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Central Notes: Nill, Blackhawks Draft, Blackhawks Cap Floor

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The Dallas Stars are one of the most well-positioned teams in the NHL, made up of nearly the perfect mix of veteran talent, developing stars, and promising prospects. Behind all that is general manager Jim Nill, who is one of this year’s nominees for the Jim Gregory Award for GM of the year.

Next season is the last one on Nill’s current contract, though, and there is currently no timeline for extension discussions to begin, Dallas Stars radio analyst Bruce LeVine said today. While speaking to reporters this morning, Nill did say he’d “like to be [in Dallas] for a few more years.” Nill has been Dallas’ GM since 2013, his first NHL GM job after nearly two decades of service in the Detroit Red Wings front office. In that time, Nill’s assembled one of the best prospect pools in the league while keeping the team in a position to contend, reaching the Conference Final twice in the last four seasons.

It seems inconceivable that Dallas would opt not to extend him unless the 2023-24 campaign takes an unexpected term, but at 65 years old, it’s hard to imagine Nill sticking around past his next extension.

More from the Central Division today:

  • Chicago Blackhawks general manager Kyle Davidson said today he’s open to all options with the team’s second pick in the 2023 NHL Draft, currently slated for 19th overall. Acquired from the Tampa Bay Lightning in last year’s Brandon Hagel trade, it’s one of six picks Chicago holds in the first two rounds of the draft. Already locked into the first overall selection, Chicago could trade up or down from the 19th spot if the right opportunity presents itself.
  • Davidson also told reporters he anticipates “no problem” in hitting the salary cap floor next season. Eyebrows raised yesterday after the team signed forward Andreas Athanasiou to a two-year extension well above market value, with some viewing it as a thinly veiled attempt to get Chicago cap compliant. As of today, the team has a projected cap hit of just under $46MM for 2023-24, per CapFriendly, a number that will need to hit $61.7MM by the start of next season. Davidson alluded to taking on bad contracts in exchange for assets as part of his offseason strategy but said the market for those transactions hasn’t been fully fleshed out yet.

Free Agent Focus: New York Rangers

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Free agency is less than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens.  There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Rangers.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Alexis Lafrenière – Just under three years ago the Rangers watched the lottery balls bounce their way as they were fortunate enough to win the sweepstakes for Lafrenière. At the time the 21-year-old looked like a can’t miss first overall pick having been dominant in the QMJHL and the World Juniors. But now just three years later the Rangers are facing quite the dilemma with the young forward. On one hand he is one of their few valuable trade chips, however, given their cap crunch his cap hit will likely give them a functional player on a reasonable contract.

Lafrenière has played a lot of bottom six minutes and hasn’t really seen the offensive opportunities that other first overall picks have had, however he also hasn’t shown the same skill level or skating as some of the other first overall picks before him.

Lafrenière had a career high 39 points this season in 81 games and did a much better job driving play than he had in previous seasons. However, he also enjoyed much more favorable deployment than in previous seasons which leads one to wonder if he will have better numbers in a different role under a new head coach.

Regardless of who is signing his checks next season Lafrenière is likely to be playing under a two- or three-year bridge deal with a cap hit like the $2.1MM that teammate Kaapo Kakko is playing under.

D K’Andre Miller – Miller’s next contract is going to make for a very interesting negotiation. He is the Rangers best left shot defenseman and played at a very high level for the past two seasons including this past year where he posted nine goals and 34 assists in 79 games. While 43 points total isn’t elite for a defenseman, his 38 even strength points are. Miller saw very little powerplay time and still managed to post very strong offensive numbers.

While his offensive numbers are good, he and partner Jacob Trouba went through some long stretches this season where they couldn’t keep the puck out of their own net. While they turned it around, Miller’s defensive struggles could work against him in negotiations. It’ll be interesting to see how the Rangers navigate their negotiation with the 23-year-old St. Paul native. It’s unlikely they will give him the Rasmus Dahlin contract at a cap hit of $6MM, but an average annual value between $4MM and $5.5MM seems very possible.

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Patrick Kane – The Rangers acquired the three-time Stanley Cup champion at the trade deadline this past winter and while things didn’t end up the way they’d hoped, they didn’t give up a lot of assets to acquire the player. Kane recently had surgery to resurface his hip and will be ready to play in 4-6 months. He makes for a curious free agent because any team that fancies themselves a contender likely won’t give out a big cap number until they can see skate again after his recovery. If this is the case, Kane could wait until after his recovery to see who the contenders are next season before inking a deal. The issue there for Kane would be that most teams will be close to the cap ceiling by the time the seasons starts. Kane is still a very productive forward (when healthy), this past season he put up 21 goals and 36 assists in 73 games during the regular season and followed it up with a goal and five assists in seven playoff games. If he were healthy Kane would probably be looking at a three-year deal worth around $6MM. But, because of his injury I think he will need to wait and sign a one-year deal closer to the start of the season or in season once he has recovers from his injury.

F Vladimir Tarasenko – Tarasenko arrived from St. Louis to a lot of fanfare in New York but couldn’t help the Rangers get over hump in the Eastern Conference. The 31-year-old put up 18 goals and 32 assists in 69 games split between the Blues and the Rangers and struggled in the playoffs putting up just four points in seven games. The Rangers would probably like to sign Tarasenko to a short-term deal but given their lack of cap space they likely can’t pursue the winger. Tarasenko will be interesting negotiation as he struggled to drive play last season and isn’t the player he once was. He’ll still find work, and a good little pay day, but it won’t be at anything close to the $7.5MM he made on his previous deal.

G Jaroslav Halák – It’s hard to believe that Jaro Halák is still chugging along at the tail end of his NHL career. He has struggled in recent years, but the veteran continues to find work in the NHL on one-year contracts. Halak hasn’t posted a .905 save percentage in any of the past three seasons but has been able to stay slightly above average in expected save percentage. Currently Halák is a good backup option for a team that is looking for average goaltending 20-25 nights of the year. He will likely be able to fetch a one-year contract at around $1MM.

Other UFAs: Niko Mikkola, Tyler Motte

Projected Cap Space

The Rangers emerged from a quick rebuild just a few seasons ago and had plenty of draft capital and a lot of salary cap flexibility. Now just a few years later the Rangers are in a very precarious salary cap situation as they have just $11.8MM in cap space with 14 players signed for next year. While that is a bit alarming, the good news for New York fans is that most of the core is signed for at least the next two years to fairly reasonable contracts. That being said, there are a few deals that general manager Chris Drury would probably like the opportunity to dump should an opening arise.

The club likely won’t have room to extend Kane or Tarasenko without moving out a very good player and given the age of both players they may want to pass on doing so. The Rangers are also two years out from having to give superstar netminder Igor Shesterkin a new deal, one which could potentially eclipse $9MM annually if he can duplicate his 2021-22 season in the next two seasons. With all of that going on, it’s unlikely that there will be big changes this summer on Broadway.

 

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Snapshots: Senators, Penguins, Luostarinen

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Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia reported today that the talk amongst the bidders for ownership of the Ottawa Senators is that Toronto billionaire Steve Apostolopoulos is the current favorite to purchase the franchise. Apostolopoulos was one of four bidders with the other three being Los Angeles-based producer Neko Sparks, Michael and Jeffrey Kimel of Harlo Capital, and Toronto’s Michael Andlauer. Garrioch goes on to say that Apostolopoulos, who missed out on purchasing the NFL’s Washington Commanders is in the driver’s seat as he had the highest bid at $1 billion.

Garrioch adds that it is far from a done deal as there has been talk that the other ownership groups have been making moves to improve their bids and add additional people to their groups. Sources have told Garrioch that Andlauer is confident he will get the team and he believes his position with the Montreal Canadiens as an alternate member of the NHL’s board of governors will give him the inside track to the Senators ownership. There was talk earlier in the week that Andlauer and the Kimel’s might form a collective group, but those talks have apparently stopped after not getting very far.

It’ll be interesting to see where the Senator’s ownership saga goes in the upcoming weeks. Gary Bettman doesn’t generally like to have other teams making announcements during the Stanley Cup finals, and with game 1 set for Saturday night it might be well into June when there is an official announcement about who will be the next owner of the Senators.

In other snapshots from around the NHL:

  • The Pittsburgh Penguins got to work today in the first day with Kyle Dubas at the helm. Dubas took over as president of hockey operations and interim general manager from Brian Burke and Ron Hextall and was quick to make moves to dismiss some members of the old guard. Josh Yohe of The Athletic reported that director of pro scouting Kerry Huffman, director of hockey operations and salary cap management Alec Schall, and senior VP of integrated performance Teena Murray were all let go with at least one year remaining on their contracts. All three were hired by Hextall and will not be part of the new management group in Pittsburgh as they rebuild their hockey ops after a disappointing season in which they missed the playoffs for the first time in 17 years.
  • Tom Gulitti of NHL.com writes that Florida Panthers forward Eetu Luostarinen is practicing with the team in Vegas ahead of game 1 of the Stanley Cup finals tomorrow night. Luostarinen was paired back up with his usual linemates Sam Reinhart and Anton Lundell. The 24-year-old was injured in game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Carolina Hurricanes but has yet to miss a game. Paul Maurice was quoted in The Hockey News on Monday saying that he expected Luostarinen to be ready for game 1 and things appear to be trending that way. Luostarinen has been a big part of the Panthers third line in this postseason putting up two goals and three assists in 16 games.

Snapshots: Vancouver, Pettersson, Combine

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Thomas Drance and Harman Dayal wrote an article for The Athletic today outlining the best third line center options for the Vancouver Canucks to look at when free agency opens on July 1st. Vancouver has an excellent 1-2 punch down the middle of the ice with Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller currently occupying the top two spots. Drance and Dayal begin their article by highlighting the fact that Vancouver not only needs a third line center, but they also need the right fit for the third line, preferably one with more of a defensive skill set.

While this year’s free agent class leaves a lot to be desired, there are some good top-9 center options for the Canucks to consider. Drance and Dayal produce an exhaustive list that includes bargain bin shopping as well as some players that will likely fall outside of Vancouver’s price range given their salary cap constraints. The most realistic targets, and the ones on the top of the list are Pius Suter and David Kampf.

What a change two years can make. In the case of Pius Suter, it’s the difference between being non-tendered (as he was in 2021 by the Chicago Blackhawks) and being a sought after unrestricted free agent (after two good seasons with the Detroit Red Wings). Suter is a bit undersized but could offer the Canucks a solid top-9 option at a reasonable price. Over two seasons in Detroit Suter put up 29 goals and 31 assists in 161 games. While those numbers won’t blow anyone away, the 27-year-old did this while hardly benefiting from any powerplay time as he saw just six minutes of ice time this season with the man advantage.

Kampf offers much stronger defensive metrics than Suter and is a bigger body, however he is more limited offensively as he had just 18 goals and 35 assists in 164 games over the past two seasons. He also saw very little powerplay time but struggles to drive play at even strength as he has a negative offensive impact even at 5v5. Drance and Dayal do wonder if having a better defensive player such as Kampf in the third line center role might make more sense for Vancouver as it could free up the top two line for more offensive deployment.

Other snapshots from around the league:

  • The Score is reporting that J.P. Barry, the agent for Vancouver Canucks superstar Elias Pettersson expects talks between his client and the club to begin this summer as they look to hammer out a long-term deal for the 24-year-old. Pettersson is just a year from being a restricted free agent and two years away from unrestricted free agency. He is due $10.25MM this upcoming season and would require an $8.82MM qualifying offer next summer for Vancouver to retain his rights. Given that he is coming off a 102-point season it would make sense for the young Swede to try and sign a long-term deal to obtain some security and peace of mind heading into next season. For the Canucks it would also give the club some cap certainty as they try to re-tool after missing the playoffs this past season.
  • Mike Morreale of NHL.com tweeted today that no Russian prospects who played overseas this season will be attending the NHL combine. The combine will run from June 4-10 in Buffalo and will give all 32 clubs the chance to get a look at the top prospects in this year’s entry draft. It’s an interesting development, but not a surprising one. Projected top-3 pick Matvei Michkov stated in Russian media back in May that he likely wouldn’t be at the combine but would be at the draft.

Afternoon News: Capitals, Howden, Maple Leafs

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Tarik El-Bashir of The Athletic wrote a piece today that highlighted the nine forwards he believes would fit what the Washington Capitals are looking for this offseason. El-Bashir begins the piece by shining a light on the salary cap crunch that will leave the Capitals with around $5MM in cap space this summer. That leaves Washington with precious little space to work with, however El-Bashir quickly points out that Evgeny Kuznetsov and Anthony Mantha are both trade options that are finding their names on a lot of trade boards.

El-Bashir feels that Washington won’t target players over 30 given their age and Washington’s precarious cap situation. He lists Tyler Bertuzzi, Connor Brown, Andreas Athanasiou, Ivan Barbashev, Michael Bunting, J.T. Compher, Max Domi, Pierre Engvall, and Evan Rodrigues as the likely targets for Capitals general manager Brian MacLellan. Washington has an extensive group of forwards signed to contracts for next season but have a glaring hole on the right wing. Given the cost and the need I would likely put current Capitals forward Connor Brown near the top of the list. Brown was acquired from the Ottawa Senators for a second round pick last summer but only dressed in four games before suffering a season ending ACL injury in his right knee.

In other afternoon notes:

  • Jesse Granger of The Athletic is reporting that Brett Howden of the Vegas Golden Knights was on the ice for the team’s morning skate ahead of their game 4 matchup against the Dallas Stars. Granger reported yesterday that the 25-year-old center had tweaked a lower body injury in game 2 and tried to play through it but couldn’t. Howden missed game 3 and given that he’s seen a lot of time in Vegas’ top-6 as of late, his return would be a welcome boost if he can dress tonight. Howden had a pedestrian regular season with 13 points in 54 games, however in these playoffs he has three goals and three assists in 14 games. Vegas has a chance to sweep Dallas this evening.
  • Kevin McGran of the Toronto Star wrote an opinion piece today about why former Calgary Flames general manager Brad Treliving checks so many of the boxes that Brendan Shanahan and the Toronto Maple Leafs would be looking to tick. McGran highlights Treliving’s experience in Calgary working in a collaborative environment with former president of hockey ops Brian Burke. Toronto’s future general manager would be tied to Shanahan as well as the board of MLSE, it is a job that is different from some other NHL clubs, however Treliving has worked within a similar structure. McGran also cites Treliving’s penchant for having the guts to make bold moves, Treliving spent last summer overhauling the Calgary Flames out of necessity by trading Matthew Tkachuk to Florida for Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar as well as signing Nazem Kadri as a free agent.

Edmonton Oilers Notes: Staios, Bouchard, Yamamoto

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Frank Seravalli had a lengthy discussion on the Daily Faceoff Rundown podcast about the future of the Edmonton Oilers. In the discussion Seravalli said he doesn’t expect huge changes on the ice, but he does believe that there will be changes to the management structure as they attempt to be “protective and proactive with Steve Staios.” Seravalli went on to say that the former Oilers defenseman is regarded in Oilers circles as being their general manager of the future and the club may want to shift their hierarchy to give Staios a bigger voice before another team scoops him up.

What that could look like remains to be seen, but Seravalli went on to say that he wouldn’t be surprised if the Oilers promoted current general manager Ken Holland to President of Hockey Ops which would allow Staios to shift over to Holland’s old job and preserve the teams already thin management group. Whatever management group is in place will have much work to be done this summer. The Oilers window for contention is beginning to close as superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl inch closer to unrestricted free agency. Draisaitl has just two years left on his current deal and McDavid has three. If the Oilers don’t get over the hump soon, they could find it difficult to retain the franchise cornerstones.

In other Oilers notes:

  • Seravalli also spoke about the next contract for Evan Bouchard saying that he fully expects the Oilers to try and get the defenseman on a bridge contract due to their current salary cap predicament. The 23-year-old is coming off a good season in which he put up eight goals and 40 points in 81 regular season games, however in the playoffs the Oakville native exploded for 17 points in 12 games, including 15 points while quarterbacking the Oilers white hot powerplay. Seravalli wondered if a bridge contract would even be possible given how important Bouchard has been to the team since the mid-season Tyson Barrie trade. The advantage for the Oilers will be that Bouchard has no rights to arbitration at this time.
  • Seravalli and Jason Gregor spoke about the Oilers need to upgrade the right wing spot this summer. This was echoed by Daniel Nugent-Bowman of The Athletic who believes that top six winger Kailer Yamamoto’s poor play in the playoffs might have turned him into a trade candidate. Yamamoto is due $3.1MM next season and struggled in the playoffs putting up just a single goal and four points in 12 games despite getting a lot of top six minutes. The Spokane native wasn’t much better in the regular season putting up 25 points in 58 games, a steep drop from his career high of 41 points in 81 games in 2021-22.

Latest From Insider Trading: Walsh’s Plans For NHLPA

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In the latest edition of TSN’s Insider Trading, insiders Pierre LeBrun and Chris Johnston focused on the priorities for new NHLPA executive director Marty Walsh. Though he just took on the job as the leader of the player’s union last month, he has plenty of issues to deal with and it sounds like he is already working on a few of them. LeBrun reported Walsh wants to have greater communication between the players and the union and not just when negotiating new collective bargaining agreements. He has already begun reaching out to players to get feedback on what they think of the current playoff format.

Johnston mentioned Walsh is also willing to discuss negotiating with the league to possibly try and have the salary cap move up more than the projected $1MM this offseason. However, the players still owe a debt to the owners so it is possible they are more comfortable dealing with a modest raise in the salary cap ahead of 2023-24 before a bigger leap is made the following season. This would decrease the likelihood that escrow also rises with the cap in 2024-25.

LeBrun reported that Walsh feels the Arizona Coyotes having NHL players play in a college stadium is a situation that needs to be addressed. There is a vote coming up in May when citizens of Tempe will vote on whether or not to go ahead with plans to build a new arena in the near future. If they don’t go ahead with it, it could be bad news for the Coyotes.

Johnston also said Walsh is eager to start talks about the next World Cup and has his eye on February 2025 for that event. The last time hockey players took part in a best-on-best event was the World Cup in 2016. Walsh apparently is willing to start talking about the next one, even with Russia’s participation unlikely at this point.

Morning Notes: Bruins, Senators, Salary Cap

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Over the past couple of seasons, the Boston Bruins haven’t made big trade deadline splashes for rentals. Their two significant acquisitions in 2021 and 2022, Taylor Hall and Hampus Lindholm, signed extensions with the team and remain in Boston today.

In his latest for The Athletic, Fluto Shinzawa explains how that will be a tricky trend to repeat this season with Dmitry Orlov, Garnet Hathaway, and Tyler Bertuzzi. Although general manager Don Sweeney has expressed an interest in re-signing all three, signing an extension with only one would require multiple cap-dump trades. Matt Grzelcyk, Derek Forbort, and Mike Reilly would likely all see their way out of Boston this offseason, with the team likely to fetch far below market value on trades for Grzelcyk and Forbort if backed into a salary cap hole. Per CapFriendly, Boston has just over $10.5MM in projected cap space for 2023-24, not including potential performance bonus penalties carrying over from Patrice Bergeron’s and David Krejci’s contracts this season.

Other items dotting the league rumor wire this morning:

  • On last night’s edition of TSN’s Insider Trading, Chris Johnston noted that an ownership group led by The Hockey News owner Graeme Roustan, in conjunction with Canadian First Nations groups, has advanced past the first round of bidding to purchase the Ottawa Senators. Johnston reports that the group notably has an interest in developing the land around LeBreton Flats, realizing a long-time hope for a more centrally located arena in Ottawa.
  • Also on Insider Trading, Johnston says that the NHLPA is likely dead set against increasing escrow payments next season to accommodate for a larger salary cap increase. NHL commissioner Gary Bettman noted earlier this week that such an exchange would be necessary to increase next year’s salary cap past the projected $1MM bump to an Upper Limit of $83.5MM.

Snapshots: Salary Cap, Coyotes, Matthews

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The relatively flat salary cap over the last few seasons has certainly been a limiter on player movement over that time.  However, speaking with reporters today including Sportsnet’s Eric Engels, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman indicated a potential openness to boost the Upper Limit by more than the prescribed $1MM next season.  However, doing so would be tied to escrow:

We’re hearing around the bend from players and others that there may be interest in having that, but one thing to keep in mind if we’re going to raise the cap and the escrow hasn’t been paid off, is then we’re going to have to look at raising the escrow rates, which under the CBA extension in 2020 is locked into the last three years of the CBA term at 6 per cent. So, if you’re going to raise the cap prematurely, then you’re going to have to look at the escrow percentage as well. The two are inextricably tied together.

As Bettman noted, there now is a fixed cap on escrow which there wasn’t in the past and by his estimation, there is still around $100MM owed back to the owners to get back to the required 50/50 share of Hockey Related Revenue.  Increasing the escrow hasn’t been popular in the past so if incoming NHLPA Director Marty Walsh finds that the players don’t want to go that route again (even for just a short time), it could be one more year with a small increase before the cap goes up more quickly beginning in 2024-25.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • The Coyotes are likely to be one of the few teams with significant cap space this summer but don’t expect them to automatically be too active in free agency. GM Bill Armstrong indicated on the latest Cam and Strick podcast (video link) that they’re also open to doing what they’ve done in recent years which is taking on unwanted contracts while stockpiling extra draft picks for doing so.  Arizona has stockpiled 47 picks over the next four seasons but have shown a willingness in the past to take on selections that are several years out.  If they opt to take on more unwanted contracts, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them concentrating on adding 2026 and 2027 draft picks in order to try to keep their pick cupboard spaced out.
  • While it has been speculated for a while, Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews confirmed to Jonas Siegel of The Athletic (subscription link) that the upper-body injury he has been dealing with for most of the year is a hand issue. However, the 25-year-old indicated that the hand is feeling a lot better now as of late which is certainly good news for a Toronto team that has made several moves to augment their roster at the trade deadline in the hopes of a long playoff run.  Even with the injury, Matthews still has 31 goals and 36 assists in 59 games so far.

Arizona Coyotes Acquire Jakub Voracek

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The Arizona Coyotes continue their run on contracts they will never have to pay out. The team has acquired Jakub Voracek from the Columbus Blue Jackets, along with a 2023 sixth-round pick, in exchange for Jon Gillies. Voracek’s career is in doubt, and according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, there is insurance coverage for next year’s $7.8MM salary.

The move is important for a few different reasons. One, it gets the Coyotes much closer to the salary cap floor for next season, meaning they can make additional trades in the next 24 hours to jettison more expensive pieces like Nick Schmaltz or Lawson Crouse that may be drawing interest.

For the Blue Jackets, the move lets them get out from long-term injured reserve and under the salary cap ceiling, meaning performance bonuses from this year will no longer be carried over to 2023-24. With only the cost of a sixth-round pick to pay, it makes plenty of sense to get Voracek’s contract off the books.

If it is the end of his career as suspected, thanks to multiple head injuries, Voracek will go down as one of his generation’s more underrated offensive players. With over 800 points in his career, he sits 177th all-time and is just shy of the top 100 in assists with 583.

He’ll join a long list of players who have technically been part of the Coyotes organization but never played a game for the team, should he miss next season as expected.

Arizona now has Voracek, Shea Weber, and Bryan Little on the books for next season, a total of nearly $21.4MM in cap hits that won’t play a minute of ice time. On the other hand, they also have 36 draft picks over the next three years, including 21 in the top three rounds.

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