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Free Agent Focus: Colorado Avalanche

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With free agency now just a few weeks away, many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  While their top performers may still be locked up, Colorado has a ton of work to do on their depth pieces.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Valeri Nichushkin – After a season that saw him score exactly zero goals in 57 games following several years in the KHL, it looked like Nichushkin’s NHL career might be over after the 2018-19 campaign ended. He was bought out by the Dallas Stars in June and could have easily decided to go back to Russia and continue his career there. Not so fast, said the Avalanche, who signed Nichushkin to a one-year, $850K deal that gave him another chance in the NHL. After scoring 13 goals and 27 points in 65 games while being one of the best defensive wingers in the entire league—he finished eighth in Selke Trophy voting—the 25-year-old Russian has probably earned himself a multi-year extension with Colorado.

F Andre Burakovsky – Quick, after Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, who was the leading scorer on the Avalanche this season? Gabriel Landeskog? Mikko Rantanen? Nazem Kadri? No, it was Burakovsky, whose 45 points were a career-high despite the shortened season. In just 58 games he scored 20 goals for the first time in his career, finally getting the opportunity to play big minutes and rewarding the Avalanche by fulfilling the huge potential he had shown as a young player. Importantly, Burakovsky has already played six full seasons in the NHL despite being just 25, meaning he could become an unrestricted free agent next offseason. Waiting for a one-year arbitration award would get him there, meaning the Avalanche will have to try and work out a multi-year deal in the coming weeks if they want to lock him up.

D Nikita Zadorov – For all the frustration at the fact that Zadorov still hasn’t grown into that minute-munching two-way star that fans have been dreaming off since he came into the league as a teenager, he has already logged nearly 400 games in his NHL career and only turned 25 a few months ago. He’ll never be the leader of the Colorado blueline, but he still represents a valuable asset that they’ll have to make a decision on this summer. Like Burakovsky, Zadorov already has six NHL seasons under his belt and could use an arbitration award to get to unrestricted free agency at 26 next offseason. Unlike Burakovsky, the Avalanche might be okay with that outcome given the pipeline of defensemen they’ve created over the last few years.

Other RFAs: F Tyson Jost, F Vladislav Kamenev, D Ryan Graves, F A.J. Greer, F Sheldon Dries, G Hunter Miska

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Colin Wilson – When the 2018-19 season came to an end, the Avalanche decided that Wilson was worthy of a $2.6MM contract. They waited until July 1 to do it, but they obviously felt it was acceptable after his 12-goal, 27-point campaign. He was an option on the powerplay and a depth piece for a team that looked like they were gearing up for a real Stanley Cup run. Unfortunately, that $2.6MM resulted in just four points and nine games. Wilson suffered a (somewhat mysterious) injury in October and never returned, opening the door for other players to take his opportunities. If he’s healthy, perhaps the Avalanche bring him back. But with so much firepower ahead of him on the depth chart, it might be wise for Wilson to go somewhere else to build his value back up.

F Vladislav Namestnikov – If a trade deadline pickup ends up playing just nine regular season games for your team, it usually means the transaction was a mistake. Not so with Namestnikov, who scored four goals for the Avalanche before the shutdown and then added another four in their 12-game postseason. You can bet the team is wondering what kind of a resurgence they could milk out of the 27-year-old Russian forward, given he has shown an ability to score in bunches, but there simply might not be enough to go around. If the team is set on bringing back all of their restricted free agents, Namestnikov may be better served looking for a free agent landing spot.

F Matt Nieto – What can you say about Nieto? A few years ago he was lining up beside some of the very best players on the Colorado roster, but even after being dropped out of that group has still performed relatively well. 21 points in 70 games are nothing to sneeze at, especially when it comes in just over 11 minutes of even-strength ice time a night. Nieto was Colorado’s top penalty-killing forward this season and will be missed if the team is forced to let him reach free agency. There’s not always enough money to go around, especially if Nieto’s versatility and consistency end up drawing a crowd when the market opens.

Other UFAs: D Kevin Connauton, G Michael Hutchinson, F Jayson Megna, D Mark Alt, G Antoine Bibeau

Projected Cap Space

The $22.4MM in cap space Colorado has this offseason is a testament to the way GM Joe Sakic has built his squad, but it doesn’t mean they can take endless shots at high-priced free agents. The team has to consider their own core first, with Makar and Landeskog both heading into their final season under contract. MacKinnon will be up two years after that, with Kadri due for a new deal in the middle. No, they’re not in cap trouble, but they could be if they lean in and spend all of their room this offseason trying to chase a Stanley Cup right away.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason Keys: St. Louis Blues

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As teams are eliminated from the playoffs, it means that the offseason has arrived for several more squads.  Having covered the teams that weren’t a part of the NHL’s return and the ones ousted in the Qualifying Round, we shift our focus to the ones that were eliminated in the official first round.  Next up is a look at St. Louis.

During the regular season, it looked like the Blues were in good shape to repeat their Stanley Cup title as they were first in the Western Conference (second in the whole league) before the pandemic hit.  However, they scuffled during the seeding games and wound up facing off against Vancouver who upset them in seven games with Jordan Binnington having a rough showing in the postseason.  Most of their team is already signed for next season but there are still a few things that GM Doug Armstrong needs to accomplish.

Clear Out Contracts

St. Louis was a team that was hit hard by the pandemic causing the salary cap to flatten out.  All of a sudden, instead of either trying to add to their roster or at least keep it intact, they’ve already had to move out one veteran on the cheap after sending Jake Allen to Montreal for a relatively low return of a third-round pick.  In doing so, they’ve handed the keys between the pipes to Binnington and will quite likely have a rookie as his backup in Ville Husso who is 25 and has yet to play in an NHL game.  That was the easy move as Allen did well enough this season to at least have some positive value.  The other cost-cutting moves may be a bit more challenging.

At the top of this list has to be Alex Steen.  He has been with the team for 12 years and has been productive for about 10 of those.  The last two are the ones where he hasn’t been.  Instead, his role has diminished considerably and for a $5.75MM price tag, that’s not good.  It’s difficult to part with someone that has been around that long and is as well-respected as he is (and optically, paying him to not play via a buyout or trading an incentive to get out of the contract stings) but it’s a move they’re going to have to make if they want some flexibility this offseason.

Tyler Bozak is another pricey player on an expiring contract that isn’t providing full value.  He’s still capable of winning faceoffs and providing some offense and with the center market being limited in free agency, they should have some interest in him but it will still likely require an inducement of sorts to get out of his $5MM price tag.  Until they find a taker for him or Steen, they’re going to be quite limited in what they can try to do in the coming months.

Re-Sign Pietrangelo

I know things aren’t looking good on this front right now.  When reports surface that talks have broken off and the team has advised him to hit the open market, it’s hard to be optimistic about a deal getting done.  But finding a way to get a contract in place with their captain still has to be their top priority and is the key to having a successful offseason or not.

They don’t have enough cap space to do so at the moment (more than $76MM in commitments already) so some work needs to be done (such as moving out another contract) but they do have the ability to go over the cap by 10% during the summer so there are ways they can get this done.

Beyond the AAV of the contract, the structure will play a big role in whether or not something can get done.  While the team has shown a willingness to frontload deals, they have avoided handing out signing bonuses in any pact that they’ve made with a player.  That’s a big carrot for players and an unwillingness to offer that to Pietrangelo won’t help their chances of signing him.

Yes, the free agent market is likely to be deflated with the salary cap flattening out at $81.5MM.  Many teams are like the Blues in that they need to free up some money but in spite of that, there will be enough teams with cap room (or the willingness to go over to get Pietrangelo and figure it out after) that it shouldn’t drastically affect what he’ll get.

Pietrangelo has worked his way into being a capable number one defenseman in a league that isn’t exactly loaded with them.  To lose a player like that for nothing would be a huge blow even though they have Justin Faulk that is capable of taking on a bigger role than he had with St. Louis this past season.  Somehow, someway, Armstrong needs to find a way to get something done.

Re-Sign Dunn

While Pietrangelo gets all of the attention, there is another defenseman that needs to be re-signed and that’s Vince Dunn.  After a strong sophomore year offensively, his numbers took a step back as he dipped from 35 points in 78 games to just 23 in 71 while his ice time was the lowest of any of his three NHL seasons.  That doesn’t give him the best case to work with while he’s not eligible for arbitration either.

However, he still has himself in line for a decent raise on his $775K salary from this season.  Even with the lowered offensive numbers, he could triple that amount without too much difficulty.  But as things stand, he’d be looking at a short-term contract to help keep the AAV down.  That could change depending on what happens with Pietrangelo.  If they don’t re-sign him and are able to clear out at least one of their bigger deals, then it may make sense to try to lock Dunn up on a longer-term deal, one that may be a little high in the early going but provide some value on the back end.

Given the dominoes that have to fall one way or the other – Pietrangelo’s fate has to be determined first as well as seeing what other money Armstrong can free up – this is something that shouldn’t be on the front burner.  Without arbitration, this is a contract that should be able to be pushed aside until later this fall but it is something that they will need to accomplish before 2020-21 begins, likely at some point in December.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Focus: Chicago Blackhawks

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With free agency now less than a month away, many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Chicago has several notable young players in need of new deals as well as a long-term veteran who is hoping to stick around a little longer.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Dominik Kubalik – No one really knew what to expect from the 25-year-old entering his first season but even the most optimistic of guesses likely wouldn’t have had Kubalik getting 30 goals or finishing third in Calder Trophy voting.  But that’s exactly what happened even with six forwards averaging more ice time per game than him in the regular season.  He put up front line goal totals with the playing time of a fringe second liner.  Now, both sides have to find a suitable compromise at a time where there aren’t really any good comparable players out there as let’s face it, rookies that come over at his age typically don’t put up 30 goals.  That makes a short-term deal a more palatable scenario and with there being three years until he’s eligible for free agency, it’s the likeliest outcome as well.

F Dylan Strome – Strome’s second season in Chicago wasn’t quite as productive as his first as his output dipped from 51 points in 58 games to 38 in 58.  However, that’s still a 54-point pace over a full schedule which is production equivalent to a second liner which is pretty good considering he was seemingly on the outs in Arizona just two years ago.  Even so, it feels like there is still some uncertainty surrounding his upside.  Is the number three pick in 2015 a core player that should be built around or is he expendable in the right situation?  His production so far with Chicago suggests the former but when the beginning of Strome’s career gets factored in, the decision isn’t so easy.  Suffice it to say, a long-term deal probably isn’t in the cards, especially when he doesn’t have arbitration eligibility.

F Drake Caggiula – With nine goals and six assists in 40 games, Caggiula’s numbers don’t stand out but when you factor in that he averaged less than 12 minutes a night, they look a bit more impressive.  He’s an effective energy winger when healthy but staying in the lineup has been a challenge.  That, coupled with his $1.5MM qualifying offer, presents a tough call for GM Stan Bowman.  There’s no denying that Caggiula is a useful player on their roster but with limited cap room and other notable players ahead of him needing new deals, this could be a case where they non-tender him to look for a cheaper replacement (or to try to get him to take a bit of a pay cut).

Other RFAs: F Alexandre Fortin, D Slater Koekkoek, D Ian McCoshen, G Malcolm Subban, D Joni Tuulola

Key Unrestricted Free Agent

G Corey Crawford – Having moved out Robin Lehner and Erik Gustafsson at the trade deadline, Crawford is the one and only regular NHL player that’s set to hit the open market next month.  His case is a particularly interesting one.  For starters, the Blackhawks are the only organization he has been a part of since they drafted him in the second round back in 2003 and has played in 13 different NHL seasons for them.  Along the way, he became a good starter which helped him pick up a couple of Stanley Cup titles.

But in recent years, he hasn’t been able to stay in the lineup as frequently to the point where Bowman brought in Lehner in free agency just to have another reliable option.  Crawford’s year-to-year performance has varied considerably and he’s coming off of a season where his numbers were decent (2.77 GAA, .917 SV%) but not near the top of the leaderboard either.  Between that and his age (35), it’s hard to see him as the long-term solution.  A multi-year deal may even be tough to do and it seems likely that his next contract will come a bit cheaper than the $6MM AAV that he has played under for the past six years.

Crawford has said that he wants to stay in Chicago but that he also wants to be a starter which is a role he hasn’t really exclusively held for a while.  Can they find their way to a deal to keep him around or will he leave after 17 years with the organization?

Other UFAs: F Joseph Cramarossa, D T.J. Brennan, F Anton Wedin

Projected Cap Space

At the moment, Chicago has a little over $73.5MM in commitments to 17 players, per CapFriendly.  Getting all of their impact players re-signed for the $8MM difference isn’t going to happen so some trimming needs to be done, be it through a buyout, trade, or both.  While Brent Seabrook and Andrew Shaw missed significant portions of the season and didn’t suit up in the bubble, both expect to be ready to start 2020-21 which takes relying on LTIR off the table for now.  Things could change in-season but for the time being, Bowman needs to free up some cap room to keep the core of his team intact.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Focus: Carolina Hurricanes

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With free agency now less than a month away, many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  The Carolina Hurricanes already traded away the rights to one pending free agent but still have some tough decisions to make.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Warren Foegele – The journey to the NHL wasn’t smooth for the 24-year-old Foegele, who actually left the University of New Hampshire in 2015 to return to the OHL and continue his development back at the junior level. A few years later and it’s clear that that was the right decision for him after two full seasons as a member of the Hurricanes. After really making a name for himself in the 2019 playoffs where he nearly registered as many points as his whole regular season, Foegele came back in 2019-20 as an integral part of the Carolina machine.

In 68 games he scored 13 times and put up 30 points despite averaging just over 12 minutes at even-strength and not touching the ice on the powerplay. That level of production won’t land him a huge raise, but it should afford him a little more ice time and a bigger role moving forward. The question will be whether or not they can work out a multi-year contract or if either of the two sides would rather test arbitration.

D Haydn Fleury – It’s easy to forget that Fleury was the seventh-overall pick in 2014, because to this point in his career he frankly hasn’t lived up to that draft billing. Selected ahead of first-round talents like William Nylander, Nikolaj Ehlers, Dylan Larkin, and of course David Pastrnak (whose selection at 25 still haunts most of the league), Fleury has still played just 132 games in the NHL. That said, his talents did start to show themselves down the stretch for the Hurricanes, with the team even giving him a chance to play more than 20 minutes in four of his last five games before the season was canceled.

In the postseason, Fleury’s role with the team was still large enough to think that they will move forward with him as a full-time member of the defense. With Joel Edmundson traded and two other defensemen set to hit unrestricted free agency, there will be minutes to go around. Like Foegele, Fleury is arbitration-eligible but still might not be able to argue for much of a raise given he played just 45 NHL games this season.

Other RFAs: F Steven Lorentz, F Clark Bishop, F Spencer Smallman, F Jacob Pritchard, D Oliwer Kaski, D Roland McKeown, D Gustav Forsling, G Callum Booth

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Justin Williams – Does he come back for a 20th NHL season? It’s not clear at all what Williams’ plans are, but last time it took him until January to officially return to the league and it just so happens that that is when the next season is expected to start. Maybe the next few months will be enough time off for the veteran forward to get the itch again and if Carolina is willing, it seems like the only destination. Williams signed for just $700K (plus performance bonuses) this season and would likely do the same if he returns.

D Sami Vatanen – The bigger question is trade deadline acquisition Vatanen, who actually may have never suited up for Carolina had the playoffs not been delayed. The 29-year-old was injured when the Hurricanes acquired him at the deadline and tweaked it again meaning he never did actually play a regular season game for the team. That didn’t stop head coach Rod Brind’Amour from using Vatanen a lot in the playoffs, but even that postseason performance seems unlikely to land him a new contract with the Hurricanes this offseason.

Carolina already has five defensemen locked up for at least $4MM per season, a number that Vatanen will likely be trying to eclipse on a multi-year deal in free agency. He’s coming off a four-year contract that carried a $4.875MM AAV, and though the flat cap situation may squeeze middle-tier free agents like Vatanen, it’s hard to see how the Hurricanes could really justify bringing him back without a trade of someone else.

Other UFAs: D Trevor van Riemsdyk, F Max McCormick, F Brian Gibbons, G Anton Forsberg

Projected Cap Space

Hard to justify because the Hurricanes only have about $7.8MM in cap space going into the offseason and have more pressing needs than their third pairing. James Reimer and Petr Mrazek are both heading into their final seasons under contract and the Hurricanes have been included in plenty of goaltending speculation. There is also a new deal just around the corner with budding superstar Andrei Svechnikov, who will be a restricted free agent for the first time in 2021.

Promoting youngsters like Jake Bean can provide some more flexibility because of their inexpensive entry-level contracts, but the Hurricanes may end up more involved in the trade market than free agency given their current situation.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Focus: Buffalo Sabres

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With free agency now less than a month away, many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  New Buffalo GM Kevyn Adams will certainly have his work cut out for him as more than half of their players are in need of new contracts in the coming weeks.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Sam Reinhart – Two years ago, the Sabres elected for a bridge contract to see if Reinhart had another gear in him.  While he hasn’t quite reached a point per game level, he has emerged as a capable and consistent top liner.  He has reached at least 50 points in three straight seasons and had an outside shot at 60 had it not been for the pandemic which will help his arbitration case as will his increase in usage to over 20 minutes a night.  He’s two years away from unrestricted free agency so this is the time where a long-term pact should be the focus for both sides.  There aren’t a lot of core forwards in Buffalo right now beyond Jack Eichel and Jeff Skinner but Reinhart is certainly one of them.

F Victor Olofsson – It was a breakout season for the 25-year-old who went from being predominantly a minor leaguer to one of the top rookie scorers in the league with 22 goals and 20 assists in just 54 games.  His lack of NHL track record makes it difficult to find possible comparables which could make his arbitration case a little more interesting.  Normally, a bridge deal for a player in this situation coming off his entry-level deal would make sense but because he’s an older rookie, a two-year pact would walk him right to unrestricted free agency.  There’s no doubt that Olofsson will get a substantial raise on his salary from this season which was less than $800K but Adams is going to have to decide if he’s ready to commit to a long-term deal or if a one-year contract is the better way to go.

G Linus Ullmark – Ullmark has been Buffalo’s possible goalie of the future for a while but it has yet to materialize into a goalie of the present situation.  Even with Carter Hutton struggling mightily, head coach Ralph Krueger saw fit to platoon the two so Ullmark only played in 34 games and while he has played in five separate NHL seasons, he still doesn’t have 100 games under his belt.  At 27, he’s a year away from UFA eligibility so another one-year contract that kicks the can down the road isn’t an option anymore.  They may not be ready to commit a long-term deal but a two or three-year pact that buys a bit of team control and has a price tag around the $3MM mark might be palatable for both sides; it’d more than double his salary from this season without pricing themselves out of bidding for a starter down the road.

D Brandon Montour – It wasn’t that long ago that Montour appeared to be a part of their long-term plans to the point where Buffalo gave up a first-rounder for him.  However, he struggled a bit under Krueger and his ice time fell as a result.  Add that to the flattened salary cap and there are questions about whether or not they should be tendering him his $3.525MM qualifying offer.  He’s also a year away from UFA eligibility but it’s at least possible that he hits the open market earlier than originally planned.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see him in trade discussions in the coming weeks as a result.

Other RFAs: F Remi Elie, D Brandon Hickey, G Jonas Johansson, F Dominik Kahun, F Curtis Lazar, F Andrew Oglevie, D Matthew Spencer, F Tage Thompson

10.2(c) Players: F Casey Mittelstadt (ineligible for arbitration or an offer sheet)

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Wayne Simmonds – The decision to take a one-year deal came with mixed results for Simmonds.  While he landed more than he would have on a multi-year contract, he didn’t rebound like he or New Jersey had hoped for and didn’t improve upon being moved to Buffalo.  While he’s only 32, he has shown signs of slowing down considerably the last couple of years and should now be looked as more of a depth player than the top-six option he has been for most of his career.  He should still have no difficulty landing a contract this offseason but it will be much cheaper than the $5MM he made this season.

F Jimmy Vesey – Last summer’s trade to the Sabres didn’t kick-start his offense.  Instead, his production took a nosedive as his nine goals and 20 points were both career lows; even had the pandemic not hit, that still likely would have been the case.  So instead of entering the market as a possible second liner, he’s going to have to seek out an opportunity where he can play on an offensive-minded third line and hope to play his way up the lineup.  At 27, there should be a fair bit of interest but the flattened cap may limit his chances of beating his $2.35MM salary from this season.

F Zemgus Girgensons/F Johan Larsson – I’ve lumped these two together as they’ve followed somewhat similar trajectories thus far aside from Girgensons’ voted in All-Star Game appearance.  They even are coming off of near-identical contracts, $1.6MM for Girgensons and $1.55MM for Larsson.  Both have spent seven years in Buffalo and have done well at times defensively but their offensive games haven’t progressed much along the way.  There is a spot on the fourth line either with Buffalo or elsewhere but it may be hard to justify Adams bringing both of them back at a similar price tag but one of them re-signing could certainly happen.

Other UFAs: F Michael Frolik, D John Gilmour, G Andrew Hammond, D Matt Hunwick, F Taylor Leier, D Casey Nelson, F Vladimir Sobotka, F Scott Wilson

Projected Cap Space

With so many players needing new deals, there isn’t much on the books right now; they have about $47MM tied up in 10 players, per CapFriendly.  That gives them plenty of flexibility to work with if ownership is willing to spend to the $81.5MM Upper Limit.  After they re-sign their restricted free agents, they’ll have enough left to be players in free agency in the coming weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag: Jets, Flyers Veterans, Stamkos, Rask, Avalanche, Canucks Free Agents, Officiating

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Winnipeg’s upcoming offseason, underachieving veterans in Philadelphia, Steven Stamkos’ future in Tampa Bay, what’s next for Tuukka Rask, big game shopping for Colorado, Vancouver’s free agents, and the consistent inconsistency of officiating.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s edition.

Dougster: What do you see the Winnipeg Jets doing?

I don’t think they’re going to do a whole lot.  I know that seeing Patrik Laine and Nikolaj Ehlers in trade speculation has some thinking that GM Kevin Cheveldayoff is going to make some big changes to his roster but that goes against his general philosophy.  Since going to Winnipeg, slow and steady has been the mantra with trying to add a key rental when the time is right.  I can’t see that changing and with Laine’s contract expiring next offseason, they’re probably going to try to limit their multi-year commitments.

So with that in mind, I think their top priority will be trying to add some center insurance.  Bryan Little’s future is murky at best and while Blake Wheeler can shift to the middle, doing so takes him off their top line.  Andrew Copp and Adam Lowry have shown flashes of being ready for a bigger role but they’d feel a lot better with someone more proven in there.  A rental player makes a lot of sense here and I wouldn’t be surprised if they inquired about Paul Stastny.  He’s familiar with Winnipeg’s system and had some success there before while Vegas will likely need to clear money if they extend Robin Lehner.  If they add a veteran and Little is able to play after all, too much center depth is a ‘problem’ that every team would like to have.

If they’re going to add anyone on a multi-year deal, it’s probably on the back end.  While Neal Pionk had a strong first season, he was effectively the only impact replacement for Jacob Trouba, Ben Chiarot, Tyler Myers, and Dustin Byfuglien.  The Jets patched things together this season but some more stability there would go a long way.

Beyond that, I think they’ll try to clear Mathieu Perreault’s deal (perhaps as salary ballast in a trade for one of the above elements) but with many other teams wanting to clear money, that’s far from a guarantee.  They’ll need to sign a new backup goalie (there are plenty of pure backups available in free agency) and fill out the bottom of their forward group.  I think they can do that without taking a core player away and that’s how Cheveldayoff will likely try to play it.

ripaceventura30: What is a realistic return for Shayne Gostisbehere and who might be interested in turning his career back around? Is JVR a buyout candidate or do the Flyers hang onto him for one more year and hope he gets back to his scoring ways/gets dangled as an expansion draft piece?

Gostisbehere’s case is a tough one.  Moving a high-priced player in this current marketplace is going to be tricky.  Moving a high-priced player (Gostisbehere has a $4.5MM AAV) with three years left on his deal that couldn’t crack their regular lineup down the stretch and in the playoffs is going to be much tougher.  There is definitely offensive upside and his mobility is a plus as more teams look to have their defenders join the rush so this isn’t a situation where no one would want him.  But the return Chuck Fletcher would probably have to settle for would be underwhelming.  A second-round pick and a depth defender (to offset some salary) would be my guess at a best-case scenario and their cap situation is going to make it difficult to try to hold onto him in the hopes that he rebuilds his value next season.  I could see New Jersey and Detroit being among the teams with interest, ones with vacancies on the back end and enough cap room to take on what’s currently a bad contract without too much concern.

I don’t see Philadelphia buying out James van Riemsdyk.  He hasn’t lived up to his contract but he still has 46 goals over his two seasons which isn’t terrible by any stretch either.  A buyout would cost them over $2.77MM for two seasons, then over $4.77MM in 2022-23 before dropping to $1.778MM for three years after that.  Can they sign a 25-goal winger for the difference between his buyout cost and his $7MM cap hit?  I know they want to free up some money but that’d be a tough way to do it.  At this point, they either trade him with significant retention or, more likely, hold onto him and hope he rebuilds his value.  If he doesn’t, he’ll be left unprotected next summer.

@warrenchris: Where will Stamkos be playing next year?

It’s well-known that Tampa Bay has to cut some significant salary for next season and whoever they want to move is going to have some form of trade protection.  While players like Alex Killorn, Yanni Gourde, and Tyler Johnson have been the speculative casualties, I suppose it’s possible that they could look at how they’ve performed without Stamkos and try to move him instead.  Anthony Cirelli would step into a bigger role down the middle behind Brayden Point and they’d probably still be contenders.

But from a value standpoint, there probably isn’t a worse time to try to move him.  Moving expensive contracts is going to be tough this offseason given the current landscape and he’s signed at an $8.5MM cap hit for four more years.  The mystery surrounding this injury that has kept him out for the entire postseason doesn’t help either.  Original indications were that he was to have been back by now but he’s not progressing as well as anyone would have hoped.  That’s a major red flag for other teams.  If you’re going to commit to a pricey player, you at least want to know that he’s healthy and that there’s no danger of recurrence down the road.  He’s now skating with the team at least but that’s not the same as game action.

In a situation where they simply have to move some players out, nothing can be ruled out entirely.  But even though they’ve done well without him, it’s hard to imagine Stamkos being anywhere other than Tampa Bay next season.

sovietcanuckistanian: is Rask done in Beantown? Publicly, team/players have come out in support, but you get the feeling there is some angst/animosity from some people partly feeling that he might have bailed. I mean he’s still a top-5 goalie (I think), but his cap hit is a bit high. Do you think he gets moved or do they just run out the Halak/Rask tandem again and let their contracts run out? Thanks in advance.

I wouldn’t be surprised if some in the organization would like to see him moved despite their public proclamations to the contrary but doing so would be trickier than it might seem.  For starters, he has a 15-team no-trade list which takes half of the league out of the equation right there.

Let’s look at Rask’s numbers from the past two seasons.  And I’m not talking about his sterling GAA and SV% from 2019-20 but rather his games played totals.  This season, he played in 41 regular season games before the pandemic hit.  The year before that, he played in 46 contests.  That’s not a lot of appearances for a starting goalie, especially one that has a $7MM price tag.  The tandem works for Boston with Jaroslav Halak because he’s someone that’s considered an above-average backup.  Not many other teams with a potential vacancy between the pipes are in that situation and of those, how many have $7MM to spend?  2020-21 feels like it’s going to have a lot of back-to-backs with the NHL wanting to play 82 games even with a delayed start so I don’t think there would be a huge market for his services.

Let’s look at the other side for a minute.  Who would replace Rask?  It’s not as if there are a lot of starters available in free agency nor are there legitimate number ones available on the trade market.  They could flip Rask for Marc-Andre Fleury to change things up for the sake of change but I don’t think that makes them a better team and they’re in win-now mode.  Unless they can land a legitimate starter that’s going to be around for a few years (such as Jacob Markstrom in free agency), they’re probably best off sticking with a tandem that they know works for them.

Eric Lord: Do you think the Colorado Avalanche will make a run at Alex Pietrangelo? They really struggled defensively against Dallas after Johnson went down in Game One. They have the cap space and he would provide them with an experienced, top pair defenseman that could lead them to a Cup.

In terms of a fit, Pietrangelo to Colorado makes a ton of sense and he’d undoubtedly vault them into contenders.  But while you mention that they have the cap space, it’s only in the short term and that’s going to limit them in this pursuit.

Let’s jump ahead a year to the 2021 offseason.  They currently have $40.45MM in commitments to eight players which is manageable.  But Gabriel Landeskog needs a new deal that will check in considerably higher than his $5.571MM cap hit.  Cale Makar’s contract is up and at this point, you can probably add a zero to the end of his current $880K price tag.  Philipp Grubauer’s deal is up which means they’ll need a starting goalie as well.  Can they afford to do those three things, sign Pietrangelo, and fill out the rest of the roster under a cap that’s probably going to be around the $81.5MM it is now?  I don’t think they can.

If Pietrangelo is willing to sign a one-year deal at an inflated price tag (think more than $10MM) to go to a contender and then go for a long-term contract in 2021, Colorado has a chance.  In that scenario, I’d probably make them the contender for his services.  But that’s a lot of risk on Pietrangelo’s end as an injury could cost him millions.  Even in a deflated cap environment, he should be able to command a max-term, top-dollar contract next month; he’s that talented of a blueliner and those rarely hit the open market.  He’d fit in great with Colorado but I don’t think they can fit him in beyond 2020-21 without taking away another core piece first.

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Offseason Keys: Montreal Canadiens

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As teams are eliminated from the playoffs, it means that the offseason has arrived for several more squads.  Having covered the teams that weren’t a part of the NHL’s return and the ones ousted in the Qualifying Round, we shift our focus to the ones that were eliminated in the official first round.  Next up is a look at Montreal.

The regular season was not a good one for the Canadiens who were sellers at the trade deadline.  However, the expanded postseason format gave them the final spot and they went on to make the most of it, upsetting Pittsburgh in the Qualifying Round before putting up a good showing against Philadelphia before ultimately being eliminated.  GM Marc Bergevin has already started his offseason work with the acquisitions of goaltender Jake Allen and defenseman Joel Edmundson but they still have some things to accomplish over the coming months if they want to get back into playoff contention.

Add Scoring Wingers

With Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi showing some positive signs in their young careers, the Canadiens now have some depth down the middle which gives them an opportunity to try to work on upgrading their scoring on the wings for the first time in a while.  They’re a team that’s built on trying to score by committee but as their series against Philadelphia showed, they don’t have a go-to option when they need a key goal.

Brendan Gallagher has been Montreal’s closest thing to a top goal scorer in recent years.  He had surpassed the 30-goal mark in the past two years and while he didn’t get there this season, he scored at that pace (22 in 59 games).  Tomas Tatar led the team in points during the regular season and was second the year before.  After that, however, it thins out in a hurry; no other winger had more than 16 goals this year.

Jonathan Drouin has underwhelmed for the most part since joining the team from Tampa Bay while Joel Armia, Artturi Lehkonen, and Paul Byron are more known for their play in the defensive end.  One of their better offensive contributions from a winger this season came from Ilya Kovalchuk after his contract was terminated by the Kings but he was also thrust onto the top line quickly which played a role in his brief success.

While they’ve spent a good chunk of their cap space already, Bergevin would be wise to look for another reliable scorer on the wing.  The odds of being able to afford and acquire a front liner are slim but there are some players in free agency who would give them a lift offensively and at least deepen their by-committee approach towards scoring.

Domi Decision

When Montreal acquired Max Domi from Arizona two years ago, he was coming off of a tough year and a bridge deal made some sense.  Since then, he had a breakout 72-point campaign in 2018-19 but had another tough year this season as his output dipped to just 44 points.  While there is still some uncertainty surrounding what type of offensive player he can be, a short-term contract doesn’t make as much sense now that he’s arbitration-eligible and two years away from being eligible for unrestricted free agency unless they do a contract that’s three seasons or longer to buy a bit more team control.

Further complicating things for Bergevin is the presence of Suzuki and Kotkaniemi, their hopeful top two centers of the future.  Committing a long-term deal to Domi if they envision him as a third liner doesn’t make a lot of sense and Phillip Danault (more on him in a bit) is also in the picture as well.  There’s the possibility of moving him to the wing but Domi has made it known that his preference is to remain down the middle.  It’s also worth noting that he has changed agents as well, moving from Pat Brisson to Darren Ferris.

A year ago, it looked like Domi was going to be part of Montreal’s long-term core but now, that’s not as certain.  If their inclination now is that he won’t be, this may be the right time to try to move him even though his output dipped this season.  There are no impact centers available in unrestricted free agency and quite a few teams will be looking to trade for help down the middle so Bergevin should be able to still yield a good return if he wants to go that route.

One way or another, a decision is soon pending for the 25-year-old.  Getting to arbitration is an outcome that they likely will want to avoid because of Domi’s 72-point campaign which means that they’ll have to do something in the near future and choose what their plans are for him.

Extension Talks

There aren’t many teams that have as much cap room for 2021-22 as Montreal does but there’s a reason for that.  They have just three forwards signed for that year with Gallagher, Tatar, Danault, and Armia among those set to become unrestricted free agents.  So will defenseman Jeff Petry.  While this gives them some potential flexibility for Seattle’s expansion draft (it’s unlikely a pending UFA would be protected), having that many core players enter their walk years is certainly risky.

Petry and Gallagher are the likeliest to have early extension talks.  Petry has become a strong number two defender over his time with Montreal and should be in line for a raise on his current $5.5MM price tag.  Gallagher, meanwhile, has been one of the better bargains in the league at $3.75MM while other 30-goal players are getting closer to $6.5MM to $7MM on the open market.  That’s probably the price range that would be needed to get an early extension done.  Tatar’s quiet showing in the playoffs likely hurts his chances of getting a new deal done this offseason.

Then there’s Danault.  He indicated after the season that his role in 2020-21 would play a factor in deciding whether or not to re-sign.  He has been a fixture on Montreal’s top line the last two seasons but with their youngsters potentially ready for more ice time, Danault’s spot on the depth chart is probably going to change.  If they can find a role that he’s comfortable with and the right price point (his cap hit is just under $3.1MM currently), it’s possible that they could get a deal done now which would further put Domi’s future into question.

After Montreal’s elimination, Bergevin indicated that he intended to be careful this offseason knowing that this situation was on the horizon.  Getting one or two of these players signed would go a long way towards giving them some certainty in cap planning even if it winds up hurting them a bit when it comes to who they lose to the Kraken.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Focus: Tampa Bay Lightning

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With free agency now less than a month away, many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Tampa Bay’s players are certainly focused on beginning the Stanley Cup Final on Saturday but management is undoubtedly aware of some of the core players in need of new deals soon after.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Anthony Cirelli – Last season was his first in the NHL and while he played well, he still was a little bit under the radar.  That isn’t the case now.  Despite the pandemic, he set a new career best with 44 points in 69 games while establishing himself as one of the top two-way centers in the league.  Writers around the NHL certainly noticed as he finished fourth in Selke Trophy voting.  So far in the playoffs, his production has tapered off a bit but he has logged more than 20 minutes a night while playing in a checking role.  Cirelli isn’t arbitration-eligible but there will be teams that view him as a second liner and if that’s the case, he could be a candidate for an offer sheet (especially with the Lightning’s cap situation).

D Mikhail Sergachev – The 22-year-old hasn’t had that big leap offensively since he picked up 40 points in his rookie season; he hasn’t reached that mark since.  However, he has gone from being a player who had to be sheltered on the third pairing into a capable top-four defender that has shown considerable improvement in his own end.  That will undoubtedly catch the eye of any GM that wants to try an offer sheet and isn’t impressed with the current trade or UFA options.  If one of those doesn’t materialize (which is the likelier scenario), a short-term contract will probably be the outcome since they don’t have much in the way of cap space to work with this offseason.

D Erik Cernak – He won’t blow anyone away offensively by any stretch but Cernak has settled into a strong defensive role and has been an anchor on what has been one of the better penalty kills among teams that have gone relatively deep into the playoffs.  Like Cirelli and Sergachev, he isn’t eligible for salary arbitration which will hurt his earnings upside a bit so a bridge contract is expected.  Even so, he should at least triple his $735K qualifying offer.

Other RFAs: F Ross Colton, F Mathieu Joseph, D Dominik Masin, F Gemel Smith, D Devante Stephens, F Mitchell Stephens, D Ben Thomas, F Carter Verhaeghe, F Alexander Volkov, F Dennis Yan

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Kevin Shattenkirk – While things didn’t work out well for him in New York, Shattenkirk has fared much better with the Lightning.  Instead of being counted on to be an offensive catalyst as he was with the Rangers, he’s in more of a supporting cast role and has made the most of it, picking up 34 points in 70 regular season games and nine more in 19 postseason contests so far.  He has done well to restore some value and while he won’t come anywhere close to the $6.65MM AAV of his contract that was eventually bought out, he should check in higher than $1.75MM he played for this year.  A multi-year pact is certainly a possibility as well.

F Patrick Maroon – Gone are the days where there were teams hoping that he could be part of a top-six forward group but Maroon has shown that he can still contribute in a more limited role.  Anyone looking for grit and leadership in their bottom six should show interest in Maroon, especially if he’s willing to take a deal close to the $900K he made this season.  With many teams being limited in what they can spend this offseason, he should have a longer list of suitors this time around.

D Zach Bogosian – Expectations were quite low after his deal with the Sabres was terminated but he has fit in nicely with the Lightning.  Between the regular season and playoffs, he has averaged around 18 minutes per game and has held his own.  It was risky walking away from more guaranteed money had he reported to Buffalo’s AHL affiliate but had he done that, there’s a good chance he wouldn’t have had much interest in free agency.  He should have several suitors now so this decision is one that has certainly worked out for him.

Other UFAs: G Mike Condon, D Cameron Gaunce, G Spencer Martin, D Jan Rutta, D Luke Schenn, D Patrick Sieloff, G Scott Wedgewood

Projected Cap Space

Tampa Bay has nearly $69MM in cap commitments for next season already, per CapFriendly.  That spending only gets them a goalie, two defensemen, and seven forwards.  With an $81.5MM cap, that leaves them less than $13MM to fill out half of their roster while having two of the top young restricted free agents needing new deals.  There’s no sugar coating it – they need to clear out a notable contract or two.  However, of the 10 players signed, only two don’t have trade protection and those two – Brayden Point and Andrei Vasilevskiy – aren’t going anywhere.  GM Julien BriseBois will have his work cut out for him when their series against Dallas comes to an end.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

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The Stanley Cup Finals are right around the corner and the offseason will follow quickly. With finances devastated over the last few months and teams looking at either the flat league-mandated salary cap or an even lower internal one, there should be plenty of player movement over the next few months. With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR mailbag.

If you missed our last one, it was split into two parts which you can read here and here. The first was focused solely on the New York Rangers given they had just won the first-overall pick and answered questions regarding the future of Henrik Lundqvist and potential second-line center targets. The second part was more wide-reaching, with topics including Ottawa’s potential cap space, Alex Pietrangelo’s future and the Detroit Red Wings offseason plans.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. We’ll try to get to everything when the mailbag runs this weekend.

Offseason Keys: Calgary Flames

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As teams are eliminated from the playoffs, it means that the offseason has arrived for several more squads.  Having covered the teams that weren’t a part of the NHL’s return and the ones ousted in the Qualifying Round, we shift our focus to the ones that were eliminated in the official first round.  Next up is a look at Calgary.

It has certainly been a disappointing last year and a half for the Flames.  After a quick exit at the hands of Colorado in the 2019 playoffs, GM Brad Treliving didn’t shake things up too much and instead just tweaked a few veteran players.  Things weren’t much better this season.  Bill Peters resigned following reports of abusive behaviour in the past and the team played a bit better when assistant Geoff Ward took over in an interim role (and was promoted to the full-time spot just yesterday).  However, it didn’t yield much in the way of playoff success; although they beat Winnipeg in the Qualifying Round, they were taken out by Dallas soon after.  This time around, bigger changes are expected meaning there is a lot at stake for Calgary this offseason.

Determine The Size Of The Forward Shakeup

When a team bows out quicker than expected once, it’s understandable if a GM decides to give that core group another chance if he believes that they can turn it around.  When it happens a second time in as many years as is the case here, patience isn’t going to be as justifiable.  The decision to give Ward the permanent head coaching position takes one of Treliving’s potential cards out of play which means the changes are going to have to come from their personnel.

Two of their top offensive players in center Sean Monahan and winger Johnny Gaudreau are coming off of quiet regular seasons.  After putting up 99 points a year ago, Gaudreau’s output dropped to just 58 while Monahan went from 82 to 48.  Yes, missing the final dozen games due to the pandemic skews the numbers a little but it was still a big letdown nonetheless.  Things weren’t much better in the playoffs either.  Gaudreau had seven points in 10 games but all but one came with the man advantage.  The ratio was only slightly better for Monahan who had five of his eight points on the power play.  Gaudreau has two years left and Monahan has three.  Treliving will need to decide if he’s willing to shake up the core with one of them potentially being moved or if he’ll dip a little deeper into his roster.

If he opts for the latter, Mark Jankowski is a likely trade candidate following a dreadful seven points in 56 games while Derek Ryan could be expendable in his walk year.  But moving those two players isn’t going to move the needle very much.  How much confidence does Treliving have in his forward group?  We’re going to find out soon enough.

Find A Starting Goalie

With David Rittich coming off of a nice rookie season, the decision to go out and add Cam Talbot in free agency made sense for Calgary.  Talbot was someone that was coming off of a tough year but had shown himself to be capable of playing more than a typical backup.  He’d bring a bit of upside while being an insurance policy for the inexperienced Rittich.

The results were mixed.  Talbot played a bit less than expected but put up his best numbers in several years.  That was the good news.  The bad news was that Rittich took a big step back.  It was telling that Talbot made every postseason start as well.

Talbot now hits the open market as one of the more intriguing goalies out there.  There aren’t going to be many starting opportunities available but he is well-positioned to land at least a stronger platoon role than what he had this year.  Rittich, meanwhile, is signed for another year at $2.75MM before being eligible for unrestricted free agency himself in 2021.

At this point, it’s hard to envision either of the two goalies being considered for the starting spot next season.  These next few weeks figure to feature a lot of movement between the pipes between trades and free agency.  With their prospects not being ready for prime time duty just yet, the Flames need to add a more proven starter ahead of Rittich if they want to head into next season feeling more confident about their chances.

Reshape The Defense

The back end has been a staple of the Flames for a while now but changes are on the horizon.  No fewer than five veteran defenders are set to hit the open market next month in T.J. Brodie, Travis Hamonic, Derek Forbort, Erik Gustafsson, and Michael Stone.  With more than $64MM in commitments already for next season to just 14 players, it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to bring back more than one of Brodie or Hamonic while Forbort and Gustafsson will likely find bigger roles if they go elsewhere.

As things stand, just three veterans are under contract for next season in Mark Giordano, Noah Hanifin, and Rasmus Andersson (whose six-year extension is set to come into effect).  Juuso Valimaki is also signed and on his entry-level deal but he missed all of this season after tearing his ACL last summer while training.  He’s likely going to be on the team but counting on him to have a big role would be risky considering how much time he missed.  Oliver Kylington is a restricted free agent and should be back as well but he is more of a depth option at this point as is Alexander Yelesin who enters the final year of his deal.  College free agency signing Connor Mackey is worth keeping an eye on but it’s unlikely he’d step into an impact role right away either.

This presents an opportunity for the Flames to reshape things a bit.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to funnel a bit of their previous spending either into adding a more prominent goalie or some more firepower up front.  If they can’t bring back one of Brodie or Hamonic, they’ll likely have to try to add a new rearguard or two.  Depth defenders are available in free agency but if they want a top-four option, they’ll likely have to turn to the trade market and if it’s an impact defenseman that they want to add, it’ll take more than a depth forward or two to get one.  Changes appear to be on the way for Calgary’s defensive group.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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