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Looking At A Pair Of Intriguing Colorado Avalanche UFAs

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With the Colorado Avalanche headed to their first Conference Finals in 20 years and vying for their first Stanley Cup Championship since 2001, much has been made about their impending UFAs and their ability to re-sign them. The bulk of that discussion has centered around star center Nazem Kadri and starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper, both of whom were brought in to take Colorado to the next level as a playoff team, and the noise surrounding them has been more than justified. Kuemper posted another strong season, his first in Colorado, with a .921 save-percentage and 2.54 goals-against average. Kadri, already a strong performer, had nothing short of a sensational breakout year, with 28 goals and 59 assists in 71 games. Not surprisingly, both have carried their production over to the playoffs. If and when Kadri or Kuemper hit the UFA market in July, they will have plenty of interest.

As much as the chatter around those two is justified, there are two key pieces of the Avalanche also on the heels of breakout seasons, headed for free agency, who appear to have considerably less buzz. Despite the lack of hype, or maybe being overshadowed on a star-studded team, forwards Valeri Nichushkin and Andre Burakovsky will hit free agency with, one would expect, strong markets for their services.

Burakovsky’s production is not exactly a new phenomenon, as the winger has averaged 0.79 points-per-game over his three seasons in Colorado, his 61 points in 2021-22 actually representing a (very small) step down at 0.76 points-per-game, but is a major step-up from the 0.44 points-per-game he averaged with the Washington Capitals previously. For the most part, COVID-19’s schedule disruptions are responsible for Burakovsky’s lower point totals in the two seasons prior to this one, however this season represent’s Burakovsky’s ability to produce at this rate not over 50-60 games, but over a full NHL season. Although Burakovsky has amassed his numbers on an incredible offensive team like Colorado, during a period of increased scoring league-wide, he has shown the ability to stay in the lineup and produce consistently, and at just 27 years of age, he appears ripe for a longer-term contract.

Unlike Burakovsky, Nichuskin had a true breakout season, setting a career-high with 52 points, 18 more than his previous career-high of 34 set in his rookie season in 2013-14 with the Dallas Stars. After three seasons with Dallas, Nichushkin left the NHL to play with CSKA Moscow of the KHL, but returned for the 2018-19 season, where he struggled to just 10 assists in 57 games for Dallas. He would leave Dallas for Colorado, where he would find consistent production before a strong 2021-22 season. Though Nichushkin does not have Burakovsky’s consistency, he has shown his ability to adapt and produce throughout his career, entering the league as an 18-year-old, where he put up 34 points. He has shown an ability to produce in the NHL since then, and while his production back home in the KHL was no more impressive than his NHL production to date, he proved he could take his game from one league and one side of the globe to another and produce, then back once again. Nichushkin also has a factor in his game that cannot be taught or taken away: his size. Listed at 6’4 and 210 pounds, Nichushkin is able to use his body to impose himself and create space for him and his teammates.

Nichushkin may have trouble finding the term that Burakovsky might be able to, however his unique skillset and his recent production should be enough to land him a contract with a strong AAV, and at just 27 years old, if he can continue to match his 2021-22 production over the life of a shorter contract, perhaps two or three years, he could be in line for a long-term deal in the future.

Looking at the market for these two certainly does not mean that Colorado will not be able to retain one or both of them, however the organization does have several questions to ask. First and foremost among them is how do they fit along with trying to re-sign the aforementioned Kadri and Kuemper? After letting goaltender Philipp Grubauer sign in Seattle, replacing him with Kuemper, Colorado will likely push to retain Kuemper. As brilliant as Kadri was this season, he is likely headed for a long-term deal with a reasonably high AAV this offseason, and at 32 years of age on opening night, it might not be the most prudent investment for Colorado, especially if they can, instead, re-sign both Nichushkin and Burakovsky.

With $26.485MM in projected cap space this offseason, Colorado could, in theory, bring all four back, leaving things a bit tight cap-wise (and would likely necessitate Josh Manson leaving via free agency). However, issues then arise after next season, when Nathan MacKinnon becomes a UFA, and would require a significant raise over his current, team-friendly $6.3MM cap hit. Defenseman Erik Johnson’s $6MM cap hit would also expire, and while he might take a reduced salary to stick around, it would probably not be enough to balance out MacKinnon’s raise, all of this before considering J.T. Compher’s UFA status, and the expiration of Bowen Byram and Alex Newhook’s ELCs. As much as some of these things seem like future problems for Colorado, the questions they pose back up into now, and how the organization could approach this upcoming offseason with four of their key pieces set to become UFAs.

Snapshots: Flames Negotiations, Wright, Brossoit

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The Flames’ season may be over, but the work for their front office is only just beginning. Not only is the beating heart of their franchise, Johnny Gaudreau, a pending unrestricted free agent, but they also have potential future captain Matthew Tkachuk as an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent who is inching closer to his own unrestricted free agency. The next month is set to be one full of crucial negotiations for the Flames, and according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the team would like to begin those as soon as possible.

Friedman reports that the Flames will move “aggressively” to extend those two players, in order to have a quick understanding of “what the landscape is” in terms of their futures. The Flames can hardly be blamed for their urgency, given the importance of both Gaudreau and Tkachuk to everything they have been building. Flames GM Brad Treliving has previously said that he would “move heaven and earth” to retain Gaudreau, and one has to assume he will carry that same attitude towards retaining Tkachuk. But as is the case with most contract negotiations in the NHL, Treliving’s “heaven and earth” will likely take a backseat to the most important factor: dollars and cents.

Now, for some other bits of news from across the NHL:

  • Before free agency can begin, there is another major event on the NHL’s calendar that will need to be completed: the entry draft. We previously covered how it’s not a guarantee that Kingston Frontenacs center Shane Wright will go first overall to the Montreal Canadiens, and there is now another development regarding that connection. Friedman reported yesterday that the Canadiens’ brass led by Jeff Gorton and Kent Hughes will meet face-to-face with Wright at the NHL combine. Just as making the first overall selection comes with a lot of opportunity so comes a lot of responsibility, and the interactions between the Canadiens and Wright could go a long way towards making the team feel more comfortable in his projection if he does end up the number-one pick.
  • Injuries proved fatal for the Golden Knights this past season, as the team missed the playoffs for the first time in their franchise’s history. One of the Golden Knights still dealing with an injury is goaltender Laurent Brossoit. Sportsnet’s Jeff Marek reports that Brossoit had hip surgery and that the team is “hoping” that he will be available for the start of next season. With starter Robin Lehner already recovering from his own surgery and the late-season breakout of Logan Thompson in mind, it’s clear that Vegas’ future in net is anything but settled.

Latest On Andrew Copp

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Last night, the New York Rangers won a crucial game against the Carolina Hurricanes, keeping their season alive. Andrew Copp, who the Rangers acquired from the Winnipeg Jets at the trade deadline, has been a major reason for the team’s success in these playoffs. Given his status as a pending unrestricted free agent, it’s natural to believe that Copp has earned himself some money on his next deal with how he’s performed in New York. On the 32 Thoughts segment of last night’s Sportsnet broadcast of the Rangers/Hurricanes game, Sportsnet’s Jeff Marek supported that line of thinking, reporting that it “sounds as if” Copp’s market is going to land between the deals signed by two recent comparable unrestricted free agents: Phillip Danault and Zach Hyman.

Danault signed his contract after leading the way on a Canadiens team that to the 2021 Stanley Cup final, inking a six-year, $33MM deal with the Los Angeles Kings. Hyman signed a seven-year, $38.5MM deal with the Oilers after a season where he scored at a 63-point pace. While Copp’s defensive game may not be quite at the level of Danault’s (who is a consistent down-ballot Selke candidate) and his offense may be slightly below where Hyman’s was in his platform year, Copp has proven to be an incredible fit with Artemi Panarin and Ryan Strome and is now producing better than he ever has as a professional.

As a Ranger, including the playoffs, Copp has 28 points in 29 games, showing that in the right fit, he can be a very strong offensive producer to go along with his defensive game. The Rangers also have Strome as a pending unrestricted free agent and could find themselves forced to choose only one of the two to retain after this season, given the constraints of the salary cap. Strome may have a longer and more proven track record of chemistry with Panarin than Copp does, but Copp has outproduced him in these playoffs and offers more versatility, as well as a more well-regarded defensive game. The Rangers’ attempts to retain both or their choice between the two will be one of the Rangers’ top storylines this offseason, and recent reporting indicates that they will be aggressive in their pursuit of Copp.

Copp’s performance also still holds significance for his former team. As part of their trade with the Rangers, the second-round pick the Jets received for Copp was actually conditional, and is upgraded from a 2022 second-rounder to a 2022 first-rounder if the Rangers make it to the Eastern Conference Final (to be decided Monday) and Copp plays in at least 50% of the team’s playoff games. So while two fanbases will see their teams battle to remain alive in the chase for the Stanley Cup, there will be a third fanbase also likely to be deeply invested in the fate of Monday’s high-stakes seventh game.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Calgary Notes: Tkachuk, Injury Updates, Monahan

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After the conclusion of the Calgary Flames’ season on Thursday, the team took some time to digest and spoke to the media today in their end-of-season media availability, touching primarily on injury news, some known and some not, as well as topics for this offseason. One of those offseason topics comes with the status of superstar forward Matthew Tkachuk, who is a RFA after finishing a three-year, $21MM contract this season. Tkachuk impressed over the life of the contract, capping it off with an incredible 42 goals and 62 assists in 82 games this season. Keeping the forward in the fold long-term is absolutely a priority for the Flames, however they also have to focus on re-signing superstar Johnny Gaudreau, who is a pending UFA, and give fairly significant raises to forward Andrew Mangiapane and defenseman Oliver Kylington.

Calgary did seem to clear one hurdle today, as Tkachuk himself told the media, when asked about an extension, that he would love to sign a long-term deal with the Flames, expressing his love for the team, the city, and the fanbase. Tkachuk’s sentiment is no small feat for the Flames considering the league has seen a number of superstar players depart their teams in free agency in recent years. Though a RFA, Tkachuk could opt for a shorter-term bridge deal and hit the unrestricted free agent market sooner than later, which would put Calgary in a tough spot, with forwards Tyler Toffoli, Mikael Backlund, and Elias Lindholm, as well as defensemen Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev all set to become UFAs after the 2023-24 season. All of that before considering what an extension with Gaudreau would include. Keeping Tkachuk long-term won’t ease the burden of his cap hit, but will provide Calgary with the security of knowing a superstar is staying put for a certain salary while they navigate that predictably difficult 2024 offseason and the future of the franchise.

  • Sportsnet’s Eric Francis provided injury updates on several Flames players, including Tkachuck, Mangiapane, Tanev, Milan Lucic, and Nikita Zadorov. Lucic, who had struggled to just one assist in 12 playoff games has an AC sprain. Tkachuck had an injured hand and Mangipane a bad wrist. Perhaps most notably, Zadorov, who had done an excellent job shutting down both Edmonton and the Dallas Stars, did so in some part with two broken ribs. Despite the number of injuries for Calgary, it appears that Tanev, who has a torn labrum, separated shoulder, and sprained neck, will be the only one having surgery (link).
  • More from the injury front, as The Athletic’s Hailey Salvian also provided an update on forward Sean Monahan, who had hip surgery in the first week of April. Flames GM Brad Treliving told Salvian that Monahan’s recovery was about 5-6 weeks ahead of schedule as compared to where he was with his hip surgery last offseason, and the forward should resume skating in the coming weeks. With opening night over four months away, we will have to wait a while to see Monahan back in the Calgary lineup at full strength. However, the update on Monahan, who has struggled more and more over the past three seasons while dealing with injury, is absolutely encouraging, and getting him back to the form that saw him hit a career-high 82 points in 2018-19 could work as a “free” addition for the Flames, who are currently at-risk of losing Gaudreau in free agency this offseason.

Looking At Claude Giroux’s Impending Free Agency

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With the Florida Panthers now swept out of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, many questions will arise this offseason about the future of this year’s Presidents’ Trophy winners. One of those questions will be the future of forward Claude Giroux, who the Panthers acquired at the Trade Deadline. The longtime captain of the Philadelphia Flyers was moved for what many viewed as an underwhelming return, and despite Florida’s early elimination, Giroux performed with renewed vigor on a better team. He had eight points in 10 playoff games but piled up assists in the regular season, notching 20 in 18 games with the Panthers. He still managed 42 points in 57 games with the Flyers prior to the trade on a massively struggling team, too. His eight-year extension that kicked in prior to 2014-15 is now expiring, and Giroux could hit unrestricted free agency for the first time in his 15-year career.

Giroux has already stated his desire to return to South Florida if the opportunity arises. However, with the worst year of the Keith Yandle buyout hitting the Panthers next season, the team has just under $4MM in projected cap space for the 2022-23 season, according to CapFriendly. That’s already an impossible number to sign Giroux unless he takes a serious old-man discount, but the team also has a handful of roster spots to fill on both forward and defense. The team could likely opt to trade Patric Hornqvist (with a limited no-trade clause) and the final year of his $5.3MM cap hit, though, which could seriously open the door for a Giroux return.

If Giroux can’t work out a return to the Panthers organization, though, teams will come prepared with serious offers for his services. The 34-year-old can still be counted on for at least 20 goals and 65/70 points in a full season, and he remains a very good defensive presence and faceoff man. Giroux is still boasting a streak of five seasons above a 55 percent mark in the faceoff circle, and although his skill set is now best used on the wing, he’s still valuable as a faceoff specialist. It’s hard to imagine Giroux receiving less than $6MM or $7MM, although a four-year term is likely an extreme maximum for Giroux at this point.

His hometown Ottawa Senators have been constantly linked to Giroux over the past few years, and the team hasn’t been quiet about their desire to improve this offseason drastically. With the team boasting nearly $25MM in cap space this offseason, they have the room and then some to make that sort of acquisition.

Is a return to the Flyers in the cards? It’s doubtful. Giroux hasn’t made a Stanley Cup Final in 12 years and he doesn’t have a ring. It’s that fact that makes it seem like a discount to stay in a team on the rise in Florida would make the most sense for Giroux. However, if the Senators play their cards right and their prospects develop properly, they could be in a position to win Cups by the end of a Giroux contract as well. Other teams in contending positions may not have the cap space to afford Giroux’s services, but it’s much too early to eliminate that scenario.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Dylan Larkin Changes Representation

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One of the biggest items on Detroit Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman’s checklist this offseason is a potential contract extension with captain Dylan Larkin. The 25-year-old center is signed through 2022-23 and would become an unrestricted free agent next offseason if a deal isn’t reached. It seemed as though Yzerman and the Red Wings front office would be negotiating that extension with KO Sports, but last night Max Bultman of The Athletic reported that Larkin has changed representation. He’s now with CAA, represented by Matt Williams and NHL super-agent Pat Brisson.

It appears as though that was a very unexpected decision, given the statement that Kurt Overhardt, CEO of KO Sports, released to Bultman today:

From a relationship standpoint, Dylan Larkin worked primarily with my business partner, Joe Oliver. Throughout the past 11 years, Joe has thoughtfully guided Dylan through countless matters both on and off the ice. There was never a single issue raised between Dylan and Joe for the entirety of their professional relationship and Joe was completely blindsided by this decision. For the past several months, Joe had been working directly with Dylan in preparation to negotiate his contract extension with the Detroit Red Wings. 

As with all of our clients, our work on behalf of Dylan was at the highest standard in all situations. We are very disappointed in his decision and the timing. 

Obviously, the interest of the agents is to remain with a client through what should be a massive negotiation, and Overhardt’s statement should be taken with a grain of salt. But it does confirm for Red Wings fans that Larkin is ready to negotiate this offseason–or at least was with his previous representation.

While KO Sports is no small outfit, moving to CAA takes Larkin right to the top. Brisson has more than $1B in negotiated active contracts according to PuckPedia, including clients like John Tavares, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, and Anze Kopitar, all players with an average annual value of at least $10MM. For what it’s worth (which may be nothing), Brisson currently has just one client with the Red Wings–Jared McIsaac–and none with Yzerman’s former outfit in Tampa Bay.

Larkin is coming off quite the platform year to start negotiating. Reinvigorated by his young, up-and-coming teammates, the speedy forward scored 31 goals and 69 points in 71 games. His overall production is similar to CAA client Matt Duchene through the early part of his career; Duchene ended up signing a seven-year, $56MM contract with the Nashville Predators when he hit the open market in 2019. He did negotiate a multi-year deal with the Red Wings for Anthony Mantha in 2020.

Players signed through 2022-23 are eligible for extensions on July 13, when free agency opens this year.

Overseas Notes: Blankenburg, Verbeek, Merkulov

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Nick Blankenburg’s World Championship is over. Brian Hedger of the Columbus Dispatch reports that the Blue Jackets’ rookie defenseman has left Team USA due to injury. Blankenburg sustained a knee injury during the international tournament in Finland and decided to return home. However, Hedger adds that the injury is not supposed to be severe and that Blankenburg’s health by the start of next season is not in doubt. Even with the early exit from the Worlds, Blankenburg has had quite the unforgettable year. The 24-year-old defender had a career season as the senior captain of Michigan, recording 14 goals and 29 points in 38 games en route to a Frozen Four appearance. He then signed with Columbus as an undrafted free agent and proceeded to record three points in seven NHL games down the stretch. Blankenburg earned a spot with Team USA at the World Championship and played in four games with the team. He will look to continue his success streak by winning a regular role with the Blue Jackets next season.

  • Hayden Verbeek’s uncle may be the new GM of the Anaheim Ducks, but the young forward won’t wait around for NHL free agency in hopes of a family deal on a new contract. Verbeek has opted to leave North America altogether and sign a one-year deal with Slovakian club HK Spisska Nova Ves, the team announced. Verbeek is no stranger to Slovakia, having played in the Extraliga early in 2020-21 while awaiting the delayed AHL season. While Verbeek played exclusively in the AHL after returning last year, he did spend some time in the ECHL this season, which could have been the deciding factor in his move overseas. Four seasons into his pro career, including the first three on an NHL contract, Verbeek has played largely in the AHL but has been demoted to the ECHL in three seasons and has seen no NHL action. Looking for a more consistent role in a top league, Verbeek will try his hand again in Slovakia next season.
  • When Georgi Merkulov, a star prospect out of the MHL, left Russia in 2020 to embark on a development path in North America with the USHL’s Youngstown Phantoms and then the NCAA’s Ohio State Buckeyes, the odds that he would one day star in the KHL slipped. Then-rights holder HK Sochi decided to trade Merkulov to Amur Khabarovsk, doubting that he would ever suit up for the team. When Merkulov surprisingly turned pro after just one college season, signing with the Boston Bruins this spring, those odds fell even further. Amur has now decided to move on as well. KHL powerhouse CKSA Moscow, whose youth system Merkulov developed in, has decided to take a long-term gamble, acquiring the rights to their former prospect, per the KHL. In exchange, Amur received minor league defenseman Ilya Dervuk. Merkulov recorded 20 goals and 34 points in 38 games this season for Ohio State as one of the top freshmen in the NCAA and then added five points in eight AHL games with the Providence Bruins. Boston certainly hopes that this scoring prowess translates to the NHL and that these KHL trades are ultimately meaningless.

Columbus Blue Jackets Sign Marcus Bjork

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The Columbus Blue Jackets have entered the early free agency mix, adding to their blue line with an overseas addition. Brian Hedger of the Columbus Dispatch relays a team press release announcing that Swedish defenseman Marcus Bjork has signed a one-year entry-level contract with the Blue Jackets. The 24-year-old has spent the past four seasons in the SHL.

Bjork will not be entirely new to North American hockey when he arrives in Columbus next season. In 2016-17, the young defender began the season with the USHL’s Omaha Lancers. However, he returned to Sweden after just eight games. The following year, Bjork played in Sweden’s second-tier pro league, the Allsvenskan, and earned Defenseman of the Year honors by leading the league’s defensemen in goals and points. The breakout campaign earned him a contract in the SHL, but he didn’t immediately continue his upward trajectory. Bjork has found more success in recent years with Brynas IF however, recording 39 points in 116 games over parts of three seasons.

The Blue Jackets clearly like what they have seen from Bjork, whose game has balanced out since his younger years as well. At 6’3″ and over 200 lbs., Bjork brings good size and physicality to go with his offensive game. While he may take some time to adjust to the NHL – or perhaps more likely the AHL – Bjork could become a nice two-way piece for Columbus. He joins a young blue line that includes Zach Werenski, Andrew Peeke, Jake Bean, Adam Boqvist, Nick Blankenburg, and Jake Christiansen as NHL options under 25.

Detroit Red Wings Extend Taro Hirose

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The Detroit Red Wings have reached an agreement with Taro Hirose on a two-year contract extension, keeping him in the organization and away from unrestricted free agency. The financial details of the deal have not yet been released.

Hirose, 25, would have qualified as a Group VI UFA this summer, after playing just 57 games to this point in his NHL career. Just 15 of those came this season but the young forward showed just how dangerous he could be at the minor league level.

In 59 games for the Grand Rapids Griffins, Hirose had 15 goals and 53 points. He’ll likely spend a good chunk of this new contract in the minor leagues as well, though he’ll have to clear waivers in order to do it.

A highly sought-after undrafted free agent in 2019 out of Michigan State University, Hirose has 20 points in his 57-game NHL career to this point, suggesting that there actually is some upside at that level if he ever gets a more prolonged opportunity. If not, he still represents a strong injury replacement for short-term stints, as he can step into a top-six or powerplay role if necessary.

There’s also always a chance that he catches the eye of the new coaching staff, with Jeff Blashill not returning. That battle will happen in training camp now that the contract negotiations are complete.

Looking At The Impending Vegas Cap Crunch

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To say the 2021-22 season was a gigantic disappointment for the Vegas Golden Knights would also be a massive understatement. After mortgaging a large part of their future to acquire superstar center Jack Eichel, albeit for the long term, the team missed the playoffs for the first time in franchise history and fired head coach Peter DeBoer earlier this week.

Now, general manager Kelly McCrimmon has an arduous offseason to retool the roster and find a new head coach. Both will need significant attention, however, the Knights are already entering free agency with the pressing need to shed cap space. With a roster size of 23, the team is already in a salary deficit of about $500,000, even with the small cap increase to $82.5MM next year (CapFriendly).

While some of those players may be sent to AHL Henderson when the team is fully healthy, the team needs to make a decision on RFAs Nicolas Roy, Brett Howden, Keegan Kolesar, and Nicolas Hague, who have all been extremely valuable to the team in their depth roles. It’s clear that unless the Knights somehow make a move to acquire significant long-term injury relief (Shea Weber?), the team needs to move on from a decent chunk of cash to be comfortable under the cap in 2022-23.

Obviously, the choice that jumps off the page is forward Evgenii Dadonov. Signed just through next season at $5MM, the veteran forward was already involved in a trade intended to dump his salary but was reversed due to his limited no-trade clause. He did hit the 20-goal mark again this year and could do so again if given good support. It’s a low-risk acquisition for teams looking for scoring depth, especially with his contract expiring at the end of the year. However, Vegas has absolutely no leverage in this situation given the failed trade in March. If that incident didn’t happen, the Knights could probably have made a decent deal involving Dadonov this offseason. They’ll likely still be able to make a trade, but it won’t involve much benefit for the team other than cap space.

Another potential option is William Karlsson. Given his offensive upside and defensive acumen, teams would probably like to have a top-six centerman under a $6MM cap hit. With the Eichel acquisition and solid play from the cheaper Chandler Stephenson, there is no longer a pressing need for Karlsson in the lineup. He had a very tough season putting pucks in the net, though, and his 40-goal 2017-18 campaign seems like decades ago for him now. He’s scored just 15, 14, and 12 goals in the past three years, and while he still puts up points, he’s signed through 2027. It would clear a tad more cap space than Dadonov, though, and the wing is more a position of need for the Knights. Yet, the relationship between Dadonov and the Knights must be considered. If the relationship is irreparably severed, the team might have no choice. That’s not to say they still couldn’t entertain the idea of moving Karlsson, however.

Lastly, there’s backup netminder Laurent Brossoit and his $2.3MM cap hit. He’s almost surely gone considering the incredibly strong play of youngster Logan Thompson down the stretch. It’s not much cap relief, though, and the team likely needs a little more wiggle room to adjust the roster as desired.

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