Poll: How Many Top Free Agents Will Re-Sign Before July 1st?
The season is over for all but four NHL teams, meaning free agents from the other 27 clubs are already focused on July 1st and the start of free agency. How many of those top free agents are still considering staying where they are versus testing the market? How many teams have the means and interest to re-sign them?
In January, PHR published our Mid-Season UFA Power Rankings: 1-10, 11-20, and honorable mentions. Mark Stone, Eric Staal, Jakob Silfverberg and Jimmy Howard – four of our top 25 – have already signed extensions. However, the other top names and their current squads have exactly seven weeks to decide whether or not they will follow suit.
The Columbus Blue Jackets went all in at the trade deadline and it paid off with the franchise’s first ever playoff series win, a shocking sweep of the President’s Trophy-winning Tampa Bay Lightning. Yet, the acquisitions of Ottawa Senators standouts Matt Duchene (No. 5) and Ryan Dzingel (No. 16) was not enough to get the team through round two, nevertheless to a Stanley Cup title. Now, the team faces the possibility that their new additions could walk in free agency alongside stars Artemi Panarin (No. 2) and Sergei Bobrovsky (No. 6), leaving them with major holes to fill. The latter duo have long been expected to test the market, perhaps even as a package deal. Additionally, the conditional 2020 first-round pick tied to re-signing Duchene would seemingly make it less likely that Columbus opts to extend him, especially given their lack of picks in the upcoming draft. None of those three have officially ruled out a return to the Blue Jackets, but it doesn’t look good. On the other hand, Dzingel, an Ohio State University alum, looks like he could be a more natural long-term fit, but it hasn’t prevented rumors that other teams are very interested in signing him.
Another free agent-heavy team that blew through round one of the playoffs only to be knocked off in round two are the New York Islanders. After losing John Tavares last summer, going through the same with top forward Anders Lee (No. 9) would be devastating for the Islanders franchise. Yet, the captain still remains unsigned. It’s fair to assume they will eventually figure it out, but that line of thinking if awfully reminiscent of last year. New York is reportedly pushing hard to retain enter Brock Nelson (No. 11) and winger Jordan Eberle (No. 15) as well, but they could be more inclined to test the market. There’s also the question of resurgent goalie Robin Lehner (No. 23). Will the Islanders lock up the young keeper who was so solid this season? Or will they refuse to pay market value for a player that has benefited from their system while splitting time with Thomas Greiss?
Another team of interest are the San Jose Sharks, who remain alive in the Western Conference Final. Superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson (No. 1) and respected veteran forward Joe Pavelski (No. 7) are both heading for free agency and the Sharks may be hard-pressed to sign both. There’s also deadline addition Gustav Nyquist (No. 14) to consider re-signing, as he has had a strong postseason with the Sharks. The Carolina Hurricanes are also one of four teams still playing and are definitely happy they held on to forward Micheal Ferland (No. 18). Ferland is reportedly expected to test the market, but after a deep postseason run he may be more open to extending his stay with the Hurricanes.
It was a difficult end to the year for the Winnipeg Jets, who were one-and-done this year, falling to the St. Louis Blues in the first round. Between rental center Kevin Hayes (No. 8) and big defenseman Tyler Myers (No. 10), the Jets have a pair of coveted free agents on the roster who they would surely like to keep, but that is the least of their worries as they face a daunting impending cap crunch. It could make bringing back even one of the two nearly impossible. The same goes for defenseman Jake Gardiner (No. 12) and the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs will have a hard enough time keeping their roster together and re-signing their current restricted free agent, nevertheless managing to re-sign Gardiner.
Generally, playoff rentals proceed to hit the free agent market rather than re-up with their new teams. In addition to Duchene, Dzingel, Hayes, and Nyquist, Nashville’s Wayne Simmonds (No. 13), Dallas’ Mats Zuccarello (No. 21), and Colorado’s Derick Brassard (No. 24) could very well be headed to yet another destination. Simmonds and Brassard were disappointments in their short stays, but Zuccarello proved to be a nice fit with the Stars. However, the team would lose a first-round pick rather than a second-round pick to the New York Rangers if they were to re-sign the veteran forward. That may not be enough to stop them from extending him, though.
If there was any doubt that the Buffalo Sabres couldn’t re-sign Jeff Skinner (No. 4), one would think he would have been dealt at the trade deadline. However, he remains suspiciously unsigned and would be a massive addition to the free agent market if he does make it to July. Skinner has been a great match with Jack Eichel and certainly looks like a long-term fit in Buffalo, but the team’s second-half struggles could have Skinner re-thinking a long-term stay.
Vancouver’s Alexander Edler (No. 22) stated that his preference was not to be dealt at this year’s trade deadline and to instead re-sign with the Canucks. The two sides have been working toward an extension, but until pen meets paper he is still an impending free agent that will attract considerable attention. Similarly, Semyon Varlamov (No. 17) has expressed an interest in remaining with the Colorado Avalanche, but it’s unclear if the feeling is mutual. Varlamov would have to take a major pay cut to stay on as backup and may rather test a goalie market that has already lost Howard and could lose Lehner before free agency opens.
Compared to recent years, this impending free agent class does look to have fewer locks for extensions among top players. Any of these names could hit the market, although odds are they won’t all choose to do so. Regardless, this could be a healthy market come July 1st. Just how deep could it be? That’s for you to guess. How many of these top free agents will sign extensions?
How Many Top Free Agents Will Re-Sign?
-
4-6 39% (331)
-
1-3 34% (288)
-
7-9 15% (131)
-
10+ 7% (59)
-
None 5% (40)
Total votes: 849
[Mobile users click here to vote]
Lawrence Pilut Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
The Buffalo Sabres have a lot to look forward to in young defenseman Lawrence Pilut, but will have to wait a little bit longer to see his full potential. The team announced today that Pilut has undergone shoulder surgery and will be out for five to six months. That means Pilut will miss training camp and likely the start of the 2019-20 regular season.
Pilut, 23, showed extremely well in his first season in North America, splitting time between the Sabres and Rochester Americans of the AHL. During his time in the minor leagues the undrafted Swedish defenseman absolutely dominated the competition, recording 26 points in 30 games while finishing a +22 on one of the league’s best squads. His transition to the NHL didn’t result in as many points—just six in 33 games—but he showed that he was more than capable of performing at the top level.
Signed out of the SHL in 2018 but has just one year remaining on his entry-level contract. That year could very well be cut short, but there’s good reason to believe he will join the Sabres full-time when his recovery is over. Buffalo is also going to be without Zach Bogosian for the start of the season thanks to another hip surgery, leaving their current group shorthanded. Still, there may be changes coming for the Sabres blue line which simply hasn’t been good enough in recent years. While Rasmus Dahlin is obviously a star in the making, his supporting cast needs an upgrade if the team is really expecting to make the playoffs and contend for the Stanley Cup next season.
Coaching Updates: Buffalo, Edmonton, Toronto
As usual, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet has produced another edition of “31 Thoughts” that is chock full of insider information. With the postseason ongoing and free agency yet to begin (officially anyway), a considerable focus this week is on head coaching vacancies. And the coaching news is coming in fast. Less than 24 hours after initially naming Ralph Krueger as a candidate for the vacancy with the Buffalo Sabres, Friedman writes that he is now considered the favorite. The former Edmonton Oilers head coach, and most recently soccer executive, has ties to GM Jason Botterill and has the experience that the Sabres reportedly seek. Friedman also believes that Pittsburgh Penguins assistant Jacques Martin is out of the running for the Buffalo job, which may have moved Krueger up the board. He also adds that Tampa Bay Lightning assistant Todd Richards is no longer being considered.
- Long-time NHL head coach Dave Tippett is still a candidate in Buffalo, but Friedman believes that he has become the favorite in Edmonton and is more likely to take over as the Oilers’ head coach. Tippett has been working with the Seattle expansion team ownership group of late, but has been itching to get back to coaching. In 14 years of coaching, Tippett finished above .500 11 times and made the playoffs eight times. That alone is a major step up for Edmonton, who have done neither of those things in nine of the past ten years. Joining Tippett in Edmonton as an assistant could be recent Florida Panthers head coach Bob Boughner, Friedman adds. By many accounts Boughner was fired not due to his own performance, but due to Joel Quenneville‘s availability, so he would be a major addition as well.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs may not need to worry about losing highly-touted AHL head coach Sheldon Keefe. Keefe’s name has been relatively quiet on the coaching market thus far, but that could be due to the fact that Friedman believes he is unwilling to leave Toronto unless there is a better chance for him to succeed. Keefe could be in line to replace Mike Babcock as Leafs head coach when his contract ends (or sooner) and step into a talented Toronto lineup. However, assistant D.J. Smith remains a candidate in Ottawa and fellow assistant Jim Hiller has been granted permission to interview elsewhere, Friedman reports. Friedman does not expect Hiller to be back in Toronto next season and mentions the Nashville Predators as a potential landing spot. Hiller’s power play expertise could certainly help a Predator’s man advantage that was the worst in the NHL this season. The potential loss of both Smith and Hiller would hurt for the Maple Leafs and could force them to move Keefe to the NHL as an assistant.
- Friedman has no news about the vacancies in Ottawa and Anaheim. As it stands now, the Senators are considering Smith, Martin, Dallas Stars assistant Rick Bowness, Providence College’s Nate Leaman, and internal candidates Troy Mann and Marc Crawford. As for the Ducks, it appears to be Dallas Eakins, whose AHL San Diego Gulls are still alive in the Calder Cup playoffs, or bust.
Sabres Asking Coaching Candidates How They Can Help Rasmus Ristolainen Improve
While there has been a lot of trade speculation around Rasmus Ristolainen over the past few months, the Sabres have been asking prospective coaching candidates about how they can help the blueliner improve, notes Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News. Consistency has been a challenge for the 24-year-old, especially in his own end but he can make a considerable impact when he’s on his game. Buffalo has shaken up its back end over the past year with the additions of Rasmus Dahlin and Brandon Montour which has led some to speculate that Ristolainen could be in play. However, the solution could very well wind up being to hold onto him and hope that a slightly lesser role as their other young players develop will be best for him over the long haul. Nonetheless, with a $5.4MM AAV for three more years, expect GM Jason Botterill to be fielding a lot of interest in him over the coming weeks.
Buffalo Sabres Add Ralph Krueger To Head Coaching List
With several coaching vacancies still out there, the Buffalo Sabres have added a new name to their coaching candidates list as the team has reached out to former Edmonton Oilers head coach Ralph Krueger, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman late Saturday on Hockey Night in Canada.
Krueger was with the Oilers in 2010 as an associate coach in 2010 and was promoted to head coach for the 2012-13 strike-shortened season, but was let go after one season after leading the team to a 19-22-7 record. He left hockey in 2014 when he turned his attention to association football and became director of Southampton FC, having left in April of this year, although there were rumors earlier that Krueger was interested in a front-office role in the NHL. However, it looks like Buffalo is considering him for the head coaching role instead. Krueger is well known for coaching a surprising Team Europe to a gold medal game at World Cup of Hockey in 2016. He hasn’t coached in the NHL since getting fired in 2013.
While Friedman added that Krueger is just a candidate, and not necessarily a front-runner, he’s in the mix. The 59-year-old is considered to be a defensive-minded coach, he also has been known to have some good offensive teams over the years. After struggling under rookie head coach Phil Housley the past two years, the Sabres are likely looking at a veteran coach that can control the locker room and get the team’s young talents to develop properly. The two other key names that have been associated with Buffalo’s coaching search are also veteran coaches in Dave Tippett and Jacques Martin, although the team is not done in its search. The team was also linked to Swedish coach Rickard Gronberg, but he signed a two-year deal with the ZSC Lions of the Swiss NLA after it was rumored that the Sabres’ were not interested in adding a first-year NHL coach.
Atlantic Notes: Toronto’s Penalty Kill, Canadiens, Ristolainen, Acciari
Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas took the blame for many things that went wrong this year at his season-ending press conference, the most interesting of which is the team’s struggle with the penalty kill, which stopped the Boston Bruins’ power play just nine out of 16 times during the playoffs. Dubas admitted he should have had more depth. While the coaching staff should be blamed as well, Sportsnet’s Luke Fox suggests ways to fix that penalty kill for next season.
The top suggestion is that the team must use real centers to take faceoffs during the penalty kill as winger Zach Hyman took the most faceoffs last season, going 69-72, while star John Tavares took just 29 faceoffs on the penalty kill and was the 12th-most used player on the penalty kill. The team must also add some depth to this team that could lose quite a few key penalty killers whether it’s Connor Brown, who is considered trade bait; Ron Hainsey, who will be an unrestricted free agent; or Travis Dermott, who will miss six months after shoulder surgery, the team must add players who can help their penalty kill.
- One Atlantic Division challenger to the Maple Leafs could be in the running for one of their unrestricted free agents, as The Athletic’s Olivier Bouchard (subscription required) believes that the Montreal Canadiens should go after unrestricted free agent Jake Gardiner. The scribe points out that when the dust clears, Montreal general manager Marc Bergevin should have close to $11MM at his disposal and with defense being one of the team’s biggest need, Gardiner might be the perfect addition as the blueliner should be able to force defenseman Brett Kulak to a bottom-pairing role.
- Lance Lysowski of the Buffalo News writes that while the Buffalo Sabres have considered the possibility of trading defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen for a top-six forward, he believes that would be a mistake, claiming that rather than hiding his defensive weaknesses, the team keeps placing him in a role that doesn’t suit him, which is attempting to shutdown the opposing team’s players. Ristolainen, who finished the season with a NHL-worst rating of minus-41, has often been paired with defensive deficient players like Marco Scandella and Jake McCabe, while he also struggled inexplicably when paired with Rasmus Dahlin. Regardless, a new coach that can utilize Ristolainen properly might get the most out of him rather than the Sabres watch him flourish with another team.
- Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports writes that Boston Bruins forward Noel Acciari has returned to practice and while he’s not expected to play in Game 2 on Sunday against the Carolina Huricanes, he could be ready for Game 3 in Carolina. Acciari, practiced in a non-contact jersey Saturday for the first time after missing the last three playoff games with an upper-body injury. “[Acciari] won’t play tomorrow,” said Bruins head coach Bruce Cassidy. “He’s doing well. He should be a full practice [participant] for Monday. We’ll see what we’re doing [as a team] that day, but he’ll be ready whatever the case may be. Hopefully, that allows him to play Tuesday and then we’ll make our decision then.”
Latest On Buffalo Sabres Coaching Search
The Buffalo Sabres won’t be hiring a rookie head coach like Rickard Gronborg this year, meaning the list of available names has been dramatically shortened. One name that had still been connected to them was Todd Richards, an assistant under Jon Cooper in Tampa Bay the last three seasons. Richards has experience as a head coach with both the Minnesota Wild and Columbus Blue Jackets, but it now appears as though he won’t be in the running either. John Shannon of Sportsnet tweets that Richards will not interview for the job in Buffalo, and that Jacques Martin and Dave Tippett remain the front runners.
Richards was the first name that John Vogl of The Athletic (subscription required) listed in his recent breakdown of the candidates, but Tippett and Martin followed quickly afterwards. Both coaches have been out of the head coaching role for a few years, with Tippett last leading the Arizona Coyotes in 2016-17 and Martin fired from the Montreal Canadiens in 2011-12. That doesn’t mean they’ve been away from the game though, as Tippett has been working with the Seattle expansion franchise as a senior adviser, while Martin was on the Pittsburgh Penguins bench as an assistant the last several years.
Buffalo GM Jason Botterill tried the rookie route with his first coaching hire, bringing in legendary Sabres defenseman Phil Housley to run the bench. Housley had experienced success as an assistant with the Nashville Predators, but things didn’t go well for him in Buffalo. The team went 58-84-22 during his two seasons, simply not good enough when they have a star forward in Jack Eichel earning $10MM per season. It’s not time for a rebuild for the Sabres, which is likely why an experienced hand is what Botterill is after this time around.
It is important to note that Botterill is currently in Slovakia with Team Canada for the IIHF World Championship, a tournament that will end on May 26th.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen Named OHL Most Outstanding Player
The Buffalo Sabres may not have had the best season, but one of their prospects certainly did. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has won the Red Tilson Trophy as the OHL’s Most Outstanding Player, just the sixth goaltender to do so in the history of the league. Toronto Marlies forward Justin Brazeau and Dallas Stars prospect Jason Robertson came in second and third respectively.
Luukkonen, 20, also has the honor of being the first European import to ever win the award, which has been given out since 1945 (then by the OHA). The trophy is a prestigious honor, with plenty of past recipients going on to long prosperous NHL careers. Jordan Kyrou, Alex DeBrincat, Mitch Marner, Connor McDavid, Connor Brown and Vincent Trocheck are the past six winners, with other names like Ryan Ellis, John Tavares, Eric Lindros and Doug Gilmour all having taken a turn.
The Finnish goaltender was selected 54th overall by the Sabres in 2017, and was fantastic for the Sudbury Wolves this season. With a 38-11-2 record and .920 save percentage, he carried the Wolves all season. Unfortunately it wasn’t enough for them to advance deep into the OHL playoffs, but Luukkonen did manage to get into one game with the Rochester Americans—in which he stopped 32 out of 34 shots for the win—before having hip surgery in late April.
Unfortunately, that surgery is expected to keep Luukkonen out for up to six months and could put the start of his first professional season in jeopardy. The young goaltender is set to join the Americans in the AHL, but will obviously have to prove his health before getting back on the ice.
Snapshots: Draft Rankings, Kovalchuk, NWHL
The 2019 NHL Entry Draft is just over a month away, but the next few weeks could still determine the top few selections. Kaapo Kakko and Jack Hughes are set to battle head to head at the upcoming IIHF World Championship while playing with other NHL stars and their individual performances could determine the final outcome of June’s draft. It’s unsurprising then that Hughes and Kakko continue to lead Sam Cosentino of Sportsnet’s draft rankings, but it’s not like they’re the only ones still playing important hockey.
Bowen Byram, ranked third on Cosentino’s list, is currently leading the WHL playoffs with 23 points in 18 games and has a chance to even the championship series against Prince Albert tonight. Byram recorded 71 points in 67 games this season, and is the top defenseman available in this year’s draft. His placement at third is an interesting one though, as the Chicago Blackhawks who own the selection have drafted defensemen with their first two picks in each of the past two years—Adam Boqvist and Nicolas Beaudin in 2018, and Henri Jokiharju and Ian Mitchell in 2017. If the Blackhawks decide not to pick another blue liner they’ll have a few names to choose from, as prospects 4-10 on the list all skate up front.
- Speaking with reporters including Igor Eronko of Sport-Express while working with the Russian national team, Ilya Kovalchuk explained that he is still motivated to play for the Los Angeles Kings and has reached out to some former players who spent time under head coach Todd McLellan. Kovalchuk clearly did not find the good graces of Willie Desjardins last season and ended the year with just 34 points while seeing fewer than 16 minutes of ice time in nearly half of his 64 games. The 36-year old winger has two years remaining on his $18.75MM deal signed last summer.
- The NWHL is desperately trying to stay afloat after more than 200 of the best women hockey players in the world announced a boycott last week, but they’ll have to do it without the help of Kim Pegula, co-owner of the Buffalo Sabres. The Buffalo Beauts were the only team in the NWHL that shared ownership with an NHL franchise, but will now be operated by the league after Pegula announced that the relationship will be severed. As Hailey Salvian and Katie Strang of The Athletic (subscription required) write, the Beauts were the “gold standard” of the NWHL, mostly because of their relationship with the Sabres and access to resources other teams did not have.
Buffalo Sabres Sign Arttu Ruotsalainen
May 8: The Sabres have made it official, announcing a three-year entry-level deal for Ruotsalainen.
May 5: The Buffalo Sabres look to be close to bringing in some young talent as The Athletic’s John Vogl reports that a Finnish source (Twitter link) has stated that the Sabres have come to a verbal agreement to sign Finnish prospect Arttu Ruotsalainen. The entry-level deal would be signed after the World Championships.
Vogl wrote a few days ago that one thing on Buffalo’s to-do list would be to sign Ruotsalainen as both sides had interest in getting a deal done. The 5-foot-8, 181-pound forward would be expected to start the season with the AHL’s Rochester Americans, but could be an interesting prospect as he is still just 21 years old. He is expected to play for Finland in the World Championships and then sign his contract, very similar to the Sabres’ signing two seasons ago of defenseman Victor Antipin.
Undrafted because of his size, Ruotsalainen had a breakout year with Ilves where he tallied 21 goals and 42 points in his fourth season in the Liiga, one year after posting nine goals and 20 points in 2017-18. He kept those numbers up during the playoffs, posting seven points in seven games. Despite playing center with Ilves, it is believed that the Sabres would be more likely to move him to the wing to account for his lack of size. Ruotsalainen coincidentally is teammates with the Sabres’ defensive prospect Oskari Laaksonen, who the team hopes to bring over in the next couple of years as well.