Expansion Primer: Nashville Predators
We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
Two days ago, the Nashville Predators’ dream season came to an end. A goal scored from nearly behind the net (after a much disputed quick whistle earlier in the game) put the Pittsburgh Penguins up 1-0 in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final, a lead which they would not relinquish. The Predators would have to watch on home ice while the Penguins celebrated winning the trophy, before saluting a crowd that had witnessed the longest playoff run in team history.
Now, they’ll head into the offseason with a bittersweet taste in their mouths from getting so close, and with some huge decisions to make with regards to the future of the team. Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson lead a large crop of restricted free agents that need new contracts, while both James Neal and Juuse Saros could be up for extensions as they have just one year left on their respective contracts. The Predators are one of the most interesting teams when it comes to the expansion draft, as their glut of defenders will likely force them to leave some other intriguing players available to Vegas.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Filip Forsberg, James Neal, Craig Smith, Colin Wilson, Calle Jarnkrok, Cody McLeod, Colton Sissons, Miikka Salomaki, Cody Bass, Trevor Smith, Austin Watson, Ryan Johansen, Pontus Aberg, Viktor Arvidsson
Defensemen:
P.K. Subban, Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis, Andrew O’Brien, Matt Irwin, Yannick Weber, Anthony Bitetto, Petter Granberg, Jaynen Rissling
Goaltender:
Pekka Rinne (NMC), Marek Mazanec
Notable Exemptions
Kevin Fiala, Victor Ejdsell, Vladislav Kamenev, Emil Pettersson, Frederik Gaudreau, Juuse Saros
Key Decisions
One of the tough parts about being a Stanley Cup contender is usually most of your core players are in or entering their prime and thus would be eligible for expansion. That’s the case in Nashville, where virtually all of their key players will need protection in the draft. The first decision they have to make is whether to use the 7-3-1 (seven forwards, three defensemen, one goaltender) or 8-1 (eight skaters, one goaltender) protection scheme. The Predators will most likely choose the latter, because of their deep defense corps. 
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Sometimes called a group of four #1 defenders, hyperbolic superlatives aside the Predators have one of the best groups among any blueline in the league. P.K. Subban, Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis all have incredible value, mostly because of the relatively low cap-hits held by the latter three. Leaving any of them available for Vegas would assure they were the selection, meaning that the team will likely only have four slots remaining for the forward group.
Beyond those four, only Matt Irwin holds any real value. The 29-year old defenseman has played well at times in a sheltered role in the NHL, developing into a legitimate option for any third pair in the league. Despite this, he would be an extreme long-shot to be selected by Vegas. Yannick Weber, re-signed just earlier today is even further removed from consideration.
Up front, four slots would leave several players available for the Golden Knights to pounce on. Three will undoubtedly go to Johansen, Arvidsson and Filip Forsberg while the last spot has several options. Today, Pierre LeBrun of TSN speculated on this decision, saying the team could potentially leave Neal unprotected and use it on Calle Jarnkrok instead. Neal is a 29-year old power forward who has scored at least 20 goals every season of his nine-year career. Earlier this year we looked at just how rare his career performance has been, making him an incredibly appealing option for Vegas should he be left exposed. Even though Neal has just one year left on his contract, he would likely be the most talented forward that the Golden Knights could acquire.
Jarnkrok on the other hand is an intriguing option, given the inexplicably cheap contract he signed last summer. At the age of 24 and coming off a 16 goal season, Jarnkrok signed a six-year $12MM contract that bought out several free agent years. Clearly it seems to matter more to him where he plays than how much he earns, as he easily could have made more on the open market when he reached unrestricted free agency. That cost-certainty is appealing to Vegas, as is his ability as a middle-six center that can contribute at both ends of the rink. Centers will likely be the most difficult thing for the Golden Knights to acquire through the draft, and they would likely jump at the opportunity to acquire one that just averaged 17 minutes a night on a team that made it to Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final.
There is also the problem of Colton Sissons, who before the playoffs would have been an afterthought in the expansion draft plans. When Ryan Johansen and Mike Fisher went out with various injuries though, Sissons stepped up and scored more points in his 22 playoff games than he did all season. He showed that there may be more to him than a bottom-six center, and given the right opportunity could thrive with more responsibility.
In net, Pekka Rinne would likely be protected even if he didn’t have the no-movement clause that makes it automatic. Rinne was a big part of how the Predators did so well in the playoffs, and at 34 put up another solid season. Though he’s owed a lot of money—$7MM per season for the next two years—he’ll likely enter next season as the starter once again as the team eases Saros in as the future in net. Saros’ exemption is a big plus for the team, as the 22-year old looks like one of the best young goaltenders in the league after posting a .923 save percentage as a rookie in 19 starts this year.
Among free agents that the Golden Knights may be interested in negotiating with during their exclusive window, only Mike Fisher really stands out. The captain of the Predators is 37 now and though he had a fantastic season for his age—18 goals and 42 points—wouldn’t provide much value for the Golden Knights who figure to struggle the first few years. Other than that, the team could try to negotiate a long-term deal with someone like Pontus Aberg, who showed he may have a future in an NHL top-six and could be tempting should they have a contract in hand by the end of the window.
Projected Protection List
F Filip Forsberg
F Viktor Arvidsson
F Ryan Johansen
F Calle Jarnkrok
D P.K. Subban
D Roman Josi
D Mattias Ekholm
D Ryan Ellis
The Predators are another team that is likely desperately trying to work out a deal of some sort with the Vegas Golden Knights or any other team, as letting Neal walk for nothing would be foolish. He’s still young enough that he can provide value for basically every team in the league, and wouldn’t be hard to find a suitor even on the last year of his contract. He does hold a limited no-trade clause, but it only allows him to block trades to eight teams around the league. Along with Sissons, Craig Smith, Colin Wilson and others, the Predators are ripe for the picking up front and could easily provide the Golden Knights with one of their best players.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Snapshots: Clarkson, NMCs, Hurricanes
The Columbus Blue Jackets have been rumored to be in discussions with the Vegas Golden Knights over a possible David Clarkson deal for some time, and today Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet again hinted at a possible trade between the two teams. The fact that Vegas might take on a bad contract is no surprise, but the potential return will shock many people. Friedman on Sportsnet 960:
Vegas is the epicenter of [all the trade talks]. I think they’re looking at a deal with Columbus, most likely for David Clarkson. They’ll get some nice pieces out of that, probably a first-round draft pick and maybe a prospect or two.
That would seem like an extremely high price to get Clarkson’s contract off the books, seeing as how he won’t even see the ice in Vegas as his injury has virtually retired him at this point. The Blue Jackets have already moved their second-round pick this season, so moving the #24 selection would mean they would be heading to the podium for their first selection at #86. That’s a long way down for any team to wait in a draft, even one with the solid young core that Columbus has built. Since Clarkson can be placed on LTIR when the season begins, the benefit for the Blue Jackets would be almost entirely in the offseason where they could spend more money re-signing their players and dabbling in free agency. If the salary cap stays flat, the team simply must move out some salary in order to retain Josh Anderson and Alexander Wennberg, both of whom are restricted free agents this summer.
- The deadline for requests to waive a no-movement clause has come and gone, and we only know for certain about a handful of players. Michael Russo of the Star Tribune and Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Sun both report that their respective teams will not announce whether they’ve asked Jason Pominville or Toby Enstrom to waive their clauses. Both players would be doing their team a great favor for the expansion draft if they did waive them, but many in the game believe that if you’ve worked hard enough to deserve one you shouldn’t be asked to waive it for any reason. Earlier today it was reported that Marc-Andre Fleury waived his clause back in February, giving the Penguins some certainty at the position but still playing some of his very best hockey in the playoffs for the club. We’ll find out who all waived their clauses when the protection lists come out on Sunday morning.
- The Carolina Hurricanes have promoted two scouts in their organization, naming Sheldon Ferguson head North American scout and Robert Kron head European scout. Both will remain under the purview of Tony MacDonald who will continue in his role as Director of Amateur Scouting. These promotions come at a time just before a very important draft for the Hurricanes in which they hold 10 picks. Recently, GM Ron Francis had admitted that he hopes to move some of the picks for players before the draft, but is content in using them if he can’t find the right deal. With four picks in the first two rounds, Carolina could easily move up in the draft as well should a targeted player drop far enough.
Expansion Primer: Calgary Flames
We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
The Calgary Flames came into this season with a new head coach, a new starting goaltender and a familiar goal: get back to the playoffs. They’d missed in 2015-16 for the sixth time in seven seasons, but had added a good young player in Matthew Tkachuk who would provide more than anyone expected of him as a teenager, and had signed the duo of Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan long-term.
The goaltending tandem of Brian Elliott and Chad Johnson had what you would call a roller coaster season, struggling at times before catching fire to get the team into the playoffs. As with any up there must come a down, and down it came in the first round as Elliott posted just an .880 save percentage and was yanked after just one goal in the deciding fourth game. The Flames will lick their wounds and try to find a different option in net this summer, while being at little risk of losing anything of value in the expansion draft.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Troy Brouwer, Michael Frolik, Mikael Backlund, Matt Stajan, Lance Bouma, Emile Poirier, Hunter Shinkaruk, Freddie Hamilton, Sam Bennett, Alex Chiasson, Micheal Ferland, Linden Vey, Curtis Lazar
Defensemen:
Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton, T.J. Brodie, Matt Bartkowski, Ryan Culkin, Tyler Wotherspoon, Brett Kulak
Goaltenders:
Notable Exemptions
Matthew Tkachuk, Daniel Pribyl, Dillon Dube, Josh Healey, Nick Schneider, Tyler Parsons, Jon Gillies, Oliver Kylington
Key Decisions
The Flames have put themselves in a fairly enviable position when it comes to the expansion draft, making savvy moves like signing Matt Bartkowski during the season to fill the defensive exposure requirements. Recently, GM Brad Treliving spoke about the difficulties some teams will have when deciding on their protection lists, and how Vegas will be hard-pressed to find NHL-caliber centers in the draft. That problem is emulated perhaps best by the expected protection on the Flames. They will likely choose the 7-3-1 protection scheme, allowing them to keep their depth down the middle. 
Up front, the Flames have just a few decisions to make on the back end of their list, as their five-man core (including three centers, Monahan, Mikael Backlund and Sam Bennett) are easy to point out. In the final two spots, the team will juggle some combination of Troy Brouwer, Curtis Lazar and Micheal Ferland, with the latter two likely earning the slots. Leaving Brouwer exposed is a tough decision to make just one year removed from signing him to an $18MM contract, but after a career-worst 25 points this season his contract may be all the protection he needs. After all, Treliving believes the Golden Knights will be acquiring assets instead of building a team, and Brouwer holds much less value than either of the other two young forwards.
Lazar, acquired at the deadline is another (part-time) center that will be unavailable to Vegas, even though he scored just four points in 37 games this season. The Flames gave up a second-round pick to get him from the Ottawa Senators, and still have big plans for his future in Calgary. The 22-year old was the 17th-overall pick in 2013, and will need a new contract this summer.
Ferland, a former fifth-round pick who has overcome a tremendous amount of personal struggle to even be in the NHL, found success alongside Gaudreau and Monahan at times and showed promise to become similar to what Brouwer has been throughout his career; a physical middle-six winger capable of adding some secondary scoring. While his 25 points are nothing to write home about, he is only 25 years old and showed that he may be capable of a 20-goal season at some point in his career.
There is the possibility Calgary could surprise and protect one of Hunter Shinkaruk or Alex Chiasson, both of whom are former high picks (24th and 38th respectively) that have shown either potential or performance at times throughout their career and are still young enough to contribute to Vegas. Both are long-shots, but could present some value for the Golden Knights if left available.
On defense, there isn’t much debate on the three who will be protected. Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton and T.J. Brodie are easy choices, and the reason Bartkowski was acquired in the first place. None of the other potential unprotected defensemen fulfill the requirement of a player who is signed through 2017-18 and played either 40 games this season or 70 the last two combined.
In net, the team actually only has Tom McCollum among non-UFA goaltenders, and signed him earlier in the year in order to fulfill the goaltending requirements. That means they could potentially re-sign Johnson or Elliott before the draft, or acquire another goaltender that would need protection. Marc-Andre Fleury, who has waived his no-trade clause in order to go to Vegas but is still an option for Calgary, as are several of the elite backups around the league. The Flames could go after Antti Raanta, Philipp Grubauer, Aaron Dell or Calvin Pickard in order to provide some value to a team afraid of losing them for nothing, but with such a strong goaltending pipeline may look to the free agent market instead for a shorter term option.
The Flames do have one interesting name when it comes to a free agent Vegas may be interested in: Michael Stone. The 27-year old defenseman is right-handed and has logged big minutes for Arizona in the past. His two-way game fit in quite well with the Flames, but they’ll have to wait to re-sign him until after the draft which gives Vegas an opportunity to talk with him in their exclusive window. If the Golden Knights thinks a long-term deal with Stone is worth more than one of the forward cast-offs, perhaps he is a target for them next week.
It’s worth mentioning that Linden Vey, who may have deserved protection a few years ago is set to play in the KHL next season and will likely be off the radar of both the Flames and Golden Knights. Calgary is expected to qualify him in order to retain his rights for the time being, but will not get to see him in the lineup this year.
Projected Protection List
F Johnny Gaudreau
F Sean Monahan
F Michael Frolik
F Mikael Backlund
F Sam Bennett
F Micheal Ferland
F Curtis Lazar
D Mark Giordano
D Dougie Hamilton
D T.J. Brodie
The Flames are in a good spot for the next few days, able to calmly assess the goaltending market and perhaps help a team out of a jam by taking an asset off their hands. When one of the worst things the team can lose is an overpaid 31-year old year old winger with three years left on his deal, you know you’ve done good work setting yourself up for the draft. It will be interesting to see which forwards fill out the last few spots, and even more interesting to see who Vegas decides to go with for their selection. Will it be a veteran player who can add leadership to an expansion franchise, or a lottery ticket from the minors who could develop into something under the right coaching?
In all, the team can look ahead to a summer filled with tougher tasks like RFA negotiations, rebuilding the bottom half of their defense and finding an answer in net. Some of those may be answered in the next few days, but more likely will stretch into July. With ample cap space and several vacant positions, Calgary will be one of the most interesting teams to follow in free agency.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Free Agent Focus: Buffalo Sabres
The free agent period is now less than one month away from opening up and there are several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Here is a breakdown of Buffalo’s free agent situation.
Key Restricted Free Agents:
F Marcus Foligno – At just 25 years old, Foligno will enter his seventh season with the Sabres organization in 2017-18. While his development has been slow, it’s also been steady, finishing each passing season with more points than the year before. Foligno isn’t the player who showed flashes of as a rookie in 2011-12, scoring 13 points in 14 games, but he’s carved out an important role in Buffalo as a reliable top-nine winger. 2016-17 marked a career-high 13 goals for Foligno, helped along by a team-best 13.4% shooting percentage, as well as his first 80+ game season. As always though, Foligno’s true value comes in his physical two-way game, where he had a career-best and team-leading 279 hits, career-high 57 blocked shots, which led all Buffalo forwards, and was a vital member of the penalty kill. Las year, the Sabres signed Foligno to just a one-year, $2.25MM contract, but after again proving his worth as a defensive forward and top-nine contributor, new Buffalo GM Jason Botterill should have no problem giving the homegrown product a multi-year deal worth $2.5-$3MM annually. Even with fellow priority RFA’s Zemgus Girgensons and Johan Larsson in need of raises, the Sabres have plenty of cap space and will give Foligno what he’s worth.
G Robin Lehner – The Sabres have no interest in letting Lehner go, but this off-season they need to either commit to the 25-year-old as their surefire starter or establish that they feel he is just a timeshare goalie at this point. Just two years ago, Buffalo traded a first-round pick to acquire Lehner from the Ottawa Senators. In his first year with the Sabres, he was excellent, posting a .924 save percentage and 2.47 GAA… but in only 21 games. Injuries limited Lehner to only a brief showing in 2015-16, but this past season he was able to see action in 59 games and again played well with a .920 save percentage and 2.68 GAA. With Chad Johnson gone, many expected that Lehner would play more this past season though. However, trade acquisition Anders Nilsson routinely outplayed Lehner all season long. The margin between the two wasn’t wide, but enough so that Nilsson managed to make 26 appearances, including 23 starts. The team has nonetheless stated that Lehner is their guy, but actions speak louder than words. The value and more so the term of Lehner’s contract this summer, as well as their negotiations with Nilsson, will speak volumes about their commitment to their supposed #1.
Other RFAs: F Zemgus Girgensons, F Johan Larsson, F Justin Kea, F Jean Dupuy, F Evan Rodrigues, D Brady Austin, G Linus Ullmark
Key Unrestricted Free Agents:
F Brian Gionta – The Buffalo captain may be 38 years old and have over 1000 NHL games under his belt, but he also just completed a full 82-game season and seventh on the team in scoring. At this point in his career, Gionta is not looking to re-locate and perhaps no team could use his veteran leadership and hockey intelligence more than the Sabres, who have few forwards over 30 and certain players in need of mentoring (i.e. Evander Kane). The Sabres have plenty of cap space to play with and are expected to fill holes throughout the roster via free agency, but they’ll have room to bring back their captain who is still capable of scoring 30-40 points and can play in all situations. He probably won’t get another three-year, $12.75MM contract, but if Gionta wants to be back, he will be.
G Anders Nilsson – The flip side of the situation with Lehner is that of Nilsson. Just a little over a year older than Lehner, Nilsson was finally given legitimate responsibility for the first time in his NHL career in 2016-17 and he flourished. His .923 save percentage and .267 GAA were just marginally better than Lehner, but a major step up from his previous performances. Perhaps the Sabres, who truly do need to commit to Lehner or not, are afraid that re-signing Nilsson would send the wrong message, but he has definitely earned that consideration. If the Sabres don’t bring back Nilsson, they’ll have to search for a veteran backup to the oft-injured Lehner anyway. It’s not a simple problem and how Boterill solves it will impact his start with the organization.
Other UFAs: D Cody Franson, D Dmitry Kulikov, D Taylor Fedun, D Erik Burgdoerfer, D Mat Bodie, F Derek Grant, F Cole Schneider, F Cal O’Reilly
Projected Cap Space: The Sabres currently have only $50.2MM committed to 2017-18 contracts by way of 11 forwards and five defensemen. (CapFriendly) The extensions for RFA’s Lehner, Foligno, Girgensons, and Larsson, all of whom will be safe from expansion, as well as roster hopefuls Alexander Nylander and Brady Austin will eat up some of that space. However, even if the cap ceiling remains at $73MM, Buffalo has nearly $23MM of space to work with and if Matt Moulson is an expansion casualty, as has been rumored, there’s another $5MM in relief. That should give them more than enough space to accommodate those young players, re-sign Gionta, extend or replace Nilsson, and still have the flexibility to explore the free agent market for better fits on the blue line than Franson or Kulikov and a game-changer up front.
Rangers Not Expected To Qualify Clendening Or Pirri
Seemingly minor news in a major article from the New York Post’s Larry Brooks today may have a substantial impact on the New York Rangers and this summer’s free agent market. Brooks reports that the New York Rangers do not plan to extend qualifying offers to impending restricted free agents Adam Clendening and Brandon Pirri. If restricted free agents are not tendered a qualifying offer, they become unrestricted free agents. The qualifying offer process, while not straightforward , is relatively pain-free for the team. For 2017, players must be offered 110% of their previous year’s salary if they made $660K or less last season, 105% if they made between $660K and $1MM, and 100% if they made over $1MM. The offer must also be a one-way contract if the player played in 180 games over the past three seasons, 60 games in 2016-17, and did not clear waivers this past season. While this may sound convoluted, it simply means that the New York Rangers only had to offer Clendening a two-way contract worth $660K, as he made $600K this past season and played in only 31 games, and Pirri a two-way contract worth $1.1MM, as he made $1.1MM this past season and played in only 170 games over the past three seasons, in order to maintain their negotiating rights. It seems as though the Rangers do not want to shoulder that burden however.
This is a familiar situation for Pirri, who was non-tendered by the Anaheim Ducks last season as well. Just 25 years old, Pirri has struggled to find a long-term NHL home, having played with four different teams in his last four seasons. He has a knack for scoring goals, which he was especially adept at in parts of three seasons with the Florida Panthers, but failed to put the puck in the net very often in New York, scoring just eight goals and 18 points total in 60 games. Though $1.1MM is not an extraordinary commitment for a young player with a good shot, the Blueshirts apparently do not feel he is worth that much when they have only limited cap space and more pressing needs to fill this summer. Pirri will again become an intriguing name on the free agent market, as some team takes a chance on an unproven player with one proven quality: goal-scoring.
The scenario with Clendening is a little more puzzling, especially taking into account the Rangers’ extension of Steven Kampfer. Much like Pirri, Clendening too has had a tough time finding his place in the NHL, having been traded three times, claimed on waivers, and non-tendered last season. That comes out to a total of six teams for a player with three years of NHL experience. Yet, Clendening had a career year in New York, posting career-highs in games played (31), points (11), and hits (22). The analytics community was especially fond of Clendening, who had an overwhelmingly positive impact on possession. Unlike Pirri, the Rangers seemed to be a good fit for the 24-year-old. Yet, the team inked the 28-year-old journeyman Kampfer to a two-year, two-way deal worth $650K (just $10,000 less than Clendending’s qualifying offer), when Kampfer is older and far less productive. In fact, the only thing that Kampfer will likely be better than Clendening at in 2017-18 is not being claimed on waivers. Perhaps that is the sole reason the Rangers chose one over the other. If not, it seems to be another evaluation mistake by the New York brass in regards to defense. With more of a bona fide resume after this past season, Clendening too should drum up some interest on the free agent market.
Morning Notes: Foo, DeFazio, Stransky
Spencer Foo has been on the radar of NHL teams for quite some time, and when he declared that he would not return to Union College for his final season the negotiations ramped up. Yesterday on Oilers Now radio with Bob Stauffer (starts around 14:30), Gerry Johansson from The Sports Corporation (Foo’s agency) reported that the undrafted forward has narrowed his list to just a few teams, including the Edmonton Oilers.
Foo grew up in Edmonton and has attended their development camp in the past leading many to believe that they were a front-runner for the Hobey Baker finalist. Foo has a ton of options though, as previous reports indicated that most of the league was interested in him. After scoring 62 points in 38 games as a junior, that interest is hardly misplaced.
- Mark Stepneski gave us a couple of interesting tidbits today, including that Brandon DeFazio has reportedly signed with Kunlun of the KHL. Stepneski is working off an RSport report that has DeFazio signing a one-year contract with the club. The AHL forward had another 20-goal season this year, his third straight. Despite that, he has just two games of NHL experience and will now test his luck in a different professional league.
- Another Texas Stars forward is likely on his way to the KHL, as Matej Stransky is close to a deal with Severstal Cherepovets. Though his KHL rights are actually owned by CSKA Moscow, he’d be transferred after signing a deal according to RSport. Stransky was selected by Dallas in the sixth round of the 2011 draft, but has never made it up to the NHL. He did however lead the AHL Stars in goals this year (27) and is a big heavy winger that looked like he may have a future in an NHL bottom six. The 23-year old is a restricted free agent, and should Dallas qualify him they would retain his rights until he would normally hit NHL unresticted free agency.
Injured Bonino Faces Uncertain Future
The Pittsburgh Penguins have thus far earned the right to not worry too deeply about the summer and the change it will bring. Although a large portion of the core remains locked up, there are serious questions and the team that takes the ice next year will undoubtedly be short a few familiar faces. One of those players who could be on the way out is third-line center Nick Bonino.
Bonino blocked a shot in Game 2 which appeared to do significant damage, as he limped around until play ceased. He somehow gathered the will to return and finish the contest. He was spotted using crutches and with a walking boot on his left foot today according to AP reports. His determination cannot be understated, as there is a solid possibility he is looking to play through broken bones a la Eric Karlsson. He is a game time decision for tomorrow’s Game 3 according to coach Mike Sullivan. That said, this newest injury is just another factor in a larger contract story for the grizzled center.
Facing unrestricted free agency at the age of 29, and hot off yet another solid post-season, there is a strong possibility this will be the most lucrative contract opportunity of his career. The Penguins will be tight up against the cap, and there can be a reasonable assumption that the organization had hoped to have his position filled internally at this juncture. Although surprising Carter Rowney has admirably filled a role as center/wing utility player, it seems quite unlikely that he will be slotted into that shutdown role. He seems more likely to have the 4th line position next opening night. The still-promising Oskar Sundqvist has had what can only be seen as a setback of a season, performing quite poorly in his 10 NHL games this season. The 6’3″ third-rounder filled Pittsburgh fans with hope with an exceptional training camp in 2015, stealing a spot on the roster before being sent down to Wilkes-Barre. However, he has not looked up to task in spot duty, looking sluggish at times, and easily physically dominated at others. With Bonino’s cap-friendly contract drawing in on a close, and Bonino struggling down the stretch, he flubbed an opportunity to impress anyone with 0 points in limited opportunity.
This creates a difficult situation for the Penguins who would have preferred to replace Bonino with a cheaper, younger option. With the highly paid Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel, and Kris Letang, allocating the sort of money Bonino will be commanding is a tough pill to swallow. Even worse – the regular season Bonino has been a model of inconsistency. He went long stretches with no offensive production, and looked noticeably slow in his skating for weeks at a time. His 37 points are certainly not negligible, but it is the second season he has faltered at finding his offensive game. Bonino’s defensive prowess and penalty killing bonafides are often understated, as he has consistently matched up against tough competition with relative success. But in a year where the iconic HBK line sees one member scratched and the other unable to produce with the center, it seems difficult to determine that his role going forward. That said, should he need to be replaced, and the other options are not desirable.
If Bonino does opt to test the market, he would be a hot commodity. Joe Thornton and Martin Hanzal are the only two centers that are easily his superior, and the former has expressed the desire to return to San Jose. Bonino will be due a major raise from his $1.9 MM, if only due to his exceptional playoff performances. Versatile centers are highly valued in this league and it will be difficult for the Penguins to commit to him long term in a way that other teams might not find quite so troublesome. If Bonino were to land outside of Pittsburgh, look to Florida and Calgary to be in the conversation to acquire his services.
The Weakest Position In Free Agency
One of the big discussions going around the hockey world this week has been whether or not a team like the Toronto Maple Leafs should take a chance on an offer sheet for restricted free agent defenseman Colton Parayko. The offer sheet strategy, while allowed by the NHL collective bargaining agreement, is generally frowned upon in the sport. There is an unwritten code that you don’t poach other teams’ young talent. Those who do often pay the price by having their own prospects come under fire. There is also an actual price to pay for the practice, as offer sheets come with a steep compensatory formula. The 2017 compensation levels, just recently announced, dictate that a team would owe a third-round pick for a contract not even worth $2MM annually, while a contract north of $4MM per year would cost a first-rounder plus.
So why would a team like the Leafs entertain going after Parayko? And if they’re going to face the risk of an offer sheet, why Parayko and not another defenseman like Shayne Gostisbehere or Nikita Zadorov or even star forwards like David Pastrnak or Leon Draisaitl? The reason: Parayko represents the best free agent, restricted or unrestricted, at his position – right-shot defenseman.
Calling the right-shot defenseman grouping for this years unrestricted free agency pool “weak” is an understatement. Other than Kevin Shattenkirk, Parayko’s teammate in St. Louis and possibly the biggest name on the market at any position, you would be hard-pressed to find a single top-four defenseman and only a hand full of bona fide starters altogether. Cody Franson, under-utilized in Buffalo the past two years, is likely the next man up and the painstaking wait of the 2015 off-season showed how willing teams were to meet his salary demands. Toronto specifically already has had experience with Franson and know he is not the answer to their struggles. Behind Franson comes half of the Calgary Flames 2016-17 blue line: Dennis Wideman, Deryk Engelland, and trade deadline acquisition Michael Stone. The trio played a combined 165 man-games for the Flames this season, with Engelland and Stone playing each game of their first-round sweep by the Anaheim Ducks, and combined for just 50 points. Stone has the greatest upside, but hasn’t proved himself as a reliable top-four option and has struggled with injuries. The Flames were desperate to get Wideman out of town and Engelland has become a one-dimensional player in recent years. Next, there is Roman Polak, another former Maple Leaf. The team seems to have ruled out re-signing the veteran blue-liner and other teams should follow suit. Yannick Weber, currently playing in the Stanley Cup Final with the Nashville Predators, picked a good year to be a free agent, as his effective albeit unexciting style of play should still pay off in a weak class. After Weber? Matt Tennyson from Carolina? Paul Postma from Winnipeg? That is basically it.
This is why the Parayko-to-Toronto talk will continue. Those teams in need of a right shot near the top of their defensive depth are largely out of luck in 2017. Once Shattenkirk is off the board, which should be right away on July 1st, there are slim pickings for the rest. Best wishes to whatever righty D-needy team misses out on Shattenkirk, Franson, Stone, and Weber. There are simply no options. Unless, of course, you dip into restricted free agency. Beyond Parayko, another option is Pittsburgh’s Justin Schultz,who put up a whopping 51 points in the regular season and has 11 points (and counting) in the playoffs. The Penguins would likely be unable to match an expensive contract for Schultz if he were presented with a lucrative offer sheet. After back-to-back strong campaigns, New Jersey’s Damon Severson has proven to be a legitimate offensive defenseman and could entice the right team. Jake Dotchin had a successful rookie season, but the Lightning have a world of cap problems to solve this summer and would struggle to fit an offer sheet-inflated contract for Dotchin into the mix. Finally, even if both Alex Petrovic and Mark Pysyk survive the Expansion Draft in Florida, the Panthers may simply choose one over the other if an offer sheet were involved. The options are plenty on the restricted side of free agency, but the question remains whether any teams will be bold enough to go that route.
Updated List Of Expiring Draft Rights
According to Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch, the Blue Jackets will not sign either of Sam Ruopp or Markus Soberg, their two remaining draft picks whose rights will expire tomorrow. In early April, we examined the list of players closing in on the expiry date thanks to the help of CapFriendly’s list. Here that list is, with the updated contract situations.
Buffalo Sabres
Devante Stephens (5th round, 2015) — Signed, three years, $743K
Giorgio Estephan (6th round, 2015)
Gustav Possler (5th round, 2013)
Calgary Flames
Riley Bruce (7th round, 2015)
Carolina Hurricanes
Steven Lorentz (7th round, 2015) — Signed, three years, $728K
Oshie Nearing Deal With Caps
According to Sportsnet’s John Shannon in an interview on Sirius XM Radio, T.J. Oshie‘s agent has all but finalized a deal with the Washington Capitals. Considering that Oshie was a top-three UFA forward heading into this off-season, nearing a signing with cash-strapped Washington comes as a bit of a surprise. Oshie had previously stated his desire to remain in America’s capital city, but players are often pushed out in situations such as these. RFA Evgeny Kuznetsov was obviously going to take precedence over the older Oshie, and allotting him cap dollars seemed to place the writing on the wall for T.J.
If he were to return at a discount, it’s difficult to see a player of his caliber making anywhere under $5 MM on a multi-year deal. Perhaps he does less to accommodate his team’s management, but it is quite rare that we see a player take a paycut of more than a million or so. What must be considered is that this is also the crafty Oshie’s opportunity to cash in financially on a career year. It was indeed his fourth straight season breaking 50 points, but only his first with over 30 goals. A lot of that has to do with his unsustainable season shooting percentage of 23.1%, an absurd figure for any player. As an offensive force in an exceptionally poor UFA summer, his value is likely never to be higher.
For the Capitals, if they are able to accommodate him in their internal structure, it would mean quite a few changes coming elsewhere in the lineup. Karl Alzner would be all but guaranteed to move on from the organization, and Kuznetsov’s negotiations may become more heated in hopes of driving price down. Justin Williams was already nearly assured to be on his way to a bidding war in free agency, but this development would virtually secure that fate. It could also imply that a trade of a bigger contract is under consideration by the organization, although the rumblings of potential transactions have thus far been mere conjecture. GM Brian MacLellan will certainly have some shuffling ahead if he hopes to ice a balanced team before next season.