The Best Fits For Matt Duchene
Despite the tumultuous off-season for Matt Duchene and the Colorado Avalanche, GM Joe Sakic fully expects him to show up to training camp. At least, that’s what he told BSN Denver’s Adrian Dater. “He’s under contract and I expect him to be here” Sakic said, “Not everybody always comes to camp early. It’s not for me to (say), but I assume on the 14th, he’ll be here.” Sakic is referring to Duchene being one of only two Avs players under contract not to participate in captain’s practice last week. Holdouts may be rare in the NHL, but Duchene’s words and actions this summer have painted a pretty clear picture of a player who would like to leave Colorado.
If Duchene has reached his wit’s end with the trade rumors that have persisted since late 2016 and truly has no intention of suiting up for the Avalanche again, Sakic has just a few days left to trade him before this begins to enter holdout territory. The perceived problem all along is that Sakic has not dropped the asking price that has long been considered a young top-four defenseman, a first round pick, and one or two more young roster players or prospects. Not only do few (read: any) NHL teams have a young top-four blue liner to spare, but it’s hard to imagine anyone giving up such a package for Duchene, who has just two seasons remaining on his contract and is coming off a down 2016-17 season. Duchene had scored 55 or more points in five of his seven NHL seasons entering last year – and easily would have made it six had the the 2012-13 lockout-shorten seasoned been extended – yet, he ended up with only 41 points and an egregious -34 rating last season; a low point for both he and the Avalanche franchise.
Logic would seem to indicate that, holdout or not, Sakic has to continue listening to offers for Duchene and needs to lower an unreasonable asking price. TSN recently released their list of the top nine NHL trade candidates this season, with Duchene obviously at the top. They list the Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Islanders, Montreal Canadiens, Boston Bruins, Nashville Predators, and Pittsburgh Penguins as the mostly likely destinations for Duchene. The Carolina Hurricanes and San Jose Sharks have also been in the rumor mix this summer.
Right away, a few of those options can have their odds discounted. Having just traded away Travis Hamonic and traded for Jordan Eberle, the New York Islanders and their estimated $3MM in cap space likely lack the capacity and the desire to pony up for Duchene at this point. The Isles are still deep on defense, but with Thomas Hickey and Dennis Seidenberg approaching free agency next year, trading yet another young defenseman like Calvin de Haan, Adam Pelech or Ryan Pulock could put the team in hole. Without one of those three, it is hard to see New York making a suitable offer. The defending two-time Cup champs are in a similar situation. While many Pens fans would love to see the embarrassment of riches of Duchene as the third line center behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh too lacks the cap space, currently about $3.25MM, and the pieces to get the job done. That is, unless Sakic is keen on Olli Maatta or the Penguins offer up Brian Dumoulin, Justin Schultz, or an overwhelming offer of picks and prospects including Derrick Pouliot and enough salary to offset Duchene. It’s a series of unlikely scenarios. Additionally, the Montreal Canadiens lack anything remotely close to a young top four defenseman. Duchene would be a great fit for the Habs, but they simply don’t have the pieces.
The Hurricanes and Bruins certainly have the pieces to acquire Duchene, but it seems unlikely that either will be the team to finally do it. Boston was in talks with Colorado last year, but balked at the ask of a package including Charlie McAvoy or Brandon Carlo and wouldn’t be willing to move Torey Krug either. If the price drops, the B’s have talented young defenders like Jakob Zboril, Jeremy Lauzon, Ryan Lindgren, and 2017 first rounder Uhro Vaakanainen waiting in the wings, but even if that was enough, the Bruins’ quiet off-season has indicated that they would like to move forward with their own young players this season. Carolina, on the other hand, is a Duchene-caliber player away from being a true contender and would love to add someone with his ability. However, GM Ron Francis has made it clear that he does not want to trade any of his defensemen. That hasn’t stopped TSN for listing “a Carolina defenseman” as one of their top trade candidates, but as of now there is no reason to think any of Justin Faulk, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, or Noah Hanifin are going anywhere. Like Boston, Carolina still has solid pieces if the price drops, such as Haydn Fleury and Jake Bean, but another thought has been whispered this summer that may take Carolina out of the Duchene race altogether. Since acquiring Trevor van Riemsdyk from the Vegas Golden Knights back in June, a player who by all accounts they didn’t really need, many have speculated that Carolina is looking to make a run at 2018 premiere free agent James van Riemsdyk, to bring in the scoring power forward that they desperately desire.
The Blue Jackets and Sharks would be ideal landing spots for Duchene, but both teams would need to get creative with their offers. Both squads have a need for a scoring forward, the cap space to take him on and plenty of talented defensemen, but what they would be willing up on the blue line is not exactly what Colorado desires. There is no way that Columbus includes Zach Werenski or Seth Jones in a deal, but could be open to trading David Savard or Ryan Murray. However, each have a caveat. Savard, while a solid top-four talent, has had durability issues and difficulty with consistent production over the past couple of years. While he would be a great addition to any defense, that may not be what Sakic is looking to get back. Murray, while injury prone, is a highly-skilled young rearguard, but, amazingly, the 24-year-old will be an unrestricted free agent next summer. Any deal involving Murray would first have to include a long-term extension with the league’s worst team. Columbus’ best chance of getting Duchene likely involves a package with top defensive prospect Gabriel Carlsson and a young roster player like Josh Anderson or Oliver Bjorkstrand. San Jose also has a few untouchables on defense, namely superstars Brent Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Colorado also wouldn’t be interested in veterans Paul Martin and Justin Braun. That leaves Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo as the top options. While both have shown top-four potential, they have largely played shutdown roles in their young careers and bring little offensive upside. Like Savard, one would think that Sakic has a little more in mind for the Duchene return than stay-at-home defenders like Dillon and DeMelo. If the Sharks package versatile puck-moving D-prospect Jeremy Roy with either though, then talks could really get started. A package that starts like that and ends with a first-round pick and one of San Jose’s many young forwards could be enough to seal the deal.
Yet, the top candidate to bring in Duchene is likely the reigning Western Conference champs. No, the Predators are not moving any of Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, or Mattias Ekholm, but the trick up their sleeve is top prospect Dante Fabbro. A junior teammate of Colorado top prospect Tyson Jost, Fabbro is considered one of the best prospects in hockey and should step into a top four role immediately when he leaves Boston University, much like Charlie McAvoy, who Sakic already targeted in Boston. Fabbro is not just a top-four defenseman, but a potential future #1 or at least a great option to pair with Cale Makar down the road. Sakic would be hard-pressed to find more upside up for grabs than Fabbro, but the Predators are set long-term on the blue line and desperately need to recoup the scoring lost in the Expansion Draft with the selection of James Neal. Fabbro, plus a young forward like Colton Sissons, Frederick Gaudreau, or Pontus Aberg, plus a first rounder and another pick or prospect, and Duchene could surely be on his way to Nashville.
Only time will tell where Duchene ends up, but the best case scenario for all parties is for that destination to not be Denver, Colorado for much longer. Sakic must and will eventually lower his asking price and someone will meet those demands. Could it be Nashville, Columbus, or San Jose? Definitely. Could it be Boston or Carolina? The Islanders or the Penguins? Possibly. Someone totally off the board? Of course. For such a talked-about topic, there is still so much uncertainty surrounding the situation. The next step will be to see if Duchene shows up to camp on Thursday. That decision could have a resounding effect on the trade process.
Poll: Which PTO Has The Best Chance Of Making An NHL Roster?
Teams all over the league are starting to hand out professional tryouts, with Jyrki Jokipakka being the latest with the Washington Capitals. Every year we see some veteran players looking for one last chance, and AHL tweeners trying to claw their way into the NHL. Many of the names that have been given PTOs already won’t play in the NHL this season, and some of them may not play professional hockey at all.
Still, there are almost always a few that earn themselves an NHL contract either with the team whose camp they’re attending, or somewhere else around the league. Kris Versteeg parlayed a PTO with the Edmonton Oilers into a contract with the Calgary Flames last year, and was important enough that he warranted an extension this summer.
17 tryouts have officially been handed out up to this point, with some interesting names among them. Players like David Booth and Ryan Malone have had a lot of success at the NHL level but have been away for several years, while others like Chris Lee are trying to prove that they’ve been overlooked for some time. Who do you think is the most likely to earn a contract at the end of training camp? You can select as many players as you want from the list of names, and leave a comment if you think they’ll sign somewhere else around the league.
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Jack Skille Expected To Sign In KHL
Running out of time to find an NHL contract before the puck drops on the 2017-18 season, another veteran has taken the quiet off-season as a sign to move on. TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that free agent forward Jack Skille is expected to sign with Dinamo Minsk of the KHL in the coming days. The 30-year-old’s decision to continue his career overseas comes a decade after making his NHL debut in 2007.
Skille was selected #7 overall by the Chicago Blackhawks in 2005 and made the jump to the NHL two years later after a short stint with the University of Wisconsin. Although Skille has never lived up to his draft slot, the two-way winger has nevertheless found an NHL contract in each of the last ten seasons. After three seasons in Chicago, spent mostly with the AHL’s Rockford Ice Hogs, Skille was traded to the Florida Panthers in 2011 and there developed into a bona fide NHLer. Skille has only played in 22 AHL games since his trade to Florida, instead spending parts of three seasons with the Panthers, two seasons with the Columbus Blue Jackets, and most recently a year apiece with the Colorado Avalanche and Vancouver Canucks. Through 368 NHL games, Skille registered 84 points, including a career-high eight goals with the Avs just two years ago, but made his name not by his offense, but by his grit and toughness, his ability to win battles along the boards, and his quickness and tendency to always be in position to make a defensive play. Skille’s impressive ability to find an NHL gig as a reliable depth player is over for now, but may not be over for good, depending on his play in Europe.
With Minsk, Skille steps into a position where he will be relied on more for offense than any other time in his pro career and could also fill a leadership role. He also won’t be alone in Belarus though; he joins a squad with several NHL veterans such as Rob Klinkhammer, Quinton Howden, Justin Fontaine, Marc-Andre Gragnani, and new starting goalie Jhonas Enroth. The team is set to make some moves this season and Skille adds yet another talented contributor to the mix. If Minsk makes a leap up the standings in 2017-18 with Skille leading the charge in all three zones, there is little doubt that he will again draw interest from NHL teams next summer and beyond as a dependable and versatile depth option.
Thomas Vanek Considering Several Options
We haven’t heard much about the interest in Thomas Vanek this summer, as the talented offensive forward remains unsigned now through August. Today though, Michael Russo of the Star Tribune caught up with Vanek, who says he’s looking at a few options including waiting for the Detroit Red Wings. Vanek admits that he’ll have to make a final decision soon.
As we’ve looked at in the past, Vanek doesn’t have the same incentive to delay a signing in order to play in the Olympics, as Austria didn’t qualify for the event. He told Russo that he’s not used to waiting this long for a contract, and it’s true; both of his last UFA contracts were signed on July 1st. There is likely several teams with interest, but it’s unclear what kind of guarantee the 33-year old will receive.
Remember that since Vanek played all of last season and isn’t 35 yet, he’s ineligible for any incentive-based contract, meaning he’ll have to settle for whatever salary is offered to him. Though teams are well aware of his offensive upside, he isn’t a strong skater and comes with considerable defensive deficiencies. Teams that have considerable depth could likely shelter his minutes to get out positive production, or rebuilding squads could use him as trade deadline bait like Detroit last season. The Red Wings received a third-round pick and Dylan McIlrath for Vanek at the deadline last season, and could pull off a similar deal this year should he sign with them once again.
John Tavares & The Islanders’ Arena Deal
John Tavares will be one of the most polarizing figures in hockey this season, as fans all around the league wait to see if he will re-sign with the New York Islanders. Tavares has only ever expressed his desire to stay in New York, but has been clear he wants to see what happens with the team’s new arena bid before making a long-term decision. The Islanders moved to Barclays Center in 2015, a decision that has been widely regarded as a failure both in terms of location and interior aesthetics and sight lines. The team has been looking for a new home to move into that would provide some stability, the leading option being Belmont Park in Elmont, NY.
Arthur Staple of Newsday updated us on the Tavares negotiations today, shooting down a rumor that the star center had turned down an offer of $84MM. Tavares and the Islanders have “barely talked numbers” and are just waiting on the arena news before really beginning negotiations. The problem, is that Randi Marshall of Newsday, who has been covering the Belmont Park news from the start, jumped in by saying that proposals won’t even be submitted until September 28th, and a decision isn’t expected for at least four months after that (though that last bit of information is just an educated guess from Marshall).
That wait will be torturous for the Islanders, as it puts them very close to the trade deadline of March 1st. If there is no immediate answer on where the Islanders will play long-term holding onto Tavares through the end of the season is a huge risk. For a team that would need to start a rebuild without their superstar, letting him walk in free agency without recouping any value would be devastating. While there is no reason to get ahead of ourselves, the Belmont Park is one to keep a close eye on in a months time. If there are realistic competing bids for the site—which Marshall believes is a certainty—you’ll start to see more and more trade speculation surround the 26-year old.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Snapshots: Ratelle, Butcher, Lehner
After the Philadelphia Flyers announced this morning that Eric Lindros would see his number retired to the rafters this season, the New York Rangers are also making plans to honor one of their greatest players. Jean Ratelle‘s #19 will be retired in February, joining Ed Giacomin (#1), Brian Leetch (#2), Harry Howell (#3), Rod Gilbert (#7), Adam Graves and Andy Bathgate (#9), Mark Messier (#11), and Mike Richter (#35) in the rafters of Madison Square Garden.
Ratelle played 16 seasons for the Rangers during his career, scoring 817 points in 862 games for the franchise. He was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1985 and has been waiting a long time to see his number retired in New York. Jesper Fast, who wore the number last season, will have to change for 2017-18. The ceremony is scheduled for February 25th, before a game against the Detroit Red Wings that will be deemed “Jean Ratelle Night.”
- Will Butcher held a conference call with reporters today to explain why he chose the New Jersey Devils, and spoke mostly about his new head coach John Hynes and the effect he had even in just a short meeting. Butcher explained that his final four teams were indeed Vegas, Los Angeles, Buffalo and New Jersey, before eventually settling on the Devils. Butcher could step right into an NHL role in New Jersey, and he has the confidence if nothing else; he compared himself to Duncan Keith in terms of style of play.
- Bill Hoppe of Buffalo Hockey Beat has a great piece on the thought process of Robin Lehner in this summer’s contract negotiations with the Sabres, writing that Lehner wanted a long-term deal even though his agents disagreed. Even though his representatives explained that with a one-year deal he could set himself up for a big raise in what will be his final summer of restricted free agency, Lehner wanted to sign long-term in Buffalo. Hoppe writes that former Sabres GM Tim Murray may have been open to that, but the new regime wasn’t. Lehner has had extreme ups and downs since coming to Buffalo, but clearly has the talent to be one of the very best goaltenders in the league. In a year where almost everything went wrong for the Sabres, Lehner made a career-high 58 starts and maintained an excellent .920 save percentage. Next summer any long-term contract will be buying out almost exclusively UFA seasons, and will push much higher than the $4MM salary he’ll earn this season.
Latest On Cody Franson
Following up on a report from last week that there had been increased interest in free agent defenseman Cody Franson, Rick Dhaliwal of News 1130 reports that the former Buffalo Sabres player could “possibly sign this week.” While that doesn’t sound like much, it does put the spotlight back on an interesting offseason case.
Franson went through a long period of free agency in 2015 before finally signing with the Sabres, and again this summer hasn’t seemed to be able to drum up much interest. The 30-year old defenseman has vocal supporters and detractors among hockey fans, but does have a history of putting up points at the NHL level. In 527 career games, Franson has registered 205 points, a better per-game rate (0.39) than players like Morgan Rielly, Hampus Lindholm and Matt Niskanen. Though he’s obviously not as mobile as those three, his overall possession contribution is still quite high.
The question is how effective Franson can be in his own end or without receiving much powerplay time. With most rosters all but set for their special teams contributors, Franson faces a similar situation as Thomas Vanek: able but not needed. It will be interesting to see what kind of guaranteed money a team gives him, or if he has to settle for a professional tryout. Drew Stafford recently settled for just $800K, but will be expected to play a fairly substantial role on the New Jersey Devils. A training camp injury could help Franson’s case, but waiting that long puts him in jeopardy of not finding any work in the NHL this season.
Poll: Where Will Thomas Vanek Wind Up?
The results of yesterday’s poll, “Will Jaromir Jagr or Thomas Vanek Play in the NHL This Year?“, have been an overwhelming “yes”. So far, more than 71% of voters think both will play, while the next highest scoring option was that Vanek will play, with close to 14%. While the idea of Jagr’s NHL career being over seems impossible to many, it has been relatively quiet for the future Hall of Famer this off-season, with the only recent news being whispers of interest coming out of Calgary. Vanek, on the other hand, has reportedly seen an uptick in interest of late and has ties to many teams across the league. So, the question then becomes, assuming Vanek plays in the NHL this year, where will he end up?
The most recent rumors have connected Vanek with the Vancouver Canucks. A team that seems unsure of its direction, the Canucks have added several veteran pieces this off-season, like Sam Gagner and Michael Del Zotto, and seem determined to make a playoff push with the soon-to-be 37-year-old Sedins set to hit free agency next summer. Loui Eriksson did not work out on the top line with Henrik and Daniel last year, and trying Vanek out could make some sense. On the other hand, Vancouver has some young talent that could use a shot and, even with Vanek, the team stands little chance of reaching the postseason. The Canucks should be in full rebuild mode, but until management realizes that, adding a veteran like Vanek is a real possibility.
The other team who has long been rumored to be in contact with Vanek are the Detroit Red Wings. Another team that probably shouldn’t be adding veterans, the Red Wings also simply may not have the capacity to sign the veteran scorer, given their current cap overage and unfinished business with Andreas Athanasiou. Nevertheless, the rumors have hung around, as Vanek did seem to fit in nicely in Detroit last season. A return could be best for him, but it wouldn’t be the most logical decision for the team.
The Boston Bruins seem intent on giving their young players the opportunity to make the team this year. However, the team also kept in touch with free agent Drew Stafford this summer and seemed likely to offer him a contract or tryout deal once they had the David Pastrnak negotiations wrapped up. Pastrnak remains unsigned, but now Stafford is off the market, signing in New Jersey. The Bruins could now turn their attention to Vanek, who has historically been a thorn in the team’s side, to provide some depth and insurance on the wings if the prospects aren’t ready for regular roles just yet.
Then there’s the Arizona Coyotes, who are in desperate need of a right-shot winger, and could use some more veteran leadership up front as well. Yes, the ‘Yotes are still rebuilding, but they need to take the next step sooner or later. Vanek would bring a scoring boost and most of all some balance to the lineup and, with a league-high $19.3MM in cap space remaining, Arizona can certainly take a chance and pay Vanek what he’s asking. The fit makes sense, but does Vanek want to go to the desert? Will he have any other choice?
Finally, the San Jose Sharks lost Patrick Marleau this summer and his 46 points from last season and have only added Brandon Bollig and his zero points from last season to make up for it. That speaks for itself. Vanek would immediately be the Sharks’ biggest off-season acquisition and a great candidate to step in and replace Marleau in the top six.
So, what do you think? The response has been near total agreement that Vanek is staying in the NHL, but where exactly will he play?
Poll: Will Jaromir Jagr Or Thomas Vanek Play In The NHL This Year?
With Drew Stafford signing this morning, many fans are turning their sights to Jaromir Jagr and Thomas Vanek, arguably the top two names left on the open market. Both have had rumors recently about renewed interest, but it’s now late August and neither has found a team.
As we’ve looked at in the past, Jagr is one of several players from the Czech Republic who could give his country a huge boost for the upcoming Winter Olympics. The NHL isn’t going, and Jagr could play in Europe until after the international tournament. Thomas Vanek is not so lucky.
Vanek is Austrian, and though he captained his country’s team in the 2014 Games he won’t get the same chance in 2018 regardless of where he plays his hockey. Austria—playing without Vanek—got crushed by Latvia in Olympic qualifying 8-1 and then again by Germany 6-0 last summer to get knocked out of contention, despite ranking nearly ten spots higher than the host South Korean team in the world rankings. There’s no Olympic incentive for him, making his continued free agency something of a mystery.
So, we ask you reader what you think will happen this season. Coming off 46 and 48 point seasons respectively will Jagr and Vanek both suit up for an NHL game in 2017-18? Or depart for the professional leagues abroad?
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Cale Makar Expects To Play Just One Or Two Years At UMass
Over the last few weeks, teams around the league have been experiencing what it’s like to lose a draft pick to free agency after he completes college. After watching him develop into an exciting prospect, they’re unable to sign him and end up having to watch other teams pursue him on the open market. As one reader asked in our live chat last week, there could be some hesitation for teams picking players that are headed into the college ranks with the fear that they could lose them down the road.
It doesn’t sound like the Colorado Avalanche—one of the teams burned recently by Will Butcher‘s free agency—will have to worry about that with the fourth-overall pick from this summer. Cale Makar, the dynamic defenseman from the Alberta Junior Hockey League is set to attend UMass-Amherst this season but spoke to the NHL Network yesterday about his future.
I think in my mind it’s a process and I think in terms of my development it’s going to be very beneficial for me to go to college for one or two years, or however long it’s going to take for me to be ready to make the jump to the NHL.
There’s no doubt that Makar does need some seasoning against top players, as the AJHL isn’t quite on the level many other prospects played at. That said, Makar has shown well on the international stage at the recent World Junior Summer Showcase and possesses remarkable talent. There should be little worry that it will take him more than a year or two to adapt to the higher level and be ready to make the jump.
There is some level of protection against a player drafted as high as Makar waiting for free agency, but it’s not exactly worth the fourth-overall pick. The Avalanche would be given a compensatory pick in the second round, similar to the situation Arizona faced when they did not sign Conner Bleackley—who was originally a Colorado draft pick as well—in 2016. Colorado should also be familiar with the risk and reward of choosing a college-bound player; last year saw Tyson Jost refine his game for the University of North Dakota before making the jump to the NHL near the end of the season. Jost got ample experience in big game situations against older players in the NCAA tournament, and is expected to make an impact in the NHL this year.