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Free Agent Profile: Derick Brassard

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For the third straight year, veteran center Derick Brassard finds himself still looking for a contract well after the free agent market opened up.  Not much has changed for him over that stretch and he remains a depth offensive option for teams to consider in the coming weeks.

Last season, the 33-year-old caught on with the Coyotes just as training camps were on the horizon, inking a one-year, $1MM contract.  Brassard spent the majority of the campaign in a middle-six role, mostly on the third line but moving up to the second when needed.  It’s basically the role he has held for the past few years and the results were pretty much the same.

Brassard’s per game output dipped a bit compared to his 2019-20 showing but still managed to pick up 20 points, putting him in a tie for the player with the most points still standing on the free agent market (Kyle Palmieri had more but is believed to have an agreement with the Islanders).  He has even chipped in on the power play (seven goals over the last two years) and has won nearly 54% of his faceoffs over that stretch.

So why is he once again looking for a contract?  Brassard’s defensive zone play has never been a strong point and while that was okay earlier in his career when he was putting up 40 or more points, teams aren’t as willing to give him playing time with him producing less.  His own-zone performance isn’t going to suddenly improve so these year-to-year deals are likely what it’s going to continue to be for Brassard.

Stats

2020-21: 53 GP, 8-12-20, -10 rating, 12 PIMS, 67 shots, 50.0 CF%, 14:48 ATOI
Career: 905 GP, 194-309-503, -35 rating, 419 PIMS, 1,781 shots, 50.2 CF%, 16:05 ATOI

Potential Suitors

There are a couple of possible types of suitors for Brassard at this stage.  The first is a team that is looking for a bit more depth down the middle and doesn’t want to pay up for someone like Tyler Bozak.  The other is a team with some young centers that wants either an insurance policy or to bring him in to allow one of those pivots to spend more time in the minors.

In the first group, Seattle is down their top center for the first few months with Yanni Gourde out following shoulder surgery and while they signed Marcus Johansson who can fill in down the middle, Brassard, a natural center, could be a better fit.  Montreal lost Phillip Danault with the only replacement down the middle being Cedric Paquette who spent most of last season as a winger.  With an inexperienced group at center, Brassard could replace someone like Eric Staal who was acquired midseason from Buffalo.  Minnesota still doesn’t have a particularly strong group at center, particularly when it comes to offensive upside and Brassard would give them another option without breaking the bank for the eventual Kirill Kaprizov contract.

The second group features teams that aren’t likely to make the playoffs.  Columbus, where his career started after they made him the sixth-overall pick 15 years ago, is firmly in a rebuild and are banking on some unproven players making the jump.  Brassard would be an insurance policy and with Max Domi out to start the year, he could have a lineup spot at the start.  Anaheim has forced some of their younger players in when they haven’t been ready which hasn’t worked particularly from a development standpoint.  Brassard’s presence could allow someone to spend more time with AHL San Diego.  As for Ottawa, they’re believed to be sniffing around for a veteran forward and with Chris Tierney being in trade speculation dating back to last season and entering the final year of his deal, Brassard would be a low-cost option to carry in case they wind up moving Tierney at some point.

Projected Contract

Brassard has made our Top 50 UFA list in the past but didn’t this time around.  He made $1MM last season and $1.2MM the year before.  Another small dip at this stage is likely and a one-year deal for the veteran should check in somewhere around $900K.  At a price tag that could be buried entirely in the minors, he’ll be a low-risk pickup for whoever winds up signing him in the coming weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Nikita Gusev

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A few years ago, Nikita Gusev’s stock was at an all-time high.  After his third straight dominant season in the KHL, Vegas (who acquired his rights from Tampa Bay in an expansion-related trade) was finally able to bring him over to North America by burning the only year of his entry-level deal without him playing a single game.  Months later, they realized they wouldn’t be able to afford him and flipped him to New Jersey for second and third-round selections.

The Devils promptly handed him a two-year, $9MM contract, a sizable commitment for someone who had never played in the NHL before.  Still, it seemed like a reasonable move as they had openings in their top six so he’d have a chance to be an impact player right away.  His first season was pretty good with 44 points in 66 games and while there were some bumps along the way, that’s legitimate second-line production.

Things didn’t go as well last season, however.  Gusev’s role lessened to the point where he was scratched at times and after he cleared waivers and no trade partner materialized, he accepted a contract termination and signed for less money with Florida to get an opportunity down the stretch.  He did well with that, notching five points in 11 games but in the playoffs, he was scratched once again.

At 29, Gusev is certainly still young enough to play in the NHL for several more years and his first season with New Jersey showed that he has the ability to produce in the NHL.  That makes him an intriguing option among those still looking for a place to play in 2021-22.

Stats

2020-21: 31 GP, 4-6-10, -12 rating, 2 PIMS, 72 shots, 57.9 CF%, 14:21 ATOI
Career: 97 GP, 17-37-54, -27 rating, 14 PIMS, 230 shots, 51.5 CF%, 14:35 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Gusev could go a few different ways here, changing the potentially interested teams in the process.  If he’s looking to maximize money, the options will be limited.  But if he’s open to a one-year deal around the $1MM mark (similar to what he did with Florida), he becomes a low-risk option for some cap-strapped teams that are looking to make an incremental gain offensively.

In the first scenario, Buffalo makes some sense as a fit.  There would be an opportunity for Gusev to play an important role, potentially in their top six where he’d have a chance to put up a level of production closer to his first season.  Detroit could use him although he’d be a little lower on the depth chart; the same could be said for Nashville who could certainly benefit from an influx of offense as could San Jose.  In each of these scenarios, a one-year deal would also create the possibility of trying to move him at the trade deadline.  It didn’t work for New Jersey last season but with a better showing and a cheaper contract, the odds of a trade happening would be better by the 2022 deadline.

If he’s willing to sign a cheaper contract, Colorado stands out as an appealing option.  The Avs are typically a high-scoring team and Gusev would add some firepower to a forward group that lost Brandon Saad (free agency) and Joonas Donskoi (expansion) this summer.  Philadelphia has a shot at deploying four lines with decent offensive upside and someone like Gusev would further push them in that direction.

Projected Contract

Gusev ranked 41st on our Top 50 UFA list with a projected one-year, $2MM contract.  That type of contract could be on the table closer to training camp if he wants to sign with a rebuilding team but if he wants to play on a playoff-bound team, he may need to come in closer to half of that.  At that price tag, he could wind up being quite a bargain.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag: Devils, Kraken, Bruins Centers, Standings, Kuznetsov, Predictions, Chinakhov

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag including New Jersey’s summer movement, Seattle’s possible opening night lineup, Boston’s center situation, picking playoff teams, Evgeny Kuznetsov’s future with Washington, player predictions, and inserting the most surprising pick from the 2020 draft into the 2021 draft.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Did the Devils do enough this offseason to actually end this rebuild? Do you see them doing anything else this offseason?

Just so it’s mentioned, not long after this question was asked, New Jersey went out and added Tomas Tatar which is another notable move.  More on him shortly.

What’s the definition of ending the rebuild?  If it’s making the playoffs, the answer is no.  For me, this is the summer that starts the end of the rebuild.  Dougie Hamilton instantly gives them the high-impact defenseman they’ve lacked for a long time.  That’s a long-term building block in place that isn’t under the age of 23.  Ryan Graves is an effective blueliner that’s young enough to be part of the long-term core if things go well.  Tatar is a great fit for them; he’ll provide some veteran insulation for one of Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier and should raise the floor of that line.  His defensive skills are also understated given how effective of a two-way line he was on with Montreal.  He isn’t a long-term piece but he should elevate one of those two pivots which helps to end the rebuild.  Jonathan Bernier is a good fit to be the veteran mentor for Mackenzie Blackwood in the role that Corey Crawford was supposed to fill last year.  They won’t have elite goaltending but there shouldn’t be many off nights either.

I think they’re pretty much done this summer.  They still want to keep plenty of lineup spots for their younger players to give them more time to develop, another sign that the rebuild isn’t done just yet.  Once they can determine which ones will be part of the core and which are expendable, then it’ll be time for another round of veteran additions to further raise the floor.  That will be the signal that the intention will shift from the future to the present.

YzerPlan19: What does the Kraken opening night roster look like? Do they make any surprise additions before then? Who is the next William Karlsson breakout candidate?

I wouldn’t be surprised if there isn’t another move or two by the start of the season but I’m thinking more in terms of moving a surplus defenseman and maybe taking on an expensive expiring contract but it wouldn’t be a player that would have a big role.  So with the roster as it currently stands, my attempt at an opening night lineup:

Jaden Schwartz – Alexander Wennberg – Jordan Eberle
Marcus Johansson – Jared McCann – Joonas Donskoi
Brandon Tanev – Calle Jarnkrok – Mason Appleton
Colin Blackwell – Morgan Geekie – Nathan Bastian

Yanni Gourde won’t be ready to start the year after recent shoulder surgery which creates a hole down the middle.  It has been a few years since Jarnkrok played regularly down the middle but I like him on that ‘checking’ line more than someone like Johansson (who struggles at center) or Geekie (not yet ready for that role).  I also expect Matthew Beniers to play in college next season.

Mark Giordano – Adam Larsson
Vince Dunn – Jamie Oleksiak
Carson Soucy – Jeremy Lauzon

Philipp Grubauer
Chris Driedger

In terms of a breakout candidate, McCann feels like the only one that fits.  He has shown flashes of living up to his offensive upside in the past but a bigger and more consistent role could be the key to him showing that skill level more consistently.

sovietcanuckistanian: Not 100% surprised by Krejci uprooting for his home, but it does sting. My query is; as much as I’d love to see an internal candidate pick up his mantle or one of the signings made by the front office pan out in that regard… I’m not going to hold my breath. What/who are realistic options to now plug a rather large hole in the lineup? In the event of a trade, besides DeBrusk going the other way, who would also be prime pickings to be dealt – should a decent trade option present itself?

VonBrewski: Sweeney’s comments of “2nd line center by committee” are absolutely shocking to me. He let Krejci paint him into a corner. I appreciate what Krejci did for the club but doesn’t it seem that with Krejci’s timing and Sweeney not having a backup plan that they both screwed the Bruins? Sweeney does not impress me as a GM at all.

Let’s combine the Krejci questions together.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news here but I don’t see much in the way of viable options for a top-six center to take David Krejci’s position on the roster.  There weren’t many in free agency and in terms of ones they can afford on the cap (in other words, not Jack Eichel or Evgeny Kuznetsov), pickings are pretty slim.  They’ve been speculatively linked to Arizona’s Christian Dvorak which certainly makes sense.  I just don’t think they have the pieces to make it work for the Coyotes.  With the 25-year-old carrying a $4.45MM AAV for four more years, the asking price is going to be high.  Speculatively, I’d expect something in the equivalent of two first-rounders – one pick and one prospect worth that.  They’d want more than that to take on Jake DeBrusk coming off the year he had and his salary too.  I think someone like Fabian Lysell would be a prospect that would fit one hole but with Boston being a team that’s expected to contend for a top-three seed, their projected 2022 first-rounder may be worse than what other teams are offering.  Dvorak would be a great fit but I’m not sure a trade lines up.  If Calgary winds up adding a center via trade, someone like Sean Monahan would make some sense as well although matching money would be a bit tougher.

Beyond that, I’m going to take Sweeney at his word and say it will be filled internally by committee.  Charlie Coyle is going to get the first chance and is the logical choice.  I think Nick Foligno will be an option at some point; he played down the middle frequently with Columbus when there were injuries.  I really liked the Erik Haula signing; he works well as a third center but at times, he has played well enough to be in the top six.  I’m not saying it won’t be an issue but as far as internal options go, they’re not particularly bad.

That’s not absolving GM Don Sweeney entirely, however.  This is something that they haven’t really planned for well over the past few years other than the Coyle acquisition since he had played down the middle with Minnesota at times.  But it’s not all his fault either.  When you’re picking at the back of the first round (or not at all in the first round having traded picks for win-now help), this is what happens.  There’s a reason that impact centers – even second-liners – are hard to come by.  Alexander Wennberg just got $4.5MM per season less than a calendar year after Columbus bought him out.  At best, he’s a second-liner.  Impact centers are the hardest piece to acquire and for a long time, Boston had two of them.  Yes, Sweeney failed in terms of not having a proven backup plan but that’s hardly a problem unique to the Bruins; many teams are or have been in the same situation.

As for Krejci, he earned the right to make the decision when he did and it sounds like he had at least informed Boston that he was leaning in that direction.  I don’t think there’s much blame for him in this.  And Sweeney certainly hasn’t closed the door on him returning at some point either although that’s easier said than done in terms of making it work on the salary cap.

mikedickinson: Major wave of free agency done… Give me your top eight in the East and top eight in the West after the additions and subtractions of players.

Subject to change as I don’t think all of the notable moves on the trade front are all done just yet, here’s a quick guess at the playoff teams as things stand (in no particular order).

Atlantic: Tampa Bay, Boston, Florida
Metropolitan: Carolina, Washington, NY Islanders
East Wild Cards: Toronto, Philadelphia

Central: Colorado, Winnipeg, St. Louis
Pacific: Vegas, Edmonton, Vancouver
West Wild Cards: Dallas, Chicago

2012orioles: Capitals have taken back the idea of trading Kuznetsov. Is this just a tactic to get a better return? Or will he truly be a Capital opening night?

I don’t think it’s a tactic.  As much as there is some negativity surrounding Evgeny Kuznetsov, he’s still a legitimate top-six center and when he’s on, he’s still a top-liner.  They can’t afford to give away that type of talent at a steep discount with an aging Nicklas Backstrom and Lars Eller (who is much better on the third line than the second) in the wings; Connor McMichael isn’t ready yet.

On the flip side, other teams aren’t going to want to pay top dollar with how last year went, especially with a $7.8MM price tag for four more years which looks like above-market value at this point.  There’s definitely a market for Kuznetsov but it’s more a swap of big contracts in the hopes that the change of scenery gets them going.  Is that the type of deal that they should really be doing?  I don’t think so.

They’ve found a way to get cap compliant for next season so they’re not in a spot where they have to move him.  If they don’t get fair value, they can simply hold on to him.  I don’t think he’d fetch fair value in a trade so I don’t think this is a tactic by any stretch.  I expect Kuznetsov will be in a Washington uniform for their opener.

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Free Agent Profile: Erik Gustafsson

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Can you remember the 60-point season that Erik Gustafsson had just a few years ago? It seems like a decade has passed since that 2018-19 campaign, when he scored 17 goals and 60 points for the Chicago Blackhawks, trailing only Brent Burns, Mark Giordano, Morgan Rielly, John Carlsson, and Keith Yandle in scoring among NHL defensemen. One would think the 29-year-old could call up any GM in the league and iron out a contract with that kind of upside, but now he sits on the open market without a deal two weeks into free agency.

It’s what Gustafsson has done in the interim that has people worried. He returned to Chicago the next season and had 26 points in 59 games, but was so suspect defensively that he generated just a third-round pick at the deadline for the Blackhawks. His play down the stretch and in the bubble with the Calgary Flames was good enough to land him a $3MM salary for 2020-21 with the Philadelphia Flyers, but still inconsistent enough to limit the term to just one year. Once again he was moved at the deadline, only this time it was for a seventh-round pick from the Montreal Canadiens, directly showing how much his lustre had faded.

Still, you can’t just ignore the fact that Gustafsson has the 25th most points from a defenseman over the last three seasons. He averaged nearly 21 minutes a night over that stretch, and played in 16 of Montreal’s playoff games during their recent Stanley Cup run. There’s still NHL value in the offensive defenseman, even if his deployment has to be carefully determined.

Stats

2020-21: 29 GP, 1-11-12, -1 rating, 0 PIM, 33 shots, 57.2 CF%, 16:43 ATOI
Career: 250 GP, 29-102-131, -4 rating, 71 PIM, 425 shots, 55.6 CF%, 19:35 ATOI

Potential Suitors

The question really is–like with any player left in free agency–whether or not Gustafsson is willing to play for a contract near the league minimum. There are contenders who could use a depth option like him to drive play in certain situations, as long as he’s willing to come aboard cheaply. The Vegas Golden Knights, for instance, still likely need to add a defenseman after trading away Nick Holden, but don’t really have any cap space to work with. The Toronto Maple Leafs also don’t have a very long depth chart on defense, even after adding players like Alex Biega and Carl Dahlstrom. Toronto’s powerplay struggled immensely last season, so perhaps a player like Gustafsson could be used in a part-time role until they trust Rasmus Sandin in that spot.

If he wants to maximize his earning potential though, Gustafsson may be better off pursuing an opportunity on a rebuilding club. The Buffalo Sabres have a motley crew of defensemen heading into the season, with none outside of Rasmus Dahlin really demanding offensive deployment now that Rasmus Ristolainen is gone. Even the Arizona Coyotes, despite bringing in Shayne Gostisbehere, Conor Timmins and Anton Stralman could potentially use another NHL defenseman. The Coyotes have Victor Soderstrom waiting for his chance, but is bringing him up right now the best move for his development?

The issue now is how many teams have already filled out their depth charts. There’s just literally no room on some rosters for the veteran defenseman, meaning it could potentially be a long wait for him this summer.

Projected Contract

Gustafsson actually ranked 44th on our Top 50 UFA list, but even there we projected a one-year, $1MM contract. Even reaching that number may be a challenge at this point in free agency, with teams already cap committed with so many other options. That 60-point season is a distant memory at this point, meaning a deal near the league minimum or even–shockingly–a professional tryout may be in store. The thing is, that actually may be a huge bargain for whoever gets him, as there is still a way to squeeze real value out of what he does well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Profile: Alex Chiasson

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Two years ago, Alex Chiasson entered free agency in an ideal situation.  He was coming off his first season with Edmonton and had a career year which gave him considerably more leverage than he had the year before when he hit the open market.  That landed him a two-year deal to stay with the Oilers but things haven’t gone as well since then so the veteran has hit free agency in a different situation than he had last time.

After his first season with the Oilers, it looked as if the 30-year-old was finally living up to the potential he had shown in flashes in his previous stops.  22 goals in 73 games is certainly decent for someone who had largely been a role player up to that point but unfortunately for him and the Oilers, Chiasson was only able to manage 20 goals over the last two seasons combined, spanning 110 contests.

Still, Chiasson stands 6’3 and has shown a bit of a scoring touch with the man advantage, tallying 19 goals over his three seasons with Edmonton.  While he certainly wasn’t a play driver on their power play, he still filled a useful role on it.  Between the size and power play ability, he’s an intriguing depth option for teams even if he doesn’t fill the prototypical style that many teams covet in their bottom six (physical with an ability to kill penalties).

Stats

2020-21: 45 GP, 9-7-16, -10 rating, 33 PIMS, 65 shots, 45.6 CF%, 12:29 ATOI
Career: 564 GP, 101-101-202, -40 rating, 329 PIMS, 798 shots, 48.1 CF%, 13:51 ATOI

Potential Suitors

How much Chiasson wants will largely dictate his market.  If he’s willing to back to playing for close to the league minimum, he becomes an intriguing pickup for some cap-strapped teams that are looking for an incremental boost.  Otherwise, his options will be limited to teams that project to have ample cap space that could also be open to taking a flyer on him rediscovering that scoring touch from two years ago.  For this exercise, we’ll look at the teams with cap space and assume that a cheap deal isn’t on the table just yet.

In the East, the Devils have been quite active already this summer but someone like Chiasson would add some more offensive upside to their depth forwards and they still have plenty of cap space to bring him in.  The Blue Jackets don’t have a lot of firepower in their bottom six and also have ample cap room for the winger.  One of his former teams in the Senators could have a use for Chiasson if they want a younger forward to get some more development time with AHL Belleville as well.

Out West, the Wild should still have enough cap room by the time they re-sign their two big RFAs to add Chiasson in a depth role.  The Predators are currently projected to have some inexperienced players in their bottom six and could use Chiasson as a piece to allow someone to spend more time in the minors.  The Avalanche didn’t really replace Joonas Donskoi and while Chiasson is at a lower level than he is, he’s someone that can move up into the top six at times if needed and Colorado still has a bit of wiggle room with their cap.

Projected Contract

Chiasson ranked 47th on our Top 50 UFA list with a projected two-year, $3.2MM contract.  At this point, landing that contract seems unlikely as at this point of free agency, teams are bargain shopping and won’t be swayed by that 22-goal campaign.  A one-year pact that’s closer to $1MM may be more realistic now and considering his power play production with Edmonton, he could be an interesting pickup for several teams at that price point.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jakub Vrana

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While most of the players who had early arbitration dates have settled in recent days, that hasn’t been the case yet for the Red Wings and Jakub Vrana.  They have until the start of the hearing on Wednesday to reach an agreement; once the hearing starts, they will have to go through the process and wait for the award.

Filings

Team: $3.65MM
Player: $5.7MM
Midpoint: $4.675MM

(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

The Numbers

It was a tale of two seasons for Vrana.  He spent the majority of the year with Washington and while his numbers weren’t underwhelming with them, he did take a step back from his career-best 52 points in 2019-20.  But his fortunes changed upon being traded to Detroit.  The 25-year-old took off, notching eight goals and three assists in 11 games and in the process, brought his per-game averages close to what they were the year before.  Overall, the platform year was decent.

Of course, 11 games is a particularly small sample size which adds a wrinkle to these talks.  Vrana logged considerably more minutes with the Red Wings than he ever had a chance to with the Capitals but it’s hard to make any substantive conclusions based on his performance over the span of a few weeks when they were playing out the stretch.

Vrana’s track record isn’t the deepest either as only his last three seasons have yielded above-average production and two of those came in shortened years.  While that shouldn’t hurt him much in a hearing, it’s worth noting that over his five-year career, he has played in fewer than 300 regular season contests which is a bit on the low side for a fifth-year player in the top six.

2020-21 Stats: 50 GP, 19-17-36, +10 rating, 10 PIMS, 100 shots, 15:00 ATOI
Career Stats: 295 GP, 84-84-168, +37 rating, 69 PIMS, 613 shots, 13:49 ATOI

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used.  The contracts below fit within those parameters.  Player salaries (or current-year equivalents) also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides.  Career stats listed are as of the time of signing.

Oliver Bjorkstrand (Blue Jackets) – Similar to Vrana, Bjorkstrand signed his contract after three seasons of top-six performance with a limited track record before that.  The situation is a little different in that Bjorkstrand’s platform year was by far his best.  That likely sets this one at the high end of what Vrana could realistically command in a hearing.

Contract (2021): Five years, $5.4MM AAV, 6.63 CH%
Platform Stats: 49 GP, 21-15-36, +8 rating, 12 PIMS, 162 shots, 17:56 ATOI
Career Stats: 246 GP, 65-68-133, +30 rating, 35 PIMS, 566 shots, 14:28 ATOI

Boone Jenner (Blue Jackets) – Now let’s look at the other end of the spectrum.  While Jenner has settled into more of a checking role in recent years, his current four-year deal was signed post-bridge like Vrana is currently in.  In terms of a role, both players were in and out of the middle six at times and the career point totals are similar although Vrana has played fewer games.  This choice was a guess at what comparable Detroit was using for their number.

Contract (2018): Four years, $3.75MM AAV, 4.72 CH%
Platform Stats: 75 GP, 13-19-32, +1 rating, 39 PIMS, 187 shots, 16:28 ATOI
Career Stats: 342 GP, 86-75-161, +1 rating, 225 PIMS, 833 shots, 16:01 ATOI

Conor Garland (Canucks) – Let’s look at a recent deal handed out to a top-six winger post-bridge deal.  Garland doesn’t have close to as long of a track record as Vrana but their production over the past two seasons is fairly close and the fact the platforms are directly comparable certainly helps.  Recent performance counts for a lot in this process so this is one that Vrana’s camp will want to use.

Contract (2021): Five years, $4.95MM AAV, 6.07 CH%
Platform Stats: 49 GP, 12-27-39, -3 rating, 26 PIMS, 135 shots, 17:55 ATOI
Career Stats: 164 GP, 47-49-96, -1 rating, 58 PIMS, 411 shots, 14:53 ATOI

Kevin Labanc (Sharks) – One year after signing a highly team-friendly deal, Labanc inked a four-year deal that raised some eyebrows but there are some comparables here.  The roles were largely the same (mostly top six but dropped down at times), three years of top-six production, and a contract signed post-bridge.

Contract (2020): Four years, $4.725MM AAV, 5.80 CH%
Platform Stats: 70 GP, 14-19-33, -33 rating, 38 PIMS, 176 shots, 16:04 ATOI
Career Stats: 284 GP, 50-99-149, -31 rating, 128 PIMS, 532 shots, 14:33 ATOI

Elias Lindholm (Flames) – While it took Lindholm a bit of time to become a legitimate top-six piece, the Flames signed him after acquiring him from Carolina to this current deal (one that has worked out quite well so far).  Vrana’s best statistical seasons were better than Lindholm’s but the latter had the longer track record.

Contract (2018): Six years, $4.85MM AAV, 6.10 CH%
Platform Stats: 81 GP, 16-28-44, -8 rating, 18 PIMS, 153 shots, 17:54 ATOI
Career Stats: 374 GP, 64-124-188, -70 rating, 76 PIMS, 720 shots, 17:09 ATOI

Projection

Worth noting is that Detroit gets to elect the term of the contract since Vrana was the one to file.  With the winger being two years from UFA eligibility, it stands to reason that the Red Wings will elect the one-year term while Vrana’s camp likely filed a two-year proposal.

The comparable contracts seem to be more in Vrana’s favor with the deals hovering around the $5MM and 6.0 CH% range.  That should be the point where a long-term checks in which would put it a little below the $5.7MM AAV (6.99 CH%) of the player he was traded for in Anthony Mantha.  I’d peg a long-term deal that buys out at least two UFA years a little above Garland’s deal which would put the AAV around $5.05MM (6.2 CH%) and a little above the midpoint of the two filings.  If they wind up settling for a one-year pact that would keep Vrana RFA-eligible next summer, that could move the needle a little below the midpoint in the $4.6MM range.  Either way, he’s looking at a nice raise for next season compared to the $3MM salary he had in 2020-21.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Profile: Sami Vatanen

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Few defensemen have seen their stock drop as significantly as Sami Vatanen’s has the last couple of years.  Two seasons ago, he was a fixture in New Jersey’s top four.  Even in 2020-21, he had plenty of playing time but had a soft free agent market to the point where he had to take more than a 50% pay cut to simply stick with the Devils.

Last season certainly only made things worse.  Vatanen was dropped to a spot on the third pairing for New Jersey and didn’t fare particularly well.  Widely speculated as a surefire trade candidate at the deadline, the Devils couldn’t find a taker and simply wound up waiving him where Dallas scooped him up.  His role didn’t really change and neither did his performance, sending him to the open market coming off the worst season of his career.

Nevertheless, there is still enough upside with Vatanen that landed him on our Top 50 UFA list for the second year in a row, albeit at a much lower spot this time around.  The 30-year-old saw his production fall off a cliff last season but before that, he had averaged 28 points per game over the previous six seasons.  Sure, his days of being a 30-plus-point blueliner are probably done but something in the high teens/early 20’s is still a possibility; he did that as recently as 2019-20.

Vatanen is also a right-shot defender which is something that many teams are often coveting, particularly at the trade deadline.  He’s someone that can still play on the second power play unit if needed and log 15 or more minutes at five-on-five.  That’s not an exciting profile compared to the player he was but he can still fill a useful role.

Stats

2020-21: 39 GP, 2-4-6, +3 rating, 20 PIMS, 55 shots, 52.3 CF%, 17:01 ATOI
Career: 473 GP, 47-153-200, -5 rating, 212 PIMS, 860 shots, 49.9 CF%, 20:48 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Given that he can’t be commanding a sizable salary based on the year he had, he’s someone that a contending team may be looking to add for cheap now.  Conversely, a rebuilding team could view Vatanen as someone that can hold a spot to allow a prospect to develop a little longer in the minors before looking to move him down the stretch.

In the East, the Blue Jackets don’t have much in the way of proven right-shot defensive depth with long-time fixtures Seth Jones and David Savard departing over the last few months.  They’re not looking to win now but Vatanen’s presence could allow someone like Andrew Peeke to spend a bit more time in the AHL.  Savard’s new team in Montreal still could use a right-shot defender with Chris Wideman currently projecting to be on their third pairing despite not being in the NHL the last two seasons.  Pittsburgh could use Vatanen in the role vacated by Cody Ceci who signed in Edmonton but Vatanen’s price tag would need to come pretty close to the minimum which he may not be willing to do at the moment.

Arizona’s defensive makeover still needs another couple of players and for all of the contracts the Coyotes have taken on, they still have plenty of cap space.  Calgary only has two proven righties on the back end if they don’t want to shift one of Juuso Valimaki or Oliver Kylington to their off-side and could fit Vatanen in on the third pairing.  Vatanen’s original team in Anaheim added some low-cost depth blueliners to contend for a roster spot but he’d still represent an upgrade on those players if they wanted to try to rebuild his value and flip him later on.

Projected Contract

Vatanen ranked 43rd on our Top 50 UFA list with a projected one-year, $1.5MM deal.  At this point, it stands to reason that he’d have taken an offer like that had it been there so he may have to take a further pay cut once again.  If he can bounce back offensively, his next contract, whatever it winds up being, has the potential to be a team-friendly one.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag: Tarasenko, Eichel, Getzlaf, Islanders

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There were several questions about Vladimir Tarasenko and Jack Eichel so they get the focus in this edition of the PHR Mailbag which also features a question about Anaheim’s captain and the Islanders’ summer strategy of keeping as much secret as possible.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

Gmm8811: My thoughts on the Tarasenko situation in St. Louis compared to when Brett Hull was a Blue. Both were great goal scorers that didn’t contribute much to their defensive game when needed. When Hull left, he became a much better all-around player. Obviously, Hull was more productive, but it was a different era. If Vlad leaves the Blues, do you think he can elevate that part of his game? If he stays in St. Louis, can he get over the issues he’s brought up? Is he hard-headed enough to say the heck with it and go back to Russia if he doesn’t get his way? Does he have it in him to be a “team” player?

I’m going to go out of order here and go with the last one first.  Anything is possible when it comes to a player changing in a new environment but I wouldn’t suggest that’s a likely outcome here.  It’s not as if Tarasenko is a youngster that’s still developing – he’s 29 with 531 career regular season games under his belt.  Can he improve his play away from the puck?  Sure, especially depending on the system he’s in (assuming he’s moved).  But will it be to the point where it’s a demonstrable performance?  Probably not.

There is no mechanism for him to go back to Russia unless he wants to retire from the NHL and do what Ilya Kovalchuk did where he walked away from his contract (eventually coming back when he was declared a free agent).  Tarasenko is owed $15MM in salary over the next two years.  That’s a lot of money to walk away from if he’s unhappy.  He doesn’t necessarily have to get over his concerns if he stays, he just has to play, collect his money, and hope for a trade down the road.

sam i am: First time on here. Thx for the chats. What are your thoughts/ideas about Tarasenko? It’s past time to take a draft pick and eat some salary, isn’t it? Is there a d-man you think they can acquire AFTER Army knows how much cap space is left? Maybe sign Bozak with it? Thx again for your insight.

There’s a part of me that agrees with you.  At some point, is an exit the best for everyone even if it’s a minimal return?  A move with retention probably does allow them to re-sign Tyler Bozak and at this point, I suspect that’s why he remains unsigned at this point as he’s waiting to see if they can free up some money to re-sign him.  Accordingly, Bozak would basically be part of the return for Tarasenko, not just the draft pick.  I don’t see them looking to add an impact defenseman at this point either, they’ll give players like Niko Mikkola and Jake Walman longer looks while Scott Perunovich could be in the mix at some point as well.

On the other hand, at what point does a nominal return of a pick and Bozak’s return get outweighed by the potential of Tarasenko bouncing back?  If they truly believe that the third time is the charm when it comes to his shoulder surgery (I’m a little leery about that), it then stands to reason that they think he can still play an impact role.  And if that’s the case, the potential on-ice reward is better than what Bozak and a pick will bring, not to mention two years of carrying dead money on the books.

Yes, there’s a mutual desire to get a trade done but that doesn’t mean St. Louis should take whatever the best return is even if it’s a lousy one simply to get Tarasenko out of town.  At some point, the potential upside of Tarasenko rebounding has to count for something and I suspect that’s what’s holding things up.  GM Doug Armstrong doesn’t have to move him even though he wants to.

deeds: Where will Tarasenko end up? Are the Blues stuck with a disgruntled employee?

I think he stays with St. Louis, at least to start the season for the reasons mentioned above.  If his trade value is really so low that all they can do is take a pick and have to eat some money to do it, they might as well keep him and see if he rebounds.  Most teams have used up their cap space at this point so it’s not like it’s going to be considerably harder to trade him in-season if it comes to it; they’ll still have to retain money or take a high-priced contract back either way.  If he bounces back, great.  If he doesn’t, he still might be easier to move as an expiring deal a year from now and a buyout could definitely be in play at that point as well.

Coach Wall: Why all the fuss about Jack Eichel? Any team that pays him $10 million AAV for the next five or six years AND gives Buffalo their asking price is foolish. The guy has a very serious neck issue and may not last one year.

First, to clarify, it’s five years for Eichel before he becomes an unrestricted free agent.  And yes, the neck issue is serious although the fusion surgery that the Sabres are pushing for is one that players have had and returned from.  It’s serious but it shouldn’t a career-ender.  The one that Eichel’s camp wants (artificial disc replacement) hasn’t been done on an NHL player before but carries a much shorter recovery time.  When his agents released a statement last month, they claimed he could be ready to start the season.  Even if that isn’t the case now, he might only miss a few games assuming everything goes well.

The reason why there is a lot of fuss is that top centers rarely become available in the prime of their career.  Eichel is a top center in the prime of his career.  He comes with a significant injury but the previous point still stands nonetheless.  That’s why Buffalo GM Kevyn Adams is driving a hard bargain on the trade front.  They don’t have to move him regardless of what the public sentiment is.  The surgery they want would cost him a big chunk of next season but with what they’re planning to run out as a goalie tandem as things currently stand, they might actually view that as a good thing as it’s pretty clear they’re not looking to compete let alone contend.

Should a team pay the premium price tag which still seems to involve four significant young assets?  It’s certainly fair to argue they shouldn’t considering the injury concerns and it’s hard to put conditions in a trade based on a successful operation (but I wouldn’t be shocked if that language is in there at some point).  But Eichel, when healthy, plays at a level that would significantly impact almost every team in the league.  That’s bound to generate plenty of hype.

Gbear: I heard one hockey writer say that Eichel should just get the surgery he wants regardless of what the Sabres recommend, but couldn’t that give the Sabres a legal avenue to try and void Eichel’s contract, let alone cover the costs of the surgery? And might that be the angle Pegula is playing here?

For clarification’s sake, before digging into this, here is the relevant portion of Section 34.4 of the CBA called Second Medical Opinions:

(e) Following the later of: (i) issuance of the Second Medical Opinion; or (ii) issuance of the recommendation on diagnosis or course of treatment by the Third Physician Expert, if any, the team physician shall determine the diagnosis and/or course of treatment (including the timing thereof) after consulting with the Second Medical Opinion Physician and the Third Physician Expert, if any, and giving due consideration to his/her/their recommendation(s).

The second medical opinion is the one that’s saying to do the artificial disc replacement but this rule clearly indicates that Buffalo gets to decide on the course of treatment and they’ve made their preference known.

There is a clause in a standard player’s contract (Section 6) that has a remedy for the team to void a deal if there is a material breach and I’m sure there’s an argument that could be made to say that getting a surgery that has never been performed on an NHL player before without consent from the team constitutes a material breach.

But I don’t think that’s Buffalo’s end game.  If owner Terry Pegula simply wanted out of the contract, wouldn’t he just tell his GM to trade him for whatever the best deal available is and be done with it?  I think Buffalo’s situation basically is they don’t want their star player being the guinea pig for a surgery that has never been performed on an NHL player before.  It doesn’t matter that other athletes have had it; they just don’t want it done to their guy.  They want Eichel to have what they feel is the safer procedure and that he comes back late in the season and resumes being their top forward right away.

Could Eichel force the issue?  Sure, but the consequences could be dire.  I have to think that if it was a more realistic scenario without the risk of his deal being voided, it might have been done already.

JerCanne: On a scale from 1-10 what are the chances Eichel is a Calgary Flame in October?

I’ll give it a two.  Eichel makes a lot of sense for the Flames.  Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm, and Mikael Backlund are all quality centers but none of them have the top-level upside that a healthy Eichel would bring to the table.  (It briefly appeared that Monahan could but that has waned over the last couple of seasons.)

But while those players are quality pieces, none are really young enough to entice Buffalo unless their main presence is as a salary offset.  The Flames don’t have a particularly robust prospect pool that will make them willing to deal the types of youngsters that Adams and the Sabres are seeking.  Eichel is a good fit on paper for Calgary but I don’t think they have the trade pieces that Buffalo is going to want unless their asking price dips sharply.

JustPete: What do you think of the Ducks new contract with Getzlaf – seems awfully rich to me. Follow up question – are the Ducks in such a position to warrant their lack of free agent activity or should they just fire Bob Murray?

I think it’s a little high but not overly excessive.  A $3MM base salary for a third liner isn’t over the top and given their inactivity, he’s still probably in their top six in which case the price tag is reasonable.  $1.5MM in games played bonuses makes it a little strange as Anaheim doesn’t exactly need the cap flexibility but it could come in handy if those bonuses are hit before the trade deadline if they wind up deciding to move him.  I wouldn’t have given Ryan Getzlaf quite that much but with the cap space they have, if you’re going to overpay someone, it might as well be a franchise icon.

Let’s dig into the lack of free agent activity which starts and ends with Getzlaf.  I have to admit, that surprised me.  I thought they were going to try to add a piece or two to try get back into the mix in the Pacific Division but the lack of movement suggests that Murray is thinking about a longer-term rebuild.  Frankly, that’s not a bad idea but if you’re going to do that, having a head coach in the final year of his contract (with their new AHL bench boss highlighting that as an attraction as Joel Bouchard did last month) seems a little strange as well.

Murray hasn’t had a great last few years, that much is for sure.  But if he has been given the green light to go down this path, he has some job security to do so; ownership likely wouldn’t commit to this plan and then fire him partway through it.  I think he sticks around.

The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: Why do the Islanders wait so long to make their contracts official? What benefit is there for the team, and even more perplexing, what benefit is there for the players?

By keeping as much cap space open as they have, it helped the Islanders hedge against an offer sheet.  While they’re rarely handed out, enough teams are concerned about it to do things to deter against one being issued.  For some of the contracts in place, are there side agreements to amend the term/money depending on what happens?  Your guess is as good as mine on that front.

It also could give them a little bit of extra leverage in trade discussions.  If they want to acquire someone, how much cap space do they have to clear to make that move happen?  If no other teams know what the Isles’ cap situation is like, it can’t be used against them.  For example, another team can’t come back and say that New York’s cap situation is so bad that they have to sell so and so for pennies on the dollar or demand additional compensation to take a player on.  They can’t make that claim because they don’t know how much money the Islanders have or don’t have.

In terms of the benefit for the players, there is none.  But GM Lou Lamoriello has been around long enough to be trusted.  There are handshake deals in place and he’ll live up to them.

Largely, this is Lou just being Lou.  He’s known to have a firm no-leak policy and has walked away from deals before if it became public before being officially announced.  That’s enough to have multiple agents and players keeping quiet at a time where the majority of moves are leaked in advance of being made official.  That’s really quite impressive even if it can be frustrating along the way.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Tyler Bozak

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It wasn’t a particularly strong free agent market down the middle this summer and most of the notable ones signed within the first couple of days of the market opening up.  One of the exceptions is Tyler Bozak and as a result, he finds himself in good shape in terms of trying to find his next home.

The 35-year-old has seen his production dip over the past few years as he has gone from someone logging more than 20 minutes per night with Toronto to playing more of a third line role which is where he best fits at this stage of his career.  He’s also now coming off a season that saw him miss 21 games due to a concussion which certainly doesn’t help his value.

But what does help his value is his two-way ability.  He can log a regular shift on the penalty kill and consistently is well above average at the faceoff dot which is always appealing to coaches.  On the offensive front, he has averaged at least 0.4 points per game in each season throughout his career and actually is coming off his best year in that stat since 2016-17 although with him playing the fewest games in a single season of his career, it’s a bit of a small sample size.

Nevertheless, Bozak can still be counted on to contribute a bit offensively, kill penalties, and take some key situational faceoffs.  That’s not a $5MM profile anymore like his last contract was but there is definitely a role for him to still fill.

Stats

2020-21: 31 GP, 5-12-17, -3 rating, 10 PIMS, 35 shots, 42.8 CF%, 14:55 ATOI, 56.8% faceoffs

Career: 764 GP, 167-282-449, -84 rating, 222 PIMS, 1,268 shots, 48.9 CF%, 17:47 ATOI, 53.8% faceoffs

Potential Suitors

Teams looking for an upgrade on the third line or a veteran to insulate some younger options should have some interest in Bozak.  That’s a relatively specific role to fill but one that makes sense for prospective contenders as well as rebuilding teams that could use him for a few months and then flip him to a contender closer to the trade deadline.

In the East, Montreal lost Phillip Danault to Los Angeles in free agency, their two top centers are currently 21 years old, and their likely third line pivot in Jake Evans has less than a full year of NHL games under his belt including playoffs.  Bozak would fit as some veteran insurance for the youngsters while replacing Danault’s situational faceoff role.  Boston hasn’t replaced David Krejci down the middle and while Bozak wouldn’t be a direct replacement, he’d give them some depth but making it work on the salary cap would be a challenge.  The Rangers could opt to put Filip Chytil back on the wing which would open up a spot on the third line for Bozak and a one-year term fits with the pricey contracts that are on the horizon a year from now.  Florida makes some sense as well with Bozak filling the role vacated by Alexander Wennberg but they need to get Sam Reinhart re-signed first to see what money they have left.

Out West, St. Louis still makes plenty of sense for Bozak aside from their cap situation.  If they can find a taker for Vladimir Tarasenko, the move would likely free up enough space to bring back Bozak to fill the same role on the depth chart he had last season.  If Colorado is opening to spending right to the Upper Limit in the offseason, Bozak would certainly fit on their third line although there’s definitely risk to being capped out that early.  Just ask Vegas about that; they could use Bozak and have LTIR room to add him into although getting back into compliance when Alex Tuch is ready to return would put them right back where they were last season in terms of dancing around the cap.  Nashville certainly has the cap space and an opening to add Bozak but if they’re heading towards something resembling a rebuild, it may not be the best fit.

Projected Contract

Bozak ranked 35th on our Top 50 UFA list with a projected one-year deal with a base salary of $2.5MM and $1MM in performance bonuses.  (As Bozak is 35, he’s eligible for a contract with incentives as long as it’s a one-year agreement.)  There are enough spots for him to command that price tag but if he wants to go to a contender, he may have to take a lesser deal or at least push more of the guaranteed money into incentives to give the signing team the flexibility to get a deal done.  At this point in free agency, Bozak is the best option left among middlemen and unless he plans to wait out the Tarasenko situation, he should sign his next contract fairly soon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Tomas Tatar

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As things start to settle down after a whirlwind first few days of free agency, teams around the league will be taking stock of who is still out there and looking at where those players could possibly fit in.  One of the players that several teams will certainly be considering is Tomas Tatar.

His case has been a strange one to follow over the years.  Go back to 2018 and his stock was on the rise.  He was coming off four straight years of 19 goals or more and was the big addition by Vegas at the trade deadline.  The hope was that Tatar would give their offense a boost as they went on a long playoff run.  They had the long run but Tatar did so little that he was a healthy scratch for more than half of it.  Months later, his stock much lower, he was included as salary ballast in a trade to Montreal with Vegas paying down a small portion of his contract.

With the Canadiens, Tatar rebounded, putting up 25 and 22 goals in his first two seasons with the team and his stock was on the rise again.  Again, however, that changed fairly quickly.  His numbers dipped last season to just 10 goals and 20 assists in 50 games, still decent but he spent a good chunk of the year on their top line while posting strong possession numbers.  By the end of it, he was back in the press box periodically and in the playoffs, he suited up in just five of 22 games.

How should Tatar be viewed?  It’s one of those glass half-full or half-empty situations.  On the one hand, here’s a player that coming into 2020-21 had seven straight years of 19 or more goals which is legitimate consistent top-six production on a lot of teams.  On the other hand, two teams now have seen fit to bench him for extended periods of time during a run to the Stanley Cup Final.  Those true but vastly diverse points make him a particularly intriguing free agent.

Stats

2020-21: 50 GP, 10-20-30, even rating, 8 PIMS, 82 shots, 58.9 CF%, 14:59 ATOI

Career: 625 GP, 176-201-377, +23 rating, 224 PIMS, 1,351 shots, 56.9 CF%, 15:36 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Who has a vacancy on the left wing in their top six and some cap space at their disposal?  Even with the recent poor playoff performances, Tatar should have enough of a regular season track record to generate interest from several teams.

In the East, New Jersey has the green light to spend and already made a big splash on the back end in Dougie Hamilton.  But they haven’t been able to do much of anything up front and Tatar would certainly give them a boost on the wing to work with one of their young centers in Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier.  Tatar would fill a hole in Buffalo although the Sabres aren’t a team that appears to be trying to win much next season but on a short-term trade, he could be a sign and flip option.  There is plenty of secrecy around the Islanders who have been linked to Kyle Palmieri and Zach Parise but if one of those falls through, Tatar fits as a fallback option.  Carolina is typically a strong possession team where Tatar could fit in but they’d need to have a good sense of what Andrei Svechnikov’s next deal would cost to see if they can afford him or not.

Out West, no team needs scoring more than Anaheim whose only addition up front this summer has been Buddy Robinson on a two-way deal.  Tatar could immediately step into an impact role for them.  Nashville has yet to fill the vacancy created by the Viktor Arvidsson trade and Tatar would be able to replace him from an offensive standpoint.  Seattle could still stand to add to their forward group but with the Kraken appearing to be emphasizing cap flexibility, Tatar may appeal to them only on a short-term contract.  Arizona is another team that doesn’t appear to be overly concerned with next season but Tatar would certainly improve their fortunes and could be an option as a sign and flip there as well.  If Tatar is willing to take a one-year deal, Colorado may have enough wiggle room on the cap to make it work if he takes a bit less than what his market value should be.

Projected Contract

Tatar ranked 15th in our Top 50 UFA list with a projected three-year, $12MM contract.  There are definitely concerns with what has happened lately in the playoffs but with his regular season performances, Tatar should still have a sizable list of teams that have cap space interested in him so he could still command close to that $4MM AAV on a multi-year contract as one of the top free agents remaining.  If he goes a few weeks without signing, however, a one-year deal could become a more feasible option with an eye on rebuilding his value to improve his free agent fortunes a year from now.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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