Hindsight Bias: The Best And Worst Of Trade Deadline Day
With the conference championships underway, we’re left with just four teams remaining in the hunt for the Stanley Cup. For the rest, they can take a look at the major trades made up to and on March 1st this year and gauge whether they were a mistake or a success. It’s somewhat of a mixed bag this year, with no deadline acquisition fueling their team to postseason dominance and no scapegoat whose underwhelming performance is to blame for an epic collapse. With that said, over two months later, it is safe to say that there were some clear winner and loser trades at the 2017 NHL Trade Deadline.
Winner: Anaheim Ducks – Patrick Eaves
Eaves has quietly been one of the most consistent contributors in the NHL this season and that did not change when he moved from the Dallas Stars to the Ducks ahead of the deadline. A versatile, two-way winger, Eaves has fit in well in Anaheim as is the lone major deadline addition who is still playing in the conference championships. After scoring 37 points in 59 games with the Stars, about .63 points per game, he registered 14 more in the final 20 regular season games for the Ducks, boosting his scoring to .7 points per game down the stretch in his new home. He even has two goals and two assists in seven playoff games, despite battling injuries. Anaheim may be down 1-0 in their pursuit of the Campbell Bowl and a Stanley Cup berth and their postseason success has bumped the price for Eaves up from a 2017 second-round pick to a first-rounder, but with a one in four chance at a title and a chance to re-sign Eaves, the Ducks cannot be more pleased with how this deal has played out thus far.
Loser: Minnesota Wild – Martin Hanzal
A team that is not so happy with their first-round investment is Minnesota. The Wild had been one of the best teams in the league all season long when they surprised many by acquiring one of the top trade deadline targets in Hanzal. The power forward performed admirably post-trade, putting up half as many points as his season total in Arizona in less than half as many games, 26 in 51 versus 13 in 25. He even added a playoff goal. However, his time in the playoffs, by no fault of his own, was much shorter than expected. The Wild were upset by the St. Louis Blues in five games and just like that they’re Stanley Cup hopes were gone. Falling so short despite high expectations makes the cost of adding a piece that didn’t matter much more difficult to swallow. Minnesota owes the Arizona Coyotes a top pick this season and a second-rounder next season plus another conditional pick and prospect, with little to show for the price.
Winner: New York Rangers – Brendan Smith
While the Rangers were underwhelming in their semi-final series against the Ottawa Senators, one many expected them to win, their exit is still not all that surprising given their status as a wildcard seed. Helping them to upset the Montreal Canadiens in Round One and take the Senators to six games was deadline acquisition Smith. While some initially mocked the deal – a 2018 second-round pick and 2017 third-round pick for a defenseman with just five points – Smith proved to be an excellent fit in New York. He scored four points in 18 games with the Rangers and also played better in his own end, earning him more play time. A disappointing start to the season in Detroit for the career-Red Wing quickly turned into a career revival with impressive play for his new squad. The postseason brought yet another four points and continued high-level play for Smith. Unfortunately, perhaps his worst game as a Ranger came in the elimination loss to the Senators when he was exposed on defense multiple times. Yet, in the big picture he was a success in New York. There is no word yet on whether there is mutual interest between both sides in an extension, especially since the Rangers carry many expensive blue line contract, but regardless this deal has to be considered a win for the Blueshirts.
Loser: Los Angeles Kings – Ben Bishop
Bishop may be happily settling in to his new home in Dallas after signing a nice six-year deal, but his time in Los Angeles did little to help him secure that contact. The Kings and the keeper were strange bedfellows to begin with, as now ex-GM Dean Lombardi traded red-hot backup goalie Peter Budaj, 2015 second-round defenseman Erik Cernak, and a 2017 seventh-round pick to the Tampa Bay Lightning for Bishop, just as starter Jonathan Quick was returning to health. The Kings needed scoring, not better goaltending, if they wanted to make the playoffs, but ended up with neither from the Bishop trade as he picked up only two wins in seven appearances with L.A. and posted just a .900 save percentage. The Kings finished 10th in the Western Conference and eight points out of a playoff spot, not even all that close to a berth, and now need to find a new backup goalie for 2017-18. The Bishop trade makes as little sense now as it did then and undoubtedly figured in to Lombardi’s firing.
Winner: Boston Bruins – Drew Stafford
The Bruins may have lost in the first round of the playoffs, but they likely wouldn’t have if four of their six starting defenseman didn’t miss all or most of the series. Even with those major injuries, the Ottawa Senators still had a difficult time eliminating the Bruins and Stafford was a thorn in their side with two goals and consistent two-way contribution. Add in four goals, matching his total earlier in the season with the Winnipeg Jets, and four assists in 18 regular season games as well as an outstanding +8 rating, and Stafford was an excellent addition for Boston. Acquired for just a sixth-round pick, Stafford was easily the steal of the trade deadline and ongoing talks of an extension would only add more value to a shrewd deal by GM Don Sweeney.
Loser: Florida Panthers – Thomas Vanek
Vanek was having a great season for the Detroit Red Wings when the Trade Deadline rolled around. He had 38 points in 48 games and was sniping with accuracy unseen over the past five years. When the Florida Panthers struck a deal to acquire that level of talent for just a 2017 third-round pick and struggling prospect Dylan McIlrath, there was a consensus that they had won the trade considering the affordable cost. Yet, the counter to that argument was that, even if he maintained the same rate of production, Vanek alone was likely not enough for the Panthers to make the playoffs. In the end, that proved to be true. Vanek’s scoring dropped off to just two goals and ten points in 20 games and his shooting percentage fell almost ten points, but even if it hadn’t, the Panthers wouldn’t have qualified for the postseason. They finished 13th in the Eastern Conference, 14 points shy of a playoff spot. At the end of the day, acquiring the impending free agent and missing the playoffs by that much was simply a waste of a third-round pick for a team that is still building.
Loser: New York Islanders – No One
The idea that you can’t lose at the Trade Deadline if you don’t make a deal is incorrect. Case in point: the 2016-17 Islanders. New York ended up missing the postseason by just one point and their playoff hopes were alive up to the final day of the season. Had the Isles made a trade, even a small one, that could have won them one more game down the stretch, they might have been a playoff team after all. Given their need to convince star John Tavares to stick around, the Islanders should have been more willing to do something – anything – to transform into a playoff team.
Snapshots: Sharks, Florida’s Coaching Search, Sharipzianov
With a pair of long-term veterans in Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton slated to become unrestricted free agents in July and the team being ousted in the first round, CSN Bay Area’s Kevin Kurz suggests that the time is right for GM Doug Wilson to make a big splash this offseason.
For starters, Marleau and Thornton represent a little over $13.4MM in money potentially coming off the salary cap which opens up the type of payroll flexibility the team hasn’t had in quite some time. Kurz argues that while one or both could conceivably be brought back, the team would still be competitive but also wouldn’t be favored as a threat to be a Stanley Cup contender either.
The core of the Sharks has been together for quite some time but with those two potentially set to walk as well as new deals needed for goalie Martin Jones and defenseman Marc-Edouard Vlasic following 2017-18, the time may be right to shake things up in San Jose.
Elsewhere around the league:
- While Predators assistant coach Phil Housley is believed to be a candidate for Florida’s coaching vacancy, Harvey Fialkov of the Sun-Sentinel adds another name to the mix in Capitals associate coach Todd Reirden. The 45 year old Reirden has been with Washington for the past three years and before that, spent parts of seven seasons in Pittsburgh’s organization, three seasons at the minor league level and four with the big club. Former Canadiens head coach Michel Therrien as well as Denver University bench boss Jim Montgomery are also in the mix to replace Tom Rowe behind the bench.
- Kings defensive prospect Damir Sharipzianov has been loaned to Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk of the KHL for next season, the Russian team announced (link in Russian). The 21 year old recently completed the first season of his three year, entry-level contract but spent the full season in the minors, playing 38 games with Ontario of the AHL and ten more with ECHL Manchester. Although he won’t be with the Kings or a minor league affiliate, he will continue to count against their 50 contract limit for 2017-18.
Snapshots: Gavrikov, Montgomery, Brodeur
In the continuing saga of Vladislav Gavrikov, Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch reports that rumors of his signing in the KHL already are completely false. Dan Milstein of Gold Star who represents Gavrikov reiterated that no decision will be made on his future until after the World Championships are over.
Gavrikov is still just 21, and despite being drafted in the sixth round has developed into a legitimate NHL prospect. The young defender apparently has two KHL teams chasing him after his solid season for Yaroslavl. After already convincing Gabriel Carlsson to come over earlier this spring, the Blue Jackets could make another important addition to their defense pipeline with Gavrikov. While Team Russia spreads their ice time out fairly evenly, Gavrikov is used in tough defensive matchups and has been effective in the tournament. His future lies as a shutdown third-pairing player, though he still has time to develop even further.
- The Florida Panthers have met with Jim Montgomery from the University of Denver twice now, according to George Richards of the Miami Herald, and have booked a second interview with Michel Therrien as well. The club is still searching for their next head coach, and many believe that Nashville Predators assistant Phil Housley will be given a chance to interview before they make a decision. Housley of course is still working in the playoffs as Nashville is off to the Western Conference Finals for the first time. Montgomery and Therrien represent two very different directions for the club, showing that they’re looking in every direction for their next bench boss. Therrien has 814 games of head coaching experience in the NHL, while Montgomery—and in the same vein Housley—has none.
- Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Martin Brodeur will not continue as goalie coach for the Blues next season, instead returning to his post as assistant general manager. The team will hire a new coach who will hopefully be able to continue the work Brodeur did with Jake Allen in the second half. When the Blues fired Jim Corsi—the man the divisive Corsi stat was named after—along with Ken Hitchcock on February 1st, Allen held a .895 save percentage and was the focus of much hand-wringing among those watching the team. Following Brodeur and Ty Conklin taking over coaching duties, Allen posted a .928 save percentage (including playoffs) and was key in the Blues turnaround. Conklin, previously the goaltender development coach, will surely be in the running to take over the job full-time.
Jim Montgomery To Interview A Second Time With Florida Panthers
According to Mike Chambers of the Denver Post, Jim Montgomery will interview a second time with the Florida Panthers for their head coaching vacancy. Montgomery has four years left on his contract at the University of Denver, and according to Chambers the school is doing everything it can to attempt to retain him.
After firing Tom Rowe at the end of the season, GM Dale Tallon and the Panthers’ front office have been looking at several different names to possibly fill the position. San Jose Sharks assistant Bob Boughner has been linked, as has veteran coach Michel Therrien. Pierre LeBrun of TSN recently reported that the team is also waiting for some of the assistant coaches still working in the playoffs to finish their seasons. Those could include people like Nashville assistant Phil Housley, Ottawa assistant Marc Crawford or Pittsburgh assistant Rick Tocchet.
Instead though, Montgomery will apparently come in for a second visit after initially meeting with the team on April 26th. Fresh off an NCAA National Championship with DU, Montgomery is among the hottest coaching prospects in the country at the moment. Interestingly, Chambers notes that several players including Henrik Borgstrom, Florida’s first-round pick from last summer, would consider turning pro if Montgomery were to leave. Will Butcher, the reigning Hobey Baker award winner was originally recruited by Montgomery and has spent his entire career under the coach. Butcher will become a free agent in August of this year should he not reach an agreement with the Colorado Avalanche.
For several reasons, Montgomery might be an excellent coach for the Panthers going forward but he doesn’t come without his warts. Despite playing 122 games in the NHL, he’s never worked as a coach in the league at any level, as he headed into the college ranks as soon as his playing career had ended. While he coached the USHL’s Dubuque Fighting Saints for three years—winning two championships thanks in part to a young Johnny Gaudreau—he’s never coached in a professional league.
Latest On Florida Panthers’ Coaching Search
While the rest of the hockey world was talking yesterday about the latest concussion suffered by Sidney Crosby, Pierre LeBrun of TSN tweeted out an interesting note about the Florida Panthers’ coaching search. The venerable hockey insider reports that the Panthers have asked for and received permission from the San Jose Sharks to interview Bob Boughner for their vacancy. LeBrun adds that they also may be after assistant coaches still working in the Stanley Cup Playoffs with teams that have yet to be eliminated.
Boughner, one may remember, was a candidate for the Colorado Avalanche job last summer after Patrick Roy left the team in August, a job that eventually went to Jared Bednar who had been coaching in the AHL. Boughner just completed just his second year with the Sharks, after a lengthy tenure with the Windsor Spitfires of the OHL.
Joining Windsor in 2006, he quickly turned around a franchise that had been to just one Memorial Cup in its history and never won the CHL tournament. Within four seasons, Boughner had led the team to back-to-back championships while guiding young players like Taylor Hall and Ryan Ellis to greatness. It earned him a spot on the Columbus Blue Jackets bench as an assistant coach for one season before returning to the Spitfires in 2011.
While Boughner doesn’t have any experience as a head coach at the professional level, he is considered an up-and-coming option that will eventually get an opportunity somewhere, and comes with a much different marketing spin than other “old guard” options like Michel Therrien or Lindy Ruff. Other assistants that may be of interest fall into both of these categories, like the experienced Marc Crawford from Ottawa or inexperienced assistant Phil Housley from Nashville.
Michel Therrien In Mix For Florida Panthers Coaching Job
While many have expected the Florida Panthers to go with a new face for their next coaching job, Eric Engels of Sportsnet now reports that a familiar name has surfaced. Michel Therrien is among the candidates for the head coaching vacancy, though there is no word on how far into the process the team is. Engels clarifies that Therrien shouldn’t be considered the leading candidate for the job, just that he’s on GM Dale Tallon’s “list”.
Therrien of course was dismissed by the Montreal Canadiens earlier this year, and would thus would require permission to speak to. It would be hard to imagine the Canadiens not granting it though, even for a division rival. Therrien was in the midst of a four-year contract extension that would have kept him in Montreal through 2018-19, but was replaced by Claude Julien mid-season. Julien had just been fired by the Boston Bruins, who allowed the Habs to hire him almost immediately.
Despite Therrien’s excellent 406-303-105 coaching record with Montreal and Pittsburgh, he’s only taken a team to the Stanley Cup Finals once and never won hockey’s biggest prize. While he has been respected in the game for many years, he also has been said to have somewhat of a shelf-life not unlike many other fiery bench bosses around the league. With a team like Florida, it would be an interesting fit for a team that has a mix of youth and veterans vying for playing time.
Morning Notes: MacArthur, Jagr, Darling
Ottawa’s Clarke MacArthur is day-to-day following an injury sustained in the second period of Game 2 versus the New York Rangers. MacArthur took a rather routine, if tough, hit from New York captain Ryan McDonagh. MacArthur appears to have gotten his hands up to absorb some of the high body check, but with MacArthur’s recent history, another concussion is always the fear. MacArthur missed the bulk of this and last season (8 games combined) to lingering concussion symptoms, and would likely have been a finalist for the Masterton had he not been on the same squad as goalie Craig Anderson. The 32 year-old left winger had dealt with quality-of-life issues and was forced to even contemplate retirement. Although coach Guy Boucher did not express major concern, Senators fans will certainly be holding their breath in hopes that nothing serious was sustained. As Boucher said, “it’s something he had last game and he aggravated today” – whatever it was, he had already played through once. It’s difficult to see a coach taking chances with concussion symptoms in this day and age, with this player – even in the playoffs. Whether he returns for Game 3 or at all this series is up in the air.
- As expected, the Carolina Hurricanes organization will attempt to sign Scott Darling to a contract as soon as they are able. The Hurricanes took a bit of a gamble in acquiring an impending UFA for a 3rd-round draft pick. Certainly they have the inside track with regard to signing the goaltender, but there is every possibility he could choose to test the market. His phenomenal season as the backup in Chicago would certainly attract a few suitors, and by heading to July 1st, he only improves his leverage. Carolina was already in a pickle as to which goaltender they would protect. If Darling signs before June 18th, the team would expose both Cam Ward and Eddie Lack in the expansion draft, which could be quite financially beneficial. If they cannot sign him before that date, they could choose to leave Darling unprotected. It’s unlikely that Vegas would opt to choose a UFA who is seemingly holding out (considering they would have a limited negotiation period), but he might be one of the few UFAs that would be intriguing enough for them to roll the dice.
- Jaromir Jagr‘s agent is expected to meet with Florida Panthers management in hopes of negotiating a new contract. The 45 year-old future Hall of Famer has played for 8 separate franchises, but has spent his last 3 seasons in the sunshine state. Dale Tallon, newly re-instated, has nothing but praise for the tough, creative winger. This season, however, Jagr showed signs of slowing down, literally and figuratively. He posted a career low 16 goals and personally substandard 46 points. The totals were still good for 4th on the team, behind youngsters Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov, and Jonathan Marchessault. Jagr has repeatedly expressed his desire to keep playing until his body fails him, even proclaiming the goal of playing until the age of 60. Jagr will likely be able to find a fit for next season in Florida if his salary demands aren’t too excessive.
NHL Draft Lottery Notes: Odds, History, Viewing
For the fourteen teams that missed the playoffs and the expansion Vegas Golden Knights, they have one thing in common: they’re hoping Bill Daly is holding a card with their logo on it, announcing that they have the first overall pick.
At 7pm central, NBC, CBC, and Sportsnet will show the NHL Draft Lottery as the Colorado Avalanche lead all teams in terms of percentage for receiving the #1 pick. Below are the odds:
Colorado Avalanche — 18.0%
Vancouver Canucks — 12.1%
Vegas Golden Knights — 10.3%
Arizona Coyotes — 10.3%
New Jersey Devils — 8.5%
Buffalo Sabres — 7.6%
Detroit Red Wings — 6.7%
Dallas Stars — 5.8%
Florida Panthers — 5.4%
Los Angeles Kings — 4.5%
Carolina Hurricanes — 3.2%
Winnipeg Jets — 2.7%
Philadelphia Flyers — 2.2%
Tampa Bay Lightning 1.8%
New York Islanders — 0.9%
TSN has a lengthy writeup on the history of the lottery and how the current format differs from other versions. The biggest change for the draft is that instead of the worst team being guaranteed, at worst, a second overall pick, they are only promised a top four pick. This was placed to discourage teams from “tanking” to draft top-end talent, which hasn’t completely negated the idea of tanking as Toronto won the right to draft Auston Matthews last season with the #1 pick while securing the worst record in the NHL.
What’s new to 2017? From Sportsnet:
For just the second time in NHL draft lottery history, the top three picks are in play. This rule was implemented by the league in 2016 to dull incentive for any team to finish lower in the standings (i.e., tanking).
The odds of winning the second and third draws increases on a proportional basis depending on which team claimed the previous draw.
The addition of a 15th lottery team, Vegas, into the mix also affects the winning percentages.
This draft is different too, since the top two picks for the first time in three seasons are not considered the “generational talent” that Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Matthews or Patrik Laine were when looking back at the one and two overall picks respectively.
This isn’t to besmirch the top two candidates, Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier. After all, “can’t miss” prospects have fooled scouts and analysts before while prospects that scouts didn’t think were as good sometimes exceeded expectations.
But before the talent can be chosen, there needs to be an order. Tonight will determine that.
Specifics:
Time: 7pm CST
Where to watch: CBC, Sportsnet, NBC
Snapshots: Kucherov, Montgomery, Drug Testing
Nikita Kucherov took another step forward for the Tampa Bay Lightning this season after being given a three-year deal, but he can’t say the same for some of his teammates. In a translated interview with Pavel Lysenkov of Sovietsky Sport (h/t Sergey Demidov of NHL.com) Kucherov made it clear that not all his teammates were working hard enough this year.
…some guys overstayed in team. They’ve got their money and stopped working. They knew there’s no competition for their positions and organization is not going to take someone else. They played not really well this year—you can see it in their stats and way of play.
Kucherov’s agent Dan Milstein got in contact with Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times to explain the comments, saying that the translation is accurate and that he doesn’t feel like every player is “on board to win.” His agent also told Smith that Kucherov hopes to play his entire career for Tampa Bay “like his GM”—Steve Yzerman famously spent his entire career with the Detroit Red Wings before moving into management.
- Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet confirmed that Jim Montgomery interviewed in Florida for the vacant Panthers head coach position, but that the team will continue to look at all options before making a decision. Montgomery is coming off a national championship with the University of Denver, and has been rumored for all of the openings around the league this spring. The former NHL journeyman is a lock for a professional head coaching job eventually, and at just 47 years old has a long career still ahead of him in the industry.
- In the newest article from Rick Westhead of TSN, he reports that the league increased their screening for both marijuana and cocaine this year, testing all 2,300 samples for recreational drugs. The NHL doesn’t suspend players who test positive for recreational drugs, but does monitor it and enroll players in substance abuse programs if deemed necessary. While the increase in screening—up from just 800 of the samples in 2015—shows the leagues increasing awareness of a rising problem among NHL players. Westhead cites two different criminal offenses from the past that involved cocaine, and rumors have persisted for years about the drug being used throughout the league. The testing will likely continue next season, with perhaps even more steps being taken to squash the problem if it indeed continued this season.
Snapshots: Sabres, Montgomery, Gillies, Henderson
When the Buffalo Sabres fired both head coach Dan Bylsma and GM Tim Murray this morning, they effectively cleaned house and set themselves up to start all over again from the top down. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet now reports that it wasn’t just those two that were shown the door, but also Director of Pro Scouting Rob Murphy and Director of Amateur Scouting Greg Royce. It’s very surprising that these two would be let go so close to both the entry and expansion drafts, as whoever comes in will have to rely entirely on the scouts themselves to work through the process.
Perhaps Buffalo has a plan in place already, as both Mike Harrington of The Buffalo News and Chuck Gormley each have heard the name Norm MacIver in consideration for the position. Don’t count the Blackhawks’ assistant GM as hired yet, but he has long been thought of as a future GM in the league and would be a solid hire for the Sabres. For now, Sabres’ owner Terry Pegula will address the media tomorrow to explain all of the decisions, and likely give some insight as to where the team goes from here.
- Jim Montgomery will interview for the vacant Florida Panthers position according to Mike Chambers of the Denver Post. The college coach who led the University of Denver to victory over UMD in the NCAA Championship game, will meet with the Panthers in the next 7-10 days to see if there is a fit. Chambers says that Montgomery leaving could prompt several players to leave the school early and turn pro, as they committed to working with him and not whoever would follow in the position. Earlier this month it was reported that Henrik Borgstrom will return for his sophomore season, but he could easily follow Montgomery to Florida should he choose. The 19-year old was a first round pick of the Panthers last summer.
- The Calgary Flames have sent Jon Gillies back to the Stockton Heat for their playoff series after he watched the Anaheim Ducks defeat his NHL club. Gillies was serving as the emergency goaltender in Calgary and will now return to Stockton where he played the majority of the year. The Heat also signed Tyler Parsons to an amateur tryout today, meaning the goaltending situation in Stockton is quite full. Gillies will likely get the lion’s share of the starts in the postseason.
- In a story that just won’t go away, Don Henderson—the linesman injured by a blindside Dennis Wideman hit last season—has filed a $10.25MM lawsuit against Wideman and the Flames organization, according to Rick Westhead of TSN. Henderson has never returned to the league, and according to Westhead is now claiming he “has suffered a limitation of activities and loss of enjoyment of life” and a long list of medical symptoms from this incident.