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What Your Team Is Thankful For: Boston Bruins

at CDT | by 5 Comments

It’s Thanksgiving this week in the United States and the holiday season is right around the corner. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for once the calendar turns to 2021.

What are the Bruins most thankful for?

Their proven veteran core.

Up front, their top line is still among the best number one units in the entire league and accounted for just over 47% of their goals last season.  While that’s an indictment of their secondary scoring, it also shows how dominant the trio of Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, and Patrice Bergeron has been.  It’s a line that just gets the job done nightly although they won’t all be available for the start of next season.  Once they’re all healthy though, watch for them to pick up right where they left off.

That veteran core also includes goaltenders Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak.  The pair have formed a very strong tandem the last two seasons and with a schedule that figures to feature more back-to-backs, few teams will be better equipped for that than the Bruins whose goaltending should once again be near the top of the league.

Who are the Bruins most thankful for?

Pastrnak would be an easy choice here as the young sniper on the rise to stardom but at this point, they may be most thankful for Marchand.  Over the years, he has emerged from being an agitator who could contribute in a secondary role to a legitimate star (who can still agitate from time to time).  Not all top liners take a regular turn killing penalties but he does which has led him to average more than 19 minutes per game in each of the last four years.  He has averaged over a point per game in that span as well.  For all of that, they’re paying a price tag that some 50-point players were getting in free agency not long ago at $6.25MM.  Better yet, he’s locked up at that rate through 2025.  Marchand has been a fixture in Boston for more than a decade and with that contract, he’ll continue to be one for several years to come.

What would the Bruins be even more thankful for?

A top-four left-shot defenseman.

Between the departures of Torey Krug (St. Louis) and Zdeno Chara (unsigned free agent), the Bruins have lost over 41 minutes per game from the left side of their back end and a lot of offense.  Management showed that they believe that Matt Grzelcyk is ready for a larger role when they handed him a four-year, $14.75MM deal last month.  But he hasn’t played in that role before and neither has anyone else in the organization – John Moore is more of a depth option while their prospects are still largely untested at the NHL level.  Boston is in good shape on the right side led by Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo but they’d feel a whole lot better with a proven option on the left to go with them.

What should be on the Bruins’ Holiday Wish List?

Beyond that top-four left-shot defender, the Bruins could also stand to try to upgrade their secondary scoring some more.  Craig Smith was a nice addition but knowing that Pastrnak will miss time (and potentially Marchand), they’re going to take a step back offensively in the early going.  They’re one of the few teams that’s willing to spend and still has a bit more than nominal cap room remaining.  Can they afford a top-six forward?  Not as things stand but if they strike out on adding a defender, a middle-six winger that’s looking to try their luck on the open market again next season would certainly help their chances and really give them three lines capable of producing when everyone is healthy.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Los Angeles Kings

at CDT | by 6 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Los Angeles Kings

Current Cap Hit: $67,879,285 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Michael Anderson (two years, $925K)
F Quinton Byfield (three years, $925K)
F Blake Lizotte (one year, $925K)
F Gabriel Vilardi (two years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses:

Anderson: $850K
Byfield: $2.65MM
Lizotte: $850K
Vilardi: $850K
Total: $5.2MM

It has been a tough couple of years for Vilardi who has had lingering back issues to contend with.  Fortunately, he was able to make it up to the Kings in the weeks before the pandemic shut things down and he did pretty well in a limited role.  He’ll have a shot at a regular spot down the middle next season although he’ll be battling Byfield, the second-overall pick last month, for playing time.  He still has junior eligibility but with the OHL season not starting until February, it’s likely that he’ll break camp with the Kings.  Lizotte was a regular in the bottom six a year ago and assuming he can build off that performance, he should be able to garner at least a small raise next offseason.

As for Anderson, he’s like Vilardi in that he was able to get a brief look with Los Angeles before the pandemic hit and it was probably enough to earn him a spot as GM Rob Blake didn’t change up too much on his back end.  A full season should have him in line for a modest raise but given that his cumulative experience will be less than a regular 82-game campaign, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team try to get him to take a bit less than his qualifying offer while giving him a one-way pact.  Tobias Bjornfot (three years, $894K) broke camp with the Kings a year ago and could potentially do so again but it’s hard to imagine them burning the first year of his entry-level deal at this time.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Michael Amadio ($700K, RFA)
F Alex Iafallo ($2.425MM, UFA)
F Trevor Moore ($775K, RFA)
D Matt Roy ($700K, RFA)

Iafallo has very quietly become one of the better undrafted college free agent signings in recent years.  He has worked his way up to a top-six spot and very quietly finished second on the team in scoring last season.  This current UFA market hasn’t been the kindest to wingers but a similar showing from him next season should help generate plenty of interest which should secure him a nice raise with some security.  Moore was brought in from Toronto near the trade deadline and was relatively productive in limited action.  The first step is simply locking down a regular spot which is something that hasn’t happened yet and if he can do that, he’ll be well-positioned for at least a small raise although his arbitration eligibility may hurt him more than help him.  Amadio locked down a regular role last season and should be poised to build on that in 2020-21 which should comfortably move him out of league minimum territory.

Roy gave the Kings 18 minutes a night while being their best blueliner from a possession perspective.  A repeat performance could give him a strong enough platform to at least triple his current salary.  Any time a team can get a capable blueliner for the minimum, they’re thrilled.

Two Years Remaining

F Dustin Brown ($5.875MM, UFA)
F Jeff Carter ($5.273MM, UFA)
F Martin Frk ($725K, UFA)
F Adrian Kempe ($2MM, RFA)
D Olli Maatta ($3.333MM, UFA)*
D Kurtis MacDermid ($875K, UFA)
G Calvin Petersen ($858K, UFA)

*- Chicago is retaining an addition $750K of Maatta’s cap hit and salary

There are times where Brown has lived up to his price tag and others where it hasn’t been close.  He currently falls between the two as someone that’s paid to be a top-six winger and produces like a third-liner.  He’ll nearly be 38 when his next contract starts and he’ll be hard-pressed to come close to that AAV.  Carter is another player that’s on the downswing and it could very well be his last deal.  If not, he’ll be going year to year, potentially with some performance incentives.  Kempe is defensively strong while his offensive production has been consistently inconsistent.  This bridge deal makes a lot of sense for both sides and it will be his ability (or lack thereof) to improve at the offensive end that determines whether he’s a core piece of the future that can command a long-term deal or someone that has to take a lot of short-term pacts.  Frk was a strong scorer with AHL Ontario last season and did well enough to earn a two-year, one-way deal for his troubles although he could also be a candidate to be waived if other prospects show that they’re ready.

Maatta was brought in as a salary dump from the Blackhawks but he could very well be in line for a large role next season.  Still just 26, his contract could certainly be looked at more favorably if he can handle the increased ice time.  On the other hand, further struggles could lead to a 50% pay cut or more two years from now.  MacDermid is probably best suited to be a seventh option at this point and players in that situation are typically either retained at that price point or replaced by someone else at a similar rate.

Petersen has more than held his own in his first two partial seasons with the Kings although it is just a 19-game sample size.  As things stand, he is potentially their starter of the future and that could have him well-positioned for a significant jump into the multi-million range if all goes well.

Three Years Remaining

F Austin Wagner ($1.133MM, RFA)
G Jonathan Quick ($5.9MM, UFA)

Wagner has a slightly higher price tag than a lot of fourth liners have had to take this offseason but there is still some upside (he’s only 23) and it’s not as if Los Angeles is short on cap space.  It’s a deal that looks a little expensive now but if he progresses a bit at the offensive end, it could be a bargain by the end.

Quick has been a fixture between the pipes in Los Angeles for more than a decade.  However, his performance tapered off considerably two years ago and only improved a little bit last season.  Part of that is the team in front of him – the Kings are no longer contenders as they were before – but at 34, age is starting to creep up to him.  He remains the starter and that price tag isn’t overly high for someone in that range as it’s only a bit above the median among starters but they haven’t received much bang for that buck lately.  As Petersen contends for more playing time, that’s not likely to change although Los Angeles will be better for it in the long run if he can ascend to that number one role and push Quick into playing less.

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What Your Team Is Thankful For: Arizona Coyotes

at CDT | by 4 Comments

It’s Thanksgiving this week in the United States and the holiday season is right around the corner. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for once the calendar turns to 2021.

What are the Coyotes most thankful for? 

New management.

2020 has not been good to the Coyotes. The team was docked draft picks for improper prospect testing, had their general manager leave the team right before the postseason began, and then watched Taylor Hall—who cost three prospects and two high draft picks—leave in free agency only to sign a one-year deal in Buffalo, a team that has had even less on-ice success in recent years. Then what was left of their scouting department, running the draft without input from their new GM, selected a player that was immediately in the middle of a public relations firestorm, with the team eventually renouncing his rights. The Coyotes would end up with just four players from the 2020 draft, none selected higher than 142nd.

It was just blow after blow to an organization that seemed to be headed in the right direction after securing new, stable ownership last year.

Now, thankful for Bill Armstrong finally taking the reins of the front office, the Coyotes have a long way back. Armstrong has already made an important move, even if it did fly somewhat under the radar in NHL circles. The Coyotes secured the employment of Darryl Plandowski, who had served as assistant director of amateur scouting in Tampa Bay. Plandowski is very well-respected across the industry as a leading scouting mind and hopefully will be able to turn around a department that had caused catastrophic penalties for the organization, not to mention the fact that out of the last four Coyotes drafts (not including 2020), only Jakob Chychrun, Clayton Keller, and Barrett Hayton have actually made it to the NHL. Armstrong and Plandowski have a ton of work to do.

Who are the Coyotes most thankful for?

Jakob Chychrun.

It seems clear now that Keller isn’t going to become the franchise-leading, game-changing offensive presence that the Coyotes hoped they were going to get when they selected him seventh overall in 2016. It’s not that Keller is a bad player, far from it. But since scoring 65 points in his rookie year and finishing third in Calder voting, he hasn’t taken any real developmental steps—even seeing his scoring totals go down in each following season. Keller is only just beginning an eight-year extension signed last September, which will carry a $7.15MM cap hit through the 2027-28 season. Even if he does get back on track and improve his offensive totals, that deal doesn’t leave a lot of chance for excess value.

But all is not lost. The Coyotes had another first-round pick in 2016, this time 16th overall. That’s where they selected Chychrun, who, despite dealing with injury, has developed into a legitimate force on the blueline. Now four years into his NHL career, Chychrun looks like he will be a horse for the Coyotes as an all-situations defender that can log huge minutes. He averaged more than 22 minutes a night in 2019-20, reaching a new career-high in goals with 12 and points with 26 despite playing in just 63 games. Unlike Keller, Chychrun’s long-term deal, this time signed in 2018, looks like a steal for the Coyotes moving forward. Not only does he carry just a $4.6MM cap hit through 2024-25, but the deal is also heavily back-loaded, meaning Chychrun will only actually earn $3.3MM in salary this season. With the financial environment so uncertain, value like that is hard to come by in the NHL.

What would the Coyotes be even more thankful for?

A seller’s market at the trade deadline.

The Coyotes made the postseason this year and have their sights set on it again, but it’s plain to see that this iteration of the team will have a hard time actually contending for a Stanley Cup. However, they may be able to build a new wing for their prospect cupboard if they decide to sell off some assets at the deadline. Derek Stepan, Alex Goligoski, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Jason Demers, Jordan Oesterle, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Antti Raanta are all pending unrestricted free agents, and though many of them have big cap hits, the actual salary owed by deadline time will be relatively low. If Armstrong plays his cards right, he could potentially add a massive wave of draft picks and prospects to the organization, provided there is a market for this group of veterans (and he’s willing to sell).

What should be on the Coyotes’ holiday wish list?

Draft picks.

There are good prospects in the Arizona system, make no mistake. Hayton is already ready for primetime and Victor Soderstrom is among the handful of best defensive prospects in the league. But you can’t just punt on an entire draft class unless you’re already one of the elite teams in the league. Not only did Arizona come away from this draft without any sure-fire NHL prospects, but they don’t have their first or third for the 2021 draft either. There’s no way the organization will be able to climb the NHL ladder with that kind of gap in development, meaning they need to find a way to add picks this season. Whether that’s through selling off expiring deals or even potentially trading their captain, it’s imperative for Arizona to get back into the early rounds.

Last year’s Thankful series can be found here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Edmonton Oilers

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Edmonton Oilers

Current Cap Hit: $82,529,158 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Kailer Yamamoto (one year, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Yamamoto: $230K

Yamamoto’s first two NHL stints didn’t go too well but that changed last year.  Upon being recalled back in late December, he immediately stepped into a top-six role and was productive, hovering near a point per game along the way.  If that continues into next season, he should have enough of a track record to command a sizable raise next year.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Tyson Barrie ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Alex Chiasson ($2.15MM, UFA)
F Tyler Ennis ($1MM, UFA)
F Gaetan Haas ($915K, UFA)
F Dominik Kahun ($975K, RFA)
F Jujhar Khaira ($1.2MM, RFA)
D Adam Larsson ($4.167MM, UFA)
F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6MM, UFA)
F Joakim Nygard ($875K, UFA)
G Mike Smith ($1.5MM, UFA)

Potential Bonuses

Smith: $500K

Nugent-Hopkins is the most notable player on this list by far and exploratory talks on an extension have taken place.  The 27-year-old has spent most of his career down the middle but has seen a lot more time on the left wing in recent years and his production has taken off as a result.  Either as a top-scoring winger or a capable pivot, he should be able to get a small raise on his current deal as well as a long-term pact.  Chiasson’s second season didn’t go as well as his first and if he produces at a similar rate next season, he will be taking a cut in Edmonton or somewhere else.  Khaira is a fourth liner most nights and that price tag would be hard to justify in this era so he looks like a non-tender candidate at this time while Nygard and Haas are role players who could be retained or replaced with similar-priced players a year from now.

Ennis and Kahun have the potential to be two of the better bargain signings this offseason (Kahun could wind up as the best bargain depending on what else happens).  Ennis showed that he still has some production in him with Ottawa and certainly held his own after being moved to Edmonton at the deadline and it won’t take much to justify that price tag.  Kahun was a surprising non-tender by Buffalo and figures to play in their middle six.  There’s still some upside in his game and he should be counted on as a reliable secondary scorer for a team that has been lacking in that department at times.

Barrie spurned higher-priced offers to try to rebuild his value and he’ll certainly fit in as the anchor on the back end on the power play.  The rest of his game isn’t the strongest but he has never been known as a staunch defender; point production is what will make or break his hopes of cashing in a year from now.  Larsson is naturally best known for being the single asset coming to the Oilers from the Taylor Hall trade but while he hasn’t been able to reach the top pairing status that his draft selection would suggest, he is an effective top-four option.  He’s not looking at a big raise a year from now but something around what he’s making now is certainly doable.

Smith didn’t have a great year last season but the team opted to bring him back.  At 38, he’s going year-to-year at this point and will need to improve in his second go-round to have a shot at even a modest raise next offseason.

Two Years Remaining

F Josh Archibald ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Caleb Jones ($850K, RFA)
G Mikko Koskinen ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Darnell Nurse ($5.6MM, UFA)
F Jesse Puljujarvi ($1.175MM, RFA)
D Kris Russell ($4MM in 2020-21, $1.25MM in 2021-22, UFA)
F Kyle Turris ($1.65MM, UFA)

Turris was brought in to give the Oilers another proven option down the middle, a move that further cements Nugent-Hopkins’ short-term future on the wing.  Yes, he struggled in Nashville under the weight of his old contract but with a clearly-defined role and a reasonable price tag, he should fare much better with the Oilers.  Archibald has quietly put up a dozen goals over each of the last two seasons which earned him a bit of security but he’ll need to better those numbers if he wants a bigger contract two years from now.  Puljujarvi is going to be one of the more interesting players to follow next season.  He didn’t get his trade and while he played well in Finland, there are still plenty of question marks.  There’s an opportunity for him and if he grabs it, he could be in line for a big raise down the road.  If he doesn’t, he’s someone that could find himself without a qualifying offer as well.

Nurse opted to take a deal that brought him straight to UFA eligibility back in February.  It’s something that’s riskier now than it was back then but as we saw this offseason, impact blueliners still got paid.  Accordingly, even if the cap crunch remains in 2022, it shouldn’t hurt his fortunes too much.  Russell had to take a significant pay cut but was able to leverage next year’s expansion into an early extension, one that’s more in line with the role he plays.  Jones is now waiver-eligible so he’s a safe bet to be on the roster but will likely have a limited role next season.

Koskinen’s extension two years ago was baffling and appeared to be the final straw that pushed out former GM Peter Chiarelli.  It’s not that he has been particularly bad by any stretch but he is still rather unproven at the age of 32 and hasn’t shown that he can handle a full number one workload.  At this point, it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to land a big raise on the open market but GM Ken Holland will certainly have to budget a higher amount for a more proven starter that offseason.  If Koskinen is ultimately retained at a similar rate, then more money will need to be invested into the backup position and with Nurse being the only big-ticket expiring deal (and they’ll want to retain him), freeing up more goalie money could be tricky.

Three Years Remaining

D Oscar Klefbom ($4.167MM, UFA)
F James Neal ($5.75MM, UFA)

Neal had a bit of a resurgence last season, jumping from seven goals the year before to 19 despite the pandemic cutting things short.  That’s still not a great return on that price tag by any stretch but it’s still an improvement.  Despite that, this is a contract that could be bought out by the time it’s set to expire.

Klefbom is set to miss potentially the entire season due to shoulder troubles which freed up the money to sign Barrie (as Klefbom will head to LTIR, allowing Edmonton to exceed the cap).  He has turned into a legitimate top-pairing player and assuming he’s able to come back in 2021-22 and pick up where he left off, he’s looking at a significant raise on his next deal.

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What Your Team Is Thankful For: Anaheim Ducks

at CDT | by 2 Comments

It’s Thanksgiving in the United States and the holiday season is right around the corner. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for once the calendar turns to 2021.

What are the Ducks most thankful for? 

Extended training camp and European leagues.

This isn’t a contending year for the Ducks, who should be more focused on the development of their young prospects than anything else. Teams in that situation are probably incredibly frustrated with the status of junior leagues across North America, with young players like sixth-overall pick Jamie Drysdale unable to play in the OHL so far. Drysdale will get a chance to play at the World Juniors (after his quarantine) but many other youngsters are still waiting on their first competitive action since March.

The Ducks, as one of the teams that did not take part in the summer’s postseason bubble, are expected to receive an extra week of training camp when things finally get going. That will be quality development time for their young players, just like the time they’ve spent overseas in the interim. Lukas Dostal, who is now returning to North America, played 11 games for Ilves in Finland this fall, posting an incredible 10-1 record and .960 save percentage. While other prospects are just begging for ice time, he’s been refining his game against professionals.

Who are the Ducks most thankful for?

Ryan Getzlaf.

As we head into what will be a shortened season, Ducks fans can’t help but think about the fact that Getzlaf is in the final season of that massive eight-year, $66MM deal he signed in 2013. Now 35 and already missing Corey Perry, his partner in crime for more than a decade, the time for Getzlaf in Anaheim is winding down. But everyone that has cheered for the big centerman over the years is thankful for what he’s done for the franchise, constantly providing an anchor in the middle of the lineup and elevating his teammates on a nightly basis.

Though Getzlaf isn’t the 91-point superstar that once was or even the uber-confident youngster that helped the Ducks to a Stanley Cup championship, he’s still a strong leader and easy player to cheer for. While the organization grooms their next wave of leaders, give a thought to Getzlaf who will one day be the focus of a heated Hall of Fame argument (even if he might eventually miss the call).

What would the Ducks be even more thankful for?

A breakout performance.

While the team has a ton of young high draft picks in the system, they’re still waiting for a real breakout from someone. Like when Getzlaf jumped directly into the league with 39 points in 57 games as a rookie, the Ducks need someone to show they’ll be the next superstar in Anaheim. Troy Terry, Max Jones, Sam Steel, Isac Lundestrom, Trevor Zegras, Benoit-Olivier Groulx, Max Comtois, and on and on, someone needs to step up and become the next face of the franchise.

What should be on the Ducks’ holiday wish list?

Minor league and junior seasons.

If the opportunity isn’t there at the NHL level right away, the Ducks are going to have to hope that the AHL and Canadian junior leagues are able to hold seasons. Remember it’s not just Drysdale that the Ducks drafted in the first round this year, but Jacob Perreault, who is currently waiting on his OHL season to begin. The 27th-overall pick has already signed after scoring 39 goals and 70 points in 57 games last year, but wasn’t invited to Canada’s WJC camp and is too young for the AHL.

If it’s a development year, there need to be development leagues playing.

Last year’s Thankful series can be found here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Calgary Flames

at CDT | by 3 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Calgary Flames

Current Cap Hit: $80,489,166 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Dillon Dube (one year, $778K)
D Juuso Valimaki (one year, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Dube: $32.5K
Valimaki: $425K
Total: $457.5K

After being recalled in mid-November, Dube was up to stay with Calgary, playing in 45 regular season games as well as all ten playoff games.  While he’s projected to be a full-time regular next year, it’s unlikely that he’ll command a significant raise on his next deal unless he’s able to grab a top-six role which isn’t likely at this stage of his career.  Valimaki missed all of last season while recovering from knee surgery.  As things stand, he should slot in on the third pairing but with how much development time he has lost, a bridge contract next offseason is quite likely for him.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Sam Bennett ($2.55MM, RFA)
F Josh Leivo ($875K, UFA)
D Nikita Nesterov ($700K, UFA)
F Joakim Nordstrom ($700K, UFA)
G David Rittich ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Derek Ryan ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Dominik Simon ($700K, UFA)

It wasn’t a good regular season at all for Bennett who looked like he was heading straight towards non-tender territory for the 2021 offseason.  Then the playoffs came where he was much better.  A full-season showing like that would have him well-positioned for a raise next offseason but if not, Calgary could still view his $2.55MM qualifier as too rich for them.  Ryan’s point per game average was comparable to that of his previous two seasons which is a positive.  However, with the state of the market now, his deal has gone from decent value to a slight overpayment and considering he’ll be 34 when his next contract begins, it’s difficult to see him getting a raise next year.  Leivo was well on his way to a career year before a fractured kneecap derailed things and resulted in him needing to take a show-me deal.  This has the potential to be one of the better bargains from free agency and if he stays healthy and produces around a 30-35-point level, he’ll be in good shape for a nice raise next year.  Simon and Nordstrom are likely to be fourth line or depth players and barring a surprise offensive uptick, both will be looking at similar amounts a year from now.

Nesterov’s return to the NHL came as a bit of a surprise but it’s a no-risk move for the Flames.  Offensively, he can contribute but he will need to show some defensive improvement to have an opportunity to land a more prominent contract next summer.  Rittich’s chance of getting a better deal next offseason is certainly in jeopardy after the year he had and the fact he is now cemented as a backup goaltender.  Calgary may be able to look to sign him (or someone else) for a bit cheaper next year to free up a bit more wiggle room.

Two Years Remaining

F Johnny Gaudreau ($6.75MM, UFA)
D Mark Giordano ($6.75MM, UFA)
F Andrew Mangiapane ($2.425MM, RFA)
F Matthew Tkachuk ($7MM, RFA)

Gaudreau’s value certainly took a dip last season but while he didn’t come close to the 99-point mark again, he still was in the top 50 in scoring league-wide.  His playoff performances have underwhelmed but at 27, there’s little reason to think he isn’t going to be an impact player for several years to come.  Unless his output drops again, he’s still looking at a pricey deal on his next contract and whether or not it’s a small raise or cut will depend on his ability to approach his 2018-19 levels.  Mangiapane’s first full NHL season was a strong one as he carved out a top-six role.  Assuming he can hold onto that, he’ll be in line for a raise with arbitration rights two years from now.

Tkachuk is going to be one of the more intriguing RFA cases of the 2022 cohort.  He’s still subject to the old rules for qualifying offers which means Calgary must tender a $9MM qualifying offer.  Under the old cap environment (one that had frequent increases), that was still significant but now, it’s even more important.  The Flames can take him to arbitration which could potentially lower the cost but the minimum award would be $7.65MM and chances are that Tkachuk will perform well enough to do better than that.  He also has the option to just file for arbitration himself or accept the qualifying offer; either route would walk him to UFA eligibility at 25 in the prime of his career.  Accordingly, GM Brad Treliving will almost certainly be wanting to start extension talks as soon as possible (the first official day of the 2021-22 campaign).

Giordano saw his point production decline sharply last season but the 2019 Norris Trophy winner is still a fixture on the top pairing for the Flames.  His price tag is more than reasonable but he will be hard-pressed to command a similar deal two years from now when he’ll be entering his age-39 season.  He’ll be eligible for bonuses in one-year deals at that time and that will probably be the route that teams will want to go with him.

Three Years Remaining

F Milan Lucic ($5.25MM, UFA)*
F Sean Monahan ($6.375MM, UFA)

*- Edmonton is retaining another $750K on Lucic’s deal

Like Gaudreau, Monahan is coming off of a big drop offensively which had some wondering if he’d be moved if Treliving opted to shake up his roster.  That didn’t happen and instead, he’ll have an opportunity to try to re-establish himself as a fixture on the top line.  Still just 26, Monahan could be an intriguing free agent three years from now with impact centers not often making it to the open market.  Lucic, meanwhile, is viewed as having one of the worst contracts in the league.  Unfortunately for Calgary, the structure of the deal (frontloading with signing bonuses) makes it effectively buyout-proof so this is one they’re probably not going to be able to get out of unless they can find another bad contract for bad contract swap.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Arizona Coyotes

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Arizona Coyotes

Current Cap Hit: $84,270,284 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Barrett Hayton (two years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Hayton: $1.75MM

Once considered a team full of young players, the Coyotes have changed their image over the last few years and have only one young player on their team under a cheap entry-level deal with only a handful of entry-level players that are even close to joining the team. Hayton, however, could be ready for a breakout season after spending the season with the team last year. Unfortunately for Hayton, he would have benefitted the most with one year in the AHL, but wasn’t eligible to play there, so instead of returning him to his junior team, the Coyotes kept him around. He only appeared in 20 games (although he did miss time with a shoulder injury at the World Juniors), but showed enough potential that he should be an everyday player next season. A big year from the 2019 fifth-overall pick would be a boost to the team’s center position.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Derek Stepan ($6.5MM, UFA)
D Alex Goligoski ($5.48MM, UFA)
F Marian Hossa ($5.28MM, UFA)
D Niklas Hjalmarsson ($5MM, UFA)
G Antti Raanta ($4.25MM, UFA)
D Jason Demers ($3.94MM, UFA)
D Jordan Oesterle ($1.4MM, UFA)
D Ilya Lyubushkin ($1MM, UFA)
F Conor Garland ($775K, RFA)
F John Hayden ($750K, RFA)
F Dryden Hunt ($700K, RFA)

For a team that is looking to cut salary, the team has a lot of money coming off the books next year, suggesting the team could look drastically different in just one year. Some of those players could find themselves to be trade bait when the trade deadline comes around. The most interesting decision the team might have to make is what to do with Stepan, however. The 30-year-old was brought in from New York to stabilize their top line three years ago. He had four straight seasons of 50 or more points while with the Rangers and posted a 56-point season with the Coyotes in 2017-18. However, his production has taken a dive over the past two years as Stepan posted just 35 points (in 72 games) in 2018-19 and then dropped even further last year with just 28 points in 70 games. A team leader, the Coyotes have to hope that Stepan can return to form this season or the team could choose to move on from him.

The team’s defense is loaded with several high-priced veteran blueliners and almost all of their contracts come up next season, including Goligoski, Hjalmarsson and Demers. Goligoski is 35, but is still playing major minutes for Arizona and could be a candidate to return at a slightly lesser deal. Hjalmarsson is 33, but has seen his game break down a bit as he has dealt with numerous injuries the last couple of years, including a fractured fibula that cost him 43 games last year. The 32-year-old Demers also averaged more than 20 minutes of ATOI per game. The team may keep one or two of those players, but likely will not keep all three.

The team will also want to evaluate the play of Raanta, who has showed flashes of dominance, but also has dealt with injuries and inconsistent play at times as well. Raanta did play well last season, posting a .921 save percentage in 33 games and gives the team several options in the net. Raanta could easily be re-signed to new deal or could be a trade candidate as well.

The team will also finally be free of Hossa’s $5.28MM contract the team took on years ago.

Two Years Remaining

F Phil Kessel ($6.8MM, UFA)
G Darcy Kuemper ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Tyler Pitlick ($1.75MM, UFA)
F Lawson Crouse ($1.53MM, RFA)
F Johan Larsson ($1.4MM, UFA)
F Christian Fischer ($1MM, RFA)

The team brought in Kessel to bring in the firepower that the team needed as goal scoring remains one of the team’s biggest weak points. Unfortunately, the first year with Kessel didn’t turn out to be the big acquisition that the team was hoping for. After an 28-goal, 82-point season in 2018-19, the 33-year-old saw quite a decline in his play with just 14 goals and 38 points in 70 games. That’s way below what they were hoping for and Arizona has to hope that Kessel can return to form this year in hopes of increasing his value if the team wants to move him at the trade deadline or next offseason when he has just one year left on his deal.

Kuemper has become the Coyotes’ top asset as the 30-year-old has been nothing short of dominant over the past two years and remains on a manageable contract. His name came up in trade speculation this offseason, but with so many free-agent goalies available, Arizona didn’t get the offers it was hoping for. That could change down the road. Yet at the same time, Kuemper might be worth keeping around down the road.

Three Years Remaining

None

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PHR Mailbag: Coaching Candidates, Rangers, Metropolitan Division, Predators, Free Agency, Blackhawks, Dubas, Red Wings, Avalanche

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The second half of our mailbag is a busy one with topics including coaching candidates around the league, Nashville’s goaltending situation, the slow free agent market, the future of Kyle Dubas in Toronto, Colorado’s salary cap planning, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

@michiganroman: Who are the top-5 ex-NHLer head coaching candidates?

Gerard Gallant certainly has to be at or near the top of the list.  While it’s notable that his stints with Florida and Vegas didn’t last too long, it’s also important to note that those teams did well after he took over.  The purpose of a coaching change is usually to give a jolt to the current roster in the hopes of improving things and he has shown that he can have an early impact.  Given Gallant’s expansion experience with the Golden Knights, he’d certainly make sense for Seattle.

Mike Babcock and Bruce Boudreau could make sense depending on what a team is looking for.  A team looking for some structure and discipline could turn to Babcock while one that is seeking an offensive boost could look at Boudreau.  John Stevens’ stock may be up after the strong season Dallas had as well.

I know the question asks for five but I have two other names I want to highlight.  One is Jim Montgomery, the former coach of the Stars.  His firing was related to an off-ice issue and following a stint in rehab, he’s back in the game as an assistant with St. Louis.  I could see someone giving him a second chance at some point.

The other one is a bit more off the radar in Kevin Dineen.  He’s currently the head coach of AHL San Diego (the second time Anaheim has hired him to run their farm team) while he has head and assistant coaching experience in the NHL as well as some international experience with Canada’s under-18 team and their 2014 women’s Olympic team.  That’s a rather rare combination to have so I’m a little surprised his name doesn’t surface as often for coaching vacancies.

gg24: Will the Rangers be a contender after just this year’s FA and draft acquisitions?

pitmanrich: How do you judge David Quinn’s first two years as Rangers head coach? How much credit does he deserve for the likes of Strome, DeAngelo, Zibanejad and Panarin’s career years and how much is awful defensive play down to him? Rangers are definitely heading in the right direction under Gorton despite little added this offseason but if they miss the playoffs, will coach Quinn be on the hot seat or does he deserve more time?

There’s one way that the Rangers are a contender this season and that’s if Igor Shesterkin plays like he did in a brief stint last year over the full 2020-21 season.  If that happens and the offense holds up (or even improves with Alexis Lafreniere), they could do some damage.  Having said that, I wouldn’t have them in the contender tier just yet.

I also wouldn’t have them in a spot where Quinn is coaching for his job either.  When the team said they were doing a full-scale rebuild, that typically takes longer than three years even though they’ve been able to take some shortcuts along the way by getting Artemi Panarin and lucking out in the lottery to get Lafreniere.  Unless they take a huge step back, Quinn’s job should be safe.

Mika Zibanejad may be the only one where I’d give Quinn a fair bit of credit for ‘unlocking’ his potential.  He was a good second center before but now, he’s one that appears to be a franchise cornerstone.  Panarin helped Ryan Strome to his career numbers and it’s not as if Panarin’s offensive prowess came out of nowhere.  Anthony DeAngelo certainly has emerged since Quinn took over but it also coincides with DeAngelo getting his first real opportunity.  As for their poor defensive showing, their back end isn’t full of high-quality defenders so I think roster composition and not system problems is more to blame there.

acarneglia: How do you project the Metropolitan Division to shake out? Any surprises? Dark horses?

This one is tough to call now as we have no idea who will actually be in the Metropolitan Division or even if there is a Metropolitan Division following the expected re-alignment to accommodate the all-Canadian grouping that is likely to be required.  So instead, here is some general commentary of how things look.

In terms of the regular teams, I could see Carolina pushing for the top spot.  It’s going to be a year of platooning goalies and they’re used to that structure already while the core they have now is better than the one they had for most of last year.  Philadelphia will be up there and if Tristan Jarry can hold up as the full-fledged starter, Pittsburgh should be as well and Washington can’t be counted out.  I could see the Islanders taking a step back but a Barry Trotz-coached team is always going to be in the thick of things.  The Rangers may not quite be at that level yet, Columbus seems vulnerable after their moves, and New Jersey still has a ways to go, even with some stability between the pipes now.

The Duke: Can you please make long- and short-term sense of Nashville’s goaltending? Thanks.

The Predators seem to be in decent shape on both fronts.  Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros are both signed for next season only and will probably platoon regardless of what format the schedule winds up being.  At that point, Saros will be eligible for restricted free agency and arbitration and will likely get the higher payday and take over as the 1A role unless he really struggles next season.  I wouldn’t necessarily call him a starter but they don’t really need him in that role for too long either way.  Rinne can either take a pay cut to stick around or walk.  If it’s the latter, Connor Ingram moves up and if last season wasn’t an aberration, he could push for a decent-sized workload right away.

Long-term, Yaroslav Askarov is their goalie of the future.  He may be three or four years away from moving into that role so GM David Poile’s hope at this time is that one of Saros or Ingram is the other netminder when Askarov is ready to make the jump.

I wouldn’t put Nashville near the top of the league in goaltending for next season but their tandem is good enough to get the job done most nights.  I believe Askarov has the potential to be one of the top goalies down the road so I’d say they’re in good shape in terms of their long-term situation.

DarkSide830: Updated predictions on top remaining FAs?

There are five top-20 players from our top-50 rankings that are still unsigned so I’ll use that as the cutoff point for ‘top’ players.

Mike Hoffman (4) – He’s willing to take a one-year deal although he may not wind up with top dollar when it’s all said and done.  Something around $4.5MM is possible with Nashville looking like a strong fit.  They have the money and the roster spot to fill while he’d be a huge boost to a power play that wasn’t very good a year ago.

Mikael Granlund (9) – I like New Jersey here for him.  The long-term, big-money deal isn’t happening but a two or three-year pact for him to serve as a veteran mentor and bridge to some of their younger talent makes some sense, especially with his positional versatility.  The Devils can afford to pay more than most teams but the AAV should check in somewhere near the $4MM mark.

Travis Hamonic (13) – I’ve liked Winnipeg as his landing spot going back to the start of free agency and I’m not changing that one now.  He takes a PTO to go to camp with them with an agreement in hand to sign a deal closer to $3MM once Bryan Little is placed on LTIR.

Sami Vatanen (14) – If Philadelphia can get Philippe Myers to take a one-year deal, I think Vatanen on a one-year, $2.75MM or so contract makes a lot of sense for both sides.  If they opt for a multi-year deal for Myers, they price themselves out of signing Vatanen at which point he’d have to look elsewhere.  I could see the Kings looking at him on a one-year deal as well with an eye on moving him at the deadline.

Erik Haula (16) – I’m surprised he’s still out there given that there are quite a few teams that could use help down the middle.  Returning to Florida may make the most sense for him – their depth chart at center isn’t great and they’ve lost some offense in free agency.  A one-year deal around $2MM or so would sting in the short-term but he’d have a chance to boost his offensive numbers and try again next summer with a better platform year to work off of.

lapcheung39: The Chicago Blackhawks spend only under $2MM on both their goalies. Do you think they will add a veteran like Anderson, Howard?

If there was a veteran goaltender out there that could really make a difference, I’d say that Chicago should go and get that goalie.  Craig Anderson and Jimmy Howard aren’t difference-makers at this stage of their respective careers though.  They’re fringe backups and the Blackhawks already have that with Malcolm Subban and Collin Delia who are the early contenders to serve as their goalie tandem next season.

Kevin Lankinen’s name isn’t getting enough attention though.  I may be swayed a bit too much by his performance at the 2019 World Championships but he’s a goalie that can win his team some games on his own which is something that can’t be said for the other two.  While some have him being the odd man out, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he winds up as Chicago’s starter when all is said and done.  Justified or not (and I’m inclined to call it the latter), this is the route that GM Stan Bowman opted to take with his goaltenders.  With what’s left, they may as well see it through with what they have.

jimmertee: How long does Kyle Dubas keep his job?

I think his leash is still pretty long.  The direction that this team has gone isn’t just solely his vision and it seems pretty evident that team president Brendan Shanahan is fully onboard with it.  They’ve fully committed to going the way they have with so much of their cap space tied up in four forwards so unless things really go completely off the rails next season, I don’t sense his job is in any jeopardy.

I also don’t expect things to go off the rails.  I like the addition of T.J. Brodie into their top four defensively and while they’ve certainly gotten older and slower up front, guys like Wayne Simmonds, Joe Thornton, and Jason Spezza don’t have to do much to provide value on their deals.  Considering the minimal cap room they had to work with, Toronto has assembled a relatively good bottom-six group.  If it winds up being an all-Canadian division as it appears it’s going to be, they’re going to be right in the mix.

At some point, yes, the core is going to have to show they can get the job done in the playoffs but I think that breaking point is still a couple of years away.  At that point, Dubas will have had to re-sign or replace Frederik Andersen and Morgan Rielly and that will have a big impact on the roster composition at that time.  If they’re still not over the hump by then, then it may be time to wonder about his future but that’s not on the immediate horizon.

Dtownwarrior78: At the pace they are going now, how long do you see it taking for the Red Wings to truly become potential Cup challengers again? Anytime within the next 3 years or longer? At least competitive for a playoff spot?

It wouldn’t shock me if they’re three years away from a playoff spot, let alone Cup contention.  While lottery luck hasn’t landed them a top pick, there’s a decent core emerging with Lucas Raymond, Filip Zadina, Moritz Seider, and even Michael Rasmussen and Joe Veleno.  None of them is a franchise player but that’s the making of a solid group, especially with Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha in the fold as well.

My concern is their defense and goaltending, however.  Seider should be good and Filip Hronek is quite underrated.  But after that, there are a lot of question marks.  Between the pipes, there’s no starter of the future in the system.  That’s at least a piece that can be signed in free agency but if they’re envisioning Thomas Greiss as their starter while he’s under contract, they’re not going to be a significant postseason threat.  Until they add another core defender and a proven number one goalie, they’re not going to be in contention, even as their young group of forwards develops and improves.

M34: Avs defense. After the sure-fire big-time contract that Makar is going to get, and with Byram and Timmins expected to take big steps forward this season or next, then adding in the flat or potentially decreasing cap situation, how does Sakic make this work, both on the books and on the ice?

Let’s tackle the second part first.  Conor Timmins could very well start in the minors if Ian Cole shifts over to his off side which isn’t going to help his contract demands.  Bowen Byram is also good enough to start in the NHL but playing time on the left side behind Samuel Girard, Devon Toews, and Ryan Graves is going to be hard to come by.  So in the short-term, the on-ice solution is simply to send them down – Timmins to the Eagles and Byram back to junior.  Eventually, they’ll have to trade someone out (even with Cole’s deal expiring next offseason) but that’s something to ponder next offseason at the earliest.

Timmins is a restricted free agent next offseason like Cale Makar and is probably looking at a one-year deal near the qualifying offer amount or a two-year contract just over $1MM.  That’s not hard to fit in either way.  Byram is three years away from his next contract (four if his deal slides next season) and by then, Erik Johnson and his $6MM will be coming off the books although a big chunk of his money is heading for Nathan MacKinnon.

The biggest question in the short-term is can they afford to re-sign Makar and still have enough to keep Gabriel Landeskog around plus have room to pay a starting goalie?  (Brandon Saad may want to stay there long term but that doesn’t appear palatable unless the captain leaves.)   That will take some careful financial planning but in terms of their other young defenders, Colorado is in good shape for eventually bringing them into the fold and fitting them in under their cap structure.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Anaheim Ducks

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Anaheim Ducks

Current Cap Hit: $82,429,999 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Max Jones (one year, $863K)
F Sam Steel (one year, $863K)

Both Steel and Jones were selected as first-round picks with the hopes that they’d become key contributors one day.  That hasn’t happened just yet as both have struggled at times in the NHL.  Steel, a prolific point producer in junior, managed just 22 points in 66 games last season while Jones had only a dozen in 59 contests and was briefly sent to the minors as a result.  The 22-year-olds are still certainly part of GM Bob Murray’s long-term plans but neither of them appears to be in line for a notable raise on their entry-level salaries.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F David Backes ($4.5MM, UFA)*
D Christian Djoos ($1MM, RFA)
F Ryan Getzlaf ($8.25MM, UFA)
F Danton Heinen ($2.8MM, RFA)
F Carter Rowney ($1.133MM, UFA)

* – Boston is retaining another $1.5MM on Backes’ contract

Statistically speaking, it was Getzlaf’s worst offensive year of his career as his 0.61 points per game average was a career-low.  Also statistically speaking, he was one point off the team lead in scoring with 13 goals and 29 assists.  Needless to say, that is not production worthy of that price tag but it’s also quite clear that Getzlaf’s next deal isn’t going to come anywhere near that.  The 35-year-old made it clear last season that he had no interested in being traded so it stands to reason that his intention will be to remain with Anaheim once this contract ends.  His next deal will carry 35+ implications (unless the salary is evenly spread) but something in the $4MM to $5MM range – second-line money – may be palatable to both sides.

Heinen and Backes were brought in from Boston in separate trades but for entirely different reasons.  While Backes was salary ballast in the Ondrej Kase swap where a first-round pick was the key to the deal and likely won’t be back, Heinen was brought in to be a secondary scorer for the Ducks.  While the pandemic makes it a limited sample size, he wasn’t producing at much higher of a rate than he was with the Bruins.  If that happens again next season, he could be a non-tender candidate over giving him a $2.775MM qualifying offer and arbitration rights.  If he performs closer to his rookie-season rate though, something in the $4MM range is possible.  Rowney and Djoos are likely to be role players next season and while Rowney will likely be looking at a pay cut in his next trip through free agency, the 26-year-old Djoos could set himself up nicely if he can hold down a regular spot in the lineup which could give him a shot at doubling his price tag.

Two Years Remaining

D Kodie Curran ($1MM, UFA)
F Nicolas Deslauriers ($1MM, UFA)
F Ryan Kesler ($6.875MM, UFA)
D Jacob Larsson ($1.2MM, RFA)
D Hampus Lindholm ($5.206MM, UFA)
D Josh Manson ($4.1MM, UFA)
F Sonny Milano ($1.7MM, RFA)
F Rickard Rakell ($3.789MM, UFA)

Two years ago, Rakell was one of the bigger bargains in the league after putting up a 34-goal season.  He hasn’t scored that many in the last two seasons combined.  Along the way, he has gone from being a top liner to more of a secondary scorer.  He’ll be 29 when he hits free agency and by then, the hope is the cap ceiling will be up, albeit only slightly.  If he wants a shot at really cashing in though, he’ll need to back to his 2016-17 and 2017-18 output.  Milano didn’t look out of place in nine games after being acquired which earned him a bit of job security but will need to take another step forward over the next two seasons if he wants to be tendered a $1.8MM qualifying offer.  As for Deslauriers, his role on the fourth line is relatively secure for the time being but as the cap crunch continues to be felt around the league, even $1MM may be tough to get two years from now.

Then there’s Kesler.  He last played on March 6, 2019 and isn’t likely to play again due to lingering hip issues.  He’s eligible to be placed on LTIR which will allow Anaheim to spend over the cap (by up to his $6.875MM price tag depending on what their roster is before they place him there) which will allow them to comfortably get into cap compliance for next season without having to make any cost-cutting moves.

On the back end, Lindholm has never been able to become a top offensive threat but he has still been a quality top-pairing player over the last few years.  Even in this most recent free agent class, top defensemen still received sizable raises and if he gets to the open market two years from now, Lindholm will certainly be in line for one as well.  Manson signed his deal two seasons ago following a breakout year offensively but his production has plummeted since then.  He’s still an effective second pairing player that provides some grit but he’s someone that could feel the squeeze a little bit on the 2022 market if he isn’t able to put up a few more points between now and then.  Curran, a rookie who will turn 31 before next season starts and Larsson both will be trying to lock down full-time spots which will ultimately determine if they’re able to get a raise on their next deals or be settling for sixth or seventh defender money.

Three Years Remaining

F Derek Grant ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Troy Terry ($1.45MM, RFA)
D Kevin Shattenkirk ($3.9MM, UFA)

Grant finished fourth on the Ducks in goals last season despite missing a dozen games to a shoulder injury and several more after being traded to Philadelphia.  That was enough to earn him a small raise and a three-year deal in what is his third stint with Anaheim.  Unless he can get closer to the 20-goal mark though, it’s unlikely that another raise is on the horizon.  Terry is another youngster that hasn’t quite been able to make a consistent impact in the NHL but Anaheim opted to give him a bit of a raise in exchange for a term that’s a bit longer than a bridge deal.  There is some upside with this deal and if he is able to become a regular producer, doubling this price tag will certainly be an option.

Shattenkirk had a resurgent season with the Stanley Cup champions in Tampa Bay and was able to be one of the few players to land a contract greater than our initial projections when he was slotted 17th in our free agent rankings.  He should step into a top-four role and provide a good return in that role but he will need to stay in the 30-point range to have a chance at landing a similar-priced contract in 2023.

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Islanders Are Facing A Cap Crunch

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On the surface, having nearly $4MM in cap space to work with (per CapFriendly) would seem like a good thing for the Islanders.  Many teams don’t have anywhere near that type of room and would love to have that situation.  Of course, it isn’t quite that simple as New York still has their top forward in Mathew Barzal to re-sign and it’s doubtful that he’d simply settle for whatever room they have left.

While the 23-year-old technically had the lowest point total of his career last season, he still managed 19 goals and 41 assists in 68 games and is their number one center.  Even without the realistic threat of an offer sheet (given how few teams have the cap space available to try to sign Barzal at a price point that wouldn’t be matched), he still certainly has enough leverage to secure a sizable contract.

The recent settlement with defenseman Ryan Pulock opened up a second buyout window but given that most of their higher-priced talent that have underachieved have come with virtual buyout-proof deals based on how the contracts were structured, that was never really an option to use.  Those struggles in performance also makes finding a taker for defenseman Johnny Boychuk ($6MM) or winger Andrew Ladd ($5.5MM) extremely difficult.

Even players whose cap hits were under the second buyout threshold in wingers Cal Clutterbuck ($3.5MM) and Leo Komarov ($3MM) will be difficult as teams that are looking for grit can sign a free agent for much less than they’re making.  One of those is Matt Martin, a player they’d like to bring back but they need to get Barzal signed first.  Meanwhile, most of the more expensive veterans that would have some trade value are the ones that GM Lou Lamoriello will want to keep around although blueliner Nick Leddy ($5.5MM) could be deemed expendable.

One possible way to mitigate the situation is to focus on a short-term deal with Barzal.  A one-year pact would put his cap hit lower than it would on a multi-year contract and while it does take him to salary arbitration eligibility, anything under three years would do that anyway.  (Four years or more would take him to UFA status.)  While that typically isn’t an ideal option for a top young player, this isn’t a typical situation given that a lot of contracts for notable players have come in lower than expected.  As far as looking to cash in with a long-term, big-money contract goes, this probably isn’t the right time to do so.

But even that won’t solve the problem completely as again, Barzal is likely to get more than what New York has left in cap space so some sort of move has to be made.  They can open up a bit more wiggle room by carrying a minimum-sized roster but even if that leaves enough to get him in on a one-year pact, it leaves them quite vulnerable in terms of not having much room for recalls which, in a season that’s expected to be somewhat compressed with plenty of back-to-back situations, is hardly ideal.

Accordingly, it appears as if the Islanders will be joining the list of teams that are looking to free up some cap room between now and the start of the 2020-21 campaign, whenever it may be.  Of course, that’s something that’s a lot easier said than done this offseason.

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