Poll: Where Will Thomas Vanek Wind Up?
The results of yesterday’s poll, “Will Jaromir Jagr or Thomas Vanek Play in the NHL This Year?“, have been an overwhelming “yes”. So far, more than 71% of voters think both will play, while the next highest scoring option was that Vanek will play, with close to 14%. While the idea of Jagr’s NHL career being over seems impossible to many, it has been relatively quiet for the future Hall of Famer this off-season, with the only recent news being whispers of interest coming out of Calgary. Vanek, on the other hand, has reportedly seen an uptick in interest of late and has ties to many teams across the league. So, the question then becomes, assuming Vanek plays in the NHL this year, where will he end up?
The most recent rumors have connected Vanek with the Vancouver Canucks. A team that seems unsure of its direction, the Canucks have added several veteran pieces this off-season, like Sam Gagner and Michael Del Zotto, and seem determined to make a playoff push with the soon-to-be 37-year-old Sedins set to hit free agency next summer. Loui Eriksson did not work out on the top line with Henrik and Daniel last year, and trying Vanek out could make some sense. On the other hand, Vancouver has some young talent that could use a shot and, even with Vanek, the team stands little chance of reaching the postseason. The Canucks should be in full rebuild mode, but until management realizes that, adding a veteran like Vanek is a real possibility.
The other team who has long been rumored to be in contact with Vanek are the Detroit Red Wings. Another team that probably shouldn’t be adding veterans, the Red Wings also simply may not have the capacity to sign the veteran scorer, given their current cap overage and unfinished business with Andreas Athanasiou. Nevertheless, the rumors have hung around, as Vanek did seem to fit in nicely in Detroit last season. A return could be best for him, but it wouldn’t be the most logical decision for the team.
The Boston Bruins seem intent on giving their young players the opportunity to make the team this year. However, the team also kept in touch with free agent Drew Stafford this summer and seemed likely to offer him a contract or tryout deal once they had the David Pastrnak negotiations wrapped up. Pastrnak remains unsigned, but now Stafford is off the market, signing in New Jersey. The Bruins could now turn their attention to Vanek, who has historically been a thorn in the team’s side, to provide some depth and insurance on the wings if the prospects aren’t ready for regular roles just yet.
Then there’s the Arizona Coyotes, who are in desperate need of a right-shot winger, and could use some more veteran leadership up front as well. Yes, the ‘Yotes are still rebuilding, but they need to take the next step sooner or later. Vanek would bring a scoring boost and most of all some balance to the lineup and, with a league-high $19.3MM in cap space remaining, Arizona can certainly take a chance and pay Vanek what he’s asking. The fit makes sense, but does Vanek want to go to the desert? Will he have any other choice?
Finally, the San Jose Sharks lost Patrick Marleau this summer and his 46 points from last season and have only added Brandon Bollig and his zero points from last season to make up for it. That speaks for itself. Vanek would immediately be the Sharks’ biggest off-season acquisition and a great candidate to step in and replace Marleau in the top six.
So, what do you think? The response has been near total agreement that Vanek is staying in the NHL, but where exactly will he play?
Where Will Thomas Vanek Wind Up?
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Detroit Red Wings 24% (116)
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San Jose Sharks 21% (103)
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Other 21% (101)
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Vancouver Canucks 14% (71)
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Boston Bruins 11% (53)
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Arizona Coyotes 10% (47)
Total votes: 491
Poll: Will Jaromir Jagr Or Thomas Vanek Play In The NHL This Year?
With Drew Stafford signing this morning, many fans are turning their sights to Jaromir Jagr and Thomas Vanek, arguably the top two names left on the open market. Both have had rumors recently about renewed interest, but it’s now late August and neither has found a team.
As we’ve looked at in the past, Jagr is one of several players from the Czech Republic who could give his country a huge boost for the upcoming Winter Olympics. The NHL isn’t going, and Jagr could play in Europe until after the international tournament. Thomas Vanek is not so lucky.
Vanek is Austrian, and though he captained his country’s team in the 2014 Games he won’t get the same chance in 2018 regardless of where he plays his hockey. Austria—playing without Vanek—got crushed by Latvia in Olympic qualifying 8-1 and then again by Germany 6-0 last summer to get knocked out of contention, despite ranking nearly ten spots higher than the host South Korean team in the world rankings. There’s no Olympic incentive for him, making his continued free agency something of a mystery.
So, we ask you reader what you think will happen this season. Coming off 46 and 48 point seasons respectively will Jagr and Vanek both suit up for an NHL game in 2017-18? Or depart for the professional leagues abroad?
Will Jaromir Jagr And Thomas Vanek Play In The NHL This Season?
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Both will play 70% (267)
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Vanek will play 14% (53)
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Jagr will play 12% (47)
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Neither will play 4% (17)
Total votes: 384
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
Cale Makar Expects To Play Just One Or Two Years At UMass
Over the last few weeks, teams around the league have been experiencing what it’s like to lose a draft pick to free agency after he completes college. After watching him develop into an exciting prospect, they’re unable to sign him and end up having to watch other teams pursue him on the open market. As one reader asked in our live chat last week, there could be some hesitation for teams picking players that are headed into the college ranks with the fear that they could lose them down the road.
It doesn’t sound like the Colorado Avalanche—one of the teams burned recently by Will Butcher‘s free agency—will have to worry about that with the fourth-overall pick from this summer. Cale Makar, the dynamic defenseman from the Alberta Junior Hockey League is set to attend UMass-Amherst this season but spoke to the NHL Network yesterday about his future.
I think in my mind it’s a process and I think in terms of my development it’s going to be very beneficial for me to go to college for one or two years, or however long it’s going to take for me to be ready to make the jump to the NHL.
There’s no doubt that Makar does need some seasoning against top players, as the AJHL isn’t quite on the level many other prospects played at. That said, Makar has shown well on the international stage at the recent World Junior Summer Showcase and possesses remarkable talent. There should be little worry that it will take him more than a year or two to adapt to the higher level and be ready to make the jump.
There is some level of protection against a player drafted as high as Makar waiting for free agency, but it’s not exactly worth the fourth-overall pick. The Avalanche would be given a compensatory pick in the second round, similar to the situation Arizona faced when they did not sign Conner Bleackley—who was originally a Colorado draft pick as well—in 2016. Colorado should also be familiar with the risk and reward of choosing a college-bound player; last year saw Tyson Jost refine his game for the University of North Dakota before making the jump to the NHL near the end of the season. Jost got ample experience in big game situations against older players in the NCAA tournament, and is expected to make an impact in the NHL this year.
Will Butcher Expected To Take Another Week To Sign
Yesterday Kevin Allen of USA Today reported that it might take up to a week for Hobey Baker winner Will Butcher to make a decision, something that his agent Steve Bartlett confirmed today. Bartlett took to the airwaves to discuss Butcher’s free agency with WGR 550, and told The Instigators that it would be another week before any decision is made. Butcher is taking his time to determine where his future lies, and is willing to sign with a team that doesn’t have an immediate NHL opportunity.
Bartlett also said that Butcher would have to sign a three-year entry-level contract, though that seems like a simple mistake. Because of Butcher’s age (22), he’ll be required to sign a two-year ELC and will become a restricted free agent in the summer of 2019. That shortened ELC is important, as Butcher will want to have NHL experience by the time he’s negotiating his next contract.
The undersized defenseman is an offensive threat, but there are still doubts about his ability to contribute consistently at the NHL level. His greatest attribute, quarterbacking a powerplay, is a much different animal at the professional level when everything speeds up. Wherever he signs it will be interesting to follow his career to see if he can make the same impact as some of the other recent NCAA free agents.
Tavares To Toronto Highly Unlikely
Although it seems to occur every time a high-profile free-agent could hit the market, Toronto media have once again conjured a dream of landing a superstar. John Tavares is experiencing major difficulty in coming to terms with the New York Islanders, primarily because of the uncertainty of their arena situation. The team needs to prove that they are both competitive and can secure a home for the foreseeable future. Enter Toronto, who believes that the contract negotiation difficulty automatically propels them into a top-3 competitor for Tavares’ services. If this story may sound familiar, that’s because it occurred just last off-season when Steven Stamkos was stalling his new deal with Tampa Bay.
Toronto inarguably is in a far superior negotiating position than they were in 2016. They’ve made the playoffs and took the Washington Capitals to their limits, and flaunt a young core who established itself as dominant quite before most believed possible. Given another season of success, the Leafs could be serious contenders for any UFA on the market. That said, a Tavares signing would be absurdly difficult and ultimately impractical for a multitude of reasons. The Leafs’ fanbase is already (rightfully) fretting over the difficulty of keeping Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander together while staying under the cap ceiling. Each player will command hefty money on long-term deals, and the best case scenario (cap-wise) is that one of the three might have a “down” statistical year.
Even ignoring those future contracts, Toronto already made matters more complicated by signing Patrick Marleau to a 3-year contract worth $6.25 MM AAV. Assuming that the team keeps one or two of James van Riemsdyk, Leo Komarov, and Tyler Bozak (all UFAs in 2018), they will have precious room to devote to Tavares beyond 2018-19. After that point, Matthews and Marner will both be on new deals with heavy cap hits. Craig Button of TSN suggests that the Leafs could offer Tavares a one-year deal, but there is little to no security in such an arrangement. If the Islanders are unable to move Tavares or simply fall short of securing a new contract, Tavares will be likely seek a long-term arrangement. His primary stated concern at present is security, and a one-year contract elsewhere certainly doesn’t achieve said goal.
By signing Marleau, the writing for Toronto fans should have been clear and visible. Still, the Tavares hope persists. It’s not impossible that Tavares could sign a long-term contract in Toronto, but it would take a major roster overhaul to achieve. One of Marner or Nylander would necessarily need to depart, and the amount of money spent on the offense would only increase further. It seems likely that GM Lou Lamoriello will simply build upon the core that has been so successful without gutting the progress made. It would be unrealistic to expect Lamoriello to not at least inquire about Tavares if he indeed hits unrestricted free agency, but it would require a major organizational commitment without any real certainty in the matter. Tavares will receive a long-term contract, whether it is from New York or another franchise, but as of now the Leafs are not in a position to extend such an offer.
Upcoming UFA Goaltenders With Something To Prove
Next year’s goaltending UFA crop may lack star power, but it does contain many interesting potential rehabilitation projects. This season provides those pending UFA goaltenders with an opportunity to turn things around and show teams that they are worth more than their current reputation belies. Whether it’s a former starter regulated to backup duties, or an aging veteran with just enough left in the tank, the following goaltenders can significantly improve their stock going into unrestricted free agency.
Jonathan Bernier – Colorado Avalanche – $2.75MM
The Colorado Avalanche signed the former Toronto Maple Leafs starter to a one-year deal worth $2.75MM this season to back up presumed starter Semyon Varlamov. Varlamov struggled last season, dealing with injuries and his worst stat line in his career. The Avalanche hope that Bernier can provide steady goaltending if Varlamov continues to slide or cannot shoulder a full starter’s load. If Bernier steps up and performs admirably, he could be in line for a starters position during the offseason. Last season saw Bernier player with the Anaheim Ducks and put up his best numbers in years. Part of that is the superior team in front of him, but it shows that given the proper tools, Bernier can be a serviceable starter in the league.
Eddie Lack – Calgary Flames – $2.75MM ($1.375 retained)
The Carolina Hurricanes traded Lack to the Calgary Flames this summer and agreed to retain 50% of his salary. Lack now has the opportunity to back up new Flames signee Mike Smith. Smith turns 36 this season, and will experience the injury woes that go along with veteran goaltenders. Lack will have an opportunity to step up and show teams that he still has the skills to become a starting goaltender. He is only two seasons removed from posting a .921 SV% and a 2.45GAA in 41 games for the Vancouver Canucks.
Ondrej Pavelec – New York Rangers – $1.3MM
Continuing with the reclamation projects backing up older veterans, Pavelec has a chance to show NHL GMs what he can do behind a very good team. In Pavelec’s ten year career he has seen the playoffs just once—with the Winnipeg Jets in 2014-15—and can benefit from the Rangers’ stacked defensive corps. Luckily, his bar is set low after his worst statistical season since 2008-09. Last season Pavelec played in just eight games, earning a .888 SV% and a 3.55 GAA. He was not much better the season before, with a .904 SV% and a 2.78 GAA. Mired by a reputation for being shaky and inconsistent, this may be Pavelec’s last opportunity to convince GMs to take a flier on the former 2nd round pick.
Cam Ward – Carolina Hurricanes – $3.3MM
Ward is over a decade removed from his Stanley Cup-winning playoff performance, but since then he has been the model of consistency. Unfortunately, he has been consistently average. And once again, Ward will have some true competition coming into camp. The Carolina Hurricanes signed former Chicago Blackhawks backup Scott Darling to a $4.15MM a year contract, signalling who the team prefers to earn the starting role going forward. Ward has already experienced this before with Eddie Lack, and eventually Lack was moved out to Calgary. This time, however, a decent season may not end with a new contract from the Hurricanes, but it will garner interest from other NHL teams.
Antti Raanta – Arizona Coyotes – $1MM
Raanta is the only goaltender on this list who is not a reclamation project. The Finnish netminder has backed up elite goaltenders Corey Crawford and Henrik Lundqvist, and now has the opportunity to take the starting reins in Arizona. The New York Rangers shipped Raanta alongside Derek Stepan to the Arizona Coyotes for Anthony DeAngelo and the 7th overall pick earlier this summer. Raanta is fresh off of a 30 games season where he earned a .922 GAA and a 2.26 SV%, significantly better than Lundqvist’s .910 SV% and 2.74 GAA. If Raanta can maintain his statline for a full season in Arizona, he will be in line for a large pay increase.
Free Agent Profile: Lauri Korpikoski
Unrestricted free agent winger Lauri Korpikoski hasn’t been able to build upon the offensive potential he displayed earlier in his career with the Coyotes but he has still successfully carved out a bottom six niche role over the past few years. Despite being a safe bet for around 20 points in a lower spot in the lineup, he has yet to land somewhere for 2017-18.
Last year, he hit the free agent market a year earlier than expected as the Oilers opted to buy him out of the final year of his contract instead of carrying a $2.5MM cap hit. He wound up joining Dallas on a one-year, $1MM deal and fared relatively well for an injury-laden Stars team, picking up 20 points (8-12-20) in 60 games before being flipped to Columbus at the trade deadline. Things didn’t go as well for Korpikoski with his new team as he was a frequent healthy scratch and got into just nine regular season games (and zero in the postseason) which certainly doesn’t help his cause.
While the hit stat isn’t entirely consistent from team-to-team, it’s at least worth noting that his physical play dropped considerably last season. While his career average in hits per game is a little over 1.5, he checked in at barely over half of one per night in 2016-17. It’s easier to make a case for earning a contract as a bottom six player if a player can show there’s a physical element to their game but that’s something Korpikoski can’t say this time around.
Where the 31-year-old can hang his hat is on his ability to play the penalty kill and his speed. Those are elements that can still get a player a regular spot in the lineup and between that and a consistent level of production in that role, he should be able to land a deal between now and the start of the season.
Potential Suitors
Two types of teams fit the bill. The first is a team lacking in depth that can use Korpikoski for a few months until a younger player is ready to come up from the minors that would then flip him at the deadline. The usual suspects come to mind, including Florida, New Jersey, and even his old organization in Arizona where he had the most success of his career.
The other type is more of a veteran team that could use him as a 12th/13th forward to start or who is facing a cap crunch and need cheaper depth. Washington is certainly a team that needs some veteran forwards and will be looking for bargains to fill out their fourth line and Korpikoski would fit in nicely. Minnesota, which is where we projected him to sign, is a team that typically covets veteran depth and he’d hedge against some of their youngsters not being ready for full-time duty right away.
Projected Contract
Back in June, Korpikoski landed the 48th slot in our Top 50 Free Agents with a one-year, $800K contract. With the minimum salary rising to $650K this season, the pre-camp PTO agreements will likely come in around $800K so that’s still a reasonable target as he can’t realistically land much more than that. As the market has hit its annual lull, he may have to wait a while yet to find his next team.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Notes: Howden, Somerby, Moroz, Crisp
After spending most of last season in the minors, forward Quinton Howden is crossing the pond. The 25-year-old has signed with Dinamo Minsk, the KHL team announced (link in Russian).
The former first round pick (25th overall to Florida in 2010) spent 2016-17 with Winnipeg’s organization after the Panthers didn’t tender him a qualifying offer last summer. He suited up in 58 games with their AHL affiliate in Manitoba, collecting 24 points (13-11-24). Howden also got into five games with the Jets, being held off the scoresheet while averaging a career low 8:39 per night. He has a total of 97 NHL games under his belt in his career and if he rediscovers his scoring touch overseas, he might be one to watch for down the road to see if he takes another chance in North America.
More notes from the open market:
- The Islanders remain interested in signing defenseman Doyle Somerby who became an unrestricted free agent yesterday, agent Brent Peterson told Newsday’s Arthur Staple. Pederson noted that the interest is mutual although he is still soliciting interest from other teams as well. It was reported earlier this month that as many as five other teams were likely to show interest in the 23-year-old stay-at-home blueliner.
- Unrestricted free agent winger Mitchell Moroz has signed a one-year contract with Idaho of the ECHL, the minor league team announced. He became unrestricted after the Coyotes declined to tender him a qualifying offer in June. Moroz was a second round pick of the Oilers (32nd overall) but didn’t progress past the AHL level in any of his three professional seasons. Last year, the 23-year-old split the campaign between Bakersfield and Tuscon of the AHL, recording four goals, five assists, and 36 penalty minutes.
- Canadiens UFA winger Connor Crisp is also ECHL-bound after the Toledo Walleye announced that they signed him to a one-year deal. Crisp was a 2013 third round pick (71st overall) after being unpicked in his first trip through the draft. He dealt with concussion and other injury troubles on his entry-level pact, playing just over 100 regular season games in total. Last year, he spent most of the season with ECHL Brampton, tallying 14 goals and 19 assists along with 60 PIMS in 43 games and was also non-tendered in June.
Poll: Which UFA Contract Will Look The Worst Next Year?
Famously stated by former NHL GM Brian Burke, July 1st is the day which teams make the most mistakes. They see players on the unrestricted free agent market and pay too much and for too long based entirely on what they’ve already accomplished in their careers. Rarely is there a contract to a star player that accurately reflects his future value, and never does an offseason pass without someone drastically overpaying.
Last year there were immediate doubts about the long-term deals handed out to players like David Backes, Milan Lucic and Loui Eriksson, and though each had varying levels of success in their first year could all be called disappointments. Those contracts could get even uglier as they go on, and look like a ridiculous deal in a few seasons.
This year had less star power on the free agent market, and a headliner in Kevin Shattenkirk that actually took less money and term than almost anyone expected. He headed to the Rangers for just four seasons despite being arguably the most sought-after player on the market, and while he easily could start his decline it’s hard to call his contract much of an albatross. In fact, only two UFAs even received a contract of five years in what was a relatively tame free agent period. Karl Alzner and Alexander Radulov led the way, though much longer extensions were given out to players like Carey Price and Brent Burns.
Looking at just the UFA deals from this summer (which excludes things like T.J. Oshie‘s contract that was signed on June 23rd), which do you think will look the worst in a year? We’ve included some of the top candidates, but don’t hesitate to list another contract in the comments below and explain why you think it will be the worst.
Which UFA contract will look the worst in a year?
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Patrick Marleau (TOR): 3 years, $18.75MM 29% (367)
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Alexander Radulov (DAL): 5 years, $31.25MM 20% (255)
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Karl Alzner (MTL): 5 years, $23.125MM 16% (194)
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Kevin Shattenkirk (NYR): 4 years, $26.6MM 8% (105)
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Nick Bonino (NSH): 4 years, $16.4MM 7% (86)
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Martin Hanzal (DAL): 3 years $14.25MM 6% (70)
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Dmitry Kulikov (WPG): 3 years, $13MM 5% (68)
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Trevor Daley (DET): 3 years, $9.5MM 5% (64)
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Ron Hainsey (TOR): 2 years, $6MM 2% (26)
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Other (leave in comments) 1% (10)
Total votes: 1,245
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
Morning Notes: Tavares, World Cup, Krushelnyski
The New York Islanders continue to be the center of attention when it comes to 2018 free agency. As we creep closer to training camp and the start of the regular season, many are questioning why superstar center John Tavares hasn’t signed an extension yet. Tavares is set to become an unrestricted free agent next summer but doesn’t seem worried about the lack of a deal. He told Arthur Staple of Newsday that “there’s really no rush” and that he’d take as much time as he needs.
He did admit that he’s keeping an eye on the Islanders’ search for a new home, but that those things are out of his hands. It’s interesting that Tavares so publicly stated his attachment to the arena search, and will drum up a new round of speculation over whether he’ll leave if a permanent home isn’t found within the next 10 months. There’s obviously much more going into his decision, but the Islanders need to soon find some stability on and off the ice.
- Rick Westhead of TSN reports on the financial take from last fall’s World Cup of Hockey, announcing that the NHL and NHLPA split a $44MM profit. Though that may sound like a big number, players who participated earned just $86K while others got $10K. Both of those numbers are pre-tax, meaning many of the players earned even less. $86K may seem like a lot to some, but for the top players who gave up much of their training camp and put themselves at risk of injury it doesn’t seem like enough. While both sides want this event to continue, it’ll likely take a bigger paycheck to have it run long-term.
- Alex Krushelnyski is back in the AHL, after signing with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms today. The 26-year old played 43 games for the Binghamton Senators last year, recording just seven points. Krushelnyski has been an outstanding scoring threat in the ECHL but has had trouble finding his footing in the upper minor league. He’ll join the Philadelphia Flyers’ affiliate as they look to repeat their 48-23-5 season from a year ago.