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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Minnesota Wild

at CDT | by 3 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading for the 2021-22 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Minnesota Wild

Current Cap Hit: $78,453,086 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

Minnesota has some players who could see time with them at some point this season in Matt Boldy (two years, $881K) and Marco Rossi (three years, $894K) but neither figure to play prominent roles or reach their Class A bonuses.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Jordie Benn ($900K, UFA)
F Nick Bjugstad ($900K, UFA)
F Kevin Fiala ($5.1MM, RFA)
D Alex Goligoski ($5MM, UFA)
F Jordan Greenway ($2.1MM, RFA)
G Kaapo Kahkonen ($725K, RFA)
D Jon Merrill ($850K, UFA)
F Rem Pitlick ($918K, RFA)
F Victor Rask ($4MM, UFA)
F Nico Sturm ($725K, UFA)

The decision the Wild made to take Fiala to arbitration was a bit of a curious one.  While it ensured he’d be with the team for training camp, it also gave him the opportunity to elect a two-year term that would walk him right to UFA eligibility.  That didn’t happen as they settled on this one-year pact which still gives Fiala the right to opt for arbitration next summer and take another one-year deal.  It also gives Minnesota one more opportunity to try to lock him up long term but with the dead cap money they have on the books for the next few years, fitting it in could be tricky.  This situation will be one to monitor.

Rask’s contract is finally set to come off the books after being acquired in a trade two years ago that hasn’t worked out well at all.  As someone who is better suited for a very limited role now, he may have to settle for a quarter of his current rate next summer.  Greenway’s bridge deal gave the Wild some extra short-term flexibility and a chance to evaluate his potential for being a long-term fixture.  He has shown some improvement but he hasn’t quite established himself as a top-six piece either.  A one-year deal that keeps him RFA-eligible next summer may be in Minnesota’s best interest.  Bjugstad, Pitlick, and Sturm are all role players that will need to be willing to sign for similar low-cost rates to stick around.

Goligoski decided to sign with his hometown team in the offseason, taking a higher one-year deal over a multi-year pact that carried some longer-term security.  He’s more of a fourth or fifth option at this stage of his career and could be looking at something closer to the $3MM mark next summer.  Benn and Merrill are both depth defenders that didn’t have a lot of interest in free agency this year – it took a month for Benn to get this deal – and similar contracts are likely unless one of them plays their way into a bigger role.

Kahkonen has settled in as the backup but barring something unexpected, his experience in terms of NHL appearances is going to be limited – likely somewhere in the range of 55 career games.  That’s not going to help his case in arbitration.  He has two years of team control remaining so he either takes a one-year deal (likely in the $2MM range) or a multi-year pact closer to $3MM but the latter may be tough to afford.

Two Years Remaining

F Brandon Duhaime ($750K, RFA)
D Mathew Dumba ($6MM, UFA)
F Frederick Gaudreau ($1.2MM, UFA)
D Dmitry Kulikov ($2.25MM, UFA)
G Cam Talbot ($3.667MM, UFA)

Gaudreau has largely been in the minors in his career but a good showing in limited action with Pittsburgh took him from a two-way deal to two years at seven figures.  He’ll need to lock down a regular role in each season to land that contract in 2023.  So far, so good on that front.  Duhaime earned the final spot on the roster in training camp and he has done well on the fourth line.  He’ll get a small raise on his next deal with the next increase in the NHL minimum salary and could get a bit more than that if he can stick with the Wild and not be shuffled down to Iowa.

Dumba’s future is about as secure as it has been for a while as gone are the days that had him in frequent trade speculation.  He’s one of their top blueliners and will only be 29 when his deal is up so a max-term contract or close to it shouldn’t be off the table.  He should come in a tier below some of the big deals handed out this past summer but something that pushes the AAV near the $8MM range certainly seems doable at this point.  Kulikov makes a bit much for the spot on the third pairing he currently occupies but if he can hold his own in the top four when injuries arise, they’ll get an okay return on this deal.

Talbot is well below the median salary for starters but did well in that role last season.  Even so, it’s hard to forecast a guaranteed raise for him since he’ll be 36 on his next deal and may be better off with one-year deals with incentives that could push the total compensation around the $4MM mark; those aren’t available on multi-year pacts for 35-plus players.

Three Years Remaining

F Marcus Foligno ($3.1MM, UFA)
F Ryan Hartman ($1.7MM, UFA)
F Mats Zuccarello ($6MM, UFA)

Zuccarello had a quiet first season but was certainly better in 2020-21, producing at a level that’s close to the top line which is what he’s being paid to do.  He’ll turn 37 for his next contract and is another candidate to do a one-year, incentive-laden deal at that time, especially if his production drops off towards the end of the contract.  Foligno’s contract seemed a little high when it was signed back in January but with how the UFA market went over the summer, it’s a market-value contract.  Whether or not he can stay healthy will go a long way towards what his next deal will be as staying in the lineup has been an issue and the style he plays doesn’t always age well.  Hartman has been able to work his way up the depth chart compared to where he was in his previous stops and a middle-six winger signed for $1.7MM for three years is pretty good value although he’ll need to step up his production past the 20-point mark to have a shot at landing a much pricier deal in 2024.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Montreal Canadiens

at CDT | by 8 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading for the 2021-22 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Montreal Canadiens

Current Cap Hit: $90,481,370 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Cole Caufield (two years, $881K)
D Alexander Romanov (one year, $894K)
F Nick Suzuki (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Caufield: $300K
Romanov: $637.5K
Suzuki: $537.5K
Total: $1.475MM

Caufield joined Montreal late last season and wound up playing in their top six pretty much the rest of the way including for most of their playoff run.  Viewed as a possible contender for the Calder Trophy, expectations are quite high for the 20-year-old who is a candidate to bypass a bridge contract and sign a long-term pact.  That’s what happened with Suzuki (we’ll get to his extension later) who is quite the bargain this season before his next deal kicks in.  Both players have very good chances of hitting their bonuses.

Romanov played a regular role during the regular season but hardly played during the playoffs.  This season, he has moved up and down early on and hasn’t really locked down a spot in the top four.  That has him trending towards a bridge contract while he could hit one or two of the three ‘A’ bonuses in his deal.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Adam Brooks ($725K, RFA)
D Ben Chiarot ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Brett Kulak ($1.85MM, UFA)
F Artturi Lehkonen ($2.3MM, RFA)
G Sam Montembeault ($750K, RFA)
D Sami Niku ($750K, RFA)
F Cedric Paquette ($950K, UFA)
F Mathieu Perreault ($950K, UFA)
D Chris Wideman ($750K, UFA)

Lehkonen has been an effective checker for Montreal for the past few seasons but his price tag is approaching the point where he’s getting too expensive for that role.  If he winds up on the fourth line for a good chunk of the season, he becomes a non-tender candidate.  Otherwise, if he scores enough to stick around, his raise shouldn’t be too substantial.  Paquette and Perreault signed as unrestricted free agents back in July and have had limited roles so far this season.  With the cap crunch that’s looming, this is the price tag they’ll need their fourth liners to have, if not a little lower.  If they take something like that next summer, a return is possible.  Brooks was added on waivers and will need to have close to a regular role to avoid Group VI UFA status.  At this point, he should be able to get a small raise – particularly if he becomes UFA-eligible – but should still be in the six-figure range.

Chiarot’s contract with the Canadiens was a head-scratcher when he signed it in that it seemed to be well above his value but he has established himself as a top-four blueliner and his performance in the playoffs certainly helped his value.  A raise next summer certainly isn’t out of the question although it’s doubtful it will come in Montreal with their cap situation.  Kulak has played well at times and struggled at others, shifting him to a lower rung on the depth chart.  His spot is one they’ll likely want to carry someone a little cheaper in moving forward.  Wideman and Niku were added to try to add some firepower from the back end though both have struggled in their own end in the past which has hurt their value.  If one of them becomes a regular, there’s a case to be made for a raise next summer but if they’re in and out of the lineup, another contract close to the minimum is likely.

Montembeault was brought in as extra depth in the preseason and is basically a short-term placeholder as the backup right now.  It’s certainly not ideal from a development scenario – he turns 25 next week and has only 130 career professional appearances – and that will hurt his next contract unless he winds up being the number two option all season long.  At this point, another two-way deal near the NHL minimum is likely.

Two Years Remaining

G Jake Allen ($2.875MM, RFA)
F Paul Byron ($3.4MM, UFA)
F Jonathan Drouin ($5.5MM, UFA)

Drouin’s return has been a positive one after taking a leave of absence late last season.  On the whole, his production with Montreal hasn’t lived up to the price tag which would have him seemingly heading for a pay decrease unless he is able to establish himself as a consistent scoring threat over the next two seasons instead of being consistently inconsistent.  Byron has been one of the better waiver pickups in recent years but with where he is on Montreal’s depth chart when fully healthy (the fourth line), it’s a deal that’s well above market rate.  It’s a premium they could once afford but this contract will cause them some issues next summer.

Allen opted not to test the free agent market this past summer, instead inking a two-year deal shortly after being acquired and putting him on what appeared to be a pathway to Seattle until he wound up being protected.  Viewed as an above-average backup, he’s making a bit less than what typical second-stringers have recently landed on the open market.  They’ll get good value from this deal.

Three Years Remaining

D Joel Edmundson ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Mike Hoffman ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Tyler Toffoli ($4.25MM, UFA)

Hoffman didn’t have much luck in free agency a year ago, having to eventually settle for a one-year deal.  However, he fared much better this time around, signing this contract within a few hours of the market opening up.  A consistent scorer, Hoffman should fill some holes offensively for the Canadiens but his limitations otherwise make him a bit of a curious fit.  Toffoli, who is more of a two-way player, is a better fit for Montreal and is coming off a surprisingly strong first season with the Canadiens that saw him finish seventh in the league in goals scored.  That was a nice return for someone making the money of someone on the second line.

Edmundson’s first season with Montreal was a good one, as he earned a spot in their top four while logging over 20 minutes a game during the regular season and more than 23 minutes per night in the playoffs.  He doesn’t produce much offensively but players like him have been in the $3.5MM to $4MM range over the last couple of offseasons.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

at CDT | by 3 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading for the 2021-22 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $71,926,142 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Cody Glass (one year, $863K)
F Philip Tomasino (three years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses:
Glass: $850K

Glass was brought in as part of the three-team trade that sent Ryan Ellis to Philadelphia.  His first two professional seasons haven’t gone as expected as he failed to lock down a regular spot with Vegas, eventually leading to the swap.  He’ll get that chance with the Predators but it’s hard to see him doing so well to bypass a bridge contract in the process.  From a bonus perspective, he’ll need to work his way into a top-six role if he wants to have a shot at hitting some of his ‘A’ bonuses.  Tomasino had a great showing in the AHL last season which certainly played a role in him being slotted in as a regular going back to the summer when they moved Viktor Arvidsson.  He has the potential to be an impact scorer although projecting his next deal this early in his career isn’t really possible.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Matt Benning ($1MM, UFA)
D Mark Borowiecki ($2MM, UFA)
F Nick Cousins ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Filip Forsberg ($6MM, UFA)
F Rocco Grimaldi ($2MM, UFA)
D Ben Harpur ($800K, UFA)
F Luke Kunin ($2.3MM, RFA)
G David Rittich ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Yakov Trenin ($725K, RFA)

Forsberg’s contract situation garnered some attention recently when he suggested that his intent is to play out his deal and then decide what he wants to do from there.  That’s certainly within his rights but it’s not ideal for the Predators.  As their franchise forward, they’re going to want to know his intentions to know whether or not they’ll be moving him in the coming months which makes his case one to keep an eye on.  From a next contract standpoint, he’s in line to get a bit more than his current AAV but, barring a big 2021-22 season, it won’t be a substantial jump.  Gabriel Landeskog’s deal in Colorado (eight years, $7MM AAV) feels like the type of deal Forsberg might want to target if he’s looking to do a max-term contract.

Kunin’s first season with Nashville was similar to his last one with Minnesota – there were flashes of offensive upside and others where he, like many Predators, struggled offensively.  At this point, it’s unlikely the two sides could find middle ground on a long-term commitment so the likelier scenario is that this season plays out to give them a better idea of what’s to come.  A one-year deal that keeps him RFA-eligible and gives him a small raise is certainly a viable option.  Grimaldi wasn’t really able to duplicate his 2019-20 performance and is more of an in-and-out depth player.  His next deal could be cut in half accordingly.  Cousins is a steady fourth liner that can move up when needed and while there is definitely a need for that around the league, it’s a spot on the depth chart where teams are trying to save.  His next contract should come around this price tag as a result.  Trenin was a decent fourth liner last season and should have a similar role this year.  He’s arbitration-eligible but with a limited track record, it shouldn’t play much of a role.  He could crack the $1MM mark but not by much more unless he moves up the depth chart.

Borowiecki missed time last season due to a concussion as well as some mental health struggles and when he was in Nashville’s lineup, he had a very limited role.  Unless he’s able to lock down some more ice time, he’ll be hard-pressed to get the same money on the open market next summer.  Benning stepped in nicely on the third pairing last season with an uptick in ice time.  At this point, he’s still young enough to be viewed as a late-bloomer so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get a small raise next summer even though he didn’t fare well in his first trip in free agency in 2020.  Harpur cleared waivers at the start of last season and frequently bounced back and forth between the NHL roster and the taxi squad but managed to play a regular role in the second half of the season.  He has bounced around so far and is better off as a depth player so it’s unlikely he’ll command much more money next summer.

Two Years Remaining

D Dante Fabbro ($2.4MM, RFA)
D Philippe Myers ($2.55MM, RFA)
F Mathieu Olivier ($750K, RFA)

Olivier brought some energy to the fourth line last season, earning this one-way deal as a result.  Unless he can work his way into a regular spot though, he’s someone that should stay close to the minimum.

Myers was the centerpiece of the Ellis trade but is coming off a disappointing season with Philadelphia.  He’ll have the chance to rebound while playing a significant role with the Preds.  Assuming he does well in a top-four role, he’ll be in good shape to land a long-term contract in 2023 well beyond his $3.06MM qualifying offer.  Fabbro’s sophomore campaign wasn’t the best either which put him squarely in bridge contract territory this summer, one that he should be able to easily outperform.

Three Years Remaining

F Eeli Tolvanen ($1.45MM, RFA)

This was one of the more surprising contracts of the summer by the fact it was this low.  Granted, Tolvanen doesn’t have a lot of NHL success under his belt but as a first-round pick in 2017, there’s still some upside.  Nashville wants to feature him in a bigger role this season and there’s a very good chance that this will wind up being a very team-friendly deal while still keeping him under team control at the end of it.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: New Jersey Devils

at CDT | by Leave a Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New Jersey Devils

Current Cap Hit: $70,019,735 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Jesper Boqvist (one year, $925K)
F Jack Hughes (one year, $925K)
F Dawson Mercer (three years, $894K)
D Ty Smith (two years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses:
Hughes: $2.85MM
Mercer: $400K
Smith: $400K
Total: $3.65MM

Hughes showed some improvement in his second season but isn’t playing at the level that a recent first-overall selection is expected to.  Many expect him to take a step forward this year but it’s fair to wonder if that will be enough to get him a long-term deal or whether he’d be better off with a bridge.  Nico Hischier’s contract (more on that one later) would be the potential comparable but if Hughes thinks he can hit another level, his camp would be better off going for a short-term second contract.  On the bonus front, the ‘A’ portions are certainly attainable ($850K in total) while the ‘B’ ones seem unrealistic for him to get to.

Boqvist, who was sent down to start the season, should earn a limited role before too long.  As a result, a short-term second deal is likely.  Mercer made the team out of camp but it’s too early to assess whether he’ll be able to hit some bonuses while forecasting his next contract before he plays a game isn’t really doable.  There are other forwards (Tyce Thompson and Alexander Holtz) that could play their way onto the roster but they’re candidates to go back and forth which makes it unlikely their respective bonuses are hit.

Smith’s rookie season was an impressive one as he locked down a spot inside New Jersey’s top four on the back end while chipping in offensively.  Lots can change over the next two years but assuming he progresses, he’s looking at a significant raise and could be a candidate for a long-term pact that buys out a few UFA years as well.  His bonuses are certainly achievable as well.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Jesper Bratt ($2.75MM, RFA)
D/F Mason Geertsen ($725K, UFA)
D Christian Jaros ($800K, UFA)
D P.K. Subban ($9MM, UFA)
F Miles Wood ($2.75MM, RFA)
F Pavel Zacha ($2.25MM, RFA)

Bratt hasn’t emerged as an impact scorer yet but the speedster has put up at least 30 points in each of his four NHL seasons, including the pandemic-shortened last two years.  He eventually settled on a bridge deal just days before the regular season started although he’ll have arbitration eligibility and a $3.3MM qualifying offer (120% of the AAV) working in his favor this time around.  He needs to establish himself as a bigger threat if he wants to land a considerably higher price tag than that.  Wood is coming off a good season in the goal department with 17 in 55 games and has a $3.5MM qualifier coming his way.  That’s on the high side for someone who hasn’t scored 20 yet but they have the wiggle room to afford that raise even if he remains more of a secondary piece.  Zacha has slowly improved and quietly led the Devils in scoring last season.  He has a $3MM qualifier on the horizon and while he’s basically locked in on the third line with their first-overall picks holding down the top two spots, he can still be an impact piece.  A long-term deal in the $4MM range is a realistic scenario here if he’s around the 35-40-point mark again this season.

Subban is no longer the top-pairing player that he was when he signed this contract and durability has been a concern the last few years.  He’s more of a role player and his next deal might not even be half of his current rate.  He’ll be a candidate to be dealt between now and the trade deadline as long as New Jersey is willing to retain half of the price tag.  Jaros is a depth piece, a placeholder for some of their prospects until one of them is ready to come in.  Geertsen was a surprising waiver claim but with the role he’s likely to have, it’s unlikely he’ll garner much more than the minimum on his next contract.

Two Years Remaining

G Jonathan Bernier ($4.125MM, UFA)
G Mackenzie Blackwood ($2.8MM, RFA)
D Ryan Graves ($3.167MM, UFA)
F Andreas Johnsson ($3.4MM, UFA)
F Janne Kuokkanen ($1.85MM, RFA)
F Michael McLeod ($975K, RFA)
D Damon Severson ($4.167MM, UFA)
D Jonas Siegenthaler ($1.125MM, RFA)
F Yegor Sharangovich ($2MM, RFA)
F Tomas Tatar ($4.5MM, UFA)

Tatar was one of the more intriguing unrestricted free agents in the 2021 class.  His production dipped a bit after two strong seasons with Montreal but what really worked against him was being a healthy scratch for most of their playoff run.  That certainly hurt his value although he still managed to land a decent price tag, albeit not at the type of term he was hoping to command.  If he can help elevate the production in the top six though, he’ll have a chance to land a similar contract two years from now.  Johnsson was acquired as a cap dump from Toronto but didn’t come close to matching the production he had with the Maple Leafs.  That contract will be difficult to move unless he rebounds.

Sharangovich had a nice rookie season buoyed by a good half-season in the KHL before the NHL season got underway.  As long as he stays in their top six, he should be able to produce enough to warrant a raise on his $2.05MM qualifying offer while he’ll have arbitration rights at that time.  Is he a long-term piece for them?  They’ll find out over the next two years.  Kuokkanen didn’t look out of place in a middle-six role last season, his first taste of regular NHL action.  The price tag is a little high given his limited NHL experience but if he even stays on the third line, they’ll get a good return on it.  His qualifier is at $1.95MM with arbitration rights in 2023.  McLeod, a 2016 first-rounder, has had a slower development path but is now waiver-eligible, helping him secure a spot.  He’ll have time to establish himself as a legitimate full-time NHL player and will need to do so if he wants to get more than his $1MM qualifier.

Severson has been miscast in a top-pairing role over the last few years so it will be interesting to see how he fares on the second pairing which is where he’s more suited to be.  His contract has been a bargain considering the role and ice time he has played but now in a more optimal spot on the depth chart, he could stand out a bit more which would certainly improve his fortunes heading into free agency in 2023 where he’s already looking at a raise.  Graves joins New Jersey after Colorado decided they needed to move him out for expansion considerations and he should add a stabilizing presence on the back end.  If he holds down a spot in their top four as expected, he should be looking at a small raise at a minimum on his next deal.  Siegenthaler hasn’t had an extended NHL look but should get one over the next couple of years.  If he’s more of a depth player than an impact one, he shouldn’t get much more than this on his next contract.

Last season was a tough one for Blackwood as he was thrust into the undisputed starting role with Corey Crawford retiring at the beginning of training camp.  A bout with COVID-19 didn’t help things as he struggled upon his return.  He is viewed as their long-term starter but has some work to do to earn the big money contract that number one netminders get.  Bernier was brought in this summer in the role that Crawford was supposed to fill – serve as a mentor to Blackwood while pushing for playing time.  It’s an above-market contract for that role but they have more than enough cap room to pay the extra cost to get the player that the wanted.

Three Years Remaining

No players have expiring contracts following the 2023-24 season.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Islanders

at CDT | by 6 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Islanders

Current Cap Hit: $85,229,188 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Noah Dobson (one year, $894K)
F Oliver Wahlstrom (two years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses
Dobson: $537.5K
Wahlstrom: $537.5K
Total: $1.075MM

Wahlstrom managed to play in 44 regular season games in his rookie campaign despite a whopping 26 assignments to the taxi squad last season.  He established himself as a capable secondary scorer and didn’t look out of place in his first taste of playoff action either.  Wahlstrom should have a similar role this season if he can overcome a quiet training camp and with New York’s cap situation, it’s unlikely that he will get a long-term deal and unless he cracks the top six, he may be in tough to earn much on the bonus front.  A bridge deal that buys them short-term flexibility is expected.

The same can be said for Dobson who was a regular for most of his sophomore year.  He is improving but is still likely to be more of a depth player than a core piece in 2021-22 which makes it unlikely that he’d be able to command the type of money to justify a long-term contract or hit most of those bonuses.  He’ll be bridged as well.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Sebastian Aho ($725K, RFA)
D Johnny Boychuk ($6MM, UFA)
D Zdeno Chara (terms undisclosed, UFA)
F Cal Clutterbuck ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Andy Greene ($750K, UFA)
D Thomas Hickey ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Ross Johnston ($1MM, UFA)
F Leo Komarov ($3MM, UFA)
F Zach Parise (terms undisclosed, UFA)
D Ryan Pulock ($5MM, UFA)
G Cory Schneider (terms undisclosed, UFA)

Potential Bonuses
Greene: $250K

Let’s start with Chara and Parise.  Islanders GM Lou Lamoriello has been quite secretive in contract disclosures so the full terms haven’t come out yet.  The expectation is that they’re for the minimum of $750K with some performance bonuses but that hasn’t been confirmed.  Schneider’s deal is also unknown but he played for the minimum last season on their taxi squad so it’s likely he signed for that as well.  He may not play much – if at all – for the Isles this season but with Ilya Sorokin being waiver-exempt, sending him down and recalling Schneider to dip below their LTIR ACSL is a move we might see at times this season.

Clutterbuck has been a fan favorite for years and is an effective energy forward but for the role he plays, it’s a price tag that’s well above market value.  His salary is down to $2.5MM and it wouldn’t be surprising if they try to sign him for a bit below that on a multi-year deal for next season.  Komarov was brought in to play a similar role as Clutterbuck but hasn’t had anywhere near as much success.  Something closer to the $1MM mark is likely when he hits the open market.  Johnston has had a very limited role as one of the few remaining ‘enforcers’ in the league.  He’s not that far off the minimum salary but he’ll be hard-pressed to command more than that in free agency.

Pulock was a victim of their cap situation as they weren’t able to afford to sign him long term.  That walks the 27-year-old to the open market in the prime of his career (barring an extension, of course).  He’d be a legitimate second defenseman on a lot of teams and that will create a strong market for his services where he could tack another couple million onto his current price.  Hickey will once again be buried in the minors, clearing $1.125MM off their books and he won’t see a contract near that amount again.  Greene will serve as a depth player and all of those bonuses will be hit if he plays in 20 games.  Assuming he stays healthy, that should happen.  Boychuk will be on LTIR once again as his playing days are over and that is how the Isles will get back into cap compliance.

Two Years Remaining

F Mathew Barzal ($7MM, RFA)
D Scott Mayfield ($1.45MM, UFA)
F Richard Panik ($1.375MM, UFA)*
G Semyon Varlamov ($5MM, UFA)

*-Detroit is retaining another $1.375MM of Panik’s contract

Barzal was also basically forced into a bridge deal, albeit the richest of its kind (at the time) since the Islanders didn’t have the cap room to pay him more than this at the time.  He is their top center although his offensive production hasn’t been able to get back to his rookie-season level.  He’s subject to the new qualifying offer rules so he’s looking at an offer of $8.4MM (120% of the AAV is lower than his final-season salary) with a long-term pact that buys out UFA years checking in a bit above that.  Panik was brought in as a money balancer in the Nick Leddy trade.  He’s likely to be a role player (if he makes the team at all; he could be a cap casualty) and it’s likely that his next deal will be closer to the $1MM mark.

Mayfield’s five-year, $7.25MM contract was a head-scratcher at the time considering he didn’t have a lot of experience but he opted for security and he has become quite the bargain for New York, playing his way into their top four for the price of a sixth defender.  That should change on his next contract where he should be able to double his current price tag.

Varlamov was signed to be the starter between the pipes but Sorokin’s presence has changed that fairly quickly.  With Sorokin being the goalie of the future, Varlamov is likely to be in a platoon role at best.  He’s well above average in that role but it is a bit of an overpayment if he winds up in the 35-40-game range.

Three Years Remaining

F Josh Bailey ($5MM, UFA)
F Anthony Beauvillier ($4.15MM, UFA)
F Matt Martin ($1.5MM, UFA)
G Ilya Sorokin ($4MM, UFA)

Bailey hasn’t been able to hover near the point per game mark like he did in 2017-18 but he remains a capable top-six winger and at that price tag, the Isles are getting a pretty good return.  He’ll be 35 in the first season of his next contract though which will limit his earnings upside three years from now.  Beauvillier’s development has been slow and while he has shown flashes of top-end skill, the production hasn’t been there.  This deal basically amounts to a second bridge contract and puts him in a spot to hit unrestricted free agency in his prime but he’ll need to establish himself as a consistent second liner if he wants to land a sizable raise at that time.  Martin doesn’t put up many points anymore but provides plenty of physicality.  His deal is likely close to what they’d like to do for Clutterbuck next summer while Martin will probably need to take another cut if he wants to re-sign when this deal is up.

Sorokin is someone that the Islanders had to wait a long time for before he came to North America and even after his rookie deal, he still hasn’t had a chance to prove much as he only played in 22 games last season.  Still, New York committed a relatively hefty contract for someone with that little experience but it’s also a sign of how much they believe he’s their long-term goalie of the future.  This deal gives him a chance to work his way into the number one role with Varlamov still in the fold while giving him an opportunity to earn a much bigger payday three years from now at a time where the Upper Limit should be starting to go up again.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Rangers

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Rangers

Current Cap Hit: $72,103,969 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Morgan Barron (two years, $925K)
F Adam Fox (one year, $925K)
F Kaapo Kakko (one year, $925K)
F Vitali Kravtsov (one year, $925K)
F Alexis Lafreniere (one year, $925K)
D Nils Lundkvist (three years, $925K)
D K’Andre Miller (two years, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Barron: $850K
Fox: $850K
Kakko: $2.65MM
Kravtsov: $850K
Lafreniere: $2.85MM
Lundkvist: $850K
Miller: $350K
Total: $9.25MM

Kakko’s first two seasons haven’t gone particularly well as he hasn’t been able to produce with much consistency.  That can certainly change but at this point, a shorter-term second contract seems likelier than a long-term pact while the bulk of those bonuses won’t be met.  Lafreniere’s rookie campaign was similar to Kakko’s and he is one of New York’s big wild cards heading into this season.  A strong sophomore year could put him in position to meet most of his ‘A’ bonuses at least, totaling $850K though the ‘B’ bonuses remain unlikely.  Kravtsov had a good season in the KHL but was relatively quiet in his first taste of NHL action.  Now only a year away from his second contract, a bridge deal should be forthcoming.  Barron may wind up also seeing action in AHL Hartford but if he winds up being a regular, he’s likely not going to be able to hit most of his ‘A’ bonuses.

Fox, the Norris Trophy winner, is on quite the bargain of a contract.  His sophomore season was a dominant one and it’s safe to say he’ll be using some of the recent contracts for Dallas’ Miro Heiskanen (eight years, $8.45MM AAV) and Colorado’s Cale Makar (six years, $9MM AAV) as comparables.  As long as he stays healthy, he should hit all of his ‘A’ bonuses.  Miller is likely to have a similar role on New York’s back end this season which should give him a shot at two or three of his ‘A’ bonuses while setting him up for a nice second contract though nowhere near what Fox’s will be.  Lundkvist is expected to contend for a regular role but if they ease him in, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to hit most of his bonuses.

There’s more emphasis on bonuses here than usual for a reason.  While the Rangers are more than $9MM under the cap, that doesn’t factor in bonuses.  Knowing that several million of those bonuses are likely to be hit, their effective cap space is lower unless they want to face an overage penalty in 2022-23 which would not be a wise idea if it can be avoided.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Sammy Blais ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Julien Gauthier ($775K, RFA)
G Alexandar Georgiev ($2.425MM, RFA)
D Libor Hajek ($874K, RFA)
F Ryan Strome ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Mika Zibanejad ($5.35MM, UFA)

All eyes are on Zibanejad as what happens with him will greatly affect their plans moving forward.  If they lock him up to a long-term extension which could cost upwards of $10MM based on his current asking price, it’s going to take them out of the mix for adding down the middle.  On the flip side, if they don’t re-sign the 28-year-old, they’ll be entering next summer with a significant void down the middle to try to fill if they aren’t able to trade for a certain Buffalo center by then.  For the time being, Zibanejad is a number one pivot that’s being paid like a number two center which is a great bargain for the Rangers but that is going to change before next season one way or the other.

New York reportedly gave consideration to non-tendering Strome in the 2020 offseason before signing him to this deal and he responded with a career year.  Part of that is playing with a top winger but another showing like that will give him a lot more leverage than he’s accustomed to having as he enters the UFA market for the first time.  Blais was brought in to give the team some more grit but he will need to produce more offensively if he wants to get much more than his $1.6MM qualifying offer.  Gauthier managed to earn a spot on the fourth line for a good chunk of last season but will need to bring something offensively to the table.  He has produced at the lower levels but two goals in 47 career games isn’t going to help his cause for a new deal.

Georgiev has seen his save percentage dip each season which is never a good sign while he is now firmly entrenched as the backup.  His $2.65MM qualifying offer may be a bit high for what they’ll be able to afford next season so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in trade speculation again.  With the going rate for a good backup, Georgiev’s next deal should come in only a bit higher than his qualifier unless he has a big platform year.

Two Years Remaining

F Filip Chytil ($2.3MM, RFA)
F Ryan Reaves ($1.75MM, UFA)
D Jarred Tinordi ($900K, UFA)

The Rangers drafted Chytil hoping that he would eventually fill a role down the middle.  That could still happen but so far, he has primarily been on the wing while his production has largely been limited so far.  Still just 22, that could change between now and 2023 where he’ll be owed a $2.6MM qualifying offer.  He’ll need to improve his offensive output to have a shot at earning a bigger raise beyond his qualifier.  Reaves is high-paid for the limited minutes he plays but players like him are always in demand.  He’ll be 36 when his one-year extension is up and at that point, it seems unlikely that he’ll be looking at a raise.

Tinordi has taken a long time to get to the NHL but a good showing in the second half of last season allowed him to land a two-year, one-way commitment on the open market.  If he can hold down a regular spot on the third pairing each season, he’ll have a shot at a bigger deal in 2023 but if he winds up being more of a depth player as he typically has been, this is about as high as his salary will get.

Three Years Remaining

D Ryan Lindgren ($3MM, RFA)
D Patrik Nemeth ($2.5MM, UFA)

Lindgren moved into a regular top-four role for the first time last season and handled the extra responsibility well, earning him this three-year bridge deal that allows both sides to reassess before he gets to the open market.  Owed a $3.6MM qualifying offer (120% of the AAV is lower than the final-year salary), Lindgren will need to do more at the offensive end if he wants to get more than that.  Stay-at-home defenders can provide value still but at a lower price point than more offensive counterparts.  Nemeth is a good example of that.  He was in Detroit’s top four for most of the last two seasons (plus a short stint on Colorado’s third pairing) but while he’s steady in his own end, his market value is capped by a lack of production.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Ottawa Senators

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Ottawa Senators

Current Cap Hit: $59,048,333 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit and minimum cap threshold)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Erik Brannstrom (one year, $863K)
F Alex Formenton (one year, $748K)
F Joshua Norris (one year, $925K)
F Shane Pinto (two years, $925K)
F Tim Stutzle (two years, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Brannstrom: $450K
Formenton: $107.5K
Norris: $850K
Pinto: $600K
Stutzle: $2.5MM
Total: $4.508MM

Norris is going to be the next big contract on the horizon for the Senators.  He was one of the top rookies in the league last season and should spend all of the upcoming season in a top-six role at the very least.  Impact centers get paid quickly and if they move to sign him to a long-term deal, he could jump into the $7MM range assuming he has a strong sophomore season.  Stutzle, another long-term building block, had some ups and downs in his rookie campaign but the high-end potential is certainly there.  If he progresses as expected, he could also be looking at a similar price tag on his next deal.  Pinto certainly didn’t look out of place late in the season and should see extended NHL action this year.  How he fares in that should determine if he’s heading for a long-term deal of his own or something shorter.  As for Formenton, the speedster split last season between Ottawa and AHL Belleville.  He should be able to lock down more of a regular spot in 2021-22 but is likely heading for a short-term second contract.

Brannstrom was the centerpiece of the Mark Stone trade back in 2019 although he hasn’t yet been able to lock down a full-time NHL role let alone show signs of the offensive upside he has displayed in the minors.  He should push for a regular spot this season but he’s also waiver-exempt which could make him the odd one out in training camp.  In either scenario, a bridge deal makes more sense for him.  Considering the bigger contracts they have on the horizon for Norris and Stutzle, they’ll need some shorter-term deals to balance those out anyway.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Josh Brown ($1.2MM, UFA)
G Anton Forsberg ($900K, UFA)
D Nick Holden ($1.7MM, UFA)
D Victor Mete ($1.2MM, RFA)
F Nick Paul ($1.35MM, UFA)
F Zach Sanford ($2MM, UFA)
F Chris Tierney ($3.5MM, UFA)

Tierney has been in trade speculation dating back to last season and that won’t change anytime soon as he’s unlikely to be in Ottawa’s long-term plans.  He’s a serviceable middle-six center who is probably better off on the third line but players like that have landed similar contracts to the one he has recently.  A big raise is unlikely but neither is a big dip this summer.  Sanford, acquired in the Logan Brown trade, has been a capable bottom-six winger but unless he has an uptick in production with his new team, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to get much more than his current price tag on the open market.  Paul hasn’t been able to make the most of his increased playing time the last couple of years but as a physical player that can play both the wing and down the middle, he’s someone that’s probably going to garner a fair bit of interest which could push his next AAV past the $2MM range.

Holden was acquired as a salary offset in the Evgenii Dadonov trade this summer and is likely to have a similarly limited role with the Senators as he did with the Golden Knights.  Barring a surprisingly strong season, he’s someone that is more of a candidate to land a PTO than a raise.  Brown also is expected to play a depth role which doesn’t bode well for his first chance in unrestricted free agency.  That said, he’ll only be 28 next summer so he should be able to land a guaranteed deal but at this point, it probably won’t be more than this one.  Mete impressed after coming over from Montreal on waivers and will be looking to earn a top-four role for the first time since his rookie season.  That will determine if he can potentially double his AAV in that situation or whether he’ll be a non-tender candidate with him having arbitration eligibility again.

Forsberg was claimed off waivers three times last season but held his own when called upon down the stretch with Ottawa, earning this new deal.  If he can establish himself as a quality backup, he could double his price tag or more but having been more of a third-stringer in his career, the likelier scenario is that he winds up in a similar spot next season which would come with a bit of a dip in pay.

Two Years Remaining

F Connor Brown ($3.6MM, UFA)
D Michael Del Zotto ($2MM, UFA)
F Austin Watson ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Artem Zub ($2.5MM, UFA)

Brown’s offensive output has increased with Ottawa as he has been used in a bigger role than he was with Toronto but it hasn’t come at the expense of his defensive play.  All of a sudden, he has become a strong two-way player.  His ice time may dip as younger players move up the depth chart but for the time being, his deal is a nice bargain and the longer he plays at that level, the more expensive he’s going to be two summers from now.  Watson makes perhaps a bit much for someone that’s primarily on the fourth line but it certainly isn’t a big overpayment and with the cap space they have, it’s one that they can certainly afford.  It’s hard to see him getting more on his next deal, however.

Zub had to wait a bit to get into the lineup but when he did, he quickly became an important part of their back end which earned him this two-year extension.  Given that he only has 47 career NHL games under his belt, pegging his value on his next contract will be tough; it’ll go up if he can stay in the top four but if he winds up settling in as more of a third-pairing option, he might be in tough to land a raise.  Del Zotto’s contract came as a surprise to many for someone that has had to settle for discount deals the last two seasons but the Sens believe he can be a capable veteran to hold down a spot while their prospects develop.  He’ll be 33 when his next deal gets signed and it’s hard to imagine he’ll get more than this.

Three Years Remaining

G Matt Murray ($6.25MM, UFA)

When Ottawa acquired Murray early on the second day of the 2020 NHL Entry Draft, they were hoping that they found not only their goalie of the present but also potentially their goalie of the future.  But things didn’t go swimmingly for him as he followed up the lowest save percentage of his career with an even lower one in his first year with Ottawa.  Yes, the Senators weren’t a great team but his struggles certainly contributed to that.  In terms of AAV, only five goalies have a higher one than Murray but so far, he hasn’t provided an adequate level of goaltending let alone a high-end showing for someone making more than most starters do.

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PHR Mailbag: Rangers, Lightning, Predictions, Bruins, Bounce Back Candidates, Penguins, PTOs

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the Rangers and their long-term center situation, some candidates to step up for the Lightning this season, players that have a shot at having their tryouts converted to an NHL contract, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

jchancel: If the NYR are going to sign Zibanejad long term, what salaries do they move if they want to sign a front-line center? Personally, I’d like to see who they could possibly get that would play better with Panarin than Strome has. I know his faceoff % and defensive abilities aren’t the best, but he plays a very adequate game feeding Panarin.

Stop the Eichel nonsense!!! Crazy to overpay for damaged goods. If he’s gettable for two returns and a draft pick maybe. But not all your youth!!

I don’t see a scenario where they can afford to give Mika Zibanejad the long-term contract he’s seeking and still try to bring in a number one center.  With Artemi Panarin not going anywhere and their young core heading for pricier deals in a hurry – headlined by Adam Fox next summer – they’re not going to be able to carry two high-priced pivots on their roster.  If they were absolutely adamant about trying to add another impact center (perhaps a high-end second option), Chris Kreider feels like the one that they’d try to move.  His contract probably won’t age well and with the young wingers they have coming, he could be pushed down the depth chart in a hurry.

I understand the temptation to try to upgrade on Ryan Strome given his track record but at some point, he deserves some credit at least.  Yes, he plays well with Panarin but it shouldn’t necessarily be taken for granted that whichever potential upgrade they try to get will have similar chemistry.  It could be better but it could be worse.  I’m not necessarily advocating that they keep him but at the frequency he’s thrown into trade suggestions, it should at least be said that he has had the best two seasons of his career in the last two years.  That should count for something.

Eichel’s trade value is dipping right now but I don’t see Buffalo accepting that low of a return for him at this point.  With the Sabres not trying to compete, I think they’re perfectly content dragging this out a little while longer.

denny816: If the Rangers do not see a considerable jump in production from Kaapo Kakko (assuming he is given an increased role for the upcoming season), could you see Drury dangling him and one of their plethora of young defense prospects to fill the hole they have at center?

That would certainly make sense in theory but at the same time, if Kakko doesn’t have a big jump in production, how much does his trade value drop?  I wouldn’t want to put him into ‘bust’ territory but there’s no doubt it would make it harder for him to be the centerpiece of such a move.  If they had any inclination of trying to move Kakko for a center, it may make more sense to try to do it now.  There’s some risk in that Kakko breaks out elsewhere but if he landed a promising young, cost-controllable pivot, it could be worth doing sooner than later.

The Captain 11: The NYR are in a no-win situation with the center position right now. Both Zibanejad and Strome are UFA after this season. They have no internal options to replace them and it doesn’t look like there are upgrades available in the 2022 UFA market. Are there any possible RFA’s ripe for an offer sheet possibly?

Do the NYR overpay both Zibanejad and Strome in both money and term or do they trade one or both to not risk losing them for nothing? With Dolan mandating making the playoffs (or something close to that), it seems like the latter is off the table. A true no-win situation for Drury. I don’t see Chytil as a center moving forward even though Drury recently said he does see it. Barron might make a good 3C one day but prob needs more seasoning and some time before being ready. Most people have them both as better suited to wing.

Also, is it me or do the NYR seem to have an organizational aversion to drafting and developing centers? Very few really good centers have been drafted as they tend to get them through trade and free agency.

And, does Gallant finally break up the trio of pairs? Kreider/Zibanejad, Strome/Panarin, Kakko/Chytil. Should they name Kreider captain, would it be a smart move to slide him to the 3rd line and ease that burden on him a bit while simultaneously giving Laffy a good look on the top line?

Let’s stick with the Rangers for one more set of questions.  If you’re looking for a proven option, an offer sheet probably isn’t the best route to try to go.  Even if they find an impact center they like, how much will it cost to get them to sign and get the team to walk away?  Carolina more than doubled Jesperi Kotkaniemi’s value and even then, it was far from a guarantee that Montreal wouldn’t match.  Let’s say there’s a center worth $6MM in the RFA class that is willing to sign an offer sheet, they’re going to have to offer substantially more than that to get the team to walk away.  That’s more cap space and draft picks down the drain and if you’re going upwards of $8MM to $9MM, wouldn’t they be better off just keeping Zibanejad?

I don’t see Zibanejad being moved in-season (I think he re-signs) and if the Rangers are in the mix, I don’t think Strome moves either.  There’s always risk to that approach but it’s hard to see them voluntarily weakening their playoff fortunes to add a pick or a prospect.

I don’t think the Rangers have an aversion to drafting centers.  Chytil and Lias Andersson were both drafted as first-round centers and that was just in 2017.  Kakko and Lafreniere are wingers, sure, but they were the consensus top options where they were picked; reaching for a center wouldn’t have made sense.  In between that, they added a pair of decent winger prospects and a pretty good defenseman in K’Andre Miller.  Sometimes, sticking with BPA over positional need pays off in terms of stockpiling assets.  Now, they’ll have to develop those into trade chips to fill the need unless Chytil is able to establish himself there.

Line combos are meant to be shuffled around so sure, Gallant will probably split them up at points, especially in training camp.  Kreider will be on the third line down the road but if they want to keep his value high (if they have eyes on trading him for cap flexibility purposes), moving him down would make that hard.  That would also take the captaincy off the table.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Zibanejad is named captain if they get an extension worked out before the season starts.

Jack10: Which prospect(s) from the defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning will have the biggest impact, if any after their free agent signings, during the upcoming season in which they have lost their entire 3rd line from their back-to-back championships?

I mentioned him in a recent mailbag but I’ll go again with Alex Barre-Boulet here.  He produced at a high-end rate in junior.  He went to the minors and produced at a high-end rate in both of his full seasons while averaging more than a point per game in limited action last year.  His NHL numbers don’t stand out – three goals in 15 games – but it was his first taste of NHL action.  He’s someone I see having a limited role to start but working his way up into an important secondary scoring role before too long.

He’s slightly more proven but I’ll also add Mathieu Joseph to the mix.  He may not be a true prospect but he’s only a few months older than Barre-Boulet.  He has had a limited role so far in his career but he’s someone who should play higher in the lineup now.  He has produced in the past and if he does this season, he’ll be a very interesting restricted free agent next summer with salary arbitration rights.

The Duke: Let’s once again dust off the Mailbag’s Crystal Ball, which sees all & knows all: 1. Fastest path to – and most scoring success in – a top-six role between Newhook, Krebs, Veleno & Tomasino? 2. Brightest scoring future between Eklund, Raymond & Holtz? And lastly 3. the top three scoring forwards in NJ’s next 3-4 years? As always, much thanks.

1) The fastest path should be Nashville’s Philip Tomasino as there’s a very good chance he’ll be in that role this season.  The Predators didn’t exactly add up front this summer with an eye on giving some youngsters like him and Eeli Tolvanen a chance to step up.  Alex Newhook will get there at some point but it won’t be this season.  Peyton Krebs will need some time in the minors and Joseph Veleno I suspect will be more of a high-end third liner than a top-six guy.  Long term, Newhook might have the best path to success if he eventually ascends to the 2C role in Colorado but for the upcoming season, Tomasino should have the most points.

2) If we go strictly with SHL success, it’d be William Eklund who had a nice showing with Djurgardens last season where he was a teammate of Alexander Holtz.  But I’ll take Lucas Raymond, who is going to be a focal point of Detroit’s rebuild that will eventually come to an end, to slightly outscore the others.  All three should be impact players before too long though.

3) I expect Jack Hughes to continue to develop offensively so he’ll certainly be in that mix.  So, too, should Nico Hischier.  Holtz won’t play enough to have a shot at that and I don’t see many high-scoring forwards coming out of the rest of their group.  I’d like to take Dougie Hamilton as I think he’ll out-produce the rest of their forwards over that stretch but he’s a defenseman.  I’m not sold on Yegor Sharangovich being a key long-term piece for them but he’ll be around long enough to get an honest look so I’ll give him the slight edge for the third forward slot.

ericl: If the Bruins struggle to find a center who plays well with Hall, who are some centers that could be available as the trade deadline approaches that could be possible trade targets?

Max Domi would be one but I touched on that scenario earlier this month already so I won’t get into that one here.  I suspect the target would be a rental with an eye on extending the right fit which is basically what they did with Taylor Hall.  A lot will depend on where teams are at the deadline as to whether they’re selling or not so keep in mind that these names could wind up not being available midseason.

I’d look at someone like Joe Pavelski as a primary target if the Stars aren’t in the playoff race.  Dallas would need to retain and Boston would still need to send a salary offset but if they’re making one last run with this core and their internal options can’t get the job done, I would be surprised if he wasn’t Plan ‘A’.

Ryan Strome’s future with the Rangers is in question and if they’re not in the mix, he’s someone that could move.  He’s another question mark but his price tag would be more affordable.  Paul Stastny would be a good fit if Winnipeg is out of contention and now that his AAV is lower, Ryan Getzlaf is more palatable at the deadline as well.  I doubt all of these players will be available but if they’re thinking about a possible rental player already, these players could very well be on the list.

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Philadelphia Flyers

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Philadelphia Flyers

Current Cap Hit: $81,118,523 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Wade Allison (one year, $925K)
F Joel Farabee (one year, $925K)
F Morgan Frost (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Allison: $425K
Farabee: $600K
Total: $1.025MM

Farabee’s second season was a good one as he earned an extension that we’ll look at closer to the end of this article.  For the upcoming season, those performance bonuses could be met with a similar showing so either the Flyers will need to leave themselves some wiggle room at the end of the season or face a reduced cap for the overage next year.  Frost was limited to just two games last season due to injury so he may see some AHL time but should be a regular before too long.  With his limited production and game action so far, he’s a strong candidate for a short-term deal.  If Allison lands a full-time spot, the ‘A’ bonuses in his deal could be achievable but if he bounces back and forth between the Flyers and Phantoms, those shouldn’t be an issue and, like Frost, he’s likely to get a short-term second contract.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Nicolas Aube-Kubel ($1.075MM, RFA)
D Justin Braun ($1.8MM, UFA)
F Derick Brassard ($825K, UFA)
F Claude Giroux ($8.275MM, UFA)
G Martin Jones ($2MM, UFA)
D/F Samuel Morin ($750K, RFA)
D Rasmus Ristolainen ($5.4MM, UFA)
F Nate Thompson ($800K, UFA)
D Keith Yandle ($900K, UFA)

Giroux, Philadelphia’s captain, has been a fixture in their lineup for the past 13 seasons.  However, his production is starting to tail off and it has already been stated that he won’t sign an in-season deal.  His next contract could very well be his last, especially if it’s a four-year pact or longer and it seems like a lot will be riding on how things go this season.  Either way, his next deal should come in a couple million cheaper than this one.  Aube-Kubel, as a role player, shouldn’t be commanding much more than his qualifying offer of $1.225MM unless his production ticks up this season.  Brassard has seen his value dip in recent years to the point where he has had to settle for what feels like a below-market contract based on his production for the second year in a row.  This seems to be his new baseline deal moving forward.  Thompson is a capable veteran depth piece that can win faceoffs.  There is always a market for those players but it typically is close to the minimum.

The Flyers paid a big price to add Ristolainen just before the draft to add what they hope will be an impact piece to their back end.  He has struggled with Buffalo as of late but still logs heavy minutes which will keep his earnings potential fairly high.  He’ll need to bounce back offensively to have a chance at landing a sizable raise on his next deal.  Braun doesn’t produce much but is a steady defensive player.  As he ages, it’s hard to see him landing a pricier contract next year but he could come close to his current rate.  Yandle signed for cheap after being bought out by Florida and is looking to restore some value.  However, he’ll be 36 for 2022-23 and will likely have to go year to year.  An incentive-laden contract for that season would make a lot of sense for him.  Morin served as a depth option both up front and on the back end last year and shouldn’t be able to command much more than that unless he locks down a regular role defensively.  The recent report that he has sustained another significant knee injury will make that quite difficult to accomplish.

Jones has not played well lately which led to the Sharks paying him a lot of money ($10MM over six years) to no longer play for them.  When he’s on, he’s capable of pushing for closer to a 50/50 share of starts and that would certainly help his case for free agency next summer.  At 31, a good showing could land him a multi-year commitment.

Two Years Remaining

F Oskar Lindblom ($3MM, RFA)
D Travis Sanheim ($4.765MM, UFA)
F James van Riemsdyk ($7MM, UFA)

The second stint in Philadelphia hasn’t gone as well for van Riemsdyk.  He’s still fairly productive – he tied for the team lead in points last season – but he’s more of a supporting player being paid like a front-liner.  It’s not a massive overpayment but his deal has definitely become an above-market one and he will be facing a cut two summers from now.  Lindblom’s first full season back from cancer was a quiet one.  Similar showings would make him a non-tender candidate but he still has time to turn his fortunes around.

The Flyers were one of two teams to take a restricted free agent to arbitration this offseason as they did so with Sanheim.  That guaranteed that they’d get a contract in place before training camp but it also gave Sanheim more leverage as he could have elected to take a two-year deal from an arbitrator to get to free agency early.  They didn’t go to arbitration but he still got the two-year pact and the quick trip to the open market.  He’s coming off a down season but if he can get back to his production from two years ago, he could be looking at a substantial jump in pay on a long-term deal based on what the defensive market was this year.

Three Years Remaining

G Carter Hart ($3.979MM, RFA)

Hart had a year to forget but his first two were strong enough to give him what was still a pretty strong second contract.  He has the potential to be a high-end starter and if that happens, he could come close to doubling that on his next deal.  The qualifying offer here is $4.479MM so if Hart doesn’t bounce back or is more of a 1B netminder, that could be a bit too rich for them at that time.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Cam Atkinson ($5.875MM through 2024-25)
F Sean Couturier ($4.333MM in 2021-22, $7.775MM from 2022-23 through 2029-30)
D Ryan Ellis ($6.25MM through 2026-27)
F Joel Farabee ($5MM from 2022-23 through 2027-28)
F Kevin Hayes ($7.143MM through 2025-26)
F Travis Konecny ($5.5MM through 2024-25)
F Scott Laughton ($3MM through 2024-25)
D Ivan Provorov ($6.75MM through 2024-25)

Couturier isn’t going to win any scoring titles but he’s a premier two-way center in this league and would have landed that price tag on the open market.  The last couple of years could be a bit pricey but in the short term, they shouldn’t have any issues with that deal.  Hayes, like van Riemsdyk, has been productive but is a bit overpaid relative to the role he fills which is more of a complementary one than a top one.  That could be an issue down the road.  Atkinson is making high-end second-line money and as long as he plays and produces like a top-six forward – there’s little reason to think he won’t – they’ll get a good return on this deal.  Farabee’s deal carries some risk given that he has just 107 career games under his belt but he’s already trending towards being a long-term top-six piece and $5MM for that is pretty good value.  Konecny is making market value for a second liner and that’s basically the role he fills even though he is coming off a bit of a disappointing season.  Laughton opted for some security at the trade deadline when he signed this extension.  Good third-line centers have made more than that in free agency and he’s at least a capable third liner so there shouldn’t be too many issues with this one other than the term may be a little longer than they’d probably have preferred.

Provorov may not be a true number one defenseman but that’s the role he fills on the Flyers.  He’s in the prime of his career and is making a lot less than a typical number one defender gets.  As a number two, he is making market value and if they keep relying on him as their top blueliner, it becomes a below-market contract.  Ellis was their biggest acquisition on the back end, coming over from Nashville.  He should take some of the pressure off Provorov and will be a key cog offensively.  As long as he plays in their top two, they’ll get a good return on this deal.

Buyouts

G Ilya Bryzgalov ($1.643MM through 2026-27, $0 cap hit as it was a cap-exempt buyout)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Couturier (current contract, not next year’s extension)
Worst Value: Hayes

Looking Ahead

The Flyers project to be tight to the salary cap all season long and will need to be healthy to bank enough space to add an impact player at the deadline.  Looking ahead to next summer, with nearly $66M in commitments already, keeping both Giroux and Ristolainen and having enough space to fill out the rest of their roster could be a bit difficult.

Long term, Philadelphia has over $47MM in commitments for 2024-25 already which is near the top of the league in that regard; that number will certainly go up if Giroux and/or Ristolainen re-sign while Hart will be in line for a new deal at that point as well.  The odds of them being able to add another core piece will be low as a result with the cap not expected to go up much between now and then.  The long-term core is pretty much in place already and any changes will need to come on the trade front.  GM Chuck Fletcher has already shown an ability to make core-changing trades based on his moves this summer and more could be coming down the road if this team is unable to get into contention.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag: Maple Leafs, Olympics, Flyers, Panthers, Surprises, Futa, Kings, TV, Penguins

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Toronto’s playoff potential, Philadelphia’s summer shuffle and goaltending situation, predictions for some surprises this season, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

jimmertee: Can the Leafs ever win in the playoffs with Matthews on the team and the core that’s getting paid so much money but don’t produce in the playoffs? How long do the Leafs stick with that core?

I think they can definitely win a round although that’s about as far as I’m willing to go this season; Tampa Bay is in their division after all and would be the likely favorite in what would be a second-round matchup.  They’ve come close enough in recent years and have done some things well; a good bounce here and there and they’d have won a series already.  So no, this core isn’t doomed to lose forever and they can definitely get over the proverbial hump.

There really isn’t an easy jumping-off point with this core, especially among their four high-priced forwards.  High-paid players are hard enough to move and getting top value for them will be even harder.  It’s not that those players aren’t any good but moving and matching money is going to be tough for a while.  The overall core group will weaken as the flattened salary cap ultimately prevents players from re-signing but I believe they’re locked into this team structure for a few more years yet.

wreckage: Do you see anyone declining an invite to play at the Olympics?

I’m assuming you’re asking on the political and public pressure fronts.  Lots can change as we get closer to February so this answer may not hold up in the end but I’m going to say no.  There hasn’t been a chance for an NHL player to participate in eight years so it’s going to be the first opportunity for many and the last chance for many others.  It’s hard to pass up on that.

There’s also the fact that the NHL isn’t overly enthusiastic about long-term participation in this event.  There’s a commitment to try for 2026 but after that, if they can rekindle and make money off the World Cup, they’re going to push for that so Olympic participation is hardly a guarantee.  With the opportunities being so infrequent, I just can’t see anyone declining for that reason.  Players will withdraw/decline due to injury but I think that will be the only reason.

Black Ace57: After a busy offseason, is this going to be the make-or-break year for the Flyers? At this point, if they can’t play up to expectations is there really any option but retooling for a year or two?

It sure feels like there’s a lot riding on this season, doesn’t it?  GM Chuck Fletcher has made several key changes to their roster with the additions of Cam Atkinson, Ryan Ellis, and Rasmus Ristolainen with the sole design of getting back to the playoffs and doing some damage when they get there.  If that doesn’t happen, changes are going to be made.

Claude Giroux is an unrestricted free agent next summer and he’s someone whose odds of returning will likely directly be tied to Philadelphia’s success.  Once James van Riemsdyk moves to being an expiring contract which happens next summer, he’s likelier to be gone as well.  Those two leaving would be another significant retooling.  We’ll see what happens with Ristolainen, another pending UFA, as well.

With the commitments they have on the books already – nearly $66MM in a dozen players per CapFriendly – a big overhaul seems less likely so while there could be a big name or two coming and going again, most of the core would stay intact so I like your classification of a retool instead of a rebuild in that situation.

Emoney123: Do the Flyers have a goalie problem? Hart is coming off a down year so should he be looking over his shoulder at Sandstrom, Ersson, Ustimenko, Ross, Tomek, and Fedotov? Is there a generational talent in there somewhere or just prospects hyped by the organization?

I’ll answer the second one first.  No, there isn’t a generational goalie in the pipeline.  I’m not even sure there’s an NHL starting goalie in there let alone a rare elite talent.  Samuel Ersson has some upside but he needs to do well in North America before calling him good enough to potentially push Carter Hart for playing time.

So, is that a problem?  I’m not ready to call it that yet.  I expect Hart to bounce back playing behind an improved defensive group and even if he isn’t a long-term star netminder, they’ll settle for someone that’s capable of being a decent starter.  He’s 23, signed for three years and under team control for four.  That’s a good foundation and finding a capable second goalie is certainly doable although I don’t think they necessarily landed one in Martin Jones who they’re also hoping will benefit behind a better defense.  If they have to reallocate some cap space to goaltending, they should be able to get a better backup to push Hart and, in the process, give them at a minimum a serviceable tandem.  If you have that, it’s not a problem.

In the meantime, adding a quality goalie prospect should be fairly high on the priority list.

YzerPlan19: Predictions for Bennett and Reinhart in Florida’s top six? Can Reinhart get 30 goals playing on Barkov’s wing? Did they bring him in to add more offense or does he slot in at 3C? Can Bennett exorcise his demons and continue on a point per game clip as 2C with Huberdeau?

I can’t see Florida paying a first-round pick and a pretty good goalie prospect in Devon Levi to have Sam Reinhart play on the third line.  He’s there to be an impact scorer and will be in their top six, potentially on the wing alongside Aleksander Barkov.  I think he’s absolutely capable of scoring 30 this season.  Very quietly, he scored at a 38-goal pace last season on a Buffalo team that was bereft of offense.  Put him in a more offensive-oriented environment while still being with a high-end center and 30 is definitely attainable.

Bennett, to me, is one of the biggest wildcards in the league.  I don’t think he’s going to be able to keep playing at a point-per-game pace as he did after the trade.  10 regular season games is a pretty small sample size as is five playoff contests.  But he absolutely can put up more than he was providing with Calgary.  If he had a 45-50-point season while being a capable center and playing with plenty of grit, I think they’d take that.  If he can hover closer to that point per game mark though, his contract will wind up being one of the better bargains in the league.

pawtucket: What are your top surprises in each division? Could be team, player, standings, whatever.

Atlantic: Will Butcher (Buffalo) gets back to being an impact offensive defenseman.  He was a bit better down the stretch in New Jersey but was still given away (with retention).  He’s not going to a winning environment but he will have a chance to play a bigger role and has the offensive skills to be a real weapon.  With his lowered price tag ($2.822MM after retention), he becomes one of the most sought-after rentals at the trade deadline.

Metropolitan: Columbus doesn’t bottom out and finish last in the division.  They’ve blown up their roster and at some point, one of their two pending UFA goalies is going to have to go as well.  The end result is a mishmash of players that are supposed to have the Blue Jackets contending for the top pick.  They’re not making the playoffs but they’ll be more competitive than many realize at and the end of the day, someone else is last in the Metro.

Central: Vladimir Tarasenko (St. Louis) is still with the Blues after the trade deadline.  There’s a mutual desire for a change of scenery and he has been in all sorts of trade speculation but they don’t want to give him away in case he bounces back.  Tarasenko produces close to a 20-goal level which still isn’t a good return on a $7.5MM AAV but it’s enough that they decide to hold onto him.  Many expect him to move – particularly since they need to re-sign Robert Thomas – but someone else becomes the cap casualty to make that happen.

Pacific: Nolan Patrick is this year’s Chandler Stephenson.  Stephenson’s trade to Vegas gave him a chance to play a bigger role and he certainly made the most of it.  Now, Patrick, freed somewhat from the expectations that come from being a second-overall pick, has a similar opportunity and puts up 35-40 points, giving the Golden Knights the center depth they’ve lacked lately.  He’s not going to be the number one that would make a huge difference but he’ll be a big part of their secondary core, not too shabby for a reclamation project.

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