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RFA Profile: Elias Pettersson

September 16, 2021 at 8:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 7 Comments

Elias Pettersson burst onto the scene in 2018-19, immediately becoming a top-line player on the Canucks. He has been a fixture in that role since then, putting him in line for a substantial raise once he signs his second contract which should be at some point over the next few weeks with training camps fast approaching.

Drafted as a center, the 22-year-old has split time between playing down the middle and on the wing which expands the pool of comparable players to work from. Either way, Pettersson is going to be staying on the top trio.

There are a couple of elements that are going to be at play in these talks. One is that he missed the last 30 games with a wrist injury and while no one is saying he had something to prove there, he’s basically working off of two years worth of NHL games played whereas many of his comparables had three full years under their belt. It’s not going to drastically affect his value but it’s going to be something to keep in mind.

The other is Vancouver’s cap situation. By the time they whittle their roster down and place Micheal Ferland on LTIR, they’re going to have around $15MM to spend. That’s plenty for Pettersson but there’s also Quinn Hughes that needs to be signed. They can’t both get long-term deals; at least one of them is getting a bridge. How talks go with one will play a big role in negotiations for the other. (Both happen to be represented by CAA’s Pat Brisson as well.)

Statistics

2020-21: 26 GP, 10-11-21, even, 66 PIMS, 63 shots, 18:34 ATOI
Career: 165 GP, 65-88-153 (0.93 points per game), +19, 36 PIMS, 369 shots, 18:24 ATOI

Comparables

Brayden Point (Tampa Bay, 2019) – Let’s look at a couple of bridge options first. Point was basically stuck signing one due to Tampa’s cap situation, a situation that Pettersson could be in as well depending on what happens with Hughes. Point’s trajectory is different than Pettersson’s in that he started slower but had a dominant platform year which wasn’t an option for Pettersson but the per-game average numbers are somewhat close overall.

Platform Year Stats: 79 GP, 41-51-92, +27, 28 PIMS, 191 shots, 18:55 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 229 GP, 91-107-198 (0.86 points per game), +49, 66 PIMS, 530 shots, 18:38 ATOI
Contract: Three years, $20.25MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 8.28%
Current Equivalent: Same as above

Mathew Barzal (NY Islanders, 2021) – Barzal wasn’t able to repeat his rookie-season performance over his second and third years but still notched at least 60 points each time, a level of production Pettersson hit in his first two years, albeit with fewer games played. Like Point, this deal was basically forced by New York’s cap situation and as it was signed earlier this year, it also stands as the most recent comparable out there.

Platform Year Stats: 68 GP, 19-41-60, +5, 44 PIMS, 171 shots, 20:03 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 234 GP, 59-148-207 (0.88 points per game), -1, 126 PIMS, 520 shots, 18:25 ATOI
Contract: Three years, $21MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 8.59%
Current Equivalent: Same as above

Those are basically the only two comparable players in the price range that it’s going to cost on a short-term contract so let’s look at a few longer-term deals. The cost gets a lot higher with some UFA years being bought out as a result.

Jack Eichel (Buffalo, 2017) – Yes, this is a big contract but the offensive output between the two at the end of their entry-level deals is pretty close. Eichel had the strength of a higher draft seed (second) and the fact he was basically Buffalo’s franchise player from the moment he was drafted. Those gave him a bit of a boost that Pettersson might not be able to get but the numbers – which matter the most in contract talks – arguably have Pettersson in this range. This contract was also viewed as a reach at the time but it’s still usable as a comparable.

Platform Year Stats: 67 GP, 25-39-64, -25, 32 PIMS, 246 shots, 20:09 ATOI (deal was signed pre-platform)
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 209 GP, 73-104-177 (0.85 points per game), -54, 76 PIMS, 733 shots, 19:41 ATOI
Contract: Eight years, $80MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 13.33%
Current Equivalent: Eight years, $86.91MM ($10.864MM AAV)

Mikko Rantanen (Colorado, 2019) – The two players had very different trajectories – Rantanen started slow and then became a high-end performer while Pettersson has been more consistent – but again, the totals at the end of their respective entry-level deals are certainly comparable. It’s fair to question if Pettersson has the offensive ceiling that Rantanen does which is an argument GM Jim Benning would certainly use in talks when this comes up as a possible comparable deal.

Platform Year Stats: 74 GP, 31-56-87, +13, 54 PIMS, 193 shots, 20:51 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 239 GP, 80-129-209 (0.87 points per game), -19, 112 PIMS, 513 shots, 18:53 ATOI
Contract: Six years, $55.5MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 11.35%
Current Equivalent: Same as above

Mitch Marner (Toronto, 2019) – This one would certainly represent the high end of the scale but it’s important to get one player on here whose point per game average at the end of his entry-level deal is at the same mark as Pettersson’s. The only ones with a higher average that were recent high picks to sign long-term deals were Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid and Pettersson certainly isn’t in that range although that’s impressive company to be in. Again, Marner’s offensive trajectory was higher at this point than Pettersson’s is now which is why this basically represents a bar he won’t clear but he could come close.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 26-68-94, +22, 22 PIMS, 233 shots, 19:49 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 241 GP, 67-157-224 (0.93 points per game), +21, 86 PIMS, 603 shots, 17:41 ATOI
Contract: Six years, $65.408MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 13.38%
Current Equivalent: Same as above

Projected Contract

If you were looking at those last few comparables and thinking that Pettersson isn’t in that range, it’d certainly be understandable. The fact is that he hasn’t played anywhere as many games as those players have thanks to the wrist injury and the last two years being shortened. But the point per game average is there and Brisson is going to hammer that home in talks and not settle for considerably less than that. Accordingly, a long-term deal that buys out at least a couple of UFA-eligible seasons could very well have an AAV starting with a nine.

That’s why the short-term contract is the easier play here. If they’re able to work out a long-term deal with Hughes, they should still be able to afford a two-year or three-year bridge around the high $6MM/low $7MM range without creating any significant cap casualties. Either way, while they don’t necessarily have to have a deal done with Hughes beforehand, the two basically need to get their deals done pretty much around the same time. At this point, it may make more sense for Pettersson to get the short-term deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information via CapFriendly.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Seattle Kraken

September 16, 2021 at 6:52 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Seattle Kraken

Current Cap Hit: $73,106,666 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None projected to play a full-time role in the NHL this coming season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Mason Appleton ($900K, RFA)
F Colin Blackwell ($725K, UFA)
D Dennis Cholowski ($900K, RFA)
F Ryan Donato ($750K, RFA)
D Cale Fleury ($750K, RFA)
D Haydn Fleury ($1.4MM, UFA)
F Morgan Geekie ($750K, RFA)
D Mark Giordano ($6.75MM, UFA)
D Jeremy Lauzon ($825K, RFA)
F Kole Lind ($874K, RFA)
F Calle Jarnkrok ($2MM, UFA)
F Marcus Johansson ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Jared McCann ($2.94MM, RFA)
F Riley Sheahan ($850K, UFA)
F Carsen Twarynski ($750K, RFA)

McCann has shown flashes of being an above-average contributor in the past but hasn’t been able to do so consistently. He’ll get the chance to play a bigger role with Seattle and if it all comes together, he could be in line for a sizable pay bump next year. Jarnkrok has been on a bargain deal for the last five years and will also get to play a bigger role with a shot at bumping up his numbers before hitting the open market. Johansson and Sheahan are both coming off quiet years and have seen their value dip lately and will need stronger seasons to land guaranteed deals next summer. Appleton is coming off a strong season with Winnipeg and is already looking like a candidate to more than double his AAV next summer. A similar performance this season could triple it. Donato had to settle for a minimum contract after a tough year in San Jose but should be able to rebuild his value with the Kraken somewhat. Blackwell had a breakout year with the Rangers and is a candidate for a big jump in salary next summer. Geekie, Lind, and Twarynski will also be battling for depth roles but if they land a roster spot, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to land a big raise as they’d be in a limited role.

Giordano – who turns 38 next month – is nearing the end of his career but is still a capable top-four blueliner. He’s going to get an opportunity to play a bigger role than he probably should and he’s a candidate to be moved at the trade deadline to a contender who can cut his ice time. He’ll be going year to year from here on out and while his next deal will be cheaper than this, he could still command an AAV in the $5MM range. The Fleury brothers are at different stages of their careers. Haydn played close to the full season in 2020-21 and should be able to land a small raise a year from now while Cale was in the minors last season and is merely looking to stick on the roster. A limited role is likely which will yield a cheap deal next summer. Lauzon did well in Boston last year in his first stint of regular duty and with arbitration rights, he could double his current AAV next summer. Cholowski’s AAV is a little high for someone who may be on the fringes of making the roster but that may be by design in order to try to help sneak him through waivers next month.

Two Years Remaining

F Nathan Bastian ($825K, RFA)
D William Borgen ($900K, RFA)
F Joonas Donskoi ($3.9MM, UFA)
D Vince Dunn ($4MM, RFA)
D Carson Soucy ($2.75MM, UFA)

Donskoi hasn’t had a lot of consistent top-six opportunities but has surpassed the 30-point mark in each of the last four seasons. His price tag is a little high for his level of production but with a bigger role in Seattle, that could change. Bastian has basically just been an energy player in the early stages of his career and as long as he can hold down a spot on the roster, they won’t have any issues with his price tag. Gritty energy players can still land a pretty good payday as long as they can put up some production which is something Bastian will have to work on.

Dunn’s offensive production landed him a big raise this summer and it’s telling that Seattle opted for basically a second bridge contract to get one more opportunity to work out a long-term deal before he becomes UFA-eligible. He’s going to get the opportunity for a bigger role than he had with the Blues and if he can establish himself as a top-pairing player, that next deal could be quite a pricey one. Soucy is a serviceable third-pairing defenseman making a bit much for that role but Seattle has ample cap space to afford the small overpayment in the short term. Borgen is merely looking to establish himself as a regular NHL player so his next contract shouldn’t be much higher than this one unless he winds up in a big role fairly quickly.

Three Years Remaining

G Chris Driedger ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Jordan Eberle ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Alexander Wennberg ($4.5MM, UFA)

Eberle isn’t the top-line winger that he was in his prime but he’s still a fairly consistent secondary scorer. He’s going to be asked to do more than that in Seattle which could give him a chance to crack the 20-goal mark again, something he was on pace to do the last two shortened seasons. If he gets there, it may not be a bargain contract but they’ll get a reasonable return. Wennberg’s contract showed how difficult it is to land impact centers in free agency. He did well with Florida last season but was bought out by Columbus the year before after struggling in a top-six role and has only reached double-digit goals twice in his career. He’s going to have a big role with the Kraken and this is a contract that certainly carries some risk.

Driedger is one of the more impressive success stories in recent years. After bouncing around the minors, he finally got an opportunity with the Panthers and quickly became one of the better backups in the league. But with the late start, his track record is minimal – just 41 career NHL appearances and that includes playoff action. Landing a three-year commitment towards the upper echelon of price tags for a backup goaltender was pretty good, especially when it looked like he might be the starter. Of course, that changed early in free agency but Driedger should be able to still play enough games to justify the small premium for a backup netminder.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Yanni Gourde ($5.167MM through 2024-25)
G Philipp Grubauer ($5.9MM through 2026-27)
D Adam Larsson ($4MM through 2024-25)
D Jamie Oleksiak ($4.6MM through 2025-26)
F Jaden Schwartz ($5.5MM through 2025-26)
F Brandon Tanev ($3.5MM through 2024-25)

Schwartz is coming off a tough season with the Blues but he received that money with the expectation that he’ll get back to the level of play before that where he was a capable and consistent top-six forward. He’s one of only a few players who have seen top-line duty and he’ll have that role in Seattle so there will be a chance for him to live up to the deal. Gourde played an instrumental role for the Lightning in their two Stanley Cup titles but did so in a bottom-six spot. He won’t be in that role with the Kraken and should be their top center when healthy. Can he produce in a top role? If so, this could become quite a bargain in a hurry. Tanev is on a premium deal for someone who has been a grinder for most of his career but he has provided some production over the last three seasons to help justify the price tag.

Oleksiak earned a spot in Dallas’ top four for the first time last season and made the most of it, blowing past his previous high in average ice time while also setting a career-best in goals. However, this deal was above market value from the moment it was signed and giving that much in term and money to someone who has predominantly been on the third line carries some risk. Clearly, they think he can be a top-four piece moving forward and if that happens, they’ll get some return out of this contract. Larsson hasn’t lived up to his draft billing (fourth overall in 2011) but he has become a quality shutdown defender. Had he reached the open market and not signed in the expansion window, he’d have landed a similar deal elsewhere.

Grubauer joining Seattle was somewhat of a surprise but it’s a good fit. He was one of the top goalies in the league last season which gave him plenty of leverage on the open market. Whether he can carry the full workload of a starter remains to be seen – his career-high in games played came last season with 40 – which is where having Driedger on a higher-priced backup deal works as a quality, albeit largely unproven, insurance policy.

Buyouts

None (they weren’t allowed to buy anyone out this year)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Jarnkrok
Worst Value: Oleksiak

Looking Ahead

With spending as little as they did in expansion, Seattle had plenty of cap space to use this summer and they opted to exclusively do so in free agency over taking on a contract or two in exchange for other assets. That’s a decision that drew some ire right away but we’ll see over time if it was the right one. They have ample cap space this season and that shouldn’t change for a little while.

Some of their longer-term commitments could become poor value deals at some point but as long as they don’t spend to the Upper Limit right away – it doesn’t look like that’s the plan – then it shouldn’t be an issue even if some of those players underperform. As far as cap situations go, theirs is pretty clean.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Pittsburgh Penguins

September 15, 2021 at 6:56 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 9 Comments

Pittsburgh Penguins

Current Cap Hit: $81,378,205 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None projected to play a full-time role in the NHL this coming season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Zach Aston-Reese ($1.725MM, UFA)
F Jeff Carter ($2.636MM, UFA)*
G Casey DeSmith ($1.25MM, UFA)
D Mark Friedman ($725K, RFA)
F Danton Heinen ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Kasperi Kapanen ($3.2MM, RFA)
F Sam Lafferty ($750K, UFA)
D Kris Letang ($7.25MM, UFA)
F Evgeni Malkin ($9.5MM, UFA)
D Juuso Riikola ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Evan Rodrigues ($1MM, UFA)
D Chad Ruhwedel ($750K, UFA)
F Bryan Rust ($3.5MM, UFA)

*-Los Angeles is paying 50% of Carter’s cap hit.

Malkin had a quiet year by his standards last season as he notched 28 points in 33 games and isn’t expected to be ready to start the upcoming campaign due to knee surgery. Now 35, Malkin’s days of being an elite producer may have come to an end which means a pay cut should be on the horizon. Rust didn’t put up a point per game last season but still produced at a top-line level. Showing that over a full season would have him very well-positioned for a sizable raise on his next deal. Kapanen’s second go-round in Pittsburgh was better than his first as he established himself as a strong second-liner. He’ll be a year away from UFA eligibility at the end of this contract so a long-term, pricier contract is heading his way. If not, he’d be wise to just file for arbitration and head to the open market in 2023.

Carter made an immediate impact after coming over from Los Angeles, notching 13 goals in 20 games (regular season and playoffs combined). If he even comes close to that pace this coming season, they’ll get good value on the contract and Carter, who seemed to be a candidate to retire when this deal was up, could wind up sticking around the league a little longer. Aston-Reese couldn’t work out a long-term contract (the cap situation played a role in that) which sends him to the open market next summer. The market for bottom-six players improved considerably this offseason which bodes quite well for his future earnings. Heinen was non-tendered by Anaheim following a tough run with them and lands in a favorable situation where he’ll be in a better offensive environment to try to rebuild his value. He can be controlled through a qualifying offer although salary arbitration could be a factor. Rodrigues was a serviceable role player and got a small raise this summer but unless his offensive numbers take a step forward, he won’t get much of one next year. Lafferty brings grit but not a lot of production which will keep his price tag close to the minimum moving forward.

While Malkin is probably heading for a smaller salary, the same can’t necessarily be said for Letang, another long-time core piece that’s set to hit the open market. The top-end production is still there as he very quietly finished tied for third in the league for points by a defenseman last season. With the way the cost for top-pairing blueliners has gone up, Letang could have a decent case for a small raise. If he’s willing to take a discount to stay in Pittsburgh – a reasonable possibility – the discount may simply be signing for something close to what he’s making now. He’ll be subject to 35-plus provisions (unless a multi-year deal has equal compensation throughout) on his next contract but Letang still should still land a multi-year commitment. Ruhwedel and Friedman are depth defenders whose biggest value comes from their low cap hits and those will need to be low-cost slots beyond this season.

DeSmith returned to the NHL last season after being the third-stringer in 2019-20 and the results were mixed as Pittsburgh’s goaltending ran hot and cold at times but overall, he provided slightly above average numbers at a price tag well below many recent backup signings. A repeat showing could put him in a spot to double his current AAV next summer.

Two Years Remaining

F Teddy Blueger ($2.2MM, UFA)
D Brian Dumoulin ($4.1MM, UFA)
G Tristan Jarry ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Radim Zohorna ($750K, UFA)
F Jason Zucker ($5.5MM, UFA)

At the time that Pittsburgh acquired Zucker, his contract looked more than reasonable. He was a quality top-six winger with the expectation that joining the Penguins would help improve his production. That hasn’t happened and he wound up being unclaimed in expansion. All of a sudden, his deal is an overpayment relative to the production he has provided which won’t help his market value two years from now. Blueger has become an important bottom-six piece and should have an opportunity to play a bit of a bigger role this season. Even capable bottom-six centers can land notable contracts so he should be looking at a raise in 2023. Zohorna held his own in his NHL debut last season but is waiver-exempt for one more year. He’s likely to be shuffled back and forth as a result to save some money on the cap.

Dumoulin doesn’t generate a lot of buzz around the league but he has been a key cog on their back end for several years. His limited offensive production won’t help his chances of landing top dollar in free agency but as a reliable defensive defender that can log top-pairing minutes, he’s still looking at a fairly hefty raise on his next deal.

Jarry’s first season as the undisputed number one goalie didn’t exactly go as planned. He struggled with consistency throughout the year with a propensity for allowing untimely weak goals. Even so, he’s still only making what a top backup does so while he was overpaid for what he did last season, it wasn’t by as much as it might seem. Needless to say, he’ll have to be a lot better to get a contract for number one money two years from now.

Three Years Remaining

F Jake Guentzel ($6MM, UFA)

Guentzel was once again slightly above the point per game mark last season and has basically been a point per game player over the last three seasons. Not many can say that and even fewer have an AAV that is closer to a second-liner than a top-line forward. He’s still young enough to land close to a max-term contract in his next negotiation and it could be a pricey one if this keeps up.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Sidney Crosby ($8.7MM through 2024-25)
D John Marino ($4.4MM through 2026-27)
D Mike Matheson ($4.875MM through 2025-26)
F Brock McGinn ($2.75MM through 2024-25)
D Marcus Pettersson ($4.025MM through 2024-25)

Crosby’s deal is one of the now-outlawed back-diving ones that sees his salary dip to just $3MM in each of the final three seasons. He isn’t the top scorer in the league like he once was but he’s still a capable number one center making below what top pivots get on the open market. There’s always the possibility that he starts to tail off by the end but with the surplus value they’ve had so far, they’re not going to complain. McGinn was Pittsburgh’s big summer signing and is coming off a quiet year with Carolina but his track record was enough to warrant the four-year deal. They’ll need him to rebound to the form of a few years ago offensively to get value from this contract.

Matheson did a little better in his first season with Pittsburgh compared to how things ended in Florida. Having said that, his performance wasn’t at a near-$5MM level and is one of the bigger overpayments on their books. Marino’s sophomore year didn’t go as planned which makes this contract look a bit riskier than it appeared when it was signed although with barely 100 career NHL games under his belt, that can still change in a hurry. Pettersson has gone from being someone they thought could be a fixture in their top four to a player that has a firm grip on the number six spot on the depth chart. Between the three, they have a lot of money tied up in relatively unproven defenders.

Buyouts

D Jack Johnson ($1.167MM in 2021-22, $1.917MM in 2022-23, $917K from 2023-24 through 2025-26)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Rust
Worst Value: Pettersson

Looking Ahead

The Penguins have consistently had cap challenges over the past several years and this coming season should be no exception. When everyone is healthy (and that might take a while with Malkin’s situation), they will have to carry fewer than the maximum 23 players and may not be able to generate much in the way of in-season cap flexibility. That will also likely limit the opportunities for some of their prospects to try to establish themselves as those spots will need to be held by cheaper veterans.

Having said that, with nearly $33MM coming off the books next summer, there will be an opportunity for GM Ron Hextall to reshape his roster if he so desires. The bulk of that will go to new contracts for Malkin and Letang but there should be some room to work with still. On a long-term basis, the books are relatively clean with few longer-term commitments although they will need better performances from their young defensemen to justify their price tags moving forward.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: San Jose Sharks

September 12, 2021 at 7:55 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

San Jose Sharks

Current Cap Hit: $78,138,334 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Mario Ferraro ($925K in 2021-22)
D Nikolai Knyzhov ($797K in 2021-22)
F John Leonard ($925K in 2021-22)

Leonard managed to hold down a regular spot in the lineup in his rookie season, albeit in a limited role. Barring a jump forward offensively, he’s unlikely to land much more than his current price tag on his second contract which would almost certainly be a short-term one.

Ferraro’s sophomore season didn’t see him upping his production all that much but his role certainly changed. Instead of being on the third pairing in sheltered minutes, the 22-year-old was a regular on the top pairing, playing in all situations. There’s little reason to think that will change this coming season and while limited production will limit his earnings upside, Ferraro could triple his current AAV on a bridge deal. Knyzhov had the role that Ferraro had in his rookie season, seeing some sheltered minutes on the third pairing but played in every game. Even if he stays in that role in 2021-22, he’ll be able to pass the $1MM mark on his second contract.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Alexander Barabanov ($1MM, UFA)
F Andrew Cogliano ($1MM, UFA)
F Jonathan Dahlen ($750K, RFA)
D Dylan Gambrell ($1.1MM, RFA)
F Tomas Hertl ($5.625MM, UFA)
D Nicolas Meloche ($750K, RFA)
F Nick Merkley ($750K, RFA)

Hertl’s name has been in trade speculation over the last couple of weeks following some comments earlier this month that suggested he may not be with the Sharks beyond the upcoming season. He has become their top-producing center, successfully making the transition from playing the wing at the start of his career. In doing so, his market value has increased considerably. While he may not be able to market himself as a true number one center, quality middlemen are always in high demand and low supply on the open market. Accordingly, a $2MM jump in AAV seems realistic and if it’s not coming from the Sharks, will whoever acquires him closer to the trade deadline hand him an extension as part of the swap?

Gambrell had a big jump in playing time last season but the production was still middling. He’s serviceable in a limited role and can kill penalties but that’s not a spot where they can afford to pay much more than what they’re currently paying and his arbitration eligibility could work against him. Cogliano is a capable placeholding veteran that could be a trade candidate if they’re out of contention at the trade deadline. He’ll be subject to the 35-plus designation next year so he’ll probably be going year-to-year from here on out. Barabanov did well in a very limited stretch after coming over from Toronto and should get a shot at a bigger role. A good showing could have him in line for a considerable raise but if that doesn’t happen, he’ll be a candidate to go back to the KHL. Dahlen managed to land a one-way deal which is impressive for someone who played in Sweden’s second division last season. He’ll get a shot at earning a regular spot in camp and if that doesn’t happen, his time in North America could be short-lived. Merkley came over in an offseason trade from New Jersey and will push for a spot on the fourth line; that roster spot will likely continue to be filled by someone making the minimum or close to it moving forward.

Meloche split last season between the Sharks and the taxi squad and at this point, they’re likely to carry a seventh defender that can clear waivers and go back and forth when needed. He’ll battle Jacob Middleton ($725K) for that role unless someone else is brought in between now and then.

Two Years Remaining

F Rudolfs Balcers ($1.55MM, RFA)
F Nick Bonino ($2.05MM, UFA)
D Adin Hill ($2.175MM, UFA)
F Timo Meier ($6MM, RFA)
F Matt Nieto ($850K, UFA)
F Lane Pederson ($750K, RFA)
G James Reimer ($2.25MM, UFA)

Meier hasn’t been able to get back to the per-game production he had before signing this contract, one that carries the poison pill of a $10MM qualifying offer at its expiry. It’d be hard to justify paying him that much while that qualifier also hurts his trade value unless an early extension can be worked out in 2022-23. Bonino came over in free agency, signing a deal that was below our projection for him. As far as third centers go, he’s a decent one on a below-market contract. Balcers has been one of the better recent waiver claims around the league and is in a spot where he can play a regular middle-six role. As long as he stays there, they’ll get a good return on this deal. Nieto and Pederson will be cheap depth players and will be retained around that price point or replaced by someone else making that money.

Hill hasn’t had much of an NHL opportunity but he’ll get one now as he goes from being Arizona’s backup to the starter with the Sharks. We’ve seen the type of money even top backups get let alone starters; both are price points well beyond what he’s making now so the opportunity for a big jump in salary will soon be there. Reimer returns for his second stint with the Sharks and after effectively being relegated to third-string duty in Carolina by the end of the year, he still landed a decent contract. He’ll be 35 for next trip to free agency and likely will have to go year-to-year at that point.

Three Years Remaining

F Kevin Labanc ($4.725MM, UFA)
D Radim Simek ($2.25MM, UFA)

Labanc’s contract was a pricey one for the year he was coming off of but it was also a reward for taking a very team-friendly deal the year before. Unfortunately for him and the Sharks, last season wasn’t much of an improvement. If he gets even close to his 2018-19 numbers, they will get a reasonable return on his deal but right now, this one is a bit of an overpayment.

Simek’s deal also falls under that category. He was their sixth defender some nights and that type of term and money for someone in that role is not good value.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Brent Burns ($8MM through 2024-25)
F Logan Couture ($8MM through 2026-27)
F Evander Kane ($7MM through 2024-25)
D Erik Karlsson ($11.5MM through 2026-27)
D Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($7MM through 2025-26)

Couture’s per-game numbers have dipped the past two years, moving him from production worthy of a spot on the front line to more of second-line output instead. In the process, his contract went from a market-value one to an overpayment. At his age, a rebound to that type of production can’t simply be expected which means they may not be getting a great return on this deal moving forward. In terms of on-ice production, Kane actually provided good value for the Sharks last season. Overall, it’s a bit of a high price tag but power forwards get big money. Of course, there is way more to Kane than simply the on-ice element and the off-ice stuff simply craters his value. Instead of being the one big contract that actually gives the Sharks somewhat of a palatable return, it’s another anchor for them as things currently stand.

Then there are the defensemen. Karlsson hasn’t come close to living up to his deal and his production has tapered off which is alarming for someone whose offensive game is what got him that record-setting contract in the first place. Burns is still an impact defender but not a true number one anymore. He’s also 36 with four more years left on his contract. The drop is coming and when it does, it will hurt. The drop has already come for Vlasic who is more of a limited role player but is going to be paid number two money for the next half-decade.

Buyouts

G Martin Jones ($1.917MM in 21-22, $2.417MM in 22-23, $2.917MM in 23-24, $1.667MM from 24-25 through 26-27)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

F Noah Gregor – Gregor has played in 58 career NHL games, notching just 11 points. His contract shouldn’t cost much more than the minimum and at this point, the AHL salary is likely what’s still being discussed.

Best Value: Bonino
Worst Value: Karlsson

Looking Ahead

For the upcoming season, things aren’t too bad. There is some flexibility to work with for in-season movement which has them in better shape than a lot of teams. Meier’s deal is an upcoming pressure point but that’s more likely to be dealt with next season than this one.

Unfortunately for the Sharks, they have over $43MM tied up in the five players signed beyond the next three seasons plus Jones’ buyout. They’re not getting good value on any of those contracts and the cap is only going to go up gradually. Basically half of their cap space – likely a bit more by the time the Upper Limit is set for a few years from now – is in negative-value contracts. It’s hard to build a contender with maybe a little over $40MM. That was doable when the cap came in in 2005-06 – it won’t be two decades later but that’s the path they’re heading towards.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: St. Louis Blues

September 11, 2021 at 10:45 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 6 Comments

St. Louis Blues

Current Cap Hit: $79,968,849 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None projected to play with some regularity at the NHL level this coming season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Robert Bortuzzo ($1.375MM, UFA)
F Kyle Clifford ($1MM, UFA)
G Ville Husso ($750K, UFA)
F Mackenzie MacEachern ($900K, UFA)
D Niko Mikkola ($788K, RFA)
F David Perron ($4MM, UFA)
F Zach Sanford ($2MM, UFA)
D Jake Walman ($725K, RFA)

Some players just fit on a certain team and that appears to be the case for Perron who has vastly outperformed his contract in this, his third go-around with the organization. He cracked the point per game mark last season for the first time in his career and a repeat performance would set him up for a considerable raise if he opted to test free agency. Given that he has already come back twice though, it’s also understandable to think that he may take a little less to stay where he’s comfortable. Sanford has been a capable depth scorer the last few seasons and after seeing that market bounce back a bit for unrestricted free agents this summer, he should be able to land a small raise. If they have to spend more to retain Perron though, some of that money may come from Sanford’s expiring deal. Clifford had a limited role last season and a similar showing will have him looking at playing for the minimum salary in 2022-23. MacEachern has been a depth piece and will need to establish himself as a regular to have a shot at a nominal raise moving forward; his spot will likely need to go to someone making the minimum beyond this season.

Bortuzzo has had a limited role the last few seasons and while they may want to keep him around in that same role, it’s hard to see him getting more on his next deal as players logging the minutes he does often sign for the minimum or close to it. Mikkola will have a chance to push for a regular spot on the third pairing but as he hasn’t produced much even in the minors, a minor pay bump is likelier than a big jump. Walman will be battling Mikkola for that spot and while he has produced more in the minors, again, only a small raise is probable unless one of them really takes a big step and locks down a spot in the top four.

Husso’s first NHL opportunity didn’t go as well as he or the Blues had hoped for but with their cap situation, they couldn’t really afford to bring in a more proven backup. That’s the case again for 2021-22 where he’ll get a chance to prove himself as a viable NHL second option. If it doesn’t happen, he may be back to looking for two-way deals. Either way, St. Louis will need to stay with a low-priced backup to make their salary structure work.

Two Years Remaining

F Ivan Barbashev ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Jordan Kyrou ($2.8MM, UFA)
F Ryan O’Reilly ($7.5MM, UFA)
F Oskar Sundqvist ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Vladimir Tarasenko ($7.5MM, UFA)

When Buffalo signed O’Reilly to this contract just one year after acquiring him from Colorado back in 2016, the price tag seemed steep. The hope was that he’d become a top-line center but it took getting traded again for him to truly get to that level. With St. Louis, O’Reilly has upped his production while continuing his strong defensive play, earning a Selke Trophy and finishing in the top five in voting the other two seasons. He has made a case for a small raise – he doesn’t put up elite offensive numbers to get him into that $10MM or more tier – but he’ll be 32 when his next contract starts, taking away the potential for a max-term pact.

On the other end of the scale is Tarasenko. You all know the story by now, multiple shoulder surgeries, decreased offensive production, and a mutual desire for a change of scenery though one has yet to materialize. He’ll need to bounce back in a big way to have a shot at a contract anywhere near this two years from now. Kyrou’s first full NHL season was a strong one but with his limited track record and their cap situation, a bridge deal was the only way to go. He’ll at least get a small raise with a $3.2MM qualifying offer but it also wouldn’t be shocking to see him double his current AAV on a long-term pact. Sundqvist, when healthy, has become a capable third liner and as a center, he plays a premium position but he will need to improve his production if he wants more than a nominal raise two years from now. The same can be said for Barbashev who, while he has been used more as a winger, can also play down the middle which will help his value on the open market.

Three Years Remaining

D Marco Scandella ($3.275MM, UFA)

Scandella made an immediate impact after being acquired from Montreal in 2020, earning this extension soon after. He doesn’t produce much but is a capable shutdown defender that can play on the second pairing. It’s not a value contract but it’s not an overpayment either.

Four Or More Years Remaining

G Jordan Binnington ($6MM through 2026-27)
F Pavel Buchnevich ($5.8MM through 2024-25)
D Justin Faulk ($6.5MM through 2026-27)
D Torey Krug ($6.5MM through 2026-27)
D Colton Parayko ($5.5MM in 2021-22, $6.5MM through 2029-30)
F Brandon Saad ($4.5MM through 2025-26)
F Brayden Schenn ($6.5MM through 2027-28)

Schenn’s production dipped a bit last season in terms of his per-game rates which is worth noting given that he is paid to be a key offensive piece but after five seasons of 50-plus points before that, it’s also reasonable to expect he’ll bounce back and if that happens, they’ll get a reasonable bang for their buck. Buchnevich was brought in to bolster their offense after a career year with the Rangers where he hovered near a point per game. Production around that mark would be a great return for the Blues. Saad effectively replaces Mike Hoffman who signed for the same cap hit with Montreal. He won’t produce as much but will impact the game in more ways as well. He was a little overpaid on his last contract based on his output and this deal is a good one for someone who should be in the top six for most of it.

Faulk’s second season in St. Louis was much better than his first as he moved up to their top pairing and held his own. His dip in production should be a little concerning given that his offensive output is a big part of his value. The back years may be concerning but in the short term, he’ll give them a decent return on their investment. Krug’s first season in St. Louis was as expected; he added some mobility and playmaking to their back end and as long as that continues, they’ll be fine with the contract. Parayko is coming off an injury-plagued year which kept the price tag on his extension down but also increased the risk. He’s a top-pairing piece when healthy but they will need his production to come more consistently to justify the higher price tag over the long term.

Binnington hasn’t been able to replicate his rookie season performance or even come close to that level over the last two years. Instead, he has been closer to league average in both years. He’s making a bit over the median salary for a starter so it’s a bit of an above-market contract as a result but not to the point where it should be a concern for the Blues.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

F Robert Thomas – Last season was a tough one for Thomas who was limited to just a dozen points in 33 games which certainly doesn’t help his case as he looks for a new contract. However, he was a legitimate secondary scorer the year before with 42 points in 66 contests and his camp is undoubtedly trying to use that as the basis for a new deal. With the dip last season and their cap situation, a bridge contract is the likeliest scenario with something similar to Kyrou’s deal seemingly being a reasonable settling point for both sides.

Best Value: Perron
Worst Value: Tarasenko

Looking Ahead

Assuming Sundqvist is able to return from his torn ACL in time for training camp and not need any time on LTIR, the Blues will likely be over the cap once the deal for Thomas gets done. Moving Tarasenko would certainly free up some money (and might also allow them to bring back Tyler Bozak) but it doesn’t look like such a move is happening. If not him, someone else will need to move before too long.

Their situation is relatively clean beyond this season though. There’s enough space to re-sign key players like Perron and O’Reilly when their respective deals expire and while that will keep them at or just below the Upper Limit, those new contracts shouldn’t require moving other players out. On the other hand, there won’t be room to add to the core beyond what has already been done either so there may not be a lot of changes coming over the next couple of years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Tampa Bay Lightning

September 9, 2021 at 9:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

Tampa Bay Lightning

Current Cap Hit: $88,365,955 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None projected to play with some regularity at the NHL level this coming season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Brian Elliott ($900K, UFA)
F Mathieu Joseph ($737.5K, RFA)
F Pat Maroon ($900K, UFA)
F Ondrej Palat ($5.3MM, UFA)
D Jan Rutta ($1.3MM, UFA)

After a few quieter years, Palat had a strong bounce-back campaign in 2020-21, finishing second in team scoring and producing at a top-line rate for the first time in a while. That made him a viable candidate for Seattle to pick in expansion although they opted for Yanni Gourde instead. Palat will be 31 when he signs his next deal which means a long-term pact is likely off the table but a medium-term one around this is likely. If he wants to stick around, GM Julien BriseBois may push for something a little lower. Maroon has signed for cheap the last few years and as long as he has a chance to win, he’ll probably keep taking those types of contracts. If not, that spot will be filled by someone else willing to play for close to the minimum. Joseph stands out as a viable offer sheet candidate next summer; assuming he has a good season, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to afford to keep him and re-sign Palat. If a team thinks he’s worthy of a bigger role and wants to pay him for it, that could put the Lightning in a bit of a bind.

Rutta has been a serviceable player on the third pairing since joining them in 2019 and if that continues, he could be in line for a small raise. That said, this feels like a spot for Tampa to try to go a little cheaper to free up some flexibility.

Last year was a tough one for Elliott in Philadelphia which significantly hurt his value heading into free agency. That, combined with Tampa Bay needing a cheap replacement for Curtis McElhinney, made for a good combination here. At this stage of his career, he’ll be going year-to-year on his next contracts so how he fares this season will determine if he has a chance of getting back towards that higher echelon of backups in terms of salary.

Two Years Remaining

F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare ($1MM, UFA)
D Erik Cernak ($2.95MM, RFA)
F Anthony Cirelli ($4.8MM, RFA)
F Ross Colton ($1.125MM, RFA)
D Cal Foote ($850K, RFA)
F Alex Killorn ($4.45MM, UFA)
F Corey Perry ($1MM, UFA)
D Mikhail Sergachev ($4.8MM, RFA)

Things may not have looked too bad after the last group but that starts to change here with several young players expiring after this time. Cirelli is coming off a quiet year but produced at a much better level the previous two seasons. Even if not, his qualifying offer will check in at $5.76MM (120% of his AAV) so a raise is coming. Killorn has been a reliable secondary scorer for several years but with the RFAs on this list, it certainly looks like their raises will squeeze him out; with prices for secondary scoring dropping a bit lately, Killorn may be looking at a small dip if he continues to hover around the 40-point mark. Colton is in line for a bigger role next season following a strong showing in the playoffs which likely has him on a trajectory for a bigger deal as well. Perry and Bellemare are quality veterans who can anchor the fourth line or move up in a pinch; both likely left money on the table to go to the Lightning which is something that can be said for quite a few others on their team.

Sergachev has established himself as a quality piece on the second pairing and at 23, there’s still room for growth. He’s on the same contract as Cirelli so a higher qualifying offer will be coming in the 2023 offseason and likely a bigger deal than that. Cernak doesn’t light up the scoresheet but as a top-four right-shot defender, he’s going to be in line for a significant raise beyond his $3.54MM qualifier as well. If Foote is able to establish himself as a full-time player by the time his deal is up, doubling his AAV or more isn’t out of the question either. Big raises are coming from this group.

Three Years Remaining

F Alex Barre-Boulet ($758K, UFA)
D Zach Bogosian ($850K, UFA)
D Brent Seabrook ($6.875MM, UFA)
F Steven Stamkos ($8.5MM, UFA)

Stamkos is going to be one of the more interesting contracts for Tampa Bay to handle. He’ll be 34 when it starts so he should still have a few good years left in him but with the anticipated higher costs from their RFAs in the last group, it’s quite difficult to see them being able to afford a market-value contract for their captain unless there’s a significant contract moved out by then. Injuries have limited his usefulness lately and if that trend continues, his value will dip considerably. Barre-Boulet isn’t too established at the NHL level yet but he has scored in junior and in the minors and won’t need to do much to live up to a near-minimum contract. Assuming he produces – a reasonable one to make – this could be a nice value contract for them.

Bogosian also should be a value contract but is on the opposite side of his career. He could have gotten more elsewhere or even going year-to-year but opted for some stability with a chance to win.

Seabrook was acquired as part of the Tyler Johnson trade but his playing days are already over. He’ll return to LTIR next season.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Victor Hedman ($7.875MM through 2024-25)
F Nikita Kucherov ($9.5MM through 2026-27)
D Ryan McDonagh ($6.75MM through 2025-26)
F Brayden Point ($6.75MM in 2021-22, $9.5MM from 2022-23 through 2029-30)
G Andrei Vasilevskiy ($9.5MM through 2027-28)

Kucherov is an elite point producer on a contract that is lower than some of the top ones handed out to top wingers on the open market. As long as the hip issue that cost him all of last season is gone – his playoff performance suggested it was – this will be a bargain as far as high-end contracts go. Point’s bridge deal is very much a bargain for a bona fide number one center and even his next contract should be viewed as a below-market one relative to what other top centers can get. Both of these deals are pricey but Tampa Bay should get good returns on each of them.

They’ve had a great return on Hedman’s contract so far. He has provided Norris-caliber defending in each of the first four seasons of the deal and there’s little reason to expect that to change anytime soon. Considering the value in which lower-end number ones were paid this summer and the pricier deals for veterans before that, Hedman’s contract is several million below market value. McDonagh has become more of a complementary defender the last couple of seasons as Cernak and Sergachev have taken on bigger roles which has made McDonagh more of a luxury. At some point, it may not be one they’re able to afford but for now, he rounds out a very strong top four on the back end.

Vasilevskiy is the third-highest-paid goalie in the league behind Montreal’s Carey Price and Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky and is $4.5MM ahead of the median AAV among starters at a time where teams are opting more towards lower-cost tandems. And yet, you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone inside the organization that isn’t happy with his contract. His showing in the playoffs – out-dueling Price in the Stanley Cup Final – cemented his status as the best in the game and at 27, it’s a mantle he can hold for several more years. They’ll have to keep going with cheap backups for years to come but that’s a small price to pay to get this level of goaltending.

Buyouts

F Vincent Lecavalier ($1.762MM through 2026-27; $0 cap hit as it was a compliance buyout in 2013)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Hedman
Worst Value: McDonagh

Looking Ahead

It’ll be same old, same old for the Lightning in 2021-22 as they’ll be tight to the cap, even with the LTIR relief from Seabrook. That isn’t going away anytime soon. Next summer could be a bit of a quieter one from the standpoint of veterans moving on with Palat being the only notable expiring contract and it’s possible that they can create enough wiggle room elsewhere to bring him back.

The 2022-23 summer will be the one to watch for as some big raises are on the horizon for their restricted free agents and some veterans will need to be jettisoned at that time for those contracts to be signed. But that’s still a couple of years away and between now and then, there may be a bit more stability than we’ve seen the last couple of offseasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Toronto Maple Leafs

September 6, 2021 at 7:57 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

Toronto Maple Leafs

Current Cap Hit: $82,894,783 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Timothy Liljegren ($863K in 2021-22)
D Rasmus Sandin ($894K in 2021-22)

Potential Bonuses
Liljegren: $400K

Sandin saw limited action with Toronto last season but suited up in five of their seven playoff games and with the departure of Zach Bogosian, a top-six spot should be his for the taking in training camp. While he has shown offensive upside at the lower levels, it hasn’t yet materialized in the NHL and barring a big year on that front, he’s someone that will likely need to sign a cheap one-year deal to preserve as much cap flexibility for Toronto as possible. Liljegren also figures to get a look in training camp and should be one of the first recalls otherwise. He’s also a candidate for a one-year deal after the season, likely for the league minimum either on a one-way contract or with a higher AHL salary.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Adam Brooks ($725K, RFA)
G Jack Campbell ($1.65MM, UFA)
F Pierre Engvall ($1.25MM, RFA)
F Kurtis Gabriel ($750K, UFA)
F Ondrej Kase ($1.25MM, RFA)
F Ilya Mikheyev ($1.645MM, UFA)
D Morgan Rielly ($5MM, UFA)
F Jason Spezza ($750K, UFA)

Mikheyev has shown some flashes of being a quality secondary scorer but consistency has been an issue so far. With the Maple Leafs likely wanting to funnel some money towards a pair of notable UFAs in this list, it’s possible that he becomes a casualty with an eye on someone making less money taking his spot. Engvall, who was in and out of the lineup last season, also falls under that category. Kase was a very interesting signing this summer – he’s talented enough to be a top-six player but concussions have limited him lately. If he stays healthy for the full season, he should provide a strong return on this deal. Spezza should again provide some surplus value from the fourth line and has passed up chances to make more on the open market to play at home. Gabriel will have a limited role when he’s in the lineup and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to sneak him through waivers for cap flexibility purposes; the same can be said for Brooks who has done well in limited duty but Toronto can’t afford to carry a 23-player roster. These last three roster spots will need to be filled by minimum-salaried players for the foreseeable future.

Rielly has been Toronto’s top defenseman over the past several years and his contract has proven to be quite the bargain over that span. That is going to change for 2022-23. Even though he is coming off a quieter year offensively and likely isn’t going to be a 72-point player moving forward like he was in 2018-19, he’s a top-pairing player for the Maple Leafs and would be for many other teams as well. He’ll hit the market at 28 where he can command a max-term contract and will have the offensive numbers to land a sizable raise. Something over $7MM seems likely at this point and a big year could make that price tag even higher.

As for Campbell, he has been everything Toronto could have hoped for. He came in and stabilized the backup position in 2020 and then played quite well down the stretch, earning the number one job for the playoffs where he only allowed 13 goals in their seven-game series loss to Montreal. Even so, he still doesn’t have 100 career NHL appearances. That will limit his earnings ceiling unless he can establish himself as a 50-game goalie or more which is going to be hard to do. He still should be able to double his current price tag based on recent comparables but starter money may be a stretch.

Two Years Remaining

F Joey Anderson ($750K, RFA)
F Michael Bunting ($950K, UFA)
D Travis Dermott ($1.5MM, RFA)
D Justin Holl ($2MM, UFA)
F David Kampf ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Alexander Kerfoot ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Nick Ritchie ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Wayne Simmonds ($900K, UFA)

Kerfoot has been involved in trade speculation for a while now being the highest-paid forward outside of their top-paid pieces. However, his ability to play in all situations has made him valuable enough that they’ve made other moves instead and kept him on the roster. He doesn’t produce enough to line himself up for a big raise two years from now but the fact he can play center will give him a strong market where he could come close to matching his current AAV. Ritchie was non-tendered by Boston and landed quickly with the Maple Leafs. He has shown the ability to play in the top-six, albeit inconsistently. If he can be that type of player more frequently, he’s young enough to command a significant raise the next time he hits the open market. Kampf was another non-tender this summer, this time by Chicago and will be a key checker for Toronto. Scoring has been a challenge for him which limits his earnings upside considerably. Bunting used a strong second half to land a one-way deal and he’ll have a chance to outperform that if he lands a spot in their top nine. Simmonds took a pay cut to stick around and was rewarded with a no-trade clause in return. Anderson hasn’t played much with Toronto but he’s now waiver-eligible and would be at risk at being claimed. That could keep him on the roster as a result.

Holl has been a nice success story for the Maple Leafs. After not really being able to crack the lineup under former coach Mike Babcock, he has since established himself as a quality second pair defender at a price tag that is well below market value for someone in the top four. He’ll be in line for a fairly significant raise two years from now. Dermott has come along a little slower than they may have hoped but he’s a regular on their third pairing and should get an opportunity to play a bit more than the 13 minutes a game from last season. If that happens, they’ll get good value on his deal. Dermott has one more crack at arbitration eligibility and will be owed a $1.75MM qualifying offer.

Three Years Remaining

D T.J. Brodie ($5MM, UFA)
F Auston Matthews ($11.034MM, UFA)
G Petr Mrazek ($3.8MM, UFA)
D Jake Muzzin ($5.625MM, UFA)
F William Nylander ($6.962MM, UFA)

Matthews led the league in goals last season and it’s only a matter of time before he notches 50 in a single season. At first glance, it may seem like someone making that much could be in line for a raise on his next deal but as an elite scorer playing a premium position (center) and the fact he’ll hit the open market at 26, the odds are pretty high that he’ll command a bigger contract next time around. The same can be said for Nylander who has either reached the 60-point mark or played at that pace in four of the last five seasons. By the time he reaches free agency, the cap will have gone up a little bit and he should be well-positioned to be one of the higher-paid wingers in free agency.

Muzzin has been an integral part of their back end since coming over in 2019 from the Kings. He has helped form a stabilizing defensive pairing but is good enough to still contribute offensively. He’s a high-end second pairing piece and with the way the market was for defenders this summer, it’s safe to say he’s now on a bit of a below-market deal. Brodie has seen his production drop off the last couple of years but he’s still strong in his own end and was a good partner for Rielly last season. The contract may be a bit high given the falloff in his offensive numbers but with the top-end offense they have, a jump in scoring can’t be ruled out.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Mitch Marner ($10.903MM through 2024-25)
F John Tavares ($11MM through 2024-25)

Tavares certainly hasn’t played poorly since joining Toronto but he hasn’t exactly lived up to being one of the highest-paid centers in the league. To be fair though, that’s harder to prove on the second line behind Matthews. Toronto paid a high premium to have two elite centers and while he’s undoubtedly still a high-end player, they’re not getting full value either. Marner has racked up the points in the regular season to the point where it can be suggested that they’re getting a good return on their investment but his playoff performances have ended his last couple of years on a down note. He’ll need to improve his showing there if he wants a shot at a bigger deal next time around, something that won’t be the case for Tavares since he’ll be entering his age-35 season on his next contract.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

F Phil Kessel ($1.2MM in 2021-22)

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Holl
Worst Value: Tavares

Looking Ahead

Not much is going to change for the next few years. Toronto is going to carry a smaller roster to preserve cap space (that’s how they’ll get cap-compliant for 2021-22) and as more key players re-sign (if they can afford to keep Rielly, Campbell, and Holl, among others), more roster spots will have to go to low-cost players, further widening the gap between the top-paid pieces and everyone else. But this is the road they committed to and with the group they have on paper, it still could pan out.

With minimal long-term commitments on their books, there will be some flexibility when it comes time to re-sign those core pieces. GM Kyle Dubas added some short-term depth pieces and if that’s the strategy over the next couple of years as well, he’ll have an opportunity to start to reshape things at that time if they’re unable to get over the playoff hump with their current core.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vancouver Canucks

September 5, 2021 at 8:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Vancouver Canucks

Current Cap Hit: $70,835,659 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Nils Hoglander ($892K through 2022-23)
F Vasili Podkolzin ($925K through 2023-24)
D Jack Rathbone ($925K through 2021-22)

Potential Bonuses
Hoglander: $200K
Podkolzin: $850K
Rathbone: $850K
Total: $1.9MM

Hoglander had a nice rookie season, notching 27 points in 56 games while finishing eighth in Calder Trophy voting. He’s likely to be in a middle-six role for the next couple of years which could have him in bridge contract territory although if he’s able to improve his production a little bit, his camp could look at recent deals for Joel Farabee and Drake Batherson as potential comparables. Podkolzin is coming to North America after spending the last two years in the KHL and should play a regular role fairly quickly. They may ease him based on their current winger situation which makes it tough to project his next contract but he’s someone that should be part of their long-term plans and will get more expensive over time.

Rathbone didn’t look out of place in a late stint last season but with their depth, he will likely have to start in the minors. However, the 22-year-old is probably going to be one of the first recalls and as a result, he will have a few opportunities to produce. That could help him earn a cheap one-way deal for 2022-23 but at this point, it’s unlikely he’ll hit his bonuses.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Brock Boeser ($5.875MM, RFA)
F Phillip Di Giuseppe ($750K, UFA)
D Jaroslav Halak ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Brad Hunt ($800K, UFA)
D Olli Juolevi ($750K, RFA)
F Zack MacEwen ($825K, RFA)
F Tyler Motte ($1.225MM, UFA)
F Brandon Sutter ($1.125MM, UFA)

Potential Bonuses
Halak: $1.5MM

Boeser’s deal is one of the ones that ultimately played a role in the rule change of the new CBA which creates the second calculation for a qualifying offer at 120% of the AAV instead of just the final-year salary. That rule doesn’t apply to him so he’ll be owed a $7.5MM qualifying offer next summer where he’ll be a year away from UFA eligibility if a long-term extension can’t be reached by then. He’s heading for a big raise either way. Motte has become a very effective energy forward and those players have still commanded good contracts on the open market so his next deal could approach double his current rate. Sutter’s market value was basically just established earlier this offseason and his value probably won’t jump significantly after next season. Di Giuseppe and MacEwen will fill depth roles and those spots will need to be at or near the minimum for the foreseeable future.

Hunt has held down a regular spot on an NHL roster the last few years even though it hasn’t yielded a lot of NHL action. He’s a power play specialist and he has been claimed on waivers before so it will be interesting to see if Vancouver keeps him as their seventh defender or tries to send him down. Juolevi had a limited role last season which made taking a one-year deal the smartest route for both sides. He’ll need to establish himself as a regular on the third pairing to have a shot at getting any sort of notable raise.

Halak comes over from Boston and will be a nice mentor that can push for playing time. At 36, he’ll be going year-to-year moving forward. Worth noting is that his bonuses are quite achievable, $1.25MM for 10 games played and $250K for a .905 SV%. Vancouver is probably going to be in LTIR all season long so those bonuses (plus any others the prospects hit) are going to come off their Upper Limit in 2022-23.

Two Years Remaining

F Justin Dowling ($750K, UFA)
F Micheal Ferland ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Travis Hamonic ($3MM, UFA)
F Bo Horvat ($5.5MM, UFA)
F J.T. Miller ($5.25MM, UFA)
D Luke Schenn ($850K, UFA)

Horvat has been a key player down the middle for his seven-year NHL career, logging tough defensive minutes while still chipping in offensively. His contract has proven to be a nice bargain for the Canucks but the 26-year-old will be in line for a max-term deal and a significant raise two years from now. The same can probably be said for Miller who has established himself as a top-line forward after coming over from Tampa Bay while playing well down the middle when called upon which will only help his value. It will cost a lot more to keep these two around long-term. Dowling provides some extra depth up front but is a candidate to be waived if someone else pushes him out of the lineup.

Ferland has missed most of the last two years with concussion trouble and there are questions about whether or not he’ll be able to return or even if he should try. He’s likely to go on LTIR and that will be important to keep in mind once we get to the Unsigned Players section.

Hamonic earned this deal after playing for considerably less last year but the fact he was willing to go outside Western Canada certainly bolstered his leverage. He won’t produce much but if he can log around 20 minutes a night, they’ll be fine with this contract. Schenn is another low-cost depth option and could be a candidate to be waived as well if someone like Rathbone forces Vancouver’s hand and plays well enough to earn a full-time roster spot.

Three Years Remaining

F Jason Dickinson ($2.65MM, UFA)
D Tyler Myers ($6MM, UFA)
F Tanner Pearson ($3.225MM, UFA)

Pearson re-signed with Vancouver just before the trade deadline with an extension that looked a little high based on the season he was having and where he fits in on their depth chart but unlike some of the similar-priced deals to their now-former role players, this one won’t hurt as much. Vancouver used Dallas’ expansion situation to their advantage to add and sign Dickinson as their new third-line center, bumping Sutter down a line in the process. Dickinson hasn’t put up much in the way of offensive numbers but he should get an opportunity to play a bit of a bigger role which would help justify the contract.

Myers’ contract has not been favorably looked upon from the moment it was signed. He had his limitations in Winnipeg and is better off in a more limited role than a top-pairing one but Vancouver still handed him a significant contract and a big role. Barring an uptick in offensive production, he was going to have a hard time living up to it and that hasn’t happened yet as his point-per-game averages have been close to what they were with the Jets. He’s a capable blueliner in the right spot on the depth chart but they are going to be hard-pressed to get any sort of value out of this deal.

Four Or More Years Remaining

G Thatcher Demko ($5MM through 2025-26)
D Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($7.26MM through 2026-27)*
F Conor Garland ($4.95MM through 2025-26)
D Tucker Poolman ($2.5MM through 2024-25)

*-Arizona is retaining $999K on Ekman-Larsson’s contract each year.

Garland was brought over as part of the Ekman-Larsson trade and while the blueliner was the headliner, Garland is still a significant addition. He was one of Arizona’s top scoring threats the last two seasons and will have the opportunity to play a top-six role in Vancouver. A boost in production with the change of scenery could make his deal a team-friendly one.

The same can’t be said for Ekman-Larsson. He’s coming off a tough season and the final few years of that contract could be a concern given all of the tough minutes he has logged over the years. He’ll certainly be a big addition for now but this contract could cost them the services of one of their other key veterans down the road. Poolman’s contract was one of the more puzzling ones in free agency. He’s a decent third pairing stay-at-home option but those players don’t typically command four years on the open market. Clearly, GM Jim Benning thinks he can bring more to the table than he did with Winnipeg.

Demko has very limited NHL experience – just 72 regular season games – but did well in what was a tough year for Vancouver in 2020-21. He may not be ready to be a 55-plus-game starter – that’s why Halak was brought in – but he’s definitely ready to take on the heavier side of the workload between the pipes. It may take another year or two but he’s capable of establishing himself as a strong number one and if that happens, this will be a big bargain for Vancouver.

Buyouts

G Braden Holtby ($500K in 2021-22, $1.9MM in 2022-23)
F Jake Virtanen ($50K in 2021-22, $500K in 2022-23)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Salary Cap Recapture

G Roberto Luongo ($3.035MM in 2021-22)

Still To Sign

D Quinn Hughes
F Elias Pettersson

Pettersson looked to be on his way to another season of being near a point per game before missing the final 30 games due to a wrist injury. That shouldn’t affect his next contract too much though. He has established himself as a top liner although he may be better off as a winger than a center moving forward which could cost him a little bit on this next deal since centers tend to get a bit more of a premium than wingers. A bridge deal would be in the high $5MM to low $6MM range while one that buys out UFA eligibility will cost a couple million more.

Hughes has a bit less leverage than Pettersson with the shorter track record and isn’t eligible for an offer sheet. However, he has two years of high-end production and he already looks like a premier point-producer among NHL defensemen. We’ve seen those players get paid considerably this offseason and his camp undoubtedly will be wanting to use those as comparables in negotiations. The potential price tags are likely similar to Pettersson’s thresholds.

Best Value: Horvat
Worst Value: Myers

Looking Ahead

By the time you factor in Ferland’s LTIR situation and Vancouver’s cap space, the Canucks are going to have somewhere between $13MM-$14MM in cap room, slightly more than that if they carry a roster below the maximum size. Even so, that’s probably not enough to sign both Hughes and Pettersson to long-term deals which is why the expectation has been that one would get a bridge and the other a long-term contract. We’ll find out over the next few weeks who gets which one.

The cap is going to be an issue for a while for Vancouver. While they have just $53MM committed for 2022-23 right now, that goes up quickly once the two RFAs sign while Boeser gets his guaranteed big raise plus the expected bonus overage penalty. That won’t leave much short-term wiggle room and a year later, they’ll be contending with bigger deals for Horvat and Miller. There isn’t a lot of long-term money on the books compared to some teams but it’s difficult to see how they’re going to keep this entire core intact over the next few years with a salary cap that isn’t going to rise very much or very quickly.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag: Hughes Brothers, Lundqvist, Domi, Caufield, Kings, Predictions

September 4, 2021 at 1:54 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 4 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include reuniting the Hughes brothers, Henrik Lundqvist, Max Domi, Cole Caufield’s production, the Kings’ offseason, plus playoff and crystal ball predictions. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Do you see the Hughes brothers all playing together on the same team someday? What would it take for that to happen via trade?

I don’t see it happening and it comes down to money. Quinn Hughes is going to get very expensive very quickly. If Jack Hughes pans out as expected, he’ll be expensive a year from now. By the time Quinn becomes a free agent, Luke will be on his second contract which, you guessed it, could get expensive quickly if he puts up the points many think he will. Dougie Hamilton might still be on the books at $9MM by then (depending on how long Quinn’s second contract is – is it a bridge or does it walk him to UFA right away?).

That likely takes the easiest scenario off the table. Could Vancouver one day trade Quinn? Sure, anything is possible. But does New Jersey need a third puck-moving defender with Hamilton and Luke and again, can they even afford that on the cap? Probably not and even if they could afford it, would they be willing to pay an extremely high price tag (multiple top picks and players) to make a strong spot (puck-moving defender) even stronger? That’s probably not the best use of organizational resources even if it makes for a nice story.

I don’t see New Jersey moving Jack and Luke to Vancouver, not with the cap challenges the Canucks are heading towards. And all three winding up on an entirely different team is even harder to see happening.

Could it happen later in their careers when they’re not all on big-money contracts? That’s certainly a little more realistic but even then, the safe bet is to say it doesn’t happen outside of them playing some summer scrimmages in the offseason on the same team.

Eaton Harass: Is Lundqvist the best goalie to never win a Cup?

He’s definitely in that mix. He’s a sure-fire Hall of Famer but there are others that are in the Hall of Fame that have to be considered.

Tony Esposito played in a much different era so it’s hard to directly compare the numbers but he played on some very good Chicago teams that just couldn’t get over the hump, much like the Rangers. Roberto Luongo didn’t always have good teams in front of him but was one of the premier goalies of his generation, the same as Lundqvist. I’d put Lundqvist ahead of Curtis Joseph and Ron Hextall who should also get at least some consideration here as well.

I’d say Esposito and his slightly more decorated track record would get the edge here but it’s not really a competition to be the best of that group. Lundqvist was a high-end goalie that never won a Stanley Cup that will one day be in the Hall of Fame. I know lots of people like ‘Best of’ lists but I don’t think being ranked first, second, third, or tenth matters all that much.

@MarkPaleo: Is Max Domi a possible solution for the Bruins’ 2nd line center question?

In the short term, no. He’s going to miss at least the first six weeks or so of the season if not longer after undergoing shoulder surgery in early June. There’s also the $5.3MM AAV which is one they can’t really afford. Yes, he’s eligible for LTIR but there would be a cap crunch as soon as he was able to return.

But at the trade deadline? That could be a really interesting option. At that point, Domi will have come back and shown if he’s capable of still being a top-six piece (particularly at center, after spending time the last two years on the wing) and the money will be easier to fit in with how much time will have passed and Columbus likely being more willing to retain at that time. Boston has looked at reclamation rental projects in the past at the deadline in the hopes that a change of scenery gets them going and Domi would certainly fit that particular strategy. If they haven’t filled that spot by the deadline, he’d make some sense for them.

wu tang killa beez: What do you expect from Cole Caufield in Montreal in a full NHL season? Can he score 30 goals?

In a single season at some point in his career? 30 is more than doable; it’d be a bit surprising if he didn’t get to that milestone a few times at least. He’s undersized but it’s hard to teach the scoring touch that Caufield has and he certainly didn’t look out of place during Montreal’s playoff run.

Now, if you’re asking about next season, that’s a little less certain. Don’t get me wrong, he could get 30 in 2021-22 but I don’t know if I’d necessarily predict that. The Canadiens are a score-by-committee type of team and outside of a hot start last year, they don’t typically score a lot. They have some decent weapons on the wing with him, Brendan Gallagher, Mike Hoffman, and Tyler Toffoli and that might result in some flatter scoring numbers. All of those players could (and if healthy, probably should) pass the 20-goal mark but because of that depth, none might reach 30 next season.

Winter in Colorado: Do you think the veteran additions and developing prospects will be enough for the LA Kings to make the playoffs this season? Is 3rd in the relatively weak Pacific Division possible?

bigalval: Can the Kings make the playoffs this year the team looks a lot better and the kids are coming up.

There’s no denying that the Kings are much-improved after the additions of Phillip Danault, Viktor Arvidsson, and Alexander Edler. The depth is a lot better and some players who were in spots higher than they should have been will be pushed back down which, from a development standpoint, isn’t a bad thing either. There’s also no denying that the Pacific Division isn’t all that strong and it is definitely possible that these additions plus some internal improvement from their youngsters could be enough to get them over the hump and into that third seed. I wouldn’t be shocked if it happened.

That said, I’m not going to predict it’ll happen. Last month, I made my very quick predictions for the playoffs and the Kings weren’t in that group. I think Edler will help their back end but it’s still not a particularly strong group. I don’t have a lot of confidence that Calvin Petersen and Jonathan Quick can be a playoff-caliber goaltending tandem, especially with that back end not being an impactful one. They’ll score more but after being 27th in that department last season, that’s a low bar to clear. I could see the Kings being fourth or fifth in the division but if five teams from the Central make it (a definite possibility), that would have Los Angeles just on the outside looking in. Bright days are soon coming but I think that jump ahead is another year away.

Joe422: 3 in and 3 out…. What 3-teams made the playoffs last season will not make it this season and who replaces them?

Let’s revisit those predictions linked above. I actually have four teams from the 2020-21 playoffs missing as things stand this season – two from the East and two from the West being replaced by one from the East and three from the West thanks to the one-time divisional alignment from a year ago.

Out of the teams missing, let’s start with the Stanley Cup finalists in Montreal. They’ll score more this season but they’re going to struggle defensively without Danault and Shea Weber. Their depth down the middle is already shaky – we’ll see later today if it gets even weaker – and it’s hard to see them making it back in. Pittsburgh is a team that has a narrow gap between contending and declining. I don’t think they’ve tangibly improved and their goaltending is still a giant question mark. Unless Tristan Jarry picks up his play, I think they just miss. From the West, Nashville has certainly started to rebuild while Minnesota’s roster isn’t as strong as it was a year ago. I also don’t see them staying in the top ten in goals scored and the end result is them taking a small step back.

As for who gets in, I expect Philadelphia to rebound. More specifically, I expect Carter Hart to rebound and if that happens, they basically become a playoff team right then and there. A largely healthy Dallas team (Ben Bishop is still out) should rebound, getting them into the mix in the Central. Chicago has added enough that they should be able to at least grab a Wild Card spot, especially if both go to Central Division teams. I’m going to put Vancouver in as well. As much as I really don’t like the acquisition of Oliver Ekman-Larsson with the likely long-term cap consequences, their defense will be better this season and the addition of Conor Garland gives them another scoring threat. Add that to a quietly good goalie tandem and there’s a recipe for a playoff appearance this season.

I still don’t think the big moves are done just yet and I don’t just mean the offer sheet answer so things could certainly change before the puck drops on the regular season next month.

The Duke: Old & New Crystal Ball, total points moving forward: Wennberg vs Bennett; Saad vs Zucker; Podkolzin vs Lucas Raymond; Owen Power vs Luke Hughes – and GAA: Vladar vs Skinner; Wallstedt vs Cossa.

1) I’m not going to predict Sam Bennett will stay over a point per game with Florida but I could see some 50-plus-point years from him. I don’t see that from Alexander Wennberg who is more of a 30-point player. Bennett’s a year younger but plays a more physical style that will wear down over time which creates some injury concerns so let’s say 350 for him and 250 for Wennberg.

2) Brandon Saad is a year younger than Jason Zucker and has five years left on his contract versus two for Zucker. I think Zucker is the more talented player when both are on their games but if he doesn’t rebound soon with Pittsburgh, he won’t get the top-six opportunities that Saad will. Let’s go with 250 for Saad, 200 for Zucker.

3) I think Vasili Podkolzin’s offensive upside is a bit overstated although he’s going to be a key piece soon for Vancouver. As for Raymond, I feel he has the potential for more points so let’s say 620-525? Guessing production 15 years down the road is a little challenging for the crystal ball.

4) If Luke is like his brother Quinn offensively as some think he can be, I think he beats Power on the points front. Of course, that’s a big if. Of course, it’s Power’s all-around game and the potential to be an every-situation number one blueliner that made him the number one pick. I’ll say 625-585 for Hughes; Power plays a little longer to bring the totals closer.

5) I’m honestly not sold that Stuart Skinner is going to have any sort of viable NHL career so his GAA could wind up somewhere in the low threes in limited action. Daniel Vladar is going to have a chance to play behind a decent back end in Calgary on a Darryl Sutter-coached team that will be defense-first. That will help his career average in the long run which could be in the mid-to-high twos.

6) This is a fun one. Like many, I was surprised when Sebastian Cossa went ahead of Jesper Wallstedt on draft day but both should be starters for a long time in this league. That means their GAAs are likely to be at least somewhat similar in the mid-twos. I had Wallstedt ahead of Cossa so give him the nod by a few hundredths if you’re looking for me to break the virtual tie.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vegas Golden Knights

September 4, 2021 at 10:53 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 2 Comments

Vegas Golden Knights

Current Cap Hit: $81,537,439 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Peyton Krebs ($863K through 2023-24)

Potential Bonuses: $412.5K

Krebs, a 2019 first-rounder, got a brief NHL look late last season and held his own. He may have to wait to get a look this coming season – there will be roster limitations again when everyone is healthy – but if their summer acquisitions to bolster their center depth don’t pan out as hoped, Krebs should get a legitimate opportunity soon after.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Sven Baertschi ($750K, UFA)
D Jake Bischoff ($717K, UFA)
D Nicolas Hague ($792K, RFA)
F Brett Howden ($885K, RFA)
F Mattias Janmark ($2MM, UFA)
F Keegan Kolesar ($725K, RFA)
D Brayden McNabb ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Nicolas Roy ($750K, RFA)
F Reilly Smith ($5MM, UFA)
D Zach Whitecloud ($725K, RFA)

Smith has been a fixture in Vegas’ top six for the past four seasons but saw his production drop off considerably last season. His first three years provided good value for the Golden Knights but a similar showing in 2021-22 could result in his market value taking a dip. As it stands, they may have a hard time being able to retain Smith beyond this contract. Janmark was a surprise re-signing in that he was expected to get more elsewhere but instead, he opted to take a below-market deal to stay with Vegas. If Smith does leave, Janmark could be one of the beneficiaries with some of that money going to him for 2022-23 and beyond. Roy stepped into a bigger role last season and could double his current AAV next summer with a similar showing due to his arbitration rights while Howden, another center in that mix, will need to play closer to his first two seasons if he wants any kind of sizable raise. Kolesar and Baertschi are both low-cost roster pieces and Vegas will need to have a few of those beyond this season whether it’s them or someone else.

McNabb is the only defenseman remaining in Vegas that was directly selected in expansion (not a related side deal). He doesn’t put up the offensive numbers to command top dollar but solid stay-at-home blueliners have checked in over $3.5MM in recent years. That’s certainly achievable if he makes it to the open market. Hague had a nice first full NHL season on the third pairing but with their depth and cap situation, he’s probably in a similar role this coming season and looking at a cheap one-year deal next summer to preserve short-term flexibility. Whitecloud isn’t as established but unlike Hague, will at least have arbitration rights in the offseason to help him in negotiations where he could push to double his AAV. Bischoff is tied for the lowest AAV in the entire league which will have him in the mix at times as well.

Two Years Remaining

G Laurent Brossoit ($2.325MM, UFA)
F Evgenii Dadonov ($5MM, UFA)
F Max Pacioretty ($7MM, UFA)

Pacioretty eclipsed the point per game mark for the first time in his career last season while leading the Golden Knights in goals for the second straight season. As long as that’s happening, they’ll be happy with his contract. Dadonov was one of the more puzzling trades of the summer. Yes, he has helped on the power play in the past which is an area of concern but them using a big chunk of their cap space from the Marc-Andre Fleury trade on a winger who struggled last season is certainly a bit of a risk.

Brossoit has had two strong seasons out of the last three but in the middle was a particularly tough showing. In all three, playing time was limited; his career-high in games played in a single season is only 21. That led to him landing a cheaper deal than more proven backups which was necessary for cap reasons but this is going to put a lot more pressure on their starter in the process. If Brossoit picks up where he left off in Winnipeg and can play a few more games though, he’s still young enough (28) to land a bigger deal two years from now.

Three Years Remaining

F William Carrier ($1.4MM, UFA)
F Jonathan Marchessault ($5MM, UFA)
D Alec Martinez ($5.35MM, UFA)
F Chandler Stephenson ($2.75MM, UFA)

Marchessault has more than proven that his breakout year in Florida was no fluke as he has been a key piece of their attack for all four seasons. That price tag for someone playing at greater than a 50-point pace is a pretty good return. It’s not quite as good of one as having a top-six center making third line money which is what they have in Stephenson. Leaving Washington has allowed him to become a reliable two-way second liner and a core player for them in the process whose absence in the Stanley Cup Semifinal was felt. Carrier doesn’t produce a lot but is an effective role player with plenty of sandpaper and those are the fourth liners that often get paid in free agency. They could fill that spot with someone cheaper if they had to but Carrier brings an element few others up front do for Vegas.

Had he made it to the open market, Martinez would have been arguably the most sought after blueliner (knowing that Dougie Hamilton’s price inherently limited his legitimate suitors) but he opted to pass on the opportunity to command a bigger deal in both price and term to stick around with Vegas. He’s not a number one defender but slides nicely into a second or third role depending on his pairing and in either slot, he’s likely to provide strong value. Considering his next contract will come in his age-37 season, a dip in pay will be coming at that time.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F William Karlsson ($5.9MM through 2026-27)
G Robin Lehner ($5MM through 2024-25)
D Alex Pietrangelo ($8.8MM through 2026-27)
F Mark Stone ($9.5MM through 2026-27)
D Shea Theodore ($5.2MM through 2024-25)
F Alex Tuch ($4.75MM through 2025-26)

Stone has shown more of an offensive touch the last few seasons which, coupled with his elite defensive game, makes him one of the premier two-way forwards in the league. It’s hard to call a $9.5MM contract a bargain but for what he’s able to do, it’s certainly not an overpayment either. Karlsson hasn’t come close to matching his production from his first year with the Golden Knights but has been a quality top-six center since then and as contracts for that position continue to escalate quickly, having him locked in is a good thing. Tuch’s inconsistency has limited him to more of a secondary role throughout his career but the skill and size are there to make him a consistent impact player and if that happens, his deal will quickly become a bargain.

Pietrangelo came as advertised as a legitimate number one blueliner and now finds himself on a cheaper contract than others in that role have signed in recent months. It’s hard to find value in many high-priced deals but if the escalating salaries continue, that could very well happen. There is definitely value in Theodore’s contract as he has continually improved to the point where it could be argued that he is a number one in his own right (though Pietrangelo logs the most minutes). Having him signed for four more years making the type of money that some number three defenders get is a significant bargain.

Lehner was limited due to injury last season plus Fleury’s strong season but now he comes in as the undisputed starter and will be counted on to play a considerably heavier workload than he’s accustomed to. He has shown flashes of being a higher-end starter and if he can provide that for the Golden Knights, he’ll be another high-value contract on their books.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

D Dylan Coghlan
F Nolan Patrick

Patrick was acquired in a swap of young underachieving centers with Cody Glass going the other way. He was able to return last season after missing all of 2019-20 due to the pandemic but struggled. That’s going to limit his earnings upside here and he’s likely only looking at a one-year deal once again. As for Coghlan, he held his own in a reserve role last season while getting into 29 games. That’s not enough for him to command much of a raise and the delay to this point may be more of trying to sort out the two-way portion of his next deal than haggling over NHL money.

Best Value: Theodore
Worst Value: Dadonov

Looking Ahead

Tuch’s LTIR placement to start the season will actually allow Vegas to afford to carry a full roster, meaning that they won’t need to be playing games below the maximum player lineup as they did on multiple occasions last season. But when Tuch comes back (and assuming no one else is on LTIR by then), the cap crunch will return where they will be basically limited to carrying a minimum-sized roster and be susceptible to day-to-day injuries that force them below 18 skaters on game day. GM Kelly McCrimmon is clearly comfortable with this situation as he opted to go this tight to the Upper Limit after seeing what happened last season and while that carries some risk, he has a pretty strong roster once again.

Beyond next season, it’s going to be more of the same for 2022-23. Yes, they have about $14MM coming off the books next summer but have half of a defense corps to re-sign plus a forward or two so that money will be spent quickly. Depending on what happens with Pacioretty and Dadonov, that could be an opportunity for Vegas to reshape their roster a little bit but even if they did that, they’d still be tight to the cap. Get used to that being the case for the Golden Knights as it’s not about to change anytime soon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Four Or More Years Remaining

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Still To Sign

Looking Ahead

Vancouver Canucks

Entry-Level Contracts

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

Two Years Remaining

Three Years Remaining

Four Or More Years Remaining

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Salary Cap Recapture

Still To Sign

Looking Ahead

Vegas Golden Knights

Entry-Level Contracts

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

Two Years Remaining