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Poll: Which Thanksgiving Playoff Teams Will Fall Short In 2021-22?

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American Thanksgiving arrived on Thursday and with it a shadow that looms large in the NHL. As teams return to the ice on Friday, they have the specter of an unavoidable trend to contend with. Over the past eight years, the Thanksgiving standings have been over 75% accurate at forecasting eventual playoff teams, predicting at least 12 of 16 spots on average. Even though American Thanksgiving only rolls around less than two months into the season, at about the 30% mark, three out of four teams in a playoff spot at that time will have retained their postseason berth when the season ends.

Last year, adjusting for “Thanksgiving” being a games played average given the league’s delayed start, it was even more predictive. 14 of 16 teams in a playoff position on February 21 winded up making the postseason, with only the Philadelphia Flyers and Dallas Stars missing out.

As much as teams outside the playoff picture on Thanksgiving fear missing out when the pattern has been so unrelenting, those clubs can at least be fueled by the desire to buck the trend. The greater concern is for those teams currently in postseason position – and not wanting to be one of the select few who blow their playoff spot by years end.

Below are the current league standings (by points percentage):

Eastern Conference

A1. Florida Panthers (.816)
M1. Carolina Hurricanes (.806)
M2. Washington Capitals (.725)
M3. New York Rangers (.711)
A2. Tampa Bay Lightning (.694)
A3. Toronto Maple Leafs (.690)
W1. Columbus Blue Jackets (.647)
W2. Boston Bruins (.625)
New Jersey Devils (.588)
Pittsburgh Penguins (.579)
Philadelphia Flyers (.556)
Detroit Red Wings (.500)
Buffalo Sabres (.421)
New York Islanders (.375)
Montreal Canadiens (.286)
Ottawa Senators (.265)

Western Conference

P1. Edmonton Oilers (.737)
C1. Minnesota Wild (.658)
P2. Calgary Flames (.725)
C2. Colorado Avalanche (.656)
P3. Vegas Golden Knights (.600)
C3. St. Louis Blues (.579)
W1. Winnipeg Jets (.579)
W2. Anaheim Ducks (.575)
Nashville Predators (.553)
San Jose Sharks (.553)
Dallas Stars (.529)
Los Angeles Kings (.500)
Chicago Blackhawks (.368)
Vancouver Canucks (.350)
Seattle Kraken (.342)
Arizona Coyotes (.250)

Which playoff teams do you think will be the exception to the rule that is the NHL’s Thanksgiving trend, losing their spot over the remaining 70% of the season? Comment with which teams outside the top eight in each conference could steal a spot.

[mobile users vote here]

 

Adam Henrique Out Day-To-Day With Upper-Body Injury

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Anaheim Ducks forward Adam Henrique is out with an upper-body injury and has returned to Anaheim from the team’s road trip, per a Ducks tweet. He’s listed as day-to-day.

Henrique is in the midst of a wonderful bounce-back campaign after spending some time last season in the press box. Through 19 games, he’s third on the Ducks with 15 points (six goals, nine assists). His ice time has seen a significant uptick, too, playing 17:16 per game compared to 16:02 last season.

The 31-year-old native of Brantford, Ontario, scored his 200th NHL goal earlier this season, his 11th full one in the NHL. Prior to last season’s shortened 56-game schedule, Henrique had scored 40 or more points in seven consecutive seasons.

He’s been a big part of what’s been a resurgent season for a younger, faster, and better Anaheim Ducks team. While it doesn’t sound like his injury is serious, they’ll miss him for the next little while. Anaheim faces a pair of Canadian teams in Ottawa and Toronto next, before some in-division matchups against Los Angeles and Vegas.

Canada To Close Border To Unvaccinated Athletes

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As Coronavirus concerns persist, the clock is ticking for unvaccinated NHLers to travel freely across the Canadian border. The Canadian Press reports that the country has decided to end its current leniency toward athletes and will enforce its national COVID protocol. Beginning January 15, unvaccinated athletes will not be permitted to cross the border.

The announcement of this policy change came on Friday, as Canadian Public Safety Minister Marco Mendocino stated that the border will be closing to unvaccinated and partially vaccinated athletes in the new year. It was Mendocino who worked through the details of the current national interest exemption, which allows unvaccinated professional and amateur athletes to travel across the border under conditions, but they will now repeal that agreement with the NHL, as well as the MLB, NBA, and MLS. While the stated purpose of the change is to align with the next stage of Canada’s COVID battle by improving vaccination rates, the requirement applies to athletes of all nationalities.

Fortunately, this should have a negligible effect on the NHL overall. Commissioner Gary Bettman announced at the beginning of the season that only four players on NHL rosters were unvaccinated. That number may need updating given roster transactions, but this policy change will still be of no concern to more than 99% of players. While the league has never formally revealed the names of those initial four names, Detroit’s Tyler Bertuzzi and New Jersey’s Mackenzie Blackwood had been individually confirmed and, if still not fully vaccinated, would not be permitted to travel to Canada after January 15 and per NHL rules could be suspended by their teams for those absences. However, those are the few cases of concern out of hundreds of NHL players, making this change of little consequence to the league.

Government Of Quebec Talks With NHL About Potential Nordiques Return

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On this week’s edition of Sportsnet’s 32 Thoughts intermission segment, Jeff Marek reported “public musings” from Quebec premier Francois Legault about the revival of the Quebec Nordiques, who played their last NHL season in 1994-95 before relocating to Denver as the Colorado Avalanche.

It continues what’s been a long-running push to bring NHL hockey back to Quebec City, but at virtually every point, the NHL has remained uninterested. While it’s unknown if their stance as changed, Legault has said publicly this week that the Quebec government plans to meet with commissioner Gary Bettman.

It’s strong messaging from Legault, who Marek reports went on to say that the government of Quebec would be willing to invest their capital in a project that would see the Nordiques return to Quebec. Marek notes that this project would be a consortium — rather, not a single investor or group that would be financially responsible for funding the team.

In terms of recent history, it seems unprecedented that a provincial government would provide significant financial backing for a professional sports team.

Marek reports that NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly confirms that he’s spoken over the phone with Legault, and while Daly admits dialogue may continue, he says “[the league] is obviously pleased with what we have right now.”

It’s worth noting that Quebec City does have a suitable venue in place. The Videotron Centre, which opened in September 2015, has a capacity of 18,259 for ice hockey. That’s greater capacity than highly regarded NHL arenas such as Madison Square Garden, the fresh-off-the-press UBS Arena, T-Mobile Arena, and TD Garden.

Three New York Islanders Added To COVID Protocol

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Just under two hours ahead of the New York Islanders’ home opener against the Calgary Flames, Anthony Beauvillier, Adam Pelech, and Andy Greene were added to the NHL’s COVID protocol, per Newsday’s Andrew Gross.

It’s an extremely tough situation for the team, which now has six total players in COVID protocol. Josh Bailey, Anders Lee, and Ross Johnston were added over the past week. Their number one defenseman, Ryan Pulock, is on injured reserve.

The Islanders recalled forwards Richard Panik and Andy Andreoff as well as defensemen Grant Hutton and Paul LaDue today from the AHL’s Bridgeport Islanders. Hutton, along with Robin Salo, who the Islanders recalled earlier, could make his NHL debut.

Losing Beauvillier and Pelech, in particular, is tough to swallow for the Islanders, who sit third-last in the Eastern Conference with a 5-6-2 record after their season-opening 13-game road trip. Beauvillier is one of the team’s top point producers with three goals and seven points through 13 games this season. While Pelech has just two assists, he’s counted on for his defense, not his scoring ability. He’s averaged 21:07 per game and with a +4 rating, his minutes will be tough to replace.

Injury Notes: Hayes, Golden Knights, Carrier

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Center Kevin Hayes didn’t take warmups and isn’t playing for the Philadelphia Flyers on Thursday night against the Tampa Bay Lightning, as originally reported by the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Sam Carchidi. Head coach Alain Vigneault originally expected Hayes to play and he nor the team have yet to offer an update on Hayes’ absence. Max Willman was recalled from Lehigh Valley today under emergency conditions and is in the lineup for that game. Hayes has two points in two games this season after missing the team’s first 12 games while recovering from offseason core muscle surgery.

More injury notes from around the NHL:

  • The injury parade continues for the Vegas Golden Knights, as The Athletic’s Jesse Granger reports defenseman Shea Theodore is unlikely to suit up for Thursday’s contest against the Detroit Red Wings. Theodore fell awkwardly during the Knights’ last game Tuesday against the Carolina Hurricanes, a 4-2 loss. The team hasn’t moved Theodore to injured reserve, but he joins Alec Martinez on the list of Golden Knights defensemen absent from the lineup. However, Granger notes that Zach Whitecloud is “progressing quickly” and could potentially suit up for the Detroit game.
  • Per Nashville Predators head coach John Hynes, defenseman Alexandre Carrier could return to the team’s lineup Saturday versus the Montreal Canadiens. Carrier isn’t on injured reserve, but he’s been out of the lineup for the past week with an undisclosed injury. In 13 games this season, the 25-year-old has five points while averaging nearly 20 minutes per game.

Snapshots: Islanders, Norlinder, Fix-Wolansky

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The New York Islanders were dealt a tough hand to start the season with a 13-game road trip, but things aren’t exactly looking up with the news that defenseman Ryan Pulock will miss the next four to six weeks with a lower-body injury. The Islanders sit with a 5-6-2 record, and while it’s certainly recoverable, especially considering their track record, they find themselves in an extremely competitive division with seven teams ahead of them. With a defense core that’s looked troubling at times, the team could look to get outside help via the form of a trade. The Athletic’s Arthur Staple says that while the team could put faith into their staff in AHL Bridgeport to help bridge the gap until Pulock’s return, there’s a variety of trade targets they could examine. While D-men who have experience playing on the right side aren’t usually available for trade, he lists Seattle’s Vince Dunn as a potential option who could still prove to pay dividends on the power play once Pulock returns, a role that hasn’t been filled properly since the departure of Devon Toews.

More from around the NHL:

  • Montreal Canadiens prospect Mattias Norlinder is set to make his NHL debut on Thursday. The defenseman is healthy after a preseason injury sidelined him up until the last week, where he spent three games with the AHL’s Laval Rocket on a conditioning stint. The 64th overall pick in 2019 is expected to play on the second pairing alongside veteran David Savard, who’ll give him what should be a reliable defensive partner to open his NHL career.
  • It’s another prospect returning to the lineup as Columbus’ Trey Fix-Wolansky is making his season debut for AHL Cleveland tonight after an eight-month absence. The Hockey Writers’ Mark Scheig notes that the forward had ACL surgery in March. Fix-Wolansky wasn’t picked until the seventh round in 2018, likely due to his 5′ 8″ height, but proceeded to light up the WHL the following season with the Edmonton Oil Kings, scoring 37 goals and 102 points in just 65 games. After having an impressive first professional go-around with Cleveland last year as well, look for Fix-Wolansky to get an NHL look sooner rather than later.

Snapshots: COVID, Olympics, Canucks

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The postponement of the Ottawa Senators’ upcoming slate of games amidst a Coronavirus outbreak in the locker room has certainly raised some flags across the league. TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that many are concerned not only about the ongoing crisis the in Ottawa, but about the frequency of cases popping up around the league. With more than 99% of players and all coaches and staff vaccinated, it is alarming how frequently individuals are being forced to enter the NHL’s COVID Protocol. There was talk earlier this season of reducing testing due to many of those in the protocol being asymptomatic, but in Ottawa and recently in San Jose as well, those sidelined by COVID have in fact been very symptomatic. The league had no choice but to postpone Senators games as the roster had been depleted by the sickness sweeping through the locker room and keeping players off the ice for far longer than just a simple formality might for others in the protocol. As Dreger points out though, the league cannot afford multiple postponements such as this. On one hand, the season is already longer than usual due to the Olympic break and on the other the league cannot take the revenue hit of missed games after two consecutive shortened seasons. As of right now, the only steps being taken by the league to combat the COVID issue is to recommend boosters to its players and personnel. However, re-enacted restrictions could be coming down the line if cases continue at this rate.

  • The Olympics could be at risk if the NHL is unable to control their COVID cases and postponements continue. However, Pierre LeBrun does not believe that this conversation is being had just yet. The NHL and NHLPA agreed to terms – with each other and with the IIHF – to return to the Winter Games this year and that remains the plan. However, there is a January 10 opt-out date should the league decide that they need the currently-scheduled break to make up games postponed due to COVID. LeBrun says that there is no hard number that would trigger the NHL to pull out of the Olympics, but it will have to be an ongoing discussion between the league and players’ association. For now, he states that the two sides just met recently to discuss Olympic plans and are moving forward as planned.
  • Also moving forward as planned: the Vancouver Canucks. Patience is wearing thin amongst the fan base as the Canucks are off to another rough start this season, winning just five of their first 16 games and holding a bottom-five scoring differential league-wide. Despite adding more talent this off-season to an already-healthy payroll and largely avoiding injuries to key players thus far, the Canucks again look like they are far from a contender. Dreger reports that GM Jim Benning was called to meet with ownership about a path forward and they ultimately decided… to stay the course. Ownership apparently still believes in the plan that Benning and coach Travis Green have for the team, even though it has yielded few results thus far. Both sides will continue to preach patience to a rabid fan base that is growing tired of continued mediocrity. If things don’t change in Vancouver this season, it won’t be long until ownership joins the malcontents.

Ottawa Senators Place Drake Batherson In COVID-19 Protocol

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Per the team’s communications department, the Ottawa Senators placed forward Drake Batherson in the NHL’s COVID-19 Protocol on Sunday.

Batherson becomes the fifth Sens forward and tenth Sens player overall now listed as non-roster due to COVID-19. It’s a tough loss for an already depleted Senators team, as Batherson leads them in scoring with 16 points in just 14 games.

Andrew Agozzino is the team’s only extra healthy forward on the active roster, and he’ll make his season debut for Ottawa Sunday afternoon against the Calgary Flames. Ottawa is now down to just five forwards in AHL Belleville under active contract, but they have three other forwards on loan who could theoretically be recalled to the team in an emergency.

Depending on how head coach D.J. Smith shuffles the team’s lines on Sunday, offseason acquisition Zach Sanford could get a look in the top-six in place of Batherson. Sanford has just three points in 14 games and hasn’t quite been what Senators fans had hoped.

They’ll need increased minutes and performance from Joshua Norris and new captain Brady Tkachuk to help the team stay afloat.

Minor Transactions: 11/14/21

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There’s a six-game slate in the NHL tonight on this Hall of Fame weekend, but transaction action keeps rolling along at lower levels of the game as well. As COVID rears its ugly head again, affecting the rosters of multiple teams this season, teams in the AHL and ECHL have had to adjust their rosters as they lose players to their NHL affiliates. Keep track of today’s minor transactions right here.

  • As the Ottawa Senators deal with the NHL’s worst COVID outbreak this season, the AHL’s Belleville Senators made a minor trade yesterday, acquiring forward Chris Wilkie from the Rockford IceHogs in exchange for future considerations. Wilkie, a product of Colorado College, was originally a sixth-round draft pick of the Florida Panthers back in 2015. This is his second professional season, and he notched a goal and assist in his Belleville debut yesterday.
  • Defenseman Alec Rauhauser was returned to the ECHL’s Greenville Swamp Rabbits today after being loaned to the AHL’s San Jose Barracuda. Rauhauser, an undrafted free agent, spent last season in the Florida Panthers organization after four seasons at Bowling Green State University. He made his AHL debut in one game with the Syracuse Crunch but spent the majority of the season in Greenville. In 52 games over two seasons, Rauhauser has 13 ECHL points.
  • The AHL’s Lehigh Valley Phantoms recalled forward Charlie Gerard from the ECHL’s Reading Royals today. Gerard is in his second professional season after a four-year run at Minnesota State University-Mankato and showed promise last season with 34 points in 49 games in the ECHL with the Utah Grizzlies. Now with the Phantoms on a professional contract, he’ll get his chance to show what he can do within the Flyers organization.

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