Western Notes: Wild Stand Pat, Sharks Re-sign Three
One team that has received a lot of attention the last few days is the Minnesota Wild, who were a hotbed of trade chatter coming up to the trade deadline, which just passed due to their possession of multiple defensemen who they would likely have to expose if they couldn’t make a deal. However, the Wild stood pat and did not make any last minute trades and as of now, the team had no side deals going with the Las Vegas Golden Knights, according to Michael Russo of the Star Tribune.
Many teams had been looking to make big deals with Minnesota, who had too many defensemen on their roster and had to lighten their load. Going with a 7-3-1 protection scheme, the Wild were already expected to protect blueliners Ryan Suter and Jared Spurgeon and then would have to choose between Mathew Dumba, Jonas Brodin and Marco Scandella for the final protection spot. That would expose two of those three to the Las Vegas Golden Knights.
According to Russo, the team had been working on several deals before the deadline, including a possible trade to acquire Jonathan Drouin from Tampa Bay or Alex Galchenyuk from Montreal. There were no details on how close Minnesota came to making a deal with the Canadiens, but Montreal wanted a package that included Scandella. The main issue, however, for general manager Chuck Fletcher was that if he traded away one of those three defensemen, he didn’t want to lose another to the Golden Knights in the expansion draft, therefore losing two defensemen. Standing pat ensures that one of those blueliners will be staying with the club.
- San Jose Sharks general manager Doug Wilson announced that pending unrestricted free agent winger Ryan Carpenter has been signed to a two-year contract today, according to the Sharks website on NHL.com. The 26-year-old Carpenter played in just 11 games this past season, scoring two goals and two assists. He did score 14 goals for the AHL’s San Jose Barracuda in 54 contests. The team also signed Joakim Ryan and Tim Heed, as well, each to two-year contracts, tweeted by NBC Sports’ Kevin Kurz. Ryan, a 24-year-old defenseman scored 10 goals and 39 assists in 65 games for the Barracudas. Heed, also a defenseman, is coming off an even better year, putting up 14 goals and 42 assists in 55 games for the Barracudas. Heed only played one game for the Sharks this year, while Ryan has not made his NHL debut yet. All three have a legitimate chance to crack the Sharks rotation out of training camp depending on the team’s offseason moves.
West Trade Talk: Brodin, Stepan, Gaborik, Predators
One team to watch for in advance of today’s roster freeze is Minnesota who have more quality blueliners than protection slots available. Michael Russo of the Star-Tribune reports that several teams, including Dallas, Montreal, Tampa Bay, and Toronto have all shown interest in blueliner Jonas Brodin.
The 23 year old has four years left at a cap hit of $4.17MM, a solid rate for a player who has averaged more than 22 minutes of playing time per game in his career. He’s also coming off a career year offensively with 25 points in 68 games.
Brodin isn’t the only blueliner that the Canadiens have shown interest in as Russo notes that Marco Scandella’s name has come up in trade discussion as well as part of talks regarding forward Alex Galchenyuk. However, given their situation when it comes to protecting forwards in expansion, making a deal work where the Wild take a forward back that requires protection may be a bit too challenging in these final hours before the freeze.
Other trade rumblings from the West:
- The Coyotes are showing “serious interest” in Rangers center Derek Stepan, TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports (Twitter link). The deadline to watch for here is more July 1st than today as the turn of the calendar marks the beginning of Stepan’s no-trade clause. The soon-to-be 27 year old had 55 points (17-38-55) in 81 games this past season and has four years left on his contract with a $6.5MM cap hit.
- The Kings held discussions with the Golden Knights about potentially taking on winger Marian Gaborik’s contract, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun notes (Twitter links). However, talks didn’t progress as the asking price to do so was too high for their liking. The 35 year old Gaborik has four years left on his deal with a $4.875MM cap charge but has seen a significant drop in his production in recent years. In 2016-17, he had just 10 goals and 11 assists for a career low 21 points in 56 games while also spending time as a healthy scratch.
- Nashville is continuing to try to reach a side agreement with Vegas on a deal for them to avoid a prominent unprotected player but talks are not progressing, TSN’s Darren Dreger reports via Twitter. It’s expected that the Predators will utilize the 8/1 strategy in order to protect their top four defensemen. However, that means that one of wingers Calle Jarnkrok or James Neal would be exposed and would certainly interest the Golden Knights.
Columbus To “Steer” Vegas Expansion Pick
The Columbus Blue Jackets may have a deal in place with the Vegas Golden Knights to overlook certain Blue Jackets in the expansion draft. Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch reports that in exchange for Columbus’s first round pick and a second-tier prospect, the Golden Knights will only select one of Matt Calvert, William Karlsson, or Ryan Murray. Portzline also thinks that Vegas may take injured forward David Clarkson as well.
The deal, if true, allows Columbus to protect its core forward and defensive group, and keep an up-and-coming goalie prospect in its system.
[See PHR’s Columbus Blue Jackets Expansion Primer]
The deal essentially protects forward Josh Anderson and goaltender Joonas Korpisalo, who Columbus risked losing because they did not have enough protection slots. Anderson had 17G and 12A as a 22 year -old, and would certainly entice the Golden Knights.
The price, however, is steep. Columbus gives up the 24th pick in this summer’s draft, and because they gave up their second round pick when they hired coach John Tortorella from the Vancouver Canucks, they do not draft this year until pick 86. That being said, the team has one of the stronger youth movements in the NHL, and can afford to pause the pipeline for a year.
The price may also dissuade other teams from making a similar move. The Anaheim Ducks and Nashville Predators also face a significant loss in the expansion draft, and have to weigh whether a first round pick is worth more than the player they risk losing. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun tweeted, however, that an anonymous NHL GM thinks the Golden Knights have at least three first round draft picks so far, and more to come before the draft is over, so that decision may have already been made.
Expansion Notes: Phaneuf, McPhee, Final Decisions
TSN’s Pierre LeBrun tweets that nothing changed on Ottawa defenseman Dion Phaneuf‘s decision to waive his no-movement clause prior to the 5pm deadline today. This doesn’t mean, however, that he won’t be traded. Phaneuf is definitely in the mix to be dealt as Ottawa agonizes over who to protect and who to leave exposed as lists are due tomorrow at 5pm. Phaneuf has been the subject of trade rumors, and it was confirmed by general manager Pierre Dorion that he’s received calls about the 32-year-old defenseman. Some pundits thought Phaneuf might waive his NMC before the 5pm deadline, but with that now passed, it will be interesting to see if he’s one of many players shuttled to another team to ease the restrictions on the list.
- The USA Today’s Kevin Allen writes that Vegas general manager George McPhee has encouraged his staff to catch up on their sleep prior to the weekend as all NHL teams will have their protected lists submitted tomorrow. Noting that he only has 72 hours to put a team together, McPhee told Allen that teams have been straightforward with McPhee as to what they’re thinking and that it’s been in line with what McPhee and his staff expected. Allen reports that McPhee plans on informing each team who they plan on taking, so they can circle back to see if another deal can be worked out. Further, McPhee indicates that they are trying to build a balanced squad that can compete right away. He adds that they also want to acquire as many draft picks as possible to “expedite their building process.” McPhee also told Allen that even though he’s in his office at 6am Vegas time, his phone has been ringing non-stop with colleagues looking to make deals.
- On the other side of McPhee’s phone line are 30 general managers wrangling with what they’re going to do in anticipation of the draft. The AP’s Stephen Whyno spoke with general managers who are also losing sleep over the draft, albeit for different reasons. Minnesota’s Chuck Fletcher told Whyno that he often reminds himself at 3am that he can “only lose one player–go back to sleep.” Florida’s Dale Tallon remarked that “everyone’s a little nervous, a little reluctant” in anticipation of what will happen. Tampa general manager Steve Yzerman already responded by trading Jonathan Drouin to Montreal while New York and Colorado bought out the contracts of Dan Girardi and Francois Beauchemin respectively. Meanwhile, LeBrun tweets that deals could go down to the wire after speaking with Fletcher while Tampa Bay Times beat writer Joe Smith tweets that he sees Tampa Bay in potential talks with Fletcher since the Wild have a logjam at defense.
Expansion Primer: Ottawa Senators
We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft; which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
The Ottawa Senators came into this season with a new coach, a new second line center and a dream that getting back to the Conference finals for just the third time in their history might be a possibility. All season people wrote them off as a weak team piggy-backing on the dominant play of their captain and best player, Erik Karlsson. With some extra help from an outstanding goaltending duo, the team shattered expectations and came within one game of the Stanley Cup Final, a successful year to be sure.
Ottawa is now looking to reload for another playoff run next season, with youngster Colin White and blue-chip prospect Thomas Chabot in tow. Their future looks quite bright, even if they did trade away some assets in questionable trade deadline deals. Just like any Cup contender, Ottawa isn’t in the best shape when it comes to the expansion draft and were dealt a further blow when Dion Phaneuf decided to not waive his no-movement clause. As protection lists are due tomorrow evening, the Senators have to make up their mind fast (if they haven’t already) and make some tough decisions.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman, Derick Brassard, Clarke MacArthur, Mark Stone, Kyle Turris, Zack Smith, Alexandre Burrows, Mike Blunden, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Ryan Dzingel
Defensemen:
Dion Phaneuf (NMC), Erik Karlsson, Marc Methot, Cody Ceci, Mark Borowiecki, Chris Wideman, Fredrik Claesson, Patrick Sieloff
Goaltenders:
Craig Anderson, Andrew Hammond, Chris Driedger
Notable Exemptions
Colin White, Logan Brown, Chris Didomenico, Thomas Chabot, Ben Harpur
Key Decisions
The first decision any team must make is whether to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie (7-3-1) or eight skaters and one goalie (8-1). The Senators are no different, as they have several interesting defensemen that project to go unprotected should they use the former, but will likely go with the latter due to their distinct lack of forward depth. 
Up front the Senators can’t afford to lose a player like Jean-Gabriel Pageau for nothing, as they learned this year when several key forwards went down to injury at the same time. Even though they play a defensive, trapping scheme, their secondary scoring depth isn’t good enough to sustain losses and with Pageau coming off an outstanding playoff run he’s a lock to be protected in a 7-3-1 format.
Mike Hoffman, Derick Brassard, Mark Stone and Kyle Turris are the others who should feel comfortable, and even with his extremely inflated salary, Bobby Ryan may have played his way back into the team’s good books with a strong playoff run. So, decisions at forward generally come down to Clarke MacArthur, Zack Smith and Ryan Dzingel of which the team can only protect one. MacArthur is an emotional leader of the team after returning from concussion problems late in the year, but Smith and Dzingel offer more for the relatively low price tags.
On defense is where it gets really tight for the Senators, as Phaneuf’s NMC and Karlsson’s no-brainer leave them with just one spot to protect Marc Methot, Cody Ceci, Mark Borowiecki, Chris Wideman and Fredrik Claesson. That’s a lot of names to decide between, and all of them deserve protection to some degree. Ceci, for all the hate he gets at times logged the second-most minutes on the team and combined with Phaneuf on a relatively solid second pair, while Methot was the yin to Karlsson’s yang all season.
Neither of those two hold a candle possession-wise to Wideman, while Borowiecki was the clear physical leader of the team, even leading the NHL in hits. Claesson is the real wildcard in the group, as even though he’s suited up for just 49 NHL games he showed he could handle himself in the playoffs and perhaps move up alongside Karlsson at some point in the future. At just 24 he would be another interesting option for the Golden Knights.
In net Anderson will get the call, unless the team comes to a long-term extension with Condon before the deadline. The only reason to do that would be if they think Vegas could swoop in and sign him out from under them, though that would also cause them to forfeit their selection. In terms of other free agent options there isn’t much to see on Ottawa.
Projected Protection List
F Bobby Ryan
F Mike Hoffman
F Derick Brassard
F Mark Stone
F Kyle Turris
F Zack Smith
F Jean-Gabriel Pageau
D Dion Phaneuf (NMC)
D Erik Karlsson
D Cody Ceci
In the end, Ceci offers too much due to his age and cheap contract to let walk for nothing. At just 23, and signed for only $2.8MM this season he still exists as an excellent asset, if not a perfect fit for the Senators system. He could easily used in a trade, or improve next season and beyond as he heads into his prime. Leaving the other defensemen unprotected though isn’t a move GM Pierre Dorion wants though, which is likely why Phaneuf’s name has been floating around in trade speculation for the last couple of days.
Ultimately the Senators could probably stand to trade two of their defensemen before the draft just to avoid losing them for nothing, but it’s more likely that they’ll just bite the bullet and lose a player of value. There is also the possibility of making a side-deal with Vegas in order to take someone else, but there has been no indication so far that Dorion has been pursuing that idea.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Nashville Predators Unable To Reach Deal With Vegas Golden Knights
- Pierre LeBrun of TSN reports that despite trying to reach a deal with the Vegas Golden Knights in order to protect both James Neal and Calle Jarnkrok from selection in the upcoming expansion draft, the two sides have yet to come to an agreement. As we discussed in our Nashville Expansion Primer, the Predators are at real risk of giving up the most talented player in the entire draft. LeBrun suggests they’ll look elsewhere for a deal, but protection lists are due tomorrow evening and they’re running out of time.
Expansion Primer: New York Rangers
We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
Until today, the Expansion Draft plan for GM Jeff Gorton and the New York Rangers remained unclear. The time had come and gone to ask overpaid blueliners Marc Staal and Dan Girardi or the underachieving Rick Nash to waive their No-Movement clauses and the team declined. They were also cutting it close should they choose to extend one of their impending free agent forwards and make their expansion decisions easier, with protection lists due on Saturday. New York has one of the deepest groups of forwards in the NHL, even with rookies Jimmy Vesey and Pavel Buchnevich draft-exempt, yet the team had not taken any steps to protect their core. At least not until this morning…
The Rangers announced two moves earlier today, the first being an extension for impending restricted free agent forward Matt Puempel. With term now on his contract, Puempel meets all the criteria to be one of two mandatory forwards exposed in the Expansion Draft, saving them from otherwise having to expose a core forward. The second announcement was the long-awaited end to the Girardi era, as the stated their plans to buy out the veteran tomorrow, opening up a slot on the blue line for them to protect the underrated Nick Holden.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards
Rick Nash (NMC), Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello, J.T. Miller, Kevin Hayes, Michael Grabner, Mika Zibanejad, Jesper Fast, Daniel Catenacci, Matt Puempel, Oscar Lindberg, Nicklas Jensen, Brandon Pirri
Defense
Marc Staal (NMC), Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Klein, Nick Holden, Steven Kampfer, Michael Paliotta, Adam Clendening
Goaltender
Henrik Lundqvist, Antti Raanta, Mackenzie Skapski
Notable Exemptions
Jimmy Vesey, Brady Skjei, Pavel Buchnevich, Cristoval Nieves
Key Decisions
With Rick Nash holding on to his No-Movement clause, the Rangers have just six spots left to protect a large group of impact forwards: Mats Zuccarello, Derek Stepan, J.T. Miller, Chris Kreider, Kevin Hayes, Michael Grabner, and restricted free agent Mika Zibanejad. Despite a unexpected outburst of 40 points in his first season in New York, Grabner is the easy target to point at as not like the rest of the Rangers’ young and mostly homegrown talents. Many Ranger fans wouldn’t have minded holding on to Grabner, at $1.65MM next year, over Nash, who will make $7.8MM again in 2017-18 after recording less than 40 points in three of the past four seasons.
It’s hard to make a case for any of the other six being offered up instead of Grabner. Zuccarello is the oldest of the group, but he’s still only 29 and has led the team in scoring in three of the past four seasons. Zucarello is almost certainly safe. At just 23 years old, Miller has taken a bigger and bigger role for the Blueshirts with each year and is perhaps the franchise’s best building block. He too is a near guarantee. While both Stepan and Kreider have heard whispers of trade rumors in each of the past two seasons, with Stepan’s growing louder in recent days, both are far too good to give up for free and will likely be protected. After trading away Derick Brassard last off-season to acquire Zibanejad, it seems highly unlikely that the team would risk losing him already, even if his first season in New York was marred by injury. Finally, Hayes, who has done nothing but excel in any role the Rangers have given him since signing with the Rangers out of college three years ago, and it would be a major surprise to see them choose Grabner over him.
Thus, it seems Grabner will likely join Puempel as the Rangers’ unprotected forwards and with the decisions in net and on the blue line pretty clear-cut, the Rangers have gone from a confusing expansion scenario about 24 hours ago to one of the easiest teams to project.
Projected Protection List
Scheme: 7F/3D/1G
Forwards
Rick Nash (NMC)
Mats Zuccarello
J.T. Miller
Derek Stepan
Chris Kreider
Mika Zibanejad
Kevin Hayes
Defensemen
Marc Staal (NMC)
Ryan McDonagh
Nick Holden
Goalie
The Rangers barely have any decisions to make in regards to their protection on defense and in net. All-world keeper Henrik Lundqvist is obviously safe, leaving skilled backup Antti Raanta as an intriguing target for the Golden Knights. Vegas GM George McPhee has stated that the team could select many promising goalies in the Expansion Draft and guage who to keep and who to trade away after the fact. Raanta could indeed be one of those picks.
On the blue line, the buy out of Dan Girardi will leave one more spot open to join go to the team’s best defender and captain, Ryan McDonagh, and Marc Staal, who was not asked to waive his No-Movement clause. The only real candidate to fill that spot is Nick Holden. Kevin Klein, who is reportedly mulling retirement, meets the 40/70 criteria to fill the one-defenseman exposure quota, but is not a viable target for Vegas. The only other defenseman under contract for the Rangers is journeyman Steven Kampfer, another player who would be a strange selection for the Golden Knights. Restricted free agent Adam Clendening, despite showing signs of upside in 2016-17, has already been informed that he will not receiving a qualifying offer and will become an unrestricted free agent, like several other Rangers blue liners, and again it is unlikely that the Knights will waste picks on UFA’s. For all intents and purposes, the Girardi buyout ensures that no further changes will be coming to the New York defense in the coming week.
If Vegas passes on Raanta, they will likely instead turn to offense and, more likely than not, Michael Grabner. After his best season since he nearly won the Calder Trophy in 2010-11, Grabner appears to be back at the top of his game and could be hard to pass up for a Vegas team that will have a hard time finding scoring in the Expansion Draft and this summer’s free agency class. The loss of Grabner would be far greater than that of Jesper Fast or Oscar Lindberg or any other possible player, though don’t rule out the possibility that the Knights simply take youth and upside over established skill.
The situation in New York has gained great clarity today and now they face one of the more predictable expansion situations in the NHL. However, that doesn’t mean that they will escape the draft unscathed. A deep, talented team like the Rangers seems destined to take a hit next week.
Trades With Vegas Will Not Be Announced Until June 21st
The news that none of us wanted to hear was confirmed today, as Pierre LeBrun of TSN relays a communication from the league to teams today. They were each instructed not to reveal any trades made with the Vegas Golden Knights before the June 21st event, in which the expansion rosters will be announced alongside the NHL Awards ceremony. This is likely why we haven’t heard much from the expansion franchise despite GM George McPhee claiming that he wanted to start ironing out deals last week. It seems at least a handful of teams will have trades to announce, making the Awards show must-see television for any hockey fan next week.
It’s interesting that the league would have to go out of their way to make sure no leaks happen, as it’s hard to imagine any gain from a team revealing it’s expansion draft plans. As it stands, teams like Anaheim can still use the leverage of a possible deal in any trade talks with other teams. It will be interesting to see just how many deals are revealed during the draft, as already Chicago, Anaheim and Columbus have been seriously linked.
For all the talk about how weak the expansion class is for the Golden Knights to choose from, it does seem like they’ve done a good job so far extracting every bit of leverage out of the situation to acquire assets that may have not been available. If they can secure good young players or picks in return for avoiding a certain selection, it will only strengthen their program down the line. Because they’re not realistically expected to compete for a few years, even a young player like Josh Manson who is three years away from free agency may be less valuable to them than the asset they’ll acquire not to take him.
Expansion Primer: San Jose Sharks
We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
The San Jose Sharks took an expected step backwards this season after an impressive display in 2015-16 saw them reach Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final. The team is certainly at a crossroads, with long-time leaders Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton hitting unrestricted free agency. They were ousted quite easily in the first round by the upstart Edmonton Oilers, and GM Doug Wilson will look to craft a strategy that will put them back in contention for a title.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski, Mikkel Boedker, Joel Ward, Tomas Hertl, Melker Karlsson, Jannik Hansen, Chris Tierney (RFA), Barclay Goodrow (RFA)
Defensemen:
Brent Burns, Paul Martin, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Justin Braun, Brenden Dillon, David Schlemko, Dylan DeMelo, Mirco Mueller (RFA)
Goaltenders:
Martin Jones, Troy Grosenick, Aaron Dell
Notable Exemptions
Joonas Donskoi, Timo Meier, Kevin Lebanc, Marcus Sorenson, Danny O’Regan, Tim Heed, Joakim Ryan
Key Decisions
The Sharks are looking to infuse some youth into their lineup next season, and they are hopeful that one of the poor-performing vets in Mikkel Boedker or Joel Ward will be the only loss to expansion. Unfortunately for them, it seems unlikely that the Golden Knights are looking to acquire many greybeards. A huge debate, at least from the outside, is whether they will opt to protect 8 skaters and one goalie, or the more popular 7F/3D/1G setup. San Jose has done quite well to build a stable group of defensemen, but they do have some forwards they’d prefer not to sacrifice.
On offense, there are three locks to be protected, at the least. Logan Couture and Joe Pavelski are the offensive leaders of this team and are both in the primes of their careers. Tomas Hertl has amazing creativity and flare, and will only improve as he just turned 23. Melker Karlsson seems the next safest bet, as he has displayed great defensive play and versatility. He is the team’s swiss-army knife, and has too much value to sacrifice. The remaining group of forwards that would be exposed if San Jose opts to go the 4F/4D/1G route would be thus: Mikkel Boedker, Joel Ward, Jannik Hansen, Chris Tierney. Losing one of Hansen or Tierney would be irritating, but surmountable.
On defense, Brent Burns is a dominant offensive force from the blueline – he led the league in points from the blueline. Marc-Eduoard Vlasic takes the bulk of quality competition and has been a rock defensively. Justin Braun didn’t have the most phenomenal year, but he is an integral piece of the team going forward. This leaves Paul Martin, David Schlemko, Mico Mueller, and Brenden Dillon all exposed – with one of the group nearly certain to be lost. Martin has been a top-pairing guy for a decade, and his loss would be significant. Vegas’ has stated the goal of starting young and could certainly pass over the 36 year-old. It’s a sizable risk, but it certainly seems a possible scenario that he remains untouched. Dillon hasn’t performed well enough to warrant protection over the other two D-men. He had a much better possession season this year (53.0 Corsi For %) than last (49.3% CF), but his offensive impact is truly minimal. He also sees bottom-pairing minutes and a lower quality of competition than Schlemko.
Of the remaining two, Schlemko is clearly the better player at this moment. Schlemko had a great possession year (54.6% CF)and has been a positive influence on every team he’s played. Protecting Schlemko would serve to provide insurance if Martin were for some reason claimed. There is a marginal case to protect the younger Muelller, as he is only 22 and could serve as a cheap option on the blueline for the next few years. He did only played 4 NHL games last year, and impressed no one, but as a recent first-rounder Vegas could jump on the opportunity. The organization does seem low on him, so he could easily find himself on the outs.
In net, Martin Jones will obviously be the protected asset. The team just re-signed backup Troy Grosenick, but with the plethora of available goalies Vegas can choose from, he’s entirely safe.
Although there are plenty of no-trade clauses (NTCs) on the roster, there are no players who require protection due to an NMC. Additionally, the Sharks will benefit heavily from their foresight (and/or luck) with having Thornton and Marleau both turning UFA this particular off-season. Vegas could theoretically “claim” either, but it wouldn’t do anything other than give the Knights a head start on potential contract negotiations. With those two older players relatively safe, the organization will focus on protecting others who will contribute to their chances in the near future. Schlemko had a solid year and will be playing long after Martin is retired, and that will likely be the tie-breaker.
Projected Protection List
F Joe Pavelski
F Logan Couture
F Tomas Hertl
F Melker Karlsson
D Brent Burns
D Marc-Edouard Vlasic
D Justin Braun
D David Schlemko
G Martin Jones
By all indication, the Sharks are trying to compete again next year. I fully expect them to sign at least one of Marleau and Thornton and to make another strong push in the Pacific before going complete re-build. Burns is still a top defenseman, and with a solid re-tooling of the bottom-six, it’s not an inconceivable goal. Schlemko is not too far behind Martin in terms of performance, and could see his role improved. They are flirting with moving him for assets, which wouldn’t be the worst decision if they then protected Martin. One of the two has to be there to round out the top-four on defense.
As for Vegas, they could go with a semi-“proven” commodity in the speedy Boedker, fill out the roster with the solid but unremarkable Tierney, take a risk on an unproven talent like Mueller, or go the safest route and employ the aged Martin to guide the youngsters along. They will have options, but no loss the Sharks couldn’t endure.
Expansion Primer: Nashville Predators
We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
Two days ago, the Nashville Predators’ dream season came to an end. A goal scored from nearly behind the net (after a much disputed quick whistle earlier in the game) put the Pittsburgh Penguins up 1-0 in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final, a lead which they would not relinquish. The Predators would have to watch on home ice while the Penguins celebrated winning the trophy, before saluting a crowd that had witnessed the longest playoff run in team history.
Now, they’ll head into the offseason with a bittersweet taste in their mouths from getting so close, and with some huge decisions to make with regards to the future of the team. Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson lead a large crop of restricted free agents that need new contracts, while both James Neal and Juuse Saros could be up for extensions as they have just one year left on their respective contracts. The Predators are one of the most interesting teams when it comes to the expansion draft, as their glut of defenders will likely force them to leave some other intriguing players available to Vegas.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Filip Forsberg, James Neal, Craig Smith, Colin Wilson, Calle Jarnkrok, Cody McLeod, Colton Sissons, Miikka Salomaki, Cody Bass, Trevor Smith, Austin Watson, Ryan Johansen, Pontus Aberg, Viktor Arvidsson
Defensemen:
P.K. Subban, Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis, Andrew O’Brien, Matt Irwin, Yannick Weber, Anthony Bitetto, Petter Granberg, Jaynen Rissling
Goaltender:
Pekka Rinne (NMC), Marek Mazanec
Notable Exemptions
Kevin Fiala, Victor Ejdsell, Vladislav Kamenev, Emil Pettersson, Frederik Gaudreau, Juuse Saros
Key Decisions
One of the tough parts about being a Stanley Cup contender is usually most of your core players are in or entering their prime and thus would be eligible for expansion. That’s the case in Nashville, where virtually all of their key players will need protection in the draft. The first decision they have to make is whether to use the 7-3-1 (seven forwards, three defensemen, one goaltender) or 8-1 (eight skaters, one goaltender) protection scheme. The Predators will most likely choose the latter, because of their deep defense corps. 
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Sometimes called a group of four #1 defenders, hyperbolic superlatives aside the Predators have one of the best groups among any blueline in the league. P.K. Subban, Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis all have incredible value, mostly because of the relatively low cap-hits held by the latter three. Leaving any of them available for Vegas would assure they were the selection, meaning that the team will likely only have four slots remaining for the forward group.
Beyond those four, only Matt Irwin holds any real value. The 29-year old defenseman has played well at times in a sheltered role in the NHL, developing into a legitimate option for any third pair in the league. Despite this, he would be an extreme long-shot to be selected by Vegas. Yannick Weber, re-signed just earlier today is even further removed from consideration.
Up front, four slots would leave several players available for the Golden Knights to pounce on. Three will undoubtedly go to Johansen, Arvidsson and Filip Forsberg while the last spot has several options. Today, Pierre LeBrun of TSN speculated on this decision, saying the team could potentially leave Neal unprotected and use it on Calle Jarnkrok instead. Neal is a 29-year old power forward who has scored at least 20 goals every season of his nine-year career. Earlier this year we looked at just how rare his career performance has been, making him an incredibly appealing option for Vegas should he be left exposed. Even though Neal has just one year left on his contract, he would likely be the most talented forward that the Golden Knights could acquire.
Jarnkrok on the other hand is an intriguing option, given the inexplicably cheap contract he signed last summer. At the age of 24 and coming off a 16 goal season, Jarnkrok signed a six-year $12MM contract that bought out several free agent years. Clearly it seems to matter more to him where he plays than how much he earns, as he easily could have made more on the open market when he reached unrestricted free agency. That cost-certainty is appealing to Vegas, as is his ability as a middle-six center that can contribute at both ends of the rink. Centers will likely be the most difficult thing for the Golden Knights to acquire through the draft, and they would likely jump at the opportunity to acquire one that just averaged 17 minutes a night on a team that made it to Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final.
There is also the problem of Colton Sissons, who before the playoffs would have been an afterthought in the expansion draft plans. When Ryan Johansen and Mike Fisher went out with various injuries though, Sissons stepped up and scored more points in his 22 playoff games than he did all season. He showed that there may be more to him than a bottom-six center, and given the right opportunity could thrive with more responsibility.
In net, Pekka Rinne would likely be protected even if he didn’t have the no-movement clause that makes it automatic. Rinne was a big part of how the Predators did so well in the playoffs, and at 34 put up another solid season. Though he’s owed a lot of money—$7MM per season for the next two years—he’ll likely enter next season as the starter once again as the team eases Saros in as the future in net. Saros’ exemption is a big plus for the team, as the 22-year old looks like one of the best young goaltenders in the league after posting a .923 save percentage as a rookie in 19 starts this year.
Among free agents that the Golden Knights may be interested in negotiating with during their exclusive window, only Mike Fisher really stands out. The captain of the Predators is 37 now and though he had a fantastic season for his age—18 goals and 42 points—wouldn’t provide much value for the Golden Knights who figure to struggle the first few years. Other than that, the team could try to negotiate a long-term deal with someone like Pontus Aberg, who showed he may have a future in an NHL top-six and could be tempting should they have a contract in hand by the end of the window.
Projected Protection List
F Filip Forsberg
F Viktor Arvidsson
F Ryan Johansen
F Calle Jarnkrok
D P.K. Subban
D Roman Josi
D Mattias Ekholm
D Ryan Ellis
The Predators are another team that is likely desperately trying to work out a deal of some sort with the Vegas Golden Knights or any other team, as letting Neal walk for nothing would be foolish. He’s still young enough that he can provide value for basically every team in the league, and wouldn’t be hard to find a suitor even on the last year of his contract. He does hold a limited no-trade clause, but it only allows him to block trades to eight teams around the league. Along with Sissons, Craig Smith, Colin Wilson and others, the Predators are ripe for the picking up front and could easily provide the Golden Knights with one of their best players.
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