Projecting Patrik Laine’s Future After This Season

Canadiens forward Patrik Laine is headed for free agency this summer. Despite a limited free agent market, he isn’t expected to attract much interest after another season marred by injuries.

Laine has only played five games this season, with just one assist, and until the trade deadline, he was a frequent topic of trade rumors as Montreal hoped to clear salary. Reports indicate he was mentioned in discussions with both the Maple Leafs and Flyers.

Laine hasn’t been a good fit with the Canadiens, and as summer approaches, it’s almost certain he will be wearing a different NHL jersey next season, likely at a cap hit significantly lower than his current $8.7MM salary. The question remains whether NHL teams will be interested and whether a good fit exists for the 2016 second overall pick.

Despite the injuries and inconsistencies that have challenged Laine’s career over the past half-decade, his shot remains among the best in the NHL, especially from long range, where he continues to be an elite scorer even if he hasn’t displayed his full skill set this year. Last season, Laine scored 20 goals in just 52 games, and he still likely projects as a 20- to 25-goal scorer despite limitations in nearly every other aspect of his game.

But that is the core issue with Laine: he is limited in what he can do, and his analytics away from the puck are appalling. This will cause many NHL teams to hesitate before considering him a viable free-agent target.

Laine has long been a liability in puck possession, and it wasn’t any better last season, when he was mainly used in an offensive role but still hindered his teammates’ possession. Given his health concerns, especially regarding his skating and agility, it’s unlikely these metrics will improve. This means any team that acquires Laine will need to isolate and shelter him, which is acceptable if he is earning close to the league minimum on a one-year deal.

When considering comparables, there aren’t many. In fact, this year, AFP Analytics can’t even project Laine’s potential contract for the 2026-27 season because there isn’t enough information available on Laine, which makes sense given that he’s only played five games this season.

A potential comparison who is by no means an exact match would be Anthony Mantha of the Penguins, who is currently earning $2.5MM on a one-year “prove it” deal he signed last summer. Mantha had a consistent track record of scoring 20 goals before last season, but he suffered a season-ending ACL injury and missed most of the year with the Calgary Flames. After posting just seven points in 13 games with Calgary, the 31-year-old bet on himself last summer, and it appears to be paying off as he looks set to be one of the top UFAs available this summer, which should give him a chance at a long-term contract in the coming years.

Although Mantha and Laine are very different players, there aren’t many better comparisons, but Jeff Skinner provides another example of what free agency could mean for Laine. Skinner has spent the last two seasons signing one-year, $3MM contracts as a UFA. However, like Mantha, he is over 30, at 33. Similar to Laine, Skinner is a fairly one-dimensional offensive player who can score goals but does little else, especially away from the puck, where he’s not exactly a Selke Trophy candidate.

Looking at Mantha and Skinner as reasonable comparables, since both are wingers, have notable flaws in their games, and can score, what can Laine expect in free agency? Mantha received a one-year, $2.5MM deal last summer, while Skinner signed a one-year, $3MM contract with San Jose.

Laine has several factors that position him above Mantha and Skinner. Laine was the second overall pick; he’s three years younger than Mantha was during his recent free agency and five years younger than Skinner. There’s a solid argument that Laine is a purer goal scorer than both Mantha and Skinner, which is mainly shown by his NHL career goal numbers. All these points suggest that Laine deserves a larger payday than both Mantha and Skinner.

But Mantha is arguably a more complete player than Laine, and Skinner has a longer track record of scoring goals than Laine. Those factors will work against Laine, but overall, he probably deserves a more substantial one-year contract than Mantha or Skinner received last summer. That said, this is a very thin free-agent crop, and teams will be desperate on July 1st to add scoring, which could make Laine appealing to more than one team despite the warts on his resume.

Where Laine ends up remains uncertain, but some contending teams facing the salary cap hurdle would likely be interested in acquiring a motivated, scoring forward at a low cost. Colorado and Dallas come to mind as possible destinations, as do the Penguins, who may lose Mantha to free agency unless they can negotiate a deal. In any case, Laine desperately needs to find a suitable fit if he wants to secure another lucrative NHL contract.