Entry Draft Notes: Avalanche, Stars, Flyers
The Colorado Avalanche seem to be at least entertaining the possibility of moving down in the draft. According to Mike Chambers of the Denver Post, the team is split internally over whether to select the best player available or to draft a dynamic defenseman, which is their biggest organizational need at the moment. Finding the proper balance between these two philosophies is always difficult, and ultimately, the scouts are the ones who need to believe in a particular player. It is interesting to note that Chambers doesn’t see defender Cale Makar being taken that early in the draft, and that the Avalanche might be “stuck” selecting another forward. Makar actually got votes for the top pick from one of TSN’s analysts, and there are many who believe he will hop into the top-5. Bob McKenzie actually had him slotted in at that #4 spot, so it’s a bit difficult to determine what the Avalanche are thinking here.
If the organization did decide to trade to a lower pick, as director of amateur scouting Alan Hepple says is “a scenario…that they’re ready for”, it would likely include a piece that will provide more immediate help for the team. After a 48 point season, that could mean plugging a hole at practically any position. It’s a lot to consider, especially in light of the Matt Duchene trade rumors which haven’t stopped swirling since they began halfway through the season. This article will only keep more eyes peeled on the team from Denver headed into Friday’s draft.
- The Flyers don’t seem to have the blinders on regarding their #2 selection, according to Sam Carchidi of the Philadelphia Inquirer. They are spending most of their time and energy focusing on the later rounds. This makes sense for any team with a top selection, but especially for Philadelphia who will almost certainly draft whichever of Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier remains. The team is heavily invested in looking to load up on offensive talent, and with 11 picks in this year’s draft, they’ve set themselves up very well. One of the major criticisms for the team in recent drafting has been the over-emphasis on physicality and intangibles, while ignoring more dynamic offensive players. We’ll see if they can avoid that pitfall this weekend.
- The Stars look to be leaning away from the big Windsor forward Gabriel Vilardi, according to Sean Shapiro of NHL.com. He also speculates that Dallas is particularly high on the aforementioned Makar and HIFK’s shifty Miro Heiskanen. They look to be focusing on defense for another draft, and with their top-end offense it’s no wonder why. They just exposed Cody Eakin to Vegas because of their glut of center-men, and even though Vilardi is an exceptional, versatile forward – he’s not a need. Both Makar and Heiskanen were ranked in the top-5 final rankings by McKenzie, so it’s difficult to see Dallas moving from their #3 position.
Vegas Storming 1st Round Of Draft
The Vegas Golden Knights are in an odd position, where they control a strong negotiating position over teams who don’t want to lose valuable roster players. Vegas is under no obligation to comply with any requests, and can essentially extort other teams for maximum return. If Anaheim wants to protect Josh Manson, for example, Vegas will play hardball. They will do so for two reasons: first, the better the player, the more important he will be to a future Knights team, and two, they have no incentive not to take that player for anything less than an optimal return. GM George McPhee is already looking to have a better competitive jump-start than any previous NHL expansion team by a significant margin. And it doesn’t look as though he will opt out of choosing the best available players for anything short of a ransom. Some teams might be desperate enough to do so.
Vegas is already assumed to have three picks, and could easily snag more. They have their own pick at #6, and are believed to have side-deals with Columbus and the New York Islanders in order to acquire the #24 and #15 picks, respectively. Anaheim is definitely in discussions to keep Manson and possibly even Sami Vatanen, who they desperately tried to trade for value before Saturday’s roster freeze. It’s quite conceivable that picks are in play there, but Anaheim no longer has its 2017 first after trading it to Dallas for Patrick Eaves.
Other teams who will be desperate to keep players include Nashville, who would lose James Neal, Chicago, who have exposed Trevor van Riemsdyk, and San Jose, who could lose one of Paul Martin or David Schlemko. If those teams, or any other organization, really want to hang onto particular players, there’s a very real possibility they will need to surrender a top pick.
For historical reference, only one team has ever drafted with 5 first-round picks – the 1974 Montreal Canadiens. The last team who had 4 first-round picks was the 1999 New York Islanders, when they selected Tim Connolly at #5. If Vegas could amass yet another first round pick, or even two, it would put them in an incredibly enviable position headed into the Entry Draft. The importance of flash and showmanship is rarely overlooked in the City of Lights, and the team looks to continue that philosophy by embracing the saga that the expansion draft has become.
Islanders’ Perplexing Side-Deal With Vegas
As I briefly mentioned in a previous article, the New York Islanders decided to travel a very perplexing road with their protection list. They shielded only 3 forwards, and protected 5 defensemen, allowing a whole host of forwards to be claimed. These include Brock Nelson, Ryan Strome, Casey Cizikas, Nikolai Kulemin, and Josh Bailey at the upper end of the spectrum. Defenseman Calvin de Haan, who has reportedly has had difficulty coming to a deal with management on a new contract, is also left at Vegas’ disposal
What complicates matters is that Arthur Staple of Newsday has been insinuating that the Islanders have a deal in place to protect Nelson, Strome, and de Haan, while others, such as Darren Dreger, believes the deal only applies to forwards. NHL Numbers stated today that the protection agreement would protect only Bailey and Cizikas, which is easily the most disastrous deal of the group. From a pure value standpoint, Nelson, de Haan and Strome have far more value than either player. Staple believed yesterday evening that the Islanders were going to trade their 15th overall selection in order to push Vegas in a favorable direction. Even still, it doesn’t explain the particulars of the players protected.
John Tavares is an obvious keeper, and Andrew Ladd helped the offense in a big way after a rocky start. Anders Lee is coming off a phenomenal 34 goal season in only his 3rd full outing. The defense revolves around Nick Leddy and Travis Hamonic, and despite his steps backward Johnny Boychuk is a big minute eater for the team. You could have made a case for Ryan Pulock over Boychuk, and made that quite convincingly, but it seemed inevitable that team would lose a defender no matter what. Boychuk did have an NMC, which complicated that matter. Considering that the team was 17th in goals against this past season, that wasn’t exactly a worst-case scenario.
Instead of taking the orthodox 4-4 route and protecting Nelson or Strome as well as Pulock or de Haan, or protecting all but one forward in a 7-3 scheme, the Islanders chose instead to protect a relative no-name in Adam Pelech. Pelech had a solid season, to be sure, but he is a bottom-pairing defenseman and doesn’t project as a difference maker. By opting to leave these players exposed, they take a large aspect of the decision making out of their own hands. GM Garth Snow sacrificed a first round pick and a certain degree of autonomy to protect two forwards, when they could instead have done that on their own. If the end goal was to entice Vegas into selecting Thomas Hickey, they could have done so without the bizarre protection structure. This isn’t even delving into the insanity of surrendering a first-round selection to protect one mid-level player over another.
All in all, the Islanders and GM Garth Snow have stolen the show today for most bewildering decision. Unless the deal with Vegas is far more encompassing than it appears at the moment, they are looking to lose a solid contributor and a 1st-round pick when both could have been avoided.
The original article incorrectly linked Dylan Strome.
Tortorella, Blue Jackets Discuss Extension
Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch reports that Jackets’ head coach John Tortorella has spoken with Columbus management about an extension. The Blue Jackets’ 108 point season in 2016-17 shocked nearly everyone, setting the franchise record for most points in a season. They also had the second longest winning streak in NHL history, at 14-0-0, before settling back into a more pedestrian clip. They were felled by the eventual champions from Pittsburgh in an incredibly disadvantageous divisional matchup in the first round. Still, Tortorella turned the team around to see 16 more wins overall while guiding the growth of many standouts, such as rookie Zach Werenski and sudden goal-scoring force Cam Atkinson.
Tortorella coached the 2003-04 Tampa Bay Lightning to a Game 7 victory over the Calgary Flames in the Stanley Cup Final to earn his only championship behind the bench. He coached for 4 seasons with the New York Rangers and 1 disappointing season in Vancouver before landing in Columbus. Tortorella is league-renowned for his abrasive demeanor in press conferences and preaching a hard-nosed style of play. There is a solid chance Tortorella takes home the Jack Adams at the NHL Awards – he is nominated alongside Toronto’s Mike Babcock and Edmonton’s Todd McLellan.
If Tortorella were extended, it is unclear for how many years the contract would be. His current deal expires at the end of the 2017-18 season, and he is still being compensated by the Canucks after his termination there. Portzline suggests that a contract could be in excess of $2 MM.
Vegas Holding Steady On Trade Front
According to Vegas GM George McPhee, the team has not yet made any transactions. NHL.com’s Dan Marrazza explains McPhee is reluctant to finalize any movement until the overall situation becomes clearer. Lost in all the frantic floundering leading up to the roster freeze yesterday and the release of protection lists this morning, Vegas still needs to ice a cohesive team. Although they certainly have a vision of what the team should look like, and have isolated certain players on their radar, the ultimate decisions are still far away. McPhee openly stated that he is willing to negotiate with other teams in order to keep their rosters intact. But as we have learned from potential side deals, the prices could be quite high.
The Las Vegas Review-Journal’s Steve Carp wrote that the Knights will “wait until late” to make their final selections in the case of a last-minute negotiation with another team. McPhee directly stated that they “don’t have anything” but that “they have lots of things lined up”. This somewhat contradicts the previously reported arrangement with Columbus to take a 1st round pick in exchange for not selecting Josh Anderson or Joonas Korpisalo. His purposely vague statements add fuel to the fire that has become league-wide speculation. With the NHL officially leaving all trade announcements under wraps until the official unveiling of the roster, all eyes will be on McPhee and his team. Insiders will undoubtedly try to force leaks of information, and will probably have success in doing so. Ultimately, however, it seems likely that McPhee has already essentially “closed” deals with other teams, but is being coy for the sake of spectacle.
The uncertainty that will come with not submitting a list until the final hour has to be frustrating to GMs around the league. It is understandable from Vegas’ perspective – they are attempting to put the best roster and deals together to give the franchise a solid starting point. But the drawn out process can only serve as a detriment to the other 30 franchises who will want to know with absolute certitude what their rosters are. McPhee seems to be using every available ounce of leverage to squeeze assets out of desperate organizations, and his refusal to openly confirm any trade agreements only helps his bargaining position.
Vegas’ official roster will be unveiled Wednesday June 21st, at the NHL Awards Ceremony.
NHL Salary Cap Raised To $75 Million
The NHL’s salary cap ceiling has been raised by $2 MM to $75 MM, according to NBC and various sources. The NHLPA voted on this decision back on June 16th according to TSN’s Pierre Lebrun, and the results of that vote resulted in next season’s total. The floor (or minimum) will be set at $55.4 MM.
The increase is slightly less than what many fans had hoped for, though the figure had been floated around for quite some time. This is only a 2.6% increase in the ceiling, which is less than the option the NHLPA could have opted for – an automatic 5% yearly increase. The stagnation in the cap overall is concerning to many teams who are very near the cap and/or have players due raises in the near future.
Many teams have been operating under the assumption that the ceiling would be around this number, so it shouldn’t affect any single organization too greatly. The team that will be most impacted is the Chicago Blackhawks, who are already over that ceiling. Teams such as the Washington Capitals and Tampa Bay Lightning highlight a group that will struggle to get a compliant roster in the near future with such little room to maneuver.
Roster Freeze Deadline Today
Today is a big day for the NHL and the expansion draft. Not only does it mark the last day that teams can trade, waive, or sign players, but today is also when teams submit their expansion draft protected lists.
Teams have until 3pm EST to trade, sign, or waive a player before the roster freeze takes effect. After that, no move is allowed until Thursday June 22nd at 8am EST. The roster freeze applies to all teams except the expansion Vegas Golden Knights.
Then those teams have until 5pm EST to submit their protected lists to the NHL. Presumably teams have figured out who they will protect, but last minute moves by other teams could throw a wrench into a team’s predictions.
Stay tuned in the coming hours for any breaking news before the roster cutoff. It’s bound to be a good one.
Coyotes Acquire Nick Cousins From Flyers
The Philadelphia Flyers have traded center Nick Cousins and the rights to Harvard goalie Merrick Madsen to the Arizona Coyotes for a 2018 fifth round pick and the rights to Brendan Warren. TSN’s Bob McKenzie tweeted the specifics that the Flyers received a 2018 fifth round pick and Warren, who is currently at the University of Michigan. Warren was the Coyotes’ 3rd round pick in 2015. Elliotte Friedman reported Madsen being part of the deal, and added that he was “no guarantee” to sign with the Flyers.
Cousins was taken in the third round by the Flyers back in the 2011 NHL draft. He appeared in 60 games and had 16 points (6-10). Cousins was likely to be exposed by the Flyers in the expansion draft, so it’s a situation where Flyers general manager Ron Hextall is getting something instead of losing him for nothing. PHR’s Seth Lawrence projected Cousins to be unprotected in the draft.
Craig Custance was the first to tweet a potential deal. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun tweeted that it was Cousins involved in the deal.
Expansion Primer: Tampa Bay Lightning
We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
Steve Yzerman fired the first shot in the pre-expansion draft trade market by acquiring Mikhail Sergachev from Montreal for Jonathan Drouin, a move that gave the Lightning flexibility both with the cap and their expansion protection list. It also filled a need with the Bolts on defense. With that in mind, it makes Yzerman and the Lightning’s decisions slightly easier as to who to protect and who to expose. But there are still some tough choices to make.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards: Steven Stamkos (NMC), Ryan Callahan (NMC), Nikita Kucherov, Alex Killorn, Vladislav Namestnikov, J.T. Brown, Erik Condra, Cedric Paquette, Ondrej Palat (RFA), Tyler Johnson
Defensemen: Victor Hedman (NMC), Jason Garrison, Anton Stralman, Braydon Coburn, Andrej Sustr (RFA), Slater Koekkoek, Jake Dotchin
Goaltender: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Kristers Gudlevskis (RFA)
Notable Exemptions
Mikhail Sergachev, Brett Howden
Key Decisions
Unloading Drouin certainly helped from a financial and expansion list aspect. This makes it somewhat easier for forwards to put on the protected list.
Ondrej Palat and Alex Killorn are both choices that benefitted from Drouin being moved. Killorn netted 19 goals while Palat will continue to get better. Stamkos and Callahan both have NMCs. Despite fighting injury and not matching his production from 2014-15, Johnson is too good of a talent to leave exposed.
It’s on defense where tougher decisions need to be made, and it will come down to three players. Hedman and Stralman will both be protected, Hedman because he has a no-movement clause and Stralman is key to the Lightning blueline. Jason Garrison and Braydon Coburn are both carrying heavier hits for the cap and will most likely be left alone when they’re exposed. Garrison could hypothetically be taken with his deal ending at the conclusion of the 2017-18 season, but the $4.6MM hit would probably scare Vegas away.
That leaves three choices to protect: Andrej Sustr, Jake Dotchin, and Slater Koekkoek. Sustr is a restricted free agent and won’t be able to command much in the way of money after having a down year. That doesn’t make him exempt from being exposed. If anything, seeing his numbers drop with a number of other options pounding on the door for the big club could make him the odd man out. However, he’s still an economical option and any leverage he had took a hit with the acquisition of Sergachev, who if scouting is correct, should find time on the Tampa blueline next season. But the problem with protecting Sustr is that Tampa would risk losing two young, and talented defensemen for nothing. In the same breath, would the Bolts want to possibly lose a steady defenseman who is only 26?
That leads to Dotchin and Koekkoek. Dotchin just turned 23, and registered 11 points in 35 games this season. The problem is, as Lightning blog Raw Charge pointed out, his sample size was limited compared to Koekkoek while being paired with Hedman. The 23-year-old Koekkoek logged 41 games over the past two seasons, but played strong for AHL affiliate Syracuse during the Calder Cup playoffs. Picking between them is essentially splitting hairs. Koekkoek appears to have the higher ceiling, and plays a cleaner game than Dotchin. Though they play different games, Yzerman might prefer a more disciplined, puck moving defenseman when choosing who to protect. At the same time, Dotchin plays a physical game, and can move the puck as well. He’s not afraid to muck it up, and provides a presence that protects his teammates on the ice–while still contributing on the score sheet. As Tampa Bay Times beat writer Joe Smith wrote, Dotchin has stood out to management, especially in the NHL and AHL during Syracuse’s Calder Cup Final run.
With two younger defensive prospects and after having a less than stellar season, predict Sustr to be exposed and Koekkoek protected. Don’t be surprised, as many others have written, if Yzerman pulls something off to keep all of his young defensemen so Dotchin remains in the fold.
Projected Protection List
F – Steven Stamkos (NMC)
F – Ryan Callahan (NMC)
F – Tyler Johnson (RFA)
F – Nikita Kucherov
F – Vladislav Namestnikov
F – Alex Killorn
F – Ondrej Palat (RFA)
D – Victor Hedman (NMC)
D – Anton Stralman
D –Slater Koekkoek (RFA)
Vasilevskiy is truly the only option to protect as 24-year-old netminder Kristers Gudlevskis is unlikely to be taken with other options presumably available from other teams. Of the decisions, it seems to be the least of Tampa’s worries.
The Lightning, despite missing the playoffs and sustaining injuries to one key player after another, still have a strong lineup that will absolutely compete next season. Peddling Drouin off certainly helped matters, but the third player to protect defensively is a tough decision to make. At the end of the day, though, Yzerman has shown skills deft enough to take a challenging situation and somehow make it work out. Don’t be surprised if he finds a way to do it again.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Expansion Notes: Phaneuf, McPhee, Final Decisions
TSN’s Pierre LeBrun tweets that nothing changed on Ottawa defenseman Dion Phaneuf‘s decision to waive his no-movement clause prior to the 5pm deadline today. This doesn’t mean, however, that he won’t be traded. Phaneuf is definitely in the mix to be dealt as Ottawa agonizes over who to protect and who to leave exposed as lists are due tomorrow at 5pm. Phaneuf has been the subject of trade rumors, and it was confirmed by general manager Pierre Dorion that he’s received calls about the 32-year-old defenseman. Some pundits thought Phaneuf might waive his NMC before the 5pm deadline, but with that now passed, it will be interesting to see if he’s one of many players shuttled to another team to ease the restrictions on the list.
- The USA Today’s Kevin Allen writes that Vegas general manager George McPhee has encouraged his staff to catch up on their sleep prior to the weekend as all NHL teams will have their protected lists submitted tomorrow. Noting that he only has 72 hours to put a team together, McPhee told Allen that teams have been straightforward with McPhee as to what they’re thinking and that it’s been in line with what McPhee and his staff expected. Allen reports that McPhee plans on informing each team who they plan on taking, so they can circle back to see if another deal can be worked out. Further, McPhee indicates that they are trying to build a balanced squad that can compete right away. He adds that they also want to acquire as many draft picks as possible to “expedite their building process.” McPhee also told Allen that even though he’s in his office at 6am Vegas time, his phone has been ringing non-stop with colleagues looking to make deals.
- On the other side of McPhee’s phone line are 30 general managers wrangling with what they’re going to do in anticipation of the draft. The AP’s Stephen Whyno spoke with general managers who are also losing sleep over the draft, albeit for different reasons. Minnesota’s Chuck Fletcher told Whyno that he often reminds himself at 3am that he can “only lose one player–go back to sleep.” Florida’s Dale Tallon remarked that “everyone’s a little nervous, a little reluctant” in anticipation of what will happen. Tampa general manager Steve Yzerman already responded by trading Jonathan Drouin to Montreal while New York and Colorado bought out the contracts of Dan Girardi and Francois Beauchemin respectively. Meanwhile, LeBrun tweets that deals could go down to the wire after speaking with Fletcher while Tampa Bay Times beat writer Joe Smith tweets that he sees Tampa Bay in potential talks with Fletcher since the Wild have a logjam at defense.