency front for the 32-year-old winger this summer. After being linked to the New York Islanders early on in July, there has since been little news. 2015-16 was a forgettable season for the power forward, as he put up only 18 points while splitting the season between the Calgary Flames and Minnesota Wild. Vesey may project to have a similar career arc to him, but Jones is not the player he was just a few years ago. However, just one year before had scored 30 points for the Flames, and at his best with the Colorado Avalanche was a force in the crease and a consistent 20-goal scorer. Jones seems likely to be a PTO candidate or perhaps even get a late one-year deal for the upcoming season, as his size and strength still remain, but he has simply lost his scoring touch and needs to get back on track. If the NHL free agent market heats up, Jones name may resurface.
  • Don’t expect any free agent fireworks from the Dallas Stars. The Stars are happy with their depth and talent at all positions, except for goalie, and NBC Sports’ Jason Brough writes  that the goalie tandem is not about to change. Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi struggled last season, and never was that more apparent than in the postseason, when the duo almost single-handedly eliminated Dallas from the playoffs. At a combined cap hit of $10.4MM and a league-low .904 save percentage, many thought that something had to change for the Star’s net-minding situation this off-season. However, neither goalie was bought out or to this point traded. It looks as if the tandem will both be donning their green sweaters to start the season after all. Brough says that this close to the season, GM Jim Nill has little that he can do. There is no market for a goalie upgrade and no one is out looking to acquire either of the goalies he already has either. It appears as if Lehtonen and Niemi will be given a second chance in 2016-17, at least until they force Nill’s hand into making a move.

 

Snapshots: Vesey, Rangers, Sabres

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The New York Post’s Brett Cyrgalis and Ryan Lazo write that if other teams or fans are waiting for an apology from the Rangers regarding their signing Jimmy Vesey, they’ll be waiting for awhile. Cyrgalis and Lazo detail the chase of Vesey as well as the reaction of Rangers general manager Jeff Gorton once he saw Vesey’s number on his caller ID. Said Gorton via the Post:

I was glad to see the caller ID and the Boston number, so I hurried to answer it. When he said, ‘Hi, it’s Jimmy Vesey. I made my decision and I’d like to come to New York,’ I can’t remember exactly what I did, but I probably had a pretty exciting comeback for him. Probably can’t say it in public.” 

Meanwhile the duo writes that it can’t be predicted what impact Vesey will have immediately, but his friendships with Kevin Hayes and Chris Kreider will ease his transition to the NHL game. The more interesting part of the article is noting how players like Hayes and Vesey, spurning the teams that drafted them, could give future teams caution in drafting up and coming college players. Of all the people involved, Lazo and Cyrgalis write that Nashville general manager David Poile has every right to feel burned, but that could be more the norm, than the exception with college players. At least Poile was able to salvage a third round pick for Vesey.

A little about that team who traded the third round pick for Vesey’s rights:

  • Sabres fans angry about the Jimmy Vesey outcome are certainly justified, but WKBW’s Matt Bove writes that Buffalo will be just fine without the Hobey Baker Trophy winner. Between Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhardt, and Ryan O’Reilly just to name  a few, Bove reports that Sabres fans have an awful lot to be excited for in the 2016-17 season. Despite being in a rebuild, Bove notes that the team will continue to grow together and that fans should definitely be ready to tune in for playoff games, perhaps as early as this upcoming season.

Vesey Talks About His Decision To Sign With New York

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Now that the Jimmy Vesey sweepstakes have concluded, he took some time to talk about why he chose New York over the other teams interested in his services.

Nick Cotsonika tweeted many of the quotes from the media teleconference that Vesey held following the announcement Friday evening. From Twitter Cotsonika reported that:

  • Why the Rangers? Vesey said it was a tough decision, but he was impressed with the Rangers and New York was somewhere he could play.
  • Vesey said the thing that jumped out was that the Rangers seemed to really want him.
  • Vesey confirmed he met with seven teams, plus Buffalo prior to this week.
  • Asked about celebrity tweets, Vesey said they were “pretty funny” and “pretty cool.” He confirmed a couple celebrities were in a NYR video.
  • When asked about the entire process, Costonika tweets that Vesey replied: “It definitely took on a life of it’s own. I’m not sure me or anyone else expected that.”

Out of all these quotes, the one that might raise eyebrows is the one about the Rangers “really wanting him” as opposed to the six other teams vying for his attention. In a salary cap world where every team is on an even playing field, and in this case, where said teams were restricted to offering the same amount of money, how could New York possibly stand out from other teams? Pittsburgh sent Crosby. The Blackhawks included Patrick Kane and a slew of recent championships to boast of. What else could it have been?

For one, Vesey added that the Rangers were a fit where he could “plug in right away” according to another tweet from Cotsonika. Stephen Whyno tweets that Vesey called the Madison Square Garden the “greatest arena in the world.” Joe McDonald adds that Chris Drury made “a big impression” when pitching him on playing in the Big Apple. Newsday’s Steve Zipay confirms this tweeting that Alain Vigneault also had a hand in making his mind up. Whyno tweets that Vesey’s lifelong friendship with Kevin Hayes and help throughout the process certainly contributed. Finally, Rangers general manager Jeff Gorton confirmed that Vesey shores up a big hole at forward.

Much like the free agent chase of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, a coveted free agent appears to be signed for two main reasons: need and friendship. Before the Cap, it would have been a handful of teams–maybe three powerhouses of the time like Detroit, New Jersey, Colorado, that would have had the upper hand to gain the services of Vesey. The change shows that parity does rule and it certainly takes more than star power and Stanley Cup rings to secure the services of a coveted free agent.

On Vesey’s comment regarding the process, McDonald tweets that Vesey is glad it’s over.  It seems there are many who share that sentiment.

Make sure you check out the updated New York Rangers depth chart.

Potential 2016-17 Impact Rookies: Aho, Bjorkstrand, Werenski, Buchnevich

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It seems we’ve spent most of the offseason talking about Jimmy Vesey and pondering which of his many suitors would ultimately be fortunate enough to add him to their ranks. That chase is finally over with the New York Rangers coming out on top in their efforts to land the prized UFA forward from Harvard. Whether or not Vesey performs up to the high expectations all of the summer hype would suggest remains to be seen, of course, but this saga serves as a reminder of just how much teams value young talent on entry-level deals.

With the salary cap – or in some cases, internal budgets – forcing teams to allow quality veteran pieces to depart each summer in search of a bigger pay day, teams need young players to step in and fill roles vacated by experienced players. The CBA limits how much a player can earn on their ELC thus allowing clubs more freedom to spend lavishly on star players as long as they have enough young talent to balance out their budgets. By virtue of his status as an UFA limited to signing an ELC, Vesey has understandably garnered an unusually high level of attention for a soon-to-be first year player but he won’t be the only rookie expected to make a near immediate impact with his team in 2016-17.

In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile first-year players who will have an opportunity to step in right away and fill a potentially critical role for their team. Today we start in the Metro Division. (Note: In an effort to keep these posts relatively short, some divisions may be covered in multiple posts).

Sebastian Aho (Carolina) – Aho was the Hurricanes second-round choice in the 2015 draft out of Finland and signed his ELC with the club in June. He led his Liiga team (Finland’s top professional league), Karpat, in scoring in 2015-16 tallying 20 goals and 45 points in 45 games. Aho also has achieved remarkable success representing his home country at both the 2016 IIHF World Championships and the 2016 World Juniors. He recorded seven points for the silver medal winning Finns at the World Championships while averaging two points per game – 14 in seven contests – in helping Finland win gold at the Juniors tournament.

It would seem given his performances on some of the biggest stages in the sport that Aho should be ready for the NHL game. Count Hurricanes GM Ron Francis among those who believe Aho can contribute in Carolina immediately.

“Sebastian is regarded as one of the top prospects in hockey and is ready to begin his North American career. He had a tremendous season as an 18-year-old playing against men in Finland’s top league, and was outstanding in international competitions including the recent World Championship. He will play an important role for the Hurricanes moving forward.”

Carolina’s depth chart on Roster Resource lists Aho as the team’s third right wing and given Francis’ quotes, it seems probable he will be given every opportunity to become a key contributor right out of the gate. The Hurricanes have an excellent young blue line but need help up front if they wish to challenge for the playoffs. Aho’s skills and playmaking abilities would be a welcome addition to Carolina’s forward ranks.

Oliver Bjorkstrand (Columbus) – Danish forward Oliver Bjorkstrand proved he was ready for a prime time role with the Blue Jackets during an impressive playoff run as a member of the Lake Erie Monsters, Columbus’ AHL affiliate. The Monsters lost just one game en route to winning a Calder Cup and Bjorkstrand helped pave the way tallying 10 postseason goals. He was even more prolific in the Calder Cup Finals scoring five times, with three proving to be of the game-winning variety.

His head coach with the Monsters, Jared Bednar, had this to say about Bjorkstrand:

“He has a will to win that’s unparalleled, and that’s why he has always been successful, no matter where he’s been.”

The Blue Jackets have several quality young players that will soon be ready to challenge for NHL roles but Bjorkstrand’s determination and recent postseason success should give him an advantage over his peers at cracking the Columbus lineup. Columbus could theoretically compete for a playoff spot, assuming a return to health and form from goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, along with an improved defense corps. Bjorkstrand should add more skilled depth to the forward group and he could enjoy a productive season if he finds chemistry with the right players.

Zach Werenski (Columbus) – Possibly joining Bjorkstrand in Columbus in time for the 2016-17 season is D Zach Werenski. Werenski, the team’s first round pick in 2015, eighth overall, played two seasons at the University of Michigan prior to signing his ELC last spring. He would see action in seven AHL regular season games, scoring one goal, before embarking on an excellent playoff run. In 17 postseason contests, Werenski tallied five goals and 14 points in helping the Monsters to the Calder Cup.

Werenski already boasts NHL size at 6-foot-2 and 209 pounds and adds tremendous skating ability as well as poise under pressure. Even after the addition of rising star Seth Jones via a mid-season trade with Nashville and the presence of Ryan Murray, Werenski has an excellent shot to break training camp with the big club. If Werenski develops as expected, the Blue Jackets could quickly transform their blue line from one of the league’s worst to one of the best in relatively short order.

Pavel Buchnevich (New York Rangers) – Vesey isn’t the only rookie the Rangers will likely be welcoming to the lineup for the 2016-17 season. Pavel Buchnevich, the team’s top prospect and a 2013 third round choice, elected to make the jump to North America and signed his ELC this past spring. While skating in the KHL, widely considered the second best league in the word behind the NHL, Buchnevich tallied a respectable 37 points in 58 regular season games.

To put those numbers in a bit of perspective, Rob Vollman in the Hockey Abstract has constructed a predictive chart to convert offensive numbers from one league to another based primarily on historical data involving players appearing in both leagues and how they’ve fared moving from one to the other. Buchnevich’s points-per-game ratio in the KHL projects to be roughly the equivalent of a 40-point campaign in the NHL based on Vollman’s chart. That’s pretty solid for a 20-year-old player.

The Rangers wouldn’t seem to need much of an offensive boost after finishing seventh in the NHL in goal scoring and returning much of their top-six forward talent – excepting of course the swap of Derick Brassard for Mika Zibanejad – but Alain Vigneault tends to use his third line as much or more than most NHL head coaches. That should allow for a rookie with the skill and ability of Buchnevich to earn quality ice time while also shielding him from the tougher match-ups.

 

Rangers Sign Jimmy Vesey

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5:22pm: ESPN’s Joe McDonald reports that it’s a two-year, entry level contract. This would mean the base value is $925K, and that the total value with bonuses could be as high as $2.85MM.

5:06pm: The Rangers have confirmed the signing via Twitter.

4:56pm: TSN’s Bob McKenzie is reporting via Twitter that free agent forward Jimmy Vesey has signed with the New York Rangers. Vesey, 23, had been recruited heavily by NHL teams. Teams reported to have expressed interest included the Hurricanes, Blue Jackets, Flyers, and Penguins. Reported finalists for Vesey included the Blackhawks, Islanders, Maple Leafs, Penguins, Devils, and Bruins. The Sabres had previously owned his rights, owing to a draft-day trade with the Nashville Predataors. Those rights expired this week, and Vesey became a free agent.

This brings to an end the off-season’s longest drama. Vesey originally became a subject of speculation when reports suggested he had planned to hold out until free agency rather than sign with the Predators, who drafted him. Many early reports named the Maple Leafs, who employ his father, and drafted his brother, or his hometown Bruins as likely favorites. In the end, the New York Rangers, spoken about little throughout this process, come away the winners.

Vesey, a left winger, had 24 goals and 46 points in 33 games for Harvard this year. In 2015, he put up even stronger numbers, scoring 32 goals and 58 points in 37 games for the Crimson. It is widely assumed he will play in the NHL right away.

Contract terms have not yet been released, but it is widely believed to be the maximum contract given to this kind of rookie. That would make it a two-year contract.

The Vesey Watch Is Coming To An End

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This morning one of the most trusted names in hockey journalism finally gave us what we’ve been waiting for – an end.  Bob McKenzie of TSN chimed in on the Jimmy Vesey situation for the first time, to tell us that it is coming to and end today, probably. While McKenzie says it may stretch until Saturday, it will go no further than that. Andrew Gross of The Record also hears that it’ll end today, as does Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News.

Arthur Staple of Newsday gives us the latest update on the finalists; he’s heard that it’s down to the New York Rangers and Chicago Blackhawks, noting that the Islanders made a strong push but fell short.

An amazing amount of proverbial and literal ink has been spilled over the free agency of Vesey, more than most prospects get in their entire amateur careers. Now, with it coming to an end, Vesey will have to start performing immediately or risk the ire of an entire fanbase.

If the Harvard grad struggles, like many prospects before him, he’ll be met with songs of “all that for this guy?” at his home arena and “over-hyped” will be firmly entrenched beside his name in the program. But for all the hype that the media (including PHR) has created, Vesey is none to blame. He’s done nothing but exercise his rights under the current CBA, just as other players have done in the last few days.

Three things have made it into a media whirlwind though: the lack of other hockey news in August, the uncertainty of the level of college hockey in the USA when compared to other amateur leagues, and the relatively poor free agent market after its biggest name re-signed before July 1.

Obviously, as any other year, August is one of the slowest months for hockey news.  Teams have built their core, and are waiting for training camp to open. While many fringe free agents remain unsigned, the meat has been almost completely stripped from the bone.

The NCAA still proves to be a hard league to create equivalents from. Because the league has such a spread of talent, and has only started to become respected as a strong development option in the last couple of decades, fans and media alike aren’t sure exactly how to examine base statistics.

In the CHL, it’s common to see top prospects crack 100 points and dominate in their draft year. But the college ranks play less games, and require more of their athletes outside of hockey – indeed, Vesey will graduate with a degree from Harvard University, and to put it in his own words: “College is an ultrastressful environment — we’re balancing school, hockey, internships, our social lives and so many other things.” The fact is that the Frozen Four isn’t as well covered as the Memorial Cup (the CHL championship) is in Canada, and that many fans have never even seen a college hockey game, and they’re just not sure what Vesey really is.

What he isn’t, though, is Steven Stamkos. When Steve Yzerman pulled the unthinkable and re-signed his superstar centerman just prior to him becoming a free agent, the summer lost its biggest story. All of a sudden the best free agent in history was off the market, and we were left with an unspectacular group (despite the amount of money that was spent on it). Vesey represents the unknown, and for at least a handful of teams (a group similar to the ones reportedly “in” on Stamkos) another chance to land the summer’s biggest fish.

Vesey Update: 8/18/16

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As reported earlier, free agent Jimmy Vesey met with seven teams today as he continues to deliberate where he will sign. The Boston Bruins, Chicago Blackhawks, New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders, New York Rangers, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Toronto Maple Leafs have joined the Buffalo Sabres on the not-so-short short list of teams that Vesey is officially considering. ESPN’s Joe McDonald learned that no decision will be made today, as Vesey will sit down with agent Peter Fish and other representation, family members, and advisors tonight to discuss options. A decision is expected Friday or Saturday.

There is no clear clubhouse leader among the teams in consideration so far. As could be expected, all of Vesey’s meetings over the past few days were reportedly “great”. Teams can only sway the Hobey Baker winner with their pitches of play time, team success, organizational culture, and more, as Vesey’s contract will be locked in at an entry-level $925K plus bonuses no matter where he chooses to play.

McDonald reports that star power has been in full effect thus far, with Patrick Kane, John Tavares, Cory Schneider, and several Bruins among those in attendance at Vesey’s meetings in Boston. Sidney Crosby has also reportedly reached out, and friends of Vesey’s like Jack Eichel and brothers Jimmy and Kevin Hayes have likely been in his ear all summer.

Those with an inside source within the Vesey meetings and mullings have not been shy about reporting their thoughts. Sportsnet’s Howard Berger says not to be surprised if Vesey signs with the Maple Leafs, but also warns that Buffalo is very much still in the mix. Mike Grinnel of ESPN New Hampshire confirms the theory of colleague Jimmy Murphy that the New Jersey Devils are leading the chase. DJ Bean of Boston’s WEEI hears that the Bruins excelled in their meeting with Vesey and are still considered major contenders, counter to cross-town rival Joe Haggerty of CSN New England who said that Boston is all but out. Many have become skeptical of the Penguins ability to sign Vesey, having just re-signed Matt Cullen and reportedly having reached an agreement with another college free agent, Notre Dame’s Thomas DiPauli. All is quiet on the NYC front as well, with both the Islanders and Rangers considered strong contenders, but little chatter to support either’s position. Perhaps the most accurate “insider information” out there is the Chicago Tribune’s Chris Kruc’s take on Vesey and the Blackhawks, that they are just waiting for a decision from the Harvard star and that no known pecking order is in place.

With all of the noise out there about Jimmy Vesey and his destination, the best move for those following along with the storyline is to sit back and relax. A decision will come in the next couple of days, and no reports by Vesey’s sources (who have been all over the place thus far) will make any difference until the ink has dried on his first contract. In the end, one team will emerge triumphant, and our attention will turn to the seven who lost out and may look for additional scoring support before the start of the new season. Until then, #VeseyWatch rolls on.

 

Vesey Sweepstakes Reportedly Down To Seven Teams

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Update (4:30pm): Make that eight teams. Obviously the Buffalo Sabres are still very much in the mix, but were omitted from the original report because they were not one of the seven teams who met with Vesey today. The Sabres have had months to negotiate with the Hobey Baker winner, after acquiring his rights from the Nashville Predators, but Vesey’s plan has always been to test free agency and hear the pitches of other interested teams. This does not mean that Buffalo is out of the running as a possible destination, only that Vesey has heard their pitch many times and is now considering what other teams have to say as well. It’s eight teams right now, which is hardly narrowing it down, but the next 24 hours should be telling as #VeseyWatch continues.

ESPN’s Joe McDonald reports that the Jimmy Vesey sweepstakes are down to seven finalists. The Blackhawks, Bruins, Devils, Islanders, Maple Leafs, Penguins, and Rangers are all listed as having a shot at the highly sought after winger from Harvard. Five of these teams were previously listed among our own speculative favorites for Vesey, with the Penguins and Islanders making a recent push.

This report would seem to suggest that other teams rumored to have interest, such as the Red Wings, Flyers, Hurricanes, and Blue Jackets, were unable to convince Vesey to join them.

With the exception of the Blackhawks, these are all Eastern Conference teams. Fully half the Metropolitan Division, whose pitches we discussed here, are among the seven finalists. While our above linked preview of Vesey’s free agency discussed what some teams have to offer, the Penguins and Islanders are certainly attractive situations themselves. The Islanders would likely give Vesey an opportunity to play with John Tavares, while beginning his career in New York City. Vesey’s agent, Peter Fish, has spoken positively about the lure of playing in New York. The Penguins on the other hand are the defending Stanley Cup champions, and would give Vesey a very high likelihood of playing regularly with one of Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin. It’s never a bad thing to get to start your career on a line with a veteran superstar.

The Vesey camp says that a decision will not come today.

Metro Notes: Vesey, Lambert, Penguins, Flyers

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The Metropolitan Division seems like ground zero for the Jimmy Vesey sweepstakes. The free agent forward out of Harvard has reportedly received interest from the Devils, Penguins, Islanders, Rangers, Blue Jackets, Hurricanes, and Flyers. Reading through the links, you’ll see that the Flyers and Blue Jackets are not believed to be serious contenders for Vesey, while the Penguins in particular made a strong impression. The Devils have long been considered one of the favorites to sign him, while the Islanders brought along captain John Tavares for the recruitment.

Vesey is said to be holding out until at least Friday to make his final decision. Other teams reportedly pushing for Vesey include the Maple Leafs, Bruins, and Blackhawks. For all our coverage on Vesey’s decision, click here. For more notes from around the Metropolitan Division, keep reading here.

  • Sportsnet’s John Shannon reports that Capitals assistant coach Lane Lambert is among the candidates to take over the Colorado Avalanche head coaching job. Lambert has spent the last two years in Washington under head coach Barry Trotz, and was previously his assistant for four years in Nasvhille.
  • The Wheeling Nailers have signed on for two more years as the Penguins’ ECHL affiliate. The Nailers, based out of West Virginia, appeared in last year’s Kelly Cup Finals, before losing in six games to the Allen Americans. Strangely enough, the Americans are affiliated with the San Jose Sharks, who the Penguins beat in last year’s Stanley Cup Finals.
  • The Flyers have hired Dr. Ben Peterson as their Director of Sports Science. SB Nation’s Flyers site has a rundown of Peterson’s credentials, as obtained from his Linkedin page. It’s some pretty heavy stuff, and given his experience, he appears to go far beyond the data-based analysis that’s easily found online.

John Gilmour Signs With New York Rangers

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Amid all the Jimmy Vesey discussion, the New York Rangers have signed another NCAA standout. According to Mark Divver of the Providence Journal, John Gilmour, a defenseman out of Providence College has agreed to a two-year deal with the club.

Gilmour, 23, was originally drafted by the Calgary Flames in 2013 but, like Vesey, decided to play four years in college and became a free agent. He was part of the 2015 national champions after defeating Jack Eichel-led Boston University in the final.

Playing in 141 games over his four years, Gilmour scored 65 points including 23 goals. We recently profiled Gilmour when we listed him at #3 on our list of top college free agents, behind just Vesey and Thomas DiPauli, the latter of which was reported earlier today to be in talks with six different teams.

[Related: New York Rangers’ Depth Chart]

The Rangers weren’t going to wait around to dip their toes into the college ranks, and with Gilmour add a young, mobile defenseman to a group that isn’t seen as such. Gilmour will try to crack the roster this year, but may have trouble because of the big deals sitting on their blueline.

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