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New York Rangers Obtain Signing Rights To Barclay Goodrow

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Forward Barclay Goodrow is slated for unrestricted free agency on July 28 and in the meantime very well might be left exposed in the NHL Expansion Draft, leaving him free to negotiate with the Seattle Kraken. However, should he not sign with Seattle, Goodrow’s exclusive negotiating rights now belong to the New York Rangers. The team took the minor risk of getting a head start on contract talks with the two-way winger by sending a 2022 seventh-round pick to the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for his expiring contract. That risk will be well worth it if Goodrow signs with New York, as he was expected to draw considerable interest on the open market. The Lightning were not able to extend Goodrow due to salary cap concerns, so they will happily settle for an extra draft pick.

While Goodrow was known as a good two-way forward during his time in San Jose, he blossomed over the past two seasons in Tampa. His offense has improved as has his physicality, creating a dangerous bottom-six combination. A hard-nosed player who excels at even strength and on the penalty kill, Goodrow could assist the Rangers in a number of ways. Namely, new GM Chris Drury wanted to make the team more difficult to play against and adding Goodrow would accomplish that.

However, New York needs to be careful not to negotiate against themselves in this situation. While there has already been rampant speculation that Goodrow could command a long-term contract or considerable salary this off-season, that is with the presumption that he reaches the open market. The Rangers have too many promising young players that will need expensive extensions down the road, not to mention a major hole at top-six center, to get roped into overpaying for a bottom-six forward. Their only competition for Goodrow right now is the Seattle Kraken, otherwise they would be wise to negotiate as if they have exclusive rights and try to keep Goodrow’s value from being artificially inflated before free agency begins.

Ryan Ellis, Phillippe Myers, Nolan Patrick, Cody Glass Swapped In Three-Team Trade

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Talk about going out with a bang. Just before the NHL entered a transaction freeze that lasts through Wednesday’s Expansion Draft, the Nashville Predators, Philadelphia Flyers, and Vegas Golden Knights completed a trade with a slew of big names. Nashville sent career Predator Ryan Ellis to Philadelphia in exchange for fellow defenseman Philippe Myers and center Nolan Patrick, the No. 2 overall pick in 2017. The Predators then flipped Patrick to Vegas for another young center, Cody Glass, the No. 6 overall pick in 2017. Per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, this is a purely player-for-player trade with no picks or prospects changing hands.

At first glance, the biggest winner in this trade has to be the Flyers. While Nashville was exploring trading one of five defensemen that they would have liked to protect from expansion, Ellis was not considered to be a likely trade candidate. The 30-year-old right-hander has been an elite defenseman for the better part of the last decade with the Predators, playing big minutes and producing impressive point totals all while playing a sound defensive game. Admittedly, Ellis does carry some concerns, including an offensive drop-off this season, an injury history, and a contract with six years and $37.5MM remaining. However, at least in the short-term, he is an outstanding addition to the Flyers’ defense corps. Their core objective this off-season was to find a mate for Ivan Provorov on the top pair and that is now complete.

It is hard to take issue with the cost paid by the Flyers as well. Ellis, though much older and a very different style of player, is a tremendous upgrade to Myers on the Philly blue line. As a one-for-one swap, there is no question that Ellis is the better player right now and Myers will likely never reach that caliber of play either. As for Patrick, the young forward needed a change of scenery after his first few years as a pro player have been marked by injury and inconsistency. There was some discussion that Philadelphia could even leave Patrick exposed, given their vast number of valuable, expansion eligible forwards. By moving Patrick in this deal, the Flyers give up the upside of the former top pick, but gain protection flexibility in exchange. Leading scorer James van Riemsdyk or long-time standout Jakub Voracek, both previously expected to be exposed to the Seattle Kraken, could now step into Patrick’s vacancy.

As for Nashville, the deal solves some problems but all of them. The Predators have been looking to clear salary cap space this summer to improve their roster and do just that by getting out from under Ellis’ expensive long-term contract. However, by bringing in Myers they are still left with five defensemen that they would like to protect – Myers, Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm, Dante Fabbro, and Alexandre Carrier – but only eight total skaters they can protect. Fortunately, the forward portion of their protection scheme is made easier by flipping Patrick for Glass, who is exempt from the Expansion Draft. Glass was never given consistent opportunity in Vegas possesses ample ability and could find success for Nashville right away.

Vegas was clearly unhappy with Glass’ development, leading to his benching in the postseason and trade rumors early this off-season. However, the team has been too quick to trade away prospects and picks in their early seasons of existence and losing Glass would have hurt their pipeline if he had been dealt in a deal for yet another veteran. Instead, they replace him with Patrick, who is still just 22 and has three seasons of NHL experience under his belt. Perhaps most importantly, Patrick has experience with Knights GM Kelly McCrimmon, the former GM of the WHL’s Brandon Wheat Kings when Patrick was a superstar for the team. If anyone can help Patrick get back on track and reach his potential, it could be McCrimmon. In regards to the Expansion Draft, Vegas is exempt and taking advantage of that special privilege with what could turn out to be a major move down the road.

This is a landscape-shifting move for the Seattle Kraken, who now could see players for both Philadelphia and Nashville that they expected to be exposed now protected. It is believed that the Predators were seeking a side deal with Seattle and there is no word as to whether one has been completed or not, though Nashville appears to have some sort of trick up their sleeve. As for Philly, the Kraken probably believed that they could see at least two of Patrick, van Riemsdyk, and Voracek exposed, but now will not. GM Ron Francis and company have their work cut out for them in reacting to a wild pre-roster freeze flurry.

Toronto Maple Leafs Acquire Jared McCann

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The Toronto Maple Leafs were not expected to be a pre-Expansion Draft buyer given what appeared to be some difficult protection list decisions. However, they have made quite a splash with a deal filed just before the roster freeze set in. As first reported by Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, Toronto has acquired Jared McCann from the Pittsburgh Penguins, who had long been expected to protect McCann before rumors in recent days suggested otherwise. In exchange, the Penguins receive just a 2023 seventh-round pick and forward prospect Filip Hallander, who the team initially drafted and then dealt to the Maple Leafs last summer in the Kasperi Kapanen trade.

This is a savvy pickup by the Maple Leafs, adding an affordable forward coming off of a career year. McCann, who has always possessed great ability but has struggled with inconsistency, put it all together for Pittsburgh this season with 14 goals and 32 points in 43 games – an 82-game pace of 27 goals and 61 points. If he can replicate those number joining another skilled forward group in Toronto, McCann will be a beloved bargain at $2.94MM. With the ability to play center or wing and solid defensive tendencies, McCann can be utilized throughout the Maple Leafs’ lineup.

One concern for McCann is his lack of playoff scoring in three trips to the postseason. That should be especially alarming for a Toronto team that struggles under playoff pressure as it is. However, it never hurts to add a talented player and hope that his postseason luck turns. Eventually, something has to give for Toronto, right?

In Pittsburgh, this trade has to sting. The rumors swirling around the team suggest that they could be making some unorthodox expansion protection choices and this trade suggests that McCann was not going to be protected, despite a very strong season and a comfortable fit with the team. It also seems like GM Ron Hextall could have gotten more for McCann than a throwaway pick and a recycled prospect. Hallander, a 2018 second-round pick, is not a bad investment by any means, especially after a career year in Sweden. However, he also was deemed expendable by the last Penguins administration and now is back and still not likely to be considered a top-three forward prospect for the team. Yes, Pittsburgh needed to clear salary this off-season, but McCann’s affordable contract seems like the least of their worries and the return does not adequately justify the move.

Vancouver Canucks Trade For Jason Dickinson

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Before the Expansion Draft roster freeze went into effect at 2:00pm CT, it was confirmed that both the Vancouver Canucks and Dallas Stars had a trade waiting in the queue at NHL Central Registry. As it turns out, the deal was with each other. As first reported by Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the Canucks have acquired center Jason Dickinson from the Stars. The return is a third-round pick in this year’s NHL Draft. Dickinson had been on the fringe of expansion protection consideration for Dallas and the team determined that he was not worth protecting, but was not worth the risk of losing for free either. Vancouver is now of course expected to protect Dickinson from the Seattle Kraken.

Dickinson’s value lies in his versatility, both positionally and on special teams. While it is hard to argue against him not being one of Dallas’ top seven forward to be protected from expansion, he was undoubtedly a top-nine forward for the team. Dickinson has been nothing if not consistent in his scoring over the past three seasons as well; with the opportunity to finally play 82 games this season, one can safely predict at least ten goals and 25 points out of Dickinson this season. Vancouver is a club that cherishes two-way ability and players who can move up and down the lineup. They could use more dependability in their scoring as well. Dickinson unequivocally fits that description and should mesh well with the team. Given the history of GM Jim Benning, it would not be a surprise to see the restricted free agent center sign a multi-year extension this summer before ever suiting up for the team.

The minute that Ben Bishop waived his No-Movement Clause for the Expansion Draft, allowing Dallas to protect veteran goaltender Anton Khudobin instead, Dickinson immediately became the odds-on favorite to be selected by the Kraken if left exposed. The Stars will miss the useful forward moving forward, but at least were able to recoup a small return rather than lose him for nothing. Dallas will likely look to replace Dickinson with a similar versatile, high-floor, bottom-six forward this summer.

San Jose Sharks Acquire Adin Hill

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The San Jose Sharks were believed to be closing in on a goaltender ahead of the Expansion Draft roster freeze and now a deal is done. The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz reports that the Sharks have acquired goaltender Adin Hill from their now-former division rival Arizona Coyotes. San Jose will send young goalie Josef Korenar back to Arizona to satisfy exposure requirements for the Coyotes. The ’Yotes will also receive a 2022 second-round pick, while sending their own 2022 seventh-round pick to the Sharks alongside Hill, adds Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.

This trade was – obviously – all about the Expansion Draft. The Sharks did not have a goaltender that they felt was worthy of protection from the Seattle Kraken and the Coyotes had two. Arizona had reportedly been listening to offers for both starter Darcy Kuemper and backup Hill, expecting that Seattle would select Hill if he could not be protected. They end up losing the promising young netminder regardless, but get something back from San Jose – a goalie prospect and a high-value draft pick. Meanwhile, the Sharks will expose starter Martin Jones, who has failed to live up to his lofty contract, in favor of Hill. Jones is very unlikely to be selected, although such a decision would be well received by the Sharks anyhow. Kuemper and Hill had been the Coyotes’ only goaltenders eligible for the Expansion Draft, necessitating the return of Korenar to fill the exposure quota of one goaltender under contract or team control.

Hill will be given every opportunity to take the starting job from Jones this season. The 25-year-old’s role in the desert has been increasing in each of the past three years, capped off with a career-high 19 appearances and 17 starts in 2020-21. Hill is a big, positional goaltender who has translated his ability well from the AHL to the NHL. Over the past two seasons, Hill has recorded a .915 save percentage and 2.70 GAA in 32 games. Playing behind a deeper and more talented defense corps in San Jose, those numbers have a chance to improve, which would certainly be an upgrade to Jones’ recent efforts.

With that said, given the desperate position of the Coyotes in this situation, it is fair to wonder if San Jose overpaid. What will very likely be an early second-round pick next year alongside a promising rookie keeper in Korenar is a steep price. Arizona risked losing Hill for nothing and instead added quality building blocks.

Roster Freeze Notes: Sharks, Flames, Dunn

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With NHL Expansion Draft protection lists due at 4:00pm CT today, the league has enacted a freeze in all roster transactions that goes into effect in less than an hour from now at 2:00pm CT and lasts through Thursday morning after the Expansion Draft is complete. NHL teams are not taking this deadline lightly; numerous reports suggest that the trade market is no less than a complete frenzy right now as teams look to use their expansion flexibility (or lack thereof) to make deals before the clock runs out. Bally Sports’ Andy Strickland spoke with an agent who said he has never seen so many players available for trade from so many teams.

One team that seems poised to make a move are the San Jose Sharks. The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz reports that the Sharks are attempting to add a goalie before the deadline. San Jose is likely to expose expensive, underperforming starter Martin Jones in the Expansion Draft and seemingly would be open to exposing young Josef Korenar as well if they can add another legitimate NHL goaltender worth protecting. Not many teams across the league have the luxury of adding a goalie before the expansion process begins, so the Sharks are trying to take advantage of a goalie market with far more sellers than buyers.

  • The Sharks are certainly not alone in pushing for a last-minute deal. The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reports that among the most active teams are the Winnipeg Jets, who are shopping Mason Appleton, the Calgary Flames, and the Chicago Blackhawks. The Blackhawks appear to be specifically targeting a landing spot for restricted free agent defenseman Nikita Zadorov, Garrioch notes. There has been some speculation that Chicago was not enthused about Zadorov’s asking price or potential arbitration award, but don’t necessarily want to expose him to Seattle and lose him for nothing in return. The Flames are far less single-minded; Garrioch calls the roster “unsettled” and believes that many players could be up for grabs.
  • St. Louis Blues defenseman Vince Dunn is out there in current trade discussions as well, reports Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic.  The 24-year-old has been in trade speculation for the last couple of years now but expansion could be the pressure point to get something completed.  Many expect St. Louis to use the standard protection scheme which allows for seven forwards and three defensemen.  The three blueliners expected to be protected in that scenario are veterans Colton Parayko, Torey Krug, and Justin Faulk which would leave Dunn unprotected and seemingly a prime target for the Kraken.  They could go to eight skaters to protect Dunn but would then leave three more forwards available to Seattle.  Accordingly, if the Blues want to get an asset for Dunn, today may be the last chance that can happen.

Analyzing 2021 NHL Draft Capital

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Draft picks are not created equal, that much is certain. While there is randomness and unpredictability inherent in any professional sports draft, higher picks still have a higher likelihood of success. That decline in value is not linear, either, as early picks hold much greater weight. However, it is difficult to judge just how valuable one selection may be compared to another or, in the process of making a trade, several. Many sources have tried to quantify the value of draft picks based on historical data. The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn produced one of the more recent models ahead of last year’s NHL Entry Draft. Using an aggregate statistic known as Game Score Value Added, or GSVA, Luszczyszyn ranked all draft picks on how the average selection pans out in the NHL. Not only was the drop-off not linear, it showed an incredibly steep decline that all but flatlined after the third round. Using that model, it is clear that quality is greater than quantity when it comes to the NHL Draft, though a quantity of quality picks is the ultimate prize

How does that play out this year? Here is a look at each team’s draft capital in the upcoming draft by total GSVA to provide, as well as an idea of how they might be able to use it to move up and down the draft board, adding high value picks or adding additional picks, based on number of selections, specific draft slots, and prospect depth. Though draft pick trades are not nearly as common in the NHL as in some other major North American sports, in a deep and unpredictable draft later this month there could be a shift in the status quo.

1. Buffalo Sabres
No. of Picks: 10
Total GSVA: 24.9
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up Into First Round

2. Detroit Red Wings
No. of Picks: 12
Total GSVA: 19.5
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up In First Round

3. Seattle Kraken
No. of Picks: 7
Total GSVA: 16.9
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In First Round

4. Columbus Blue Jackets
No. of Picks: 9
Total GSVA: 16.7
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up In First Round

5. New Jersey Devils
No. of Picks: 8
Total GSVA: 15.3
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up In First Round

6. Anaheim Ducks
No. of Picks: 7
Total GSVA: 14.9
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In Second Round

7. Ottawa Senators
No. of Picks: 6
Total GSVA: 11.4
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up Into First Round

8. Minnesota Wild
No. of Picks: 9
Total GSVA: 11
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up In First Round

9. Los Angeles Kings
No. of Picks: 7
Total GSVA: 10.7
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up Into Second Round

10. Vancouver Canucks
No of Picks: 8
Total GSVA: 10.2
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In Second Round
Read more

Expansion Primer: Boston Bruins

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Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

In the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, the Boston Bruins were able to protect all of their key forwards but had to make a difficult choice of who to protect on defense other than Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug. The third spot came down to physical veteran Kevan Miller and skilled youngster Colin Miller. It was a lose-lose, as whoever they did not protect was expected to be selected by the Vegas Golden Knights. The Bruins opted to stay loyal to the veteran and watched a promising young blue liner find success elsewhere.

This time around, the Bruins are again able to protect their most valuable assets, with a little luck from some timely expiring contracts, and this time around don’t have any hard choices to make on defense. Yet, the team will again have to expose talented young defensemen and very likely will suffer another tough loss.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Patrice Bergeron (NMC), Charlie Coyle (NMC), Brad Marchand (NMC), Peter Cehlarik, Jake DeBrusk, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, Trent Frederic, Cameron Hughes, Ondrej Kase, Joona Koppanen, Karson Kuhlman, Curtis Lazar, David Pastrnak, Nick Ritchie, Zach Senyshyn, Craig Smith, Chris Wagner

Defense:
|Linus Arnesson, Brandon Carlo, Connor Clifton, Matt Grzelcyk, Jeremy Lauzon, Charlie McAvoy, John Moore, Jakub Zboril

Goalies:
Callum Booth, Daniel Vladar

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

G Jaroslav Halak, F Taylor Hall, F David Krejci, F Sean Kuraly, D Kevan Miller, G Tuukka Rask, D Mike Reilly

Notable Exemptions

F John Beecher, G Jeremy Swayman, F Jack Studnicka, D Urho Vaakanainen

Key Decisions

The Bruins are guaranteed to lose a good player to the Seattle Kraken, but it could be much worse. Career Bruins Krejci and Rask, who are still playing at an elite level, are currently unrestricted free agents and have essentially made it known that they will play only in Boston or else retire. The duo would have no choice if under contract and exposed in the Expansion Draft, but their long-term contracts expired just in time. Trade Deadline addition Hall, who proved to be a terrific fit, is also a UFA and has expressed interest in re-signing in Boston. Seattle is unlikely to select the former MVP if his mind is set on staying with the Bruins. Even valuable depth pieces who are not necessarily locks to re-sign with Boston but have at least discussed the possibility, such as Kuraly, Miller, and Reilly, are currently free agents and have free will over their next move whether selected by the Kraken or not. The Bruins essentially have lucked into upwards of six additional protection slots by way of timely free agency for players who would like to return to Boston.

With the actual protection slots that the team does have, many of the decisions have been made for them. No-Movement Clauses for icons Bergeron and Marchand, as well as local product Coyle, will keep the trio protected. Bergeron and Marchand would have been obvious protections anyway and, even after a down year, the versatile, two-way Coyle likely would have been as well, in hopes that he returns to form following much-needed knee repairs this off-season. In net, by default the team will keep promising young goaltender Vladar as starter Rask and backup Halak are free agents, future starter Swayman is exempt, and minor leaguer Booth was seemingly signed for the exact purpose of meeting the exposure requirements.

Elsewhere on the roster there are some automatic protections as well. Young stars McAvoy and Pastrnak are no-brainers for protection, especially after both were nearly NHL All-Star selections this year. Carlo, another standout young defenseman, will also surely be protected, as will veteran winger Smith who the team just signed to a bargain, multi-year deal last off-season.

On defense, there is one spot open and while there may have been some debate as to who to protect before this season, Grzelcyk quickly ended that conversation. The 27-year-old puck-mover had a career year across the board as he stepped into the void left by Krug’s free agency departure and proved himself invaluable to the Bruins. Had he failed to do so, he may not have been the easy choice with other younger defenders in the mix.

While Boston is surely happy that they can protect the only defensemen under contract who have proven themselves as top-four options, and also have some potential UFA returners and exempt prospects who could play key roles next season, the team is still set up to possibly take a big loss on the blue line in the draft. Exposing all three of Lauzon, Zboril, and Clifton gives Seattle multiple young options to consider stealing from the Bruins. Lauzon would be the biggest hit, definitely on defense but possibly on the whole roster. The 24-year-old is a reliable defensive presence who is dominant on the penalty kill, is physical, and is not a liability moving the puck or contributing in the offensive zone. He may not have enormous upside, but could be an NHL starter for many years to come. Zboril, also 24, finished seventh in voting for the NHL’s All-Rookie team this year and was one of the AHL’s top defensemen last year. While he did not do as much with his opportunity this season compared to Lauzon, Zboril is a balanced defenseman with arguably more upside that Lauzon who could take a major step forward once he overcomes some bad tendencies and polishes his game. Clifton, though unlikely to play above the bottom pair in the NHL, plays a physical, high-intensity brand of hockey that makes him a refreshing addition to the lineup as an extra man. While he is limited in some areas, Clifton is nevertheless an eye-catching presence on the ice. Any of the three affordable young blue liners would be unsurprising selections by Seattle.

In contrast, the forwards remaining – especially with two protection slots yet to be claimed – are far less likely to be chosen. For starters, the biggest available name, DeBrusk, will not be available. Despite a very poor 2020-21 campaign, DeBrusk is still a 24-year-old forward with a 27-goal season and two 40+ point seasons on his resume. In DeBrusk’s first three seasons, he played at an 82-game pace of 25 goals and 49 points. While his production this season was far from that mark, the Bruins are not ready to give up on him that easy. At $3.675MM on the final year of his current contract, DeBrusk is a palatable cap hit in exchange for the upside. While it is true that he may need a chance of scenery, the Bruins will not just give him away; they will hold out for a fair trade or not move him at all. If DeBrusk is still a Bruin by this weekend, he will almost definitely be protected.

One spot left up front and so many options. All have their reasons for, but also have reasons against protection. Of the remaining group of available names, Ritchie was far and away the top scorer. However, the big winger’s production was heavily weighted on his early season power play role. As the year wore on, Ritchie’s production disappeared and by the end of the playoffs he had been demoted to the fourth line. A restricted free agent with limited ability given his offensive and defensive shortcomings, the Bruins can hope that Seattle bites based on Ritchie’s goal scoring numbers this year, but it is unlikely. Even if the team wants him back, they will probably not protect him.

The same goes for Kase. On talent alone, Kase should be protected and if left unprotected should be the obvious selection for the Kraken. However, his injury history makes both teams wary. Kase missed all but three games this season due to concussion issues and his future is unknown. The Bruins may want to keep Kase around after trading for him just last year, but not at his $2.6MM qualifying offer given the injury risk, meaning they likely plan to make him an unrestricted free agent anyway. Also knowing Seattle is unlikely to risk an expansion selection on a player who may never be healthy, it would be surprising to see Kase protected.

Seemingly just a throw-in to the Hall trade, Lazar was a great fit with the Bruins down the stretch and in the postseason and if not selected in the Expansion Draft looks to anchor the fourth line and contribute to the penalty kill in Boston next year. However, he is one year away from unrestricted free agency and has bounced around the NHL with limited sustained success in his young career. The Bruins are unlikely to protect him and know Seattle is unlikely to select him for the same reasons. As for fellow fourth liner Wagner, the local product was worth a multi-year deal at $1.35MM AAV to the Bruins, but not to most other teams. Expecting the Kraken to pass, the Bruins probably do not protect Wagner. The team also knows that in the event that Lazar or Wagner are in fact taken by Seattle, they have plenty of defensive-minded forwards waiting in the AHL for opportunity.

So who gets the final protection slot? The smart money is on young Frederic. The 2016 first-round pick is a budding fan favorite in Boston with his hard-nosed style and willingness to drop the gloves. Frederic also showed good offensive ability in the NCAA and AHL prior to his arrival as an NHL regular this season. He still has some holes to his game with growing left to do, but the Bruins lacked grit and physicality at times this season and know they can get at least that from Frederic, if not more. With a higher ceiling than any other bottom-six forward in consideration (not including a healthy Kase), Frederic offers the most potential value to the Bruins.

Projected Protection List

F Patrice Bergeron (NMC)
F Charlie Coyle (NMC)
F Jake DeBrusk
F Trent Frederic
F Brad Marchand (NMC)
F David Pastrnak
F Craig Smith

D Brandon Carlo
D Matt Grzelcyk
D Charlie McAvoy

G Daniel Vladar

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Curtis Lazar, Chris Wagner
Defensemen (3): Connor Clifton, Jeremy Lauzon, Jakub Zboril

The Seattle Kraken are not holding their breath about the Bruins’ protection list. They know that regardless of the final decisions they are getting a good player, even with Boston protecting their core. That could be a promising young defenseman like Lauzon or Zboril, a bottom of the lineup role player like Ritchie, Wagner, or Clifton, or maybe even a high-ceiling, low-floor risk in Kase. Seattle could also have plans to offer a godfather deal to one of the Bruins’ impending free agents, with Hall obviously the most intriguing of the bunch, or to use the sheer number of possible expansion losses as a way to goad Boston into making a side deal to select a certain player at a cost (Moore perhaps?). Regardless of the result, the Kraken will get something good from the Bruins.

Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Trade Rumors: Tarasenko, Buchnevich, Schmidt, Predators

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It is well-known by now that St. Louis Blues star Vladimir Tarasenko has requested a trade, but the extent to which he will go to make sure that request is honored may still be a surprise. Unlike other standout players with trade protection who simultaneously demand a trade while holding their team hostage with a limited list of acceptable destinations, Tarasenko is reportedly taking an “anywhere but St. Louis” approach. The Athletic’s Arthur Staple writes that Tarasenko, who has a full No-Trade Clause in his contract, has nevertheless provided the Blues with a considerable list of teams that he would be amenable to ending up with. Per multiple sources, Staple relays that the length of the list is “double-digits at least”. One team that is known to be on Tarasenko’s list of preferred destinations are the New York Islanders, though the salary cap implications would be tricky for such a deal. It is unknown if other teams who have checked in – the Boston Bruins, Edmonton Oilers, New York Rangers, and Washington Capitals – are also on the list, but the odds are in their favor. One way or another, Tarasenko will be dealt, putting an end to an injury saga that was only resolved once Tarasenko went outside the organization to repair his shoulder. He should be fully healthy moving forward, but with some doubt and a hefty contract, there is some concern about what the Blues will recoup in a trade, if anything. Some have speculated that they may need to attach their first-round pick in order to move the pricey veteran, while others believe he will be exposed in the Expansion Draft in hopes that the Seattle Kraken take him for free instead.

  • While it is unclear exactly why, it has become obvious that Pavel Buchnevich’s name is being floated on the rumor mill. The Athletic’s Rick Carpiniello confirms as much, but does not know the source. This could be a case of teams simply making calls to the New York Rangers about Buchnevich following a career year, creating the illusion that he is available for trade whether the team is taking those offers seriously or not. However, there is also a good chance that the Rangers are at least actively listening or even shopping Buchnevich. The 26-year-old winger has improved significantly in each of the past two years since signing his last contract with the Rangers. Now he is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights and the ammunition to command a sizeable pay raise. With more depth on the wing than at center, including top picks Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko, New York could choose to save the cap space for improving the center position, especially if Buchnevich can help to accomplish that goal as part of a trade. Carpiniello also notes that the Rangers have a number of young standouts who will require expensive extensions this summer and in the coming years and the team could be hesitant to let Buchnevich’s deal get in the way. Of course, this is all still speculation, but for whatever reason Buchnevich’s name is out there.
  • It was reported last week that the Vancouver Canucks and defenseman Nate Schmidt could be heading for a split this summer after a less than inspiring first season. However, the team has since publicly denied any talks to trading Schmidt. Nevertheless, Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli still debuted Schmidt at No. 12 on his Trade Targets board and believes that there is something to the rumors. Schmidt was not a good fit in Vancouver this season but still has value in the eyes of teams across the league; he appears to want to maintain that value by leaving the Canucks. Vancouver likely does not want to give up leverage by admitting that their is a mutual desire for a move, but could very much use his cap space.
  • The NHL Expansion Draft allows flexibility with protection schemes, offering teams the ability to protect seven forwards and three defensemen or, in the event that there is a fourth defensemen worth more than protecting three additional forwards, the eight-skater approach. However, there is not much a team can do when they want to protect five defenseman (unless they somehow feel they can afford to only protect three forwards.) The Nashville Predators appear to be facing this conundrum. Earlier in the season, the team entertained trading Mattias Ekholm because it was assumed they wanted to protect Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, and Dante Fabbro and seven forwards in the upcoming Expansion Draft. However, once the team began to improve and Ekholm was not moved before the Trade Deadline, it then became more likely that they would go with eight skaters instead, keeping all four defensemen. The late-season breakout of Alexandre Carrier threw a wrench in those plans though. The 24-year-old Carrier outplayed and ultimately took the job of the 23-old Fabbro and now the Predators do not want to lose either for nothing to the Seattle Kraken. It has previously been reported that Nashville is trying to construct a side deal with Seattle that would see the NHL’s newest team take a player of the Predators’ choosing with an additional cost, rather than having an open selection of all exposed players. However, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that in the even such a deal cannot be reached, the Predators will try to trade one of their top five defenders. LeBrun believes it will be one trade route or the other; Nashville will not protect all five defensemen.

Free Agent Focus: New York Rangers

at CDT | by 12 Comments

Free agency is now just under a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. The Rangers are more concerned with the latter than the former, with few impending UFAs of note but quite a few impact RFAs.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Pavel Buchnevich – Buchnevich is one of four of the Rangers’ top-twelve scoring forwards without a contract for next season, alongside Chytil, Gauthier, and Di Giuseppe, but is by far the most important. Buchnevich finished third in per-game scoring for New York this year, behind only stars Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad. His 48 points were two more than his 2019-20 total, but in 14 fewer games. Buchnevich’s consistent scoring paired with his defensive improvements and success on both special teams units led to an increase in ice time to 18:44 per game, top line minutes again behind only Zibanejad and Panarin. Buchnevich timed this breakout year well; the 26-year-old forward is now a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. This is not an aberration either, as Buchnevich has shown steady improvement throughout his career and is firmly established as a top-six forward with 20-goal and 50-point regularity. The Rangers will have no choice but to pay up, short-term or long-term, with an unfavorable arbitration decision, not to mention the animosity created by the process, as a looming threat.

G Igor Shesterkin – The Rangers may have two young goaltenders in the pros and a multitude of talented prospects in the pipeline, but make no mistake: Shesterkin is invaluable. The 25-year-old netminder has only played in 47 games across two seasons since coming over from the KHL, but has been superb with a .921 save percentage, 2.59 GAA, and a .611 points percentage in his decisions for a team that has played at a .552 clip over the past two years. Shesterkin is the best of the bunch in net in New York and the Rangers need to lock him up on a multi-year deal, regardless of his lack of NHL experience. Shesterkin’s arbitration eligibility ensures that they will have to pay him fairly as well. Shesterkin is close to unrestricted free agency and the worst thing the team could do is sign what looks to be a solid NHL starter to a short-term deal (or settle for an arbitration decision) only to see him continue to perform or even improve and then price himself out of town.

Other RFAs: F Filip Chytil, D Brandon Crawley, F Gabriel Fontaine, F Julien Gauthier, F Tim Gettinger, D Libor Hajek, G Adam Huska, F Patrick Newell, F Ty Ronning, D Yegor Rykov

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Brendan Smith – It wasn’t long ago that Smith’s contract was one of the most criticized in the NHL as he was buried in the minors in the first season of a four-year, $17.4MM deal with the Rangers. In the years since, he has somewhat recovered to become a good albeit still overpaid depth defenseman for New York. Smith has played in over 80% of the Rangers’ games over the past three seasons since his abysmal debut season, providing physicality and defensive stability and, for the first time in 2020-21, more secure puck-handling and a hint more offense. With a deep stable of talented young defensemen, the Rangers don’t need Smith. However, they could do far worse than someone with versatility, checking ability, and veteran experience as a depth option. He would come much cheaper this time around as well, as Smith is unlikely to have a competitive market as a free agent.

F Phil Di Giuseppe – At 27 years old with only 201 career games and 53 career points, Di Giuseppe has not much more than a depth option during his time in the NHL and likely won’t be. However, he proved to be valuable in that role in two seasons with New York, playing a gritty checking game and contributing some modest offense. Di Giuseppe’s success as a plug-and-play bottom-six forward is not limited to his time with the Rangers either, as some of his best seasons were playing the same role with the Carolina Hurricanes. As an affordable extra man, Di Giuseppe has value to the Rangers as an extension candidate, but he may be on the lookout for more opportunity rather than staying on a New York roster that is deep in young players in need of ice time and hoping to add more veterans this off-season.

Other UFAs: D Jack Johnson, D Darren Raddysh

Projected Cap Space

While Buchnevich and Shesterkin will earn considerable deals this summer and Chytil is deserving of a sizeable raise as well, the Rangers remain in good shape with the salary cap. They currently project to have $22.89MM in cap space with 18 players on the NHL roster, but that includes third-string goaltender Keith Kinkaid and cap charge for defenseman Anthony DeAngelo, who will be traded or at worst bought out in the off-season. A more accurate projection is closer to $25.5MM with 17 players on the roster. New deals for Gauthier, Hajek, and possibly Smith or Di Giuseppe (or replacements) should come cheap, leaving plenty of room to re-sign the key trio of RFA’s with room to spare to add another impact forward or two.

Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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