The biggest news in the hockey world right now is the offer sheet that the Carolina Hurricanes signed with Jesperi Kotkaniemi. The Montreal Canadiens have just a few more days to decide whether or not to match the one-year $6.1MM contract and keep Kotaniemi or let him go to the Hurricanes in exchange for first- and third-round picks.
The decision, some say, is an easy one—it’s the answer that many disagree on.
The Canadiens could just wave goodbye, collect their picks and go after another center, knowing that Kotkaniemi is not worth anywhere near that $6.1MM price tag this season. The deal would force either team to extend a qualifying offer of the same amount moving forward, though if the player is willing, an extension could also be worked out at a lower number. Two picks could help Montreal in a search for a different player, with many pointing to Jack Eichel as the name they could pursue with some added draft capital.
Because he has disappointed up until now, it’s easy to forget just how young and talented Kotkaniemi is. He turned 21 just last month and already has 200 NHL games under his belt. He has scored just 84 points in those games, including 12 in 29 postseason appearances, but there is obviously room to grow. Even if he was perhaps a mistake at third-overall in 2018–the existence of Brady Tkachuk and Quinn Hughes would certainly argue so–that doesn’t mean he’s a worthless asset. In fact, it seems likely that the Canadiens could have gotten at least a late-first and a third for him had they decided to trade Kotkaneimi this offseason, probably more.
But now that the Hurricanes have forced their hand, it’s one or the other. Overpay a player who has not lived up to the hype to this point and is obviously not fully trusted by the coaching staff, or take that package (and only that package) as compensation. If they do match it, Montreal can’t trade Kotkaniemi for a year, meaning there’s no sign-and-flip coming.
For whatever you think of the player, it’s not easy to watch a third-overall pick walk out the door just six weeks after his 21st birthday. There’s a very real chance that Kotkaniemi not only lives up to his billing as a top-six center, but he could still be exactly what the Canadiens are looking for as a long-term complement to Nick Suzuki down the middle.
It’s not an easy decision for Montreal GM Marc Bergevin, but perhaps it is for you! Cast your vote below and explain your thoughts in the comment section.
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Definitely should take the compensation and swing those picks + other assets in a trade. KK will become a third line center at best, not good enough with his playmaking game. Very good defensively and has a good wrist shot though, take that from a guy who saw him play nearly all his games in the NHL.
Hes 21. Yknow how many young players that became superstars that were described by professional scouts like that in the beginning of their career? You think people reach their potential in hockey at the age of 21?!?!?!?!?
Aint no reason to take your word for anyghing. Ever.
Anyone who thinks they should is insane
They most definitely should
Rumour from Dreger is that KK has an extension in the works to bring down AAV.
The Habs have no such deal, and it doesnt seem like KK is inclined to give them one. So they not only have to pay $6.1 this year, but have to qualify him at that next year.
Thats way too much for what he brings.
The Habs are snookered here. They have to let him walk.
And I dont think they are likely to be able to recover in the short term. If Christian Dvorak was available for a 1st and a 3rd, Carolina would have traded for him instead of the offer sheet.
heck no. he’s just not worth it.
$6.1M? Whoever is doing the salary bean counting for the Canes needs to put down the crack pipe..
Ya but if he signs a extension that’s rumoured to be in the low 4s then it’s not a bad deal for Carolina while also making a rivalry that should generate some additional revenue for both clubs
Unless he never elevates his game beyond a third line guy.
“Mr. Dundon, should we spend money to upgrade our goaltending or improve our roster or keep Dougie Hamilton?”
“No, Don, we need to keep a few extra million in cap space handy in case I can find any way to troll Marc Bergevin and the Canadiens, no matter how ill advised.”
You don’t become a billionaire without being a petty ahole.
The trolling was secondary. Whether or not you agree that wanting him is a good idea, they want KK.
Was it, though?
It was not THE most obvious hockey move for them. Probably could have had Tarasenko for less if they are going to use Kotkaniemi as a wing.
Would they have done this if Kotkaniemi were a Sen or a Jet and not a Hab? I lean towards no.
FTR, my opinion on this situation is that MTL would be insane to match and that it could still work out for CAR, too. Could, but far from certain. So few contenders this year, if nothing else I like it in the short term for them.
Signs and stories seem to point to them really wanting him, yeah. Maybe they dont do it to another team but I dont believe for a second they would blow up the team on a troll-first move, and neither do some analysts.
This is a player that they clearly want long term, so no, they’re not doing this based on trolling. They wanted to add him to their org and this was the best way for them to do it with Montreal seemingly unwilling to play ball in a trade. They still have a relatively young team (core) and they have enough insulation for him to be able to play through struggles and figure out his game at the NHL level.
Just like duud previously said, despite you agreeing with it, thats the kid they want. Maybe they do use him at wing, which helps get him acclimated to the NHL without the added responsibility of a center. Very well could be a transitional replacement for aging trocheck who never really seemed to mesh as well as he should have. Maybe adam larsson is the wrong dman for a straight up trade with hall. But thats the guy they want.
Despite you wanting a 30 year old whos had shoulder injuries the last 2 years. They want a young center.
Keep KK, dump MB.
If they can’t work out an extension, of course not. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Carolina already has one worked out. No lose situation for them and they really forced Bergevin into an uncomfortable spot at this point of the offseason.
I keep going back and forth but the downside to matching seems to clearly outweigh the upside.
Worst case scenario for MTL: They match, and KK’s development continues to stagnate; coaching staff continues to not trust him and an off-ice distraction is created; they can’t trade him, and in a year he refuses to sign a multi-year extension knowing that when they don’t qualify him at $6.1M he becomes a free agent and chooses where he wants to play at 22 years old. Pretty good deal for the kid!
Not only have the Habs hurt their cap situation this season, but they lose the asset for nothing after a rough year.
Best case scenario for MTL is that he immediately blossoms into a legit 2C and is amiable to signing long-term at a reasonable cost. They’ll still need to make a trade to get under the cap which likely will weaken the roster. But they have their #3 overall pick and he’s an integral part of the team moving forward.
Are we buying a strong likelihood of the latter scenario happening? I’m not. MB should swallow his pride and take the picks.
KK’s value can be measured in 3’s – He’s a third liner, worth about $3 million, which you’d like to lock up for about 3 years and who probably should net you a third rounder in return.
Anyone who expects more is gambling on him finding a level that we really haven’t seen and an opportunity he may not be given in Montreal. Are you putting him in your top 6? Is he getting PP minutes? He’s a fine player, but limited by skill and opportunity.
Getting a first and third for him is a ton of surplus value. Yes there aren’t many sexy replacement options available at the moment, but you pocket that value while you can, because you’re never getting a better return.
And he was picked 3rd overall! Woah, *insert Charlie Kelly gif here*
Take the picks and let Dundon figure out where to slot a guy who scored 5 goals last season and who has 3 centers ahead of him who are far better than he is.
2LW
What’s not to like about this for Carolina? This is 90% about getting a player they want and 10% about trolling MB. CAR has strong connections to Finnish hockey, so they know a heck of a lot more about KK and his potential than Montreal fans. They tried to trade for him, but MB said no. The insiders have said that there’s no doubt that CAR has an agreement with KK that he’ll be paid less than 6 million on extension. Also, don’t overstate the value of CAR’s picks. Given the likelihood they again go deep in the playoffs, late first- and third-round picks aren’t that great of a return value.
And to the guy who mocked CAR letting Dougie Hamilton walk—please explain how a D who scores in the low 40s and has defensive lapses at inopportune times is worth $9 million a year? No way CAR was going to pay DH that much.
The downside is that they could spend 6.1M on a much better player.
Obviously not as they chose not to or none of the FAs would sign for that amount.
Specifically who do you think they COULD have signed on a one year 6.1M contract?
I think the one year part prevents you from getting anyone else.
I’d think there must be a plan where he signs an extension at a lower AAV otherwise why wouldn’t just have given him a multi year offer at 5.5+ etc?
But it’s not really just a one year deal, as the Canes wouldn’t be doing this just for one year of his services. Was there no UFA this summer or other trade candidate that would’ve filled the role needed better than JK?
I tend to think there were.
We dont know… maybe the asking price on someone like Tarasenko is much higher than a 1st and a 3rd.