Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

With the new year upon us, the NHL season is in full swing. Teams are jockeying for playoff position, and many players with expiring contracts across the NHL are playing games that could ultimately determine what type of payday they might receive in the summer.

In a multi-part series, we’ll take a look at each position group of the upcoming free agent class, and do a rundown on how those upcoming unrestricted free agents have performed this year. Which players have increased their odds of landing a massive contract? Which players have potentially hurt their earning potential with their play? We’ll break it all down here.

The Marquee Names

Frederik Andersen, Carolina Hurricanes

Andersen didn’t have the best platform year heading into his last trip to unrestricted free agency two years ago. The Danish netminder lost the starting role on the Toronto Maple Leafs to Jack Campbell, relinquishing a number-one slot he’d held tightly to for four straight seasons.

Andersen had posted a .909 save percentage in 2019-20, and had an .895 in his final year in Toronto, the first time in his professional career that his save percentage dropped below .900. Past the age of 30, he wasn’t nearly the type of sure-fire investment he had once seemed to be, and he settled for a relatively modest two-year $4.5MM AAV guarantee from the Carolina Hurricanes.

In his first year in Carolina, Andersen completely flipped the narrative surrounding his career trend. He was no longer a declining asset, he was now a two-time Jennings trophy winner who may have been a contender for the Vezina trophy had Igor Shesterkin not authored the most impressive season by a goaltender since Carey Price’s Hart Trophy-winning campaign.

In 52 games played Andersen went 35-14-3 with a 2.17 goals-against-average and a .922 save percentage. Although some might attribute such impressive success to the fact that the Hurricanes have one of the NHL’s best defenses, Andersen still ranked near the top of the league in goals saved above expected, meaning he was making more than just the saves any goalie would be expected to make.

This season, Andersen hasn’t had as much success thanks to an injury that’s knocked him out for quite a while. He has just a .903 save percentage in 10 games played, but that sample size isn’t large enough to make any larger claims about a decline from last season’s impressive form.

If Andersen hits the open market, he’ll do so in far better standing than he was two years ago, and his next contract is likely to reflect that.

Tristan Jarry, Pittsburgh Penguins

Like Andersen, Jarry was in a shaky place after the 2020-21 season. That year was his first as the unquestioned starter in Pittsburgh, and although he was impressive at times in the regular season, he lacked consistency.

In addition to that up-and-down regular season, Jarry made several significant mistakes in the Penguins’ playoff series against the New York Islanders, mistakes that were a major reason why the Islanders were able to eliminate Pittsburgh. As a result, there were serious questions as to whether the Penguins could afford to trust Jarry as the goaltender to carry them through the twilight years Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang’s careers.

Jarry has answered those questions resoundingly with his performance in these past two seasons, though. Last year he played 58 games and posted a .919 save percentage, a performance that earned him one Vezina Trophy vote.

An unfortunate late injury kept him from playing a major role in the Penguins’ brief playoff run, although one could certainly make the case that with a healthy Jarry, the Penguins would have likely prevailed over the Rangers. The Rangers took seven games to eliminate Pittsburgh, despite the Penguins being backstopped by third-stringer Louis Domingue for a significant portion of the series.

Had he not lost time due to injury, it’s possible Jarry would have shown the Penguins organization that his ability to play on hockey’s biggest stage wouldn’t be defined by the mistakes he made in the series against the Islanders. But the injury cost him that chance, although he will get another opportunity if the Penguins make the playoffs.

Jarry, who will turn 28 in April, is in a strong position heading into the expiry of his contract. A deep playoff run could potentially vault him above Andersen to the top of this free agent class.

The Solid Contributors

Cam Talbot, Ottawa Senators

Just a year ago, Talbot looked to have found a nice landing spot as a starter with the Minnesota Wild. Then the team acquired Vezina Trophy winner Marc-Andre Fleury, and, after an offseason saga not lacking in drama, Talbot was off to Ottawa.

With the Senators, Talbot has performed solidly, although perhaps not quite to the standard he set in Minnesota (or all the way back in 2016-17, when he was a workhorse starter for the Edmonton Oilers.) Talbot has posted a .906 save percentage in 24 games played, and has had some hot stretches and some games he’d likely want to have back.

For example, from December 10th to December 27th, Talbot went 5-1-1 with a .927 save percentage. Since that point, in his last four games, Talbot has gone 1-3 with an .854 save percentage. While judging a goalie by his hot and cold stretches is always going to yield a semblance of inconsistency, the reality is Talbot has not provided the Senators with the type of goaltending they’d need to emerge as a playoff contender.

Over the course of his full tenure so far in Ottawa, Talbot has been adequate, but nothing more. At 35 years old, the market for solid-if-unimpressive goaltenders isn’t known to be robust, so Talbot may not receive the type of deal he was lined up for just a year ago. But for a team looking to stabilize their situation in the crease and add an experienced veteran, Talbot is a highly respectable option.

Martin Jones, Seattle Kraken

Jones’ season isn’t the easiest to explain. His career path has been a bit of a rollercoaster, as he’s gone from promising young Sharks starter to underperforming salary cap anchor, to unexciting backup with the Philadelphia Flyers. Last summer, Jones signed a one-year deal with the Seattle Kraken after the team’s presumptive backup goalie, Chris Driedger, went down with a major injury.

Jones has taken the opportunity afforded to him in Seattle and run with it, seizing the role of number-one goalie from Philipp Grubauer. He’s played in 31 games to Grubauer’s 14, and has posted an extremely impressive 21-5-3 record, bolstered by back-to-back shutouts against Montreal and Boston.

But despite all that good news, Jones’ save percentage remains below .900. Whether that says more about Jones’ performance or the value of using save percentage as a be-all-end-all metric to evaluate goalie performance is for others to decide, but the fact remains that goalies posting below .900 save percentages aren’t typically hot commodities in free agency, especially when those goalies haven’t been above .900 in a half-decade.

That’s the battle Jones could be fighting if his numbers remain where they currently are, although given his current performance there’s strong reason to believe they’ll improve. Given his age and inconsistent track record, it’s difficult to imagine any team investing in Jones on a long-term basis with an expensive average annual value.

But if a team is hoping Jones’ breakout performance can continue on their roster, it’s possible Jones could net a nice raise from the $2MM he’s making this season.

James Reimer, San Jose Sharks

Jones’ replacement in San Jose, James Reimer, has long been a respected veteran option for NHL teams looking to add a tandem netminder.

Last season, Reimer set a career-high in games played, appearing in 48 contests and posting a .911 save percentage and a 2.90 goals-against-average.

Reimer’s performance is made all the more impressive by the fact that the Sharks defense he was playing behind was among the NHL’s weaker units.

Reimer has been particularly good on the penalty kill in San Jose, but this season he’s seen his overall numbers decline sharply.

He’s at an .895 save percentage now and has an .879 since returning from injury on December 13th. If his numbers remain around this range, let alone get worse, Reimer will likely go from being one of the better tandem options on the open market to more of a bounce-back candidate.

Semyon Varlamov, New York Islanders

As Ilya Sorokin has taken the reins on Long Island and become one of the NHL’s top netminders, Varlamov has faded somewhat from where he once was. The Russian earned a first-place Vezina Trophy vote in 2020-21, posting a highly impressive .929 save percentage in 36 games.

Since that point, Varlamov has ceded his role as the Islanders’ number-one goalie to Sorokin, and his save percentage has declined from .920 and above to the low teens. Since he’ll be 35 years old when the market opens, it’s possible that teams now view Varlamov as more of a tandem or backup option than the slam-dunk starter he was just a short time ago.

Even so, it’s undeniable that Varlamov was seen as one of the NHL’s best goalies quite recently. If he’s able to be had at a more affordable price than some of the big-name goalies on the open market, signing Varlamov could pay major dividends. There’s risk to investing in any player getting into their mid-thirties, but there also is a precedent for goaltenders being able to play well even to the age of 40, as we saw with Mike Smith.

He may have to take a pay cut from the $5MM he’s making now, but Varlamov should have a solid market to consider should be be available on the open market in the summer.

Jonathan Quick, Los Angeles Kings

One of the more legendary playoff performers in modern NHL history, Quick’s performance in recent years has been highly uneven. In 2020-21, it looked as though Quick’s days as a number-one goalie were over, as Cal Petersen played in far more games than Quick and posted a far better save percentage.

Then last season, Petersen struggled and Quick re-took the starter’s crease, leading the Kings back to the playoffs with a 23-13-9 record, 2.59 goals-against-average, and .910 save percentage. It seemed Quick was back.

Now, this season, as the Kings have struggled as a whole in their own end, Quick’s numbers have taken a major hit. He’s rocking an .883 save percentage and ranks near the bottom of the NHL in MoneyPuck’s goals saved above expected metric.

Quick will turn 37 later this month, and with players his age it’s more likely that sharp declines in performance end up permanent, rather than temporary setbacks.

If there’s anything Quick has shown over the course of his storied career, it’s that people who bet against him will end up paying a high price. So knowing how well he’s played in the past, it’s impossible to write him off after a difficult 23-game start to this season. But if he keeps letting in goals at this rate everything is on the table.

Joonas Korpisalo, Columbus Blue Jackets

There are few netminders in the NHL who have been dealt a worse hand this season than Korpisalo. The Blue Jackets have been besieged by injuries, particularly on the blueline where they quickly lost franchise defenseman Zach Werenski to a long-term injury.

The severe struggles of Elvis Merzlikins have put even more pressure on Korpisalo to play well, and all things considered, he has done an admirable job tending the crease for one of the NHL’s worst teams.

Through 18 games Korpisalo has a .908 save percentage, one that is significantly higher than the .865 mark Merzlikins has posted in just about the same number of games. That .908 mark also represents a massive improvement from the save percentages he’s had in the last two years, including the nightmarish .877 he posted last season.

All things considered, there’s a lot for Korpisalo to be proud of in his performance this season. MoneyPuck’s work marks him as having a higher goals saved above expected than netminders such as Jarry, Vitek Vanecek, and Stuart Skinner, starters for teams that are likely to be in the playoffs.

Whether his impressive performance through 18 games will earn him a solid next contract is still a mystery, though. Korpisalo’s inconsistency looms large over any strong runs he has this year, and it could be difficult for interested clubs to justify a sizeable investment in a player with such a shaky track record.

But the struggles Korpisalo faced in the past are not something he can change now. All he can do is attempt to weather the storm the Blue Jackets have faced this season and play well in these adverse conditions. So far, he’s done exactly that, and his efforts won’t go unnoticed by other clubs.

Antti Raanta, Carolina Hurricanes

Raanta, now 33 years old, has settled into a comfortable role as a backup netminder in Carolina. Due to injuries to Andersen, the team’s starter, Raanta has been able to showcase his talent on a bigger stage than he’d likely anticipated, and under that microscope he’s impressed.

He posted a .922 save percentage in 13 playoff starts last season, a hugely impressive performance in a league that places major value on playoff goaltending. In the regular season, he went 15-5-4 with a .912 save percentage. This year, Raanta’s save percentage is down, but he’s still winning the Hurricanes hockey games and his 2.63 goals-against-average is only a minor decline from last year.

This decline in save percentage likely won’t be the largest factor working against Raanta on the open market, it’ll be his struggles to stay healthy. Raanta hasn’t started more than 32 games since 2017-18, and hasn’t been able to stay consistently healthy throughout his NHL career.

When he does manage to get on the ice, he’s shown he can be one of the better backups in the NHL, capable of even providing impressive performances on hockey’s biggest stages. But one of the best things a backup goaltender can provide, beyond quality performances, is reliability and consistent availability.

That’s been Raanta’s biggest weakness in his NHL career, and despite solid performances in Carolina it’ll likely be what costs him in his return to unrestricted free agency.

The Role Players

Adin Hill, Vegas Golden Knights

In the summer of 2021, the Sharks surrendered a second-round draft choice in order to acquire Hill from the Arizona Coyotes. Yet just a year later, they traded him to Vegas for a fourth-rounder. Hill never quite found his footing in San Jose, posting a .906 save percentage in 22 starts.

He had some strong performances, but injuries took their toll and by the end of the year the Sharks made the choice to look elsewhere to fill out their crease. In Vegas, Hill’s numbers are remarkably similar to what he posted in San Jose, only he’s already at 15 starts this season, just seven away from his total from the entirety of 2021-22.

By staying healthy, Hill has enhanced his value. He’ll be 27 if he hits the open market in the summer, and if he can keep up his sound run of health he’ll be a quality option for a team looking to add a younger option to their crease.

Kevin Lankinen, Nashville Predators

After an impressive rookie season that resulted in him picking up some down-ballot Calder Trophy votes, Lankinen had a nightmarish 2021-22, his save percentage crashing from .909 to .891 and his goals-against-average ballooning from 3.01 to 3.50.

That decline led to his departure from Chicago, which paved the way for him to sign in Nashville to be Juuse Saros’ backup. In a more minor role than the one he shouldered with the Blackhawks, Lankinen has thrived.

He’s posted a .918 save percentage in 10 games, and his performances have been a moderate help toward the Predators’ efforts to remain in the hunt for a Wild Card spot. That ten-game sample size is, of course, not enough to make any long-term decisions about Lankinen’s future.

But what it does indicate is that Lankinen is perhaps better suited to perform well in a role as a true backup, rather than as the number-one goalie he was in his rookie year or the tandem netminder he was last season. Lankinen is earning $1.5MM against the cap this season, and if he can keep up his performances for a full year, he’ll get a pay raise as one of the better backups on the market in the summer.

Alex Nedeljkovic, Detroit Red Wings

The Hurricanes made a somewhat controversial decision in the 2021 offseason, trading Nedeljkovic, a Calder Trophy finalist and goalie they had spent several years developing, rather than give him the contract he felt he’d earned as a restricted free agent.

The Red Wings were happy to pounce on a still-young goalie who had posted a .932 save percentage that year, but it’s fair to say at this point that the Hurricanes’ choice to go with Andersen over Nedeljkovic was the right one.

While Andersen became a Vezina Trophy contender in Carolina, Nedeljkovic struggled in Detroit. On a team far weaker than what he’d played behind in Carolina, Nedeljkovic’s numbers declined, and he finished 2021-22 with a .901 save percentage through 52 starts.

Nedeljkovic’s lack of size means he relies more on his athleticism than other goalies, and on a team less capable of playing quality defense in front of him Nedeljkovic suffered. With an .880 save percentage this season in nine games played, Nedeljkovic finds himself battling with Magnus Hellberg for the right to back up Ville Husso.

Heading into free agency, it’s likely Nedeljkovic will be viewed as a bounce-back candidate rather than someone to invest in for a role where a team requires reliability and consistency.

Pheonix Copley, Los Angeles Kings

With only 45 NHL games to his name, Copley’s resume is far thinner than most of the goalies he’ll hit the open market with in the summer. Yet unlike many of the goalies with more extensive track records, Copley has performed well this season, posting a hugely impressive 12-2 record in 14 starts.

His actual performance hasn’t been all that flashy, but he’s given the Kings a chance to win in each night he’s played, which is something any team can appreciate.

Without a major track record, it’s difficult to imagine Copley having a massive market when his contract expires. But if he keeps winning like this, anything’s possible.

Others Of Note

Anthony Stolarz, Anaheim Ducks

After posting a rock-solid .917 save percentage in 28 games on a bad Duck’s team last year, Stolarz has declined to an .895 this season. Stolarz has proven all he can prove at the AHL level, meaning his floor in terms of role is as a team’s number-three goalie.

Whether he is signed to be a backup or as a competitive third-stringer could depend on how well he performs over the course of the rest of the season.

Alex Stalock, Chicago Blackhawks

Stalock has seemingly overcome the major health issues he faced in recent years and re-established himself as a legitimate NHL goaltender. That alone is worthy of celebrating. But Stalock’s actual performance this year makes his return to the ice all that more impressive.

On a team stripped for parts and built for the future, Stalock has posted a .918 save percentage in 14 games. MoneyPuck’s goals saved above expected stat ranks him in the upper portion of the NHL, ahead of some big-name players.

At 35 years old, it’s not particularly likely that Stalock has suddenly become an elite goaltender, despite his elite numbers. But what he’s done this year has definitely raised his stock leaguewide, and could earn him a raise on his next contract from the $750K he’s making this season.

Pictures courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

With the new year upon us, the NHL season is in full swing. Teams are jockeying for playoff position, and many players with expiring contracts across the NHL are playing games that could ultimately determine what type of payday they might receive in the summer.

In a multi-part series, we’ll take a look at each position group of the upcoming free agent class, and do a rundown on how those upcoming unrestricted free agents have performed this year. Which players have increased their odds of landing a massive contract? Which players have potentially hurt their earning potential with their play? We’ll break it all down here.

The Marquee Names

John Klingberg, Anaheim Ducks

If we travel back in time to just a year ago, there’d be no doubt that Klingberg would qualify as a “marquee name” for any free agent class. The Swedish blueliner had been an offensive force all season, and he finished the 2021-22 campaign with 47 points in 74 games.

Klingberg had a long record of success as a pace-pushing, offensive defenseman with tons of power play value. He was just the second defenseman in Dallas Stars franchise history to cross the 60-point plateau when he did so in 2017-18, and his 67 points that season ranks just behind the legendary Sergei Zubov’s 2005-06 campaign as the best offensive season by a Stars defenseman in history.

But unfortunately for Klingberg, that sterling reputation as an offensive defenseman didn’t materialize into a major contract. With a slower-than-expected market for his services, Klingberg took a one-year, $7MM deal with the Anaheim Ducks.

He took that contract presumably in order to put forth a productive season and re-enter the market next summer, as many had projected 2023 to be the year where the salary cap would finally meaningfully rise once again.

Things haven’t gone according to that plan, to say the least. Not only is the salary cap potentially slated to stay flat for another summer, but Klingberg is also mired in the least productive offensive season of his NHL career. He has scored just 13 points in 35 games, and the Ducks power play he was acquired to rehabilitate currently ranks as the second-worst in the NHL.

As a result, Klingberg’s stock heading into another trip to unrestricted free agency has taken a nosedive. There is potential for redemption, though, as Klingberg remains a likely candidate to be traded to a contending team in the coming months.

If Klingberg gets traded to a contender and plays well for his new team (including hopefully a productive playoff run) that could go a long way toward rehabilitating his stock and landing him a lucrative new contract.

The Solid Contributors

Nick Jensen, Washington Capitals

Stylistically, Jensen is about as far away from Klingberg as one can get, and he is firmly in the running to be the top defensive defenseman available on the open market next summer.

Acquired by the Capitals at the 2019 trade deadline, Jensen has been a high-quality blueliner for Washington, providing stabilizing defensive play at their back end. The Minnesota native is now 32 years old and took a while to reach the NHL. He was a 2009 fifth-round pick and made his NHL debut more than a half-decade after being drafted.

Since breaking into the NHL in 2016-17, Jensen has developed himself into a valuable top-four piece. He’s currently slotted on the Capitals’ top pairing next to fellow pending free agent Dmitry Orlov and is averaging nearly 21 minutes of ice time per night.

Jensen’s defensive play is his calling card, and he leads the Capitals in short-handed ice time, helping Washington’s penalty kill to a top-ten ranking leaguewide this season.

While offense isn’t what he’s getting his minutes to provide, the 19 points in 44 games he’s produced this season is certainly appreciated by coach Peter Laviolette.

The total package Jensen offers is one that is likely to garner extensive interest should he hit the open market. While his age may keep him from earning as long of a deal as he might like, blueliners who are as good in their own end and can weather as difficult minutes as Jensen does don’t grow on trees.

He’ll be a coveted option on the market should he be allowed to walk by the Capitals, and his play so far this season has certainly helped.

Damon Severson, New Jersey Devils

On paper, Severson is having a disappointing season so far this year. He scored 46 points last season and played a whopping 23:36 per night. This year, he’s averaging under 20 minutes a night and is only on pace to score 21 points.

But before dismissing Severson’s stock as on a major decline, additional context must be added to his profile. The Devils have added significant defensive talent in recent offseasons, and the additions of Ryan Graves, Jonas Siegenthaler, and John Marino have meant that the team doesn’t need to rely on Severson as extensively as they once did.

Additionally, the addition of Dougie Hamilton (who is now healthy after suffering an injury-plagued debut season for the Devils) has meant Severson’s impact on the team’s power play has waned.

But despite the fact that Severson is no longer the Devils’ unquestioned top defenseman, he’s still managed to play well. His offensive points production is down, but he’s still managing to generate his fair share of chances from the back end, and is still moving the puck well.

Defensively, Severson has played a supporting role on a penalty kill that is one of the better units in the NHL. He’s not a stalwart defensive force like Siegenthaler is, but he’s definitely a capable defender in his own right.

The balanced two-way value Severson provides the Devils is something any team in the NHL could use, and his ability to play higher up in the lineup if needed will help him on the open market.

While he likely won’t receive the type of contract next summer that he would have gotten had he repeated his 46-point, 23-plus minutes per night performance, he’s still lined up to receive a nice contract from a defense-needy team.

Matt Dumba, Minnesota Wild

The subject of intense trade rumors for the past several seasons, Dumba is on an expiring contract and set to potentially hit unrestricted free agency for the first time in his career.

He’ll be 29 when he hits free agency, and he’s in a bit of an odd place. On one hand, leaguewide reputation is rock-solid.

The 2020 King Clancy Memorial Trophy winner has averaged over 21 minutes of ice time per night every season since he was 22 years old and has been a consistent top-four presence on Wild teams that have missed the playoffs just twice since he made his NHL debut.

On the other hand, it’s difficult to ignore signs that Dumba’s reputation isn’t totally aligned with the on-ice value he provides.

While the energy he brings to defense is undoubtedly valuable and the minutes he consistently handles are undoubtedly difficult, his on-ice results have been uneven.

Dumba’s role has declined since last season, and his offensive production isn’t where it once was. He’s scored just 11 points in 40 games this season, and he hasn’t reached 30 points in quite a few seasons.

He’s not the 50-point defenseman he once appeared to be in 2017-18, and in the absence of major point production, his transitional ability and defensive play need to be at a high level to justify his $6MM price tag. It’s an open question as to whether the other areas of Dumba’s game are at that level.

But despite those question marks, Dumba is still a beloved professional who has made a major, positive impact on the Wild over the course of his career there.

The evaluation of defensemen across the league can vary significantly between teams, meaning there are likely to be a few teams very bullish on what Dumba can offer. But even so, it’s not difficult to see what Dumba has put forth this season and be left wanting a little more.

The Role Players

Scott Mayfield, New York Islanders

Mayfield is in his fifth season earning $1.45MM against the cap, a number that isn’t exactly an adequate reflection of the value he’s provided to the Islanders.

The former Denver Pioneer, now 30, has averaged around 20 minutes per night for the past few seasons and has been a key stay-at-home contributor for Islanders teams that made some deep playoff runs.

His offensive production won’t count for more than 20 points per year, although he has chipped in at some very important moments.

The defensive game is where Mayfield truly shines, though, and it’s where he’ll make his money on the open market. He leads all Islanders averaging over 3 minutes of short-handed time per night, and that puts him tied for 13th in the NHL in most average penalty-killing ice time.

Mayfield will be 31 at the start of next season, meaning he’s reaching the tail-end of his prime years. But teams have in the past shown they’re willing to pay for quality players into their thirties, and there’s no reason Mayfield should be any different. He’s been a legitimately valuable defensive difference-maker on Long Island.

Connor Clifton, Boston Bruins

The Bruins have been an absolute juggernaut so far this season, and their success as a team has been fueled by the individual successes of their players. Clifton, who will be 28 when the market opens next summer, is part of that equation.

The 2013 fifth-round pick has grown from part-timer to everyday piece in Boston, and is on the final year of a $1MM AAV dea that severely underpays him relative to the value he brings on the ice. Clifton has been a steady contributor on the Bruins’ third pairing, giving coach Jim Montgomery over 18 safe minutes each night, as well as nearly two minutes a night on the penalty kill.

The track record isn’t huge with Clifton, who has under 200 NHL games on his resume. Clifton’s record of offensive production is also thin, although his 12 points in 40 games this season are a career-high.

Helping the Bruins to a long playoff run would do great things for his potential to earn a nice deal on the open market, but even in the absence of postseason play Clifton has helped himself well in what has been a nice platform season.

Luke Schenn, Vancouver Canucks

Schenn, 33, hasn’t had the smoothest career track. The former Kelowna Rocket was the fifth-overall pick at the 2008 NHL draft, and never quite managed to live up to the lofty expectations placed on his shoulders as a top prospect in a hockey-mad market.

Even though he has largely been viewed as a disappointment relative to his draft position, Schenn is now just 97 games away from reaching the 1,000-game plateau. He’s also now a two-time Stanley Cup champion, and his play for the Canucks has done wonders to enhance his reputation league-wide.

In Vancouver, Schenn has gone from a number-six or seven defenseman to a true everyday contributor. He’s currently playing over 17 minutes a night for coach Bruce Boudreau, including nearly two minutes per night on the penalty kill.

Schenn’s agent, Ben Hankinson, took to Twitter last month to sing Schenn’s praises, perhaps giving us a look at what his pitch will be to teams in order to get the most lucrative possible contract for his client.

As he’s a 33-year-old physical defenseman with major tread on his tires, it’s fair to wonder if paying a sizeable chunk of change to Schenn is a wise investment for any team. But Schenn’s improvement in Vancouver is undeniable, and if he’s traded to a contending team and manages to put forth quality play on the major stage that is the Stanley Cup playoffs, anything’s possible.

Justin Holl, Toronto Maple Leafs

While Holl has been the subject of some significant criticism from the Toronto market in past seasons, he’s quietly played some quality hockey this year. He’s currently partnered with Maple Leafs number-one blueliner Morgan Rielly on the team’s top pairing, and is averaging over 21 minutes played per night.

Holl is on pace to set a career-high in minutes played, and he’s also averaging the most short-handed ice time on the Maple Leafs’ roster, playing in over three minutes on the penalty kill per game. The former Minnesota Gopher will turn 31 later this month and could leave the Maple Leafs, the only NHL team he’s ever played for, next summer.

He won’t be mistaken for a top-end defensive defenseman, but it’s difficult to say Holl has done anything but present improved play this season. If the Maple Leafs can finally vanquish the first-round demons that have plagued them for a half-decade, Holl’s standing going into unrestricted free agency could improve even more.

Radko Gudas, Florida Panthers

The days of Gudas being viewed as just a bruising enforcer defenseman are no more. While Gudas has retained his signature no-holds-barred physical style in Florida, he’s grown into a much more well-rounded blueliner during his time in South Florida.

Gudas’ average ice time has leaped up more than a full minute in Florida compared to how he was played in Washington and his later years in Philadelphia, and his play helped the Panthers go on an incredible run last season that was capped off by winning the President’s Trophy.

With just six points in 32 games and just 16 last season on the highest-scoring team of the cap era, it’s clear Gudas’ offense isn’t what keeps him in the lineup each night. But if a team is looking for a defensive defenseman who brings an intimidating edge, Gudas could be the most ferocious option on the market.

Trevor van Riemsdyk, Washington Capitals

Although he’s perhaps been a bit hidden in the shadow of his high-scoring, former top prospect older brother James van Riemsdyk, Trevor has become a quality NHLer in his own right.

He’s an undrafted player with 500 NHL games on his resume, and this season he’s been a rock on coach Laviolette’s back end. Paired with Jensen on the Capitals’ top penalty-killing unit, van Riemsdyk has helped the Capitals rank as one of the better shorthanded units in the NHL.

Public analytics models are quite bullish on van Riemsdyk’s work in his own end, and although reputation can sometimes drive a defenseman’s market value more than it likely should, van Riemsdyk’s name value is steadily increasing as the Capitals rise in the standings.

Frequent partner Erik Gustafsson has run wild thanks to the freedom afforded by van Riemsdyk’s sound defensive play, the Swedish blueliner’s 25 points in 43 games are not only a testament to his own on-ice improvement but also how well he’s played in tandem with his partner.

With his play this season, van Riemsdyk has put together a strong resume for any team seeking a quality stay-at-home defenseman to pair with a more offensively-inclined puck mover to consider.

Kevin Shattenkirk, Anaheim Ducks

Once a marquee name sitting atop an offseason free agent class, Shattenkirk has settled into a more low-key role since being bought out of his major contract by the New York Rangers.

After winning the Stanley Cup with Tampa Bay, Shattenkirk signed in Anaheim and has had an up-and-down tenure in Southern California.

A strong run on the power play led Shattenkirk to score a respectable 35 points last season, but other than that two of his three seasons as a Duck have been major disappointments. He’ll be 34 years old when the market opens, and he’s on pace to score just 20 points.

Although a trade to a contender could spark a return to form, it’s likely that Shattenkirk will hit the open market next summer in a significantly diminished position to where he was last summer.

Erik Johnson, Colorado Avalanche

A longtime leader on the Avalanche’s back end, Johnson finally won the first Stanley Cup of his career last summer. Once the Avalanche’s clear top defenseman, the emergence of Cale Makar, Devon Toews, and Samuel Girard has allowed Johnson to settle into a more suitable role as the team’s fourth or fifth defenseman, depending on the health of Bowen Byram.

In that role, Johnson has been solid. He’s given the Avalanche nearly 18 minutes per night and provided sound defensive play, some penalty killing, and some physicality in those minutes.

At this stage of his career, it doesn’t seem particularly likely that Johnson would choose to uproot his family and sign with another club after over a decade in Colorado. But given the challenge the Avalanche face under the salary cap, it’s likely that another team could be in a position to offer Johnson a more lucrative deal than what Colorado is poised to afford.

As a result, Johnson could have a difficult choice to make next summer. He’s made it clear he still belongs in the NHL despite the fact that he’ll turn 35 later this season, and his play has earned him another contract.

But if he wants to maximize his earnings on his new deal and minimize the decline in pay he’ll likely face after making $6MM against the cap for the past seven years, he may be forced to sign elsewhere.

Others Of Note

Travis Hamonic, Ottawa Senators

It was somewhat curious when the still-rebuilding Senators traded a third-round pick to the Canucks for Hamonic last season, but what that deal came to signify was an end to rebuilding and a return to attempting to contend for the playoffs in Ottawa.

Unfortunately for Ottawa, Hamonic’s addition hasn’t brought the Senators all that much closer to the playoffs, and now as a pending unrestricted free agent, his future seems cloudy. Playing largely with rookie defenseman/top prospect Jake Sanderson, Hamonic has had an uneven year.

There are some positive aspects to the season he’s had. Hamonic has the second-most average short-handed time on ice among Senators skaters, and the penalty kill he helps anchor currently ranks as the fifth-best in the NHL. He’s respected for the sacrifices he makes in his own end, and has registered 66 blocked shots.

But public analytics models are quite bearish on his work in his own end, with the work of The Athletic’s Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn, for example, holding Hamonic in the fourth percentile leaguewide in 5v5 on-ice defensive impact. (subscription link) 

So opinions on Hamonic are definitely split. But like with many of the defensemen on this list, a trade to a contending team and a role on a squad making a deep playoff run could earn him some money.

While some of the more analytically-inclined front offices might shy away from investing in Hamonic next summer, he should have some suitors among some more traditional teams who place more value on the particular set brand of play Hamonic provides.

Justin Braun, Philadelphia Flyers

Braun will turn 36 in February and is currently playing out a one-year, $1MM deal with the Philadelphia Flyers. Braun’s actually been pretty good in his own end, helping out on the Flyers’ penalty kill and generally just playing sound hockey for coach John Tortorella.

But more recently, he’s found himself in the press box as his offensive production of zero points in 33 games is becoming harder and harder to ignore. With a cheap expiring contract and a long track record of safe stay-at-home play, Braun is a candidate to be traded at the deadline, just as he was last season.

Given the lack of any sort of offensive element to his game, Braun’s market next summer will be somewhat restricted. But since his defensive game is still NHL-caliber, he should be able to catch on with a team as a veteran depth addition capable of giving safe, low-event minutes.

Michael Stone, Calgary Flames

A staple in Calgary for over a half-decade, Stone has provided the Flames with defensive depth at a cheap price. This year has been no different, as he’s played 32 games for coach Darryl Sutter’s squad at just a $750k cap hit.

Since he doesn’t play on either special teams unit, his value in a specialist role is limited. But coach Sutter still clearly trusts him enough to dress him regularly, and the two-time Stanley Cup champion’s endorsement carries weight.

He’ll be 33 by the time the market opens next summer, and expecting him to sign another deal with Calgary near the league minimum would be a safe bet.

Pictures courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

With the new year upon us, the NHL season is in full swing. Teams are jockeying for playoff position, and many players with expiring contracts across the NHL are playing games that could ultimately determine what type of payday they might receive in the summer.

In a multi-part series, we’ll take a look at each position group of the upcoming free agent class, and do a rundown on how those upcoming unrestricted free agents have performed this year. Which players have increased their odds of landing a massive contract? Which players have potentially hurt their earning potential with their play? We’ll break it all down here.

The Marquee Names

Shayne Gostisbehere, Arizona Coyotes

While Gostisbehere may not be the traditional free agent “marquee name” whose acquisition can shape the fortunes of an entire franchise, his play as an Arizona Coyote has solidified his status as one of the top left-shot free agent defensemen in his class.

Gostisbehere arrived in Arizona in the summer of 2021, with his former team, the Philadelphia Flyers, paying draft picks to the Coyotes in exchange for Arizona taking on Gostisbhere’s $4.5MM cap hit.

After scoring 65 points in 2017-18, Gostisbehere’s descent from stardom was rapid, and his warts in his own end combined with declining offense forced his way out of favor in the Flyers organization.

While the trade to the Coyotes at one point seemed to be rock bottom for Gostisbehere’s professional career, the deal seems to have actually served as the catalyst for a career rebirth. Gostisbehere scored 14 goals and 51 points last season, which ranked him in the top-15 in defensive scoring.

It was the inconsistency of Gostisbehere’s production that caused him major issues in Philadelphia, but thankfully he has continued his strong play into this year as well. In 37 games so far this year Gostisbehere has 26 points, which is a 58-point full-season pace.

He’ll never be someone coaches trust for his play in his own end or away from the puck. But using the case of Tony DeAngelo as an example, it’s clear defensemen in Gostisbehere’s mold are valued league-wide.

Gostisbehere’s former team parted with multiple draft picks in order to acquire DeAngelo, who like Gostisbehere is a supremely talented and productive offensive defenseman without much off-puck or defensive value. It’s possible that in his trip to unrestricted free agency, Gostisbehere views the $5MM AAV DeAngelo makes to be his target on any new contract.

Given that Gostisbehere, who will be 30 in April, was just two years ago seen as a salary cap deadweight at a $4.5MM AAV, the possibility of him now receiving a new contract above that cap hit on the open market would be the perfect culmination of what has been a stunning career revival.

The Solid Contributors

Ryan Graves, New Jersey Devils

Graves, like Gostisbehere, is another blueliner who has seen his career take a significant upward trajectory in recent years. At one point, Graves was more or less viewed as one of the dime-a-dozen minor league farmhands that patrol the many bluelines of the AHL.

Three seasons into his professional career, Graves had seen his importance in the New York Rangers organization decline, and he was unceremoniously shipped out west in exchange for Chris Bigras in a deal PHR at the time called a swap of minor leaguers.

The Avalanche organization saw something in Graves and believed they could get the most out of his hulking six-foot-five frame. After another year and a half spent in the minors, Graves earned a spot in the NHL with the Avalanche and didn’t let it go.

He played an extremely limited role in 2018-19, but in the very next season, he averaged the second-most ice time on the penalty kill of any Avalanche player.

The year after, Graves led Colorado in short-handed ice time. With his cap hit set to rise as a restricted free agent, the team was forced to trade Graves to the New Jersey Devils.

In New Jersey, Graves has further solidified his status as a quality top-four defenseman. He flashed some more offensive touch last season, setting a career-high with 28 points.

This year he’s remained an important part of the Devils’ defensive plans even as he’s ceded his role as a penalty-killing anchor to John Marino and Jonas Siegenthaler, two other formidable defenders.

Graves will be 28 in the summer, and his age lines him up quite well for a potential payday. He isn’t having as strong of a season this year as he had last year, but he remains a valued defenseman nonetheless.

Dmitry Orlov, Washington Capitals

Orlov may well belong in the “marquee names” tier of free agents, but given that he’ll be 32 when (or if) he hits free agency this summer, it seems more appropriate to put him in a tier below Gostisbehere.

That’s not meant as any slight to Orlov’s play or value, though. Although he’s acted somewhat in the shadow of John Carlson, one of the league’s most prolific offensive defensemen, Orlov has been a rock for Washington for an entire era of Capitals hockey.

The Russian blueliner has played in nearly 700 career games and is typically a slam-dunk bet to score around 30 points. Orlov pairs that valuable secondary scoring with the ability to weather difficult defensive minutes, making him a dream number-two defenseman.

This season, Orlov has put an injury behind him and resumed his high-end play. He’s helping the Capitals’ penalty kill rank inside the league’s top-ten, and is scoring at a 36-point pace.

While his age may mean a massive long-term deal is ruled out for him, his stock is holding steady in advance of the expiration of his $5.1MM AAV deal.

Vladislav Gavrikov, Columbus Blue Jackets

While the Blue Jackets have had a season to forget so far in 2022-23, Gavrikov has continued his strong play from last season and positioned himself at the forefront of the NHL’s trade rumor news cycle.

After scoring 33 points last season, Gavrikov’s offense is down this year. He’s on pace to score just 20 points, but that may not take a major bite out of his overall value.

Ever since it was announced that franchise blueliner Zach Werenski would miss the rest of the season due to injury, Gavrikov has been thrust into a significant role as the Blue Jackets’ number-one defenseman.

Gavrikov averages the third-most short-handed ice time per game, and although the Blue Jackets have been one of the league’s worst teams, their penalty kill actually ranks in the middle of the pack league-wide.

He’s a big, physical defenseman who has been pressed into extremely difficult minutes and has found success in those circumstances.

Defensemen who bring that kind of value to the table are in-demand league-wide, and Gavrikov should be one of the top defensemen in the mix around the trade deadline.

A trade to a contender and a deep playoff run would do wonders for Gavrikov’s stock heading into free agency, just as the Canadiens’ run to the 2021 Stanley Cup Final did wonders for Ben Chiarot’s league-wide standing.

Even if that extensive playoff run doesn’t materialize, Gavrikov’s play in extremely challenging circumstances has raised his stock heading into free agency. Since he’ll be just 27 when he hits the open market, he could be in line to land a major contract.

Dmitry Kulikov, Anaheim Ducks

There are certain players across the NHL who are established, known commodities. When teams add these players to their roster, they know with a strong degree of certainty what they’ll be receiving, and those players in turn have established track records of providing performances well within what could reasonably be expected of them.

Kulikov is one of those players. The journeyman blueliner is on his fifth team in four seasons, and could add a sixth in that time frame should he get traded before the trade deadline. He arrived in Anaheim as part of an offseason trade, landing in Southern California in exchange for future considerations.

The Wild weren’t able to generate a significant trade market for Kulikov, as his $2.25MM cap hit may have been a major obstacle in a flat-cap environment. Nonetheless, the fact that he was acquired for essentially nothing hasn’t stopped him from providing value to the Ducks, one of the league’s worst teams.

Kulikov’s offense isn’t his calling card, and his performance of nine points in 39 games underscores that notion. But what Kulikov does provide is steady defensive play and minutes a coach doesn’t need to worry about.

He’s been a bit overmatched as an anchor of a penalty kill in Anaheim, as he’s averaging over three minutes per night on the league’s third-worst shorthanded unit. In a less significant role on a contending team, he should be able to thrive.

The fact that he was traded for future considerations on just a $2.25MM cap hit doesn’t bode very well for his odds of earning a raise in the summer, but nonetheless, Kulikov’s stock is holding steady, and he remains a safe investment for any team looking to reinforce their blueline.

The Role Players

Ian Cole, Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning signed Cole last summer with a particular reason in mind. They needed an experienced, reliable defenseman to fill in some vacant minutes on their back end, and needed one who wouldn’t require a pricey long-term commitment.

Cole, 33, has done exactly that, scoring 12 points in 34 games and averaging the fourth-most ice time per night of any Tampa Bay blueliner.

A two-time Stanley Cup champion, Cole has helped the Lightning’s penalty kill rank inside the league’s top-ten, and has been a reliable defensive presence overall.

While teams are far wearier of giving pricey contracts with term attached to veteran defensive defensemen than they once were, Cole’s play in Tampa has been strong enough to earn him another decent contract, albeit possibly another one-year deal.

He has major playoff experience under his belt, which is something teams value, and should the Lightning go on yet another deep run in the spring, Cole’s wallet stands to benefit.

Olli Maatta, Detroit Red Wings

It may have been a surprise to some when Maatta, who is now 28 years old, signed a one-year, $2.25MM contract in the offseason.

While Maatta’s lack of foot speed had kept him from being the minutes-eating, top-four force many envisioned him becoming when he was a top prospect, he had still developed into a reliable NHL blueliner.

That one-year deal came at a major pay cut from the $4.08MM AAV he had earned on his last contract, although the flat cap environment likely played a role in that.

As we inch closer to an environment where the salary cap will rise again, Maatta could be in line to benefit. He’s been a solid contributor for the Red Wings, averaging the fourth-most minutes of any Detroit blueliner. He’s chipped in on their penalty kill as well.

Maatta has also added 13 points in 32 games, which is a 33-point pace. After scoring just eight points in 66 games last season, this uptick in offensive production is certainly going to be useful as Maatta readies for a second consecutive trip to the open market.

Brian Dumoulin, Pittsburgh Penguins

On one hand, it looks like this year has been business as usual for Dumoulin, one of the Penguins’ most important defensive contributors for the past seven-plus seasons. He remains a crucial part of the Penguins’ penalty kill, one of the league’s best units, and is still playing nearly twenty minutes per night.

Although some of the public analytics models are split on Dumoulin’s value, some look at his defensive performance positively and indicate that he’s remained the valuable defensive rock that he’s been for much of this era of Penguins hockey.

Look more closely, though, and you’ll see that Dumoulin has had a challenging season in Pittsburgh. His usually rock-solid defensive play has been far more mistake-prone than usual this season, and the team’s unshakeable loyalty to Dumoulin in the midst of this decline in play has garnered criticism from Penguins fans and members of the media alike.

This reality leaves Dumoulin in a complicated position heading into the expiration of his $4.1MM AAV contract. His name still carries value to many, especially to those who remember his exploits during the Penguins’ back-to-back Stanley Cup Championships.

But there are growing signs that the Dumoulin of those years is gone, signs that are becoming harder and harder to ignore. With that in mind, it’s hard to say that Dumoulin’s stock is trending anywhere but down.

Erik Gustafsson, Washington Capitals

One could not be blamed for being a bit confused by Gustafsson’s career trajectory. After a few seasons spent largely in the AHL, Gustafsson had an extremely successful 2018-19 campaign, scoring 17 goals and 60 points. The year after, though, Gustafsson scored just 29 points, a total not high enough for an offense-only blueliner to justify regular minutes.

Gustafsson was traded to the Calgary Flames that next season, and then signed a contract with the Flyers.

He was downright bad in Philadelphia and was shipped to Montreal for a seventh-round pick. After playing a sheltered role during the Canadiens’ run to the Stanley Cup final, it looked as though Gustafsson could be headed back to Europe, having played his way out of favor in the NHL.

That summer, though, Gustafsson managed to earn an NHL deal, returning to Chicago after a PTO with the New York Islanders. He wasn’t great, scoring just 18 points in 59 games, but his performance was good enough to earn him a cheap one-year deal from the Capitals, who were looking to affordably fill the void left by Justin Schultz’s departure.

This year, Gustafsson has been great for the Capitals, and he’s recently been on a scoring tear. He had a stretch where he scored 13 points in just seven games, and his season total is up to 23 points in 40 games.

That’s a 47-point pace, and if he can manage to hit the 40-point plateau, you can consider his NHL career revived.

The inconsistency that has plagued Gustafsson’s NHL career may hurt his odds at a major contract, as might his age, as he’ll be 31 when he hits the open market.

But at the very least, Gustafsson’s resurgent offensive production places him as a solid backup plan for any team that misses out on signing Gostisbehere.

His stock has shot up in recent weeks, and if he can keep scoring he’ll likely earn a decent raise from his current $800k cap hit.

Carson Soucy, Seattle Kraken

There were some who questioned why the Kraken selected Soucy, 28, in their expansion draft, rather than selecting then-24-year-old goalie Kaapo Kahkonen, who had stellar performances in Liiga and the AHL on his resume.

The Kraken’s choice has largely been justified by Soucy’s play, though, as the blueliner has established himself as a full-time NHLer in Seattle. Soucy scored 10 goals and 21 points last season and saw his role increase after the departures of Mark Giordano and Jeremy Lauzon.

This season, Soucy has been an important contributor to the Kraken’s bottom pairing, adding reliable minutes in that third-pairing capacity as well as solid second-unit penalty-killing duties.

Soucy’s defensive play has been extremely well-liked by public analytics models, and although those strong underlying numbers haven’t materialized into a top-four role in Seattle, it could make him a potentially savvy investment for a team looking to unearth an underrated player on the open market.

While he may not have the box score numbers or the type of minutes that typically earn blueliners major contracts, there are things to like in Soucy’s game. Whether those commendable qualities are rewarded with a significant contract remains to be seen.

Alexander Edler, Los Angeles Kings

A veteran of over 1,000 NHL games, Edler is firmly in the one-year deal phase of his career. He earned $3.5MM last season before taking a one-year, $750k extension (with bonuses attached) to remain in Los Angeles.

Edler isn’t what he once was, but he’s still been able to give the Kings bottom-pairing minutes, some time on the penalty kill, and some leadership value. It’s unlikely that Edler will look for or manage to earn a major raise from the contract he received last season, but his status heading into free agency is notable nonetheless.

At this stage of his career, a major move, one with the potential to uproot his family as he heads to a new market to play, seems unlikely. But he’s still a useful piece, and should have a place in the mix for Los Angeles should he choose to continue his career beyond this season.

Niko Mikkola, St. Louis Blues

Mikkola is on the other end of his career compared to Edler, set to hit free agency for the first time at the age of 27. The Finnish blueliner has been a defensive specialist in St. Louis, playing second-pairing minutes next to Colton Parayko as well as time on the penalty kill.

He’s earning $1.9MM against the cap this season, and at the age of 27 represents a younger investment for teams looking to add a defenseman. There isn’t much offense to his game, but teams can always find a use for a big, physical defensive defenseman, and that reality should help him on the open market.

Others Of Note

Nick Holden, Ottawa Senators

A veteran of over 600 NHL games, the 35-year-old Holden has embraced a veteran leadership role on a young Senators team. The undrafted blueliner has seen quite a bit in his extensive career and is helping the Senators inch closer to a return to contention.

Holden has largely played on the third pairing for the Senators, helping shelter Erik Brannstrom, a young, offensively-focused blueliner who is prone to defensive lapses. There isn’t much offense to speak of in Holden’s game, but he has a major role in the Senators’ penalty kill.

His play this season has kept his stock steady heading into a possible trip to free agency, and he’ll be an attractive option for a team looking to add a veteran defensive defenseman at a lower price point.

Marc Staal, Florida Panthers

The role Holden could end up playing in this summer’s free agent market is the one Staal played on the market last summer. The veteran stay-at-home defenseman signed a one-year, league-minimum deal with the Panthers, acting as a cheap addition of leadership and defensive play to a strong Panthers roster.

Florida’s season hasn’t gone as they’d hoped it would, and part of their struggles have been due to Staal playing a larger role than he’s equipped to handle at this point in his career.

Staal is leading the Panthers in short-handed ice time per game and is currently slotted in on the team’s top pairing as Aaron Ekblad’s partner. In 2023, it’s difficult to justify using Staal, 35, as a top-pairing defenseman.

He’s an unquestionably accomplished player who has had a heck of an NHL career, but top-pairing deployment isn’t putting Staal in a position to play at his best.

Calvin de Haan, Carolina Hurricanes

At just an $850k cap hit, de Haan has been a valuable addition to the Hurricanes’ blueline. Since coach Rod Brind’Amour has such a deep and talented stable of blueliners, de Haan has been afforded the ability to play in a comfortable, relatively limited role in Carolina.

In those manageable minutes, de Haan has excelled, providing the team with safe, competent defensive play. He’s not asked to play much on special teams, and averages just over 12 minutes per night, so on paper it’s easy to see de Haan’s performance as an indication of his declining NHL value.

But looking at his case more generously, one can look at the 12:30 per night de Haan provides as over 12 minutes Brind’Amour doesn’t need to worry about each game. There’s value in de Haan’s ability to provide that, which puts him in a favorable position heading into the expiration of his one-year contract.

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