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Expansion Primer: Vancouver Canucks

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Vancouver Canucks head into this offseason with a goal unfamiliar to fans of the team: rebuild. It’s been 16 seasons since the Sedin twins made their debuts, and in that period the Canucks have made the playoffs 11 times. Now aged 36, the duo are on a rapid decline and will now try to help the team find a new set of core players. At the deadline, the Canucks sold for the first time in many years, sending Jannik Hansen and Alex Burrows off for prospects.

Despite finishing second-last in the league, the team will select fifth in this year’s entry draft, thanks to the ping-pong balls at the draft lottery. Fifth was where they selected last year as well, picking Olli Juolevi from the OHL’s London Knights; the same place they unearthed budding-star Bo Horvat a few years prior. Now heading into the expansion draft they have few issues but many options, which will be examined below.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Daniel Sedin (NMC), Henrik Sedin (NMC), Loui Eriksson (NMC), Brandon Sutter, Derek Dorsett, Sven Baertschi, Markus Granlund, Jayson Megna, Reid Boucher, Michael Zalewski, Joseph Cramarossa, Bo Horvat, Michael Chaput, Brendan Gaunce

Defensemen:

Alexander Edler, Chris Tanev, Luca Sbisa, Andrey Pedan, Alex Biega, Tom Nilsson, Erik Gudbranson

Goaltenders:

Jacob Markstrom, Richard Bachman

Notable Exemptions

Jonathan Dahlen, Brock Boeser, Jake Virtanen, Nikolay Goldobin, Troy Stecher, Jordan Subban, Olli Juolevi, Griffen Molino, Thatcher Demko

Key Decisions

While it would be hard to imagine the Canucks exposing the Sedins in the expansion draft simply because of what they have meant to the franchise over their careers, the team won’t even have to worry about it. Both the twins and Eriksson have no-movement clauses and will automatically receive protection slots, leaving the team with just four forward choices. Brendan Gaunce

What that means is likely exposure of Gaunce, just a few years removed from being selected in the first round. Gaunce spent most of the season with the Canucks for the first time in his career, but still wasn’t able to contribute much offensively. Registering just five points in 57 games, he hasn’t been able to convert his size and hockey IQ into much scoring, though at just 23 he still has time.  Gaunce is the kind of player Vegas could very well target, hoping to find some upside in a young player that hasn’t shown it yet.

There is also Dorsett, who missed most of this season after neck surgery but has been an effective bottom-six player over his career. If he’s set to be healthy by next season he could bring a veteran voice to the young Vegas club, and protect any youngsters in the lineup. The Canucks actually may hope Dorsett is picked, just to rid themselves of his $2.65MM cap hit while they turn around their team.

On defense, the Canucks will have to choose between Sbisa and Gudbranson if they don’t make a trade before the draft. GM Jim Benning paid a hefty price to bring Gudbranson in, dealing Jared McCann for the former third-overall pick last summer. Gudbranson missed most of the season following wrist surgery and has been the whipping-boy for much of the analytical movement due to his poor possession numbers, but still represents a solid NHL defender with some upside.

Luca SbisaSbisa on the other hand logged 19 minutes a night and was one of only three players (along with the Sedins) to dress for every single game this season. He is a former first-round pick himself, but has never quite seemed to live up to the potential his excellent skating ability had showed early on. He’s two years older than Gudbranson, and is an unrestricted free agent after this season (Gudbranson is an RFA this summer).

In net, Markstrom will be the protected party as Miller is set to hit free agency. Markstrom’s new three-year extension kicks in this season and will pay him $3.67MM to be the Canucks’ starting goaltender. Whether he fills that role long-term is still yet to be decided, but there is no doubt he’ll come out of the expansion draft unscathed.

As far as free agents that Vegas could target in their early window, the Canucks don’t have much of interest. Miller is really the only one that has much value on the open market, and with the amount of goaltending options Vegas has available to them he doesn’t seem much of a fit.

Projected Protection List

F Daniel Sedin (NMC)
F Henrik Sedin (NMC)
F Loui Eriksson (NMC)
F Brandon Sutter
F Sven Baertschi
F Markus Granlund
F Bo Horvat

D Alexander Edler
D Chris Tanev
D Erik Gudbranson

G Jacob Markstrom

As always, there is the chance that Vancouver makes a deal to help out their situation before the draft, perhaps moving Tanev as has been rumored lately. They could also talk one of their older Swedes into waiving a no-movement clause in order to protect Gaunce or another forward, though that would put them at risk of selection as all three still have upside and name recognition. This might not be the worst outcome for the team in Eriksson’s case, after his disastrous season in the first year of his six-year, $36MM deal. He’ll turn 32 this summer, and likely won’t be much help to the team when they’re ready to compete again.

In all, the Canucks don’t find themselves in a horrible position, but losing one of Gaunce or Sbisa for nothing isn’t a perfect scenario. There are many ways they could avoid it, including making a side deal with Vegas to have them select a different player that may not be as beneficial. Vegas GM George McPhee has already admitted several teams have contacted him about this method, and he’s willing to listen if it provides his team with an asset.

This list could change drastically by next season, but with the majority of their young talent ineligible to be taken, the Canucks will continue their rebuild as planned this summer.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Edler’s IIHF Success May Force Vancouver To Move Him

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The Vancouver Canucks may have to expedite their rebuilding plan as Vancouver Sun’s Jeff Paterson suggests with the recent success of Team Sweden in the International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) World Championships, veteran defenseman Alexander Edler may re-consider his position in Vancouver. The success of Sweden over the past two weeks and most recently today when they captured the gold medal, may have given the defenseman a will to compete for a Stanley Cup rather than languish with the Canucks who are not anywhere near that level.

Edler, who has spent his entire career in Vancouver, has two years left at $5MM, and at 31 years old, this may be the best time to move on. He finished the season with six goals and 15 assists in 68 games this past season. Paterson writes that Edler must see the success of some of his former teammates such as Ryan Kesler and Kevin Bieksa in Anaheim as well as Alexandre Burrows in Ottawa. And with many teams need for a top-four defenseman, there should be plenty of trade interest if Edler wishes it.

The veteran blueliner does have a No Movement Clause, but that would only benefit Edler as he can have a say to which team he could get traded to. On top of that, with two years left on his contract, any team that trades for him would get him for two post-season runs. Paterson compares Edler to that of Dion Phaneuf in Ottawa, who took a role as a second-line defenseman there and has thrived for the Senators. The same could hold true for Edler.

A trade like this could also be beneficial to the Canucks. While they would likely net a good haul for the defensive-minded blueliner, the team would also open up a spot on their protection roster for the upcoming expansion draft and free up cap space to further enhance their rebuilding process.

Learning From The Sedins

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The Vancouver Canucks are a team that is floundering to find a path forward. After nearly a decade of remarkable regular seasons and a painfully close Cup run in 2011, the Canucks are solidly in the rebuilding phase of their franchise. They start the 2017-18 off-season with the 5th overall pick and many decent, if unremarkable, options at the slot to help further that process. (An impact center is always a welcome piece.) The organization has struggled mightily to move on past the era of Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin, both of whom were consistently in the upper echelon of point-getters every season in their primes. Now 36 years-old, each player’s production has taken a nosedive. And the team hasn’t been able to draft difference makers up front to fill the void, despite this day being long anticipated.

Although wisdom is not often recognized as such until a later date, there was a sizable portion of the Canuck fanbase who had hope to move the Sedin twins just a few seasons ago. As soon as they missed the post-season in 2013-14 the writing was on the wall for the franchise. The move should have been made that season, or perhaps even the year prior. That season saw a massive decline in the twins’ production which has never fully recovered – Henrik down to 0.71 points per game from 0.93, and Daniel down to 0.64 PPG from 0.85.

The Sedins will undoubtedly have their numbers retired by the Vancouver organization and have given great years of hockey to the city. They may even be considered for the Hockey Hall of Fame, but without a Stanley Cup to their credit that will be a difficult sell. Regardless of all that, their value to the team as assets was ignored in favor of the long-shot hope that the Canucks could compete once more with their core players. Former GM Mike Gillis had an up-and-down tenure, but utterly failed to move on past aging players and his drafting didn’t help. With five 1st-round picks in his tenure, only 2013’s Bo Horvat amounted to an offensive threat for the franchise. Brendan Gaunce, Nicklas Jensen, Jordan Schroeder, and Cody Hodgson are all busts relative to their potential. Worse, their late round picks were even less successful, amounting to no notable NHLers at all. Jim Benning hasn’t exactly inspired either since taking over management duties.

Trading the Sedins would have been a phenomenally difficult undertaking, especially considering their desire to play together. But the potential return would have been substantial from any team able to fit them in (at a reduced rate). Now the hour is far too late, and the Sedins have only one season remaining on their contracts. At this point, it seems sensible to merely re-sign them and let them finish their days in British Columbia. But the opportunity squandered to recover some value from declining marquee names will haunt the franchise for years to come. That failure should serve as a warning to teams around the league that prolonging the rebuilding phase can have dire consequences.

Nashville And The Win-Win Trade

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In these playoffs, there are quite a few players who are making their former teams look silly for ever moving on from them. Phil Kessel is one such example, Kyle Turris is another. There are also skaters who have been fantastic for their teams but the sight of whom doesn’t instill hatred in former team’s fans. Arizona faithful surely grimace every time Turris touches the pucks and drives up ice, but James Neal is still loved and adored by Pittsburgh fans. The primary reason being that the Penguins aren’t regretful. Neal was involved in a very important and team-altering trade that ended up benefited the Predators as much as it did the Penguins.

Rewind the clock  to the 2014 Draft. The Penguins have just been eliminated for the 5th straight postseason in disappointing fashion. The aging Jim Rutherford is brought in to right a ship that looks destined to take on more water. The Predators had completely missed the playoffs, tallying only 38 wins and relying upon a totally inept and anemic offense. Shea Weber had led the team in points on D and they had recently lost Ryan Suter to free agency, and after Hornqvist, Craig Smith, and Mike Fisher, there was practically nothing to push the pace offensively. Carter Hutton had to take the crease in the wake of Pekka Rinne having injury trouble and poor performance. Both teams needed a desperate shake up, and it wouldn’t come painlessly for either. GM David Poile spent the time with Rutherford to hammer out a deal that contained a fair bit of risk on both sides.

The ultimate deal resulted in the 61-point getting, former 40-goal scoring James Neal traded to Nashville for their leading scorer in Patrick Hornqvist, Nick Spaling, and a 2nd-round pick. Nashville lost two solid players on a defensive oriented team in hopes of shifting focus to a more offensive game. Pittsburgh isolated net-front presence and physicality as pieces they were lacking come playoff time. Both teams ended up reveling in the results of this gambit, but it is the sort of deal we see little of in today’s NHL – a win-win trade.

A recent example of an attempted high-risk win-win trade would be Shea Weber for P.K. Subban. One could make the case that GM Marc Bergevin was following a valid needs-based brand of logic, but for many reasons the move was short-sighted for the Canadiens. Montreal fans can claim hindsight, but Weber was always going to be due for decline and was arguably already lesser in value. Without delving further into that particular transaction, Nashville again made a prudent (but difficult) decision to move their captain, which paid dividends. Subban will be an integral part of their franchise for years.

Many teams are overly rigid in sticking to their core when it is obviously in need of change. Nashville not only shifted their core in a few short years, but adapted on the fly to a changing game. Poile acquired the necessary personnel to go deeper into the playoffs in an exceptionally talented Central division, and all GMs would be wise to look to his example. The blueprint for a win-win trade is to isolate what your team desperately needs, who can fill that need, and being willing to part with important players to acquire your man. Winning the value comparison on paper isn’t what should truly matter to GMs, Taking risks to make weaknesses strengths will never be a safe or easy move, but it is the sort of mentality that can win a franchise a Stanley Cup. This offseason, perhaps there will be more moves of this ilk.

East Notes: Pittsburgh Free Agents, Morin, Borowiecki

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The Penguins have yet to engage in contract extensions with any of their pending free agents (restricted or unrestricted), GM Jim Rutherford told Jonathan Bombulie of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.  Instead, the team plans to wait until Pittsburgh finishes up their postseason run and then deal with contract talks at that time.  While it potentially presents a situation where a bunch of deals need to get done in a short period of time, Rutherford noted he used the same idea during Carolina’s Stanley Cup run in 2006 and it worked quite well:

“When Carolina won the Cup in ’06, I think I had 13 free agents to sign in 10 days, and for me, it was a lot easier that way. Because you cut out all of the baloney in between. You go around and around about things that don’t even matter in negotiations. When you get down to the end, you get right to the point and get it done.”

The team has several free agents of note to deal with before the end of June.  Defensemen Justin Schultz and Brian Dumoulin, as well as winger Conor Sheary are all restricted while center Nick Bonino and blueliner Trevor Daley are among those who are slated to hit the open market as unrestricted free agents in July which means Rutherford will have his work cut out for him when the playoffs end.

Other notes from around the East:

  • Flyers prospect Samuel Morin recently underwent surgery on both of his wrists, notes CSN Philly’s Tim Panaccio. There has been no announcement as to when the injury occurred; Morin didn’t miss any action during his postseason run with Philadelphia’s AHL affiliate in Lehigh Valley.  Morin is expected to make a push for a regular roster spot with the Flyers next season on what is likely to be a considerably younger back end.
  • Although he won’t be available when the puck drops on Game One of their Conference Final series against Pittsburgh later today, Senators defenseman Mark Borowiecki is expected to be available around the midway point of the series, reports Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun. In the meantime, the team will continue to rely on Ben Harpur and Fredrik Claesson to hold down that spot in the lineup.

Snapshots: Simek, Carey, AHL

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While just today Jan Rutta’s agent told us that his client was getting NHL offers, it seems that perhaps another Czech defender will soon sign. TSN analyst Ray Ferraro responded on Twitter to the fact that Vancouver GM Jim Benning is only watching games in Paris at the World Championships, saying that the most interesting players are Rutta and teammate Radim Simek. There have been reports floating around that Simek has already signed an NHL deal, and it is supported by his own words that he plans on coming across the Atlantic this season.

Ferraro seemed to agree with the idea that Simek was already signed, though still had no details on who the team is. The 24-year old is another puck-moving defender that can put up points and skate well enough to make the jump, though he didn’t have quite the offensive impact of Rutta or Jakub Jerabek (another Czech teammate) this season. While the Sharks are rumored in the above article as having scouted him this year, several teams likely have shown interest at the tournament.

  • The Washington Capitals placed Paul Carey on waivers today, with the intent of sending him back to the Hershey Bears for the remainder of the AHL playoff run. Hershey will play game three in their series with the Providence Bruins later tonight after splitting the first two matchups. The addition of Carey will certainly help; he scored 55 points in 55 games this season for the Bears, and led the team in goals with 24.
  • Speaking of the AHL, the league has announced re-alignment for next season. The Charlotte Checkers will be moving from the Central Division to the Atlantic, while several changes will hit the North. The Senators will now be based out of Belleville, ON while the Albany Devils are moving to the vacant Binghamton. The Devils were one of the worst-attended teams in the league despite their recent success. The St. John’s IceCaps will also be moving, heading closer to their parent team in Montreal. They’ll become the Laval Rocket for next season, and stay in the North Division.

PHR Originals: Weekend Edition

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Alongside breaking NHL news, ProHockeyRumors staff pen original and engaging work. This weekend brought pieces on individual teams’ expansion draft issues, offseason considerations, and free agency. In case you missed them, here are the top five original pieces published this weekend:

Blue Jackets Must Convince Hartnell to Waive NMC
The Columbus Blue Jackets had an excellent season spurred by the exciting play of several young forwards. The team faces a potential setback, however, if they lose one of those young players to the Vegas Golden Knights in the NHL expansion draft this summer. The biggest obstacle preventing the Blue Jackets from protecting all their young prospects is aging veteran forward Scott Hartnell. Hartnell has a No-Movement Cause, and the expansion draft rules require that any player with a NMC must be protected in the draft. That means that Columbus must protect Hartnell over one of its more promising younger players. The Blue Jackets can solve this issue by convincing Hartnell to waive his NMC.

Read more

Offseason Keys: Vancouver Canucks

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While the expansion draft is set to headline a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months ahead.  Here is a closer look at what lies ahead for the Vancouver Canucks.

2016-17 was a year to forget for Vancouver.  Their season was mired with several slumps and what seemed like a ticking time bomb with their head coaching situation.  The inevitable happened early in the offseason with Willie Desjardins being let go with AHL coach Travis Green getting tasked to right the ship but there is still much work to be done.  Here are some of the things that GM Jim Benning will likely be looking to address this offseason.

New Deal For Horvat

There haven’t been a lot of bright spots for the Canucks lately but Bo Horvat’s continued progression would certainly be towards the top of the list.  He has taken on a bigger role in each season and has made solid strides at both ends of the rink.

Now, the 22 year old is set to enter restricted free agency for the first time (but does not have arbitration eligibility).  Benning has noted recently that they would like to focus on a long-term pact and skip the bridge deal with Horvat.  The team does have some financial flexibility to work with when it comes to the salary cap so there at least shouldn’t be concerns on that end.

As Horvat is widely viewed as the closest to being a cornerstone piece of the franchise in the years to come, it will be interesting to see if the team looks to make his new deal the benchmark contract in that no signings down the road can be for more money than this deal.  Given all this, negotiations may take a while with Benning even suggesting that it could be a discussion that goes on for most of the summer.

New Goaltender

Dec 23, 2016; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Vancouver Canucks goalie Jacob Markstrom (25) guards his net against the Calgary Flames during the second period at Scotiabank Saddledome. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY SportsWith Ryan Miller heading for unrestricted free agency, Vancouver will have a decision to make.  They also have Jacob Markstrom’s three year, $11MM contract kicking in and as a result, they’ll likely look to give him more starts which could push Miller out the door.

There are a handful of second tier options slated to be available on the open market in July while the upcoming expansion draft may also have a few other players changing places.  It’s a year where supply will likely outweigh demand which should have Benning working with the upper hand.

A big decision the GM will need to make here is what type of term to give out.  Thatcher Demko is still quite likely to be the goalie of the future and although he just finished his first pro campaign, the expectation has been that he’ll be ready fairly quickly.  Accordingly, whoever they do bring in to split duties with Markstrom is probably going to wind up receiving a short-term contract.

Scoring Help

Aside from the Avalanche (the one team who finished behind Vancouver in the standings), the Canucks were at the bottom of the league in goal production.  The Sedin twins are on the downswing of their respective careers (and have suggested in the past that they don’t want to leave Vancouver despite their current situation) and the team doesn’t have any players who are poised to jump into top roles next season.

That isn’t to say that there isn’t help coming as the late season addition of Nikolay Goldobin was certainly a promising one and 2015 draft pick Brock Boeser, who joined the team out of college, can also help.  While they’re likely to receive lots of ice time, the team will likely want to shield them somewhat from taking on too much too quickly.

As a result, it won’t be surprising to see Vancouver go after some scoring help in free agency even though on the surface it would seem to go against the idea of rebuilding.  That would ease the pressure off the young core and allow them to transition into the post-Sedin era, which may just be one year away.  Of course, with a lot of teams looking for scoring help in a light free agent market, this is something that’s much easier said than done for Benning to try to accomplish this offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Snapshots: GM Report Cards, Rangers, Nashville’s Defense

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Hockey Graphs takes an in-depth look at the 31 general managers in the NHL (including Vegas and those who were recently let go–Dean Lombardi and Tim Murray) using a variety of different metrics. Leading the pack is Nashville’s Dave Poile, while the Canucks’ Jim Benning rounds out the list at number thirty-one. It’s a list that relies heavily on advanced metrics and other measurements, staying in line with Hockey Graph’s dedication to taking the emotion out of hockey analysis and instead, using the quantitative side (with a smattering of qualitative analysis) to create the list. Part one of the article helps make sense of how they came up with their rankings while giving a background to the metrics used.

  • Newsday’s Steve Zipay reports that the Rangers aren’t looking too far ahead as they try to even up their series against Ottawa tomorrow night. After drubbing the Sens 4-1, the Rangers have an advantage as Bobby Ryan and Zack Smith are both injured, and the Sens will have to “alter” lines. Several Rangers were adamant that while falling into a 3-1 hole would be difficult to overcome, netminder Henrik Lundqvist said they must take it one game at a time.  Zipay adds that though Rick Nash didn’t practice, he will absolutely be playing in Game 4.
  • ESPN’s Chuck Gormley writes that its the Nashville blueline is wreaking havoc through these playoffs, pacing the Preds’ strong play and making a case for the organization’s first Stanley Cup. The team’s defenseman has eight goals and fourteen assists in just eight games, and according to Gormley, it’s looking more and more like the trade for P.K. Subban will tilt heavily in Nashville’s favor as the victor of the deal. Gormley highlights each player on the blueline, and writing that should the Predators continue on the path they are, it could be an epic matchup in the next round should Edmonton continue its ascent through the playoffs.

Vancouver Canucks Sign Andrey Pedan To One-Year Extension

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Andrey Pedan has signed a one-year extension with the Vancouver Canucks for the 2017-18 season. Pedan was set to become a restricted free agent this summer. The deal will be a two-way contract worth $750K at the NHL level, and will leave him as an RFA again in the summer of 2018.

Pedan spent most of this year with the Utica Comets after making his NHL debut last season, though he was up with the Canucks for multiple stretches without getting into any game action. The 23-year old has yet to really make his mark for the Canucks, despite costing them a third-round pick in 2014 when they acquired him from the New York Islanders. Perhaps he’ll be used more frequently for the team next season as they head into a “rebuild” phase, though they currently have several defenders he’d have to hop over on the depth chart.

Always considered an interesting prospect, Pedan has all the tools to be successful in the NHL. He’s big—6’5″ 215-lbs—strong and fast enough to keep up with smaller players. He also has a good first pass and plays with a physical edge. Something about him hasn’t ever been able to put it all together though, and despite some solid point production last year he hasn’t been able to get into the NHL lineup very much. Perhaps it’s a case of a big defenseman just taking a little bit longer to develop, but as his point totals go down and penalty minutes go up, he’s getting closer to being considered a former-prospect instead of a current one. He’ll turn 24 this summer, and will try to prove he belongs at the NHL level.

Pedan’s agent Dan Milstein of Gold Star Hockey was actually the first to break the news on Twitter, while CapFriendly reported the financial details.

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