Free Agent Focus: Buffalo Sabres
The free agent period is now less than one month away from opening up and there are several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Here is a breakdown of Buffalo’s free agent situation.
Key Restricted Free Agents:
F Marcus Foligno – At just 25 years old, Foligno will enter his seventh season with the Sabres organization in 2017-18. While his development has been slow, it’s also been steady, finishing each passing season with more points than the year before. Foligno isn’t the player who showed flashes of as a rookie in 2011-12, scoring 13 points in 14 games, but he’s carved out an important role in Buffalo as a reliable top-nine winger. 2016-17 marked a career-high 13 goals for Foligno, helped along by a team-best 13.4% shooting percentage, as well as his first 80+ game season. As always though, Foligno’s true value comes in his physical two-way game, where he had a career-best and team-leading 279 hits, career-high 57 blocked shots, which led all Buffalo forwards, and was a vital member of the penalty kill. Las year, the Sabres signed Foligno to just a one-year, $2.25MM contract, but after again proving his worth as a defensive forward and top-nine contributor, new Buffalo GM Jason Botterill should have no problem giving the homegrown product a multi-year deal worth $2.5-$3MM annually. Even with fellow priority RFA’s Zemgus Girgensons and Johan Larsson in need of raises, the Sabres have plenty of cap space and will give Foligno what he’s worth.
G Robin Lehner – The Sabres have no interest in letting Lehner go, but this off-season they need to either commit to the 25-year-old as their surefire starter or establish that they feel he is just a timeshare goalie at this point. Just two years ago, Buffalo traded a first-round pick to acquire Lehner from the Ottawa Senators. In his first year with the Sabres, he was excellent, posting a .924 save percentage and 2.47 GAA… but in only 21 games. Injuries limited Lehner to only a brief showing in 2015-16, but this past season he was able to see action in 59 games and again played well with a .920 save percentage and 2.68 GAA. With Chad Johnson gone, many expected that Lehner would play more this past season though. However, trade acquisition Anders Nilsson routinely outplayed Lehner all season long. The margin between the two wasn’t wide, but enough so that Nilsson managed to make 26 appearances, including 23 starts. The team has nonetheless stated that Lehner is their guy, but actions speak louder than words. The value and more so the term of Lehner’s contract this summer, as well as their negotiations with Nilsson, will speak volumes about their commitment to their supposed #1.
Other RFAs: F Zemgus Girgensons, F Johan Larsson, F Justin Kea, F Jean Dupuy, F Evan Rodrigues, D Brady Austin, G Linus Ullmark
Key Unrestricted Free Agents:
F Brian Gionta – The Buffalo captain may be 38 years old and have over 1000 NHL games under his belt, but he also just completed a full 82-game season and seventh on the team in scoring. At this point in his career, Gionta is not looking to re-locate and perhaps no team could use his veteran leadership and hockey intelligence more than the Sabres, who have few forwards over 30 and certain players in need of mentoring (i.e. Evander Kane). The Sabres have plenty of cap space to play with and are expected to fill holes throughout the roster via free agency, but they’ll have room to bring back their captain who is still capable of scoring 30-40 points and can play in all situations. He probably won’t get another three-year, $12.75MM contract, but if Gionta wants to be back, he will be.
G Anders Nilsson – The flip side of the situation with Lehner is that of Nilsson. Just a little over a year older than Lehner, Nilsson was finally given legitimate responsibility for the first time in his NHL career in 2016-17 and he flourished. His .923 save percentage and .267 GAA were just marginally better than Lehner, but a major step up from his previous performances. Perhaps the Sabres, who truly do need to commit to Lehner or not, are afraid that re-signing Nilsson would send the wrong message, but he has definitely earned that consideration. If the Sabres don’t bring back Nilsson, they’ll have to search for a veteran backup to the oft-injured Lehner anyway. It’s not a simple problem and how Boterill solves it will impact his start with the organization.
Other UFAs: D Cody Franson, D Dmitry Kulikov, D Taylor Fedun, D Erik Burgdoerfer, D Mat Bodie, F Derek Grant, F Cole Schneider, F Cal O’Reilly
Projected Cap Space: The Sabres currently have only $50.2MM committed to 2017-18 contracts by way of 11 forwards and five defensemen. (CapFriendly) The extensions for RFA’s Lehner, Foligno, Girgensons, and Larsson, all of whom will be safe from expansion, as well as roster hopefuls Alexander Nylander and Brady Austin will eat up some of that space. However, even if the cap ceiling remains at $73MM, Buffalo has nearly $23MM of space to work with and if Matt Moulson is an expansion casualty, as has been rumored, there’s another $5MM in relief. That should give them more than enough space to accommodate those young players, re-sign Gionta, extend or replace Nilsson, and still have the flexibility to explore the free agent market for better fits on the blue line than Franson or Kulikov and a game-changer up front.
Rangers Not Expected To Qualify Clendening Or Pirri
Seemingly minor news in a major article from the New York Post’s Larry Brooks today may have a substantial impact on the New York Rangers and this summer’s free agent market. Brooks reports that the New York Rangers do not plan to extend qualifying offers to impending restricted free agents Adam Clendening and Brandon Pirri. If restricted free agents are not tendered a qualifying offer, they become unrestricted free agents. The qualifying offer process, while not straightforward , is relatively pain-free for the team. For 2017, players must be offered 110% of their previous year’s salary if they made $660K or less last season, 105% if they made between $660K and $1MM, and 100% if they made over $1MM. The offer must also be a one-way contract if the player played in 180 games over the past three seasons, 60 games in 2016-17, and did not clear waivers this past season. While this may sound convoluted, it simply means that the New York Rangers only had to offer Clendening a two-way contract worth $660K, as he made $600K this past season and played in only 31 games, and Pirri a two-way contract worth $1.1MM, as he made $1.1MM this past season and played in only 170 games over the past three seasons, in order to maintain their negotiating rights. It seems as though the Rangers do not want to shoulder that burden however.
This is a familiar situation for Pirri, who was non-tendered by the Anaheim Ducks last season as well. Just 25 years old, Pirri has struggled to find a long-term NHL home, having played with four different teams in his last four seasons. He has a knack for scoring goals, which he was especially adept at in parts of three seasons with the Florida Panthers, but failed to put the puck in the net very often in New York, scoring just eight goals and 18 points total in 60 games. Though $1.1MM is not an extraordinary commitment for a young player with a good shot, the Blueshirts apparently do not feel he is worth that much when they have only limited cap space and more pressing needs to fill this summer. Pirri will again become an intriguing name on the free agent market, as some team takes a chance on an unproven player with one proven quality: goal-scoring.
The scenario with Clendening is a little more puzzling, especially taking into account the Rangers’ extension of Steven Kampfer. Much like Pirri, Clendening too has had a tough time finding his place in the NHL, having been traded three times, claimed on waivers, and non-tendered last season. That comes out to a total of six teams for a player with three years of NHL experience. Yet, Clendening had a career year in New York, posting career-highs in games played (31), points (11), and hits (22). The analytics community was especially fond of Clendening, who had an overwhelmingly positive impact on possession. Unlike Pirri, the Rangers seemed to be a good fit for the 24-year-old. Yet, the team inked the 28-year-old journeyman Kampfer to a two-year, two-way deal worth $650K (just $10,000 less than Clendending’s qualifying offer), when Kampfer is older and far less productive. In fact, the only thing that Kampfer will likely be better than Clendening at in 2017-18 is not being claimed on waivers. Perhaps that is the sole reason the Rangers chose one over the other. If not, it seems to be another evaluation mistake by the New York brass in regards to defense. With more of a bona fide resume after this past season, Clendening too should drum up some interest on the free agent market.
Morning Notes: Foo, DeFazio, Stransky
Spencer Foo has been on the radar of NHL teams for quite some time, and when he declared that he would not return to Union College for his final season the negotiations ramped up. Yesterday on Oilers Now radio with Bob Stauffer (starts around 14:30), Gerry Johansson from The Sports Corporation (Foo’s agency) reported that the undrafted forward has narrowed his list to just a few teams, including the Edmonton Oilers.
Foo grew up in Edmonton and has attended their development camp in the past leading many to believe that they were a front-runner for the Hobey Baker finalist. Foo has a ton of options though, as previous reports indicated that most of the league was interested in him. After scoring 62 points in 38 games as a junior, that interest is hardly misplaced.
- Mark Stepneski gave us a couple of interesting tidbits today, including that Brandon DeFazio has reportedly signed with Kunlun of the KHL. Stepneski is working off an RSport report that has DeFazio signing a one-year contract with the club. The AHL forward had another 20-goal season this year, his third straight. Despite that, he has just two games of NHL experience and will now test his luck in a different professional league.
- Another Texas Stars forward is likely on his way to the KHL, as Matej Stransky is close to a deal with Severstal Cherepovets. Though his KHL rights are actually owned by CSKA Moscow, he’d be transferred after signing a deal according to RSport. Stransky was selected by Dallas in the sixth round of the 2011 draft, but has never made it up to the NHL. He did however lead the AHL Stars in goals this year (27) and is a big heavy winger that looked like he may have a future in an NHL bottom six. The 23-year old is a restricted free agent, and should Dallas qualify him they would retain his rights until he would normally hit NHL unresticted free agency.
Injured Bonino Faces Uncertain Future
The Pittsburgh Penguins have thus far earned the right to not worry too deeply about the summer and the change it will bring. Although a large portion of the core remains locked up, there are serious questions and the team that takes the ice next year will undoubtedly be short a few familiar faces. One of those players who could be on the way out is third-line center Nick Bonino.
Bonino blocked a shot in Game 2 which appeared to do significant damage, as he limped around until play ceased. He somehow gathered the will to return and finish the contest. He was spotted using crutches and with a walking boot on his left foot today according to AP reports. His determination cannot be understated, as there is a solid possibility he is looking to play through broken bones a la Eric Karlsson. He is a game time decision for tomorrow’s Game 3 according to coach Mike Sullivan. That said, this newest injury is just another factor in a larger contract story for the grizzled center.
Facing unrestricted free agency at the age of 29, and hot off yet another solid post-season, there is a strong possibility this will be the most lucrative contract opportunity of his career. The Penguins will be tight up against the cap, and there can be a reasonable assumption that the organization had hoped to have his position filled internally at this juncture. Although surprising Carter Rowney has admirably filled a role as center/wing utility player, it seems quite unlikely that he will be slotted into that shutdown role. He seems more likely to have the 4th line position next opening night. The still-promising Oskar Sundqvist has had what can only be seen as a setback of a season, performing quite poorly in his 10 NHL games this season. The 6’3″ third-rounder filled Pittsburgh fans with hope with an exceptional training camp in 2015, stealing a spot on the roster before being sent down to Wilkes-Barre. However, he has not looked up to task in spot duty, looking sluggish at times, and easily physically dominated at others. With Bonino’s cap-friendly contract drawing in on a close, and Bonino struggling down the stretch, he flubbed an opportunity to impress anyone with 0 points in limited opportunity.
This creates a difficult situation for the Penguins who would have preferred to replace Bonino with a cheaper, younger option. With the highly paid Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel, and Kris Letang, allocating the sort of money Bonino will be commanding is a tough pill to swallow. Even worse – the regular season Bonino has been a model of inconsistency. He went long stretches with no offensive production, and looked noticeably slow in his skating for weeks at a time. His 37 points are certainly not negligible, but it is the second season he has faltered at finding his offensive game. Bonino’s defensive prowess and penalty killing bonafides are often understated, as he has consistently matched up against tough competition with relative success. But in a year where the iconic HBK line sees one member scratched and the other unable to produce with the center, it seems difficult to determine that his role going forward. That said, should he need to be replaced, and the other options are not desirable.
If Bonino does opt to test the market, he would be a hot commodity. Joe Thornton and Martin Hanzal are the only two centers that are easily his superior, and the former has expressed the desire to return to San Jose. Bonino will be due a major raise from his $1.9 MM, if only due to his exceptional playoff performances. Versatile centers are highly valued in this league and it will be difficult for the Penguins to commit to him long term in a way that other teams might not find quite so troublesome. If Bonino were to land outside of Pittsburgh, look to Florida and Calgary to be in the conversation to acquire his services.
The Weakest Position In Free Agency
One of the big discussions going around the hockey world this week has been whether or not a team like the Toronto Maple Leafs should take a chance on an offer sheet for restricted free agent defenseman Colton Parayko. The offer sheet strategy, while allowed by the NHL collective bargaining agreement, is generally frowned upon in the sport. There is an unwritten code that you don’t poach other teams’ young talent. Those who do often pay the price by having their own prospects come under fire. There is also an actual price to pay for the practice, as offer sheets come with a steep compensatory formula. The 2017 compensation levels, just recently announced, dictate that a team would owe a third-round pick for a contract not even worth $2MM annually, while a contract north of $4MM per year would cost a first-rounder plus.
So why would a team like the Leafs entertain going after Parayko? And if they’re going to face the risk of an offer sheet, why Parayko and not another defenseman like Shayne Gostisbehere or Nikita Zadorov or even star forwards like David Pastrnak or Leon Draisaitl? The reason: Parayko represents the best free agent, restricted or unrestricted, at his position – right-shot defenseman.
Calling the right-shot defenseman grouping for this years unrestricted free agency pool “weak” is an understatement. Other than Kevin Shattenkirk, Parayko’s teammate in St. Louis and possibly the biggest name on the market at any position, you would be hard-pressed to find a single top-four defenseman and only a hand full of bona fide starters altogether. Cody Franson, under-utilized in Buffalo the past two years, is likely the next man up and the painstaking wait of the 2015 off-season showed how willing teams were to meet his salary demands. Toronto specifically already has had experience with Franson and know he is not the answer to their struggles. Behind Franson comes half of the Calgary Flames 2016-17 blue line: Dennis Wideman, Deryk Engelland, and trade deadline acquisition Michael Stone. The trio played a combined 165 man-games for the Flames this season, with Engelland and Stone playing each game of their first-round sweep by the Anaheim Ducks, and combined for just 50 points. Stone has the greatest upside, but hasn’t proved himself as a reliable top-four option and has struggled with injuries. The Flames were desperate to get Wideman out of town and Engelland has become a one-dimensional player in recent years. Next, there is Roman Polak, another former Maple Leaf. The team seems to have ruled out re-signing the veteran blue-liner and other teams should follow suit. Yannick Weber, currently playing in the Stanley Cup Final with the Nashville Predators, picked a good year to be a free agent, as his effective albeit unexciting style of play should still pay off in a weak class. After Weber? Matt Tennyson from Carolina? Paul Postma from Winnipeg? That is basically it.
This is why the Parayko-to-Toronto talk will continue. Those teams in need of a right shot near the top of their defensive depth are largely out of luck in 2017. Once Shattenkirk is off the board, which should be right away on July 1st, there are slim pickings for the rest. Best wishes to whatever righty D-needy team misses out on Shattenkirk, Franson, Stone, and Weber. There are simply no options. Unless, of course, you dip into restricted free agency. Beyond Parayko, another option is Pittsburgh’s Justin Schultz,who put up a whopping 51 points in the regular season and has 11 points (and counting) in the playoffs. The Penguins would likely be unable to match an expensive contract for Schultz if he were presented with a lucrative offer sheet. After back-to-back strong campaigns, New Jersey’s Damon Severson has proven to be a legitimate offensive defenseman and could entice the right team. Jake Dotchin had a successful rookie season, but the Lightning have a world of cap problems to solve this summer and would struggle to fit an offer sheet-inflated contract for Dotchin into the mix. Finally, even if both Alex Petrovic and Mark Pysyk survive the Expansion Draft in Florida, the Panthers may simply choose one over the other if an offer sheet were involved. The options are plenty on the restricted side of free agency, but the question remains whether any teams will be bold enough to go that route.
Updated List Of Expiring Draft Rights
According to Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch, the Blue Jackets will not sign either of Sam Ruopp or Markus Soberg, their two remaining draft picks whose rights will expire tomorrow. In early April, we examined the list of players closing in on the expiry date thanks to the help of CapFriendly’s list. Here that list is, with the updated contract situations.
Buffalo Sabres
Devante Stephens (5th round, 2015) — Signed, three years, $743K
Giorgio Estephan (6th round, 2015)
Gustav Possler (5th round, 2013)
Calgary Flames
Riley Bruce (7th round, 2015)
Carolina Hurricanes
Steven Lorentz (7th round, 2015) — Signed, three years, $728K
Oshie Nearing Deal With Caps
According to Sportsnet’s John Shannon in an interview on Sirius XM Radio, T.J. Oshie‘s agent has all but finalized a deal with the Washington Capitals. Considering that Oshie was a top-three UFA forward heading into this off-season, nearing a signing with cash-strapped Washington comes as a bit of a surprise. Oshie had previously stated his desire to remain in America’s capital city, but players are often pushed out in situations such as these. RFA Evgeny Kuznetsov was obviously going to take precedence over the older Oshie, and allotting him cap dollars seemed to place the writing on the wall for T.J.
If he were to return at a discount, it’s difficult to see a player of his caliber making anywhere under $5 MM on a multi-year deal. Perhaps he does less to accommodate his team’s management, but it is quite rare that we see a player take a paycut of more than a million or so. What must be considered is that this is also the crafty Oshie’s opportunity to cash in financially on a career year. It was indeed his fourth straight season breaking 50 points, but only his first with over 30 goals. A lot of that has to do with his unsustainable season shooting percentage of 23.1%, an absurd figure for any player. As an offensive force in an exceptionally poor UFA summer, his value is likely never to be higher.
For the Capitals, if they are able to accommodate him in their internal structure, it would mean quite a few changes coming elsewhere in the lineup. Karl Alzner would be all but guaranteed to move on from the organization, and Kuznetsov’s negotiations may become more heated in hopes of driving price down. Justin Williams was already nearly assured to be on his way to a bidding war in free agency, but this development would virtually secure that fate. It could also imply that a trade of a bigger contract is under consideration by the organization, although the rumblings of potential transactions have thus far been mere conjecture. GM Brian MacLellan will certainly have some shuffling ahead if he hopes to ice a balanced team before next season.
Expansion Primer: Buffalo Sabres
Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
After finishing the 2015-16 season with 81 points (a 27 point increase on the previous year) a Stanley Cup-winning coach and a budding superstar who had scored 56 points as a teenager, the Buffalo Sabres felt pretty good about their future. So they went out and gave a 28-year old Kyle Okposo a seven-year, $42MM deal, traded for Dmitry Kulikov and held onto the off-ice troublemaker Evander Kane. It looked like they would compete for the playoffs this season, but the optimism wasn’t held for long.
Decimated by injury, the team couldn’t put it together even after Eichel’s mid-season return and would finish with just 78 points. They now head into this offseason with a much different outlook, clearing house and bringing in first-time GM (save for a short interim period in Pittsburgh) Jason Botterill to hire coaches for both the NHL and AHL clubs. They’ll pick eighth once again in this year’s entry draft and have quite a lot of picks in the first few rounds, though are looking to compete next season and catch up with the success that Edmonton and Toronto realized this season. In terms of expansion, they find themselves in a pretty good spot because many of their prized possessions are still ineligible for selection.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Ryan O’Reilly, Kyle Okposo (NMC), Evander Kane, Matt Moulson, Tyler Ennis, Nicolas Deslauriers, William Carrier, Zemgus Girgensons, Justin Kea, Marcus Foligno, Johan Larsson
Defensemen:
Rasmus Ristolainen, Zach Bogosian, Josh Gorges, Jake McCabe, Justin Falk, Brady Austin
Goaltenders:
Notable Exemptions
Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, Alexander Nylander, Nicholas Baptiste, C.J. Smith, Hudson Fasching, Brendan Guhle, Justin Bailey, Viktor Antipin
Key Decisions
The Sabres have no need to go with the eight skater route unless they make a move for a defenseman prior to the draft, and even then it would mean exposing some of their forwards for no reason. With Franson and Kulikov both headed to free agency, there isn’t a glut of defenders to protect this season. Their biggest decisions will be with the last couple of spots up front, for which there are some interesting candidates.
Obviously O’Reilly will be protected, as he’s likely the team’s second best forward and is still just entering his prime. Though the trade and contract hasn’t worked out exactly as Buffalo had hoped, the 26-year old is still an excellent center capable of competing among the elite players of the game. Okposo too will be protected, though his no-movement clause doesn’t give much chance otherwise. He had a scary bout in the hospital recently, but he is apparently on the road to recovery and should be ready for next season. Kane, for all his trouble outside of the rink is still an effective scoring threat inside of it and will be protected. Whether he starts next year in Buffalo may be another story, but the team won’t just give him away for free. 
The interesting decisions come in the next few slots. It’s been two years now since Ennis was an effective scorer in the league, dealing with injury and ineffectiveness throughout the year. With just 24 points in 74 games combined over two seasons, his $4.6MM cap-hit looks incredibly high. There are only two more seasons on it, but like Moulson who is in a similar situation, Ennis just doesn’t produce at a high enough level anymore to warrant the deal. The Sabres could leave him available, or protect him and hope for a big bounce-back year in his age-28 season. Similar things could be said for Foligno and Girgensons, who still haven’t found that next level in their offensive production. They each are solid NHL players, and have room to grow but are both restricted free agents this summer and decisions will have to be made on their future with the club.
Among the other interesting young players are Larsson and Carrier, both of whom are second-round picks who have shown snippets of their potential as solid NHL contributors. Larsson missed most of this season due to injury, while Carrier made his NHL debut and stuck for 41 games. Perhaps Botterill believes that one of them has more to give offensively, or could be part of a shutdown line in the future. Vegas would certainly take a risk on either one as they’ve already shown they’re at least capable of staying in an NHL lineup.
On defense, there isn’t much to decide outside of perhaps what to do if Gorges is selected. It would be hard to see him earn a protection slot, but the veteran still did log valuable minutes for the Sabres this season. The 32-year old defensive specialist has just one year left on his contract, but could be part of a leadership group in Vegas should they decide he’s worth it.
In net, Lehner will be protected and given the reins to the team once again. Ullmark does pose an interesting option for Vegas, as he has actually posted a strong .913 save percentage in 21 NHL starts. At just 23 he’s ready to take on a bigger role and should spend most of the season in the NHL if Anders Nilsson isn’t retained this summer.
Speaking of Nilsson, he represents one of the possible free agent acquisitions that Vegas could sign prior to the draft if they choose. That would mean forfeiting their selection from Buffalo, but perhaps he or one of the free agent defensemen—Franson or Kulikov—would be worth it. Franson is still a good possession player with solid offensive upside, even if he does need sheltering at times from tough defensive matchups. With such a lack of right-handed shot defensemen on the market, perhaps he would be appealing to the young Vegas club. Giving up their selection from Buffalo would be tough though, and would need them to believe a bidding war of sorts would occur after July 1st—something that for any of the Sabres’ free agents would be hard to believe.
Projected Protection List
F Kyle Okposo (NMC)
F Ryan O’Reilly
F Evander Kane
F Zemgus Girgensons
F Marcus Foligno
F Johan Larsson
F William Carrier
D Rasmus Ristolainen
D Zach Bogosian
D Jake McCabe
As Botterill continues to try and reshape the team into what he wants going forward, leaving exposed the big, underperforming cap-hits of Ennis and Moulson seems like the way to go, even if it does give up the chance of a bounce-back. A 27-year old, three-time 20-goal man would be tough to watch walk out the door, but the Golden Knights would almost certainly jump on Carrier or Larsson if left unprotected.
There is always a chance that the team moves Kane or another forward before the draft, opening up another slot for them to protect. Like many other teams that need defense though, acquiring one before the expansion draft from a worried club would put one of your own at risk. While Bogosian has been somewhat of a disappointment since he arrived from Winnipeg, giving him up for free seems a bit short-sighted. That means a deal for one of the surplus Anaheim defenders, or a Minnesota blueliner doesn’t seem in the cards in the next few weeks.
One thing to note is that newly signed Viktor Antipin is not eligible for the draft, despite his extensive experience in the KHL. The years of professional experience he gained in Russia don’t count towards the expansion draft requirements because he wasn’t playing them under an NHL Standard Player Contract (SPC). He’s a first year pro, and will be untouchable in the draft.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Cam Fowler, Ducks Set To Resume Contract Talks
After being eliminated by the Nashville Predators, the Anaheim Ducks are set to start up talks with Cam Fowler regarding a possible extension again, reports Pierre LeBrun of TSN. LeBrun tweets that “all signs point toward an extension” at this point. Just recently Elliotte Friedman was on NHL Network to discuss the possibility of Fowler hitting the open market in the summer of 2018, saying that he could earn as much as $56MM should he reach unrestricted free agency. 
Fowler wouldn’t technically be able to sign an extension until July 1st when there is just one year remaining on his deal at $4MM, but the two sides could certainly come to an agreement of sorts prior to that. Just a year removed from a ton of trade speculation surrounding the young defender, the team now seems ready to commit long-term. Fowler had an outstanding year, scoring 11 goals and registering 39 points in almost 25 minutes a night. He was used in all situations as a #1 defender, paired mostly with Sami Vatanen (though the Ducks shuffled their pairings often).
While Friedman’s report does sound a little high—$8MM per season would put him behind just P.K. Subban and Brent Burns in terms of cap-hit among defenders—Fowler would be hitting the open market a year from now at just 26 with an eight-year track record of success. His youth, consistency and offensive upside would make him one of the most sought-after free agents on the marketplace (perhaps only behind John Tavares).
His extension talks obviously impacts what the Ducks will do prior to the expansion draft, as they don’t want to lose Josh Manson (who currently projects as the odd man out) for nothing. Forcing a Vatanan or Manson trade only to see Fowler walk out the door in a year would devastate the Ducks defense group, even with the promising young starts of Brandon Montour, Shea Theodore and Jacob Larsson. There are just a few weeks to go before the draft, and time is running out for the Ducks to make a decision, provided they haven’t already worked out a deal with Vegas to select a different player.
An extension for Fowler isn’t the easiest thing to fit into the Ducks salary structure though. Even as Kevin Bieksa and Clayton Stoner come off the books next summer, both Montour and Theodore will need new deals as they exit their entry-level contracts, while Manson will be arbitration eligible for the first time. What it would do though, is provide some certainty that the left-handed duo of Fowler and Lindholm are locked in long-term, allowing you to pick and choose the other four pieces around them. Simon Despres, who resumed skating with the team in the playoffs but is still out indefinitely is a wildcard in the whole scenario who still holds a long-term deal that pays him $3.7MM per season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
The Ducks’ Defensive Situation
Coming off a Game 6 loss to the Nashville Predators, the Anaheim Ducks will now turn their attention to what should be an interesting off-season.
Former NHL player and TSN insider Ray Ferraro appeared on TSN 1260 on Wednesday afternoon; he called the Ducks’ loss “bitterly disappointing” considering the teams that were left. Ferraro believes that the Ducks’ window of contention is closed, saying “this was their year” to win.
Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Ryan Kesler will count for $23.75MM per season until 2021 (Kesler until 2022). All three men are 32, on the precipice of slowing down. Perry had a poor year this season, scoring just 19 goals in the regular season and four in the playoffs while shooting well-below his career average. ESPN’s Craig Custance suggested the Ducks explore trading Perry this summer. While the “nuclear option” could be difficult because of Perry’s high salary, he believes that teams would still be interested due to his experience and the expectation that he should score 30-plus goals next season.
The Ducks’ defense is much younger, however. The Ducks top-six defensemen are all under the age of 25. Despite Kevin Bieksa drawing back in the lineup over Shea Theodore late in the playoffs, the 35-year-old Bieksa is clearly the odd-man out in Anaheim. The Ducks will need to do something about the veteran, who has a $4MM price tag and a no-move clause. At the very minimum, he’ll need to be convinced to waive his NMC ahead of the expansion draft.
Hampus Lindholm and Cam Fowler are locks for protection, while Brandon Montour and Theodore are exempt. The Ducks will need to choose between Sami Vatanen and Josh Manson to protect with their third spot, provided they go 7-3-1. GM Bob Murray will look to make a trade to avoid losing a very good player for nothing. The team has six forwards that they want to protect, so a defenseman-for-forward swap would make a lot of sense. Custance suggests Jonathan Drouin as a potential target, as there have been reports that Tampa Bay is interested in moving him for a right-handed defenseman. Vatanen’s no-trade clause doesn’t kick in for another two years, which gives the Ducks some freedom.
Speaking of Fowler, he’s a year away from unrestricted free agency and will need to be extended. It’s a big change from last summer, where it was widely expected that he would be traded for offensive help. The venerable Elliotte Friedman from Sportsnet appeared on the NHL Network (transcribed by Chris Nichols of FanRag), and said a few NHL GMs that he spoke to believe Fowler would get seven years at $8MM. In that case, the Ducks have two choices: trade him, or try to get him to take a discount. Fowler has no clauses in his contract, so the Ducks would have free reign to trade him if it came to that. The latter option is very likely more appealing to Anaheim.
The Ducks’ young, skilled defense will give them options to boost their aging forward core; Murray will have to make some moves to keep his team’s Cup contention window open.