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A Few Of 2015’s Best Free Agent Signings

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While we might have ideas about which of this summer’s free agent signings were reasonable and which will eventually look like overpays, nothing is absolutely certain until those players finally take the ice for the 2016-17 season. A year later we can begin to determine which of last year’s free agent signings have worked out best.

It’s important to realize free agency, in practice, typically rewards players for past performances and not for what the player is likely going to contribute during the term of their new contract. Under the current CBA, most players do not reach unrestricted free agency until their late 20’s, after eight NHL seasons. Even players who make their NHL debuts immediately after being drafted are already 26 or 27 before accruing eight seasons in the league. At that age, most players are near the tail end of their prime or already beginning to enter the decline phase of their career. But with every team in the league usually willing to spend in free agency, bidding wars often break out and drive up the prices for those players available on the open market.

While every team looks for bargains in free agency, the reality is they are content to actually get their money’s worth as opposed to paying too much for too little. The following list comprises some – not all – of the best free agent deals signed last summer; the bargains as well as the deals where teams realized full value for their investments in year one. Granted, this is only after one year so some of the players on this list in the midst of multiyear contracts might not look so good down the road.

  • Paul Martin – San Jose (four years, $4.85MM AAV) – Martin might have been considered among the riskiest signings last summer. Already 34-years-old, it didn’t seem prudent giving the veteran blue liner a four-year deal. But Martin was everything the Sharks hoped for and needed in 2015-16. He may have only tallied 20 points in 78 games but he finished 3rd on the Sharks averaging 20:44 in ice time per game and was a steadying influence in San Jose’s top-four. His $4.85MM cap charge ranks 47th in the NHL among defensemen suggesting he’s being paid as a top-pair defender but with 79 blue liners set to account for $4MM annually against the cap, Martin’s charge isn’t out of line. This deal might not look so rosy as Martin ages but at least for season one its among the best signed in the summer of 2015.
  • Lee Stempniak – New Jersey (one year, $850K) – Stempniak is widely considered the steal of free agency last year. He went to camp with the Devils earning a job and a one-year deal worth just $850K. For their investment, New Jersey got 41 points in 63 games and subsequently flipped the veteran forward to Boston at the trade deadline for second (2017) and fourth-round (2016) picks. Yes, he benefited from receiving top-line minutes in New Jersey which may have partially inflated his offensive numbers, but he still did rank in the top-100 in Pts/60 averaging 1.76 at five-on-five. Stempniak was able to parlay his quality performance into a two-year deal with Carolina with a $2.5MM AAV.
  • Justin Williams – Washingtom (two years, $3.25MM AAV) – Williams, a three-time Stanley Cup winner, was imported in large part due to his track record as a proven and clutch playoff performer. Even though the Capitals bowed out in the second-round of the postseason, Williams still showed a penchant for coming up big when it mattered most. In games five and six of their second-round playoff series and with Washington on the verge of being oustered, Williams tallied two goals and three points. He wasn’t too shabby in the regular season either. Not only did he bring his usually stellar possession game – 53.1 CF% – but he also netted 22 goals and 52 points in 82 games. That’s excellent production for the 160th ranked salary cap hit among forwards.
  • Matt Cullen  – Pittsburgh (one year, $800K) – Cullen went the same route as Stempniak, going unsigned through the summer and eventually accepting a PTO with Pittsburgh. After making the roster out of camp, Cullen signed an $800K deal and rewarded the Penguins with terrific production in the team’s bottom-six. Cullen averaged 1.65 Pts/60 at even-strength, finishing with 16 goals and 32 points. Cullen played a key role in the Penguins Cup championship run, averaging the eight-most ice time among forwards and tallying four goals.

Feel free to chime in on the comments section if you feel we’ve omitted someone from this list. It wasn’t intended to necessarily be a full, comprehensive list but we wanted to point out some of 2015’s best signings.

NHL Announces Heritage Classic Schedule, Legends Roster

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Outdoor games are becoming more and more prevelant in today’s NHL, and the league announced today the schedule for the first of such games in the 2016-17 season.  The Heritage Classic will be held in Winnipeg this season, and will see the Jets face off against Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers – who were part of the very first Heritage Classic – on October 23rd, just a few weeks into the season.

Two legends teams will play on the Saturday (Oct 22), with Kevin Lowe and Dale Hawerchuk (both of whom will play in the game) announcing the rosters today. The spectacular Oilers legends squad will feature:

Dave Semenko
Wayne Gretzky (Captain)*
Mark Messier*
Glenn Anderson*
Paul Coffey*

Read more

Coyotes, Tobias Rieder Still At Impasse On New Deal

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Arizona GM John Chayka has already accomplished much this offseason but a GM’s work is never done. The Coyotes still have RFA Tobias Rieder to re-sign and it appears a deal is not close to being completed.

According to Rieder’s representation, agent Darren Ferris, “There’s been no discussions at this point that have made any meaningful change in anyone’s position.”

Rieder is coming off a 14-goal, 37-point performance this past season and is looking to cash in. Last month, Ferris appeared to have established their expectations for a new contract by naming Nazem Kadri as a reasonable comparable. Kadri netted a six-year deal with Toronto with an AAV of $4.5MM a year ago on the heels of an 18-goal, 39-point campaign. Rieder, 23, tallied 37 points a year ago and on the surface that performance would appear to represent a fair talking point on a new contract. However, Kadri had a much longer and more distinguished track record than the two-year veteran Coyotes forward.

First, Kadri was a high first round draft choice, going 7th overall in 2009. Rieder was a 4th round selection two years later. Teams are willing to bet on upside in contract negotiations and 1st round picks generally come with more untapped potential than 4th rounders.

Second, when Kadri agreed to his extension, he already had posted at least 40 points in four separate NHL campaigns, with a career best 50 coming in 2013-14. He also had six years of NHL experience, putting him just two years away from unrestricted free agency per the terms of the current CBA. Rieder, on the other hand, just completed his second NHL campaign, leaving him well away from unrestricted free agency. Kadri had accomplished far more at the NHL level over a far longer period of time than has Rieder to this point and was closer to reaching free agency.

Ferris also pointed out Jamie McGinn’s recent three-year contract with Arizona as a base line for negotiations. McGinn carries an AAV of $3.33MM.

Again, McGinn has been in the league a lot longer than Rieder (veteran of 450 NHL games) and has two, 20-goal campaigns on his resume. He also signed his deal as an UFA with far more leverage thanks to a broad market than Rieder has as an RFA.

As Morgan wrote, perhaps the most logical comparable given Rieder’s age, experience and production level is Vladislav Namestnikov of Tampa Bay. Through 127 career NHL games, Namestnikov has tallied 23 goals and 51 points, numbers reasonably close to Rieder’s. Namestnikov was selected with the 27th selection in the 1st round of the 2011 entry draft and is the same age as Rieder. Tampa secured Namestnikov’s services on a two-year deal worth slightly less than $2MM annually.

Rieder’s camp is marketing the winger using advanced stats and as we know, Chayka is well-versed in analytics. Evidently, Ferris has yet to make a compelling enough case to sway the Arizona GM to their way of thinking on Rieder’s value. Chayka is obviously sticking to his guns as whatever deal he and Rieder agree on sets a standard for future negotiations. Every new contract adds to the pool of possible comparable deals other agents will point to when advocating for their clients and it’s the job of club management to try to keep those salaries as low as possible.

Ferris has suggested the German-born Rieder would entertain offers to play overseas and while that possibility can’t be discounted, particularly if his European contract contained an out-clause, the NHL is the premier league in the world and most players want to play there. It might go down to the wire but I fully expect the Coyotes and Rieder to get a deal done, likely very similar to Namestnikov’s, but perhaps eclipsing $2MM in AAV.

 

Capology 101: College Free Agents

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With the rumors surrounding Jimmy Vesey and Thomas Di Pauli this offseason taking hold, PHR takes a quick look at how the CBA treats players who choose the NCAA development route.

Generally, a team who drafts a present or future college player retains their exclusive negotiating rights for four years, but that differs with the age of a player when they are signed.

18 and 19 year olds

Teams own a player’s rights up to and including the August 15th following his graduation* if the player is or becomes a college student prior to June 1st following his selection.**  The player must remain a student through to his college class’s graduation, and the player was 18 or 19 when drafted.

If a player quits school before his last semester, his drafting team owns his rights until the later of:

  • the 4th June 1st following his draft, or
  • 30 days after NHL Central Registry receives notice that the player is not a student.

If a player quits school after his last semester starts, and is in his 4th year of college and either 4th year of NCAA eligibility or scheduled to graduate, then his drafting team owns his rights until the August 15th following his college termination.

20+

If a player drafted at age 20 is or becomes a college student, then the drafting team retains his rights until the later of:

  • the 2nd June 1st following his draft, or
  • 30 days after NHL Central Registry receives notice that the player is not a student.

Some pundits call the entire system a NCAA loophole, but the reality is much more nuanced. Teams still get four years of exclusive negotiating rights while a player seeking to enter unrestricted free agency must still sign an entry level contract wherever they sign. What that means is that a player finishing college could join the team that drafted him and burn off a year of his ELC. Going to free agency, however, removes that option, and leaves a year of free agency money on the table. It is a give and take that protects both parties.

___________

*Graduation is defined as the class with which the player is scheduled to graduate during his final semester. It is not his matriculating class.
**The same rules apply if a player receives a Bona Fide Offer and enters college prior to the 2nd June 1st following the draft.

Snapshots: NHLPA, Boston’s Prospects, Murphy

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Ian McLaren writes that the NHLPA has hired Bruce Meyer as the senior director of collective bargaining, policy, and legal. NHLPA executive director Donald Fehr commented that the hiring brings someone in who has over three decades of legal experience. The current collective bargaining agreement is set to expire on September 15, 2022. However, the league or the player’s union can opt out of the current early, just at different dates. As long as it is delivered in writing, the NHL can opt out on September 1, 2019. The NHLPA can opt out on September 15, 2019.

The addition of Meyer brings more talent into the NHLPA’s fold  as many analysts felt the NHL “won” the last round of labor war. There have been work stoppages in each of the last three negotiations which included an entire season wiped out in 2004-05. Both the 1994-95 and 2012-13 were shortened as a result of the league and player’s union’s negotiations.

In other NHL news:

  • Joe Haggerty writes that prospects Ryan Donato and Ryan Fitzgerald are on their way in terms of development. Both are currently playing college hockey, Donato with Harvard and Fitzgerald with Boston College. While Donato is entering his sophomore season that is full of promise, Fitzgerald is gearing up for what will be his final season playing college hockey. Haggerty reports that Fitzgerald, coming off a 47 point (27-20) campaign in 2015-16, seems to be saying the right things in terms of joining the Bruins upon graduation. However, as Haggerty points out, anything is possible should Fitzgerald have a dominant senior season.
  • Sarah McLellan reports that with the signings of Connor Murphy and Michael Stone, the defensive corps are all but solidified. Though McLellan points out more moves could happen, she writes that the Coyotes are happy with the long term deal with Murphy, who appeared to take the next step in his development last season. Stone, who suffered a season ending knee injury, expressed his desire to put in the work to earn a long term deal down the road.

Arizona Coyotes Depth Chart

Boston Bruins Depth Chart

 

The Holdup On Auston Matthews Contract

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As discussed here, Auston Matthews is one of only four unsigned players selected in the top-10 of this June’s entry draft. Two of those players, Clayton Keller (7th overall to Arizona) and Tyson Jost (10th overall to Colorado) have firm commitments to NCAA programs and are not expected to ink their Entry Level Contracts (ELC) until they are ready to turn pro. That leaves Matthews and #5 overall choice Olli Juolevi as the only players in the top-10 realistically expected to sign their first pro contracts that have not already done so.

Kevin McGran writes about the impasse with Matthews here.

Lou Lamoriello is a savvy, veteran GM who usually closes deals on his terms and we already know he isn’t particularly keen on including performance bonuses in rookie contracts. However in this instance, he may have to give ground. Matthews was the consensus #1 overall draft choice in June and each of last year’s top-two selections, Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, received the maximum bonus value permitted under the CBA ($2.85MM on top of the $925K in base salary).

As McGran discusses, the implications of Toronto sticking to their guns may be felt far beyond this single negotiation. Veteran players, both who currently suit up for the Leafs and future free agent targets, may not think too highly of the organization trying to squeeze a few measly bucks from a young player widely-hailed as the future of the franchise..

Additionally, as we’ve seen in Colorado with Tyson Barrie and Ryan O’Reilly, this type of contentious negotiation now can potentially lead to bigger problems later. Should Matthews fulfill his promise as an elite, two-way #1 center, extending him upon the completion of his entry level contract might prove to be far more difficult should Toronto continue to hold firm on bonus demands.

Granted, there is still plenty of time for an agreement to be reached (roughly two months) but this should have been a relatively straight-forward negotiation. The second overall pick, Patrik Laine, signed for $3.575MM, assuming he meets his bonuses. Pierre-Luc Dubois and Jesse Puljujarvi, chosen third and fourth overall, respectively, can each earn up to $3.425MM per season. It’s hard to imagine any team making a logical case for the #1 overall pick to not maximize his earning potential when each of the players selected after him have contracts in place that can pay out close to the maximum amount.

Like everyone else, I expect a deal to be wrapped up in plenty of time for Matthews to begin the season with the Leafs. However, I can understand why Toronto fans might be feeling a little uneasy with the overall tenor and pace of negotiations.

Brad Richards Retires

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According the NHLPA website, veteran pivot Brad Richards has retired from the NHL following a distinguished 15-year career.

Richards, who spent the 2015-16 season with the Detroit Red Wings, ends his career with 932 points in 1,126 regular season games. He’s also been part of two Stanley Cup championship squads, winning a Conn Smythe award as playoff MVP in 2003-04 while a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Drafted originally in the third-round (64th overall) of the 1998 entry draft (the same draft that saw Vincent Lecavalier go #1 overall to Tampa), Richards formed a deadly tandem down the middle with Lecavalier, and helped to elevate the team into the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference. He would spend the first six-plus campaigns of his career with the Lightning before being shipped to Dallas at the 2008 trade deadline. With Lecavalier in the midst of an 11-year, $85MM deal and Richards under contract at $7.8MM annually, the Lightning decided they could no longer afford both centers and executed the trade with Dallas.

Richards spent parts of four seasons with Dallas, averaging better than a point-per-game and helping the Stars to a berth in the 2007-08 Western Conference Finals, where the club lost to eventual Stanley Cup champion Detroit in six games. Unfortunately that would be the highlight for Richards during his tenure with the team as the Stars failed to again make the postseason.

Richards would leave the Lone Star State following the 2010-11 season and as one of the marquee free agents that summer, would go on to sign a lucrative, nine-year contract worth $60MM with the New York Rangers. As was typical with big money free agent contracts of the day, Richards’ deal was heavily back-loaded in an effort to drive down the AAV and subsequently the salary cap hit. Richards was to collect $57MM of the money in the first six seasons, with each of the final three years coming with salaries of just $1M each.

While perhaps not quite living up to that price tag with the Rangers, Richards did help the club make it to the Eastern Conference Finals his first year with the team. He was also part of the squad that lost to the Los Angeles Kings in the 2013-14 Stanley Cup Finals.

After three years with the club and in desperate need of cap space as they continued their pursuit of a championship, the Rangers exercised a compliance buyout on Richards following the 2014-15 season. Under terms of the new CBA, the Blueshirts would have faced stiff cap recapture penalties had they not gone that route and Richards retired prior to the end of his contract.

Richards would move on as a free agent, signing with Chicago and winning another Stanley Cup with the Blackhawks. But the writing may have already been on the wall as Richards tallied just 37 points that season, the lowest full-season total of his career to that point.

Following his one year in Chicago, Richards signed with Detroit where his offensive production continued to wane. In 68 contests with the Red Wings, Richards scored just 10 goals and 28 points.

The announcement comes just weeks after former Lightning teammate Vincent Lecavalier also stepped away from the game.  It’s also quite possible Dan Boyle joins in to make it a trio of former Lightning players walking away from the NHL this summer. One year ago, Martin St. Louis, who played with Richards, Boyle and Lecavalier in Tampa and again with Richards and Boyle as members of the Rangers, announced his retirement.

Richards was a free agent, profiled recently on Pro Hockey Rumors here, but after apparently not finding the right fit, has elected to hang up his skates and move on to the next phase of his life. Those of us here at Pro Hockey Rumors would like to congratulate Richards on his wonderful career and wish him the best in his future.

Capology Recap

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ProHockeyRumors occasionally delves into the inner workings of the CBA to explain concepts crucial to modern NHL deals. Check out our past Capology posts and be on the lookout for future ones.

Capology 101 Posts

Buyouts: Explaining how NHL buyouts work and how to calculate a buyout’s cap hit.
Player Contracts: Outlining the limitations imposed by the CBA on player contracts.
NTCs and NMCs: Defining and explaining no-trade clauses and no-movement clauses.
RFA (Part One): Exploring what it means to be a restricted free agent.
Salary Arbitration (Part One and Two): Examining salary arbitration eligibility and the hearing process.

Capology 101: Arbitration (Part 2)

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In part one of our arbitration series we looked at arbitration eligibility. This next section details the hearing process, including permissible evidence and the repercussions of the arbitrator’s decision.

Salary arbitration determines a player’s salary through a hearing governed by a third-party arbitrator. The arbitrator takes all the permissible evidence into account in deciding how much a player should be paid per year. This section outlines three key elements of that process: term, permissible evidence, and the decision.

Term

The party being brought to salary arbitration chooses whether the decision is for one or two years. If a team chooses, however, they are restricted to one year if the player is eligible for unrestricted free agent the following year.

Evidence

Parties can present witnesses, affidavits (sworn written testimony), documents, statistics, and any other relevant evidence during the hearing, subject to certain restrictions (see more below). The CBA suggests the following preferred evidence:

  • the player’s overall performance in previous seasons;
  • number of games played in context of injuries or illnesses (or lack thereof);
  • length of service in the league or with the team;
  • how much a player contributed to the success/failure of his team last season;
  • special qualities of leadership or public appeal relevant to his team responsibilities (i.e. the intangibles).
  • performance of players considered comparable to the player in question by either party; or
  • compensation of players considered comparable to the player in question by either party.

As stated above, this list is subject to certain restrictions.  The CBA prohibits parties from introducing or using the following:

  • any contract signed outside restricted free agency, including one signed after a team exercises a walk-away right;
  • any contract of a player not considered a comparable by either party;
  • any contract otherwise permissible that is signed less than three hours before the hearing starts.
  • qualifying offers;
  • the negotiation history between the parties, including any offers made;
  • testimonials, videotapes, newspaper columns, press game reports, or similar materials;
  • references to walk-away rights;
  • any award issued by an arbitrator that preceded a team exercising its walk-away rights;
  • a team or NHL’s financial condition;
  • a team’s salary cap (or floor) situation;
  • any salary arbitration award issued in ’05-’06; or
  • compensation information for salary arbitration awards issued before July 22nd 2005.

There are three main takeaways from the evidentiary rules. One, the arbitrator’s decision is based largely on a player’s stats and intangibles, and the compensation received by players with similar stats and intangibles. Two, visual evidence such as highlight reels and game tape do not factor in to the arbitrator’s decision. This makes any determination strictly fact-based. Finally, if, during a players hearing, a comparable player signs an otherwise admissible contract, that contract cannot be used as evidence by either party.

Decision

The arbitrator’s decision comes within 48 hours after the hearing closes. The decision states:

  • the contract term (one or two years as mentioned above);
  • NHL salary to be paid by the team for that term;
  • whether it is a two-way contract, and how much the player is paid in the AHL; and
  • a statement explaining the decision.

Walk Away Rights

A team may reject an arbitration decision in a player-elected salary arbitration if the award is $3.9MM or more per year. That threshold increases by the same percentage rate that the average league salary increases.

A team does not have unlimited walk away rights. Rather, the number of times a team can reject a decision is tied to the number of decisions issued. A team facing up to two decisions has one walk away right. A team facing three of four decisions has two walk away rights. Finally, a team facing five decisions has three walk away rights.

The consequences of rejecting a decision depends on whether the club elected a one or two year term. If the decision is for a one year term, the player immediately becomes an unrestricted free agent. If the decision is for a two year term, the player and team enter into a one year contract for the salary awarded. The player becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of that year.

Ryane Clowe To Join Devils Coaching Staff

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According to a release from the New Jersey Devils, Ryane Clowe has been named an assistant under head coach John Hynes. Clowe, a rugged power forward in his playing days, hasn’t suited up for the Devils since November 6th, 2014 due to complications stemming from the several concussions he sustained during his playing career.

Clowe spent the first seven-plus seasons of his NHL career as a member of the San Jose Sharks and tallied 101 goals along with 170 assists. He also found time to rack up 567 PIMs while with the Sharks.

The New York Rangers acquired Clowe ahead of the 2013 trade deadline in exchange for multiple draft picks. He would see action in 12 regular season contests and another two in the playoffs before leaving the team in the summer as a free agent to sign with the Devils.

Because Clowe has not officially retired, his $4.85MM cap hit will remain on the books for salary cap purposes, helping the club reach the salary floor. The team can clear that cap hit by placing the player on LTIR prior to the season starting. It seems strange a player’s cap hit can remain on the books while he’s working in a non-playing capacity for the organization but the current NHL CBA allows it. In fact, while still a member of the Flyers prior to his cap hit being dealt to Arizona, Chris Pronger held a position in Philadelphia’s front office.

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