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Pacific Division Notes: Coyotes, Daly, Marleau, Goldobin

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After acquiring Dave Bolland and Pavel Datsyuk in separate trades this summer, the Arizona Coyotes could be in a position to conceivably carry nearly $18MM – once Chris Pronger’s $4.935MM cap hit is added – on their salary cap for three players who won’t be suiting up for the this year. All told, the Coyotes will pay out just $1.675 in actual salary for those players (Pronger is set to earn $575K in the final season of a long-term arrangement he originally signed with Philadelphia, while the insurance policy on Bolland’s contract will cover all but $1.1MM once he is placed on LTIR). These maneuverings have allowed Arizona to easily cross the salary cap floor while at the same time limiting the actual salary obligations; not an unimportant factor for a small market, budget team.

In a piece appearing on Today’s Slapshot, Craig Morgan asked NHL deputy commissioner if Arizona’s handling of the salary cap was a growing concern for the league. Surprisingly, Daly indicated the league did not feel the Coyotes were exploiting a “loophole,” in the CBA while still leaving open the possibility the NHL could look to address the matter in future bargaining with the player’s union.

“I would say that it’s a matter that we monitor, like all other areas of the CBA (collective bargaining agreement), and if we believe it starts to be abused in a way that is inconsistent with how the system is designed to work, at that point, we would try to correct it in collective bargaining with the union. I would say we aren’t at that point on this issue — we do not view it as the loophole that‎ some describe it as.”

While most teams utilize their available cap space to sign or trade for players from other organizations, or to extend their own players, Coyotes GM John Chayka is using Arizona’s as a method to add more quality young talent to what is already considered a strong group of prospects. It’s simply good business and soon enough Chayka’s talent-acquisition strategies will start paying off on the ice for the Coyotes.

Elsewhere in the Pacific Division…

  • Patrick Marleau has spent the entirety of his excellent 18-year NHL career with the San Jose Sharks; a career which has seen the forward tally 481 regular season goals and 1,036 points. Marleau’s name has shown up in trade rumors on more than one occasion during his time in the Bay Area, most recently last season, but nothing has ever come of it. Yet, as Joey Alfieri of Pro Hockey Talk writes, the 2016-17 campaign will, in all probability, be the final one of Marleau’s storied Sharks career. As Alfieri points out, Marleau is in the final year of his contract and the team has several younger options on the LW – Mikkel Boedker, Tomas Hertl and Nikolay Goldobin – under team control for the next several seasons. Even if Marleau is willing to take a discount on the $6.66MM he is earning this season, the Sharks are far more likely to prioritize re-signing Brent Burns and Joe Thornton, both of whom are also scheduled to reach free agency next summer.
  • The Calgary Flames recently reached agreement with one of their top players, Sean Monahan, inking the restricted free agent to a monster seven-year deal worth $44.6MM. That’s quite an investment for a player just coming off his ELC but as the Calgary Sun’s Kristen Odland writes, Monahan is already well worth the financial commitment. She points out that he has produced more offense than other pivots comparable in age and who have also recently signed extensions. As good as Monahan is he may not even be the best player on his team. That distinction might belong to winger Johnny Gaudreau, a restricted free agent who remains unsigned. Inevitably the Flames will also get Gaudreau under contract but it will be interesting to see how his contract compares to that of Monahan’s.

Offer Sheets And The Remaining RFAs

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Training camps open soon and valuable restricted free agents (RFAs) remain unsigned. An RFA has two options if he cannot reach a deal with his current team: sit out or sign with another club via an offer sheet. There are rules and restrictions regarding offer sheets, and the following guide should help navigate the thicket before training camp starts.

Offer Sheets are governed by Section 10.3 and 10.4 of the CBA. The basic premise is that an RFA can sign a contract with any club, but the RFAs prior club has seven days to match the principal terms—salary, bonuses, and length. If a prior club matches, then they are bound to the contract. If the prior club declines to match, however, they get compensated with draft picks from the RFA’s new club. The draft pick compensation is commensurate with the average annual value (AAV) of the RFA’s new contract. The prior club gets better (and more) draft picks the higher the contract value.

Determining draft pick compensation is easy. Take the full salary offered and divide it by the contract term, but only up to five years. Even if a player signed a seven year contract, the CBA dictates that the salary only be divided by five. The resulting number determines the draft picks a prior club receives from the new club. The CBA breaks the compensation down into tiers, and CapFriendly published a convenient guide:

Offer Sheet Chart

The draft pick compensation mechanism limits the teams that can submit offer sheets. A team must only use its own draft picks—not picks previously owned by another team—and must have them available for the next draft. General Fanager has a great resource that keeps track of which teams can submit offer sheets at each value tier. If a team owes two picks in the same round, both picks must be available in the next three drafts. If they owe four, then they must be available in the next five drafts.

Fourteen RFAs remain unsigned as of writing, and with NHL training camp only two weeks away, time is ticking for both players and teams. The following players still have yet to sign, in order of last season’s scoring:

  1. Johnny Gaudreau – Calgary Flames
  2. Nikita Kucherov – Tampa Bay Lightning
  3. Rickard Rakell – Anaheim Ducks
  4. Rasmus Ristolainen – Buffalo Sabres
  5. Tobias Rieder – Arizona Coyotes
  6. Dmitry Orlov – Washington Capitals
  7. Valeri Nichushkin – Dallas Stars
  8. Hampus Lindholm – Anaheim Ducks
  9. Ryan Strome – New York Islanders
  10. Jacob Trouba – Winnipeg Jets
  11. Zemgus Girgensons – Buffalo Sabres
  12. Nikita Nesterov – Tampa Bay Lightning
  13. Stefan Elliott – Nashville Predators
  14. Freddie Hamilton – Calgary Flames

Some teams are close to signing their RFAs—like the Flames and Gaudreau—but others, like Arizona and Rieder, are far apart. The next two weeks should bring a wave of signings, but for now offer sheet speculation ramps up as fans ponder what a player is worth and whether a team is better off receiving draft picks or matching value.

Snapshots: Fehr, NHLPA, Vegas, Lucic, Pietrangelo

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The head of the NHLPA, Donald Fehr, recently sat down with the Canadian media to discuss the upcoming World Cup of Hockey while also touching on other subjects of note. An edited and condensed version of the interview was posted by Jonas Siegel on The Globe And Mail. As usual, the entire piece is worth a read but here are some of the highlights.

When asked whether or not the union was on board with the timing of the tournament, Fehr said, “it’s not that pre-season is the best time, but it probably is, at the moment, better than the others.”

He would go on to state: “There has been some informal discussions, for purposes of this World Cup that never rose to the level of serious consideration, that maybe we ought to do it in February. And it’s conceivable that that would be considered going forward.”

There is no perfect time to hold an event like this. Any way you look at it, a tournament held at any point in the year is going to prolong the season and shorten the summer for the players. While teams would probably prefer their players not to participate due in large part to the risk of injury, both owners and union members have a vested interest in successfully pulling off events of this nature since the added revenue will be divided by the players and the league.

Fehr also addressed the idea of European expansion from the players’ perspective. He indicated at least a few players have taken note of the KHL’s presence on the continent and the fact that so many players are European born. While making it clear these conversations were of the internal variety and did not involve the NHL in any way, Fehr did seem to suggest the players would be open to the idea and it was something that would merit further study.

Finally, on the subject of the potential of another lockout, Fehr pointed out that baseball has been the only sport to experience prolonged labor peace over the last two decades. He also mentions, probably not coincidentally, that baseball is the only major sports league without a salary cap.

In terms of possibly avoiding another work stoppage following the 2018-19 campaign when both parties will have the option of opting out of the current CBA, Fehr referenced just how far off that point in time is relative to the average player’s career by saying: “our membership will turn over more than 50 per cent between now and then.”

More from around the NHL:

  • The Las Vegas expansion franchise today announced yet another addition to their front office/operations staff. The club has hired Mike Levine for a scouting/player development position. Levine spent the last three years as an assistant coach at Brown University. According to the release on the Vegas Is Hockey website, Levine comes with a solid reputation as a recruiter both at the collegiate and prep levels.
  • Not surprisingly, Milan Lucic said as many as 10 teams expressed serious interest in signing the big winger before he inked a seven-year contract with Edmonton, according to Chris Nichols writing for Today’s Slap Shot. Lucic was one of the top players available on July 1st and was guaranteed to generate a lot of interest on the free agent market. It’s not certain how many of Lucic’s suitors were willing to extend themselves as far as the Oilers did, either financially or with a seven-year term, but his status as a coveted free agent was never in doubt. He would ultimately choose Edmonton, saying, “I went with my heart and my loyalty to Peter and chose the Edmonton Oilers.”
  • Sportsnet’s John Shannon tweeted earlier today that the St. Louis Blues will announce Alex Pietrangelo as the team’s new captain tomorrow. He will replace David Backes, who left St. Louis in free agency after accepting a five-year deal with the Boston Bruins. The choice of Pietrangelo makes a lot of sense given he is one of the team’s best players, has been with the organization his entire pro career and is under long-term contract ensuring he will be a Blue for the foreseeable future.

Potential 2016-17 Impact Rookies: Aho, Bjorkstrand, Werenski, Buchnevich

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It seems we’ve spent most of the offseason talking about Jimmy Vesey and pondering which of his many suitors would ultimately be fortunate enough to add him to their ranks. That chase is finally over with the New York Rangers coming out on top in their efforts to land the prized UFA forward from Harvard. Whether or not Vesey performs up to the high expectations all of the summer hype would suggest remains to be seen, of course, but this saga serves as a reminder of just how much teams value young talent on entry-level deals.

With the salary cap – or in some cases, internal budgets – forcing teams to allow quality veteran pieces to depart each summer in search of a bigger pay day, teams need young players to step in and fill roles vacated by experienced players. The CBA limits how much a player can earn on their ELC thus allowing clubs more freedom to spend lavishly on star players as long as they have enough young talent to balance out their budgets. By virtue of his status as an UFA limited to signing an ELC, Vesey has understandably garnered an unusually high level of attention for a soon-to-be first year player but he won’t be the only rookie expected to make a near immediate impact with his team in 2016-17.

In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile first-year players who will have an opportunity to step in right away and fill a potentially critical role for their team. Today we start in the Metro Division. (Note: In an effort to keep these posts relatively short, some divisions may be covered in multiple posts).

Sebastian Aho (Carolina) – Aho was the Hurricanes second-round choice in the 2015 draft out of Finland and signed his ELC with the club in June. He led his Liiga team (Finland’s top professional league), Karpat, in scoring in 2015-16 tallying 20 goals and 45 points in 45 games. Aho also has achieved remarkable success representing his home country at both the 2016 IIHF World Championships and the 2016 World Juniors. He recorded seven points for the silver medal winning Finns at the World Championships while averaging two points per game – 14 in seven contests – in helping Finland win gold at the Juniors tournament.

It would seem given his performances on some of the biggest stages in the sport that Aho should be ready for the NHL game. Count Hurricanes GM Ron Francis among those who believe Aho can contribute in Carolina immediately.

“Sebastian is regarded as one of the top prospects in hockey and is ready to begin his North American career. He had a tremendous season as an 18-year-old playing against men in Finland’s top league, and was outstanding in international competitions including the recent World Championship. He will play an important role for the Hurricanes moving forward.”

Carolina’s depth chart on Roster Resource lists Aho as the team’s third right wing and given Francis’ quotes, it seems probable he will be given every opportunity to become a key contributor right out of the gate. The Hurricanes have an excellent young blue line but need help up front if they wish to challenge for the playoffs. Aho’s skills and playmaking abilities would be a welcome addition to Carolina’s forward ranks.

Oliver Bjorkstrand (Columbus) – Danish forward Oliver Bjorkstrand proved he was ready for a prime time role with the Blue Jackets during an impressive playoff run as a member of the Lake Erie Monsters, Columbus’ AHL affiliate. The Monsters lost just one game en route to winning a Calder Cup and Bjorkstrand helped pave the way tallying 10 postseason goals. He was even more prolific in the Calder Cup Finals scoring five times, with three proving to be of the game-winning variety.

His head coach with the Monsters, Jared Bednar, had this to say about Bjorkstrand:

“He has a will to win that’s unparalleled, and that’s why he has always been successful, no matter where he’s been.”

The Blue Jackets have several quality young players that will soon be ready to challenge for NHL roles but Bjorkstrand’s determination and recent postseason success should give him an advantage over his peers at cracking the Columbus lineup. Columbus could theoretically compete for a playoff spot, assuming a return to health and form from goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, along with an improved defense corps. Bjorkstrand should add more skilled depth to the forward group and he could enjoy a productive season if he finds chemistry with the right players.

Zach Werenski (Columbus) – Possibly joining Bjorkstrand in Columbus in time for the 2016-17 season is D Zach Werenski. Werenski, the team’s first round pick in 2015, eighth overall, played two seasons at the University of Michigan prior to signing his ELC last spring. He would see action in seven AHL regular season games, scoring one goal, before embarking on an excellent playoff run. In 17 postseason contests, Werenski tallied five goals and 14 points in helping the Monsters to the Calder Cup.

Werenski already boasts NHL size at 6-foot-2 and 209 pounds and adds tremendous skating ability as well as poise under pressure. Even after the addition of rising star Seth Jones via a mid-season trade with Nashville and the presence of Ryan Murray, Werenski has an excellent shot to break training camp with the big club. If Werenski develops as expected, the Blue Jackets could quickly transform their blue line from one of the league’s worst to one of the best in relatively short order.

Pavel Buchnevich (New York Rangers) – Vesey isn’t the only rookie the Rangers will likely be welcoming to the lineup for the 2016-17 season. Pavel Buchnevich, the team’s top prospect and a 2013 third round choice, elected to make the jump to North America and signed his ELC this past spring. While skating in the KHL, widely considered the second best league in the word behind the NHL, Buchnevich tallied a respectable 37 points in 58 regular season games.

To put those numbers in a bit of perspective, Rob Vollman in the Hockey Abstract has constructed a predictive chart to convert offensive numbers from one league to another based primarily on historical data involving players appearing in both leagues and how they’ve fared moving from one to the other. Buchnevich’s points-per-game ratio in the KHL projects to be roughly the equivalent of a 40-point campaign in the NHL based on Vollman’s chart. That’s pretty solid for a 20-year-old player.

The Rangers wouldn’t seem to need much of an offensive boost after finishing seventh in the NHL in goal scoring and returning much of their top-six forward talent – excepting of course the swap of Derick Brassard for Mika Zibanejad – but Alain Vigneault tends to use his third line as much or more than most NHL head coaches. That should allow for a rookie with the skill and ability of Buchnevich to earn quality ice time while also shielding him from the tougher match-ups.

 

The Vesey Watch Is Coming To An End

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This morning one of the most trusted names in hockey journalism finally gave us what we’ve been waiting for – an end.  Bob McKenzie of TSN chimed in on the Jimmy Vesey situation for the first time, to tell us that it is coming to and end today, probably. While McKenzie says it may stretch until Saturday, it will go no further than that. Andrew Gross of The Record also hears that it’ll end today, as does Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News.

Arthur Staple of Newsday gives us the latest update on the finalists; he’s heard that it’s down to the New York Rangers and Chicago Blackhawks, noting that the Islanders made a strong push but fell short.

An amazing amount of proverbial and literal ink has been spilled over the free agency of Vesey, more than most prospects get in their entire amateur careers. Now, with it coming to an end, Vesey will have to start performing immediately or risk the ire of an entire fanbase.

If the Harvard grad struggles, like many prospects before him, he’ll be met with songs of “all that for this guy?” at his home arena and “over-hyped” will be firmly entrenched beside his name in the program. But for all the hype that the media (including PHR) has created, Vesey is none to blame. He’s done nothing but exercise his rights under the current CBA, just as other players have done in the last few days.

Three things have made it into a media whirlwind though: the lack of other hockey news in August, the uncertainty of the level of college hockey in the USA when compared to other amateur leagues, and the relatively poor free agent market after its biggest name re-signed before July 1.

Obviously, as any other year, August is one of the slowest months for hockey news.  Teams have built their core, and are waiting for training camp to open. While many fringe free agents remain unsigned, the meat has been almost completely stripped from the bone.

The NCAA still proves to be a hard league to create equivalents from. Because the league has such a spread of talent, and has only started to become respected as a strong development option in the last couple of decades, fans and media alike aren’t sure exactly how to examine base statistics.

In the CHL, it’s common to see top prospects crack 100 points and dominate in their draft year. But the college ranks play less games, and require more of their athletes outside of hockey – indeed, Vesey will graduate with a degree from Harvard University, and to put it in his own words: “College is an ultrastressful environment — we’re balancing school, hockey, internships, our social lives and so many other things.” The fact is that the Frozen Four isn’t as well covered as the Memorial Cup (the CHL championship) is in Canada, and that many fans have never even seen a college hockey game, and they’re just not sure what Vesey really is.

What he isn’t, though, is Steven Stamkos. When Steve Yzerman pulled the unthinkable and re-signed his superstar centerman just prior to him becoming a free agent, the summer lost its biggest story. All of a sudden the best free agent in history was off the market, and we were left with an unspectacular group (despite the amount of money that was spent on it). Vesey represents the unknown, and for at least a handful of teams (a group similar to the ones reportedly “in” on Stamkos) another chance to land the summer’s biggest fish.

Capology 101: International Tidbits

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With the IIHF World Championships behind us, and the World Cup of Hockey on the horizon, PHR takes a quick look at how the CBA governs international play.

  • Any revenue from the World Cup of Hockey will not be considered Hockey Related Revenue (HRR). Rather, the revenue will be split equally between the NHL and the NHLPA. That means that any money the World Cup of Hockey brings in has no effect on next year’s salary cap. Given that the World Cup—the first such tournament since 2004—is in hockey-mad Toronto, high revenues are expected, and would have had a significant effect on the salary cap if applicable.
  • Moreover, the World Cup may actually have an adverse effect on HRR as the tournament takes the game’s brightest stars away from pre-season games. Teams usually play preseason games in different locales, and demand may suffer slightly as fans aren’t able to see a team’s top player.
  • Revenue from International NHL games, however, such as regular season and pre-season games overseas, qualifies as HRR for salary cap purposes.
  • A player is only eligible for the IIHF World Championships (usually held in May) if:
    • the player’s club either did not make the NHL playoffs or was eliminated in an early round (1st or 2nd); and
    • the national team (agent or otherwise) did not contact the player before his team was eliminated from the playoffs.
  • The IIHF or Player’s National Team must also insure the player’s remaining SPC value, and any additional earning capacity should a player get injured. If a player is injured in the World Championships, the player is treated as being injured in an NHL game for CBA purposes. That means the player is still eligible for all benefits available to players injured in NHL games.

Snapshots: Kings, Whitney, Lockout

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Adam Gretz wrote a piece today on Pro Hockey Talk that opines Dustin Brown has endured one of the biggest falls-from-grace in the NHL, and is now under huge pressure to perform for the Los Angeles Kings this season. Brown was once a feared power forward in the league, capable on any shift of contributing with a bone-crushing hit or a beautiful goal. Now, he’s a bottom-sixer who, while still contributing positively to the Kings’ dominant possession game, is vastly under-performing his contract that sits at a $5.875MM AAV. Brown was stripped of the captaincy, which will now belong to Anze Kopitar, the Kings’ superstar centerman.

  • Former NHL star Ray Whitney is at the Olympics for the first time in his career, but it’s not as a hockey player.  The 22-year veteran is caddying for Canadian golfer Graham DeLaet, who shot a -3 in his first round at the tournament. DeLaet was one of the first through the course this morning, and spoke about his caddy: “He’s a great player in his own right. I think it’ll be great to have Ray there, he was telling me he thinks he’d be on four olympic (hockey) teams if he’d been born in any other country.” It’s true, Whitney was a great player; his 1064 points rank him 64th all-time, while his 385 goals put him just outside the top-100.
  • Hannah Stuart of Today’s Slapshot penned an article examining just what might trigger the next NHL lockout. She argues that by signing contracts that protect them from a work-stoppage – those that have exorbitantly large signing bonuses – they’ve essentially ensured that a stoppage will eventually happen, if only to correct this loophole. Both sides (the NHL and NHLPA) can choose to opt out of the current CBA in September of 2019.

A Few Of 2015’s Best Free Agent Signings

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While we might have ideas about which of this summer’s free agent signings were reasonable and which will eventually look like overpays, nothing is absolutely certain until those players finally take the ice for the 2016-17 season. A year later we can begin to determine which of last year’s free agent signings have worked out best.

It’s important to realize free agency, in practice, typically rewards players for past performances and not for what the player is likely going to contribute during the term of their new contract. Under the current CBA, most players do not reach unrestricted free agency until their late 20’s, after eight NHL seasons. Even players who make their NHL debuts immediately after being drafted are already 26 or 27 before accruing eight seasons in the league. At that age, most players are near the tail end of their prime or already beginning to enter the decline phase of their career. But with every team in the league usually willing to spend in free agency, bidding wars often break out and drive up the prices for those players available on the open market.

While every team looks for bargains in free agency, the reality is they are content to actually get their money’s worth as opposed to paying too much for too little. The following list comprises some – not all – of the best free agent deals signed last summer; the bargains as well as the deals where teams realized full value for their investments in year one. Granted, this is only after one year so some of the players on this list in the midst of multiyear contracts might not look so good down the road.

  • Paul Martin – San Jose (four years, $4.85MM AAV) – Martin might have been considered among the riskiest signings last summer. Already 34-years-old, it didn’t seem prudent giving the veteran blue liner a four-year deal. But Martin was everything the Sharks hoped for and needed in 2015-16. He may have only tallied 20 points in 78 games but he finished 3rd on the Sharks averaging 20:44 in ice time per game and was a steadying influence in San Jose’s top-four. His $4.85MM cap charge ranks 47th in the NHL among defensemen suggesting he’s being paid as a top-pair defender but with 79 blue liners set to account for $4MM annually against the cap, Martin’s charge isn’t out of line. This deal might not look so rosy as Martin ages but at least for season one its among the best signed in the summer of 2015.
  • Lee Stempniak – New Jersey (one year, $850K) – Stempniak is widely considered the steal of free agency last year. He went to camp with the Devils earning a job and a one-year deal worth just $850K. For their investment, New Jersey got 41 points in 63 games and subsequently flipped the veteran forward to Boston at the trade deadline for second (2017) and fourth-round (2016) picks. Yes, he benefited from receiving top-line minutes in New Jersey which may have partially inflated his offensive numbers, but he still did rank in the top-100 in Pts/60 averaging 1.76 at five-on-five. Stempniak was able to parlay his quality performance into a two-year deal with Carolina with a $2.5MM AAV.
  • Justin Williams – Washingtom (two years, $3.25MM AAV) – Williams, a three-time Stanley Cup winner, was imported in large part due to his track record as a proven and clutch playoff performer. Even though the Capitals bowed out in the second-round of the postseason, Williams still showed a penchant for coming up big when it mattered most. In games five and six of their second-round playoff series and with Washington on the verge of being oustered, Williams tallied two goals and three points. He wasn’t too shabby in the regular season either. Not only did he bring his usually stellar possession game – 53.1 CF% – but he also netted 22 goals and 52 points in 82 games. That’s excellent production for the 160th ranked salary cap hit among forwards.
  • Matt Cullen  – Pittsburgh (one year, $800K) – Cullen went the same route as Stempniak, going unsigned through the summer and eventually accepting a PTO with Pittsburgh. After making the roster out of camp, Cullen signed an $800K deal and rewarded the Penguins with terrific production in the team’s bottom-six. Cullen averaged 1.65 Pts/60 at even-strength, finishing with 16 goals and 32 points. Cullen played a key role in the Penguins Cup championship run, averaging the eight-most ice time among forwards and tallying four goals.

Feel free to chime in on the comments section if you feel we’ve omitted someone from this list. It wasn’t intended to necessarily be a full, comprehensive list but we wanted to point out some of 2015’s best signings.

NHL Announces Heritage Classic Schedule, Legends Roster

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Outdoor games are becoming more and more prevelant in today’s NHL, and the league announced today the schedule for the first of such games in the 2016-17 season.  The Heritage Classic will be held in Winnipeg this season, and will see the Jets face off against Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers – who were part of the very first Heritage Classic – on October 23rd, just a few weeks into the season.

Two legends teams will play on the Saturday (Oct 22), with Kevin Lowe and Dale Hawerchuk (both of whom will play in the game) announcing the rosters today. The spectacular Oilers legends squad will feature:

Dave Semenko
Wayne Gretzky (Captain)*
Mark Messier*
Glenn Anderson*
Paul Coffey*

Read more

Coyotes, Tobias Rieder Still At Impasse On New Deal

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Arizona GM John Chayka has already accomplished much this offseason but a GM’s work is never done. The Coyotes still have RFA Tobias Rieder to re-sign and it appears a deal is not close to being completed.

According to Rieder’s representation, agent Darren Ferris, “There’s been no discussions at this point that have made any meaningful change in anyone’s position.”

Rieder is coming off a 14-goal, 37-point performance this past season and is looking to cash in. Last month, Ferris appeared to have established their expectations for a new contract by naming Nazem Kadri as a reasonable comparable. Kadri netted a six-year deal with Toronto with an AAV of $4.5MM a year ago on the heels of an 18-goal, 39-point campaign. Rieder, 23, tallied 37 points a year ago and on the surface that performance would appear to represent a fair talking point on a new contract. However, Kadri had a much longer and more distinguished track record than the two-year veteran Coyotes forward.

First, Kadri was a high first round draft choice, going 7th overall in 2009. Rieder was a 4th round selection two years later. Teams are willing to bet on upside in contract negotiations and 1st round picks generally come with more untapped potential than 4th rounders.

Second, when Kadri agreed to his extension, he already had posted at least 40 points in four separate NHL campaigns, with a career best 50 coming in 2013-14. He also had six years of NHL experience, putting him just two years away from unrestricted free agency per the terms of the current CBA. Rieder, on the other hand, just completed his second NHL campaign, leaving him well away from unrestricted free agency. Kadri had accomplished far more at the NHL level over a far longer period of time than has Rieder to this point and was closer to reaching free agency.

Ferris also pointed out Jamie McGinn’s recent three-year contract with Arizona as a base line for negotiations. McGinn carries an AAV of $3.33MM.

Again, McGinn has been in the league a lot longer than Rieder (veteran of 450 NHL games) and has two, 20-goal campaigns on his resume. He also signed his deal as an UFA with far more leverage thanks to a broad market than Rieder has as an RFA.

As Morgan wrote, perhaps the most logical comparable given Rieder’s age, experience and production level is Vladislav Namestnikov of Tampa Bay. Through 127 career NHL games, Namestnikov has tallied 23 goals and 51 points, numbers reasonably close to Rieder’s. Namestnikov was selected with the 27th selection in the 1st round of the 2011 entry draft and is the same age as Rieder. Tampa secured Namestnikov’s services on a two-year deal worth slightly less than $2MM annually.

Rieder’s camp is marketing the winger using advanced stats and as we know, Chayka is well-versed in analytics. Evidently, Ferris has yet to make a compelling enough case to sway the Arizona GM to their way of thinking on Rieder’s value. Chayka is obviously sticking to his guns as whatever deal he and Rieder agree on sets a standard for future negotiations. Every new contract adds to the pool of possible comparable deals other agents will point to when advocating for their clients and it’s the job of club management to try to keep those salaries as low as possible.

Ferris has suggested the German-born Rieder would entertain offers to play overseas and while that possibility can’t be discounted, particularly if his European contract contained an out-clause, the NHL is the premier league in the world and most players want to play there. It might go down to the wire but I fully expect the Coyotes and Rieder to get a deal done, likely very similar to Namestnikov’s, but perhaps eclipsing $2MM in AAV.

 

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