Did Anthony Mantha’s Playoff Performance Hurt His Free Agency Stock?

The Pittsburgh Penguins were bounced by the Philadelphia Flyers in Game 6 of their first-round matchup in dramatic fashion, losing a 1-0 game in overtime on a Cameron York goal. The seeing-eye shot found its way past Penguins goaltender Arturs Silovs and was a microcosm of the series for one player, Anthony Mantha. York was Mantha’s man on the play, and Mantha was two steps too late covering the point, allowing York to fire the game-winning goal. Mantha was invisible in the series, putting up one assist in six games to go along with a -5 and 20 PIM. The worst part of his play was that Mantha looked disinterested at times, missed assignments, took lazy penalties, and found himself largely chasing the game after a magical regular season. All in all, the playoffs may have cost Mantha millions of dollars.

It was just a month ago that the talk was about Mantha getting a four-year deal, with some folks throwing out numbers in the $5-6MM range. It seemed not only probable a month ago but quite likely after the 31-year-old posted 33 goals and 31 assists this season in 81 games. Mantha had been playing under a one-year, $2.5MM (plus $2MM in incentives) “prove it” contract, in the hopes of securing a lucrative contract this summer. However, those types of numbers ($5MM to $6MM) could very well be off the table after Mantha had a poor playoff showing this year. In fact, in 20 career NHL playoff games, Mantha has never scored a goal, tallying just seven assists. It’s a steep decline in production for a player who has four career 20+ goal seasons and averages 50 points per 82 regular-season games.

Mantha will still get some of his money this summer, as NHL general managers are about to see a windfall of cap space they haven’t seen in close to a decade, and the GM fraternity can never seem to help itself when it comes to overspending on a mid-tier free agent who just happened to get hot at the right time. It’s a tale as old as time in the NHL, with some pretty famous examples of players having a good year in their UFA walk year, or even just a good playoff, before getting paid an amount of money that will never line up with their production.

Fernando Pisani, back in 2006, is a great example of this. After a Cinderella run with the Oilers to the Stanley Cup Finals, in which he scored 14 goals and four assists in 24 games, he was rewarded handsomely with a four-year, $10MM contract that offseason. Unfortunately, Pisani never topped 28 points in a season again in his NHL career. There were health concerns with Pisani later in his career, but in any event, reaching those levels again was not likely.

Ville Leino is another great example of a player heating up and cashing in. He turned a 19-goal, 34-assist season in 2010-11 into a lucrative six-year, $27MM contract that was an absolute disaster for the Buffalo Sabres and was eventually bought out in 2014. Leino had never scored more than 11 points in an NHL season prior to his 53-point breakout with Philadelphia , and would tally just 10 goals and 36 assists in 137 games spaced over three seasons with the Sabres.

Mantha will fall into the camp of players who eventually got paid for having a terrific season, but, unlike the Pisani and Leino examples, Mantha does have a track record of scoring in the NHL. However, there are also injury concerns and concerns about his ability to score consistently. He had some lean years after he was traded from Detroit to the Washington Capitals, including 2022-23, when he posted just 11 goals and 16 assists in 67 games. He followed that up with a 44-point campaign in 2023-24 but still had to sign a prove-it contract with the Flames in the 2024 offseason for just $3.5MM.

It’s going to be very tough to gauge how general managers around the league will value what Mantha brings and what he doesn’t. Mantha is a big man, and GMs always love size. However, he plays small and doesn’t always look like he is working hard, which is often true for big men in the NHL. Mantha has other attributes that make him an attractive free-agent target; he can skate well for a big man, handles the puck well, is a good passer, and can shoot.

All of that is great, but this is the knock that has followed him since he was scouted in junior. He doesn’t always seem engaged, and in many games, particularly the big ones such as the recent playoff series with Pittsburgh, you wonder whether Mantha can find the intensity and determination to reach the next level and become a playoff performer. Mantha was often viewed in his draft year as a boom-or-bust prospect, and now 11 years into his NHL career, he is still fitting that label. Mantha was a bust in Washington after a big trade from the Red Wings sent him there, but in Pittsburgh, he was an under-the-radar signing that was a huge win for the Penguins (minus the playoffs). What his next team gets is anyone’s guess, but the $6MM annual offer on a long-term deal that seemed so likely before the playoffs now feels like a reach for Mantha. However, all it takes is one GM fighting for his job to overpay, and Mantha could be a bust once again.