Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

PHR Panel: Offer Sheet Opining

September 3, 2021 at 2:46 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 10 Comments

Tomorrow, there is a deadline for the Montreal Canadiens to decide whether or not to match the offer sheet signed by Jesperi Kotkaniemi and the Carolina Hurricanes. The decision they have is a simple one on its face–pay Kotkaniemi $6.1MM for the 2021-22 season, or take Carolina’s first- and third-round picks to let him go.

But it’s much more than just a one-year decision and it has implications that reach much further than just one player. Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin has been completely silent since the agreement was announced just under a week ago, though there has been some reporting that the team is testing the market on replacement options should Kotkaniemi end up in Carolina.

With this uncommon situation, we’ve decided to unearth one of our former features: The PHR Panel. This time we’re welcoming Josh Erickson to the panel after he joined PHR earlier this offseason, but I, Brian La Rose, and Zach Leach will all give our thoughts as normal on what Montreal should do.

Q: Should Montreal match the Jesperi Kotkaniemi offer sheet?

Brian La Rose:

There are two key questions where the answer determines what Montreal should do. Is there a capable second-line center that can be acquired via trade that will be around for more than a year or two? Also, if there is indeed the possibility of an extension below that AAV with Carolina as has been suggested including by Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman on the latest 31 Thoughts podcast, is that also available to Montreal?

If they are unable to land an impact center elsewhere, they may have to bite the bullet as their younger internal options aren’t ready to step into that type of role; the Jonathan Drouin experiment didn’t work the last time they tried it and there’s no reason to think it will now. And on the extension front, if there’s an acceptable one that can effectively be worked out – nothing can be made official until January – then matching for this season knowing a better contract is on the horizon becomes more palatable.

If there’s a reasonable trade waiting for Bergevin that lands him a capable second center behind Nick Suzuki, then walking away and taking the two picks makes sense. Otherwise, with how weak their depth down the middle would be (and there aren’t any impact centers in the pipeline either), they may very well have to match despite the overpayment and the potential for a much messier cap situation moving forward. With things dragging out this long, it doesn’t seem like a viable trade is presenting itself so matching starts to look a bit more viable as a result for the Canadiens but it will undoubtedly be a tough pill to swallow.

Zach Leach:

The Canadiens should match the Kotkaniemi offer sheet. Yes, it may not be the more reasonable of the two choices, but then again this was not a reasonable move in the first place. The Hurricanes clearly have interest in Kotkaniemi, but this offer sheet is all about revenge and embarrassment. Carolina made that perfectly clear with the manner in which they announced and subsequently responded to the news of the offer sheet on social media. If Montreal does not match the offer, then they are making the Hurricanes just the second team to successfully offer sheet a player since the turn of the century. They are admitting that Carolina did a better job of poaching a young impact player than they did two years ago. They are surrendering.

Even if Kotkaniemi is not worth $6.1MM, which no one believes that he is right now, the Canadiens are giving up a promising, 21-year-old prospect who they selected with the No. 3 pick just three years ago, and moreover, he is going to what is suddenly a bitter rival. The Hurricanes may already have a handshake agreement on a more accurately-priced extension with Koktaniemi as well. The young center has tremendous possession numbers, has shown flashes of immense scoring ability, and is filling out his frame and becoming a more physical presence. Kotkaniemi could still be a star in the NHL, even if the early results at a very young age have been unspectacular. He is certainly worth more than late first- and third-round picks, especially to a Montreal team that is thin down the middle. Even if the Canadiens flip that draft pick compensation for a replacement for Kotkaniemi, they are doing so with the rest of the league knowing exactly what is going on and will not receive fair value and likely not adequately address the departure.

Sure, there are serious cap implications for the Canadiens. However, in the short term, they can make room for Kotkaniemi to begin the year, even with a full 23-man roster, by placing Shea Weber on LTIR and burying Paul Byron and Cedric Paquette. Montreal could also keep Kotkaniemi, a center they desperately need, and instead trade a superfluous winger such as Artturi Lehkonen. Might things be tight, short-term and long-term, by accommodating Kotkaniemi’s cap hit? Definitely. But if the Hurricanes are willing to make adjustments, then so too should the Canadiens. Allowing Kotkaniemi to walk and replacing him with another high-cost trade acquisition doesn’t make much cap sense either.

Any result in which the Canadiens do not match the offer sheet is a win for the Hurricanes and a loss for the Canadiens, and frankly, Montreal needs a win. This all began with a poorly constructed offer sheet two years ago for Sebastian Aho that ended up being a favor to the Hurricanes. A better offer could have landed the team the franchise center that they have been looking for. Montreal moved on, made different choices with their forwards, and surprised everyone with a run to the Stanley Cup this season. However, they fell short and now are set to return to the lion’s den that is the Atlantic Division with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Florida Panthers. Their off-season has been defined by a controversial draft choice and several free agent contracts whose values were worthy of skepticism. The Canadiens do not need another blemish this season. Maybe Kotkaniemi doesn’t pan out in the long term, but this is about more than just one player. It is about the image of the club and the morale in the locker room. The Canadiens need to assert themselves and demand some respect when the Hurricanes showed little. They can do that by matching the offer.

Josh Erickson:

There are so many reasons why Montreal’s matching of the Kotkaniemi offer sheet would be completely nonsensical.

Cap space is the most obvious and pressing issue. While Montreal could currently accomodate Kotkaniemi’s $6.1MM cap hit with their LTIR situation, they wouldn’t be able to all season. Byron won’t be out the entire year and will come off LTIR at some point, leaving only Weber’s $7.85MM cap hit on LTIR. With Montreal already spending $2.27MM into their LTIR pool, an additional $6.1MM caused by Kotkaniemi wouldn’t make the team cap-compliant. Even as it stands, Montreal’s active roster only has 19 skaters (Chris Wideman being the likely healthy scratch).

It also doesn’t make a lot of sense to drastically change the team’s makeup to retain Kotkaniemi. The team’s demonstrated a commitment to head coach Dominique Ducharme, who hasn’t developed the best relationship with Kotkaniemi at this point in his career. Selling off assets in order to retain a player who’s future with the club remains uncertain past this season, especially one with a $6.1MM qualifying offer, doesn’t seem like the best position to take from an asset management standpoint.

It all stands to say that the first- and third-round picks are far more valuable to the team at this point in time than Kotkaniemi at a $6.1MM cap hit and qualifying offer. There’s no guarantee that Montreal would be able to receive that return for Kotkaniemi in a future trade.

Gavin Lee:

As you can see from my colleagues, this situation has produced drastically different opinions. That’s exactly what a well-constructed offer sheet is supposed to do; make it a difficult decision on the original team, who then will have to take a gamble one way or the other. There’s no clear answer here for the Canadiens like there was with the Aho offer sheet two years ago.

The simple fact is that Montreal is trying to win right now. You don’t go out and sign Mike Hoffman and David Savard if you’re willing to spend a year developing young talent. The Canadiens want to give Carey Price the best chance to win a Stanley Cup right now, and frankly, I don’t see how letting Kotkaneimi walk helps in that pursuit. Unless there is a legitimate difference-maker out there that you think you can land with those additional assets–someone like Jack Eichel–sure, let him walk and flip the picks. But if you’re going to turn around and trade for someone like Christian Dvorak? Just match the offer and take your chances with an extension negotiation down the road.

The idea that Kotkaniemi is a bust is misguided. If anything, it’s just that his development was rushed by the Canadiens in the first place due to how much they believed in his talent. He turned 21 in July and has already played in 200 NHL games, including 29 postseason contests. He may never become the Anze Kopitar that people compared him to in his draft year–which was always a bit ridiculous–but the idea that he’ll never become more than a third-line center is still very premature.

There is also a mechanism that could get the $6.1MM qualifying offer down a bit, though that may provide little comfort to fans that have already made up their mind on Kotkaniemi. If he fails to live up to that kind of a contract, the Canadiens could elect salary arbitration in the usually unused first window in lieu of a qualifying offer and retain his rights with 85%–$5.185MM–of his contract value. Suddenly that becomes a little more palatable, though it can only be done once in a player’s career and it doesn’t guarantee that salary.

It’s not a situation I’d want to be in, but unless Montreal has a replacement–and a good one, not just a middle-six player–waiting in the wings, they should match the offer.

Poll: Should The Canadiens Match The Jesperi Kotkaniemi Offer Sheet?

August 31, 2021 at 1:33 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 28 Comments

The biggest news in the hockey world right now is the offer sheet that the Carolina Hurricanes signed with Jesperi Kotkaniemi. The Montreal Canadiens have just a few more days to decide whether or not to match the one-year $6.1MM contract and keep Kotaniemi or let him go to the Hurricanes in exchange for first- and third-round picks.

The decision, some say, is an easy one—it’s the answer that many disagree on.

The Canadiens could just wave goodbye, collect their picks and go after another center, knowing that Kotkaniemi is not worth anywhere near that $6.1MM price tag this season. The deal would force either team to extend a qualifying offer of the same amount moving forward, though if the player is willing, an extension could also be worked out at a lower number. Two picks could help Montreal in a search for a different player, with many pointing to Jack Eichel as the name they could pursue with some added draft capital.

Because he has disappointed up until now, it’s easy to forget just how young and talented Kotkaniemi is. He turned 21 just last month and already has 200 NHL games under his belt. He has scored just 84 points in those games, including 12 in 29 postseason appearances, but there is obviously room to grow. Even if he was perhaps a mistake at third-overall in 2018–the existence of Brady Tkachuk and Quinn Hughes would certainly argue so–that doesn’t mean he’s a worthless asset. In fact, it seems likely that the Canadiens could have gotten at least a late-first and a third for him had they decided to trade Kotkaneimi this offseason, probably more.

But now that the Hurricanes have forced their hand, it’s one or the other. Overpay a player who has not lived up to the hype to this point and is obviously not fully trusted by the coaching staff, or take that package (and only that package) as compensation. If they do match it, Montreal can’t trade Kotkaniemi for a year, meaning there’s no sign-and-flip coming.

For whatever you think of the player, it’s not easy to watch a third-overall pick walk out the door just six weeks after his 21st birthday. There’s a very real chance that Kotkaniemi not only lives up to his billing as a top-six center, but he could still be exactly what the Canadiens are looking for as a long-term complement to Nick Suzuki down the middle.

It’s not an easy decision for Montreal GM Marc Bergevin, but perhaps it is for you! Cast your vote below and explain your thoughts in the comment section.

Should Montreal match the Kotkaniemi offer sheet?

No 83.05% (2,749 votes)

Yes 16.95% (561 votes)

Total Votes: 3,310

[Mobile users click here to vote!]

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Washington Capitals

August 30, 2021 at 7:38 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Washington Capitals

Current Cap Hit: $80,831,260 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Connor McMichael ($863K through 2023-24)

McMichael was able to get his feet wet in the pros a year early with the OHL not playing and he made the most of it with a strong showing with AHL Hershey. He may have to wait until injuries strike to have a shot at playing but he has enough offensive upside to make an impact when he gets his opportunity next season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Nic Dowd ($750K, UFA)
D Matt Irwin ($750K, UFA)
D Michal Kempny ($2.5MM, UFA)
G Ilya Samsonov ($2MM, RFA)
D Justin Schultz ($4MM, UFA)
F Daniel Sprong ($725K, RFA)
G Vitek Vanecek ($717K, RFA)

Sprong has been inconsistent throughout his career but his AAV being below the cap ceiling creates some excess value for Washington to the point where he was protected in expansion. He has reached double digits in goals in two of the last three seasons and a repeat showing next season could push him towards doubling his AAV or more which could ultimately price him out of their plans. Dowd has done a nice job as their fourth line center but while he’s deserving of a raise, the Caps will need to keep that position at that price point to be able to afford their other contracts.

Schultz’s contract with Washington was somewhat of a surprise last fall but he had a nice bounce-back season. A big raise next summer likely isn’t in the cards but if he can pick up the points at a similar level, he could land a similarly-priced deal. Kempny had a year to forget, tearing his Achilles’ tendon and just as he was working his way towards a return in the minors, he was struck by an ice shoveler during a break in play, ending his season in the process. He was providing pretty good value on his contract before that and will need to get back to a similar level and show he’s healthy in order to command interest next summer. Irwin appears to be a candidate to bounce around as the seventh defenseman and the minors (pending him clearing waivers) as a way to bank a bit of extra room as the season progresses.

Samsonov had a tough sophomore year and with their salary cap situation, Washington was forced to go with a one-year bridge contract. He will be eligible for arbitration next summer and a strong season could allow him to double his AAV or more. Vanecek was re-acquired from Seattle and returns as arguably the biggest value contract for goaltenders in the league as he established himself as their starter last season at a price that is the lowest in the league in terms of AAV. Also arbitration-eligible, he’s already heading for a significant raise and it’s quite unlikely that Washington will be able to keep both netminders beyond this coming season.

Two Years Remaining

F Lars Eller ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Carl Hagelin ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Garnet Hathaway ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Nick Jensen ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Dmitry Orlov ($5.1MM, UFA)
F Conor Sheary ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Trevor van Riemsdyk ($950K, UFA)

Eller has been a key part of Washington’s forward group for the past five seasons, splitting time between the second line and third line depending on their injury situation. He’s a bit pricey on the third line but it’s a justifiable premium to pay and with the way the UFA market has been for centers, he can land a similar amount two years from now. Hagelin has underwhelmed a little bit on this deal; he’s still an effective defensive player and a strong skater but his price tag is a bit much for someone in a limited role. Hathaway’s physicality makes him a quality fourth liner and while he’s a bit expensive for that role, he has provided good value so far. Sheary’s first season with Washington went well enough to land this two-year deal as a secondary scorer. If he scores at a 20-goal pace again, this will be a nice bargain for them.

Orlov had a bit of a tough season but is still a fixture in their top four. He’ll be 32 when his next deal kicks in and it wouldn’t be surprising if he is looking for a final contract at that time. With the big commitments they already have on the books (more on them shortly), that may be difficult for Washington to do unless Orlov will take a discount to make that happen. Jensen hasn’t been able to make the type of impact the Capitals hoped when they handed him this four-year deal and he’s someone they’d likely be willing to part with for cap flexibility purposes. As for van Riemsdyk, he spent a lot of last season in the press box but is a capable depth piece at a low price tag which helped him get protected from Seattle.

Three Years Remaining

F Anthony Mantha ($5.7MM, UFA)
F Tom Wilson ($5.166MM, UFA)

Mantha was a bit of a surprising acquisition at the trade deadline with Washington paying a fairly high price to get him from Detroit (and clear out the rest of Richard Panik’s contract). He made a good first impression but has been inconsistent for most of his career. He will need to improve on that front if he wants a shot at a bigger contract in free agency. When it comes to Wilson, his price tag looked excessive early on but with the way the market for power forwards has been (in part because of this deal), it holds up better now, especially since he’s frequently deployed in the top six. But with his frequent near-misses with the Department of Player Safety, there will always be some risk when it comes to him potentially crossing the line and landing a hefty suspension that wouldn’t allow the Capitals to bring up a replacement with how tight they are to the Upper Limit.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Nicklas Backstrom ($9.2MM through 2024-25)
D John Carlson ($8MM through 2025-26)
F Evgeny Kuznetsov ($7.8MM through 2024-25)
F T.J. Oshie ($5.75MM through 2024-25)
F Alex Ovechkin ($9.5MM through 2025-26)

While it took a bit longer than some expected, Ovechkin was able to agree on a deal that will give him a legitimate shot at the all-time scoring record. It’s possible that it will be a bit on the pricey side by the time it comes to an end as he creeps closer to turning 40 but even if that happens, I don’t think there will be many bemoaning the contract. Like Ovechkin, Backstrom negotiated his own deal, one that makes him one of the top-paid centers in the league. As long as he can play at an above-average level for a top liner, he’ll provide a good return on his contract but if he has to drop down the level, it will quickly become an overpayment.

Kuznetsov is someone whose value has taken a tumble over the last year. His production had ticked down the last couple of years before last season which saw another drop in per-game production and a couple of stints on the CPRA list. His price tag is basically what some number one centers make and they’re paying a hefty premium to have him playing behind Backstrom but they will need more bang for their buck from him. As for Oshie, the fall-off that some have speculated would come hasn’t happened yet as the veteran continues to produce at close to a top line rate. As long as that keeps happening, they’ll be content with the contract.

When Carlson signed his contract, there was some risk in that he became one of the highest-paid defensemen in the league after only one high-end offensive season. Was his offensive jump sustainable that long into his career? Clearly, the answer is yes as he beat that output the next two years and was one of the top-scoring blueliners last season while being dependable in his own zone. As other veteran blueliners have signed for bigger contracts in recent years, this deal has gone from a question mark to a team-friendly steal in the process.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Vanecek
Worst Value: Kuznetsov

Looking Ahead

Based on their current roster, it’s safe to say that Washington will be carrying close to the minimum-sized roster most nights in an effort to preserve what little cap space they have. Irwin will likely be waived and shuffled back and forth but their only waiver-exempt player is Samsonov so at some point, he may have to be papered down a few times as well. Injuries will probably eat up what little space they have so it should be a fairly quiet season on the transactions front. Of course, the same thing could have been said last year and GM Brian MacLellan went and made the biggest splash of the trade deadline.

When it comes to their long-term roster planning, the lack of flexibility is going to become a problem as soon as next season as it’s unlikely they’ll be able to keep both goalies. The following year, keeping Orlov could be tricky. With a veteran core and a bigger cap crunch on the horizon, this coming season may be their best shot at contention before a piece here and a piece there will have to be taken away.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag: Sabres Rebuild, Rangers, Eichel, Sorokin, Predators, Breakout Candidates, Remorseful Moves, Dzingel

August 28, 2021 at 4:01 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 5 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Buffalo’s rebuilding process, the pursuit of Jack Eichel from the Rangers and if Detroit should be in the mix, a proposed offer sheet, Nashville’s underwhelming summer, under the radar breakout candidates, moves that general managers may one day wish they had a mulligan on, and where Ryan Dzingel landed in free agency. If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

LarryJ4: What Adams has done with the Sabres roster seems to be geared towards clearing out the losing mentality of certain players would you agree? Complete reset so to speak and hear up a rebuild what he feels is the right way. The previous 2 GMs failed to bring in players that their character properly fit the “retool/rebuild” mode of a team. Granted the last one was brought in by Adams, being Taylor Hall, but that seems like a knee jerk reaction by Adams facing pressure from Ownership that appears clueless.

Second question is do you think Adams has the invisible “handcuffs” off of him this go around?

I don’t know if I’d go as far as saying the rebuild is built on trying to clear out anyone with a losing mentality. Everyone on the Sabres for an extended period has been through plenty of losing so it could be suggested they all have had that particular mentality ingrained in them over the years.

This feels like a situation where they finally realized that they’re not just a player or two away from becoming contenders and trying to add that piece each year becomes futile after a while. Their captain isn’t coming back anytime soon, if at all, further pushing them in that direction. In that case, selling off the players who were nearing unrestricted free agency was the logical next step. Rasmus Ristolainen and Sam Reinhart probably weren’t signing new long-term deals with Buffalo so they pretty much had to go.

As for the handcuffs, that’s always difficult to speculate on as owners have differing levels of involvement throughout the league but this is the type of rebuild that requires ownership signing off on. The fact that GM Keyvn Adams has made the moves he has made suggests he has received the commitment and green light to see this process through.

CoachWall: Now that we know Eichel is going to miss the first month or so, have the Rangers pivoted to re-upping Z-dad?

In the context of this question, I’m going to say no. Not having Eichel available for the start of next season shouldn’t drastically affect how much they want him. He has five years left on his deal so missing 15-20 games at the start of that span shouldn’t discourage them from going after him when the potential for four-plus years of a number one center is still there.

At this point, GM Chris Drury should be working both fronts. He can keep inquiring on Eichel to see if the price will eventually change while at the same time doing his due diligence in terms of what it will cost to keep Zibanejad around; Eichel not being ready to start the year shouldn’t push Drury down a path he should already be on. Both aren’t going to be doable but it doesn’t mean discussions can’t be done for both options at the same time so that the Rangers can make one of the two moves when the time is right.

gowings2008: The Red Wings lack a true number one center, is it possible they are secretly in on Eichel? He fits their core group in terms of age and the Wings have the cap space to fit him in. I know the Red Wings have rarely leaked any rumors under Yzerman, but this is an opportunity that rarely presents itself and they have the pieces, I would think, to make it work.

You make a very reasonable case for Detroit to go down this path and I agree that they probably have the assets to make a trade work. But the timing doesn’t feel right to me.

GM Steve Yzerman’s offseason was all about adding bridge pieces. Nick Leddy is someone that could be flipped later in the year, Alex Nedeljkovic only received a two-year deal that walks him to UFA eligibility (and there are questions about whether or not he can be an NHL starter) while up front, Pius Suter was the only addition of note, also receiving a two-year deal that takes him back to UFA status. To drastically shift towards trying to win now runs counterintuitive to what they’ve done the last few months.

I’ll put it this way. If Detroit was in on Eichel, making a move before the draft would have been the right time to do it. Then they’d have been more aggressive in terms of trying to add more proven win-now talent via trade and free agency and really emerge from the rebuild. But if Yzerman still thinks they’re a couple of years away from doing that (and his activity the last two months suggests that’s the case), then the high cost to acquire Eichel would be a little harder to justify since he alone wouldn’t make them a playoff team and there aren’t any notable free agents left that they could try to add after landing Eichel.

I actually quite like the idea of Eichel in Detroit but I think the right time for that was two months ago, not now.

Robert Evans Jr.: Why doesn’t Buffalo just offer sheet Sorokin for $4.11 million a year for five or six years to be the goalie of the future??

I’m glad you mentioned five or six years in the question as it gives me a chance to highlight a rule that often gets missed. For offer sheet purposes, the maximum divisor is five, even if the term of the contract is longer. Accordingly, while a five-year offer sheet at $4.11MM per year would yield a second-rounder, the six-year term would actually push him up a tier to the first-rounder plus a third-rounder. The total compensation for that offer would be $24.66MM with the maximum divisor at five. That means for offer sheet compensation purposes, his AAV would be $4.93MM (even though the AAV of the contract is still $4.11MM).

With that said, there are a couple of reasons that Ilya Sorokin won’t sign that contract. First, he would actually have to want to sign that deal to go to Buffalo and with the direction the Sabres are going, they’re not exactly going to be a desirable destination for a little bit. The second is that he probably has already agreed to terms with the Islanders as GM Lou Lamoriello has a whole bunch of deals done that haven’t been announced yet. The fact that Sorokin didn’t file for arbitration feels like a strong sign that his contract is among those in place that we’ll officially find out about at some point in the next six weeks.

Gbear: Rhetorical question, but how does subtracting Viktor Arvidsson and Calle Jarnkrok and adding Philip Tomasino and Cody Glass to an already paltry offense in Nashville improve their goal-scoring output?

Rhetorical or not, I’ll answer anyway. It really doesn’t help them although with the way David Poile has built his team this summer, it sure looks like they’re a team that’s looking at some short-term pain (and salary savings) for long-term gain.

If they kept their core intact and still brought Glass in, we’d be talking about him playing in the minors and waiting for a recall. By moving Arvidsson to the Kings and losing Jarnkrok to Seattle, now there’s a defined spot on the third line for Glass for him to get a more consistent chance that he had with Vegas last season. Considering Nashville’s long-standing need for help down the middle, it only made sense to add someone like Glass if they had a chance to play him.

Tomasino looks like he’s ready to contribute based on his play as an underager in the AHL last year. I’m not as bullish on them seemingly keeping a roster spot for him as a 20-year-old but it certainly feels like they want to get his NHL experience started quickly in the hopes of expediting his development.

Are the Predators better now than they were last season? Certainly not. So if they’re going to be rebuilding, they might as well get the youngsters some playing time in a role where they’ll have a chance to succeed right away. If the development of Glass and Tomasino (among other youngsters) next season is bolstered, the long-term improvement should outweigh the short-term drop in production that is certainly coming.

Nha Trang: There’s always the ‘Guy Who Comes Out Of Nowhere’ to dish out the unexpected career year. Who are the best candidates for that this season?

For these types of exercises, a lot of it comes down to projecting the depth charts and looking for someone that’s going to receive a much bigger role than he did the year before. Here are two that come to mind.

F Alex Barre-Boulet (Tampa Bay) – He scored a lot in junior his last season, earning himself an NHL contract. He then lit up the minors for two years. Barre-Boulet has been limited to spot minutes so far but with the turnover Tampa Bay has had, there are opportunities for him to step into a bigger offensive role and history suggests he’ll be capable of producing. A jump in production is expected but I think many will be surprised by how big of one it will be.

F Tage Thompson (Buffalo) – It has been a rough few years since being traded to the Sabres and his role has largely been limited. But as a result of some of the departures (and expected departures to come), there is a path to a top-six role for Thompson. If he can earn that spot, he could go from someone that has been viewed as a bit of a bust so far to a capable secondary scorer with size in short order.

There are plenty of obvious breakout candidates based on young players continuing to progress or players finding a bigger opportunity in free agency but if you’re looking for someone that’s going to be a bit more under the radar and still make that jump, these two fit the bill.

Joe422: Looking back in a few years, who has buyers’ remorse? It could be a free agent signing, an extension for their own player or a trade.

I’ll limit myself to moves made in 2021 to avoid the low-hanging fruit like Jeff Skinner’s extension.

On the free agent front, I don’t think Seattle is going to like the Jaden Schwartz signing before too long. He’s not a primary scorer and hasn’t done well in that role. He’s coming off a tough year and will now go into the role where he has struggled before with linemates that aren’t as good as he had in St. Louis. He’ll put up some points but that contract could be an overpayment fairly quickly.

I also think the Kings may have buyers’ remorse on Phillip Danault. There’s no denying he’s a high-end defensive center but can he produce enough to justify that contract? That I’m not so sure about. Also, how long will he have the role that justifies a $5.5MM price tag? He’s not passing Anze Kopitar on the depth chart and they have Gabriel Vilardi, Alex Turcotte, Quinton Byfield, and Rasmus Kupari – all first-round picks – behind him. At some point in the near future, they’re going to push Danault onto the third line – the role he didn’t want in Montreal which largely resulted in his departure – and in doing so, making the contract an overpayment.

On the trade front, the Oliver Ekman-Larsson trade is one that Vancouver may regret a few months into next season let alone a few years from now if his struggles from last season carry over. Taking on that long term of a commitment with so many other young core players needing contracts between now and the end of the 2026-27 season when Ekman-Larsson’s deal ends was a largely unnecessary move. Sure, their playoff fortunes for next season are better but let’s see who it costs them in the end. Chances are, who they lose will be more impactful than what Ekman-Larsson will be able to provide at that stage of his career.

Then there’s Seth Jones. In a vacuum, adding him to Chicago’s back end is a big help. But they paid a big price to get him and a whopper of a price to extend him. Short of him becoming a top-five defenseman in the league, the combination of asset price and contract cost isn’t going to hold up particularly well down the road. They certainly will get a big boost in the short term, however.

@roweron: Did the Sens take back Dzingel??

I wouldn’t have been surprised had Ottawa re-signed Ryan Dzingel but he is off to the Western Conference. His deal was among the ridiculously high number of signings on the opening day of free agency as he inked a one-year, $1.1MM contract with Arizona. With the state of their depth chart, it’s a reasonable choice for Dzingel who should have some more stability than he had throughout his time in Carolina as he looks to rebuild his value for another crack at the open market next summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Jason Demers

August 28, 2021 at 1:51 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

In his prime, Jason Demers was a capable second pairing defenseman that was reliable in his own end and could contribute a little bit offensively. Those days have come and gone but the veteran can still make a case to be brought in as a serviceable option on the third pairing.

Unfortunately, the 33-year-old will be relying on his track record over his career to make that claim, not his performance last season. There’s no sugar coating it – 2020-21 wasn’t pretty. Demers slipped down the depth chart to the third pairing, averaged his lowest ice time in nearly a decade, and eventually found himself scratched with some frequency down the stretch with Arizona well out of playoff contention.

But while it’s certainly reasonable to consider that this is a sign of things to come, Demers was in a top-four role as recently as 2019-20 where he was a fixture on Arizona’s penalty kill and logging more than 20 minutes per game. It’s unlikely he’ll get back to that form but players don’t often drop from being a top-four blueliner to borderline unplayable quite that quickly. A small bounce-back season is certainly doable.

What also helps Demers is that he’s a right-shot defender which is a position of some scarcity around the league and certainly among the remaining rearguards on the open market. While handedness isn’t as big of a factor for some coaches as it is for others, being a righty should open up some extra opportunities.

Stats

2020-21: 41 GP, 0-4-4, -4 rating, 26 PIMS, 44 shots, 49.6 CF%, 17:14 ATOI
Career: 699 GP, 45-169-214, +31 rating, 407 PIMS, 884 shots, 51.7 CF%, 19:10 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Who needs low-cost roster depth? Plenty of teams will be searching for an extra low-cost defender in the weeks to come to give them some extra insurance heading into training camp while those with weaker depth on the right side could have more interest in someone like Demers.

In the East, Demers would serve as an upgrade in Pittsburgh on Chad Ruhwedel or Mark Friedman, veterans who have primarily been AHL or reserve options in recent years. Montreal’s third right-shot blueliner is Chris Wideman, a veteran who hasn’t seen NHL action the last two seasons so Demers would at least serve as some insurance on that front. Demers would also be an upgrade in Columbus who could view Demers as someone that could play early on to allow a younger player like Andrew Peeke or Gabriel Carlsson to spend a bit more time in the minors before flipping Demers midseason.

Out West, the Blues could stand to add some veteran depth with the departures of Vince Dunn and Carl Gunnarsson while Robert Bortuzzo, a righty like Demers, has typically been used in a platoon role over playing in every game. Calgary’s right side is thin behind Rasmus Andersson and Christopher Tanev while Chicago could use someone like Demers if they feel Ian Mitchell is better served playing top minutes in Rockford over the third pairing with the Blackhawks.

Projected Contract

Demers’ tough season put him on the outside looking in for our Top 50 UFA list and his value has certainly dropped as well. At this point, it wouldn’t be surprising if he had some PTO offers on the table but he still has some time to try to land a guaranteed deal. A one-year deal at or near the league minimum of $750K may be all he can land at this point and if last season was just an aberration and not a sign of a quick decline, whoever gets him could wind up with a bit of a bargain.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Winnipeg Jets

August 28, 2021 at 11:02 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 5 Comments