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Snapshots: Murray, Sceviour, Plager

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Matt Murray is finally going to make his 2016-17 debut, it might just have to wait a few more days.  Even though the goaltender has been “going full-speed now for almost two weeks” he won’t start this Saturday versus the Philadelphia Flyers. Instead, according to Dave Molinari of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Murray will get one of the west coast back-to-back games on Wednesday and Thursday. The Penguins visit the Ducks and then the Kings in some inter-conference action.

Murray is coming back from a broken hand he suffered during the World Cup when he backstopped the young guns (Team North America) in the tournament. While the Penguins claimed Mike Condon off waivers earlier in the season to replace Murray, they’re hesitant to lose any of the three solid pieces they have in net. They view them all as considerable assets, and don’t want to lose any for nothing.

  • Colton Sceviour will be moved up in the lineup according to George Richards of the Miami Herald. After getting a season-high 15 minutes in the Panthers latest loss at the hands of the Maple Leafs on Thursday night, the former Dallas Star will replace Kyle Rau on the second line. The Panthers are without Jonathan Huberdeau, Nick Bjugstad and Jussi Jokinen due to various injuries and have had to move pieces in and out of their top-six in recent games. While Jon Marchessault is thriving on the top line, the unit of Rau-Trocheck-Smith weren’t as effective against the Maple Leafs.
  • The St. Louis Blues will retire number 5 in honor of Bob Plager this season. Plager has been with the club for almost 50 years since his addition as a player on June 6th, 1967, holding almost every position possible: player, head coach, director of scouting, director of player development and others.  Plager’s #5 will join Al MacInnis (#2), Bob Gassoff (#3), Barclay Plager (his brother and #8), Brian Sutter (#11), Brett Hull (#16) and Bernie Federko (#24) among retired numbers for the Blues.

Oilers Name McDavid Team Captain

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As expected, the Edmonton Oilers have announced that Connor McDavid will be the team’s captain for the 2016-17 season and likely well beyond. At just 19-years-old, McDavid becomes the youngest team captain in NHL history, as the team tweeted, edging out Vincent Lecavalier for the honor by about six weeks.

The top overall selection in the 2015 draft, McDavid has the potential to be a generational talent. McDavid was one of only five players last season to average better than a point-per-game, tallying 48 in 45 contests as a rookie. It’s likely had he not missed nearly half the season due to injury that he would have been an easy choice for the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie.

Despite his youth, McDavid appears perfectly suited for the role of captain. He served in the same capacity for both his junior club, the Erie Otters, and for Team North America at the World Cup.

In addition to giving McDavid the “C,” the Oilers also appointed Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle and Milan Lucic as alternates.

While it’s a near-certainty McDavid will soon be one of, if not the best hockey player on the planet, it remains to be seen whether he can finally lead the long-suffering Oilers back to the postseason in 2016-17. The Oilers have long boasted tremendous talent and skill but have failed to reach the playoffs in a decade. After several high-profile offseason acquisitions and with their best player now leading the way, Edmonton looks poised to make a jump in the standings.

Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Gostisbehere, Dumoulin

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Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we continue in the Metro.

Shayne Gostisbehere (Philadelphia): Gostisbehere exploded upon the scene in 2015-16, netting 17 goals and 46 points – in just 64 games – to lead all rookies in those categories. The former Union College defenseman quickly became one of the league’s most exciting blue liners and earned a spot on the Team North America entry in the World Cup.

The agents for this year’s top remaining unsigned RFA defenders – Hampus Lindholm and Rasmus Ristolainen – are pointing to the recently-signed and massive extension signed by Aaron Ekblad as the target. Ekblad of course inked an eight-year, $60MM deal with Florida and while Lindholm and Ristolainen are probably not at the level the Panthers blue liner is, they will still likely pocket something in the vicinity of $6MM annually when they finally sign.

Chances are Gostisbehere is also going to use the Ekblad deal as a comparable. Ekblad hasn’t produced offense at the same rate as Gostisbehere (0.72 PPG for “The Ghost” versus 0.47 PPG for Ekblad) but is a former #1 overall pick and projects as a perennial Norris Trophy candidate.

It’s likely the Lindholm and Ristolainen deals will actually serve as a better framework for a new contract for Gostisbehere. Assuming they each get something close to $6MM per, it’s fair to guess the Flyers young blue liner will also land in the same neighborhood.

Brian Dumoulin (Pittsburgh): Dumoulin tallied just 16 points in 79 contests and failed to net a single goal in 2015-16. Ordinarily those numbers wouldn’t be reflective of a guy who is going to cash in but Dumoulin showed in the postseason he has more to offer the Penguins. In 24 playoff games, Dumoulin scored two goals and eight points while averaging 21:31 of ice time per game. If he can carry over that level of play into the 2016-17 regular season, Dumoulin will surely be rewarded handsomely on his next contract.

A similar comparable could be Dmitry Orlov, who eventually signed a one-year deal with Washington worth $2.57MM. Orlov has clearly been a superior offensive producer, averaging 0.30 PPG during his career while Dumoulin has averaged just 0.19. But at 25, Dumoulin is just entering his prime and as we saw in the playoffs, he is capable of producing more offense in the right role. Currently he is listed opposite Kris Letang on the Penguins top blue line pair which could result in a higher point total for Dumoulin.

Even if Dumoulin doesn’t produce much offensively, there is still plenty of value in a steady and reliable performer on the back end. If both team and player elect for a one or two-year bridge deal, an AAV close to $2.5MM would seem fair. A long-term deal buying out free agent years could take the price up north of $3MM annually.

World Cup Notes: Gaborik, Getzlaf, Babcock

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After Marian Gaborik was given a timeline of eight weeks to rehab his leg injury, sustained in Team Europe’s semi-final victory, head coach Ralph Krueger has replaced him with Mikkel Boedker in the lineup. While Boedker can be an effective player and has speed to burn, Krueger admits to Helene Elliott of the LA Times that it’ll be a step down from one of their leaders:

We’re losing some leadership and smarts on the puck that were exemplary.

Gaborik obviously is one of the most important players on Europe, with 933 games and 773 points under his belt in the NHL. The three-time forty-goal man put up his worst season last year while fighting injury, only scoring 12 goals in 54 games. The 34-year old will not be ready for the start of the season, making it even harder to bounce back after the career-worst campaign.

  • Team Canada hit the ice this morning before the first game of the finals versus Team Europe, and every player was present including Ryan Getzlaf, who according to Pierre LeBrun missed practice yesterday. The Ducks forward was given a “maintenance day” in preparation for the three-game series, as he’s battling a few small nagging injuries. Now 31, the big center doesn’t bounce back as easily as he did when he was young, but has still played in 77 games in each of the last three seasons. While he’s a big part of Team Canada, the Ducks are hoping he comes back fully healthy, as a bounce-back year from him and Corey Perry is integral for a successful season.
  • While the talk swirls about the NHL not heading to the Olympics in 2018, especially now that the World Cup has been a success, one influential voice sounds unconvinced. When asked about the difference between the two events, Team Canada head coach Mike Babcock said “The World Cup is great, but it’s not the Olympics. Let’s not get confused.” As Chris Johnston of Sportsnet reports, the Maple Leafs coach would like to see the event spread across two cities so that only night games were played, while having only countries compete.  These changes would make it more like the Olympics, and would seem to be a future plan for the NHL’s tournament. If the league doesn’t go in 2018 (which it doesn’t look likely to), the World Cup will have to become the preeminent international event. Having Team North America and Team Europe prevents it from ever fully replacing the Olympics, despite their success as individual story lines.

Ekblad Practicing With Panthers

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Evidently the upper-body injury which prevented Aaron Ekblad from playing in either of Team North America’s final two games at the World Cup of Hockey is healing just fine. According to Alain Poupart, writing for the Panthers team site on NHL.com, Ekblad is back in Florida and was on the ice today doing some individual work.

Ekblad absorbed a hit from Team Finland’s Leo Komarov during North America’s first game of the round-robin portion of the tournament and was thought to have suffered a concussion as a result. However, it was later reported by Mark Spector of Sportsnet that was not the case and in fact was simply a neck injury.

The first overall selection in the 2014 draft, Ekblad is already one of the league’s best young defensemen and is a vital cog for Florida. He had a sensational debut campaign, scoring 12 goals and 39 points in 81 games and winning the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie for the 2014-15 season. Ekblad followed that up with an equally impressive sophomore year, potting 15 goals and assisting on 21 more.

The 20-year-old blue liner has been solid in his own end too with a plus-minus rating of +30 combined over his first two NHL seasons. Although plus-minus can be unreliable in gauging the quality of defensive play, Ekblad has performed well in the puck possession department, posting a career Corsi For % of 52.9% reinforcing the notion of Ekblad’s steady play in his own zone.

Central Notes: Wiercioch, Fleischmann, Jets Goalies

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The biggest hockey headline out of Colorado this summer was the unexpected departure of head coach and VP of operations Patrick Roy. Mike Chambers of The Denver Post told PHR in an earlier interview that his belief was that Roy insisted on acquiring a top defenseman this summer, perhaps at the cost of one of their top young forwards, but that GM Joe Sakic and his “support staff” wanted to stick with the core. In fact, the only blue line addition of note was the signing of free agent Patrick Wiercioch, who wore out his welcome in Ottawa and was not qualified as a RFA. But as Chambers writes, Weircioch may come to Colorado with little fanfare but his skill set is exactly what the Avalanche needs.

Wiercioch is a big defenseman – listed at 6-foot-5, 202 pounds – who can move the puck and contribute on the power play. Chambers also notes that the five-year veteran is a quality stick-handler and passer, which will hopefully help the team’s transition game. According to Chambers, Wiercioch was looking for a fresh start after five mostly disappointing seasons in Ottawa, and is looking forward to again playing in Colorado, where he played his college hockey for the University of Denver.

“Even before the trade deadline we were talking about what our avenues were. We both kind of decided if nothing were to happen, it’s not the end of the world because I have a wife and kid and it’s a tough transition to pick up and move for eight weeks.”

“But going into the summer I think we were both ready for the next chapter — for their organization and my career as well. It ended up being Colorado. When we looked at the options and the offers with more money, this was the franchise I really wanted to come play for. I really wanted to be excited about the opportunity here.”

Colorado agree to a one-year deal with Wiercioch worth $800K after which he will again become a RFA, thus giving the Avalanche additional contractual control. Wiercioch may not be the big name Roy wanted but he’ll have a tremendous opportunity to play a significant role for the Avalanche and could end up being a nice free agent bargain.

Other notes from the NHL’s Central Division:

  • As we noted yesterday, Tomas Fleischmann, who had agreed to a PTO with Minnesota, failed his physical. Mike Russo of the Star Tribune provides a further update saying the Czech-born forward will not be attending camp with the Wild, according to GM Chuck Fletcher. Neither head coach Bruce Boudreau nor Fletcher specified what issue caused the failed physical though Russo speculated it might be a recurrence of blood clots that Fleischmann had been diagnosed with in the past. Fletcher said about the veteran winger: “He’s such a good person, it’s unfortunate. So I hope he catches on somewhere else. It’s just a disappointment. I like him enough that I want to see him succeed somewhere.” Russo inferred from these comments that whatever the issue, it doesn’t seem as if it would necessarily keep Fleischmann from playing elsewhere, if another opportunity presents itself.
  • Ondrej Pavelec and young Connor Hellebuyck are expected to compete for the starters job between the pipes for the Jets this season. Both goalies participated in the World Cup of Hockey – Pavelec for the Czech Republic and Hellebuyck as part of Team North America – and say that experience has helped them as they prepare to battle for the #1 job, writes Mitchell Clinton for the Jets team site on NHL.com. Pavelec, who finished with a disappointing 90.4% save percentage in 33 games – 31 of which were starts – and would appear to be behind Hellebuyck entering camp. The rookie, who was a two-year starter at the University of Massachusetts-Lowell, made 26 starts for the Jets and recorded a save percentage of 91.8%. Michael Hutchinson, who has started 68 contests over the last two seasons, is under contract with Winnipeg for two more years and is a solid backup should the Jets choose Hellebuyck as the starter and find a way to move Pavelec’s contract.

 

 

Matt Murray Out 3-6 Weeks With Broken Hand

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According to Dave Molinari of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Penguins’ goaltender Matt Murray will be out for three to six weeks after breaking his hand at the World Cup. Murray was pulled in team North America’s loss to Russia on Monday night, and originally thought he had just jammed his thumb.  He even said he was willing to play against Sweden if they needed him to, despite the pain he felt in his hand.

Murray, 22, was expected to head into camp with a real shot at taking over the #1 job in Pittsburgh from Marc-Andre Fleury after a wonderful playoff performance, but will now just hope to make it back by November. In 21 playoff games en route to the Stanley Cup, Murray went 15-6 with a .923 save percentage and 2.08 goals against average. The Penguins regular season starts October 13th, just under three weeks away.

For all the trade rumor that surrounded Fleury this summer, perhaps GM Jim Rutherford was correct in keeping both goaltenders to start the season. He’ll now be able to turn to a veteran netminder who has been elite in the past and can keep the Penguins on track as they try to defend their championship. It will be interesting to see what happens when Murray returns, especially if Fleury is playing well.

Snapshots: McKenzie’s ’17 Draft Prospects, ‘Jackets, North America

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It’s never too early to scout talent. Bob McKenzie released his preseason top 15 prospect list for the 2017 NHL Draft and the top slot wasn’t even close. Brandon Wheat Kings center Nolan Patrick is the clear #1 prospect, being voted the top prospect by ten out of ten scouts McKenzie spoke with. Though it’s not clearly as exciting as the Jack Eichel–Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews-Patrik Laine debates, the report on Patrick is his ability to score goals. But he doesn’t boast the same franchise type standing as McDavid, Eichel, Matthews or Laine. After Patrick, however, the draft seems to dip in terms of overall talent. McKenzie writes that the draft is “not as exciting a group” as years past.  Further, McKenzie reports that the top ten talent isn’t nearly as defined as in the past. McKenzie lists Patrick, D Timothy Liljegren, F Klim Kostin, F Maxime Comtois, F Eeli Tolvanen, F Gabe Vilardi, F Kristian Vesalainen, F Owen Tippett, D Cal Foote, and F Lias Andersson as the top ten best prospects in the 2017 Draft.

In other hockey news:

  • Blue Jackets captain Nick Foligno can’t wait to see the new talent make their way to Columbus writes Alison Lukan. Foligno was one of many Jackets to congratulate the prospects in Cleveland who captured the Calder Cup this past summer. Now, Foligno is ready to welcome any of those prospects who can make an impact in Columbus.

“If you’re going to come and help us, we’re going to welcome you with open arms. We’re excited to see who is going to rise to the occasion and come and help our group. But it’s my job to be competitive and push everybody. If you want to be here, then you’ve got to beat me.”

Lukan reports that after a disappointing 2015-16 season, the Jackets will look to their younger players to push for playing time and help the team improve this year.

  • Team North America captured the attention of the hockey world, and gave a glimpse of the future of the NHL writes the Chicago Tribune’s Chris Kuc. Canada coach Mike Babcock called the “young guns” team “one of the most exciting things of the tournament,” while saying that they would garner the attention of a whole new group of fans. Kuc described the North American team as the “darlings” of the tournament with a style of play that caused fans to experience “whiplash.” Amalie Benjamin adds that it was hockey at its “most brilliant, most entertaining, and most delightful.”

Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Johansen, Parayko, Teravainen

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Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we finish with the Central Division and move to the Metro.

Ryan Johansen (Nashville) – In Ryan Johansen, the Predators finally have that elusive #1 center they have lacked since the organization’s inception nearly two decades ago. In a rare “hockey trade” that benefited both parties, Nashville acquired Johansen from Columbus in exchange for Seth Jones, a potential franchise defenseman and something the Blue Jackets have sorely needed.

Johansen has tallied at least 60 points in each of the last three seasons and scored a career-best 71 as a 22-year-old during the 2014-15 campaign. On the downside, his goal scoring output has decreased from a career-high 33 in 2013-14 to 26 the following season and to just 14 in 2015-16. That’s likely the direct result of a shooting percentage of just 7.6%, a figure which was more than five points below the combined shooting percentage the two previous seasons. Simply converting shots at his normal rate would have resulted in a 24 – 25 goal campaign.

The Predators have done a marvelous job of locking up their core pieces to bargain long-term deals. Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, Craig Smith and Mattias Ekholm have all recently inked extensions with Nashville at AAVs below what each player could have received on the open market. The trade-off for higher salaries during RFA years is cost-certainty and buying out free agent years below market value. Expect Nashville to employ the same strategy with Johansen.

Sean Monahan and Nathan MacKinnon have each established themselves as 60-point producers and received extensions with an AAV in excess of $6MM. Aleksander Barkov, coming off a career-best 59-point season, signed a six-year, $35.4MM deal with Florida. All three, however, were coming off their ELCs while Johansen is entering the final season of his second contract. That means any long-term deal would buy out more free agent seasons and typically that tends to be more expensive. Based on the comparable deals and his proximity to free agency, a long-term contract for Johansen could well approach or even reach $7MM annually.

Colton Parayko (St. Louis) – Parayko came out of nowhere to earn a regular job on the Blues blue line and posted a solid scoring line of 9-24=33 in 79 contests as a rookie. He boasts a hard shot from the point and tremendous size at 6-foot-6 and 226 pounds. Currently, Parayko is skating in the World Cup as a member of Team North America, flashing his abilities on the international stage.

With only a single season of NHL experience, gauging Parayko’s potential value is difficult. However, if he approximates his 2015-16 production levels this upcoming season, the four-year, $19.5MM contract awarded to Sami Vatanen by the Ducks could prove to be a reasonable comparable.

Vatanen posted campaigns of 37 and 38 points in 2014-15 and 2015-16 respectively before inking his current deal. Like Parayko, Vatanen is also a right-handed defenseman, which is more difficult to find than their counterparts on the left side.

St. Louis could counter with Ryan Ellis as a comparable. Ellis signed a five-year, $12.5MM contract in October of 2014 following a 27-point campaign with the Predators. But most would argue Ellis is worth more than that AAV and consequently Parayko would be too. It’s also possible the Blues would prefer to go with a bridge contract with a lower AAV than Parayko would be able to get on a long-term deal.

Teuvo Teravainen (Carolina) – The Hurricanes took advantage of Chicago’s salary cap woes and in exchange for agreeing to take on the final season of Bryan Bickell’s $4MM-a-year-deal, were rewarded with the skilled Teravainen. Much was expected from the young Finn following the 2014-15 postseason that saw Teravainen record 10 points in 18 games as the Hawks won their third Stanley Cup in six seasons. While a 35-point campaign as a 21-year-old is solid, Teravainen’s skill suggests there is even more scoring potential.

It makes sense to stick with the Hurricanes when looking for a comparable since doing so offers insight to how the club values their RFAs. Earlier this summer, Carolina agreed to a six-year, $24MM extension with Swedish center Victor Rask. Rask was coming off a breakout campaign which saw the 23-year-old pivot post career-highs in both goals (21) and assists (27). More importantly, his first NHL season mirrored Teravainen’s in terms of production as Rask netted 11 goals and 33 points in 80 games for the Canes in 2014-15. If Teravainen follows the same path and boosts his offensive production into the 45-point range, a contract similar to that of Rask’s would seem a safe bet.

North America Injury Notes

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The young and talented Team North America is set to face Group B leader Sweden today, but they will do so without their starting goaltender. Penguins playoff hero Matt Murray was injured in the team’s last World Cup game against Russia and is currently being treated as day-to-day. The injury is to his thumb on his blocker hand, which makes it difficult for him to grip the stick and handle the puck. With NHL training camp right around the corner, the team, as well as the Pittsburgh brass, feels that those essential skills are worth a few days of rest and rehab.

For their final round robin game, which will determine whether they move on to the semifinals or head home, North America will go to Ducks goalie John Gibson, with Jets youngster Connor Hellebuyck backing him up. Gibson, in fact, has more pro experience than Murray and may be a better option for North America going forward. Murray has allowed five goals through two games with an .886 save percentage, so a fresh face starting in net might provide a boost for the team.

North America has other injury concerns as well:

  • Blue Jackets defenseman Ryan Murray is also dealing with an injury. While the exact details have not been disclosed, the young blue liner has developed a bit of an “injury-prone” reputation early in his hockey career. Although coach Todd McLellan expects Murray to play and has confirmed that he will at least skate in warm-ups, his status is a game time decision.
  • If Murray cannot play, North America will be forced to dress 13 forwards and five defenseman, with the Panthers’ Aaron Ekblad having already left the team with a neck injury. Rangers forward J.T. Miller would be pressed into action, and the defense would have to rely on some heavy minutes from each of their five members.

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