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Evening Notes: Updated Draft Odds, Keith

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With the season winding down, and teams vying for the better odds of winning the Rasmus Dahlin sweepstakes, the Ottawa Senators took another step in upping their chances at the top pick by losing to Detroit 2-0 this afternoon. With just four games remaining, the Sens are tied with Arizona for the second worst record in the NHL with 65 points. Buffalo still has the best shot at securing the rights for the first overall pick. The NHL released the odds two days ago and with several teams within a few points of one another, the “tank-a-thon” race could be the matter of a few points as opposed to Colorado’s historically bad season in 2016-17.   As it stands, here are the odds for the ten worst teams through Saturday evening. Vancouver won in overtime, blowing a 4-1 lead late but still notching two points, which moved them from a 9.5% chance to 8.5%.  Please note that Arizona, Buffalo, New York (Rangers and Islanders), Edmonton, and Montreal all play tonight, which could alter the landscape a bit.

Buffalo (18.5%) – 60 points – 5 games remaining
Ottawa (13.5%) – 65 points – 4 games remaining
Arizona (11.5%)   – 65 points – 4 games remaining
Montreal (9.5%) – 68 points – 5 games remaining
Vancouver (8.5%) – 69 points – 3 games remaining
Detroit (7.5%) – 71 points – 3 games remaining
Chicago (6.5%) – 74 points – 3 games remaining
NY Islanders (6.0%) – 74 points – 4 games remaining
Edmonton (5.0%) – 74 points – 4 games remaining
NY Rangers (3.5%) – 75 points – 4 games remaining

  • The Chicago Blackhawks are going to miss the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade, and some of that has to do with the Hawks inability to score goals. Duncan Keith has seen his share of struggles and is on pace to set an NHL record for the wrong reasons writes the Chicago Sun-Times Mark Lazerus. After taking 183 shots on net this season, Keith has only gotten the puck past a netminder once. Though his goal scoring has dropped off since he potted 10 back in 2014-15 when Chicago captured the Stanley Cup, nobody saw Keith’s performance going off the rails quite like this. Lazerus writes that if Keith doesn’t score in the final three games, Keith will set the NHL record for lowest non-zero shooting percentage. Lazerus adds that while Keith has been far and away the best defenseman for Chicago this season, he’s even fallen away from what has been his best play. Lazerus attributes this to being one of the only true top four defenseman on the team, something that has bogged down the two-time Norris Trophy winner.

Post-Trade Notes: McDonagh, Kane, Tatar

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The biggest deadline deal of the day was Tampa Bay’s acquisition of Ryan McDonagh that gave the Lightning a huge upgrade on the blue line while solving some later financial issues in unloading Vladislav Namestnikov to the Rangers. The deal again shows the wizardry of general manager Steve Yzerman, who had been linked to Mike Green, and Erik Karlsson, and yet still came away with the best defenseman that the market had to bear after Green and Karlsson were never moved. Not to be lost in the deal was the acquisition of J.T. Miller and suddenly, the Bolts got the jolt they needed as they head into the playoffs in just over a month. The Sporting News’ Jim Cerny awarded the Lightning an “A” in the deal, stating that Yzerman so badly wanted to fortify his defense corps and that he did. Cerny handed a B+ to the Rangers who are clearly back in rebuild mode.

  • Evander Kane is excited to be in San Jose but the Sporting News didn’t have great things to say about the deal for the Sabres. Awarding the Sabres an F, the first round pick that is contingent upon the Sharks either winning the Cup or re-signing Kane doesn’t bode well for a Sabres’ squad desperately trying to escape a rebuild-hell that seems to drag on every year. Kane was the best bargaining chip Buffalo had and a mini-slump mixed with a buyers market certainly complicated matters for first-year general manager Jason Botterill.  The Buffalo News’ John Vogl isn’t as harsh, writing that the rookie GM didn’t have a lot of options to choose from and it appears, according to Botterill himself, it was only one. Evander KaneColleague Mike Harrington, however, isn’t so kind. Calling it a “dud,” Harrington indicates that Botterill’s short honeymoon in Buffalo is now officially over, and the pressure to turn the Sabres around certainly ratcheted up after swinging and missing at the deadline. Writing that the roster is a “disaster,” Harrington retells a recent incident where Botterill was furious after a tepid Sabres showing against Los Angeles. Though the fire and indignation over a poor roster is there, Harrington wonders if Botterill can turn around a team that is as low as it can get.
  • Detroit Red Wings general manager called the trade of Tomas Tatar a move for “the future,” but it doesn’t solve any major issues right away.  The Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James indicates that according to Holland, the move opened up door for Tyler Bertuzzi and prospects Evgeny Svechnikov and Michael Rasmussen to get a chance in Detroit. It’s a philosophical shift for Holland who in the past deferred to his veterans and would let prospects “overripen” in the minors. The trade for Tatar is a beginning, but hardly the end of the work that Holland, or possibly his replacement, will need to accomplish with a slew of veterans locked into expensive, long-term deals. Holland is still without a contract extension and though THN’s Ken Campbell believes Holland may have saved his job with the trade (despite never thinking it was in trouble),  much of the Red Wings’ issues are a result of Holland’s missteps with contracts, drafting, and an inability to use the trade market to improve the team.

Evening Snapshots: Holland, Blackhawks, Carlson

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While Ken Holland is selling assets off following his deal of goaltender Petr Mrazek to the Philadelphia Flyers, he’s quick to caution that it’s not a full rebuild while adding that the Red Wings are “open for business.” NBC Sports’ Sean Leahy notes that Holland and the Red Wings are about to go through some “pain” in order to return to the higher echelon of the NHL, and even then, Holland may not be around to see the full plan in motion. Leahy writes that whether Holland ends up going to Seattle or if the Ilitch family decides that they will move on to a new general manager. Regardless, Holland will not do an entire teardown, preferring to retool the Wings in a gradual sense. Whether that works or not, it will take some time for Detroit to see the fruits of those labors.

  • Elliotte Friedman offered his 31 thoughts as the deadline nears. One such thought was that the Chicago Blackhawks prefer to hold onto Artem Anisimov since centers don’t exactly drop into teams laps all that often. Because of the language in his contract, Anisimov has less choice as to where he can go starting July 1, so should interested teams call, he can be pickier now with a no-move clause than a partial no-trade this summer. Friedman adds that after the Michal Kempny deal, the Blackhawks are focused on getting what they can for impending UFAs which include Lance Bouma, Jan Rutta, Tommy Wingels, and Patrick Sharp.
  • Friedman also pours some cold water on any hopes that John Carlson could reach free agency. Saying the Caps and Carlson seem “very comfortable” to discuss contract terms at the end of the season, teams hoping to snag the 28-year-old defenseman may be disheartened to read that. Freidman attributes the Steven Stamkos Sweepstakes (that never were) two seasons ago as a reason why teams are not nearly as “scared” when it comes to later negotiations. Stamkos, of course, seemed to be linked a new team every day until he inked an eight-year, $68MM extension.

 

Deadline Primer: Detroit Red Wings

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?  Next up is a look at the Detroit Red Wings.

The trades have already begun in Hockeytown as the Detroit Red Wings realize that it’ll be another season without a playoff appearance. Restocking a thin prospect pool, and getting younger are priorities for a team that hasn’t been a true contender in nearly a decade.

Record

24-25-9 (57 points); 5th in Atlantic

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$1.62MM per CapFriendly

Draft Picks

2018: DET 1st, DET 2nd, OTT 2nd; DET 3rd, PIT 3rd, DET 4th, PHI 4th*,  DET 6th, MON 6th.
2019: DET 1st, DET 2nd, DET 3rd, PHI 3rd*, DET 4th, DET 5th, BUF 5th, DET 6th, DET 7th
-* conditional picks

Trade Chips

What hasn’t been written about who the Red Wings have made available? The Red Wings have been shifting players out of Detroit since October, dealing Riley Sheahan to Pittsburgh and then sending Scott Wilson to Buffalo after he didn’t work out following the Sheahan trade. Goaltender Petr Mrazek was flipped to Philadelphia yesterday, starting what many believe will be the movement of other Red Wings. Mike Green is all but gone–the only questions remain where and when?

Feb 19, 2017; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Detroit Red Wings center <a rel=

Tampa Bay and Washington seem to be the front runners but don’t count out the Vegas Golden Knights, who have the draft picks Ken Holland covets. Gustav Nyquist is another name linked with other contenders as well as winger Luke Glendening, who could see a reunion with former bench boss Mike Babcock in Toronto. The Red Wings could retain salary on Green, making his contract hit much less since he’s in the final year of a deal.

More intriguing names to watch are defenseman Danny DeKeyser, netminder Jimmy Howard and forward Tomas Tatar, who could potentially find new homes for the right team. However, DeKeyser and Tatar are owed a lot of money with a lot of years while Howard will most likely be shipped near the draft when teams are retooling rosters. Finally, Xavier Ouellet a possibility to move on as well.

Names To Watch: Mike Green, Gustav Nyquist, Luke Glendening, Xavier Ouellet, Tomas Tatar. 

Team Needs

  1. Defensemen: The Red Wings are a mess on the blue line, their Achilles heel since losing Nicklas Lidstrom and Brian Rafalski to retirement in 2012 and 2011 respectively. Unable to properly address it, Detroit has to find top end talent or try and get high enough draft picks that will net a defenseman who could contribute soon. There’s help on the way–with promising d-men in Filip Hronek and Villi Saarijarvi, but fairly, that was also said about Ouellet, and Ryan Sproul, who was traded for Matt Puempel. Dennis Cholowski is playing well in the WHL, but he may still be a year away. Many wonder if Ken Holland looks back with disdain at not taking Jakob Chychrun when he had the chance during the 2016 draft. Regardless, building depth and finding those top pairing defensemen has to be the top priority. Though they need a couple big time scoring forwards as well, the key to Detroit’s resurgence is solidifying the blue line, once a stalwart of the Red Wings’ success in the 90’s and 2000’s.

Analysts Weigh In On Phaneuf Trade

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After the trade that sent Dion Phaneuf to the Los Angeles Kings, analysts from around the hockey world weighed in on their thoughts of the trade. The deal also brought Nate Thompson from Ottawa in exchange for Marian Gaborik and Nick Shore. Here are the thoughts of some scribes around the league.

The Los Angeles Times’ Curtis Zupke: 

Zupke sees Los Angeles benefitting from a veteran defenseman with playoff experience:

Phaneuf fills a need as a top-four defenseman with leadership and experience. He plays more than 20 minutes per game, in all situations, and he helped Ottawa reach Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals last season. Phaneuf also turns 33 in April and is signed through 2020-21, but the Kings are banking on some immediate dividends.

Bruce Garrioch: Ottawa Sun

Garrioch, like many others, looks at the financial ramification of the deal and how the rebuild is on in Ottawa.

Naturally, this is a huge deal for the Senators because they get Phaneuf’s cap hit off the books, though it does have to take Gaborik’s contract in return…This is the start of general manager Pierre Dorion’s promise to build the team back to respectability. The Senators had asked Phaneuf to waive his ‘no move’ clause in the summer so they could protect Marc Methot in the expansion draft, but couldn’t get the deal done. The move will give the Senators flexibility with the roster.

Kevin McGran: The Toronto Star

McGran also examines the financial aspect, indicating that the Sens may end up buying Gaborik’s deal in the end.

There is some cash savings, which is important for Ottawa owner Eugene Melnyk: Phaneuf is due $18.5 million in actual salary in the three years after this one. Gaborik is due $10,825. The Senators have to pay 25 per cent of Phaneuf’s salary, or $4.6 million. So they’re up to $15.4 million, a savings of $3.1 million (plus another half million for the remainder of this year) when comparing Phaneuf to Gaborik.(They’ll save on Nate Thompson, but his ultimate replacement will probably come in around the same dollar value.) One thing that makes sense is a buyout. Gaborik would cost less than Phaneuf. A Robidas Island situation is not likely. The Senators aren’t likely to spend to the cap anyway.

TSN: Ian Mendes

Mendes sees this as the beginning of sell-offs, and echoes McGran in saying that a buyout of Gaborik’s contract is likely.

Based on owner Eugene Melnyk’s recent statement – in which he announced a three-year contract extension for Dorion – it now appears as though the club has a mandate to shed salary and put more of an emphasis on developing younger talent.

The Phaneuf deal is likely the first domino to fall, as the club will save north of $5 million in real dollars over the next few seasons. Those savings could increase if the club opts to buy out the contract of Marian Gaborik this summer, although it’s unclear which route they will take at this point. We could get our first clue later this week if the Senators make Gaborik a healthy scratch for their games against Buffalo and the Rangers.

Red Wings Notes: Trade Rumors, Athanasiou

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The Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James writes that general manager Ken Holland is absolutely cognizant of the fact that the Red Wings are in “seller” mode. St. James quotes Holland as saying:

“I’m working the phones, I’m trying to see what the other teams in the league are thinking,” Holland said. “We are obviously not a buyer, we are not spending future assets to try to get in. We’ll see here over the next week what direction we are going, but I am aware we are eight points out and games are running out.”

The quote is nearly verbatim from last year, where Holland pulled the plug during early February and started dealing at the deadline.  Beating the Anaheim Ducks last night, in a game where the Ducks outplayed and outshot the Red Wings, isn’t anything to mistake as a game that get Detroit into a playoff spot. The issue remaining is whether or not Holland will truly begin rotating players out to stockpile as much young talent and higher draft picks that he can. Where the verbiage has changed is that on a roster that Holland usually gives the nod to a veteran, he seems to be ready to open up spots for younger players:

“I’ve talked to lots of teams over the last week and 10 days, and I’m doubling back with a number of them,” Holland said. “We’d like to get assets, open up spots for a kid or two for next season.”

Holland has been gun shy when it comes to making trades in the Cap era, and he’s still working without a contract extension. With Mike Green, Jimmy Howard, Petr Mrazek, Gustav Nyquist, and even Tomas Tatar in trade conversations, it will be interesting to see if Holland really will make the deals he seems to be hinting at.

  • Andreas Athanasiou is ready to make amends for his lackluster play that resulted in a third period benching reports the Detroit News’ Ted Kulfan. Punished for a lack of effort, Athanasiou played just one shift in yesterday’s 2-1 win during the third period. In spite of his athleticism, speed, and gamebreaker ability, Athanasiou has long been made an example by head coach Jeff Blashill when he hasn’t been at his best. Kulfan writes that consistency has been an issue for Athanasiou during his young career, but it’s an interesting take in that several players, especially higher priced ones, have been similarly inconsistent or turnover prone with the puck. Though he hasn’t scored in 11 games, Athanasiou still has more points than Darren Helm, and Justin Abdelkader, and is tied with Frans Nielsen, and Tomas Tatar, who have both played 10 more games than the 23-year-old forward. The combined cap hit for Abdelkader ($4.25MM), Nielsen ($5.25MM), Tatar ($5.3MM) and Helm ($3.85MM) is $18.65MM while Athanasiou makes a fraction of their individual salaries at $1.38MM. He’s also just a point behind Gustav Nyquist ($4.75MM), who also has ten more games to his name. Though it is fair to try and teach the young forward good habits, the larger issue in Detroit is once again giving large contracts to players who simply don’t produce the points to justify such payment.

Dion Phaneuf, Nate Thompson Dealt To Los Angeles For Marian Gaborik

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After much speculation, TSN’s Darren Dreger tweets that the Ottawa Senators and Los Angeles Kings have agreed to a deal that will send Marian Gaborik and Nick Shore from LA to Ottawa for Dion Phaneuf and Nate Thompson. The deal will also see Ottawa absorb 25% of Phaneuf’s cap hit. The trade call was confirmed by the league at 9:14 CST per a tweet from TSN’s Bob McKenzie.

McKenzie tweeted out earlier that “something appears to be done,” but players involved were still competing in their respective games. McKenzie tweeted even earlier that Phaneuf had been pulled from the lineup during the Ottawa-Pittsburgh contest so the trade could get done. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman also confirmed the speculation, tweeting that the teams were working on a deal.

Phaneuf still has three years left on his 7-year, $49MM deal at the end of the season. With 25% of the deal eaten by the Senators, Ottawa will save $4MM tweets TSN’s Frank Seravalli. The Kings will see a cap hit of $5.25MM.

McKenzie was the first to report that a deal was being worked between LA and Ottawa. Dreger was the first to report the actual deal that involved Gaborik and Shore for Thompson and Phaneuf. 

Blackhawks Notes: Bowman, Crawford

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FanRag’s Craig Morgan takes aim at Chicago Blackhawks general manager Stan Bowman as the reason for  Chicago’s dizzying descent this season. After a 6-1 loss to lowly Arizona last night, the Blackhawks are not only staring down their first playoff-less season since 2007-08, but a crack at their first losing season since 2006-07. Morgan writes that after six straight losses, the Hawks are 10 points behind Minnesota for the final wild card spot. While there are whispers that head coach Joel Quenneville is in trouble, it’s Bowman, Morgan believes, who should face the brunt of the firing squad.

There are rumors swirling that Quenneville’s job could be in jeopardy if the Hawks don’t snap out of this funk soon. The timeworn clichés of “he’s lost the team” and “he isn’t using players properly” are the dullest forms of the shallow analysis littering social media.

If you go one level deeper you’ll find the real problems.”

What isn’t a secret is that Chicago has struggled to replenish the pipeline with talent following drafts that haven’t produced the players necessary to keep the Hawks at a top level (Nick Schmaltz and Alex DeBrincat are exceptions to this). Some of this is due to picks being traded for Cup runs, which is understandable. But mining the later rounds for NHL talent to supplant what is lost at the pro level is the only way a team can stay afloat. Many players the Hawks were counting on, namely Ryan Hartman, have struggled after showing promise last season.

Worse for the Hawks, captain Jonathan Toews’ struggles continue and the move to get Brandon Saad, who is also struggling, was supposed to help Toews. The mismanagement of personnel, Morgan writes, has seen a flux of talent leave via trade, which is on Bowman. Though he’s been deft in walking the tightrope that is the cap, it seems that the luck may be running out.

All that remains to be seen is who pays for those struggles once the season is over.

  • NBC Sports’ Adam Gretz believes the Blackhawks have hit “rock bottom” as he reports that the 6-1 loss against Arizona may have buried a team so many thought were due to rebound. Gretz points to the goaltending conundrum, where the loss of Corey Crawford has certainly hurt the team between the pipes. Backup goalie Anton Forsberg was yanked after the third goal and Jeff Glass, despite his inspiring ascent to the NHL, hasn’t been the answer either. Even if Crawford would return, Gretz doesn’t see much of a chance for Chicago to make up the ground necessary to make the playoffs. The Sun-Times Mark Lazerus believes that even if he’s better, Crawford shouldn’t be rushed back in what he dubbed a “lost season.”

Atlantic Notes: Draper, Lecavalier, Eichel

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The Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James sat down with Detroit Red Wings special assistant (to the general manager) Kris Draper and talked scouting and development with the forward who played in Detroit from 1993-2011. The topic ranged from his assessment of the current squad to his optimism about the progress of prospects Dennis Cholowski and Michael Rasmussen. On the current team, Draper was complimentary about their fight, and stopped short of rooting for them to lose to help the team’s draft odds:

Listen, I know they are going to play hard and do everything they can to make the playoffs. They basically want to screw up our draft. Here we are talking about Rasmus Dahlin, a kid that potentially is going to be a franchise defenseman — they don’t care about that. They want to win. But in the end, for us to get better, we have to draft really well and then we have to find some gems.

St. James asked a follow-up question, wondering if the 2004 Selke Trophy winner would admit he was pulling for competitive, one-goal losses, but he wouldn’t bite. Draper works directly for Ken Holland, and he’s certainly a name to watch should Detroit and Holland part ways. Draper scouts both amateur and pro talent and is involved with team strategy according to the team’s site. But his greatest asset is his connection to the past, as the Red Wings have been very loyal to those who have worn the Winged Wheel. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Detroit go to a trusted name if Holland steps away–whether it’s Draper or assistant general manager Ryan Martin. The vast majority of Detroit fans are clamoring for the return of Yzerman–considered one of the best managers in the league and who was blocked by Holland when offered a chance to be the GM. His return seems unlikely, as Yzerman built the Lightning into a powerhouse. If Yzerman returned, he would have to endure an arduous rebuild in Hockeytown, saddled down by many unmovable contracts.

  • The Tampa Bay Lightning former captain Vincent Lecavalier’s #4 tonight, Lecavalier was the team’s #1 overall choice in the 1998 NHL draft and played fourteen seasons with the Bolts before being bought out after the 2012-13 season. Lecavalier is still the franchise’s all-time goals leader (383) and still holds the record for most points in a single season (108) back in 2007-08. Lecavalier’s number joins Martin St. Louis’ #26 in the Amalie Arena rafters.
  • Buffalo Sabres star Jack Eichel was injured after he fell awkwardly during the first period tonight and did not return. It appeared to be a right ankle or right leg injury. Despite a dreary season in Buffalo, Eichel has 53 points in 54 games (22-31), showing again the immense talent he possesses on a squad struggling to find its way. Though the team is positioned for a top pick in the coming draft, losing Eichel to any significant injury is just another negative to an already tough season for Sabres fans.

Trade Candidates: Mike Green

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

The Red Wings desperately needed a trade chip as Hockeytown stares at another likely season without a playoff appearance. Mike Green fits that role, has been healthy, and one of the leaders on the scoresheet this season for an offensively starved Red Wings squad. Green is also the lone Detroit All-Star. For a team seeking prospects and picks, any additional positive with Green can only help.

Contract

Green is in the final year of a three-year, $18MM deal ($6MM AAV). He does have a no-trade clause, but most pundits agree that for the right team, he’ll waive it for a chance at the Stanley Cup.

2017-18

Green is on pace for his best season in Motown. After a hot start with 11 points in his first 10 games, Green cooled but has still been the best producer on what is a very thin blue line. In his last ten games, Green has just one goal and three assists and had a brutal game against Chicago, being on the ice for four of the five Blackhawk goals. Though he’s known for being an offensive defenseman, Green is weak in his own end, which has been apparent on a Red Wings squad that suffers defensively. A glimpse into his advanced stats and it tells a story of a defenseman logging top minutes for a below average team. One of his liabilities this season has been turning the puck awful in bad spots–often leading to scoring chances or goals.

Green brings a right hand shot from the point and is a mainstay on what was a resurgent Red Wings power play. As of late, Detroit has struggled but Green’s crisp passing and offensive prowess is a major asset.

Season Stats

48 GP, 5 goals, 21 assists, 26 points, -5 rating, 26 PIM, 22:35 ATOI, 46.8 CF%,

Potential Suitors

His former team, the Washington Capitals, come to mind right away as there would be comfort there with some familiar faces on the bench. Tampa Bay is another option, as they’re certainly gearing up for what should be a long run and adding Green to an already strong blue line would only strengthen an already formidable corps. Vegas, as Craig Custance pointed out, has a “ton of picks” and former Washington general manager George McPhee drafted Green back in 2004.

One other team to keep in mind–the Chicago Blackhawks. Though at this point it may be a longshot due to their struggles, the Red Wings could ease the burden of the cap hit by absorbing 50% of it to grab either a prospect or a draft pick. There’s no secret that Chicago needs a few more pieces on the blue line and Green’s offensive upside could be of help, especially for a power play that has been abysmal this season.

Likelihood of a Trade

It’s not if he’ll be traded but when. There are a lot of question marks in Detroit–first and foremost being the future of Ken Holland. Though not in it for the rebuild, Holland’s hand has been forced as its evident the Wings are nowhere near a playoff team or contender. Holland is also in the final year of a contract with no talks of an extension. In the salary cap era, Holland has been reluctant to trade and when he has, the returns have often been underwhelming. The Red Wings need as many high picks as they can get and unless the market dictates it, it will be tough to pry a first round pick away for him. Second and third round picks seem the likeliest options for him, if not a prospect as well. Holland needs to be creative and Green provides his best chance at a nice return.

All that remains to be seen is whether it’s closer to the deadline or sooner.

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