PHR Mailbag: Player Chemistry, Rangers, Renegotiations, Athanasiou
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the impact of prior chemistry affecting player evaluations, plenty of talk about the Rangers, how the inability to renegotiate contracts could result in more bridge deals down the road, and Detroit’s challenging situation surrounding Andreas Athanasiou. If your question doesn’t appear here, check for it in last weekend’s mailbag.
sovietcanuckistanian: How much stock do you (or anyone in a front office I guess) put in chemistry amongst players in/at the minors level transitioning to the pros? I ask, because, I watched MacKinnon and Drouin play together in Halifax (QMJHL). The year they won the Memorial Cup, they had Martin Frk on their line (he seems to be doing okay for himself as part of the Kings AHL squad – but languishing a little at sticking with NHL opportunities). Would the Habs or Avs (or any team that has players that have juniors chemistry) target a player like that as an inexpensive deadline pickup? Or am I putting too much stock in such things? – Thanks for your insight.
To use Frk specifically as an example, both Montreal and Colorado have had ample opportunities to pick him up over recent seasons considering the frequency that he has found himself on the waiver wire. At the very least, those two teams don’t seem to think it’s much of a factor. Personally, I’m inclined to agree.
While players on the fringes of an NHL spot can sometimes turn around and lock down a full-time role, it’s rarely high in the lineup. Chances are that the player you’re trying to find that chemistry with is higher in the lineup. You’d have to be a team that’s well out of contention early on in order to have the willingness to put that fringe player in a key role for an extended period of time to see if the chemistry can be rekindled. There typically aren’t many teams out of it early enough to do so.
In a lot of instances, a lot of time has elapsed between their junior success and the present day. Look at Frk – his big year with Nathan MacKinnon and Jonathan Drouin was back in 2012-13, seven seasons ago. All three players have had a multitude of linemates since then; lots has changed so teams aren’t realistically going to expect them to pick up where they left off after so much time has passed.
This isn’t to say that it’s entirely meaningless. I think it’s something that could be used on the checklist when evaluating potential additions. Having the potential – minute as it may be in some circumstances – is something that is a plus. But in most cases, past chemistry from the junior level with a current player on the team shouldn’t be a significant factor in determining whether or not to bring a particular player onboard.
met man: Are the Ranger Russian goalies exempt from the upcoming expansion draft? What are the criteria for exposure?
The league has already confirmed that they will use the same rules as they did for the Vegas draft. That means that players on the first or second year of their entry-level contracts (or have two years or less of NHL experience) will be exempt. This works out perfectly for the Rangers.
While Igor Shesterkin has plenty of professional experience, the NHL doesn’t view his time in the KHL as professional experience. He’ll be wrapping up the second and final year of his entry-level deal so he is exempt. Alexandar Georgiev will be eligible for selection but he’s certain to be the one that’s protected. Henrik Lundqvist, if not bought out this summer, will be weeks away from unrestricted free agency so he’ll be left unprotected. At this point, their biggest concern when it comes to the Seattle draft and goaltending will be finding someone to leave unprotected since at least one netminder under contract has to be left exposed.
It’ll be a great summer for veteran AHL goalies this summer as two-year deals should be handed out to quite a few of them in order to satisfy that particular requirement. Expect the Rangers to be one of the teams giving out that particular contract to someone.
pitmanrich: Has age finally caught up with Henrik Lundqvist or is it David Quinn/Lindy Ruff’s defensive system which regularly gives up 40+ shots per night to blame for his dramatic decline over last 18 months? Can he rebound and help the Rangers make the playoffs next year or is he a backup goalie nowadays?
I think it’s age more than anything else. This season notwithstanding, Lundqvist has basically been New York’s undisputed starter for the better part of the last 14 years. He had a pretty big workload in Sweden before coming to North America too. He has had a great career but it is clearly soon coming to an end. I think his days of being a number one, regardless of whose system is in place, are pretty much numbered.
Given how well he has played over his career, I certainly wouldn’t write him off entirely as a factor for next year as a backup goalie…if he’s still around. With their pending salary cap issues, it’s certainly a possibility that the Rangers decide to buy out the final year of his deal which would save them $3MM on next year’s salary cap. Considering he’ll likely still be the third-stringer if they hold onto Shesterkin and Georgiev, that may not be the worst idea either even though it would add $1.5MM onto the books for 2021-22.
CoachWall: I have read rumors that the Rangers are listening on Brady Skjei, which makes sense. He is a big ticket item and hasn’t lived up to the hype. What are you hearing?
Knowing the cap crunch that’s coming with Georgiev, Ryan Strome, and Anthony DeAngelo needing new deals (and perhaps fitting in Chris Kreider as well if an extension is worked out), GM Jeff Gorton is certainly going to be exploring all of his cost-cutting options and by default, that’s going to be Skjei. His name has been in speculation going back to when he signed his six-year, $31.5MM deal but I don’t think there’s a move coming with him.
If they want to free up money, they can attach a draft pick or prospect to try to get out of (or reduce) Marc Staal or Brendan Smith’s contract. As mentioned earlier, a buyout on Lundqvist gives them some wiggle room. With due respect to those players, that frees up the money without taking away from the core like a Skjei trade would.
The Rangers don’t really have a replacement that’s ready in their system to take his place either. While it’s possible (if not probable) that they’d receive a young defender as part of any trade return, they’re making a weak spot even weaker with a Skjei trade. They’re looking to come out of their rebuild so moving him would set that back a bit.
Having said that, with the trade market favoring the sellers and players with term (Skjei has four years left after this one) drawing a lot of interest, perhaps there’s a deal out there that’s too good to be true for him. But if they don’t get that, he’s probably not going anywhere.
MoneyBallJustWorks: Do you ever see players in the league eventually following basketball and NFL players in holding out for trades or new contracts if underpaid? Players like MacKinnon and Pastrnak certainly deserve more but seems like hockey players just are content to ride out the bad contract.
They probably aren’t content to ride out their below-market deal but they don’t have a choice. Unlike the NFL, contract renegotiations aren’t legal in the CBA. It’s part of the reason that I think we’ll start to see a few more short-term bridge contracts in the years to come. While some players are okay with the extra security that comes with a long-term deal that sets them up for life, others certainly want to maximize their compensation and wouldn’t want to run the risk of being in a situation like this.
For what it’s worth, contract renegotiations are quite rare in the NBA; the trade requests in that league often pertain to other reasons (lack of playing time, a more desirable market, etc). Hoops Rumors’ Glossary contains an overview of the very specific criteria required for a renegotiation to occur in the NBA.
tigers22: Red Wings trade AA to St Louis for a 2020 2nd round pick, 2021 1st, and a conditional 2023 2nd (1st rounder if Blues repeat as cup champions. Sound good?
It sounds great for Detroit but the Blues wouldn’t have any interest in that. For starters, they don’t have the cap space to make a deal work (even with Jay Bouwmeester on LTIR) and considering the disastrous season that Athanasiou is having, that would be a significant overpay. Last summer when he was coming off his 30-goal season, a first-rounder and another piece would have been about right in terms of trade value. Now, they might be hard-pressed to get the second-rounder on its own (and St. Louis no longer has their 2020 second-rounder which wasn’t the case when this question was posed).
To say this year has been a disaster for him would be a huge understatement. He just managed to reach the 10-goal mark this week and while plus/minus isn’t as big of a deal as it once was, being -45 in 46 games is ghastly. It’s already in the bottom-30 among forwards in NHL history and if he keeps up this particular pace, he’d be within striking distance of the all-time low among NHL forwards (Washington’s Tommy Williams in 1974-75 had a -69 rating).
This presents a bit of a conundrum for GM Steve Yzerman. Selling low is never ideal but Yzerman will need to decide if he’s part of their long-term core. If so, then they need to get a long-term deal done this summer. If not, Athanasiou would be wise to take a one-year pact which would put him within striking distance of UFA eligibility. That won’t help his value either. He’s an intriguing change of scenery candidate and, quite frankly, may benefit from it but when is the right time to pull the trigger on a trade? It certainly isn’t going to be an easy call to make.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
PHR Originals: 02/10/20 – 02/16/20
During what has been a busy week around the NHL, the writers at PHR still had some time to produce some original content. Check it out:
With the NHL Trade Deadline just over a week away on Monday, February 24, we continued to take a look at how teams are approaching their last chance to make deals this season. We wrapped up the Atlantic Division, as Gavin Lee anticipated the Tampa Bay Lightning’s pursuit of bottom-six grit – they got that and more in Sunday’s acquisition of Blake Coleman – while Brian La Rose looked at the Toronto Maple Leafs’ continued needs even after the additions of Kyle Clifford and Jack Campbell. Attention then turned to the Metropolitan Division. Gavin examined the Carolina Hurricanes’ reported willingness to make a big move on the blue line, Brian pondered whether the Columbus Blue Jackets would make a splash this year, and Holger Stolzenberg offered a well-time preview of the New Jersey Devils and New York Islanders, who came together for a trade on Sunday.
In addition to team previews, big names on the trade block are also worthy of a closer look at PHR. This week, Brian took the time to examine the market for well-regarded defenseman Brenden Dillon of the San Jose Sharks. An impending free agent, Dillon is a lock to be moved, but the destination remains a mystery. The stay-at-home specialist could be that key defensive presence for a team fighting for a playoff spot or an extravagant depth addition for a major contender.
While it’s one of the most exciting stretches of the NHL season right now, it is also an important time for the college game, as teams march towards conference tournaments and the start of the NCAA postseason next month. I took my bi-weekly look at the college landscape in the latest edition of College Hockey Round-Up, discussing the dominance of Jordan Kawaguchi and No. 1 North Dakota, the raging battle in Hockey East, an unlikely commitment by a future NHL prospect, and the Olympic dreams of the first Japanese Division I hockey player.
In another regular piece, Brian answered your questions in another edition of the PHR Mailbag. Topics ranged from trade deadline rumors about the likes of Chris Kreider and Jesse Puljujarvi, to the future of Montreal’s Shea Weber, and the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft.
Finally, of course, is Gavin’s weekly PHR Live Chat. He fielded numerous questions pertaining to the impending trade deadline, including the possible plans of the Golden Knights, Blues, Capitals, Maple Leafs, Bruins, Blackhawks, Flames, Wild, Penguins, Senators, and more. And if that wasn’t enough, he also discussed the future of Nolan Patrick, tried his best to explain Player Safety decisions, and threw out his top five prospects for the upcoming draft.
Don’t miss out on all thee great original content from PHR, coming at you each and every week!
PHR Mailbag: Weber, Rangers, Expansion, Puljujarvi, Flyers
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include how Shea Weber’s injury will affect Montreal’s deadline plans, where Chris Kreider could wind up, expansion discussion, the chances of RFA winger Jesse Puljujarvi being moved by the deadline, and how active (or inactive) the Flyers may be over the next week.
If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.
bigdaddyt: What’s the chances that Weber is done for season/career? And what does Montreal do in response to either?
Since this question was posed, the Canadiens received an update on Weber’s status after he met with the specialist that performed his surgery back in 2018. The prognosis was largely positive as they announced he’ll miss four-to-six weeks with an ankle sprain. So it’s certainly not a career-ender which was being floated out there and if Montreal does manage to claw their way back into the playoff hunt, he’ll be back at some point. (I’m not counting on that happening so I wouldn’t be surprised if they ultimately just shut him down for the season.)
As for what it does for Montreal’s plans, probably not a whole lot. Jeff Petry’s name is out there but since the Canadiens have no intention of committing to a larger-scale rebuild, they didn’t have a lot of incentive to move him before this happened. I thought Christian Folin, a right-shot defender, could be moved to a contending team looking for depth but given Montreal’s shallow right-side depth which extends to the minors, that isn’t as much of a guarantee now. They’re certainly not going to turn around and trade for a right-shot replacement though. Cale Fleury may get another look at some point as well.
Weber’s injury undoubtedly hurts the Canadiens but in the grand scheme of things, it really shouldn’t affect their plans moving forward on the trade front.
acarneglia: Where does Kreider end up and what do the Rangers get for him? How about Georgiev?
Given their trade history and the fact that the Bruins are known to be quite interested in Kreider, they’re a popular speculative destination for him. I wouldn’t be shocked if he landed there either. But I’m going in a different direction here.
The Avalanche have a short window to try to win before players like Cale Makar and Gabriel Landeskog need new, pricier contracts. (Philipp Grubauer is also up at that time so if they go for a more proven goalie at that time, that’s another big cost on the horizon.) They’re probably not going to land a legitimate goaltending upgrade so why not improve their strong spot instead? They were in on Taylor Hall to an extent so they’re not against going for a rental like Kreider is.
New York isn’t necessarily just looking for picks and young prospects. Given where they are in the rebuild, young NHL-ready players are going to be in the asking price. Colorado has a couple of those that could move in a deal like this in Tyson Jost and Vladislav Kamenev. They’re also in a pretty safe spot in the playoffs and have a quality prospect pool so moving their first-rounder shouldn’t be much of a concern. I’ll toss out two scenarios here – if Jost is involved, it’s him and the first-round pick and that’s plenty. If Kamenev is the player involved with the first-rounder, then I think there’s a lower pick involved (or comparable prospect). Something like a 2021 fourth-rounder that upgrades to a third if he re-signs or the Avs reach the Western Conference Final.
As for Alexandar Georgiev, I don’t think he’s going anywhere now that Toronto made their move for Jack Campbell instead. The market for goalies is typically soft at this time of year and with the Maple Leafs out of the mix, that’s one less potential suitor for his services already. I don’t think there’s enough demand for New York to land a strong return and there’s no point in taking less than they want to merely get a deal done. Get to the offseason with the three goalies and then reassess the situation at that time.
M34: With the expansion draft looming, one would have to think that teams need to be mindful of their assets versus their protection rights.
What does a team like Colorado do regarding a contract like Erik Johnson’s? He has a full NMC, but certainly the Avalanche do not want to be forced to use a protection slot on him. Is a buyout a realistic option or do they have to try and convince him to waive the NMC? Of course they would have to take a minimal return, probably retain salary, etc, in a trade scenario.
Also, what other players fall in a similar category?
Considering probably 30% or more of most rosters will change between now and Seattle’s draft in 2021, I’m not sure teams are really worried about that just yet. Pittsburgh just went and added someone that they’ll need to protect in Jason Zucker but I suspect that didn’t give GM Jim Rutherford any pause before he decided to pull the trigger on the deal. I expect that it will start to be a bit more of a consideration at June when a good chunk of the summer trading happens but until rosters are set closer to September and the free agents are all gobbled up, it’s not going to necessarily be at the forefront.
With regards to Johnson’s case, I don’t think they need to worry about that situation just yet (there’s a good chance their back end will look a bit different next June than it does now) but let’s dive into it. They can ask him to waive it to allow him to be left unprotected. That happened several times with the Vegas draft and that’s how Marc-Andre Fleury got to the Golden Knights even though he had a no-move clause in his deal. A buyout would also be a possibility and would result in a $2MM cap charge (and payment) for four seasons presuming the move came in 2021. Is that worth guaranteeing a protection spot for someone else? Perhaps. Given who needs new deals that summer to begin with, it’s an option that is going to be considered regardless of expansion and would be weighed against the potential for paying down the contract in a trade.
Other players that could be in that type of situation (bad contract needing protection) include Milan Lucic, Bobby Ryan, Brandon Dubinsky, Brent Seabrook, and Marc Staal. Those are all among the 60 players with no-move clauses at that time. But with another summer spending spree on the horizon, that list will undoubtedly grow between now and then.
@SnoopMinnis: Chances Oilers trade Puljujarvi at the deadline? Him and a draft pick for Spencer Knight seems like it makes sense for both teams. Panthers replace Hoffman or Dadonov next year with Jesse, they got BOB for 6yrs more, so Oil get future number 1 SG.
I’d peg the odds of Edmonton trading Puljujarvi as pretty low. Yes, the restricted free agent is having a nice season in the SM-liiga but I don’t think he has really increased his trade value there. If what teams were willing to pay for him months ago wasn’t enough then, it probably isn’t enough now unless the deal is of the minor variety. In terms of standalone value, the best case scenario for Edmonton would be a second-round pick and that typically doesn’t get you more than a rental player on deadline day. Is that enough to entice Ken Holland to move him? Probably not.
As for the trade proposal, unless that draft pick is a lottery selection, I don’t think Florida would be interested. One of the worst kept secrets in hockey last year was their expected pursuit of Sergei Bobrovsky so their selection of Knight was made with that in mind. The timeline works in terms of a transition. Knight should spend three years at Boston College, plus a year or two as the starter in the minors to get more reps in. By the time he gets to the NHL, Bobrovsky will be more of a platoon option by then anyway. Knight isn’t a luxury in that sense. He’s the successor for the Panthers’ high-priced netminder and it doesn’t make much sense for them to deal him for a draft pick and a player that has struggled at the NHL level so far.
I also wouldn’t put Puljujarvi as a capable replacement for one of Mike Hoffman or Evgenii Dadonov. Florida certainly won’t be able to re-sign both of them but there is a substantial drop-off between one of them and Puljujarvi, a player who had a lot of chances in a top-six role with Edmonton and couldn’t produce. Whoever winds up with Puljujarvi (and at this point, re-signing with the Oilers is probably the best option for him even if he doesn’t want to go back), is going to be looking at him as more of a depth piece with the hopes that he can out-produce those expectations, not a top-six option that’s going to be counted on for 20 goals when he didn’t score that many over parts of three seasons in Edmonton.
mydadleftme: Do you think the Flyers can move anyone, or at least accomplish bad contract swaps. Lots of things suggest Gostisbehere would be traded but I cannot imagine moving that contract would be that easy.
I don’t expect a whole lot from Philadelphia between now and the trade deadline. They’d like to add but with only a couple million in full-season cap room, that doesn’t allow for much more than a depth acquisition unless the other team is retaining close to the maximum 50%. Nolan Patrick appears to be getting closer to a return as well so that should be a bit of an upgrade in itself once he’s up to speed.
I don’t think Shayne Gostisbehere gets moved but my reasoning is different than yours. His knee is still bothering him after surgery and that’s going to give interested teams some pause. With the potential that a knee injury has to affect his mobility, teams are going to want to see him in action and get some conclusive evidence as to how the surgery affects his game. They’re not going to get that between now and February 24th.
His contract (which has three years left at $4.5MM after this one) doesn’t seem all that bad to me. Yes, he’s two years removed from his 65-point season but he doesn’t need to produce at that level to justify that price tag. A year ago, he had 37 points which is a decent return on that deal. Looking at it that way, this is his only real down season. That shouldn’t be enough to scare teams away entirely on its own. If Gostisbehere can return this year and show that there are no ill effects from the surgery, there’s a move to be made but it will have to wait until the offseason at the earliest.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
PHR Originals: 2/3/20 – 2/9/20
Here is a rundown of the original content over the past week at PHR:
Impact centers are always in high demand but there aren’t many prominent ones available, especially compared to recent years. That should bode well for the Senators when it comes to Jean-Gabriel Pageau. I took a look at his situation and while he’s in the midst of a career year which bodes well for his free agent case, that still may not be enough to pry a guaranteed first-round pick from a contender. A contract extension can’t entirely be ruled out either as Ottawa does have some interest in keeping him around.
We wrapped up our tour of the Pacific Division in our deadline primers as Gavin examined the situation in Vegas as the Golden Knights are once again looking to buy in their third season of existence. Our focus has shifted to the Atlantic Division as Gavin previewed Detroit and Florida while Holger did the same for Montreal and Ottawa. The Red Wings and Senators will certainly be sellers as they sit in the basement of the division. The Canadiens are likely to sell unless their recent hot streak continues while the Panthers are likely to try to add to their roster but could also move one of their prominent pending unrestricted free agents as well over risking losing them for nothing.
Tyler Toffoli is no stranger to trade speculation as for a time last season, it looked like he’d be on the move. The Kings ultimately held onto him but as they sit at the bottom of the Western Conference, the pending unrestricted free agent is quite likely to be on the move. I assessed the long list of potential suitors for his services as he’ll be one of the top offensive players dealt between now and February 24th.
Gavin held his weekly Thursday chat. Topics included Kyle Palmieri’s future with New Jersey, what an extension for Jake Muzzin could cost, some surprise players to watch for in trade speculation, Dustin Byfuglien’s situation in Winnipeg, possible defensemen for Vegas, and much more.
Defensive depth is one of the most sought after commodities at every trade deadline. Some teams will be looking to upgrade their third pairings while others will be seeking some injury insurance. Ottawa blueliner Ron Hainsey falls in the first category as a capable veteran that can still log upwards of 20 minutes a night. I profiled which teams could be in the market for the 38-year-old if the Sens don’t sign him to an extension first.
PHR Originals: 1/27/20 – 2/2/20
Here is a rundown of the original content at PHR over the past seven days.
The Central Division features a pair of teams whose fortunes are certainly in the air. The Predators came into the season viewed as a likely contender and now the question is simply whether or not they’re merely going to make the playoffs; a small majority of the predictions so far have them missing out. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks are close enough where it could be justified for them to buy, sell, or stand pat. So far, our readers believe they should be selling but there is still time to vote.
Speaking of Nashville, Mikael Granlund was expected to be a key addition when they picked him up at the 2019 trade deadline from Minnesota. However, things have not worked out well and between that and their situation in the standings, there’s a good chance that he could be on the move between now and the 24th. I took a closer look at his situation including some potential suitors although, with a $5.75MM price tag, cap constraints could potentially come into play.
We’re tackling our deadline primers in a couple of divisions. We continued our tour around the Pacific Division as Gavin assessed the situation in Los Angeles while Holger did the same for San Jose and Vancouver. The three teams are in very different situations – the Kings are sellers in the middle of a rebuild, the Sharks are sellers but are hoping to be back in the hunt next season, and the Canucks will be looking to add. Meanwhile, Gavin also previewed how things are looking in Boston and Buffalo. The Bruins are known to be looking for some help on the wing while the Sabres, while out of contention at the moment, are still seeking forward help but could wind up selling before too long as well.
Zack’s tour around college hockey featured a discussion on some of the prospects that could find their NHL rights being dealt between now and the trade deadline, a look at some recent results, a key injury for Minnesota State, and a big commitment for New Hampshire.
Devils defenseman Sami Vatanen hasn’t generated a lot of trade hype yet but that is likely to change before too long. I examined his situation as it pertains to a potential trade and as he’ll be one of the top blueliners on the move over the next few weeks, he’s certain to garner quite a bit of interest.
PHR Originals: 1/20/20 – 1/26/20
Here is a rundown of the original content over the past seven days here at PHR.
Our Trade Deadline Primers series is underway and we’re starting with the extremely tight Pacific Division where first place and fifth place are only separated by one point. I took a look at the situations in Anaheim, Arizona, and Calgary while Holger did the same for Edmonton. Anaheim is a clear seller between now and February 24th while the other three will certainly be looking to add to try to give themselves a leg up among the logjam in the standings.
Chris Kreider is likely going to be the top rental forward that will garner trade consideration over the next month. Holger assessed his situation which is a bit of a tricky one for the Rangers. While New York may not be a playoff team this season, they’re a team that appears to be on the rise and keeping someone like him around would certainly be ideal. However, with several other players in need of new deals this summer and their current salary cap situation, they’ll be hard-pressed to keep him which will likely result in him being made available.
Speaking of cap space, it generates most of the attention around this time of year but there is another factor that needs to be taken into consideration, contract space. Gavin examined the 50-contract situation for all 31 teams and with several close to the limit, it’s something that’s going to play a role in trade talks in the coming weeks as those teams look to get some wiggle room in that department.
This has been an interesting season for Ilya Kovalchuk. The winger struggled early on with Los Angeles and eventually agreed to a mutual contract termination. It took a few weeks for him to resurface but he eventually joined Montreal and has fared quite well with them, averaging a point per game through his first eight games with the team. All of a sudden, as Holger noted, he has quickly become a trade candidate despite being available for free just weeks ago. With a league minimum salary, even cap-strapped contenders should be able to add him onto their roster so if his performance continues, there could be an intriguing market for his services.
Gavin held his weekly Thursday chat. Topics included trade candidates in Chicago, a fit for Carolina if they want to replace injured blueliner Dougie Hamilton, Mikko Koivu’s future with Minnesota, fair trade value for Jason Zucker, and more.
PHR Originals: 1/13/20 – 1/19/20
Here is a rundown of the original content over the past week here at PHR.
Our Thankful Series came to an end as I took a look at Washington and Winnipeg, a pair of teams with deep offenses. Both teams head towards the trade deadline with somewhat limited manoeuvrability as the Capitals don’t have a lot of salary cap space to work with while the Jets have a lot of uncertainty with the Dustin Byfuglien situation still unresolved and a pending hearing to determine whether or not they were allowed to suspend him without pay.
Detroit’s record has been nothing short of ugly this season. Zach examined just how bad it stacks up with some of the other worst teams in hockey history. While their current points percentage wouldn’t crack the bottom-40 in NHL history, they are on pace to beat 2016-17 Colorado’s lowest point mark which would give them the worst record of the century.
Gavin held his weekly Thursday chat. Topics included the latest coaching change and who might be the next team to make one, what the Rangers should be seeking for goalie Alexandar Georgiev, Braden Holtby’s future in Washington, what Edmonton should try to do to bolster their roster, comparing last year’s top pick to the projected top pick in June, and more.
College hockey is back up and running after most programs had an extended break over the holidays. Zach went over the latest from the NCAA including a Russian defenseman that is quickly rising up the draft board plus a look at some of the top teams in the nation.
In the second half of our mailbag, I tackled questions on several of the trade scenarios for the Rangers, what Arizona could do to bolster their roster, which of Montreal’s top veterans would make sense to move first, needs for the Golden Knights, the upcoming draft, and more.
PHR Mailbag: Rangers, Islanders, Coyotes Offense, Canadiens, Golden Knights, Midseason Surprises, Bruins, Draft Talk
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the looming decisions the Rangers need to make, the Islanders at the trade deadline, Arizona’s offense, Montreal’s top veterans, needs for the Golden Knights, midseason surprises and disappointments, Boston’s continued search for a top-six winger, and some draft talk. If your question doesn’t appear here, look for it in last week’s edition.
acarneglia: How do the Rangers resolve Kreider’s pending free agency, Lias Andersson’s request out, and their situation in goal?
CoachWall: With the Rangers promoting Igor Shesterkin, could they be seriously considering trading Georgy? They need to get a good return to make that deal.
@hawkeyguy: Are the Leafs and Rangers really linked in trade talks?
Chris Kreider is someone that the Rangers don’t appear to be all that interested in talking about an extension with, at least according to recent reports. They’ve made teams aware that they’re willing to retain on his contract to facilitate a trade and there haven’t been any discussions about a deal beyond this season. That can certainly change at any time and I’m sure GM Jeff Gorton will eventually get a sense for what a new deal will cost. But at this point, it’s looking like a trade is a lot likelier than not and will happen relatively soon (by the trade deadline).
I don’t expect Andersson’s situation to be resolved as quickly. The fact that he walked out doesn’t help. Some of the almost cryptic comments he made back home doesn’t help. He wasn’t playing all that well in Hartford and isn’t playing at all now. You guessed it – that doesn’t help either. If they were to move Andersson now, they’d be doing so at a considerable loss and at the same time, setting a precedent that they probably don’t want to do (if you want out, walk out and we’ll trade you). This one should drag out into the summer where they’ll likely take a run at trying to get him to try again with New York before acquiescing if he still wants out.
I’m still of the opinion that they don’t have to trade a goalie. Yes, a three-goalie situation is far from ideal but there is a defined end date when Henrik Lundqvist’s contract is up following 2020-21. If they can make it that long, Shesterkin and Alexandar Georgiev is a quality tandem to work with.
If they do decide to make a deal, it seems that Georgiev will be the odd man out and Toronto is among the many teams that have kicked the tires. The big question is going to be whether or not there’s a team that sees him as a number one down the road. If so, they should be able to land a good enough player to justify moving him. But if he’s viewed as a platoon option, they’re not going to get the impact young player they’re seeking so waiting for the offseason would make some sense. I liken his situation to that of Cam Talbot’s when he was in New York and that one took until the summer to sort out.
nk: Lou Lamoriello is known for being the wise GM and aggressive when need be but it is getting evident that he knows the AHL Sound Tigers affiliate is not ripe with forward talent and with the Pelech injury does not want to deal D out of the system. Knowing this, with the major offensive struggles the Isles have had recently do you see him making a trade or will he be content to ride the wave with his current cast and just wait until the summer to try and get the offensive help needed when certain salaries come off the books?
I expect the Islanders to still try to add an offensive upgrade or two. This is a team that showed that when they can score at even a reasonable clip, they can be dangerous. They’ve largely struggled in that department over the last couple of weeks (aside from popping eight on Detroit earlier in the week) and that has dropped them back to third in the division and only a few points ahead of a Wild Card spot. Reinforcements are going to be needed and Lamoriello knows that.
The injury to Adam Pelech makes it a bit tougher to deal from their defense but they can still dangle some prospects or draft picks to try to add some pieces. While they don’t have any extra picks, they also have their full complement of selections at their disposal and while some of the Bridgeport forwards aren’t likely ready to contribute at the NHL level yet, they would still attract some interest from other teams. Someone like Otto Koivula comes to mind – he hasn’t looked great in NHL duty yet but at 21 and another year left on his deal, there will be teams intrigued by his size and offensive output in the minors.
Vin Scully: Will the Yotes do anything else to shore up their offense?
Short of a depth move, I don’t see them doing much else of consequence up front. When you add Phil Kessel and Taylor Hall and the needle doesn’t move much, that suggests that the limited offense is more systemic than talent-based. Their system is working pretty well for them (they’re tied for first in the Pacific despite some injured goalies as of late) so they’re not going to change that so why make another big swing when you have a reasonable idea that it won’t have that much of an impact?
Part of the reason I don’t see them doing much more is that their trade chips are limited. They’re down first and third-round picks this season. Their top three picks are essentially encumbered from the Hall trade while we wait to see which provision(s) take place. That basically takes them out of the running for any top talent right there.
I actually think Arizona may look to add a defenseman even though their unit is pretty deep. Jordan Oesterle, Ilya Lyubushkin, and the recently-recalled Kyle Capobianco are all depth options and finding an upgrade for a reasonable cost (a mid-round pick or similar prospect) is doable while fitting in the range of assets that they’re likely willing to part with.
Mark Black: What would a Carey Price or Shea Weber trade look like for Montreal? From a salary/long term strategy standpoint, who would be better to trade?
In terms of what it would look like, the return would be completely theoretical as GM Marc Bergevin is going out of his way to try to quash any notion of them getting traded so let’s focus on the second part of the question.
From a long-term standpoint, I would move Price first. The contract was pricey to begin with and now with the marketplace shifting towards preferring starters playing less, it’s not going to get any better. Price’s reputation is still relatively strong even if his numbers aren’t so there may be some teams out there that think behind a better defense, he could get back to his top form. There would need to be a fair bit of money offset though, either by retention (something I don’t think Montreal would do anytime soon) or by taking some higher-priced players back.
As for Weber, there will come a time where he can’t log 25 minutes a night but right now, he’s still playing quite well and with the Canadiens unwilling to go into a larger-scale rebuild, it’s hard to see them wanting to move him. There would be several interested teams if they were open to dealing him though. Once his salary really starts to drop off (to $3MM in 2022-23, $1MM for three seasons starting in 2023-24), he could move to a team looking to get to the cap floor but by then, he’s probably more of a second pairing option at best and the return would be low. The 2022-23 season is the first that Montreal would be out of salary recapture risk as well (though their potential exposure is a lot lower than Nashville’s).
I think the fall off risk is higher with Weber but they can get out of that deal easier down the road based on its structure so from a strategic standpoint, moving Price is probably the better way to go but neither will happen anytime soon.
WalterNYR: Vegas is obviously a Cup contender, but what kind of move can they make to put themselves in the best position possible?
Evidently, they saw a coaching change as something that would help put them in the best position possible which is something I certainly didn’t see coming. Time will tell if that helps or hurts their chances. It will likely delay any movement though as GM Kelly McCrimmon will want to see if Peter DeBoer can help cure what ails them, particularly on the back end.
That’s the position I think they should be trying to upgrade at and by all accounts, they’ve been trying to do just that for a while now. They have plenty of firepower up front but their back end is still largely patched together with depth options playing more minutes than they should. A legitimate top-four defender could be the final piece of the puzzle. However, with minimal cap space, they’ll have to unload some contracts the other and potentially get the other team to retain. Are they open to dealing another first-round pick or will they be trying to deal from their surplus of second-rounders (five over the next two drafts) instead? That will determine what tier of blueliner that they can ultimately get.
PHR Mailbag: Sabres, Hynes, Canadiens, Palmieri, Red Wings, Recall Rules, Avalanche
Topics in this edition of the mailbag include Buffalo’s struggles, Nashville’s coaching change, what’s next in Montreal, Kyle Palmieri’s future in New Jersey, who Detroit shouldn’t be trying to move, recall rules, and Colorado’s sluggish start after the holiday break. If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next week’s mailbag.
Dukes45: Fans clamoring for anything positive in Buffalo and hearing Botterill actively seeking trades. Anything, please, anything? How warm is seat getting under Botterill?
sabres3277: Do you think the Sabres have any chance at the playoffs?? If not, who should they deal at the deadline to get ready for next year once again???
There doesn’t seem to be much to report on the trade front for Buffalo, at least for now. Even after trading Marco Scandella for Montreal in what was essentially a three-way deal that saw them land Michael Frolik, they still have a surplus of defenders and a need for forwards. In the immediate term, that’s still something Botterill is looking to do.
The challenge here is that Bogosian doesn’t have a lot of suitors and there aren’t a lot of similar forwards on expiring contracts that have a similar level of trade value. The pricier rentals up front (Chris Kreider, Tyler Toffoli, even Mikael Granlund potentially) happen to be some of the better trade chips out there and as a result, the asking price is going to be a lot higher than Bogosian and given their current situation, that’s not a justifiable price to pay. For me, Colin Miller is the better trade chip among their right-shot options. They’d be selling low but should still be able to get back close to what they got for him if not a similarly-valued forward.
As for their playoff hopes, they’re better than they were a few weeks ago with Montreal falling out of it. However, I don’t think they’re cracking the top three in the division and I like Florida’s chances of staying ahead of them. I also don’t expect the Atlantic to get both Wild Card spots. So while their chances are better, they’re still not good. Selling makes sense.
Those two defensemen should be considered as trade chips and I’d put Jake McCabe (one of the few lefties on the team) there as well. Is he part of the long-term future? If not, his value may be at its best now. I don’t think there’s a great market for Evan Rodrigues or Jimmy Vesey gave their performances but taking what they can get isn’t a bad idea. I think Zemgus Girgensons would be someone that would generate a fair bit of interest from teams looking to add center depth and/or size to their bottom six. There aren’t any Grade A trade chips but they could land a handful of later draft picks at the very least.
Let’s go back to the first question and look at Botterill’s future. It’s certainly reasonable to suspect that he could be in jeopardy if they ultimately miss the playoffs again. He didn’t fare well in his big trade of Ryan O’Reilly nor does the Jeff Skinner contract look good. He’s already on his second head coach. Most of the time, there are only so many big moves that can be made without achieving the desired results before ownership changes the ones making the moves. Botterill seems to be getting pretty close to that (though I do think they have the right coach in place now).
pitmanrich: What does Nashville see in John Hynes? Done little in NJ apart from one season when Taylor Hall was outstanding. I understand Nashville wanting a different voice behind the bench but it seems like an odd move.
Part of the change is simply to get that different type of coach behind the bench. Peter Laviolette was a strict systems coach and Hynes isn’t as much of one. Laviolette is stricter, Hynes is a bit more of a players’ coach. Of the recent coaching changes, a lot have been towards getting rid of the former and bringing in the latter. Of the coaches that were let go this season, only Hynes really qualifies in that more progressive category.
GM David Poile also is one who rarely likes to make coaching changes so I think the fact that he was able to hire someone with experience who’s only 44 also was appealing.
Hynes’ tenure with New Jersey wasn’t the greatest but at the same time, he didn’t exactly have the most talented of teams at his disposal and their goalie went from being a franchise piece to someone that’s toiling in the minors. It’s hard to pin all of that on Hynes. He had a good track record of development with AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton which certainly came into play as well.
This hire surprised me a bit as well but Poile is choosing what he thinks will be the best long-term solution over bringing in someone who might be able to get a short-term boost before the voice and system goes stale. Time will tell if it’s the right call.
goosr: Is this the year Marc Bergevin finally make a good trade instead of 4th liners or washed up players?
While Bergevin has certainly made his fair share of depth acquisitions, he also has traded for Shea Weber, Max Domi, Tomas Tatar, and Jonathan Drouin since the 2016 offseason. That’s a fair bit of changeover in the core and some of those deals have worked out better than originally expected. With Montreal rapidly dropping in the standings, it seems unlikely that they’ll turn around and acquire a big-name player as that addition alone probably wouldn’t change their fortunes enough to make a difference. With their pending UFAs being basically depth players, expect to see some more small moves in the coming weeks.
wu tang killa beez: With the Habs already out of a playoff spot in early January, is Bergevin gonna be fired if they miss the playoffs once again this year? I do not see them getting back into the playoff portrait will all the injuries and they should be sellers at the deadline (Petry, Tatar?)
I don’t think a GM change is coming if they’re not in a playoff spot this season. There has been a fundamental change in philosophy towards more of a slow-scale build over the past couple of years, one that places a bigger emphasis on drafting and development. Getting ownership to agree to that likely bought him some extra time.
For a while, it appeared as if the 2021 offseason was going to be the big change in direction as the Canadiens have been structuring their contracts so that a lot are ending at the same time. That was the point where they’d choose which core pieces would be staying and which would be going. Jeff Petry and Tomas Tatar are among that group which certainly has them in the mix to move if Bergevin decides to take a bigger step back now. Petry would have the better value, especially since Tatar failed as a rental with Vegas back in 2018 which could make some teams hesitant to bring him in. Knowing that they’re hosting the draft, I think their bigger moves will wait until then unless a team wants to pay a significant price to get a second playoff run out of a player.
DVail1979: As a Devils fan and a big fan of Kyle Palmieri … how much longer can I expect him to be in New Jersey … if he’s dealt where can I expect him to go and what kind of return might I see?
Palmieri has another year on his deal left at this one at $4.65MM so I don’t expect his name to come up too much in trade talks this season. They’re going to want to take a run at extending him and that’s going to have to wait until the summer until the window to do so opens up.
Unlike Taylor Hall, I think there’s a pretty good chance Palmieri sticks around. He’s not going to be someone that commands top dollar on the open market as 50-55 point players aren’t landing rich contracts. He’ll also be 30 by then. If the Devils went to him with a six-year offer around a $6.5MM-$7MM AAV, that might be enough to keep him around without breaking the bank or messing up their cap structure.
If they were to move him over the next few weeks, a first-round pick would be all but a given. A B-level prospect and a lower-level one or comparable draft pick would likely be in there as well as they’d want to be compensated for the extra year that he’s under contract. Then there would be a mid-priced contract coming back or New Jersey would be retaining part of Palmieri’s deal as a lot of buyers are tight to the Upper Limit. But I wouldn’t count on that happening though. I think he’ll stick around.
tigers22: With the Red Wings this bad wouldn’t it be something to look at by trading Larkin, Mantha, and AA for as many prospects and picks they can?
It all depends on how long you want the rebuild to be. If GM Steve Yzerman commits to dealing Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha in particular, he’s likely extending what is already becoming a relatively long rebuilding process. Larkin has three years left on his deal after this one and is their franchise player. If things are going well by the end of that contract, it’s certainly reasonable to think he’d want to stay.
In Mantha’s case, he’s a restricted free agent this summer with arbitration rights. If he signals that he wants to go year-to-year to get to the open market, then trading him makes more sense. Until that happens though, they should be planning for him to be part of the veteran core down the road.
Andreas Athanasiou’s case is different. He’s not having a good year and isn’t quite at the same level that the other two are. It’s far from a given that he’s a part of their future plans so in that sense, a trade makes sense. However, with just five goals and a -35 rating, offers aren’t going to be great. Do you sell low now or hope he improves down the stretch and boosts his trade value? It’s not an easy call either way.
Teams that blow it all up and go all in on youth tend to struggle without a capable veteran supporting cast. Yzerman’s smart enough to realize that he’ll need some productive veterans to help shoulder the load. They have that in Larkin and Mantha so unless a team wants to overpay significantly in terms of assets, they’re better off keeping those two around.
Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag
The holiday season is over and the NHL is right back to the grind. Some teams are just counting the days until the draft lottery, while others are making travel plans for the playoffs. Several, including many that are still on the postseason bubble, will have to take a hard look at their roster over the next few weeks to decide whether to add or subtract at the trade deadline.
With that in mind, it’s time to run our first mailbag of 2020. You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. Make sure you get your questions in early and we’ll try to get through as many as possible when the mailbag runs on the weekend.
If you missed our last edition before the Christmas break, it was split into two parts (here and here). In the first, Brian tackled questions regarding Robin Lehner‘s future in Chicago, Detroit’s tank-a-thon season, and some New York trade targets. In the second, Alex Pietrangelo was a subject of conversation, along with predictions on how the Metropolitan Division will shake out when all is said and done.