Looking Ahead To P.K. Subban’s Impending Free Agency
Despite relatively low fanfare, one of hockey’s biggest names is set to be become an unrestricted free agent this summer. New Jersey Devils defenseman P.K. Subban will become a UFA for the first time in his career, having just finished the final year of an eight-year, $72MM contract that carried a $9MM AAV. Subban signed that contract with the Montreal Canadiens prior to the start of the 2014-15 season, but would only play two of the eight years with Montreal before being dealt to the Nashville Predators. The star defenseman would spend three seasons in Nashville, making a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2017, but was again traded to New Jersey in 2019.
A former Norris Trophy winner, Subban is no longer the player he was in Montreal and Nashville, trailing off in production the past few seasons. From 2012-13 (his Norris season) through 2017-18, Subban averaged 58 points per 82 games played, including a career-high of 60 in 2014-15. However, since the start of the 2018-19 season, Subban’s production has been cut, quite literally, in half, averaging just 29 points per 82 games played. Though Subban was never regarded as elite defensively, he’s also seen his struggles in his own end too in recent years. Most notably, during the same 2012-13 through 2017-18 stretch, the defenseman compiled a plus-43 rating in 422 games, which dropped to a near-opposite minus-40 in a far fewer 252 games.
Having just turned 33-years-old, and with the previous four years of regression, Subban is very unlikely to come anywhere close to his previous contract, but it’s not to say he won’t have interest this offseason or a shortage of places to play next season. The veteran has appeared to establish himself as a well-liked leader in an incredibly young Devils locker room and still possesses the big shot and physical ability that made him one of the elite defenders of the 2010’s. Subban could find himself as an important piece on a competitive team which can limit his exposure and utilize him in favorable matchups; perhaps a team that already has solid defensive depth, but is missing the offensive upside from the blueline that Subban does provide. One comparison to this end could be how the Edmonton Oilers have used Tyson Barrie, who posted two strong seasons after a rough 2019-20 with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
As mentioned, Subban is surely not going to find himself with a $9MM AAV this offseason, but he will have opportunities. What his next contract looks like is very much a mystery, however. One possibility could be to follow in the footsteps of defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk. Though Shattenkirk doesn’t have as impressive of a track record as Subban, he did find himself as a UFA after two down seasons with the New York Rangers, having been bought out after two years of a four-year, $26.6MM contract. The path Shattenkirk chose was to sign a one-year, $1.75MM contract with the Tampa Bay Lightning for the 2019-20 season, where he would rebound, admittedly not to his past standard, but enough to earn a three-year, $11.7MM contract with the Anaheim Ducks the very next offseason.
Returning to Barrie, he utilized a very similar strategy, signing a one-year, $3.75MM deal for the 2020-21 season with Edmonton, rebounding and earning a three-year, $13.5MM extension with the Oilers. Perhaps Subban could sign a low-value deal in a well-suited role to rebuild his value in hopes of finding a favorable multi-year deal next offseason.
A multi-year deal this offseason at a (reasonably) higher salary isn’t necessarily off the table for Subban, however his options to combine this offer with an ability to compete for a Stanley Cup could be more limited. Considering the current flat-cap and Subban’s age and recent regression, competitive teams will have to budget carefully and taking on a player like Subban who could be considered a bit of a “project,” may not necessarily be a move a team like that would be keen on making.
If Subban does sign a multi-year contract this offseason, ones like Shattenkirk’s with Anaheim, Barrie’s extension with Edmonton, or even Jack Johnson‘s five-year, $16.25MM contract that he signed with the Pittsburgh Penguins prior to the 2018-19 season, could be strong comparisons. It is worth noting though, that both Shattenkirk and Barrie played their one-year “rebuilding seasons” at age 29, and Johnson was 31 when he signed his long-term contract in Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, Subban turned 33 this week.
Regardless of how Subban pursues his first trip to unrestricted free agency, he should still have a market that offers him several options considering the skills and value he brings on and off the ice. With his previous status as an elite defenseman, his recent regression, and still being regarded as one of the game’s most marketable stars no matter his on-ice performance, his free agency is sure to be intriguing.
Update On Chicago Blackhawks Goaltending
Now that the draft lottery gave the Chicago Blackhawks some clarity on their draft pick situation, Chicago’s front office’s focus can now shift to their offseason plans more earnestly. With new GM Kyle Davidson set to pursue a full rebuild of the team, there are many items on his offseason to-do list that he’ll need to consider. Perhaps the most immediately pressing on-ice issue is the situation of the team’s goaltending.
The Blackhawks were not a strong team this season, and the performances of their goalies reflected that, especially after the mid-season trade of Marc-Andre Fleury. The Blackhawks used four goalies this season, and Fleury’s .908 save percentage in 45 games made him the only member of the four-person group to post above a .900 mark. Kevin Lankinen regressed from his strong rookie-season form and turned in an .891 save percentage, 3.50 goals-against-average performance in 32 games of work. That regression left question marks about his future in Chicago. Lankinen is a pending unrestricted free agent, and Mark Lazerus and Scott Powers of The Athletic (subscription link) reported that a source said that Lankinen and the Blackhawks “have not begun negotiations” on a potential contract extension.
With that report in mind, an important question is brought up: If Davidson views next season as one where player development is prioritized over winning as many games as possible, (and that certainly seems to be the case) is trusting Lankinen the best route to take? The Blackhawks are a team looking to get younger and develop their young players. Maintaining young players’ confidence levels is an important aspect of player development, and there are few things that can damage a young team’s confidence in a single game more than unreliable goaltending, especially for young defensemen.
When asked about the team’s goaltending situation, Davidson seemed to acknowledge that looking to bring in outside help might be the best option for his team to weather what most expect to be a difficult 2022-23 season. Davidson said:
We definitely need to bring some NHL contracts in. Kevin and Collin are part of that discussion, they’re not out of that candidate list, but there’s some players that we’ll look at in free agency and see which direction we want to go, not ruling out the trade market either.
This summer’s crop of free-agent goaltenders holds some promise for the team, but their direction as an openly rebuilding club could stand in the way of any major acquisitions. Headliners Darcy Kuemper and Jack Campbell seem unlikely for that reason, and a reunion with Fleury is also highly unlikely. Perhaps Davidson could go in a direction similar to Detroit GM Steve Yzerman last summer, when Yzerman pounced on the opportunity to acquire a young goalie coming off of a breakout season, landing 2021 Calder Finalist Alex Nedeljkovic from the Hurricanes. There are some intriguing breakout names on the market for Davidson to pursue, such as St. Louis’ Ville Husso and Dallas’ Scott Wedgewood.
Regardless of whatever direction they choose to go in net, it’s clear that the Blackhawks are unsettled at the game’s most important position. Given all of the factors that go into choosing a goaltender, though, it’s likely that Davidson’s choice of netminder will help clarify exactly what his front office’s intentions are for the near future of this team.
Pictures courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Latest On Filip Forsberg
It was another disappointing exit for Filip Forsberg and the Nashville Predators, losing in the first round for the fourth season in a row. The 27-year-old is now facing a career-defining decision as his offseason begins and free agency approaches. Forsberg will be an unrestricted free agent in July after spending his entire NHL career to this point in a Predators jersey, and didn’t give up much when he spoke to reporters yesterday about the situation:
I’ve said that since day one, the goal is to come back here. And the business side is completely different than the on-ice side, as you guys are aware of, and just kind of have to wait and see and play it out. There has been obviously some progression throughout the season from where we started in September, and me and my agent and David and Brian and the management. There’s going to be an ongoing conversation in the process, and we’ll just have to see where we end up.
You couldn’t script a better regular season to be negotiating on the back of, as Forsberg set career highs with 42 goals and 84 points, all in just 69 games. With so much of his production coming at even-strength (32 goals), there’s likely no limit to the number of teams that could insert him into a lineup and receive a huge offensive boost. With the Predators out, the countdown is on until Forsberg and his representatives get a chance to talk with the rest of the league.
After a decade in Nashville, Forsberg has always maintained that his desire is to stay with the organization that traded for him all those years ago but there have been at least some signs to point to the possibility of him leaving. Namely, the organization quickly worked out multi-year extensions with Mattias Ekholm, Mikael Granlund, and Juuse Saros last summer, deals that eat up quite a bit of cap space moving forward. With Matt Duchene, Ryan Johansen, and Roman Josi also on the books for a combined $25MM per season, it’s not like there is a ton of room to fit in another huge contract.
Still, it’s hard to imagine the Predators offensive attack without Forsberg in the middle of it. He became the franchise leader in goals this season, passing David Legwand in 400 fewer games, and he sits 14th in the entire league since his rookie season. That history–especially buoyed by his exceptional 2021-22 campaign–is going to make Forsberg able to demand a substantial raise on the $6MM he has earned in each of the last six years, and a long-term deal to go with it.
Another thing to remember, and something that potentially could affect negotiations, is general manager David Poile’s aversion to giving out no-trade clauses. The only player on the Nashville roster that holds one is captain Roman Josi, and Forsberg has seen the lack of trade protection play out in recent years with the departures of Viktor Arvidsson and Ryan Ellis. There’s almost no doubt that he could secure a full no-movement clause elsewhere if he decides to test the market later this summer.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Minor Transactions: 05/08/22
Half of the NHL is in the playoffs and focused on little else. The other half of the league has turned their attention to the offseason, but are limited in what they can actually do before the NHL Draft and free agency. However, for nearly every other league in the world, it is a busy time. The KHL, Liiga, and Swiss National League have all wrapped up their seasons and started offseason activities, and the SHL is at most two games from joining them. Closer to home, as CHL seasons come to an end in the playoffs, AHL rosters are being supplemented by assignments and amateur tryouts. NCAA programs are also finalizing their rosters for next season, some in response to pro signings. So while transactions may seem like a non-issue in the NHL right now, there is plenty going on elsewhere:
- Cole Spicer, a member of the USNTDP and the silver medal-winning U.S. entry into the U-18 World Juniors, has finally landed on a new destination for his collegiate career. Spicer had recently decommitted from the University of North Dakota and Matt Wellens of the The Rink Live reports that he will instead play for a NCHC rival. Spicer has committed to the University of Minnesota-Duluth and will join the Bulldogs next season. Spicer will now play alongside USNTDP teammate and presumptive 2022 first-round pick Isaac Howard at UMD, whereas no one from the program’s graduating class is headed to North Dakota now. Though Spicer is a step behind compared to an extraordinarily talented USNTDTP group this year, expected to go in the fourth round or later rather than the first two rounds, he was still a key contributor to the team and a prospect to watch moving forward.
- Niko Huuhtanen, a seventh-round selection of the Tampa Bay Lightning last year, is getting his first taste of the pro level to end the year. The Bolts’ AHL affiliate, the Syracuse Crunch, have announced that Huuhtanen has signed an ATO with the team for the remainder of the season. The Finnish product is having quite the first season in North America; after recording 37 goals and 77 points in 65 games with the WHL’s Everett Silvertips, Huuhtanen is now getting a shot in the AHL less than a year after he nearly went undrafted, taken with the very last pick of the 2021 Draft. The power forward could be yet another late-round find by Tampa. The Crunch have also added undrafted defenseman Tyson Feist on an ATO. The 21-year-old captain of the WHL’s Kelowna Rockets just wrapped up his junior career by scoring more points (39) in 65 games this season than he did in his first four WHL seasons combined. The Lightning want to see if he has what it takes to continue on to the pro level.
- When Helsinki-based club Jokerit backed out of the KHL playoffs and later announced they would be leaving the league altogether, the expectation was that they would be returning to the Finnish Liiga next season. However, no such official decision has been made and with the Liiga now in offseason mode, a pair of notable Jokerit forwards have decided to move elsewhere. SC Rapperswil-Jona has announced that both Nicklas Jensen and Jordan Schroeder have signed two-year deals with the team. Playing on a Jokerit roster filled with former and future NHLers, Jensen and Schroeder ranked first and third respectively in goals and second and third respectively in points. The former Jokers are expected to fill those same top-line roles with the Lakers for the next two years and should be even more productive in the Liiga. Both first-round picks of yesteryear, Jensen and Schroeder combine for less than 200 NHL games between them, but have found their place as top scorers in Europe.
- Usually when the KHL rights of active NHL players are traded, there is information informing the value of those rights. With that in mind, pay attention to Russian netminder Alexei Melnichuk this offseason. HC Sochi and SKA St. Petersburg have made a deal in which the rights to forward Ivan Morozov and goaltender Mikhail Berdin were sent to SKA, while Melnichuk’s rights are headed to Sochi, the club announced. Seeing as Morozov just signed with the Vegas Golden Knights two weeks ago and Berdin is signed through next season with the Winnipeg Jets and to a one-way deal no less, the only player whose rights could reasonably have value in 2022-23 is Melnichuk. An impending restricted free agent, the 23-year-old Melnichuk is not having the season he expected after making his NHL debut with the San Jose Sharks last year. Rather than gain more of a role in the Sharks’ organization, Melnichuk played exclusively in the AHL this year before he was traded to the Tampa Bay Lightning at the deadline, who have kept him in the ECHL ever since. Melnichuk put up stellar numbers in the KHL at a young age before jumping to North America and there could be a strong draw to return given his recent usage and results. On the other side, though Berdin has long been committed to playing in North America and Morozov is an up-and-coming prospect who hopes to have a long NHL career, St. Petersburg certainly added the vastly superior talent in the deal and will be happy to cash in if either player ever return to Russia.
Anton Stralman Hopes To Continue Playing, Open To Arizona Reunion
In talking with Jose Romero of Arizona Central Sports, Arizona Coyotes defenseman Anton Stralman emphasized his desire to continue playing, adding that he is open to returning to the Coyotes (link). Stralman, who just finished the final year of a three-year, $16.5MM contract that he signed with the Florida Panthers prior to the 2019-20 season, was traded this past offseason to Arizona in what amounted to a salary cap dump, with Arizona also receiving a second-round pick and prospect Vladislav Kolyachonok in exchange for just a seventh-round pick.
The veteran defenseman told Romero that he came to the Coyotes hoping to prove he could still play in the NHL, and he believes he did that this season. It would be hard to disagree with Stralman’s assessment of his season, as the 35-year-old turned in a 23 point campaign over 74 games, the most points he has had since 2015-16, combining that with steady defense and veteran leadership on a young and rebuilding Coyotes team. He may not be the player he was when he helped lead the New York Rangers and Tampa Bay Lightning in consistently deep playoff runs between 2012 and 2018, but Stralman has shown this season that he still has something to offer.
As a free agent for the first time since 2019, it’s hard to say what Stralman’s next contract could look like, or what kind of team would pursue him. It’s unlikely he would get more than a year or two max given his age and recent decline, however given his presumptive affordability, Stralman could parlay his free agency into an inexpensive contract with a team looking for depth and leadership as it pursues a Stanley Cup. On the other hand, Stralman could maximize his potential, signing with a team that is looking for leadership for its young players as they rebuild, trying also to hit the salary cap floor, such as a reunion with Arizona.
As for Arizona, it’s not insignificant that Stralman would want to return. The Coyotes are slated to play their home games at Arizona State University next season in a much smaller arena, not necessarily desirable for NHL play. Having a veteran like Stralman, who also has the option to retire or perhaps chase a Stanley Cup, express desire to stay with the team through an uncertain time, in an odd situation, and during a rebuild, speaks to the upsides of the organization from a player’s perspective.
Looking At Phil Kessel’s Impending Free Agency
Earlier in the week, PHR’s own Ethan Hetu covered the situation surrounding the pending free agency of Carolina Hurricanes forwards Vincent Trocheck and Max Domi. Now, however, we pivot to the Western Conference, turning the magnifying glass on Arizona Coyotes veteran (and two-time Stanley Cup champion) Phil Kessel. Arizona opting to not move Kessel for a return at this year’s Trade Deadline surprised many. The NHL’s now-resident iron man has a respectable 52 points in 81 games this year on a Coyotes team that’s put up just 202 goals on the season, the worst such number in the NHL, and that wasn’t due to a crazy post-deadline bump in production. Now, after the eight-year contract extension he signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2013 expires this offseason, the 34-year-old could hit the open market for the first time in his NHL career.
The bottom line remains that the Coyotes need NHL forwards next season. While their situation for 2022-23 has improved slightly after the acquisitions of young forwards Jack McBain and Nathan Smith, it’s unlikely that both of them (especially McBain) are ready for full-time NHL roles as soon as this fall. With the team surely a no-go destination for most of the NHL’s free-agent pool due to their arena situation, it’s not too far out of left field to assume Arizona’s choice not to move Kessel was influenced by the team’s desire to extend the veteran before he hits the open market.
If Kessel decides though, as he very well could, to join a team with more hype for 2022-23, the market for him should and will likely be there. While Kessel does just have eight goals on the year, his disastrous 4.7 shooting percentage (the lowest figure of his career) offers a compelling explanation for that. He’s not a factor defensively and hasn’t been for a few seasons now, but he remains a skilled and intelligent play-driver as evidenced by his 44 assists on the year. The fact that he’s having his best offensive season in Arizona in the year where he’s had the least talent surrounding him is sure to convince multiple general managers that Kessel still has it in him as a middle-six winger.
One near-perfect past comparable to Kessel’s situation is that of Corey Perry. Bought out a few years ago by the Anaheim Ducks, Perry signed a one-year, $1.5MM contract in Dallas after a career-worst season in Anaheim. He’s managed to continue performing as an extremely valuable depth piece on successful teams, helping provide secondary scoring. Kessel likely fits right into this mold, and could see a similar one- or two-year deal signed this offseason, albeit likely with a higher price tag. Perry had just 10 points the prior season, with Kessel outproducing that by about five times.
While there are multiple younger, flashier options on the market this offseason, they’re also a lot more expensive than Kessel would be. A short-term deal limits the negative implications of the contract if Kessel does enter a steep decline, and his Stanley Cup pedigree is obviously attractive around the league. A cap hit in the $4MM neighborhood seems likely for Kessel on a one- or two-year deal, though it could of course be lower if he opts to take a discount to join a cap-strapped contender. Arizona would likely need to offer more than that number to retain his services if they wish.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Looking At Max Domi’s Impending Free Agency
After taking a look at the upcoming free agency situation of Vincent Trocheck, we now pivot to looking at the future of his Hurricanes teammate, Max Domi. Tonight Domi hit an important milestone in his career: 500 NHL games played. Domi is famously the son of enforcer Tie Domi, who spent the majority of his career with just one team: the Toronto Maple Leafs. The stability that Tie Domi found once he established himself in Toronto is not something Max has managed in his career, and as a pending unrestricted free agent, the second Domi looks set to potentially land on the fifth NHL team of his career despite being just 27 years old.
As we previously mentioned when going over the situation of Trocheck, the Hurricanes already have significant cap dollars tied to their forward corps, (and more specifically their top three centers) and have important extensions to consider down the line. As a result, it is likely that Domi, who arrived in Carolina as part of a buzzer-beating deadline-day trade, is a pure rental for the team. So the former London Knights star looks primed to hit the unrestricted free-agent market for the first time in his career.
But what should his market look like? Domi is a bit of an enigmatic player. He is very talented offensively, having produced at an elite level once before (when he had 72 points for the Montreal Canadiens in the 2018-19 season) and having the overall skill level to appear on highlight reels. Additionally, Domi plays with a level of energy and enthusiasm that one would expect from the son of Tie Domi, and he plays a style that allows him to quickly endear himself to fans. Although coaches have mostly preferred to keep him on the wing, Domi also has experience playing center, which adds to his value. But with those positives comes a sometimes maddening level of inconsistency, as well as a shaky defensive game. Domi butted heads with coach John Tortorella in Columbus, and near the end of his tenure in Montreal, he found himself relegated to fourth-line center duty. So despite his intriguing package of skills and desirable work ethic, Domi’s overall offering as a free agent is more mixed than it may initially seem.
All of those factors make assessing what Domi could cost on the open market a challenging prospect. With many players, there are typically some generally accurate comparable players to use as a benchmark for estimating what kind of contract a player can command in free agency. But with Domi, are there many comparables that make sense for his situation? One tool we have to assess how Domi is viewed leaguewide is his trade value. It’s not perfect, as there are a whole host of factors that go into an in-season trade that are not present in the summer, but it can paint a somewhat accurate picture. 
Domi’s trade was a complicated three-way deal that involved a “cap broker” and multiple assets being swapped just to account for the financial aspects of the deal. But in the end, the Blue Jackets, the team trading Domi, got just one asset in return for him, the rights to prospect defenseman Aidan Hreschuk, a 19-year-old playing for Boston College. Hreschuk was a third-round pick in 2021 and had 8 points in 37 games in this NCAA season. If that return is any indication, Domi’s value has declined sharply since a few years ago, when he was the main return in Columbus’ Josh Anderson trade and earned a contract worth over $5MM AAV.
This offseason’s market for offensive skill players is one that theoretically offers teams many options, with elite scorers such as Johnny Gaudreau, Filip Forsberg, and Nazem Kadri as the headliners, meaning Domi may not be the beneficiary of a bidding war caused by an imbalance between the supply and demand of scoring talent on the market. That means that Domi may not reach the $5.3MM AAV mark he is currently earning if he wants a long-term contract. But if Domi wants a shorter-term deal, one where he can prioritize role and fit in order to re-enter the market on the back of a better platform year, that would likely make him a desirable player for many cap-strapped teams. Domi’s 2018-19 season showed that he can score at a high level in the NHL, but he hasn’t come close to that since. His decision this offseason regarding where he wants to sign as a first-time UFA could determine if he reaches those heights again.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Snapshots: Kuzmenko, Boudreau, Price
While the IIHF recently announced an additional sanction on hockey in Russia, and the NHL has cut ties with the KHL, Russian players are still permitted to sign as free agents with NHL clubs. With the KHL season set to end shortly, KHL free agents seeking to cross the Atlantic and sign with an NHL team have come under the microscope. Perhaps the most attention has been paid to Andrei Kuzmenko, who is set to become a free agent on May 1st. Kuzmenko, 26, had 53 points in 45 games in this KHL campaign, along with 14 points in 16 playoff games. Kuzmenko’s offensive profile is tantalizing to many NHL teams, and since he is still just 26 years old it is not unreasonable to think there is room for him to grow.
Like many of the KHL free agents who came before him, Kuzmenko is expected to have a competitive market when he and his representatives choose to begin negotiations. On TSN’s Insider Trading program, TSN Hockey Insider Chris Johnston reported that next week Kuzmenko will begin the interview process with NHL teams. Johnston reports that it is believed that 20 NHL teams will reach out to Kuzmenko with at least “some degree of interest.” In terms of what factors may play into Kuzmenko’s decision-making process, Johnston says that Kuzmenko “wants to go somewhere where he can play, where he’s going to have a role,” and that the market and city a team plays in is a less important factor. That should certainly make the competition to secure Kuzmenko’s services a bit more wide-open, and given that he only costs a signing team cap space and no assets to acquire, there will likely be many fanbases across the NHL hoping their team can be the one to land this intriguing KHL veteran.
Now, some more snapshots from across the NHL:
- While Bruce Boudreau’s contract situation has been a major storyline in recent months, it seems the fears of a potential offseason departure for the 67-year-old Canucks skipper can be all but dismissed. In an interview with CHEK’s Don Taylor and Rick Dhaliwal, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman gave an update on Boudreau’s status. In his interview, Friedman states that Boudreau will return as Vancouver’s coach “if everybody is reasonable.” Friedman believes that as long as neither party is “being ridiculous,” as he terms it, then there should be no real issue securing an agreement on Boudreau’s return. Both the Canucks’ players and fanbase have responded extremely well to Boudreau’s coaching, and since he arrived in Vancouver the Canucks have been among the tougher teams to beat in the NHL. So while there may have once been fears of an offseason divorce for Boudreau and the Canucks, it now seems that there is very little chance of those fears becoming reality.
- Carey Price has made his return to the Montreal Canadiens, but that doesn’t mean his future is made any more certain. In another note from TSN’s Insider Trading program, TSN Hockey Insider Pierre LeBrun gave an update on Price’s status. LeBrun reports that Price “wants to play next season” as a number-one priority for him, but in order to do so, he needs to have full health in the injured knee that cost him so many games this season. According to LeBrun, not a certainty that Price’s knee can get there. Lebrun doesn’t cast any majorly pessimistic forecasts on Price’s health, but he does state that there is “a bit of uncertainty” to Price’s health situation that may complicate not only his future but also the future of the Canadiens.
Dryden McKay Signs With Toronto Marlies
The interesting saga of Dryden McKay is heading to Toronto, as the free agent goaltender has signed a two-year AHL contract with the Toronto Marlies. Of note, McKay is currently serving a six-month sanction for breaking anti-doping rules by unknowingly ingesting a banned substance. He will be eligible to practice with a team in August and play in early October, meaning his professional career will not be significantly affected.
McKay, 24, is the reigning Hobey Baker winner after another outstanding college season, where he posted a .931 save percentage in 43 games for Minnesota State-Mankato. He led the group all the way to the national championship game (eventually losing to the University of Denver) and went 38-5 overall. Those kinds of numbers are nothing new for McKay, who posted a .932 save percentage and 113-20-4 record over 140 career appearances at the NCAA level, and was a finalist for the Hobey Baker in each of the previous two seasons.
It’s easy to see why he would choose Toronto. The Maple Leafs have had goaltending issues all season long after free agent signing Petr Mrazek never really got off the ground, and are facing the potential loss of Jack Campbell to unrestricted free agency in the summer. The team is currently using 25-year-old Erik Kallgren as the backup, who is signed through next season on a two-way deal, and also have the oft-injured Joseph Woll in the organization along with Mrazek. That doesn’t represent a ton of depth at the position, meaning McKay will have a clear path to playing time in the AHL if he shows his performance from college can carry over to the next level.
That’s by no means a certainty, though the Maple Leafs also have a strong development and support system to help him along the way. The organization has done exactly that for fellow college free agent Keith Petruzzelli, who decided to sign a similar minor league deal with Toronto last summer and has progressed nicely through the system. It appears as though the Maple Leafs are trying their hardest to add depth at the position in any way they can, including even trying to bring over KHL netminder Harri Sateri at the trade deadline; Sateri was eventually lost on waivers to the Arizona Coyotes.
This contract means he is not call-up eligible and will still need to sign an entry-level deal in order to play in the NHL.
Looking At Vincent Trocheck’s Impending Free Agency
The Carolina Hurricanes have been one of the NHL’s best teams over the past several seasons, and a major reason for that success has been their depth down the middle. The team has Sebastian Aho, one of the best centers in hockey, and Jordan Staal, who is in his tenth season with the club. In addition to those two, the team has had Vincent Trocheck since a February 2020 trade with Florida, but they may not have him for much longer. Trocheck, 28, is set to be an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career, as the six-year, $4.75MM AAV contract he signed as a 23-year-old Panther is set to expire at the end of this season. With the Hurricanes having extended offseason addition Jesperi Kotkaniemi, getting him under contract until 2029-30 at $4.82MM against the cap, it looks as though Trocheck may be forced to join the third team of his career if he wants to maximize his earnings this summer.
That is not his preference, though. In an interview with Matt Larkin of Daily Faceoff, Trocheck reiterated his desire to stay in Carolina, saying:
That’s still the goal, to be here. I love being a Hurricane and having a chance to win every year is where you want to be. So hopefully we can figure something out.
As previously mentioned, though, staying in Carolina may not make financial sense for both the team and the player. The team has committed nearly $20MM for next season to the trio of Staal, Aho, and Kotkaniemi, and with other significant contracts on the books already, things are getting tight. Additionally, Vezina Trophy hopeful Frederik Andersen will need an extension after next season, meaning with all that in mind, Trocheck may be the player who becomes the odd man out this summer.
It may even be probable. With the extension to Tomas Hertl, the offseason’s center market is looking a bit thin. Beyond breakout Avalanche star Nazem Kadri, there aren’t many players available on this summer’s market who can play center and have a scoring pedigree. It is expected that franchise icons Evgeni Malkin and Patrice Bergeron will re-up with the only NHL clubs they have ever known, and Florida’s Claude Giroux has been more of a winger than a center in recent years. That leaves Trocheck and the Rangers’ Ryan Strome as the only two centers set to hit the market this offseason who have even crossed the 35-point mark in 2021-22, meaning the market for Trocheck this summer should be very player-friendly.
Trocheck has had a nice season in Carolina, with 20 goals and 48 points in 79 games. This is Trocheck’s fourth season where he has reached the 20-goal plateau, and he potted 17 in only 47 games last season. Trocheck also has flashed even higher levels of offensive upside, as he hit 31 goals and 75 points in the 2017-18 season with the Panthers. In addition to his offense, Trocheck has a decently well-rounded defensive game, and he ranks third among Hurricanes forwards in shorthanded time-on-ice per game. So, in short, Trocheck is a two-way center that can help a team defensively and add 20 goals and 50 points as a baseline level of offensive production. Players like that get paid on the open market, and with the aforementioned dearth of quality centers in this offseason’s free-agent class, Trocheck is lined up to get a major contract.
So even if his preference is to remain in Carolina, money is typically the ultimate deciding factor for most players, (and rightfully so) meaning Trocheck’s time as a Hurricane is likely coming to an end. But that leaves a question to be considered: with comparable centers like Kevin Hayes crossing the $7MM AAV threshold in their long-term free-agent contracts, is $7MM+ per year on a long-term contract an appropriate price to pay for a player like Trocheck, someone who is an accomplished all-around center but far from a superstar?
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