Could Coronavirus Lead To The Return Of Compliance Buyouts?
Just two weeks after the NHL announced a projected 2020-21 salary cap range that would have represented a major boost in teams’ spending power, things could not have gone in a worse direction in terms of meeting that estimation. The Coronavirus outbreak has shut the league down and there is no way to know when or if games will return this season. The league hopes to resume play and even maintains that they would like to avoid missing any games, but with each passing day that reality grows less and less likely. COVID-19 fears seem almost certain to cost games if not the entirety of the remaining regular season schedule and, in the worst-case scenario, possibly the playoffs as well. Missed games are missed revenue opportunities and the board of governors would be highly unlikely to approve a cap increase, especially of the magnitude initially projected, if they continue to suffer losses.
The last time that the NHL was forced to cancel games was in the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season. As the league and players’ association battled over collective bargaining terms, the NHL missed the first half of their season. A 48-game schedule began on January 19th, which for all involved was better than nothing but was certainly a hit to owners’ bottom lines. The 2012-13 campaign was expected to carry a $70.2MM cap hit, but that instead was a pro-rated number that in reality was just $60MM. The following season, given the lost revenue, the cap only meagerly returned to just $64.3MM, the same upper limit as in 2011-12.
Due to the unexpected stagnation of the salary cap for those two years, many teams were left under immense pressure to fit their rosters under the ceiling. In response, the NHL offered a solution: the “compliance buyout”. The compliance buyout follows the same rules as a standard buyout, allowing teams to cut ties with a player at the cost of two-thirds of the remaining value of their contract (one-third if under 26) over the course of double the length of the remaining term on the contract. The one defining difference is that compliance buyouts do not count against the salary cap. The NHL made this option available in the 2013 and 2014 off-seasons, with a limit of two per team over the two summers, and 18 teams took advantage. In fact, a number of teams are still paying off those buyouts – with a ways to go – with standouts including Christian Ehrhoff, Brad Richards, Ilya Bryzgalov, Vincent Lecavalier, and of course Rick DiPietro.
Could the compliance buyout make a return appearance should the Coronavirus outbreak continue to prevent NHL action from returning? If NHL teams end up losing revenue due to missed games, the 2020-21 salary cap limit will at best be the low end of the league’s projection, which is $84MM. And that would still be a $2.5MM increase. More likely in the case of canceled games would be the salary cap remaining at $81.5MM or only increasing marginally. Such a shift in the expected course of action would leave many teams in trouble. A report earlier today named the Chicago Blackhawks as one team that would have to make difficult roster decisions in the event of a stagnant cap, but they are far from alone. 13 teams already have $70MM+ in salary committed to 2020-21, while many of the 12 more teams in the $60-70MM range either have key free agents to re-sign or are working with a small number of signed players. The Arizona Coyotes, who lead the pack with $79.99MM committed to just 18 players, were already hard-pressed to deal with an $84MM salary cap, nevertheless a continuation of the current $81.5MM. They would be left in a nearly impossible situation, unless offered a way out.
As such, it seems like a strong possibility that the compliance buyout could make its triumphant return. While the league does not want to address the “what if” of missed games at this point in time, should it reach the point where that result is inevitable, compliance buyouts will certainly become a hot topic. Whether the league would go about the process in a similar manner as they did last time around remains to be seen. They might instead offer a one-time shot this summer in light of NHL Expansion in 2021 that should get the salary cap back on track. It’s too early to tell, but as we all wait out the Coronavirus, it’s worth wondering whether the league could bring back an old device to mitigate the lasting effect of the pandemic.
Stretch Run Storylines: Dallas Stars
As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks. Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run. Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team. We continue our look at the Central Division with Dallas.
The Stars have had a bit of a tumultuous season but nevertheless find themselves in a top-three seed in the Central Division. An early season coaching change shocked many while a lack of production from their top players has been more than a little perplexing. Those themes have been prevalent throughout the season and will continue to be key storylines down the stretch and into the postseason.
Offensive Struggles
On paper, a core of Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Joe Pavelski, and Alexander Radulov looks pretty strong. Seguin had six straight seasons of at least 72 points under his belt, Benn had reached 69 or more in five of the last six years, Radulov had two straight seasons of 72 in first two years with the team, and Pavelski came into the year with six straight campaigns of 64 points or more. Yes, it’s an aging group so a slight decline would have been understandable. But this hasn’t been a slight decline.
As things stand, none of them have reached the 20-goal mark. Only Seguin has reached the 40-point mark, checking at 50. Benn and Radulov have a shot at 40 points if the remaining scheduled games are played out while Pavelski getting there would be a longshot.
Not surprisingly, the Stars check in at 29th overall in goals scored. They are the only team outside of the top-20 in that department to be holding down a playoff spot. They can’t afford to rely on Denis Gurianov to continue to lead the team in goals if they want to be a postseason contender. For context, he’s their only 20-goal player (20 on the dot) and spent a bit of time in October in the minors after seeing minimal ice time early on.
Some teams need an uptick in scoring from their primary players. Some need a secondary scoring boost. Dallas needs all of that and then some. If Seguin, Benn, Radulov, and Pavelski can get back to the level they were at even a year ago (and this break could certainly help with that), it would go a long way towards fixing their scoring woes and making them a much bigger playoff threat in the process.
Interim Or Permanent?
It was a big surprise when Rick Bowness was asked to take over for Jim Montgomery behind the bench after the latter was dismissed for cause back in December. At the time of the move, it was expected that the interim tag would be in place for the rest of the regular season and they would re-assess at that time.
So how has he fared? Clearly, the offense is sputtering but at the same time, they have been the top defensive team in the Western Conference in terms of goals allowed which has allowed them to stay in a playoff spot for most of the year. Basically, not a whole lot has changed from the transition from Montgomery to Bowness as the veterans were scuffling offensively at the start of the year while Ben Bishop and Anton Khudobin have provided strong goaltending.
Is basically keeping the team afloat enough to justify the permanent job? Considering the odd circumstances in which he took over, accomplishing that is notable. However, it certainly feels like how they fare down the stretch and postseason (if those games get played) will ultimately determine whether or not GM Jim Nill sticks with him or goes after another bench boss in the offseason.
Early Extension For Heiskanen?
Last year was a good one for defenseman Miro Heiskanen who finished just shy of being a Calder Trophy finalist. After putting up 33 points, he seemed like a prime candidate for a big jump in production which would have him in line for a big raise when he became eligible for an early extension in July. Of course, the big jump in production hasn’t happened (putting him in line with just about everyone else on the team) although he has collected 35 points which is good enough to put him third on the team in scoring.
Even so, the small uptick offensively will call into question whether or not an extension is the right way to go as it’s possible that Heiskanen could be leaving money on the table without a 40-point season under his belt. If regular season games resume and he picks up some points or is productive in the playoffs, he might be able to boost his value enough to make an early extension justifiable. If not, waiting may be the better option so whether or not the NHL returns may be particularly important for him.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Stretch Run Storylines: Colorado Avalanche
As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks. Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run. Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team. We continue our look at the Central Division with Colorado.
After making somewhat of a surprise appearance in the second round last season, the Avalanche have built off of that and have become one of the top threats in the Western Conference. They’ve managed to do so despite a litany of injuries to key players. That shouldn’t be an issue when play resumes, making it a top storyline for not only them but the rest of the West as well.
Return To Health
Just before the suspension of play, Colorado had just found out that Nathan MacKinnon was going to miss a couple of weeks while Cale Makar had just returned from an upper-body injury issue. Having them at full strength is nice…and that’s only the tip of the iceberg.
Philipp Grubauer will return from his lower-body issue which will bolster their goaltending tandem. Mikko Rantanen will be ready to go from his upper-body ailment; both players have been out for roughly a month. Nazem Kadri plays more than any forward not on their top line and will be back from his lower-body injury. And while we’re at it, Matt Calvert and Andre Burakovsky will also be ready to go from their lower-body issues.
If you’re keeping track, that’s two top line forwards, a second line center, two middle six wingers, and a starting goalie that will all be back. Calling that a huge upgrade to their roster would be an understatement and positions the Avs quite nicely for a stretch run or quick start to the postseason.
Goaltending Decision
Let’s go back to Grubauer. Prior to his injury, he had become more of the clear cut starter. But when he went down, Pavel Francouz ran off a 2.40 GAA with a .918 SV% in 13 appearances (one being in relief of Grubauer when he was hurt). He more than capably held down the fort and earned himself a two-year contract extension in the process. At the same time, his play also suggested that he is worthy of more playing time.
All of a sudden, there isn’t a guaranteed number one option anymore. When it comes to the regular season, there’s nothing wrong with that and platoon situations can be quite useful during that time. More teams have gone with that approach and the results have been largely positive. So for however many regular season games are played (if any), they’re in good shape.
But who’s going to lead them in the postseason? Teams typically pick one and stick with that goalie throughout though Grubauer himself was one of the exceptions a couple of years ago in Washington. Six weeks ago, it looked like Grubauer was the favorite to start. But Francouz’s performance in his absence suggests he may be worthy of the number one job now. A return to regular season games could help solve this but if the NHL jumps right into the playoffs, Jared Bednar has quite a decision to make.
Quest For 100
Two years ago, MacKinnon came up just shy of the 100-point mark as he had 97 in 74 games. Last season, he got even closer; while his point per game average went down, he played in all 82 contests and got to 99 points. This season, he was well on his way to getting there and likely would have hit that mark even though he’d have missed this week due to injury. He currently sits at 93 points in 69 games with his 1.35 point per game average being the best of his career.
If regular season play resumes, it’s quite possible MacKinnon will get to 100 even if the schedule winds up being truncated by a few games. If not, he’ll take aim at that plateau next season and will instead have to settle for leading the team in scoring by a country mile. (He currently sits 43 points ahead of Makar who is second in points with 50.)
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
PHR Originals: 3/9/20 – 3/15/20
Here is a rundown of the original content at PHR over the past week.
Group VI free agency doesn’t typically get much attention but one of the things to watch for down the stretch each season is which players can still avoid it and whether or not those teams bring those players up to retain their rights. I took a look at the four players that could still avoid hitting the open market although those situations could change depending on what happens with the schedule in the weeks to come.
Gavin held his weekly Thursday chat in the immediate aftermath of the suspension of the schedule. Topics included the annual awards, college free agency, minor league postponements, and more.
Our Stretch Run Storylines series kicked off as we look at the Central Division. I examined what to watch for in St. Louis where the defending Stanley Cup champions could be a team to watch for if play resumes. Vladimir Tarasenko’s return should bolster an already strong and deep attack while they possess arguably the top pending unrestricted free agent in Alex Pietrangelo as well who could be too expensive for them to keep.
The NCAA announced this past week that they would extend eligibility for those playing spring sports and added that they would discuss the issue for those (including hockey players) that weren’t able to complete their conference and NCAA championships. Zach broke down how that could potentially be accomplished as well as forecasting what the field for the NCAA tournament could have looked like.
Every year, there are trades that contain conditional elements for a draft pick to be transferred over. These can often pertain to games played although there has also been the odd one also is based on the production of a player with his new team. Some of those are still in flux; Gavin assessed those and how the potential return of regular season contests could make or break those conditions.
Part two of our mailbag is now available. Topics I tackled in this one included Henrik Lundqvist’s future with the Rangers now that he’s the clear-cut third option, Kyle Dubas’ tenure as the GM with Toronto, a projection for Philadelphia in the playoffs, and more.
Stretch Run Storylines: St. Louis Blues
As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks. Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run. Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team. First up is a look at the Central Division, beginning with St. Louis.
The Blues had a bit of a sluggish start to their season with just three wins in their first eight games but since then, they have been the top team in the Western Conference and as a result, they sit atop the division as well as the Western Conference. That has the defending Stanley Cup Champions sitting in good shape whenever play resumes, even more so considering one of their top players will return which highlights their top storylines to watch for.
Tarasenko’s Return
Shoulder injuries have plagued winger Vladimir Tarasenko for a while now and another one suffered in his tenth game of the season has caused him to miss most of the year. However, at the time he underwent surgery, the projected timeline for his return was late March or early April which made GM Doug Armstrong decide not to use LTIR relief to acquire a replacement, a move that seems particularly prescient now. If they had acquired someone using LTIR, they wouldn’t be able to activate Tarasenko until they found a way to get in cap compliance and with the trade deadline now long passed, that would be next to impossible.
Barring any unexpected setbacks, Tarasenko should be able to return to the lineup whenever play resumes which will give a team that already has hovered around the top-ten in scoring this season its top scoring threat back. There is bound to be some rust although some of that will be offset by this extended layoff for everyone. Getting his timing back before the postseason gets underway would be a big boost to a team that’s certainly going to be capable for another long playoff run.
Pietrangelo’s Increasing Value
The contracts given to Erik Karlsson ($11.5MM) and Drew Doughty ($11MM) have helped place the spotlight on defenseman Alex Pietrangelo who is now pegged to get a significant raise on his current $6.5MM AAV. Heading into the year, some had suggested a deal in the $9MM range could be his target but that may very well be on the low side.
Very quietly, the captain has put up a career year offensively. He already has a new top mark in goals (16) while his assists per game and points per game marks are also the best of his career. If the NHL resumes with some regular season action, he will almost certainly set new highs in those categories as well. After having a bit of a quieter year offensively in 2018-19, he has rebounded quite nicely and that’s only going to help his value.
As things stand, the Blues can’t afford to re-sign him and fill out the rest of their roster even if the Upper Limit of the salary cap goes up slightly. (And with everything that’s happening, that’s not as likely as it was just a few weeks ago.) As a result, it is a distinct possibility that Pietrangelo is playing out his final days in St. Louis.
Scoring Race
The battle for the top spot in the division should be tightly contested as Colorado is only two spots behind them and this layoff gives them a chance to get some of their players healthy as well. But there is another race that is certainly intriguing, the battle to lead the team in points.
While St. Louis doesn’t have anyone near the point per game mark, they have four players within four points of each other for the team lead in Ryan O’Reilly (61), David Perron (60), Brayden Schenn (58), and Jaden Schwartz (57). Four points isn’t a big gap so it’s quite possible that this particular race could go down to the wire.
O’Reilly and Perron are signed for two more years after this one while Schenn signed an eight-year extension back in October that kicks in for 2020-21. But Schwartz will be entering the final season of his deal this summer which makes him eligible for a contract extension. A strong finish to his campaign will certainly bolster his bargaining power. If he can get that team lead, it’ll be even stronger.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
PHR Mailbag: Lightning, Red Wings Draft, Lundqvist, Blues, Dubas, Flyers
Topics in this edition of the mailbag include Tampa Bay’s spot in the Atlantic, worst case odds for Detroit in the draft lottery, Henrik Lundqvist’s future, the backup situation for the Blues, Kyle Dubas’ tenure with Toronto, and a projection for the Flyers in the postseason. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last weekend’s mailbag.
mydadleftme: Any chance you think the Lightning are avoiding first place so they don’t have to match up against the Blue Jackets again? Is it actually safer for them to play the Maple Leafs?
I wouldn’t say Tampa Bay was actively trying to avoid reaching the top spot in the Atlantic Division to avoid being matched up with Columbus again. A big factor for them not them contending with Boston is their cold start to the season. It wasn’t until mid-December that they started to find their form and in doing so, they left a lot of points on the table. Let’s also give the Bruins some credit – they’ve earned their spot atop the standings.
I’ll touch more on Toronto later but I don’t think they’d be the easier matchup compared to a Wild Card team from the Metropolitan such as Columbus. The Maple Leafs, when they’re on their game, have the firepower to keep pace with the Lightning. The Blue Jackets or Hurricanes don’t. Sure, Toronto may not be built for the postseason based on a general lack of physicality on the roster aside from a few players but Tampa Bay is somewhat of a finesse team as well which mitigates that concern somewhat. If this winds up being the matchup (depending on if and when the games resume and if the playoff structure will be the same), it certainly won’t be an easy one.
tigers22: If the lottery takes a turn for the worse and the Red Wings get passed by three teams and select fourth, do you believe they will take a look at the top goalie prospect or trade down to collect more picks for this rebuild?
This is a really interesting question. Detroit certainly needs goaltending in a big way and their depth at all levels isn’t great. (Having said that, I think Keith Petruzzelli has at least a bit of upside.) But, I don’t think Yaroslav Askarov is worth the number four pick. The Red Wings could plausibly trade down and still get him closer to the back end of the top ten which would be the best of both worlds for your worst case scenario.
But is that the right way to go? I’m not so sure.
It is quite risky to draft for need that early in the draft and with goaltenders, they usually take a lot longer than position players to get to the NHL level. Chances are that players like blueliner Jamie Drysdale or winger Lucas Raymond would make an impact much sooner than Askarov would.
There’s also the distinct possibility that by the time that Askarov is ready to play in the NHL, Detroit’s goaltending need would be solved. They have plenty of cap room to work with this summer so they’re going to be going after players like Jacob Markstrom, Robin Lehner, and Braden Holtby if they make it to the open market. If they commit to one of them as their long-term starter, the need for Askarov would be lessened. Of course, the draft falls before free agency so it’s not as if GM Steve Yzerman will know who his likely new starter will be by then. If they did want Askarov though if this particular scenario occurs, they should be able to trade down for him.
met man: Now that Lundqvist has been demoted to third string, do you think he will consider retirement? I love the guy, but his time seems to have passed.
I think that would be Plan A for the Rangers at this point as it would avoid another season of the awkwardness that has seen Lundqvist play all of five games over the last two months (two of those coming in relief). If he was to voluntarily retire, everyone would walk away and the goalie controversy would be over.
But why would the 38-year-old want to do that voluntarily? While his contract was frontloaded, he’s still owed $5.5MM in salary for next season (which includes a $1MM signing bonus). He has made a lot of money in his career but $5.5MM is $5.5MM. Yes, Roberto Luongo walked away with some money left on the table but the total money owing to him over the final three years that were left on his deal is far less than Lundqvist’s salary so the situations are far from the same.
At this point, a trade is unlikely. He doesn’t want to leave and with an $8.5MM cap hit, no one’s going to want him at that price tag. That leaves two options – carry three goalies again or go for the buyout. The former isn’t appealing as their cap space will be limited by the time they re-sign their other free agents and the latter isn’t appealing either as it involves paying a franchise legend to go away. But it’s the lesser of two evils at that point. If that happens, then Lundqvist can decide if he wants to try somewhere else or walk away and essentially retire as a Ranger (or close to it). Doing it that way makes him a lot more money than if he was to retire following the season.
vincent k. mcmahon: If the Blues move Jake Allen this summer, would Ville Husso be Jordan Binnington’s backup or would they look at the FA market?
I would say it almost has to be Husso in that scenario. They already have nearly $74MM in commitments to 17 players on the current roster for next season and that doesn’t include Alex Pietrangelo who they certainly want to re-sign. It’ll take all of their remaining room and then some (perhaps Allen being moved) to get him signed so it’s unlikely they’ll be able to afford to turn to free agency to pay for a backup. That market has gone up considerably the last few years with good second stringers getting more than $3MM per year. That’s well out of the price range for St. Louis.
Back at the end of January, GM Doug Armstrong gave Husso a two-year, one-way extension worth $750K which gives him some cost certainty at that position. If he remains in the minors next year, he’s an affordable injury recall and if he’s the backup, he’ll give the Blues some much needed financial flexibility. There’s a risk going with Husso as Binnington’s backup but it’s one that is justified to take.
jimmertee: Does Dubas still have a job after an early Leafs playoff exit?
General managers don’t have anywhere near as short a shelf life as head coaches do. It takes time for them to execute their vision for the roster and even longer to see if it’s the right approach or if tweaks or needed. While Dubas has been with Toronto since 2014, he has only been in the GM chair for two seasons. That’s not a lot of time to execute and evaluate his strategy.
Rightfully or not, he has gone all in on the big four up front which is going to leave a lot of positions in flux every year in terms of roster turnover while decisions will eventually have to be made regarding core players in Morgan Rielly and Frederik Andersen and how they can afford to keep or replace them. Brendan Shanahan signed off on Dubas going the way he did with building his team. Now he needs to let his GM navigate the salary cap challenges associated with those decisions. I’m sure they’ve foreseen the challenges ahead long before they committed to this approach so there’s likely a plan in place already.
As for the potential for an early playoff exit, it’s certainly possible considering how much of an up and down team they were in the weeks leading up to the pause in the schedule. At their worst, they could be swept pretty easily. But when they’re on, they can play with the best of them. If the standings hold and it’s a usual playoff format, they’d get Tampa Bay and I think they match up relatively well with them so a quick out would be far from a guarantee. It’d be one of the tighter series in the entire first round. But no matter how that plays out, Dubas should still be calling the shots for the foreseeable future.
Darkside830: How far will the Flyers go?
I’m not sold on Philadelphia just yet. Time and time again, they’ve had hot streaks which have been immediately followed by lengthy winless droughts which give back most of what they gained in the standings. Perhaps this layoff will be beneficial to them in that respect.
But how well will their scoring by committee approach work in the postseason? Vegas showed two years ago that it’s doable but plenty of other times, top talent has helped push teams over the top. The Flyers have a lot of quality players but their top talent isn’t at the level of some of the other teams in the division that they’ll need to push through in the postseason.
I’m also leery about trusting young goaltending in the playoffs. Let’s give Carter Hart plenty of credit. He has navigated the early trials and tribulations of the NHL rather well for someone that won’t turn 22 until the summer. But this will be his first crack at the postseason and over the years, some top young goalies have faltered in their first test. (Some have thrived too but it’s a question mark nonetheless.)
A month ago, I’d have had a hard time thinking they’d win a round. I think that’s doable now. But I still can’t see them getting past Washington in the second round, even if they happen to leapfrog them in the standings and get home ice advantage for that series. Even if that was to occur, it’d still be a pretty successful season for the Flyers after missing the playoffs last season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
PHR Mailbag: Zibanejad, AHL Affiliations, Pastrnak, Hurricanes, Canadiens, Thornton
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Mika Zibanejad, the AHL affiliation shuffle, David Pastrnak’s chances of leading the league in goals, Carolina’s potential Stadium Series opponent, Montreal’s offseason activity, and Joe Thornton. If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next week’s mailbag.
MoneyBallJustWorks: I know it could be recency bias but is Mika Zibanejad one of the most underrated players in the NHL?
A five-goal game will certainly change his underrated status in a hurry. I don’t think I’d go as far as calling him one of the most underrated in the league but he has certainly flown under the radar for a while. (At least until this past Thursday.)
Part of the season is that up until recently, Zibanejad has been someone that hasn’t necessarily lived up to his draft billing on the offensive side of things. He was a sixth overall pick of Ottawa but he has only reached the 50-point mark three times in his career (and one of those saw him get 51). That lack of offensive progression was part of the reason the Senators sold him fairly low with Derick Brassard being the focal point of the return.
That deal looks quite serendipitous now for the Rangers but he even had a slow start there over his first couple of seasons. Yes, his production jumped last year but in those circumstances, the question is always if that was just a fluke or a sign of things to come? It’s looking like the latter and as such, his days of being underrated are likely coming to an end.
He’s still signed for two more years after this one at a $5.35MM AAV which is suddenly looking like quite the bargain for New York. Given the continued demand for top centers, he’s going to be well-positioned to get a huge raise if he makes it to the open market in 2022 at the age of 29.
lennyleonardseye: What are St Louis’ options when it comes to finding a new AHL affiliate? Can they get it done soon or will they have to share a team again like they did in 17-18? What happens to the 5-year contract they had? Why does Vegas keep snatching up the Blues’ AHL teams?
The Blues decided to answer this one for me as they announced on Friday that they’ve signed a five-year affiliation agreement with Springfield which continues the seemingly annual game of affiliation musical chairs. According to AHL reporter Mark Divver, Carolina (Charlotte) may join in on the fun as well.
With about a dozen teams still being independently owned (the rest are owned by NHL teams directly), there is the potential for this type of movement with some regularity. The opportunity to get a team that’s closer to the parent franchise is always tempting while other times, the NHL team will want more of a say when it comes to stocking the roster with non-NHL-affiliated players. (That one likely had a role in Vegas taking over in Chicago, a move that also made some sense given that they didn’t have a full complement of players to start.) Vegas bought San Antonio’s franchise which supersedes the agreement they had with St. Louis.
If the Blues want some longer-term security, purchasing a team directly would be the way to go. If they don’t want to do that, then they run the risk of this happening. If nothing else, a five-year deal is a decent consolation prize at the very least. (Unless another NHL team comes in and buys them, of course.)
mydadleftme: Do you think Pastrnak loses his lead in goals?? He’s held on for what seems like the whole season. Also, do you see him keeping this 50 goal a season thing up for a while and maybe touches 60 one season?
It’s going to be a tight race, that’s for sure. Heading into today’s action, Pastrnak is tied with Alex Ovechkin for the lead with 47 with Auston Matthews just behind at 46. (Leon Draisaitl is in the mix as well with 43.) So it’s certainly quite possible (if not likely) he loses the lead at some point. Having said that, I think he can get the title as long as Boston doesn’t start resting players down the stretch and with the lead they have in the Atlantic Division, that’s certainly a possibility.
While scoring is up a bit compared to a few years ago, it’s extremely tough to do so with any kind of long-term regularity. Ovechkin, easily the best goal scorer of this generation, has only managed to hit the 50-goal mark in three consecutive seasons before dipping under that mark. Boston’s top line is dominant, no doubt, so a repeat performance next year is certainly a possibility (assuming he stays healthy and gets there this season, of course). But no, I’m not going to predict a lengthy run of 50-goal campaigns for him or anyone, really. We’ve seen one 60-goal guy over the last decade (Steven Stamkos) and even Ovechkin has only gotten there once. A lot has to break right to get there and I’m not prepared to put Pastrnak at that threshold just yet.
acarneglia: Who do you think Carolina will play in their Stadium Series game next season?
If I was picking the opponent for an outdoor game, I’d focus on the three Rs.
Rivalry: This one would normally come into play but I don’t think it does here as the Hurricanes don’t have any true rivals. They’re still a relatively young franchise in terms of their time in Carolina and with minimal playoff appearances lately, they haven’t developed many that way either. This one gets a lower priority than it would for most as a result.
Relevance: There’s a reason you seldom see out of conference matchups in these events. While outdoor games can be a spectacle in themselves, the league is still going to want this to be a meaningful game. A random Western opponent doesn’t have the same relevance in terms of the standings as an in-division or in-conference game would. So I’d lean towards an Eastern opponent.
Ratings: Carolina has certainly been one of the more interesting teams in the league over the last couple of years. But is that enough for them to be the focal point to draw ratings for this game? Probably not. Instead, the rights holder (NBC) will probably want a larger market team to be involved to help up the ratings. Yes, that means Pittsburgh and Washington jump to the top of the list and perhaps New York (the Rangers, not the Islanders) as well.
If Carolina makes the playoffs this season, it wouldn’t shock me if they wind up getting Washington in the first round. If that happens, I’d lean towards them getting the nod in a postseason rematch (the rivalry factor). If not, I’d classify any one of those three Metropolitan teams as early favorites.
goosr: What is the Canadiens’ biggest move in the offseason?
I’ve been flip-flopping on this for a bit now. With how disappointing a season that Montreal has had, it’s certainly reasonable to think that GM Marc Bergevin would be willing to take a big swing on his roster. They’re hosting the draft which presents an opportunity to make a splash as well.
And yet, I can just as easily see a scenario where they basically do next to nothing this summer. They’re expected to sign Alexander Romanov and Bergevin has all but said he’ll be on the NHL roster next season. They’ll probably sign a new backup goalie. But based on the confidence that Bergevin seems to have in this roster, he might think that those moves would be enough, coupled with some better luck on the injury front and the continued development of some of their young players. (Jesperi Kotkaniemi taking a big step would certainly help in this regard.)
While I wouldn’t be shocked if they make a substantial trade, at this point, I think their biggest move this offseason may come from internal extensions. Jeff Petry, Brendan Gallagher, and Tomas Tatar (even Phillip Danault potentially) are all looking at big contracts and they’re eligible for extensions in July. Their biggest splash could very well be simply getting one or more of them signed to a big money, long-term extension.
The way that Montreal’s roster is structured, I think they’re a year away from really changing the core. In the 2021 summer, they have three NHL forwards under contract in Jonathan Drouin, Paul Byron, and Nick Suzuki. A couple (Kotkaniemi and Artturi Lehkonen) will be restricted free agents. That number should increase when Max Domi (who would be my darkhorse candidate for a trade given Montreal’s young center depth) re-signs this summer and if some of the UFAs sign early but still, that’s a lot of roster spots up for grabs and they’re not all going to be filled internally.
If the opportunity comes to strike around the draft, maybe they do something of consequence but Bergevin’s faith in their roster and the way their contracts are staggered suggests to me the bigger changes may still be another season away.
ironcity341: If the Sharks would buy out Thornton, would he be eligible for the playoffs if he signed with a new team?
A quick point of clarification to start, buyouts happen in the offseason, not in-season. The only way a player gets out of his contract once the calendar turns to September is via a contract termination. Although Thornton conveyed his disappointment about not being dealt to a Stanley Cup contender, that’s not going to happen.
Even if it did, Thornton wouldn’t be eligible to play in the playoffs anyway. For a player to be postseason eligible, they have to be on the Reserve List for that time when the trade deadline hits. It’s not like the NBA where players can be bought out after the trade deadline and free agents can be playoff eligible as long as they sign by the end of the regular season (and weren’t waived or bought out after March 1st). Whatever team they’re on when the clock strikes 2 PM CST on trade deadline is the only one they can play in the playoffs for. It’s San Jose or bust for Thornton and given that they’re not making the playoffs this season, he’ll have to play for another year to get another crack at the postseason.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag
The NHL trade deadline has passed and there are only a handful of games left in the regular season. Teams have fine tuned their rosters for a postseason run, or are looking forward to the draft lottery and offseason frenzy. Who are the real contenders for the Stanley Cup? Which deadline rentals will pay off? Who is best positioned to take a big step in their rebuild?
With those questions and many more in mind, it’s time to run our post-deadline mailbag. You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. Make sure to get your questions in early and we’ll try to get through as many of them as possible when the mailbag runs on the weekend.
If you missed our pre-deadline mailbag, it was split into two parts you can read here and here. In the first, Brian tackled questions about the expansion draft, Jesse Puljujarvi‘s future and Shea Weber‘s health. The second took on the question of chemistry in a locker room, the Rangers’ goaltending situation and potential player holdouts in the future.
PHR Originals: 2/24/20 – 3/1/20
Here’s a rundown of the original content over the past seven days here at PHR.
Just before the trade frenzy started, I assessed Winnipeg’s situation heading into the trade deadline. Having already acquired Cody Eakin and Dylan DeMelo, it seemed unlikely that they’d be doing much more and that what wound up happening as they were one of the few teams to stand pat on Monday.
Gavin held two chats this week. The first was in the morning on trade deadline day which wound up featuring way more activity early in the day than we’ve seen in a long time. He also held his usual Thursday chat. Topics included Jacob Markstrom’s future, a prediction for who gets the final playoff spot in the Atlantic Division, Colorado’s goaltending situation heading into the playoffs, evaluating Anaheim’s recent trades, and more.
As is often the case, there was no shortage of draft picks moving around leading up to the trade deadline. Now that the moves have come to an end, Gavin broke down the draft pick situation for each team. Montreal leads the way with 14 selections in June’s draft while Ottawa sits one behind them at 13 but has three first-rounders at their disposal. At the opposite end, Pittsburgh has just four with the earliest coming in the third round.
While it is realistically too early to conclusively state which team had the best showing at the trade deadline, waiting the number of years that is needed to fairly do so just isn’t that fun. With that in mind, we have a poll on who you think had the best showing at the deadline. Click here to make your pick.
Zach took a tour around college hockey which is seeing its regular season soon come to an end. On top of going over the recent results, he took a look at the future Frozen Four applications as well as a key injury to one of the top prospects that was moved at the trade deadline.
March 1st is more than just another day on the NHL calendar as it has some implications on the transaction front. I took a look at the CBA elements that come into effect as of then and why there will likely be an influx of prospect signings in the near future.
With Robin Lehner being traded to Vegas, it appears he is no longer in Chicago’s plans to be their goalie of the future. Corey Crawford is 35 and isn’t going to be around much longer. That means GM Stan Bowman has a decision to make. Does he stick with Crawford on a short-term contract or look to make a splash in free agency this summer? Which route is the right one to go? Have your say by voting in our poll.
PHR Originals: 2/17/20 – 2/23/20
With the trade deadline almost here, there has been plenty of original content here at PHR over the past seven days and those articles are highlighted here.
We wrapped up our trade deadline primers for the Metropolitan Division with Gavin breaking down the situations for the Rangers, Flyers, Penguins, and Capitals. The latter three are all likely to be buyers although limited cap space could have them shopping for depth players. New York is interesting – while they’ve been perceived as a likely seller, they’re not that far out of a Wild Card spot either so it’s far from a guarantee that they go that route now.
Last up is our tour of the Central Division. I previewed the Blackhawks, Avalanche, and Blues while Holger did the same for the Stars, Wild, and Predators. Of those teams, Colorado may be the one to keep an eye on in the hours leading up to the deadline as they have plenty of cap space and roster spots to fill due to injuries.
Gavin held his weekly Thursday chat. While the trade deadline dominated the topics, other discussion points included a pair of rookie wingers that have been big surprises this season, the surprising Blue Jackets, Dustin Byfuglien’s playing future, and more.
In our Trade Candidate profiles, the focus has predominantly been players that are going to fill an important role on a contender but there are often players that are moved simply to improve depth going into the playoffs. Buffalo winger Conor Sheary is one of those players; I examined what teams he could fit in on if a team decides to make a late move for him on Monday.
Part two of our mailbag is now available. Topics included the willingness for teams to consider chemistry at the junior level in determining player acquisitions, Henrik Lundqvist and Brady Skjei’s future with the Rangers, Detroit’s dilemma with Andreas Athanasiou, and more.