Poll: Which Team Currently Outside The Playoffs Will Make It?
The All-Star weekend is always the unofficial halfway point of the season, but this year brings an odd spread of games played thanks to COVID postponements and the previously scheduled Olympic break. While the Anaheim Ducks have played in 48 of their 82 games already, the New York Islanders have just 39 completed.
Despite still more than half the season remaining for some teams, many believe the Eastern Conference playoff picture is essentially already finalized. The Boston Bruins, currently sitting in the second wildcard spot, have a nine-point lead on the Detroit Red Wings despite having played four fewer games. The Islanders perhaps have a better shot if they were to catch fire in the second half, because of the number of games they’ve played to this point.
In the West, it’s not nearly as clear-cut. The Calgary Flames currently sit in the final wildcard spot, but are just three points behind the Anaheim Ducks for a divisional position with six fewer games played. In fact, the Pacific division in general will be an interesting race given how few games the Flames and Edmonton Oilers have played so far. Both of those teams could potentially contend for the division lead–currently held by the Vegas Golden Knights–with a relatively short winning streak. In the Central, it’s a little tighter, but the St. Louis Blues, currently in a wildcard position are still in danger of being caught by those pesky Pacifics.
Even teams like the Dallas Stars, San Jose Sharks, Vancouver Canucks, and Winnipeg Jets aren’t really out of it at this point, despite rollercoaster seasons each. Winnipeg, once considered a Stanley Cup contender, has been brutal of late and now sits nine points behind the Flames for the last spot, but has also played just 42 games. There is still plenty of season left for them to make a push, though they’ll need better play from the leadership group in order to do it.
So which team that’s currently outside the playoff picture will end up making it? We’ve included the most likely answers below, but if you feel confident in someone else make sure to explain why in the comment section.
Which team outside the playoffs at the All-Star break will make it?
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Edmonton Oilers 49% (475)
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Dallas Stars 12% (116)
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New York Islanders 10% (93)
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Vancouver Canucks 9% (84)
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Winnipeg Jets 8% (74)
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Other 5% (48)
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Detroit Red Wings 4% (40)
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San Jose Sharks 2% (20)
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Columbus Blue Jackets 1% (10)
Total votes: 960
[Mobile users click here to vote]
PHR Mailbag, Kings, Devils Goaltending, Bruins, Red Wings, Maple Leafs Lines, Blue Jackets, Kraken
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the back end for the Kings, New Jersey’s goaltending situation, Boston’s trade deadline approach, the idea of the Red Wings being buyers, Toronto’s new lines, trade odds for Columbus, and Seattle’s recent victories. If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.
Weasel 2: Realistic opportunity for the Kings to add an impact defenseman? What would a Kings package for Chychrun look like?
Honestly, I don’t think it’s the right time for the Kings to push in some of their chips to try to make a big splash, especially on the back end where the options are rentals or paying through the teeth for Jakob Chychrun. If Alexander Edler returns during the regular season, they need to have the cap space to be able to activate him which effectively cuts what they can currently spend in half. I’d shop more on the depth side of things where the cost is a lot lower (I’ve mentioned Detroit’s Troy Stecher in the past as someone I think would be a worthwhile and affordable addition) as I don’t think they’re a big add away from really contending.
Among the impact rental defensemen out there, I’d look at Montreal’s Ben Chiarot as a realistic option. I don’t see Anaheim dealing their two key rental blueliners in the division if they sell and I don’t think Chiarot will get the first-round pick that some have suggested is the current asking price; there are only so many first-rounders that are going to move and there will be better players moved than Chiarot. A second-round pick and a good prospect (of which the Kings have several) could be enough without taking away any top assets. Newly-hired advisor Marc Bergevin is quite familiar with what Montreal has and that type of familiarity can help on the trade front.
There are varying reports as to how many pieces are needed for Chychrun. It ranges between three first-round elements and an Eichel-like return. The Kings don’t quite have the similar pieces from the Eichel return so I think something along the lines of Quinton Byfield, Alex Turcotte, and a first-round pick is probably in the range of what Arizona is looking for with perhaps a secondary piece (prospect or second-rounder tacked on to get closer to the four-piece Eichel return). It’s a huge ask but Arizona doesn’t have to move Chychrun unless they’re blown away and I don’t think the Kings should be the team to make that type of move.
Speak Of The Devil: What can the Devils realistically do to make their goaltending situation better? Blackwood is clearly not the answer here and Bernier is done for the year and there are rumors he may be done for his career. So, who can we go after to end this hamster wheel of mediocrity?
Jack Campbell is setting himself up for a nice payday as the best starter available in free agency and New Jersey has plenty of cap space at their disposal still. He’s about the only long-term option available (I know Darcy Kuemper is another option but with his injury history, there’s some risk) so if they’re convinced his stint with Toronto isn’t a mirage but rather a true sign of where he is, back up the money truck and make sure not to get outbid for his services. With his overall inexperience though, it’s a bit of a risk.
The first name that came to mind when I saw this question was Sergei Bobrovsky. Florida is going to want to move him at some point even with the season he’s having; Spencer Knight is their goalie of the future and they’re going to want to reallocate Bobrovsky’s $10MM price tag with Aleksander Barkov’s new deal starting next season and Jonathan Huberdeau up next summer. There’s a chance for the Devils to take advantage of that if they think Bobrovsky’s back on track and could get him for a below-market trade return. But it’s a gamble again.
But here’s the thing. Every goalie I can throw out there is a question mark. Alexandar Georgiev is probably going to move and the rivalry notwithstanding, is he really a starter? He could be but it’s a risk. If St. Louis wants to go all in on Ville Husso and move Jordan Binnington, is he much of an upgrade on Blackwood? Semyon Varlamov would be a short-term solution so the hamster wheel wouldn’t stop spinning for long. Philipp Grubauer has had a brutal season in Seattle but was good in Colorado so maybe he’s a fit but five years is a lot for a gamble. You could sell me on adding Linus Ullmark to that list to let Boston run with Jeremy Swayman but there are question marks with him as well.
In pretty much every scenario, it’s going to be a roll of the dice. That’s the challenge with the way the league is going with goaltending – there just aren’t 32 legitimate starting goalies out there let alone teams having a surplus at that spot that doesn’t come with a poison pill of sorts. There are upgrades available but few guarantees and with Bernier’s future in question, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Devils try to add a goalie next offseason. These will be some of the names they likely look to.
case7187: Do you think the B’s could package those three horrible first-round picks DeBrusk, Senyshyn, and Zboril for a guy like J.T. Miller or someone similar to him or would they have to add picks or Vaakanainen to any deals?
SkidRowe: Realistically, what can the Bruins do? They have a lot of talent but they also have glaring needs at C, LD, and RW. Besides draft picks, they don’t have many cheap, young assets to trade (unless they’re willing to move Swayman). Studnicka and Vaakanainen are okay prospects but not exciting. DeBrusk is overpaid and underperforming. Frederic is a former 1st rounder but he’s bottom 6 only. It will be tough for the Bruins to make a competitive offer for any of the big names that may be out there (Chychrun, Hertl, J.T. Miller) given their lack of assets. If they were lucky enough to acquire one of the bigger fish, they would have nothing left to fill their other needs.
@BobbyRotondo: What are the Bruins going to do?
Let’s put all of the Boston questions together.
On the first one, I’ll pose a question back – if the picks are as horrible as they’ve been, why is Vancouver dealing an impact player on a team-friendly contract for them? Draft pedigree is meaningless at this stage of their careers. Jake DeBrusk’s trade value is next to zero with his salary and limited production. He’s not getting a qualifying offer and he’s not producing enough to get teams interested. They can make a move involving him for a similarly-paid underachiever but that’s about it. Zach Senyshyn cleared waivers at the start of the season and has been good but not great in the minors. I wouldn’t be surprised if he moves but it’d be for a depth piece in lieu of trading a late-round pick back; that’s where his value is. I think Jakub Zboril could become a third-pairing player but he’s out for the year with a torn ACL so his value right now is minimal at best.
So, what can the Bruins do? They have some cap space to work with which puts them in pretty good shape to try to make a splash. But they also don’t have the long-term cap room to work with to add another high-priced player to this core assuming they’re able to re-sign Patrice Bergeron this summer and David Pastrnak the following offseason. Making the playoffs shouldn’t be an issue but they look like a Wild Card team more than a contender. Is moving one of those few quality young trade assets as was correctly noted for an impact rental player the right move at this time? I don’t think so. You do that when you’re trying to contend, not become less of an underdog in the first round; there is no one rental player that puts them over the top in terms of contention.
Remember the Drew Stafford trade from a few years ago? Boston was able to get him for cheap in large part because of his contract. That’s the type of move I think they’ll look at. Add a quality veteran or two that will improve the depth and provide a bit of upside relative to the players they’ll be replacing but with their cap hits being higher than they should be, they won’t have to move much to get them. Those are incremental improvements to the roster without mortgaging the future. For a team in their situation, they shouldn’t be doing much more than that. That’s not exciting but it’s prudent and with their prospect pool not being the deepest right now, I think it’s the right course of action.
HockeyBoz: Is there a chance that the Red Wings are interested in Klingberg? Staal, Leddy, DeKeyser all could be gone next year. Hronek slipping on the depth chart. Might be a good pick-up. They have draft picks stockpiled. Thoughts??
John Klingberg is going to yield a nice return in a trade for Dallas even as a pending free agent. I want to particularly emphasize that last bit. Klingberg will be an unrestricted free agent this summer. Detroit enters play today nine points out of a playoff spot with Boston (the team holding the final spot) having three games in hand. It would make no sense for the Red Wings to trade for Klingberg as a rental; they’d still almost certainly miss the playoffs and be out some draft picks or prospects for good measure.
Now, if Klingberg was to sign a contract extension as part of a trade, that’s another story. Is it worth parting with a good pick or prospect to secure Klingberg for seven or eight more seasons? Sure. And in that situation, it would make sense for GM Steve Yzerman to consider. If Klingberg makes it to free agency in July, then they should absolutely be involved; at some point, Detroit will need to start building back their veteran talent base which would go a long way towards helping them take a big step or two forward.
If Klingberg is willing to sign with Detroit right now, then they should be interested in him over the coming weeks. Otherwise, they have no business being involved in a trade for him and would be best served to wait until the summer to go after him.
Detroit_SP: Does the Red Wings’ best QUALITY option at 2C for 2022-23+ already play on the team? If not, how does the team add a non-rental piece that can contribute quickly enough not to waste Bertuzzi, Larkin, Fabbri, and Vrana’s time with the organization?
I don’t think so. I like Joseph Veleno but he’s more of a checker than a top-six guy. Michael Rasmussen shows flashes of offensive skill but I feel he’s also more of a third liner in an ideal situation. Pius Suter isn’t going to be a second liner long-term either.
So how do they get one? They can offer a huge contract to Nazem Kadri in free agency or pay a hefty price to get one in a trade. It cost Montreal a first-rounder plus a second-rounder to get Christian Dvorak, a lower-end 2C. If you want a quality piece, it’s going to cost a high-end prospect at a minimum; teams moving one with some team control would be asking about guys like Simon Edvinsson. Controllable impact centers are worth that much.
You make a good point about not wasting the remaining years for their current veteran core and I tend to lean the same way. Cup contention comes from a combination of good veterans, young impact players that aren’t on high-priced contracts, and impact pieces on entry-level pacts. That’s the ideal way to maximize talent in the salary cap era. That particular structure only has a few years left as at that point, their current veterans will either cost more or will have moved on. This isn’t the season to do it – they’re probably not making the playoffs – but that switch should be flipped this summer.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Boston Bruins
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2021-22 season and beyond with contract statuses as of the beginning of the year. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Boston Bruins
Current Cap Hit: $80,505,704 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Oskar Steen (one year, $809K)
G Jeremy Swayman (two years, $925K)
Potential Bonuses
Steen: $82.5K
Swayman: $125K
Total: $0.2075MM
Steen has spent a good chunk of the season in the minors but has earned a regular spot in the lineup in recent weeks. It’s his first extended stint of NHL action and a half-season of playing time won’t be enough to yield a long-term deal. A short-term pact that’s around this AAV but is a one-way deal instead of two-way would make a lot of sense for both sides.
Swayman is currently in the minors but played well in the first half of the season for the Bruins before being a roster casualty. Depending on how his bonuses are structured, that may be a number that has to be kept in mind for deadline spending with an eye on trying to stay that far under the cap. If he’s a regular next season in a similar platoon role that he had to start this one, he could push for a bridge contract that’s around double his current price tag.
Signed Through 2021-22, Non-Entry-Level
F Patrice Bergeron ($6.875MM, UFA)
F Anton Blidh ($750K, UFA)
F Jake DeBrusk ($3.675MM, RFA)
F Curtis Lazar ($800K, UFA)
G Tuukka Rask ($1MM, UFA)
D Jakub Zboril ($725K, RFA)
Bergeron’s contract is the big one for the Bruins and GM Don Sweeney to contend with in the coming months. He’s not really slowing down offensively as he continues to produce at a top-line rate. He’s still one of the top defensive centers in the league. He’s still well-respected as their captain. Generally, this combination can result in a contract that could push upwards of $10MM. No one really expects that to be the case here. Boston has had an ability to get several of their core veterans to take a little below market value to stick around and there’s little reason to think they won’t try that here. Accordingly, it makes Bergeron’s next deal a little tricky to peg – he could easily get considerably more on the open market and it wouldn’t be entirely shocking if he took a little less, especially if he can get an extra year or two tacked on.
DeBrusk is someone who has seen his value drop substantially over the last year and a half. His qualifying offer is $4.41MM and no one is going to pay that which means he’ll be non-tendered and looking for something around the $2MM mark on a one-year deal in the hopes of rebuilding his value. Lazar won’t ever live up to his draft billing but he has established himself as a reliable fourth liner that can play center and the wing. His market shouldn’t be huge but a contract closer to the $1MM mark is doable. Blidh should be able to get a one-way contract over the summer but with him being more of a role player than someone who’s going to play every night, his cap hit should still remain near the minimum.
Zboril’s injury trouble isn’t helping his case and at this point, he’s likely looking at another deal at or close to the minimum. He could still become a regular on the third pairing but until that happens, the seven-figure contracts are going to be hard to come by.
Rask was true to his word, signing for just above the minimum to work within Boston’s cap structure. Is he willing to do that again? It can’t be ruled out and considering he wasn’t interested in going elsewhere this season, it’s fair to surmise it once again will be Boston or nothing.
Signed Through 2022-23
D Connor Clifton ($1MM, UFA)
F Nick Foligno ($3.8MM, UFA)
F Trent Frederic ($1.05MM, RFA)
F Erik Haula ($2.375MM, UFA)
D John Moore ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Tomas Nosek ($1.75MM, UFA)
F David Pastrnak ($6.67MM, UFA)
F Craig Smith ($3.1MM, UFA)
F Chris Wagner ($1.35MM, UFA)
Sweeney’s ability to get veterans to take below-market contracts is really going to get tested with Pastrnak. At the time he signed his current deal, he wasn’t yet the high-scoring star he has become now. Top-end wingers can still command significant money on the open market and it’s not crazy to think Pastrnak could land another couple million or more per season on a max-term contract; he’ll hit the open market at 27 in the prime of his career.
Fortunately for the Bruins, they have enough veterans on expiring contracts to help offset any increase to Pastrnak. Foligno has had a tough season that certainly hasn’t helped his value and if that continues, he’ll be closer to half of what he’s making now. Smith hasn’t been able to be the consistent secondary scorer they hoped he’d be based on his time with Nashville so it’s hard to forecast a bump in salary for him. At the rate he’s going, he could still get close to his current price tag though. Haula’s contract seemed a little lower than expected and he has played at a similar rate compared to his last couple of seasons. Centers are always in demand and as long as he can do well on the third line, he should generate enough interest for a small increase. Nosek is who he is at this point, a lower-scoring third liner that does enough defensively and at the faceoff dot to make him a quality depth player. Another contract in this range is achievable for him. Wagner has spent the entire season in the minors but still carries a lingering $225K charge which will also be the case next year if he is waived and clears again. Frederic has been able to hold down a spot on the fourth line but unless he can play his way into a bigger role by the end of next season, he won’t be able to get much more than his $1.15MM qualifying offer.
Moore’s contract hasn’t worked out, plain and simple, as he has struggled to stay healthy and has had his struggles in Boston’s lineup when he has had the chance to play. At this point, he’s a possible buyout candidate. Clifton is a capable depth defender that can hold his own on the third pairing when called upon. Those types of players are rarely in high demand but as long as he’s willing to sign for a similar price, he should have a few suitors from teams looking to shore up their depth.
Signed Through 2023-24
D Derek Forbort ($3MM, UFA)
D Matt Grzelcyk ($3.688MM, UFA)
D Mike Reilly ($3MM, UFA)
Grzelcyk hasn’t been able to the big step forward that the Bruins were hoping for when they signed him to this contract but he remains a capable part of their second pairing. He chips in enough at the offensive end to still provide a good return on this contract and he should be in line for a small raise for his first test of the open market. Forbort isn’t too far removed from being a 20-minute player, a mark he has hit four times which helped him earn this contract. With Boston, he has been a bit more of a role player so far but as a fourth or fifth defender most nights, he has provided reasonable value so far. He’ll be 32 when he gets back to free agency and if he’s on the third pairing more consistently, his next contract should come in a little lower than this one. The same could be said for Reilly who hasn’t been quite as impactful as he was when he joined Boston in a late-season trade a year ago. His production has gone closer to normal levels although his positive possession stats help offset that a little bit. He’ll need to be more like the player he was in 2020-21 to have a chance at getting a similar contract in 2024.
Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag
We’re coming up on the NHL All-Star break and a few days past the halfway point of the schedule. Jakob Chychrun and John Klingberg are squarely in the rumor mill, as the Coyotes and Stars try to squeeze the most value out of their departing defensemen. Evander Kane‘s situation is still up in the air, and players from around the world are departing for the Olympics.
With all that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two parts. In the first, our Brian La Rose examined the Philadelphia Flyers situation right as they fired Alain Vigneault, wrote about the Kane situation before his minor league incident, and took a look at the disappointing Winnipeg Jets campaign. In the second, he projected out future point totals for players like Matty Beniers and Cole Perfetti, looked at J.T. Miller as a trade candidate, and discussed the struggles for many of the Canadian teams this year.
You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend and answer as many questions as possible.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Buffalo Sabres
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2021-22 season and beyond. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Buffalo Sabres
Current Cap Hit: $69,244,521 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Dylan Cozens (two years, $894K)
F Peyton Krebs (three years, $863K)
Potential Bonuses
Cozens: $850K
Krebs: $412.5K
Total: $1.2625MM
While Cozens hasn’t been lighting it up in his sophomore season, he has taken some positive strides and has played his way into a bigger role. That said, it’s not the type of performance that is going to set him up for a long-term second contract and he’ll have some work to do in the second half if he wants a shot at hitting any of his ‘A’ bonuses. A bridge deal in the $3MM range looks like a possibility if his slow but steady development continues. Krebs was a key part of the Jack Eichel trade and his first handful of NHL games haven’t been great. That said, he still figures to be a key part of their long-term plans and with such a limited sample size to judge off of, it’s way too early to be able to reasonably forecast his next contract.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
G Craig Anderson ($750K, UFA)
D Johnny Boychuk ($6MM, UFA)
D Jacob Bryson ($889K, RFA)
D Will Butcher ($2.823MM, UFA)*
F Drake Caggiula ($750K, UFA)
F Cody Eakin ($2.25MM, UFA)
D Robert Hagg ($1.6MM, UFA)
F John Hayden ($750K, UFA)
F Vinnie Hinostroza ($1.05MM, UFA)
D Colin Miller ($3.875MM, UFA)
F Victor Olofsson ($3.05MM, RFA)
D/F Mark Pysyk ($900K, UFA)
G Malcolm Subban ($850K, UFA)
G Dustin Tokarski ($725K, UFA)
*-New Jersey is retaining another $910K of Butcher’s contract.
Following Olofsson’s somewhat surprising rookie season two years ago, they opted for a bridge contract to see if it was a sign of things to come or just him getting hit at the right time. Today, there’s still some question about what he’ll be worth. He’s doing well enough to be qualified at $3.25MM which would be a small jump on his $3.05MM AAV but at the same time, GM Kevyn Adams may not be ready to commit to a long-term deal yet. As a result, a second bridge contract makes sense but with him being two years away from UFA eligibility, it’ll have to just be a one-year deal. He’s eligible for arbitration and if they were to look at a long-term pact that bought out some UFA years, something in the $5MM range may be required.
Eakin’s contract from a year ago came as a bit of a surprise after a quiet 2019-20 season and his value certainly hasn’t improved since then. He can still kill penalties and win faceoffs but the role he has is usually valued at closer to $1MM than $2MM. Hinostroza is getting a bigger opportunity with Buffalo than he had over the last few years and it was a wise decision as he’s hovering near the half-a-point-per-game mark, his best average since 2018-19. Has he done enough to show he’s worthy of a middle-six role on a better team, however? If yes, he could come close to doubling his price tag. If not, his raise for next season may be minimal. Hayden and Caggiula are low-cost role players and are likely to stay at or close to the league minimum on their next deals.
Boychuk was traded to Buffalo just before the Eichel trade to allow the Sabres to stay above the cap floor but his playing days are done. The addition of Butcher was an interesting one as it gave him a chance to rebuild his value. That hasn’t happened as he has largely been limited to a role on the third pairing when he has played. Still, his rookie season should give him a reasonable market as some will view him as a bounce-back candidate so he could come in around half of his $3.733MM AAV on his next contract.
Hagg is one of Buffalo’s more intriguing rental trade candidates over the next couple of months as a physical, stay-at-home defender that can upgrade a third pairing. There’s still a good market for those players so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him surpass the $2MM mark in the summer. Bryson isn’t putting up many points but the fact he’s averaging nearly 20 minutes a game will help since he’s arbitration-eligible this summer. A one-year deal should earn him somewhere around $1.5MM but a multi-year deal could be an option here around the $2MM AAV range. Pysyk has had to settle for one-year contracts the last two seasons and that will likely happen again although he, too, isn’t far off from 20 minutes a night which could push his value past the $1MM mark which would be an improvement on his last two deals.
None of Buffalo’s goaltenders are in a position to command much of a raise. Subban cleared waivers in training camp and has struggled in limited action this season which will have teams viewing him as a third-stringer over an NHL backup and will price him accordingly. Anderson settled for the minimum for this season and while he played well early, his injury situation offsets that. As for Tokarski, his AAV will go up by default since it’s below the minimum salary but he’s another goalie that’s more viewed as organizational depth than a full-fledged NHL regular. That will keep him around the minimum as well.
Two Years Remaining
F Rasmus Asplund ($825K, RFA)
F Anders Bjork ($1.6MM, RFA)
F Kyle Okposo ($6MM, UFA)
F Tage Thompson ($1.4MM, RFA)
F Zemgus Girgensons ($2.2MM, UFA)
Okposo is part of that ill-fated 2016 UFA class and he hasn’t lived up to that contract. That said, he’s very quietly having a pretty good season and has produced at a pace that would be close to his best year with Buffalo. It doesn’t mean he’s going to get a lot of interest two summers from now though. He’ll be looking at something closer to a quarter of his current rate unless this production sustains itself for the next season and a half. Girgensons just hasn’t been able to produce with enough consistency to justify an above-average contract for someone whose best suited to play on the fourth line. There was some hope of late-blooming upside before but he’ll be 29 at the end of this deal. If the improvement hasn’t come by then, it’s probably not coming at all.
As for the restricted free agents, Bjork wasn’t able to sustain his late-season uptick in points after being acquired from Boston. At this point, with a $1.8MM qualifying offer needed, he looks like a non-tender candidate with his UFA market value being around half of that number. Thompson, on the other hand, is on an upward trajectory. His offensive production has finally come around and his combination of size and skill make him a candidate for a long-term deal with how much teams are willing to spend in the hopes of keeping a power forward in the fold. As long as his scoring burst isn’t just a short-term thing, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he triples his $1.6MM qualifying offer. As for Asplund, he has provided a decent return on close to a league minimum salary this season. A similar showing in the second half of this season and next could put him in the $2MM range on his next deal. All three of these players are arbitration-eligible in 2023.
Three Years Remaining
D Rasmus Dahlin ($6MM, RFA)
D Henri Jokiharju ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Casey Mittelstadt ($2.5MM, RFA)
Mittelstadt hasn’t been able to stay healthy this season which makes it hard to make any early forecast on this contract. If he can secure a regular top-six role by then, that should at least have him in line to push beyond his $2.6MM qualifying offer in his final year of RFA eligibility. A long-term contract that buys out some UFA time could push him past the $4MM mark, more if his production is strong over the next two seasons.
The decision to bridge Dahlin made sense as the 2018 top pick hasn’t been able to become that elite number one defender just yet but was still showing some positive development signs. If he can get to that level by the end of this deal, he’d earn well beyond his $7.2MM qualifying offer and he’ll only have one RFA season remaining in 2024. The bridge buys them some time but at some point, a long-term pact will need to be worked out. Jokiharju has turned into a capable second-pairing player in Buffalo and should be a useful secondary piece of their long-term future core. That should have him pushing for more than $4MM on his next contract if he can pick up his production as this deal goes on. Again, he’ll only have the one RFA year left at this time.
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Winnipeg Jets
In the spirit of the holiday season, PHR has been taking a look at what teams are thankful for as the season approaches the midway mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Winnipeg Jets as we wrap up our series.
What are the Jets thankful for?
Their deep top end of their forward group. Pierre-Luc Dubois has been much better in his first full season with Winnipeg, giving the Jets a strong one-two punch with him and Mark Scheifele. Kyle Connor is having a standout season, averaging a point per game while playing in all situations. Nikolaj Ehlers and Blake Wheeler are still top-six options while Andrew Copp is on pace for a career year (while logging over 20 minutes a game). Paul Stastny is a versatile player that can play both down the middle and on the wing and is still capable of playing in the top six when called upon. That’s seven quality top-six forwards at their disposal, a luxury that not a lot of teams have.
Who are the Jets thankful for?
For the last three seasons, he has led the league in shots faced and as Winnipeg makes up their games in hand over the coming months after having several postponed games, there’s a good chance that he makes it four in a row. At a time where many teams are looking more favorably at the idea of a platoon or tandem situation, Hellebuyck has been the old-school starter, logging heavy minutes. His numbers are down a little bit this season but still above average but he’s only two years removed from winning the Vezina Trophy while he finished fourth in voting last year. He still has two years left on his contract at a very reasonable price $6.167MM for someone that logs the minutes he does.
What would the Jets be even more thankful for?
Getting more from their defense. Kevin Cheveldayoff spent a lot of resources over the offseason to rebuild their back end after it was exposed as a weakness last season with the additions of Nate Schmidt and Brendan Dillon. They were supposed to complement a pair of strong offensive defenders in Neal Pionk and Josh Morrissey to give them a well-rounded group. However, Winnipeg hasn’t received a lot of production from their back end with just ten goals in total, half of which came from Morrissey. As a result, the effects from that upgrade really haven’t been felt – they’ve been better defensively but that has been mitigated with a drop in output. Getting the production back would give them the best of both worlds and really give them a boost heading into what will be a busy second half of the season.
What should be on the Jets’ wish list?
There’s a big difference here between what they will want and what they can actually do. Once Wheeler is able to come off LTIR (which will be in the next few days), their cap space will be gone and they’ll have to soon drop to close to a minimum-sized roster to get back to compliance. So while they’d undoubtedly love to try to add (either up front or defensive depth), they’re going to be very limited in what they can afford as they’ll have to match money or add someone making close to the minimum and send someone down to make room. That means they’ll be forced to shop more for depth pieces. Adding some veteran depth up front would be beneficial and while finding a cheap goalie will be a tough, an insurance policy behind Eric Comrie is something Cheveldayoff should want to do.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Washington Capitals
In the spirit of the holiday season, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season approaches the midway mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Washington Capitals.
What are the Capitals thankful for?
Young depth.
Make no mistake, the Capitals are still one of the most veteran teams in the league, relying mostly on the same core that took them to the 2018 Stanley Cup. But this year has been a little different on the fringes of the roster, where young players are starting to make a difference. Connor McMichael (21), Brett Leason (22), and Aliaksei Protas (21) have all been regulars this season, adding some entry-level contracts to the mix up front. Martin Fehervary (22) has also worked his way into the top-four on defense, giving the team another extremely cheap option.
It’s that inexpensive depth that allows the Capitals to spend so much on their top names, including more than half the cap on the top-six forwards. For everyone mentioned above except Leason, who is an RFA at the end of the season, those entry-level contracts will still be in effect for next year as well, when they should presumably play an even bigger role.
Who are the Capitals thankful for?
The Russian Machine.
Alex Ovechkin is having the best offensive season of his career at age 36. Through 39 games he is now on pace for 113 points, which would be one more than his career-high set in 2007-08. He’s currently the leader for both the Art Ross and Rocket Richard trophies; no one has won both in the same season since he did it in 2008. While it’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll actually win them, this performance is an absolutely incredible accomplishment for one of the league’s all-time greats.
Not only is Ovechkin dominating on the ice and helping the Capitals win, but he’s also one of the most marketable stars in the league. His pursuit of Wayne Gretzky‘s all-time goals record–Ovechkin needs just 138 to catch the Great One–is a storyline that every hockey fan can appreciate and get invested in. Signed to another five-year deal last summer, it appears it will only be a matter of time before Ovechkin is at the top of the goal-scoring mountain.
What would the Capitals be even more thankful for?
More consistency from Ilya Samsonov.
When Samsonov came over from the KHL, he was lauded as one of the best goaltenders in the world that wasn’t currently in the NHL. After all, he had been a first-round pick by the Capitals in 2015 and had put up outstanding KHL numbers since he was a teenager. In his rookie season in North America he struggled in the minor leagues, but there was still plenty of optimism about his future.
After three up-and-down seasons, the question is starting to be raised about whether he’s really the long-term answer in Washington. Samsonov has just a .903 save percentage in 21 appearances this season and though that has resulted in a strong 13-4-3 record, it’s certainly not instilling a ton of confidence in fans that want another Stanley Cup. Samsonov has provided -4.0 goals saved above average, 18th-worst among all goaltenders in the NHL this season. This Washington team is good enough to contend and Vitek Vanecek has been a decent complementary option, but Samsonov taking the next step could really push them over the edge into a dominant group.
What should be on the Capitals’ wish list?
A scoring winger.
There’s basically nothing the Capitals can do this deadline without moving money out somewhere else, but if they could, adding offense on the wing would be priority number one. In a perfect world that role is filled by Anthony Mantha, coming back from shoulder surgery and stepping directly into the top-six. But Mantha isn’t even expected to start skating until next month and is still “nowhere close” to a return according to Tarik El-Bashir of The Athletic.
The other options just haven’t been quite good enough to this point. Outside of Ovechkin and Tom Wilson, the Capitals’ best offensive winger to this point has been Conor Sheary with 10 goals and 19 points in 31 games. T.J. Oshie has been hampered by injury and illness all season, so he should easily climb to that third spot at some point, but that still leaves a hole where more secondary scoring needs to come.
Again, it will be extremely difficult for the Capitals to make an addition without shedding salary but there is actually a bit of opportunity there. Michal Kempny still costs $1.375MM against the cap despite being on the taxi squad, while Mantha’s placement on LTIR currently opens a bit of space that they could use in the interim. If Ovechkin wasn’t scoring at a career-best place, the offense would probably be a big talking point in Washington. Fixing that problem before it really becomes one may be prudent.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Vegas Golden Knights
In the spirit of the holiday season, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season approaches the midway mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Vegas Golden Knights.
What are the Golden Knights thankful for?
Fearless management and excellent pro scouts.
If there’s one thing that George McPhee and Kelly McCrimmon have proven since the Golden Knights came into the league in 2017, it’s that they are willing to make a big splash. Be it through trade–Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, Robin Lehner, and Jack Eichel–or free agency–Alex Pietrangelo–they haven’t been afraid to go after the top available names.
But even though McPhee and McCrimmon may get the press, it’s been the pro scouting for Vegas that has been so impressive so far. Even moving past the exceptional job they did by identifying underutilized players like William Karlsson in the expansion draft, the case of Chandler Stephenson stands out as a huge example of why Vegas has been so successful.
Acquired from the Washington Capitals in late 2019 for a fifth-round pick, Stephenson was nothing more than a part-time bottom-six option. He had just three goals and four points in 24 games for the Capitals that season, but almost immediately found success in an increased role with Vegas. The team quickly extended him to a four-year deal, knowing they had a bargain on their hands. This season, Stephenson is proving he can be a legitimate top-line option, scoring 36 points through 38 games while averaging more than 19 minutes a game. Not bad for a 2021 fifth-round pick.
Who are the Golden Knights thankful for?
Speaking of pro scouting, another incredible success story in Vegas was the acquisition and subsequent extension of Theodore. Acquired from the Anaheim Ducks for expansion draft considerations–the Golden Knights would end up selecting Clayton Stoner‘s contract–Theodore arrived in Vegas with only 55 NHL games under his belt. He passed that number in the first year with the Golden Knights and the organization wasted no time locking him up.
He’s not the only difference-making defender the Golden Knights have, but while Pietrangelo costs $8.8MM per season and will turn 32 in a few days, Theodore carries a cap hit of just $5.2MM through the 2024-25 season and is squarely in his prime at 26. Since the start of 2018-19, his first season without any time in the minor leagues, Theodore ranks ninth among all NHL defensemen in points.
What would the Golden Knights be even more thankful for?
A strong second half from Robin Lehner.
When the Golden Knights were forced to move Marc-Andre Fleury last summer in order to create cap space, the reaction among the fanbase was not good. A ton of pressure was put on Lehner to take over as the full-time starter, and though he hasn’t failed exactly, it’s not going great. The 30-year-old netminder is actually having the worst season of his career in terms of save percentage, notching a .905 through his first 27 appearances.
While that’s still been good enough to record 15 wins with the strong Golden Knights team, and Lehner has been a bit better of late, a strong second half could put this team over the top. Remember, this is a goaltender had a .923 over the last three seasons and has twice taken home the Jennings Trophy as part of the tandem with the lowest goals-against-average.
What should be on the Golden Knights’ wish list?
Some cheap cap relief.
Frankly, there’s not much that the Golden Knights can actually add to their team at the deadline because of the cap situation they find themselves in. With Eichel approaching a return they will actually likely have to shed salary at some point, meaning the most important thing now will be getting something of value in return for whatever they have to send packing. Whether it’s Reilly Smith, Evgenii Dadonov, or something else, other general managers will certainly have all the leverage in negotiations.
Still, Pacioretty’s injury buys the team some time to work and the pieces they might decide to shed are still valuable players. From a front office that has worked out complex trades in the past, getting out of a little cap trouble doesn’t seem like that big of an issue.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Vancouver Canucks
In the spirit of the holiday season, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season approaches the midway mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Vancouver Canucks.
What are the Canucks thankful for?
New leadership.
Quite frankly, former Canucks GM Jim Benning should have been fired a long time ago. After a stint with the Boston Bruins front office, Benning took over as general manager of the Canucks in 2014. After making it back to the playoffs in year one, Vancouver missed in five of the next six seasons, only making it to the postseason in the 2020 bubble.
Not only did they fail to have any substantive on-ice success, but they also routinely missed on high draft picks despite Benning earning a reputation as a good scout. Jake Virtanen (sixth overall 2014), and Olli Juolevi (5th overall 2016) were both huge whiffs for the organization, while second-round picks like Jonah Gadjovich, Kole Lind, and Jett Woo have also failed to make much of an impact at the NHL level to this point. Even with a team still quite far from contending for a Stanley Cup, the Canucks ranked 28th in Scott Wheeler’s recent prospect pool rankings for The Athletic.
It’s not that Jim Rutherford is guaranteed success in Vancouver, but fans have been clamoring for change longer than most bases. Just having a different voice is important after so much failure.
Who are the Canucks thankful for?
There have been a lot of astute hockey minds saying things like “Travis Green is a good coach, he’ll land on his feet elsewhere” since the Canucks made a change behind the bench, but there was no doubt a new brand of coaching needed to be brought in. Boudreau has gone 8-2-1 since arriving in Vancouver, continuing his history of finding immediate success when he arrives in struggling markets.
Once again, it’s not that there is a guarantee this will continue–in fact, it looks as though the new coach bump might already be wearing off–but there needed to be a new voice behind the bench. Notably, the veteran coach appears to have a positive impact on Brock Boeser, the team’s struggling sniper. Five of his nine goals this season came in the six games leading into the holiday break, all under Boudreau.
What would the Canucks be even more thankful for?
An Elias Pettersson sighting.
One of the most puzzling things to happen to the Canucks this season has been the disappearance of their young star. Pettersson, the 2019 Calder Trophy winner and a player who earned Hart Trophy votes in 2020, has looked completely lost at times. After scoring 153 points in his first 165 games in the NHL, Pettersson has just 17 in 36 this season, good for sixth on the Canucks’ roster.
The team was never expected to really contend for a Stanley Cup this season, but without Pettersson playing to the level he once did, it will be difficult to even stay competitive in the Pacific Division. There are excuses that could be used–a long injury and a missed training camp in particular–but after signing a three-year, $22.05MM deal in October, Pettersson has to be better.
What should be on the Canucks’ wish list?
Cap relief.
When Benning and his staff went out and acquired Conor Garland and Oliver Ekman-Larsson last summer, they ensured that the team would be capped out not only this season but moving forward as well. The Canucks have more than $71MM owed to just 15 players for 2022-23, not leaving much flexibility.
If Rutherford realizes that this group isn’t going to get it done, biting the bullet on some tough trades would be the move at the deadline. Moving out Ekman-Larsson or Tyler Myers would probably be the best options, but names like Boeser, J.T. Miller, and even captain Bo Horvat will have to be discussed at some point. It’s not that these are all players that can no longer contribute, but right now the Canucks are basically locked into this group, with free agent negotiations on the horizon and no real success to show for it.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Calgary Flames
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2021-22 season and beyond. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Calgary Flames
Current Cap Hit: $79,991,525 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
No regulars in Calgary’s lineup are on entry-level deals.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
F Johnny Gaudreau ($6.75MM, UFA)
D Erik Gudbranson ($1.95MM, UFA)
F Trevor Lewis ($800K, UFA)
D Oliver Kylington ($750K, RFA)
F Andrew Mangiapane ($2.325MM, RFA)
F Tyler Pitlick ($1.75MM, UFA)
F Brad Richardson ($800K, UFA)
F Brett Ritchie ($900K, UFA)
D Michael Stone ($750K, UFA)
F Matthew Tkachuk ($7MM, RFA)
D Nikita Zadorov ($3.75MM, UFA)
Gaudreau is obviously the UFA to watch for here. After a couple of quieter years, he has bounced back somewhat this season and is averaging just over a point per game, a mark he has only reached twice in his career. That will certainly give his value a boost at the right time. There are two big questions here – what is he worth and is it worth it for Calgary to pay that? He’ll be 29 to start next season so a max-term contract isn’t out of the question (eight years for the Flames, seven for everyone else) with the last couple being a little cheaper in salary to lower the AAV. Still, it’s quite possible that Gaudreau pushes past the $8MM range and since he is part of a core group that has largely underachieved, should Calgary willingly pay a fair bit more to keep it together? If Gaudreau wants top dollar, I’m not sure it comes from the Flames.
The other big one to watch for obviously is Tkachuk. He’s subject to the old qualifying offer rule which means a $9MM offer needs to be tendered to retain his rights. It’s hard to see him willingly taking a long-term deal at that price point so GM Brad Treliving will need to go higher than that to stop the 24-year-old from taking the offer and heading straight to UFA eligibility in 2023. Another RFA in line for a significant raise is Mangiapane, their top goal-getter this season. With arbitration eligibility and potentially a 30-goal year under his belt (he’s more than halfway there at 18), it’s not unrealistic to think he has a shot at doubling his current price tag. If Calgary pays all three of those, they could be looking at adding $7MM or more just to retain their current forwards let alone add to the group.
As for the other forwards, Pitlick hasn’t had a good season and has struggled since coming over from Seattle. He’ll likely have to settle for something closer to the $1MM range next year as a result. Ritchie, Lewis, and Richardson have all recently gone through the UFA market and deals at just above the minimum were all they were able to get. None have done enough to drastically improve their fortunes much beyond what they’re making now.
On the back end, Zadorov hasn’t quite fit in as well as Calgary hoped as he has been scratched at times and on the third pairing for most of the year. That’s only going to hurt his value instead of the change of scenery from Chicago helping it. His value is tough to peg as someone in his role should be making less than half of what he currently is but it still wouldn’t be surprising if he wound up with a deal in the $2.75MM or more range in the summer. Gudbranson continues to be a physical player on the third pairing and after taking a cut last summer, another small dip is likely. Kylington will be in a much different situation as he has been one of Calgary’s best offensive blueliners this season and will have arbitration eligibility this time around. Some sheltered minutes could play a factor in a hearing but him landing something around $2MM is probably doable. Stone is a depth player and has been for a few years now and he’ll either re-sign for the minimum or they’ll find another depth player willing to play for that salary.
Two Years Remaining
F Milan Lucic ($5.25MM, UFA)*
D Connor Mackey ($913K, RFA)
F Sean Monahan ($6.375MM, UFA)
D Juuso Valimaki ($1.55MM, RFA)
G Daniel Vladar ($750K, RFA)
*-Edmonton is retaining another $750K on Lucic’s deal
Monahan has seen his value dip in recent years and this season hasn’t gone particularly well either. He’s not the number one center they hoped he’d be but lately, he hasn’t even been a second-line pivot. If Monahan can get back to that level, a contract that’s only a bit below his current AAV is still manageable. However, if his current trend continues, something in the $3.5MM to $4MM range becomes more realistic. Lucic is nowhere near the player he once was and is now more of a role player (although with eight goals this season, he’s still contributing a bit offensively). If he gets another contract beyond this one, it will be more commensurate with a fourth liner.
Valimaki’s bridge deal seemed reasonable at the time but after hardly playing in the first two months of the year, he’s in the minors. Waivers will take that option off the table next season but if he’s still barely playing at that time, his $1.86MM qualifying offer could be an issue. Mackey is on a one-way deal which warrants at least a mention here although he has been in AHL Stockton all season. Again, that won’t be an option next year without waivers which could earn him a spot and if he can do that, he could be kept around the $1MM mark.
Vladar has impressed in his first full-time NHL role, albeit in sporadic minutes as the backup goaltender. With how head coach Darryl Sutter is using Vladar, it’s going to be hard for him to command high-end backup money two years from now although something beyond the $2MM mark is certainly a possibility.
Three Years Remaining
F Mikael Backlund ($5.35MM, UFA)
F Dillon Dube ($2.3MM, RFA)
D Noah Hanifin ($4.95MM, UFA)
F Elias Lindholm ($4.85MM, UFA)
D Chris Tanev ($4.5MM, UFA)
Backlund has been a reliable secondary scorer for Calgary while being a key piece defensively for most of the contract. The scoring part hasn’t been there this season, however, and with Monahan and Lindholm also in the fold, he looks like a possible candidate to be moved if Treliving wants to shake things up. Given the demand for centers, there will still be a good market for him. Lindholm has become quite the bargain since coming over from Carolina as he has become the consistent scoring threat that he wasn’t able to be with the Hurricanes while transitioning to playing back down the middle full-time. Assuming he can continue on that trajectory for the next few years, he could land a few extra million per year in 2024. Dube had gradually taken some steps forward over the last couple of seasons, convincing Calgary to give him this three-year deal last offseason. The early returns haven’t been great as he has been more of an energy player than a secondary producer but there’s still time for him to turn it around.
Hanifin isn’t a top-pairing defender as his draft stock suggested he would be when he went fifth overall in 2015 but he’s a quality top-four player who can log some heavy minutes. He’ll hit the open market at 27 in the prime of his career and should be able to command close to a max-term contract with a fairly significant bump in pay at that time. Tanev, on the other hand, is in the back end of his career. While he remains a quality defender, his injury history and a lack of production make this a contract that might not age well over the last few seasons.