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PHR Playoff Primer: Dallas Stars vs. Seattle Kraken

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With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We begin our second-round coverage with the Western Conference matchup between the Dallas Stars and Seattle Kraken.

The Seattle fanbase waited a long time for a team to cheer for and the Seattle Kraken have given them something to cheer about in just their second season by knocking off the defending Stanley Cup champions in seven games. The Dallas Stars on the other hand were able to dispatch of the Minnesota Wild in just six games on the back of incredible goaltending from Jake Oettinger. Their second-round matchup will mark the first time the two teams have met in the playoffs.

What a difference a season makes. A year ago, Kraken general manager Ron Francis looked as though he’d butchered the expansion draft as Seattle finished near the bottom of the NHL standings. But, fast forward one year later and the Kraken have their first 100-point season, a playoff series victory, and the opportunity for more.  For Dallas, they are just three years removed from a Stanley Cup finals appearance in which they lost in six games to the Tampa Bay Lightning. While the Stars do still have several of the core pieces from that 2020 team, they’ve added a lot of elite young talent to mix in with their older core pieces.

It’s hard to get excited for a series in which the two teams have never met in the playoffs before, but Dallas quietly had one of the most exciting series of the first round, and Seattle provided ample fireworks of their own. This series might not have the draw that some other series may have, but there will be plenty of star power on the ice for Dallas, while Seattle has one of the most balanced lineups in the entire NHL and can outwork almost any team.

Regular Season Performance

Dallas Stars: 51-22-9, 111 points, +43 goal differential
Seattle Kraken: 46-28-8, 100 points, +33 goal differential.

Head-To-Head

March 11, 2023: Dallas 4, Seattle 3 (OT)

March 13, 2023: Dallas 5, Seattle 2

March 21, 2023: Seattle 5, Dallas 4 (OT)

Dallas takes the season series 2-0-1

Team Storylines

One might not think these teams would have much in the way of a rivalry, however for ten days in mid-March they saw a lot of each other. The teams played three times and developed a bit of hate in that time. While a lot has happened since then, there could be carryover.

The biggest storyline in this series will be the high-end skill of the Dallas Stars against the workmanlike attitude of the Seattle Kraken. Dallas has the offense and the goaltending to make a deep run in these playoffs and have much higher expectations than the Kraken, however Seattle has shown an incredible amount of heart this season and are playing with house money at this point. Sometimes the pressure can cause a team to wilt, and sometimes no pressure at all can make a team play fast and loose. It’ll be interesting to see it play out.

The Dallas Stars play with a ton of skill and a ton of speed, led by Jason Robertson, they can put the puck in your net in several ways and can push the pace, or slow down the game if they need to grind out a win. They still possess Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and a few other players from the 2020 run to the finals that know how to get the job done in the playoffs. They have the confidence in their group and their goalie to get it done. Seattle on the other can also play with a lot of pace, they come at you in waves, line after line can contribute on the offensive end. Every line can score, but they don’t have the gamebreakers that Dallas has.

On the backend, both teams have strong blue lines that can help generate offense. Seattle has the size advantage with a couple of towering forces that can crash and bang and clear the front of the net, but Dallas may possess the strength advantage with a physically imposing lineup in which every man in the unit is over six foot. Dallas has the most elite puck mover in Miro Heiskanen, but this year’s version of Vince Dunn isn’t far off, and Seattle has a better collection of point producers and a deeper unit of six. While the Stars defense can do it all, Seattle’s defense can all do it. Coach Dave Hakstol has somehow managed to spread his defensive minutes about as evenly as you will ever see for a defensive unit. I would give the advantage to Seattle in this area as they seem to find an extra gear late in games and have a good track record of shutting the door on their opponents.

In goal, Dallas boasts one of the best goaltenders in the world in Jake Oettinger. His playoff resume is short, but it is strong. He was dominant in the first round, and should he play at that level in this series, Dallas will be tough to beat. Regular season numbers would tell us that Oettinger gives Dallas a huge advantage over Seattle in net, but in round one Seattle received elite goaltending as well. Philipp Grubauer finally gave Seattle the goaltending they thought they were getting when they signed the former Avalanche goalie to a six year $35.4MM contract in 2021. The German netminder hasn’t been able to sustain much success over his two years with the Kraken, but if he can build on his impressive stretch of play in round one, Seattle will have a punchers chance to advance.

Prediction

Anytime an elite goaltender is involved in a series it is always difficult to bet against them. Jake Oettinger has proven himself to be one of the best in the world and so far, has shown an ability to rise to the occasion when the games mean the most. If he can steal a game or two in this series, it will give Dallas a sizeable advantage and could be the difference in the series.

The other element that comes into play is experience. Dallas has a ton of players who have been here before, and while Seattle has some veterans with Stanley Cup playoff experience, it isn’t on the same level. This small detail could be the difference maker for the Stars if they can draw on that experience and find that extra push.

The prediction: Dallas win in seven games.

Jared McCann Misses Practice, Likely Out For Game 6

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The Colorado Avalanche will be without defenseman Josh Manson tonight in a must-win Game 6 against the Seattle Kraken, head coach Jared Bednar told reporters. Manson played just 8:27 in Wednesday’s Game 5 before exiting with an undisclosed injury.

Luckily for Colorado, Manson’s lineup spot will be filled by Cale Makar, who’s returning from a one-game suspension for a hit on Kraken forward Jared McCann in Game 4. The Avs are hoping for a big performance from the superstar defenseman tonight to keep their season alive.

  • Staying in the Avalanche/Kraken series, McCann did not join Seattle for practice this morning, per head coach Dave Hakstol, suggesting the 40-goal scorer will miss his second straight game. It means undrafted rookie Tye Kartye will likely remain in McCann’s spot for Game 6 after scoring his first NHL goal in his first NHL game in Game 5. McCann had just one assist in four playoff games prior to exiting the series.

Seattle Kraken Sign Jagger Firkus

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The Seattle Kraken have agreed to terms on a contract with one of their top prospects. Per a team release, Jagger Firkus has signed an entry-level contract with the club. The three-year agreement will begin next season and run through the 2025-26 season and comes with an annual cap hit of $950k.

The 18-year-old winger was a second-round pick of the Kraken in the 2022 NHL Draft. He scored 36 goals and 80 points in 66 games in 2021-22 for the Moose Jaw Warriors before being selected by the Kraken. This season, he bumped those numbers up to 40 goals and 88 points in 66 games and helped the Warriors push the Winnipeg Ice to six games in their second round series by scoring ten goals and 21 points in just ten WHL Playoff games.

Having only begun play in the NHL in 2021, the Kraken do not have a deep crop of prospects at their disposal, but Firkus is certainly among their best. He is a skilled offensive winger who can stickhandle in tight spaces, create offence for teammates with a creative pass and can also beat a goalie clean with a laser wrist shot. He looks to be a potential top six winger for the Kraken in the future.

That could take some time though, as Firkus is still eligible to return to Junior next season as a 19 year old. That is probably the case, which could slide this entry-level contract ahead another year and have it begin in the 2024-25 season which would be his first full pro season.

The Kraken are leading the Colorado Avalanche 3-2 in their first round series right now, and while the Warriors season is over and Firkus is eligible to join the team, that seems unlikely at this point and the timing of this contract is more about his Junior season ending and having time to focus on negotiating and not the Kraken looking for extra bodies in their current playoff run.

Jared McCann To Miss At Least One Game

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The Seattle Kraken were able to take down the Colorado Avalanche in overtime to even their first-round series at two games apiece but will now have to go into game five without their top offensive player. Head coach Dave Hakstol told reporters including Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet that Jared McCann will miss the next game and possibly longer after leaving early last night.

After a partial breakaway during the first period that was stopped by Philipp Grubauer, McCann was run hard into the boards by Cale Makar and suffered an injury. The Colorado defenseman was originally given a five-minute major, but after review, it was reduced to a two-minute minor.

Makar was booed the rest of the night after removing Seattle’s top forward, a player that experienced a breakout campaign this year. McCann scored 40 goals for the Kraken and reached the 70-point mark for the first time in his career. His scoring came in all forms, with 30 goals at even strength, seven on the powerplay, and three short-handed.

For Seattle, losing McCann will be a huge blow to their chances. While their lineup is built on depth and versatility, there’s no question he brings the most offensive juice.

The series continues tomorrow, back in Colorado.

Morgan Geekie Out For Game 3

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The Colorado Avalanche are getting set for Game 3 of their playoff series with the Seattle Kraken but look to be without the services of a couple of players who suited up in Game 2. When the warmup began, Valeri Nichushkin and Darren Helm were surprisingly not among the players on the ice according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet.

  • Also missing this game will be Morgan Geekie of the Seattle Kraken, according to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times. Geekie scored nine goals and 28 points in 69 games for the Kraken this season and already has one goal in this series as well. He was ruled out for a maintenance day at the morning skate, but clearly whatever he is dealing with is more serious than just a maintenance from practice.

Tye Kartye is AHL's Most Outstanding Rookie

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Earlier today, the American Hockey League announced a major award winner from the 2022-23 season, naming Tye Kartye of the Coachella Valley Firebirds as the Dudley (Red) Garrett Memorial Award winner, which goes to the league’s most outstanding rookie each season. Kartye is under contract with the Seattle Kraken of the NHL, signing towards the end of last season after a three-year stint for the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds of the OHL.

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PHR Playoff Primer: Colorado Avalanche vs. Seattle Kraken

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With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We wrap up our First Round coverage with the Central Division matchup between the Colorado Avalanche and Seattle Kraken.

Some in NHL circles had optimistic expectations for the initial Seattle Kraken roster after their expansion draft and free agency period. While there were notable names general manager Ron Francis opted not to add to his lineup, the team he constructed was analytically sound and, if their transition game held up, could be competitive in a weak Western Conference.

Needless to say, it didn’t turn out that way. A finish near the bottom of the league gave Seattle two high-end center prospects in their first two drafts, with one of them the frontrunner for this year’s Calder Trophy. Slightly improved goaltending and high-end depth scoring have positioned the Kraken as the most-improved expansion team from year 1 to 2 in NHL history, but their first foray into the postseason won’t be easy.

Despite finishing with 100 points, Seattle failed to clinch a divisional playoff spot thanks to other divisional rivals going on massive winning streaks at the right time. Unfortunately, that means they face off against the Colorado Avalanche, who finished third in the conference despite significant injuries and, if you happened to forget, are the defending Stanley Cup champions.

Regular Season Performance

Colorado: 51-24-7, 109 points, +54 goal differential
Seattle: 46-28-8, 100 points, +33 goal differential

Head-To-Head

October 21, 2022: Seattle 3, Colorado 2
January 21, 2023: Colorado 2, Seattle 1 (SO)
March 5, 2023: Seattle 3, Colorado 2 (OT)

Seattle takes the season series 2-0-1

Team Storylines

Seattle will need all hands on deck if they’re to win their first-ever playoff series against Colorado. The Avalanche are as healthy as they’re going to get to start the postseason, and they finished the regular season on an 8-1-1 tear.

That means a lot of pressure on rookie Matthew Beniers, the presumptive Calder Trophy winner who centers the team’s top line between Jared McCann and Jordan Eberle. He finished fourth on the team in scoring with 57 points in 80 games, but it’s his strong two-way game that grabbed the attention of most this season, especially for such a young player.

It begs the question — will Beniers see matchups against Nathan MacKinnon? If so, can his promising defensive analytics yield success for the Kraken in helping to slow down one of the best playoff performers in recent memory? Few would be surprised to see coach Dave Hakstol utilize a more experienced option at center against MacKinnon, such as Alexander Wennberg or Yanni Gourde, but Beniers’ all-around play in the regular season has earned him a chance at heavy usage in the playoffs.

The larger factor that could lead to a Kraken upset, though, is their well-balanced attack. Seattle had six 20-goal scorers this season, including bottom-six talents Oliver Bjorkstrand and Daniel Sprong. While goals from your bottom six are generally a key to success in the playoffs, some numbers suggest the Kraken have scored more goals than they’ve earned. The Kraken scored 32.6 goals above expected at even-strength this season, per MoneyPuck, leading the league by a wide margin. If their elite finishing runs dry, it could be a quick exit for Seattle.

In net for Seattle will be Philipp Grubauer, who had some decent playoff outings in past years while a member of the Avalanche. He’s seemed to regain some of his former touch after an incredibly disappointing first year with the Kraken, posting a 14-7-3 record and .902 save percentage in 26 games since the calendar turned to 2023.

For Seattle to pull off the upset, he’ll need to match his Colorado counterpart. Alexandar Georgiev has quietly given the Avalanche high-end goaltending in his first season with the team. The 27-year-old silenced all doubts by starting 62 games, leading the league with 40 wins, and stopping 21.9 goals above expected (MoneyPuck). He’ll be making his first career playoff start tonight, though, only appearing in two games in relief during last year’s playoff run with the New York Rangers.

Colorado’s secondary objective in this series, other than continuing their championship defense, will be to escape without another significant injury. They’ll be without captain Gabriel Landeskog for the entire postseason, and all of their right-side defenders (Cale Makar, Bowen Byram, and Josh Manson) have missed significant periods of time.

Staying healthy allows Colorado to match Seattle at their strength — scoring from the middle six. Colorado’s top talent obviously overtakes that of Seattle, and while only Artturi Lehkonen registered 20 goals this year outside of MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, a healthy group of depth forwards can still score enough to give Colorado a series win.

Prediction

There’s no question the Kraken will come out excited, especially given their opponent. But hoping for some expansion team magic in the style of the Vegas Golden Knights’ first playoff appearance may be a little misguided.

Questions about consistency in goal still plague the Kraken, and, if Georgiev maintains his regular season performance, are enough to be the difference in this series alone. Colorado’s healthy top four on defense still remains the best in the West and are a viable antidote to Seattle’s consistent offense.

The prediction: Colorado wins in five games.

Andre Burakovsky To Miss Start Of Playoffs

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Seattle Kraken winger Andre Burakovsky won’t be available next week when the team plays their first-ever postseason games, the team announced early Friday morning.

Burakovsky, 28, underwent a surgical procedure to address a recurring lower-body injury, the team said. He has not played since February 7, when he sustained the injury after playing just 21 seconds in a game against the New York Islanders.

While Seattle doesn’t know their first-round opponent yet, it will be one of the Colorado Avalanche or Dallas Stars, both well-rounded teams with playoff experience. Burakovsky’s offense is a major loss, as his 39 points in 49 games ranked second on the team in points per game this season (0.80).

If there is a team built to withstand the loss of a top-six forward, though, it’s Seattle. Depth scoring has been their hallmark this year, with only one of their 12 regular forwards (Morgan Geekie) failing to pot 10 goals this season. Even then, Geekie scored nine in 69 games.

It’s a tough pill to swallow for Burakovsky as well, who might miss a chance to play a series against the team he won a Stanley Cup with just last season. After a career-high 61 points with Colorado last year, Burakovsky signed a five-year, $27.5MM contract with Seattle in free agency.

Seattle didn’t issue a timeline for his return, but it seems unlikely they’ll have his services at any time during the first round. If Burakovsky is to play again this season, he’ll likely need to have his teammates rally for a major upset.

Seattle Kraken Sign Logan Morrison

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The Seattle Kraken have signed forward Logan Morrison from the Ottawa 67’s. Morrison will be paid $950K in the NHL, and $82.5K in the AHL over the course of three years, as the contract begins at the start of the 2023-24 season.

For the majority of his career in the OHL, Morrison primarily played for the Hamilton Bulldogs. Last season, he set career highs in goals and points, scoring 34 goals and 100 points over the course of the OHL season. Aside from the regular season, Morrison provided a lot of offense on the Bulldogs’ run to the Memorial Cup Finals, scoring 17 goals and 22 assists in 19 playoff games.

This season, Morrison has been up to much of the same, scoring 40 goals and 54 assists split between Hamilton and Ottawa. The move to Ottawa came from a January trade, where Morrison was moved from Hamilton for six future draft picks.

In the playoffs this season, Ottawa has already moved on to the second round, beating the Oshawa Generals in five games. In those five games, Morrison scored seven goals and also added in three assists. Up next, the 67’s will take on the Peterborough Petes, and the first-place team will be a team to watch as the OHL playoffs continue.

Snapshots: Wright, DeBrincat, Gustafsson

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Shane Wright’s whirlwind season continues today as the Seattle Kraken announced he would be reporting to the AHL. Wright was the fourth overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft and started the season in the NHL with the Kraken but was a frequent healthy scratch. He played just eight NHL games, scoring one goal and two points and was sent to the AHL’s Coachella Valley Firebirds for a conditioning stint where he scored four goals in five games.

Wright was also loaned to Team Canada for the World Juniors and helped them win a gold medal by scoring seven points in seven games and serving as the team’s captain. He then returned to the OHL where he was traded by the Kingston Frontenacs to the Windsor Spitfires and proceeded to put up 15 goals and 37 points in 20 Junior games. Wright’s Spitfires were the top ranked team in the OHL’s Western Conference but were shockingly swept in the first round of the playoffs by the Kitchener Rangers.

Now that Wright’s Junior season is complete, he is eligible to play pro in either the NHL or AHL and the Kraken have chosen to assign him back to the Firebirds who are on the verge of their own postseason. They are in second place in the entire AHL and have just three regular season games remaining before the playoffs begin. It will be interesting to see how well Wright performs in the AHL playoffs after scoring one goal and three points in his four OHL postseason contests.

  • The Ottawa Senators are going to do everything they can to keep Alex DeBrincat next season. According to Bruce Garrioch of TSN, Senators general manager Pierre Dorion has said he will extend a qualifying offer to DeBrincat if there is not a long-term deal already in place this offseason. The 25-year-old winger has scored 27 goals and 66 points in 80 games during his first season with the Senators. Though his cap hit is $6.4MM, he is making $9MM this season so a qualifying offer would be a one-year extension for the 2023-24 season matching this year’s salary of $9MM.
  • Erik Gustafsson was prepared to play for the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight but left during warmup and was ruled out of the game. The Maple Leafs released a statement saying Gustafsson would not play due to an upper-body injury. Luke Schenn took his place in the lineup on short notice. Gustafsson has played nine games with the Maple Leafs since being acquired at the trade deadline, and has four points, including a three point night against the Montreal Canadiens in his last outing.

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