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What Your Team Is Thankful For: Nashville Predators

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will look at what teams are thankful for as the season nears the quarter point of completion. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We take a look at what’s gone well in the first month and what could improve as the season rolls on. So far we’ve covered ANA, ARZ, BUF, CGY, CAR, CBJ, COL, DET, LAK, NYI, STL, TOR, WSH, and VGK.

Who are the Nashville Predators most thankful for?

David Poile.

Ryan JohansenNot only did Poile orchestrate trades for P.K. Subban and Ryan Johansen that resulted in a Stanley Cup Finals berth in their first full season with the team, but he has repeatedly locked up assets for reasonable contracts and once again used his trading skills to bring in a key player. Over the past two summers, the Predators had several high profile restricted free agents to sign. Johansen, Filip Forsberg, and Viktor Arvidsson were all without deals but are now locked in for at least five seasons together.

Poile was able to sign the trio to a combined $18.25MM cap hit because of previous deals he’d struck, most notably with Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi and Mattias Ekholm. That group is currently earning only a combined $10.25MM, despite each being regarded as potential top-pairing options.

He’s done it again this season, by bringing in Kyle Turris and immediately extending the center for another six seasons without any signing bonuses or trade protection. Turris has played just nine games since coming over from the Ottawa Senators but has fit in perfectly, recording seven points already. Poile has never been one to shy away from long contracts or big trades, and it’s paying off again in the standings this year.

What are the Predators most thankful for?

Improving health.

The end of last year’s playoffs must have been hard to watch for the Predators front office, as Johansen, Kevin Fiala and others went down to freak injuries just as they were approaching the Finals. That injury luck carried into the summer, when doctors told the Predators in September that Ellis could need another six months to rehab his surgically repaired knee. He’d hurt it in those Stanley Cup Finals, but played through pain in Game 6 anyway.

Ellis joined teammates on the ice today for their morning skate, the first time he’d attended a team practice since the surgery according to Adam Vingan of The Tennessean. While it isn’t at all a signal that he’s set to return early, just the fact that he’s “on track” is good news for Predators fans. A return from the 26-year old will be a huge addition for the team, as he is as important as any other defender to the club when fully healthy.

What would the Predators be even more thankful for?

Someone slowing down the St. Louis Blues and Winnipeg Jets.

No matter how well the Predators play, they still are in a division with two teams that look equally dangerous. The Blues and Jets have played just about as well as you could this season, and both sit above Nashville in the standings (not to mention the Dallas Stars and Chicago Blackhawks looming in the shadows). All three teams have some similarities, but the Predators will hope that their experience from last season will take them to the next level this year.

Winnipeg is especially green, but loaded with young talent throughout their roster. With a goaltender who is finally stopping the pucks on a regular basis, they look primed to wrench open their window of success a little early.

St. Louis has been arguably the best team in the NHL right from the start, armed with an incredibly deep forward group and a Norris candidate defenseman. Even with some struggles from Jake Allen recently, the team keeps winning and could be unstoppable if he can find his form once again. The 27-year old goaltender struggled early on last year as well, before going on a Vezina-caliber run through the second half and early playoffs. St. Louis doesn’t look like they’re going away anytime soon.

What should be on the Predators Holiday Wish List?

Another scoring winger.

Despite locking up their core long-term this summer, the Predators actually have a bit of cap space to play with as they head into the months leading up to the trade deadline. Though young forward Fiala has been solid on the powerplay and Turris has added another dimension down the middle, they still rely too heavily on their top three to handle the scoring load. One more forward capable of playing somewhere in the middle-six could push them over the edge.

After already dealing Samuel Girard, Vladislav Kamenev and a second-round pick to obtain Turris, it’s not clear if Poile wants to sacrifice more future assets for help this season. But if a big, scoring winger were to shake loose at the deadline, they’d surely have to take a look.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $68,913,333 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Kevin Fiala (Two years remaining, $863K)
G Juuse Saros (One year remaining, $693K)

Potential Bonuses

Fiala: $500K
Saros: $183K

Total: $683K

A team that is designed for a Stanley Cup run probably shouldn’t have too many players on entry level contracts and the Predators have just the two. Fiala is the team’s top young potential star as the former 2014 first-rounder found himself getting called up to the Predators and logged 54 games last year, scoring 11 goals. He even managed to cement himself in the starting lineup and played in five playoff games, scoring two goals, but then broke his femur and his playoffs were cut short. Nevertheless, the team is expecting a big year from the young wing and some even have him penciled in on the team’s second line. As for Saros, the 22-year-old goalie had a pretty good showing last year, playing in 21 contests (19 starts) and putting up a 2.35 GAA and a .923 save percentage. He should be able to shoulder the load as the backup and right now looks to be Nashville’s goaltender of the future.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Alexei Emelin ($3MM, UFA)
F Scott Hartnell ($1MM, UFA)
F Cody McLeod ($800K, UFA)
D Yannick Weber ($650K, UFA)
D Matt Irwin ($650K, UFA)
D Anthony Bitetto ($613, UFA)
F Miikka Salomaki ($613K, RFA)

The team, already immersed in quality defenders, picked up another veteran defender in Emelin this offseason in a trade with the Vegas Golden Knights, who picked him from the Montreal Canadiens in the expansion draft. A solid veteran, Emelin, should fill in for the injured Ellis until he returns in December and then provide some veteran depth throughout the rest of the season, which should keep Nashville’s defensive corps as strong as it had always been and he will likely be allowed to move on when his contract expires next year.

Hartnell returns to Nashville after 10 years. Originally drafted in the first round by Nashville in 2000, the 35-year-old forward played six years for the Predators before being traded to Philadelphia. He has scored 314 goals, but only managed 13 in his last year in Columbus. The team hopes his presence will spark the team for another Stanley Cup run. The rest, including Weber, Irwin and McLeod

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Snapshots: Ovechkin, Air Canada Centre, Predators

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Alex Ovechkin is coming off another disappointing playoff exit at the hands of the Pittsburgh Penguins, and earlier this offseason GM Brian MacLellan said that his superstar forward would need to train differently this offseason to make sure the speed of the game didn’t leave him behind. Ovechkin scored fewer than 50 goals in a full season for the first time since 2011-12, posting just 33 markers all year. It seems he’s taken it to heart, as a report from Tom Gulitti of NHL.com has Ovechkin showing up to optional workouts in Washington markedly thinner.

Ovechkin played last season at 239, but teammates are saying he’s definitely leaner this year which hopefully will translate into more success on the ice. It’s important to note that even though Ovechkin’s goal total dropped, he still posted 69 points due to a big jump in assists. The Capitals will begin the season on Thursday, October 5th when they take on the Ottawa Senators.

  • The Toronto Maple Leafs have reached a landmark agreement with Scotiabank for the naming rights to their arena. According to Rick Westhead of TSN the bank will pay $800MM (CAD) for the 20-year agreement that will change the name from the Air Canada Centre to Scotiabank Arena on July 1, 2018. The deal is the biggest naming sponsorship in North American sports history, and will make the incredibly wealthy Maple Leafs franchise worth even more. It marks the second NHL building named after the Canadian bank, following Calgary’s Scotiabank Saddledome. The Ottawa Senators’ Scotiabank Place was renamed the Canadian Tire Centre in 2013.
  • Any fans who bought a Viktor Arvidsson jersey during his breakout season last year will be disappointed today, as the team announced that he’ll be changing to #33 for next season. Frederick Gaudreau and Vladislav Kamenev will also change, claiming #89 and #91 respectively. Kamanev’s change is the most interesting, after he played just two games with the Predators last season. Though he was expected to press for a roster spot after another big AHL season, this actually may be more evidence that he’ll be given a chance with the NHL club at some point this year.

Nashville Predators Next Goal Is Locking Up Johansen

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The Nashville Predators got a major roadblock out of the way yesterday when they signed 24-year-old wing Viktor Arvidsson to a seven-year deal. The $29.75MM signing locks up another franchise cornerstone at a reasonable price. General manager David Poile has successfully worked out similar deals in the past that have locked up others like Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis. In fact those five cornerstones on a Stanley Cup finalist team, will only cost them a $20.5MM cap hit combined next season, tweets LNH.com’s Arpon Basu.

However, the work doesn’t end there, according to NBC Sports Cam Tucker, who says the team now must turn their attention to No. 1 center Ryan Johansen. The 24-year-old center had a big year for Nashville, putting up 14 goals and 61 points. If it hadn’t been for a thigh injury in the playoffs, he could have shown his value to the team even more, although he still played in 14 playoff games, putting up 13 points. Despite that injury, Johansen should get quite a raise from a year ago.

Johansen, who was acquired from the Columbus Blue Jackets in early 2016 for Seth Jones, signed a three-year bridge deal at $4MM per season while with Columbus. Now, he should be up for an even bigger deal. The Predators should have more than $14.5MM to spend (according to CapFriendly), so money shouldn’t be an issue for Poile.

Viktor Arvidsson Signs 7-Year Extension With Nashville

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First reported byElliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, and then confirmed by Adam Vingan of the Tenessean, Nashville has secured a long-term deal to lock up their restricted free agent Viktor Arvidsson, forgoing the need for an arbitrator’s ruling. The crafty forward’s contract is good for 7 seasons, at an AAV of only $4.25 MM.

Arvidsson’s arbitration hearing took place earlier today, and the figures that were being thrown out earlier nearly assured that Nashville was bound to get a solid deal. Arvidsson asked for only one year at $4.5 MM whereas the team opted for two years at a mere $2.75 MM. Arvidsson was the team’s leading goal scorer, and one of the biggest surprises of the season. His offensive explosion helped carry the team to the Stanley Cup Final, and at only 24 should be a huge part of the team’s future for a long time. His advanced statistics, in addition to his 30+ goal season, really make the player attractive league-wide. His 55 % Corsi For puts him in elite company among  top-six wingers facing similar level of competition.

Getting a 61-point winger on a cost-controlled contract for the next 7 years is truly impressive work for GM David Poile. It should be kept in mind that there is a small element of risk here, as this was a total breakout season after a mediocre first pro year which saw him score only 16 points through 56 games. if Arvidsson can maintain anywhere near last season’s level of productivity, though, he will be incredibly cost-effective. His remarkable progression basically made James Neal expendable in the expansion draft, and now it seems that Poile is confident enough to lock the player down for the foreseeable future. At only 5’9, the player has faced doubters who question his long-term value, but he is now unquestionably a core piece in Tennessee.

When taken in reference another of this year’s RFAs, Tomas Tatar was awarded earlier today with a deal worth $5.3 MM AAV. Granted, Tatar had three consecutive 50+ point seasons which led to that figure. Arvidsson may only continue to progress, securing himself as a truly elite winger. By extending Arvidsson for such a long period, Nashville managed to bring a potentially more productive player than Tatar in at a figure far less cumbersome.

Viktor Arvidsson, Nashville Predators Exchange Arbitration Figures

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Though Colton Parayko has avoided arbitration with the St. Louis Blues, the other hearings are still rapidly approaching. Viktor Arvidsson is set to have his heading on Saturday, and has exchanged figures with the Nashville Predators. The team has offered a two-year deal worth $5.5MM, while Arvidsson wants just one year at $4.5MM according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet.

The gap of $1.75MM seems quite large, but unlike in the MLB an arbitrator does not have to side with one figure or the other. The actual salary could come somewhere in between. Just like Parayko however, the team still has 48 hours to try and get a deal done that would lock up Arvidsson longer than two years.

Arvidsson’s case is an interesting one. The undersized winger wasn’t drafted until he was already 21 years old, and even then just in the fourth round. Another year and a half in the minors, and he has just 142 NHL contests under his belt at age-24. He did break out this season for 31 goals and 61 points and no one doubts his talents, but as Mike Furlano explained this week there are certain things you can and can’t bring up in arbitration hearings. Arvidsson’s relative inexperience is definitely something the team will use against him.

The fact that he’s 24 also poses some problems to a long-term deal. Arvidsson is just three years away from unrestricted free agency, so any term beyond that would be paying for years that he believes would be his prime earning period. If he believes he can maintain this production (and why wouldn’t he) it would be a huge bidding war for his services on the open market. It’s difficult for the team to extend that much capital and give him anything close to fair market value on his UFA years though after just one season, making it a tough negotiation for both sides.

RFAs Headed For Payday In Arbitration

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As the list of the players who have filed for arbitration was released earlier today by the NHLPA, a few names stick out as those due a meaningful raise. Arbitration is a tricky process to reliably predict, but it’s a safe bet these names will see their cap hit rise substantially.

 

Brian Dumoulin – D – Pittsburgh Penguins

There was a time when the young Dumoulin was a well-kept secret in the league, overshadowed by the far flashier play of Kris Letang. Dumoulin’s accolades this last playoff year certainly didn’t go unnoticed, and as the lone defensive defenseman in their core group, he probably holds the greatest job security on the team’s blueline. He doesn’t put up points – only one goal in the last two seasons, but he blocks shots and drives possession while eating a ton of minutes against top competition. As analytics are utilized more and more, his case only gets stronger. A contract well over $4 MM is certainly looking possible.

Colton Parayko – D – St. Louis Blues

This is the name seen most commonly associated with offer-sheets this summer, and with good reason. Parayko plays with the mentality of an old-time defenseman, but he can skate quite well for a large (6’6) man. He’s only had two seasons in the NHL, but he’s impressed since he first took the ice. Again, he isn’t a massive offensive force (he scored 3 goals last season), but he’s already averaging over 21 minutes a night with near equal starts in both the offensive and defensive zone. He’ll be hurt by the quantifiable stats factor, but he’s a big body with a rare right-handed shot to boot. This contract could look relatively cheap compared to his next, if he continues along this course. He should cost around $5.5 MM.

Ondrej Palat – F – Tampa Bay Lightning

Others will look to the undersized center Tyler Johnson as most likely to get a payday. But don’t over look Palat’s consistency – it may give him an edge with arbiters. Johnson does have his 72 point campaign to lean on, but that was now two full seasons ago. The fact that both players couldn’t break 20 goals in the last two seasons will bring their prices back down to Earth. Palat has grown into his role on the team and back-checks with a ferocity not often seen in younger stars. Johnson is no slouch either – they’ve both accumulated Selke votes over the years. These are two pivotal pieces of the Lightning, and their upcoming contracts were a big reason Jonathan Drouin was traded away to Montreal. GM Steve Yzerman will happily lock both up, but he will be hoping for figures under the $6 MM mark.

Viktor Arvidsson – F – Nashville Predators

This would have been an unlikely name on such a list even last December, when you consider how truly meteoric Arvidsson’s rise was. His value in arbitration will be deeply interesting – the shifty winger has played himself into the core of the team within a season. He really only has 2016-17 and the long playoff run to hang his hat on, as he scored only 16 points through 56 games in 2015-16. This year was a remarkable offensive explosion, with 30 goals and 31 assists. At only 5’9, Arvidsson has really shocked many onlookers by how easily he’s adapted to the physicality of the NHL game. His talent has never been in question, and with his production now well-established, it’s safe to believe he’s going to get a cushy award. How bad the damage will be is going to affect Nashville’s cap going forward – I suspect over $5 MM, but there are few comparables.

Mikael Granlund – F – Minnesota Wild

Granlund is perhaps slightly more enticing league wide than fellow Wild RFA Nino Niederreiter. He’s a marginally more cerebral player, and he plays the valuable center position. Neiderreiter is the more natural goal-scorer and larger frame, but Granlund has better PPG and has broken 30 assists thrice. Both players will get paid, as they both broke 25 goals last season and will be important pieces in the State of Hockey for some time. I think the more interesting thing to watch here is whether the Wild play it safe with Granlund and take a one year deal, or attempt to lock him up for longer. This was the first season he really scored with any consistency, but the Wild have shown their faith in the player by continually giving him over 17 minutes of icetime even when he struggled to produce. A one-year would easily command over $5 MM, whereas a longer deal could bring cost down.

 

Offseason Keys: Nashville Predators

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While expansion was the early headline in what will be a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months to come. Here is a closer look at what lies ahead for the Nashville Predators.

While things didn’t get off to too good of a start for Nashville as they narrowly made it into the playoffs, they saved their best for last, giving the Penguins all they could handle in the Stanley Cup Final before Pittsburgh prevailed in the end.  Now, GM David Poile is tasked with trying to put the final pieces in place to help the Preds take that last step forward.  Here are some of the ways he can try to accomplish just that.

Replace Neal

Unable to strike a protection deal with Vegas, the Predators were hit hard at the expansion draft as they lost winger James Neal to the Golden Knights.  While Neal hasn’t blossomed into a high end top liner like some had hoped for, he has still hit the 20 goal market in every season of his nine year career which makes him one of the more consistent secondary scorers out there.

While Nashville’s forward depth stepped up in the playoffs, it’s tough to expect someone to step in and take over that level of production right away.  They have youngsters like Kevin Fiala or Pontus Aberg that could potentially fit the bill but the more prudent course of action would be to find a veteran replacement and allow the youngsters to ease their way into that role (or wait for more injuries to strike).

To that end, Poile has shown considerable interest in trading for Matt Duchene this offseason.  However, he hasn’t been willing to move one of his top four blueliners which has stalled talks.  The recent signing of Scott Hartnell basically replaces the production of Colin Wilson and with most of the top free agents now signed, the trade route is looking like a likelier course of action now whether it winds up being Duchene or someone else.

New Deal For Johansen

One of the big questions that came up when the Predators and Blue Jackets swapped center Ryan Johansen and defenseman Seth Jones back in early 2016 was Johansen’s contract situation as he was in the middle of his bridge deal.  For starters, he was going to be due a sizable qualifying offer of $6MM, one they recently extended to retain his rights as expected.

Nov 25, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Nashville Predators center Ryan Johansen (92) skates toward the net during the third period against the Winnipeg Jets at Bridgestone Arena. The Predators won 5-1. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY SportsThe bigger potential concern is where Johansen sits with regards to unrestricted free agency.  Although he’s only 24, the fact that he has six years of service time already makes him UFA eligible as of next summer.  If he wants to go that route next offseason, he can simply file for arbitration next week, go through that process, and hit the open market as a number one center in his prime.

Johansen has fit in quite nicely since joining Nashville and is their top pivot, one that they can’t afford to lose.  Because the arbitration filing deadline is fast approaching though, Poile will likely want to make a big push to get a long-term deal done in the coming days to get rid of any uncertainty as quickly as possible.  The early asking price to get that deal done is believed to be $8.5MM.

Short-Term Or Long-Term For Arvidsson?

Winger Viktor Arvidsson was one of the biggest surprises in the league in 2016-17.  After putting up just eight goals and eight assists in 56 games with Nashville the year before, he became a legitimate go-to scorer, tallying 31 goals and 30 assists in 81 games this past season.  He did so at the perfect time as he will hit restricted free agency this weekend.

Poile’s going to have a decision to make with regards to what type of contract to offer the 24 year old.  He sits three years away from unrestricted status so a bridge deal may only be a one year offer.  Given that Arvidsson is only a year removed from spending time in the minors, the safer play is to go short-term and see if his 61 points was a one-time thing or a sign of things to come.

On the flip side, if management is sold on him being able to provide a comparable level of production down the road, this is the time to try to lock Arvidsson up on what could prove to be a team-friendly deal later on.  With nearly $20MM in cap space per CapFriendly, they have the financial flexibility to pick which way they want to go with him.  Because of the big leap in scoring this season, his RFA case is one of the more intriguing ones to watch for this offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Early Expansion Protection News: Capitals, Kings, Flames, Predators, And More

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The 2017 NHL Expansion Draft is an exciting process. If you’re too riled up to wait until the lists are officially submitted in the morning, you’re in luck. As could be expected, information leaks are flooding in on who was and wasn’t protected by their teams ahead of the deadline this afternoon. This list will be updated all night long as more news comes in:

  • One not so obvious choice has been made in Nashville. Adam Vingan of The Tennessean answered a question on the minds of many, reporting that the Predators did in fact protect forward Calle Jarnkrok. With the rest of the eight-skater list all but set in stone with goalie Pekka Rinne, defensemen Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm, and star forwards Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen, and Viktor Arvidsson, the final forward spot came down to Jarnkrok, signed long-term, or James Neal, an elite scorer with just one year remaining on his contract. It seems that Neal will be open for selection, alongside names like Colton Sissons, Colin Wilson, and Craig Smith. Vignan adds that no deal has been struck between Vegas and the Predators to protect any of those players, with Nashville especially liking to retain Neal and Sissons.
  • Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that, interestingly enough, young Detroit Red Wings defenseman Xavier Ouellet was not protected by his team. This is the first real surprise of the expansion process and the first protection news that doesn’t match up with PHR’s Expansion Primer projections. The 23-year-old skated in 66 games this season for Detroit, third most among defenseman, and his 12 points tied that of top-pair man Danny DeKeyser. Yet, Ouellett will not join DeKeyser and Mike Green in protection, instead beaten out by another teammate. GM Ken Holland, who has gotten the reputation of perhaps being too loyal, possibly chose aging veteran Niklas Kronwall over Ouellet. Hopefully that doesn’t come back to bite the rebuilding Red Wings.
  • Another name confirmed to be unprotected is young Vancouver Canucks center Brendan Gaunce. Vancouver sports anchor Rick Dhaliwal was told that that Gaunce, a 2012 first-round pick, did not make the protection list for the Canucks, expected to be a 7/3 format, meaning that the team saw him as outside the top seven forwards on the team. The 23-year-old two-way specialist has upside, but after registering just five points in 57 games last season, no one will blame Vancouver for that choice.

Finals Appearance Will Pay For Nashville Players

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Every year, there are players entering the final year of a contract will cash in on a solid playoff run. This year, Nashville has 11 players who are at the end of their deals – 6 to become unrestricted free-agents, and 5 restricted. Almost all will see a major jump in pay heading into next season.

Pontus Aberg has had a remarkable run for a relative unknown. The impending RFA has 5 points through 13 games, including two beautiful goals. He’s displayed top-six skill at times and is now on the national stage. Viktor Arvidsson was already looking for a major payday after scoring 31 goals and 61 points during the regular season. But his dominant speed and creativity, to accompany  12 playoff points, only solidifies the probability of an expensive deal. RFA Ryan Johansen is considered by most to be a number one center in this league, and it’s a solid bet Nashville will be looking to lock him into the distant future. After trading Seth Jones for his services a couple seasons back, it’s clear that GM David Poile has complete confidence in the player’s potential, honorary mayorship aside. Frederick Gaudreau emerged out of absolutely nowhere to become a shifty top-nine element, and although he’s far from a sure thing with 14 games under his belt, it’s likely the team will want to retain his services. Thankfully, the RFA negotiation process often benefits the team’s position, keeping prices from getting astronomical.

If the team wants to bring back captain Mike Fisher for another year, or add a big free agent, it is made all the more difficult by these outbursts of productivity. National exposure does go a long way to bring prices up, and depending on the team’s vision for the future, these new contracts could cause headaches down the line. Thankfully, most of Nashville’s core is locked up to reasonable deals in the longer term. Only sniper James Neal has his contract set to expire the following year, 2018-19. Without re-signing anyone, the team has 18 players under contract with somewhere around $17 MM in space.

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