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Vegas Places Malcolm Subban On Injured Reserve

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Just 54 games into their existence as an NHL franchise, perhaps no team in the league more familiar than the Vegas Golden Knights when it comes to injuries in goal. Other than their amazing success in their inaugural season, the other big story line for Vegas this season has been the unbelievable frequency with which their net minders get hurt. Marc-Andre Fleury, Malcolm Subban, Oscar Dansk, and Maxime Lagace have all missed time this season due to injury and much of it came at the same time. Their #1, #2, and #3 keepers were all injured in October and the unproven Lagace struggled in relief. Yet, the Knights stayed strong through it all and had put their goalie injury woes behind them.

Now, they’re back again. The Sin Bin reports that Subban is headed to the injured reserve for the second time this season. Subban sustained an upper-body injury on Thursday morning ahead of the team’s game with the San Jose Sharks. Vegas took a risk and still dressed Subban for the match-up, though The Sin Bin states that he was not actually available to play. Following a practice today in which the team’s emergency goalie was in attendance and Subban was not, came the official move to place him on IR.

The loss of Subban is not without some significant repercussions. While Fleury has been phenomenal for the Knights this season, Subban has also done very well for himself in his first full NHL season. After struggling to even win the AHL job with the Boston Bruins over the past few years, Subban has thrived in Vegas after coming over via waivers. The 24-year-old has an 11-3-1 record and seven quality starts, which has mattered more the to capable Golden Knights than his pedestrian .912 save percentage and 2.49 GAA.

Lagace has been tabbed as his replacement for now, as he has been recalled from the AHL’s Chicago Wolves. While Lagace’s NHL numbers earlier this season were far from Stellar, Dansk is still working his way back to full health, making Lagace the clear choice for the time being. Both young goaltenders could see action in Vegas while Subban remains sidelined. The last thing the Golden Knights want to do is overwork Fleury and risk injury to then end up with both NHL options on the shelf yet again.

Bruins Notes: Acciari, Czarnik, Donato

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The Boston Bruins have been on a roll for going on three months now. The team is 27-4-4 since November 16th – a whopping .829 points percentage in that span – and is neck-and-neck with the Tampa Bay Lightning for the best record in the NHL. A major part of that success has been balance and chemistry among the forward lines. Over this long streak of impressive play, the Bruins have been lining up the same four groupings in every game in which they have access to all twelve forwards. Outside of a recent Brad Marchand five-game suspension, during which the Bruins dropped their first regulation loss since December 14th, the only regular up front who has missed considerable time is energy line winger Noel Acciari. Acciari has been banged up for much of the campaign, including missing 13 games with a fractured finger early on, when the team was battling severe injury issues. However, his latest sidelining comes courtesy of a lower-body injury back in January. Since then, Acciari has missed the last six games and, according to coach Bruce Cassidy, will miss another tonight against the Buffalo Sabres. However, there is some optimism that Acciari could be ready to go tomorrow against the New Jersey Devils.

  • The question now becomes whether Acciari can reclaim his regular fourth-line role. His replacement, AHL All-Star Austin Czarnik, has performed admirably in his stead and has received praise from Cassidy for his play. The quick, skilled forward, who is one of the AHL’s top scorers with 42 points through 38 games with the Providence Bruins, has added a new dimension to the team’s bottom line. Playing alongside Czarnik, Sean Kuraly broke a 29-game goal drought on Tuesday night and then added another on Wednesday, while Tim Schaller scored this uncharacteristic highlight reel goal on Wednesday as well. Czarnik himself has a three-game points streak going and has fit in well in Boston. While it may be difficult to figure out how to fit Czarnik onto the roster long-term, it could be worth the effort. Acciari, in comparison, had just one point in eight games prior to his injury – though that stretch was preceded by a three-game goal-scoring outburst.
  • Czarnik’s immediate production, on Boston’s checking line no less, speaks both to the ability of the team and the depth of talent available to them. Another dark horse depth addition down the stretch – and yet another reason the deadline could be quiet for the Bruins – is a name that many will hear in the coming weeks: Ryan Donato. One of the four college players named to Team USA for the ongoing Olympic Games, Donato is not just expected to play for the U.S., but to star. A Harvard product and son of former Bruin and Crimson head coach Ted Donato, Ryan is arguably the best pure scorer on the American roster. He has recorded 21 goals in just 23 games this season, leading the NCAA in scoring and earning him a Hobey Baker Award nomination. That kind of ability is why there are big expectations for him in both Pyeongchang and in Boston. Many foresee the Bruins trying to sign Donato as soon as his junior year season ends and perhaps adding him to the roster for the playoffs, much like they did last year with Charlie McAvoy. 

Trade Candidates: Radim Vrbata

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

The last time that the Florida Panthers went out and added a veteran Czech forward, it worked out perfectly. Jaromir Jagr was an All-Star and the Panthers were Atlantic Division champions. GM Dale Tallon may have been hoping that lightning would strike twice when he added Jagr’s countryman, Radim Vrbata, this off-season. It didn’t. In fact, Vrabta’s tenure in Florida has been an unmitigated disaster, as the 36-year-old is on pace to have the worst offensive season of his long, successful NHL career.

Nevertheless, Vrbata has shown time and time again to be a lethal weapon when he finds the right line chemistry and, despite what they say, even on teams other than the Coyotes. Vrbata’s decline in production could be a sign of his age, but some teams may gamble on it instead being a product of his surroundings and will look to acquire the experienced scorer at a bargain price. The Panthers are not as far out of a the playoff picture as some might think – six points back with two games in hand as of this writing – but that won’t stop them from entertaining offers on several players, especially Vrbata. The veteran forward hasn’t worked out in Florida and wouldn’t be much of a loss for the Cats, so a trade could wind up as a win-win for both sides.

Contract

Vrbata signed a one-year deal with Florida this summer that carries a $2.5MM base salary, his cap hit for the year. Vrbata can earn an additional $1.25MM in performance bonuses and, interestingly enough, a trade to a contender could trigger one of them; Vrbata earns $250K if his team makes the playoffs this season. He also earns $250K each for 10 goals, 15 goals, 20 goals, and 45 points. With just 5 goals and 13 points thus far, he realistically has a shot at only $500K in bonuses for 10 goals and a playoff berth. This overage would count against next season’s cap.

2017-18

The myth surrounding Vrbata has always been that he doesn’t perform outside of Arizona. While past campaigns in Colorado, Chicago, and Vancouver have indicated otherwise, this season in Florida has only added fuel to that fire. Vrbata has skated in 35 games for the Panthers this season, missing five games due to injury, five to illness, and another six (and counting) as a healthy scratch. Even when he’s been on the ice, Vrbata has been invisible. He’s outside the top ten in goals, assists, and points among Panthers and his impressive power play production has dried up, reduced to just four points on the year. On top of that, Vrbata has the third-worst plus/minus on the team and, as he has his whole career, plays with little physical or defensive ability. As a result of his poor play, the 16-year NHL veteran is seeing the least ice time of his career. The Vrbata experiment in Sunrise did not work out and will soon be over, either via trade or the end of the season.

Season Stats

35 GP: 5 goals, 8 assists, 13 points, -8 rating, 14 PIM, 78 shots, 13:05 ATOI, 44.3 CF%

Potential Suitors

So who would want to trade for such an uninspiring asset? Unfortunately for Vrbata, the Coyotes aren’t an option as they are as far from a deadline seller as any team could be. However, Vrbata has found success elsewhere before in his career and he can do so again. Especially at this point in his career, Vrbata is the perfect deadline depth acquisition: a hired gun who doesn’t need to be relied upon to be a team’s best player. With the right fit, Vrbata can score in bunches down the stretch and in the postseason. Several playoff-bound teams are known to be looking for a scoring winger, including the Washington Capitals, St. Louis Blues, and San Jose Sharks. All three teams have the infrastructure where Vrbata could settle in to a middle-six role depending on which personnel he fits best with. Top contenders like the Nashville Predators and Tampa Bay Lightning – if the Bolts are willing to bring Vrbata back for a second go-round after his disappointing prior stint – could also use the luxury of bringing in a veteran winger, but could also survive if he doesn’t work out and ends up a frequent scratch.

However, where Vrbata is likely the best fit is not with a bona fide playoff team, but instead a fringe team looking to make a minor addition in hopes of increasing their odds of seeing the postseason. The Calgary Flames, who won’t trade away any high draft picks, might be happy to take a look at Vrbata if the price is a late pick or low-end prospect. The Colorado Avalanche, the team that drafted Vrbata, and New Jersey Devils have both stated that they won’t derail their long-term plans by chasing expensive rentals, but could pursue the affordable Vrbata, while the Anaheim Ducks and Carolina Hurricanes could also be options if they are closer to a playoff berth come deadline day.

Likelihood of a Trade

Predicting whether Vrbata’s 2017-18 performance will outweigh his career production in the eyes of this year’s buyers is impossible. There is a clear need for a veteran winger with a scoring touch on many teams, including some not even mentioned, but whether they target Vrbata over any number of other options (even including Panthers teammate Colton Sceviour) remains to be seen. If anyone does come calling though, it would be a surprise to see Florida turn down the best offer. The Panthers will continue to push for a playoff spot of their own, but Vrbata won’t play a real part in that plan whether he is traded or not. The signing was a failure, but Florida can still turn it into a positive if they are able to get something back in return for trading Vrbata.

Alex Burrows Suspended Ten Games

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When Alex Burrows was invited to a in-person hearing with the NHL Department of Player Safety, it became known that the Ottawa Senators forward could be suspended more than five games. While the Senators squared off with the New Jersey Devils last night, Burrows got tangled up with Taylor Hall and seemed to intentionally and maliciously knee Hall in the head repeatedly. Player Safety saw the play the same way and tonight handed down a ten-game suspension for Burrows. Player Safety summed up the altercation as follows:

“In short, for the sole purpose of retribution, Burrows drags an unwilling opponent to the ice, punches him several times, then uses his knee pad to violently inflict more punishment on his opponent’s head… This is a dangerous and unjustifiable attack that runs the risk of severe injury and such plays will not be tolerated by the Department of Player Safety.”

This ten-game ban, more than 12% of the 82-game season and exactly one third of Ottawa’s remaining games, is the longest suspension of the season in the NHL. It’s no surprise that Burrows is the culprit, as the veteran forward has one of the more tarnished reputations in the league when it comes to dirty play. (Remember he bit Patrice Bergeron in the 2011 Stanley Cup Final). In fact, Burrows has already been fined $5,000 earlier this season for roughing, though that’s nothing compared to the $135,000 he is now set to lose.

Burrows does have the right to appeal the suspension, first to commissioner Gary Bettman and then to a neutral arbitrator, but such challenges are rare in the NHL and even more so is unlikely to be successful, given the clear graphic nature of the offense. Burrows will have to sit for ten game, unable to return to the Ottawa lineup until March. For the bottom-dwelling Senators, Burrow’s absence won’t mean the difference between making the playoffs or not. However, it does make last year’s trade, in which the Sens gave up promising prospect Jonathan Dahlen, that much harder to swallow.

 

Flames Won’t Part With Picks For Rentals

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Calgary Flames president Brian Burke isn’t one to mince words. So, when Burke told Sportsnet 590 host Bob McCown that the Flames won’t be using picks as trade bait at the NHL Trade Deadline, it’s legitimate:

“We don’t have a lot of picks — we’re not picking until [the third round of the 2018 draft], so we can’t use the deadline to pick up a rental player with a relatively high pick… We’re not going into [2019] picks … unless it’s an extraordinary circumstance.”

Burke’s comments seem to line up with recent reports about Calgary’s current condition. Last week, we took a look at exactly what Burke was referring to – the team’s lack of draft picks. The Flames could potentially have to wait until the fourth round to make their first pick this June and, one way or another, have already surrendered their 2019 second-rounder. Burke is not exaggerating when he says that the team can’t afford to give up any more high picks for rentals this deadline. The team’s unwillingness to move picks also adds some credence to the report that young goaltenders Jon Gillies and David Rittich are on the market. If Calgary wants to make a move, they’ll have to dive into their prospect depth to avoid surrendering further draft picks. In addition to their young goalies, slowly-developing 2013 first-rounders Emile Poirier and Hunter Shinkaruk and young defensemen Oliver Kylington, Rasmus Andersson, and even Brett Kulak could be on the move. One player who won’t be leaving: 2017 first-round pick Juuso Valimaki, who Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman says is highly sought-after, but untouchable (Thought 6).

What exactly do the Flames need at the deadline? Burke says a scoring winger and the team’s 20th-ranked offense and 23rd-ranked power play would seem to back that up. Burke seems to think that a return to health for Kris Versteeg could be the solution, but the veteran forward alone is not enough to cure an ineffective bottom-six. Calgary currently sits in the third and final Pacific playoff spot, tied with the Anaheim Ducks and one point ahead of the Los Angeles Kings, but in fact sit behind L.A. in terms of points percentage. With it looking increasingly likely that the Central Division will claim both Western wild card spots, the Flames can’t help but seek an edge over the Ducks and Kings if they want to make the playoffs. Despite Burke’s hopes of an internal turnaround and the team’s difficult draft pick situation, sitting pat at the deadline will likely spell doom for the Flames’ 2017-18 campaign.

Ilya Kovalchuk To Again Test NHL Market

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Around this time last year, word got out that former NHL superstar Ilya Kovalchuk was considering a comeback. The big, Russian sniper retired from the league in 2013, before even his 30th birthday and just three years into a massive (and now patently illegal) 15-year, $100MM contract with the New Jersey Devils. Kovalchuk returned home to Russia and had played with the KHL’s powerhouse club, SKA Saint Petersburg, every year since. However, his NHL ambitions had him thinking about a return trip across the Atlantic last summer. For much of the latter half of the season and into the off-season, Kovalchuk’s potential return was one of the hottest topics in hockey circles. Then, on July 4th, mere days into unrestricted free agency, Kovalchuk re-signed with SKA and his triumphant return was no more.

Now, a year later, it seems Kovalchuk is up for round two. The veteran scorer has shown no signs of slowing down in the KHL, already racking up 63 points through 53 games this season, and with the Olympics about to begin, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman believes talk of a potential return is about to heat back up (Thought 27). As Friedman alludes to, Kovalchuk’s re-entry into the NHL will be much simpler this summer as the Devils will no longer possess his rights. Last off-season, Kovalchuk’s only chance of a return – outside of signing with the Devils – was to find a team both willing to sign him to an expensive contract and then trade for his rights from New Jersey. Devils GM Ray Shero remarked after Kovalchuk decided to stay in Russia that Kovalchuk never came to him with a contract offer and no team came to him with a trade proposal, so clearly the interest was low in having to acquire a free agent via trade, especially an older one who had been out of the NHL for several years. This time around, that risk will be much less painless as the Devils will no longer hold his rights. Once he turns 35 on April 15th, Kovalchuk will be removed from the “Voluntary Retirement” list and will be made an unrestricted free agent, capable of negotiating a deal with any team in the league.

So where will he end up? The Hockey News clearly expects him to draw a lot of attention, as they ranked him ninth on their 2018 free agent board. Here at PHR, Kovalchuk was an afterthought in our Mid-Season UFA Rankings, not cracking the top 20. The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle with certain teams having specific interest in his skill set and others unwilling to take the risk on an aging player with a notoriously selfish playing style. As for Kovalchuk himself, Friedman believes that he would prefer to land in New York City. You can cross the Devils off that list; they’re paying $250K in recapture penalties every year until 2025, so they’re not giving Kovalchuk another dime. Plus, if New Jersey really wanted him, the two sides would have struck a deal last year. So that leaves the Rangers and Islanders as Kovalchuk’s Big Apple options. With John Tavares and possibly Josh Bailey and Calvin de Haan to re-sign, the Isles are not likely suitors. The Rangers on the other hand tend to be a team that’s often interested in the headline-making acquisition and, with Rick Nash coming off the books, have the cap space to add some salary. Kovalchuk and the Rangers could be a pairing to watch for this summer.

Canucks Sign Darren Archibald; Call Him Up From AHL

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The Vancouver Canucks have rewarded one of their minor league contributors with an NHL contract. The team announced this afternoon that they have signed 27-year-old Darren Archibald to a minimum deal for the remainder of the season. On top of that, they have recalled Archibald from the AHL’s Utica Comets and he may soon make the return to an NHL lineup that few saw coming.

It has been a long, strange path for Archibald, but one that shows that loyalty and hard work pay off. The big, 6’3″ Canadian winger was undrafted out of the OHL, but signed an entry-level contract with Vancouver in 2010. After three years spent mostly back in junior, with the AHL’s Chicago Wolves, and with the ECHL’s Kalamazoo Wings, Archibald re-upped with the Canucks in 2013-14 and finally got to make his NHL debut. Archibald skated in 16 games with Vancouver that season, an made an impression with his physical play, but failed to make much of a dent on the score sheet with just three points. Archibald spent most of the season and all of the following season down in the minors with the Comets, but then in 2015, he didn’t receive an extension offer from the Canucks. Rather than bolting overseas, Archibald remained committed to Utica and has played on a minor-league deal with the team for each of the past three seasons.

Last year, Archibald found his scoring touch and set a franchise record (albeit for a young franchise) in goals in a season with 23. He entered the year already holding the second-place spot in career games played, goals, and points for Utica and was most penalized Comet in team history. Back when he re-signed with team this summer, we posited that another strong season could earn him another shot at the NHL. With 16 points in 25 contests thus far and a continued physical dominance of the AHL-level – and in some preseason NHL action – that has come to fruition. As much as this could be a kind act by the Canucks towards a loyal veteran player, it is also fairly easy to see Archibald playing a reliable checking line role for the team down the stretch. If the Comets’ alternate captain continues to work hard at the next level, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could start next season with an NHL contract.

Deadline Primer: Boston Bruins

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?

Outside of the Vegas Golden Knights, there may be no bigger surprise in the NHL this season than the Boston Bruins. Following a 6-7-4 start, capped off by a four-game winless streak in mid-November, the Bruins have won 26 of their last 34 games, have the fewest regulation losses in the league, and trail only Vegas and the Tampa Bay Lightning for the best points percentage in the NHL. With games in hand on both clubs, the Bruins have gone from a team that many felt pre-season would miss the playoffs to one with a legitimate shot at the President’s Trophy. Boston is bona fide contender and thus a surefire buyer. The only question that remains is to what extent they are willing to trade futures for immediate help. The evidence points to a quieter deadline in Boston than some may expect.

Record

31-11-8, 2nd in the Atlantic Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$2,452,057 in deadline cap space
43/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Draft Picks

2018: BOS 1st, BOS 2nd, BOS 3rd, BOS 4th, BOS 6th, BOS 7th
2019: BOS 1st, BOS 2nd, BOS 3rd, BOS 4th, BOS 5th, BOS 6th, BOS 7th

Trade Chips

Bruins GM Don Sweeney has been clear that he won’t trade any of the team’s young players on the roster. While that surely includes Charlie McAvoy – one of the most untouchable players in the NHL right now – Brandon Carlo, Matt Grzelcyk, Danton Heinen, Jake DeBrusk, and Anders Bjork, where exactly Sweeney draws the line could determine the size of the deals he’s willing to make. Could frequent 13th man Frank Vatrano be on the move? An electric player in the AHL, Vatrano has failed to show he can produce at the same level in the NHL. A chance of scenery and a larger role on a young, struggling squad could be what Vatrano needs to rediscover his scoring touch, potentially making him an enticing asset. Would Sweeney be willing to move his AHL “tweeners” like Austin Czarnik or Rob O’Gara, who have shown big-league ability, but haven’t been able to crack the roster in Boston? Sweeney may also be reluctant to move many of the Bruins younger prospects, like recent first- and second-rounders Zach Senyshyn, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, Jakub Zboril, and Jeremy Lauzon in Providence and Trent Frederic, Ryan Donato, and Ryan Lindgren in the NCAA, especially with several ready to fight for a spot in Boston as early as next year. The Bruins own all but one of their picks over the next two years and that wealth could ultimately wind up being the team’s real trade chip.

Players To Watch

LW Frank Vatrano, C Austin Czarnik, LW Peter Cehlarik, D Rob O’Gara, D Emil Johansson

Team Needs

1) Forward Depth

If you can’t tell from the list of players above, it seems like the Bruins are not exactly aiming to acquire the best that the trade market has to offer. The team is unwilling to move young roster players and has high hopes for their many promising prospects. Sweeney and company have done an excellent job of drafting and developing and seem more inclined to wait and see who pans out and who doesn’t rather than trade them away for rentals. The Bruins’ farm system is also severely lacking in right-shot defensemen and right wingers, meaning they’d likely prefer to hold on to their top picks if possible in search of a solution to those holes. The result is a lineup of middling or aging prospects and mid- and late-round picks as the B’s preferred trade capital, not enough to acquire stars, but sufficient to add depth players. And for the 2017-18 Bruins, that’s perfectly fine. They showed early on this season that they have the depth already to deal with injuries up front (and on the blue line) and since the team got healthy, they’ve been rolling on all cylinders. Each scoring line has two veterans and a young player, led by arguably the league’s best grouping of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, and David Pastrnak. A second line that has seen success turning a left-handed natural center in Ryan Spooner into a right wing with David Krejci and DeBrusk and a third line with immense chemistry in David Backes, Riley Nash, and Heinen round out a solid top nine. Perhaps the one area where they could use some assistance is on the fourth line, where Tim Schaller, Noel Acciari, and rookie Sean Kuraly have done a fine job, but the addition of a solid, two-way bottom-six forward (or two) could be a welcome addition to the energy line and another injury depth option. Even if the Bruins don’t see a need for a starter, with late draft picks to burn, they could add another veteran forward just to improve their depth. In a buyer’s market, even one of the bigger names on the market could fit this role.

2) Left-shot depth defenseman

Similarly, each defensive pair is also well-balanced with a veteran and a youngster and a puck-mover with a physical threat. The Bruins usually line up with Zdeno Chara and Calder candidate McAvoy, Torey Krug with Carlo, and possession monster Grzelcyk with Kevan Miller. Now that he’s healthy, career-starter Adam McQuaid is the #7 defenseman in Boston – stellar depth already – and free agent addition Paul Postma is #8 – also impressive. The only problem is that both McQuaid and Postma are right-handed, as are the right-side rearguards on each pair. If injury strikes the left side, or if Grzelcyk’s play drops off, the B’s could use a left-shot option. O’Gara and Tommy Cross have seen NHL action and Zboril, Lauzon, and Johansson have shown NHL promise, but the Bruins can afford to add a more reliable player with regular play time this season if they so choose.

3) Top-six right wing with term

Don’t expect this. Long-term, there could be a hole on Krejci’s right side, as Backes did not work out last season and Spooner’s success thus far has come as a surprise. Senyshyn or Donato and an off-wing option like Bjork or Cehlarik could eventually take the job, but there are some who think the Bruins should instead try to buy one of the top wings on the trade market. However, there are two problems with this thought: 1) Sweeney seems unwilling to part with the pieces necessary to land such a player, and 2) the line chemistry implications could backfire. Spooner is an offense-first, top-nine player. If forced out of his current spot, Spooner’s only real option would be to supplant Nash on the third line. If that doesn’t work out, then there’s no role for him. An expensive trade could wind up pushing one of the Bruins’ top play-making forwards out of the lineup. Adding a top-six winger would be a luxury for Boston and Sweeney does not seem to be a guy keen on giving up hard-earned, home-grown prospects or picks for a luxury.

Super Bowl Preview: NHL Edition

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In the biggest sporting event of the year tomorrow, the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles will square off in Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Patriots are five-time Super Bowl winners, including two of the past three, while the Eagles are looking for their first ever title in the Super Bowl era. The teams and their histories could not be more different. The same cannot be said for their NHL counterparts, the Boston Bruins and Philadelphia Flyers, who have been rivals from as far back as when they were called the Boston Patriots in the AFL. So, while everyone else debates the ins and outs of the big game tomorrow, let’s take a look at the likely winner through the lens of the Pats’ and Eagles’ hockey-playing neighbors:

Scoring Offense – Advantage: Boston

When it comes to scoring, the Bruins are as dangerous as the Patriots. Boston has 160 goals for on the year, 8th in the league, but in only 49 games, giving them the 5th-best 3.27 goals per game rate. Led by Brad Marchand, who’s scoring .55 goals per game on his own this season, and his line mates Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak, who make up the league’s most dangerous line, the Bruins have great offensive potential. The Flyers meanwhile are just 18th in the league in scoring, with 147 goals, and putting up only 2.88 goals per game. However, Jakub Voracek and Claude Giroux are the two highest scoring players in the match-up, so don’t underestimate Philadelphia’s offensive potential.

Scoring Defense – Advantage: Boston

There’s no better team in the league at preventing goals than the Bruins, who are number one in goals against (120) and goals against per game (2.45). With Tuukka Rask playing Vezina-level hockey and Marchand, Bergeron, and 40-year-old Zdeno Chara (channeling his inner Tom Brady) among the top ten in the league in plus/minus, the Bruins are a force to reckon with on defense. The Flyers have struggled on defense in 2017-18, allowing 150 goals, tied for 19th in goals against. While the defense has been leaky at times, much of the fault lies with the underwhelming goalie duo of Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth. 

Passing Offense – Advantage: Boston

Passing will be a vital factor in the big game, and the Bruins hold a slight edge. The Bruins have 271 assists on the year compared to the Flyers’ 264. While Voracek is undoubtedly the best passer in the contest, with 50 assists already on the year, Boston’s overall puck movement game is superior, due in no small part to sleek passers on the blue line in Charlie McAvoy and Torey Krug, and several of the best possession players in the league, including the top Corsi player so far in 2017-18, rookie rearguard Matt Grzelcyk. 

Turnovers – Advantage: Boston

Turnovers can make or break a game and while both teams are in the red in turnover margin, the totals are not even close. The Bruins have recorded 442 takeaways so far this season, among the best in the league. However, they do give up the puck a fair amount with 465 recorded giveaways, producing a turnover margin of -23. Fortunately for Boston, the Flyers have given up the puck 462 times themselves, but have had no luck at all in taking it back, with only 302 recorded takeaways. That produces an ugly turnover margin of -160 and another big advantage for Boston.

Special Teams – Advantage: Boston

The Bruins’ 7th-ranked power play (21.71%) and 5th-ranked penalty kill (83.33%) make them one of, if not the best special teams squad in the NHL. They capitalize on the opposition’s penalties, but don’t let their own penalties cost them. That will be especially helpful against Philadelphia, who takes fewer penalties per game than Boston and is just behind the B’s in power play efficiency; their 21.39% success rate is good enough for 8th. However, Philly has struggled greatly short-handed, with the league’s third-worst penalty kill (73.89%).

Super Bowl Prediction: New England in a landslide

It’s been a few years since the Bruins were playing at a level anywhere near the dynastic Patriots, but in 2017-18 they are right there. Compared to the Flyers in all the important (and possible to compare) football statistics, it’s not even close. If the Patriots channel the Bruins, they should roll over the Eagles like they’ve rolled over the NFL for close to 20 years. One final note: the Pats have struggled to score early and have had to come from behind in each of their last two Super Bowl wins and even their AFC Championship win two weeks ago – the Bruins have the second-best points percentage in the NHL this season when allowing the first goal. It all lines up.

 

 

 

The Odds Of Drafting A Superstar And The 2018 NHL Draft

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Tyler Dellow went to work trying to figure out how the Ottawa Senators could maximize their trade return (subscription required) for Erik Karlsson, should the team decide to move the all-world defenseman prior to the NHL Trade Deadline on February 26th or at least before the 2018 NHL Entry Draft on June 22nd. Dellow surmised that in order to get anywhere near a fair return for Karlsson, Ottawa would need to acquire draft picks that could give them the best chance of finding a “franchise cornerstone” to replace him. The best-case-scenario for the Sens would obviously be to land the #1 overall pick in the lottery and the opportunity to draft the consensus top pick, Karlsson clone Rasmus Dahlin – a scenario that would not even require moving Karlsson. However, with the Arizona Coyotes and Buffalo Sabres likely having better lottery odds and another 12 teams having a chance at the top pick as well, its unlikely that the Senators choose first overall. Dahlin’s generational talent also means the lucky team that lands #1 isn’t moving it, even for Karlsson. So what then is the chance of finding a superstar in the draft? Dellow’s analysis produced these results:

  • First pick: 90 percent,
  • Second pick: 60 percent
  • Third or Fourth pick: 15 percent
  • Picks 5-20: 5 percent
  • Picks 21-30: 2 percent
  • Picks 31-60: 1 percent
  • Picks 61+:  .07 percent

While there is a considerable drop-off from the first pick to the second and the second to the third, it’s clear that picks #2 and #3 still hold immense value. Dellow goes on to describe the infrequency with which those picks are moved, citing Alexei Yashin-for-Jason Spezza and the drafting of Henrik and Daniel Sedin are rare recent examples. Dellow’s thesis continues that the current Vancouver Canucks could be a rare team willing to part with a high pick, if it meant landing Karlsson.

However what if Karlsson isn’t traded by the Draft – a situation that is far more likely than the media would make it out to be – would the normally untouchable top three picks be back off the table? Obviously, the results of the draft lottery matter immensely and the #1 pick will surely not be moved this year. More likely than not, #2 is going nowhere as well. Yet, the status of the 2018 draft class leads to much intrigue over the #3 pick, which historically has a 15% chance of landing a superstar. Unlike past years, there is no consensus second-best player in 2018. In some order, Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick were going 1-2 in 2017, as were Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine in 2016, and no one was going right behind Connor McDavid other than Jack Eichel in 2015. This year’s crop offers a situation unlike the last few seasons, wherein Dahlin is guaranteed to go first overall – and will be off the draft board of everyone but the lottery winner before the draft even begins – but the following picks are unpredictable. At #2, it could be Russian sniper Andrei Svechnikov, sleek Czech forward Filip Zadina, big, skilled Americans Brady Tkachuk or Oliver Wahlstrom, or a D-needy team with the second pick could even go off the board for a defenseman.

The decision on the second overall pick in 2018 will undeniably result in the top player on many teams’ board being selected, but the top player on many other teams’ board falling to #3. If that team at third overall was hoping to take the player selected at #2, now things could get interesting. According to Dellow’s results, the team at #3 has now lost a 45% chance of finding their next franchise player, but could trade out of the pick and still end up with one (or more) top 20 pick(s), each with a 5% chance of becoming a star, as well as possibly an established pick or player. If you put trust into a model like Dellow’s, a deal like this becomes much more about math and odds than simply taking the risk of trading back out of disappointment with the draft order.

Going back to the Karlsson-to-Vancouver hypothetical, imagine that the Canucks land the #3 overall pick while the Senators have a pick in the 5-20 range, either by the lottery or an additional pick from an upcoming trade. Vancouver hypothetically wanted Zadina, who went #2, while the top player on Ottawa’s board was Tkachuk (or maybe a defenseman like Adam Boqvist). Vancouver could, as Dellow proposes, offer the Sens the third pick – and a 15% chance at a star – and a prospect like Olli Juolevi, the fifth overall pick in 2016 – who holds a 5% chance of becoming a star himself – as part of a larger package for Karlsson and a first. Ottawa nets a 20% chance of adding a cornerstone player, including at least one potential replacement on the blue line, and Vancouver holds onto a 5% chance of finding a star of their own with the later first rounder. The 10% loss for Vancouver is more than made up by the gain of a bona fide star in Karlsson. Could a deal like this happen? For sure. Will it? Probably not, but Dellow’s analysis of draft pick values and a seemingly volatile draft board in 2018 helps to illuminate the possibilities of some fascinating, unprecedented deals early on at the 2018 Draft.

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