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PHR Mailbag: Blackhawks, Kraken, Predictions, Stars, Draft, Devils, Mantha, Kings

at CDT | by 7 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what Seattle might do to add before the deadline, how Dallas could be an intriguing team to keep an eye on, if there’s a trade market for Anthony Mantha, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s two mailbag columns.

Grocery stick: What would the Blackhawks do with Connor Bedard? If they keep trading away everyone, is Bedard supposed to play with wingers like Mackenzie Entwistle and Boris Katchouk? Should I keep my fingers crossed anyone else wins the lottery?

This is a question I’ve wondered myself for a few possible lottery winners.  When you get a potential franchise player, the last thing a team should want to do is to waste his three cheap seasons by continuing to aim to finish at the bottom of the standings.  If Bedard pans out as many expect him to, his second contract is going to be a pricey one, probably in the double-digit AAV range.  It’s much easier to try to win when that player is capped at a $1MM base salary on an entry-level deal.

For Chicago specifically, I don’t think winning the lottery would necessarily end the rebuild and the spending would start right away to add some quality talent around him.  However, I do think it would expedite what otherwise is likely to be a multi-year process.

Next season, I wouldn’t expect much to change.  I think they’ll want to add a capable veteran or two (or perhaps re-sign a certain duo if they opt not to be dealt) to insulate Bedard a little bit but the goal will still be tanking so their current wingers would still likely be part of the lineup.  In 2024-25, Frank Nazar might be ready to turn pro after his freshman year this season was cut short due to injury and Lukas Reichel should be a full-timer by then.  They’ll also be armed with ample cap space and what should be a pretty good selling point (come play in a strong market with the next great star) to help attract some quality veterans.  That’s not enough to become an immediate contender but they might be able to get to the playoffs.  From there, 2025-26 would be their ‘go for it’ year before Bedard’s contract would start to become more of an obstacle.

aka.nda: How big do the Kraken dare to dream about their postseason?

I don’t expect GM Ron Francis to be dreaming too big here.  Part of the logic for Seattle hiring him was the slow and steady approach he has for roster building.  This is only their second year and I don’t think he feels that they’re at a spot where it’s time to flip a switch, consolidate some assets into more impact pieces, and really go for it.

There’s a big question that stands out to me that make it difficult to justify loading up too much, their goaltending.  Martin Jones isn’t a true starting goalie, Philipp Grubauer is still underachieving, and even when Chris Driedger returns from his season-long injury, he’s not a real starter either.  They’re not going to go trade for yet another goalie and it’s hard to think someone in that triumvirate is going to carry them to postseason success.  With that in mind, it’s probably not the right time to load up.

They’ve already made their depth move on the back end with the addition of Jaycob Megna from San Jose.  I could see them aiming for a third-line forward signed beyond this year with Toronto’s second-rounder being in play (a non-rental makes it easier for them to justify parting with the pick) but that’s about the extent of the buying I expect them to do.

The Duke: Oh, Supreme Soothsaying Spheroid, I humbly seek your wise fortune-telling: 1. Does Horvat somehow resurrect Barzal’s scoring? 2. Luke Hughes rumored up with Devils in early March; does he make their PP? 3. Does Tarasenko stay or go – and to where n’ for whom? 4. Same Q regarding Laine?

1) If you mean scoring in terms of goals, probably not.  Mathew Barzal just isn’t a goal scorer; he’s a playmaker.  It doesn’t matter who you put with him, he’ll hover around the mid-teens for goals; he’s just not a high-end shooter.  But what Bo Horvat should do is balance things out.  The Isles now have two capable scoring lines with some players that can be shifted around.  In the long term, that’s going to help their offense and, by extension, help Barzal’s point total.  If he’s on the wing with Horvat as he is now, that line should score more.  If Barzal’s on the second line and Horvat’s line is drawing the tighter checkers, that should make it a bit easier on Barzal.  Long story short, the trade should help Barzal’s assist total but I wouldn’t expect his goal total to change much.

2) Assuming Hughes does turn pro as expected and is in New Jersey’s lineup, it wouldn’t make a lot of sense if he wasn’t on one of their power play units.  If you’re going to put someone into the lineup straight out of college, putting that player in a position to succeed is critical.  He’s quite comfortable and productive on the man advantage at Michigan so it would make sense to play him on the second unit with the Devils.  Damon Severson is in that spot at the moment but only has four goals (none of which were on the power play) so it’s not as if that spot can’t be upgraded.

3) Well, we all know the answer to this one now as Vladimir Tarasenko is with the Rangers as the crystal ball predicted back in December.

4) There isn’t much of a reason to think Patrik Laine is going anywhere over the next few weeks.  It was a big deal for them to get Laine to give up a few UFA years on his last contract so why would they move him in the first year of that?  Yes, things haven’t gone well at all and there will be changes coming but it’s not going to be their top guys that move.  Laine (and Johnny Gaudreau) should be around for a couple more years at least.

@JasonClausen7: Are the Stars pretty much handcuffed this trade deadline?  It seems the Benn and Seguin contracts have stopped them from being able to do anything lately.  Benn’s resurgence has been great but what’s happened to Seguin?  Will he ever be better than this?

I actually think Dallas is in reasonable shape compared to some other potential buyers.  Barely having $1MM in cap room (per CapFriendly) isn’t much to work with but it’s better than quite a few teams.  On top of that, they have an expiring offset contract in Anton Khudobin who’s counting on the books at $2.208MM while he’s in the minors.  Most contenders don’t have a veteran roster player that they’d want to move out but Khudobin, who isn’t on the roster at all, is an easy exception.  Include him in a trade and all of a sudden, that ups their spending capital past the $3MM mark and if the trading team is retaining up to the maximum of 50%, now we’re talking about a $6MM player.  That gives them some options so I don’t see them being handcuffed.

As for Tyler Seguin, I don’t see a big resurgence coming.  He’s averaging 0.66 points per game this season.  If we expand that timeline back to his average since 2018-19, it’s at 0.66 points per game.  This is basically who he is now, a second liner that, if he’s healthy, should average between 50-55 points in a season.  That’s still a pretty useful player all things considered.  Don’t get me wrong, the contract is lousy and is probably one of the worst in the league.  But at the very least, he’s still a more than serviceable player.

Devil Shark: I know it’s early(ish) but… Is 2018 the biggest bust draft this millennium?

By a quick look, there are about three top-tier players out of the whole draft and a few bit players which seems incredibly weak. I’ve seen a lot of debate about the top drafts of the past 20 years… but what about the worst?

Thanks in advance.

The top-end depth of this draft is okay in Rasmus Dahlin, Quinn Hughes, Andrei Svechnikov, and Brady Tkachuk.  That’s not bad and all those players are still on an upward trajectory.  Perhaps there isn’t a superstar in the mix but those are some quality core players that will have long careers.  But there is definitely some fall-off after that as Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Barrett Hayton, and Filip Zadina (all top-six picks) have been depth players at best thus far.  There have been some good value picks (Noah Dobson at 11, Joel Farabee at 14, and K’Andre Miller at 22 among the first rounders) but even at that, that’s not that special compared to other seasons.

I think I’d nominate 2012 as a bigger bust of a draft than 2018.  Nail Yakupov was a bad pick at first overall.  Ryan Murray is no more than a depth defender now, he was the second pick.  Alex Galchenyuk’s in the minors after bouncing around the last few years (and is still fifth in scoring from this group).  The fourth pick, Griffin Reinhart, never scored a single NHL goal.  Now, there have been some good value picks from that class that have given it some depth (Filip Forsberg, Tomas Hertl, and Teuvo Teravainen were all picked in the middle third of the first round) and there are 21 players (and counting) with at least 500 NHL appearances.  That helps.  But 2018’s group should eventually get to that level within the next six years (where it could be better compared with 2012’s class today) and at least the first couple of picks (Dahlin and Svechnikov) are panning out to be high-end pieces.  That just can’t be said for the 2012 group.

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Trade Deadline Primer: Calgary Flames

at CDT | by 5 Comments

With the All-Star break now behind us, the trade deadline looms large and is less than a month away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Calgary Flames. 

After an offseason that saw the Flames’ roster undergo significant upheaval, Calgary has had an uneven, often frustrating 2022-23 season. The team remains in solid position standings-wise, — tied with the Minnesota Wild for the last Wild Card spot in the Western Conference — but fans could not be blamed for expecting more from head coach Darryl Sutter’s team.

Heading into the deadline, the Flames’ status is relatively unclear. GM Brad Treliving told NHL.com’s Aaron Vickers in an interview that his team still hasn’t told him what direction he should head in in terms of transactions. He said:

Listen, we’d like to add to our team, but the most critical part is where your team’s at, right? We’ve got some work to do to get ourselves into a better position than we currently are. We’ve been up and down. There’s been some inconsistency to our game. It’s hard to sit here and start making any proclamations about what you’re going to do at the deadline. We continue to watch our team.

It sounds as though the Flames want to add for a potential playoff run, but don’t want to overextend for a team that may not be capable of true Stanley Cup contention. It’s a difficult spot to be in, especially for a franchise that has invested significant dollars in older, more established players. This leaves the Flames as one of the more interesting teams to watch in advance of the March 3rd deadline.

Record

24-18-10, 5th in the Pacific

Deadline Status

Unclear

Deadline Cap Space

$2.95MM today, $4.44MM in deadline space, 0/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: CGY 1st, CGY 2nd, CGY 4th, CGY 6th, CGY 7th

2024: CGY 1st*, CGY 2nd, CGY 3rd, CGY 4th, CGY 6th

*If Calgary’s 2024 first-rounder is between the picks of 20 and 32, the Montreal Canadiens can choose to take that pick as their return from the Sean Monahan trade.

Trade Chips

Should the Calgary Flames choose to invest in this year’s roster and add established players, the overwhelming likelihood is that the team would either deal from their prospect pool or stable of draft picks in order to get a deal done. In terms of draft picks, the conditions on the team’s 2024 first-round pick make it so they won’t be able to trade it, as it could theoretically belong to the Montreal Canadiens over a year from now.

That leaves the Flames’ 2023 first-round pick as their top draft pick available to trade. Since the Flames’ fate this season remains unclear, it would be a surprise if Treliving chose to deal that pick without any protections attached. But should the Flames be interested in acquiring one of the bigger names on the market, their 2023 first-rounder may be the starting point for any trade offer.

In terms of prospects, the Flames have a few that could be of interest to other clubs. The Flames picked just three times at the 2022 draft, and their prospect pool ranks 20th in the NHL according to The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler. (subscription link) Prized prospects Matt Coronato and Dustin Wolf are presumably off the table in any deals, and it’s likely that since the Flames haven’t firmly placed themselves in the Stanley Cup mix, they’d be similarly unwilling to deal Connor Zary or Jakob Pelletier. 2020 third-round pick Jeremie Poirier, who is having a solid rookie season in the AHL, may be the top prospect the Flames are willing to make available for other teams.

Should the Flames struggle between now and the deadline, they do have a few players on offer that could be of interest to deadline buyers. A rebuild isn’t coming anytime soon, so it’s likely that Treliving would only want to deal players not in his team’s future plans.

One such player is depth forward Trevor Lewis, who has Stanley Cup experience and could interest teams looking for a cheap, reliable addition to their bottom-six.

Another pending unrestricted free agent is Michael Stone, who has played 42 games in a depth role in Calgary this season and could be a low-price option for a team looking for defensive reinforcements.

Team Needs

1) Another scoring forward

While the Flames have playoff hopes this season, they rank just 19th in the NHL in goals for per game. Perhaps even more distressingly, the team ranks 25th in the NHL with a 19% power play scoring rate. While part of the team’s offensive struggles can be attributed to the decline in scoring numbers of the Flames’ marquee offseason additions, Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri, the lack of scoring remains a team-wide issue. Adding a lethal power play threat and someone to help reinforce Sutter’s top-six would give the Flames a major boost.

2) A player who can provide a spark

The Flames’ most pressing need is to add a scoring forward for the reasons outlined above. But what is perhaps more important is for the Flames to add a “spark,” a player or some players capable of energizing a team that hasn’t looked like the juggernaut they once appeared to be last season. While capable of playing some brilliant games, the Flames have lacked consistency and have too often looked frustrated, and stale. If they can find the type of player who is not only a skilled player but also the type of on-ice force and off-ice leader to help rejuvenate the team’s struggling superstars (Huberdeau, Kadri, Jacob Markstrom) then a hot streak could be just around the corner. For as uneven as the Flames’ campaign has been, they remain one extended hot streak from attaining contender status. While Treliving should remain focused on adding some scoring help, finding the specific kind of player who can help ignite a team-wide turnaround should be a priority as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Trade Deadline Primer: Carolina Hurricanes

at CDT | by 10 Comments

With the All-Star break now behind us, the trade deadline looms large and is less than a month away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Carolina Hurricanes.

After narrowly losing in the second round of the playoffs to the Rangers last season, the Hurricanes made a pair of key veteran additions over the summer to look to cement themselves as a contender.  One of those players (Max Pacioretty) is now out for the season but that actually opens up some different opportunities for them to consider from a salary cap perspective with the veteran’s $7MM AAV now on LTIR.

Heading into action tonight, Carolina sits first in the Metropolitan Division and second in the Eastern Conference.  Accordingly, it’s not a matter of if they make a move but rather when they make it.

Record

34-9-8, 1st in the Metropolitan

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$10.16MM in LTIR relief, 1/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: CAR 1st, CAR 2nd, CAR/PHI 3rd*, CAR 4th, CAR 5th, VAN 5th, CAR 6th, CHI 6th, CAR 7th
2024: CAR 1st, CAR 2nd, PHI 2nd, CAR 3rd, CAR 4th, CAR 5th, CAR 6th, CAR 7th

*-Carolina will keep the lower pick between the two

Trade Chips

While they’ll be a buyer, that isn’t to say that Carolina can’t sell as well.  With Frederik Andersen returning to the lineup just before the All-Star break and Pyotr Kochetkov back in the minors, it’s possible that they could look to move Antti Raanta and take advantage of what could be a light goalie trade market.  The pending unrestricted free agent has a very manageable cap hit of $2MM and has a nice 2.46 GAA in 19 games this season, almost identical to his output from 2021-22.  Such a move would come with some risk given Andersen’s injury history but if they’re able to get a decent asset for the veteran netminder, it might make it easier to part with one of their other trade chips.

One other roster player that seems like a reasonable candidate to move is Dylan Coghlan.  The defenseman was the sweetener that Vegas attached for them to take on Pacioretty’s contract and after playing in 59 games with the Golden Knights the year before, it felt like he’d be a useful depth piece.  However, the 24-year-old has only played in 16 games and has been a healthy scratch the rest of the way.  A pending restricted free agent, Coghlan’s $762.5K cap hit is easy for just about any team to absorb and chances are that some selling squads might want to take a look at him for the stretch run.

From there, they’ll turn to their futures pool of picks and prospects.  On the latter front, Jack Drury is likely to be of some interest.  The center has gotten his feet wet with Carolina this season, suiting up in 21 games and while he hasn’t produced much (just two assists), he’s only a year removed from putting up 52 points with AHL Chicago.  There’s some offensive upside to work with potentially.  2019 first-round pick Ryan Suzuki has yet to see NHL action and is in the midst of another injury-shortened season, playing in just 20 games with the Wolves so far.  Noel Gunler slid a bit further than expected in the 2021 draft, lasting into the second round.  His first full season in North America has gone well and his stock should be fairly high as a result.

Defensively, Scott Morrow will get some attention.  The 21-year-old is having another strong season at UMass and is getting relatively close to being NHL-ready.  That type of profile is always enticing to sellers.  Dominick Fensore is certainly an undersized blueliner (5’7) but he has had some success at Boston University.  He’s in his senior year and isn’t a lock to get a contract from Carolina.  If another team wants him, Fensore could be a secondary part of a swap.  Joey Keane’s rights might also be of small interest; after a decent showing on his entry-level deal, he somewhat surprisingly opted to play in the KHL this season where he has done relatively well.

Other Potential Trade Chips: F Dominik Bokk, F Patrik Puistola, F Justin Robidas

Team Needs

1) Top-Six Forward: While Pacioretty’s injury opens up some LTIR room, it also opened up a sizable hole in their top six to try to fill.  Carolina generally hasn’t favored going the rental route so it shouldn’t come as much surprise that Pierre LeBrun linked them to San Jose’s Timo Meier in TSN’s latest Insider Trading segment (video link).  That forward could also be a center with Martin Necas being more of a winger and the trio of Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Jordan Staal, and Paul Stastny not really being suited for top-six duty.

2) Playable Defensive Depth: It seems evident that there isn’t much faith in Coghlan when the team is fully healthy.  Finding a defender (or even two) that they’d be more comfortable using when injuries arise or to spell Calvin de Haan or Jalen Chatfield would be worthwhile.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Tampa Bay Lightning

at CDT | by 5 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2022-23 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Current Cap Hit: $89,574,031 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Nick Perbix (one year, $842.5K)

Potential Bonuses
Perbix: $82.5K

Perbix has already signed an extension so we’ll cover that later on.  His bonuses are games-played based and typically require 80 games to max out.  However, there are generally a few tiers for bonuses at this price point so he should receive some of this amount.  With Tampa Bay into LTIR, whatever Perbix earns will come off their cap next season.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Rudolfs Balcers ($750K, RFA)
F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare ($1MM, UFA)
D Ian Cole ($3MM, UFA)
F Ross Colton ($1.25MM, RFA)
G Brian Elliott ($900K, UFA)
D Callan Foote ($850K, RFA)
F Alex Killorn ($4.45MM, UFA)
F Vladislav Namestnikov ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Corey Perry ($1MM, UFA)

Killorn’s future with Tampa Bay has seemingly been in question for a while now with the team having to cut from its veteran core each season.  Those questions will only intensify now as it’s hard to see how they can afford to keep him.  The 33-year-old has a chance at beating his career high in points (59, set last season) which would at least help him hit the open market on a high note.  He should be able to get a small raise on a medium-term agreement.  Namestnikov also appears to be unlikely to return as he hasn’t fit in during his second stint with the team.  He’ll also be hard-pressed to match his current AAV unless he can turn things around down the stretch.  Perry and Bellemare are low-cost veterans that Tampa Bay will either want to retain or bring in someone else to replace them at likely a slightly lower cap charge if possible.  If they look elsewhere, they’d be in line for similar contracts to what they’re on now.

On the RFA side up front, Colton will be in line for a sizable raise.  He potted 22 goals last season and has a chance at 20 this year.  Notably, he’ll also have salary arbitration eligibility which could push his next contract past the $3MM range.  He’s an important part of their bottom six but they might have to get creative to keep him around.  Balcers was picked up off waivers earlier this season and he tested the UFA market last summer after being bought out.  Another minimum-priced contract should be coming his way which could keep him around for another year in Tampa Bay.

On the back end, Cole is arguably having a better year than he did last season with Carolina, logging his highest ice time since 2018-19 in the process.  Having played on one-year deals for the last two seasons now, he might have a shot at a multi-year agreement at a price tag that’s close to this one.  Foote still hasn’t been able to quite lock down a full-time spot in the lineup which will hurt his case even with arbitration eligibility.  He should be able to push past the $1MM mark but his next deal shouldn’t be much more than that, even if they decide to tack on a second season.

Elliott has put up numbers that are hovering near the league average this year which is a good return on one of the cheapest goalie contracts in the league.  But he turns 38 in April and is going to be going year-to-year from here on out.  On merit, he’s worthy of at least a small raise but if he wants to stay with the Lightning, it’ll have to be at this price point at most.  With how their roster is structured, Tampa Bay simply can’t afford a more expensive backup netminder.

Signed Through 2023-24

D Zach Bogosian ($850K, UFA)
D Haydn Fleury ($762.5K, UFA)
F Brandon Hagel ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Pat Maroon ($1MM, UFA)
D Philippe Myers ($2.55MM in 2022-23, $1.4MM in 2023-24, UFA)
D Brent Seabrook ($6.875MM, UFA)
F Steven Stamkos ($8.5MM, UFA)

Stamkos isn’t really slowing down and has provided a lot of value on this contract as he continues to be a focal point of Tampa Bay’s attack.  Accordingly, he has positioned himself for a raise on his next deal if he wants to go after top dollar.  In that case, he could land an eight-digit AAV, especially with 2024 pegged as the summer for the Upper Limit to jump up by a fair-sized amount.  But if he wants to stick around with the Lightning, this feels like a situation where he could accept a longer-term contract to help try to bring the cap hit down somewhat relative to market value.  Such a deal would take him closer to age 40 which isn’t necessarily ideal but it would keep the price tag closer to where it is now which would allow them to keep the core around as long as possible.

The Lightning paid a sizable price to land Hagel thanks to what has quickly turned into one of the bigger bargains in the league.  If he continues to score around his current pace, he could make a case to quadruple his current price tag.  Even with a higher cap at that time, it might be tough for them to keep both Hagel and Stamkos around.  As for Maroon, he’s a fourth liner at this point and will be 36 when he hits the open market.  That will likely keep him around this price tag two years from now.

Let’s get Seabrook out of the way quickly.  You might have forgotten that he’s here now instead of in Chicago but his situation hasn’t changed as his playing career has come to an end.  He will remain on LTIR until this deal expires which means that Tampa Bay is going to have regular cap space for a few more years.

Myers came over during the summer in the Ryan McDonagh trade and while many expected him to be bought out to give Tampa Bay a cap credit, he was instead extended at this lower price.  Their cap situation has Myers in the minors right now but if he can lock down a regular spot next season, he could be able to land a deal a bit closer to what he’s getting this year.  Bogosian has had a limited role when healthy this season and is more of a depth defender at this point.  A deal around what he’s getting now is where his market should fall.  Fleury, meanwhile, has had a very limited role and until he can establish himself as a regular, his value is going to remain at or near the minimum salary.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Victor Hedman ($7.875MM, UFA)
D Nick Perbix ($1.125MM from 2023-24 through 2024-25, UFA)

Hedman has been Tampa Bay’s top defenseman for the better part of the last decade and hasn’t shown much in the way of signs of slowing down.  At a time when top rearguards are landing more than $10MM when they’re eligible for free agency, he has been a nice bargain for the Lightning and should continue to be for the rest of the deal.  When it’s up, his playing time should be starting to dip which could keep his AAV close to this one, especially if he re-signs.  Perbix has been a pleasant surprise this season which earned him this low-cost extension not too long ago.  It’s a low-risk proposition as if Myers or someone else passes Perbix on the depth chart, the deal can be buried in the minors without any lingering cap charge.

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Trade Deadline Primer: Toronto Maple Leafs

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With the All-Star break now behind us, the trade deadline looms large and is less than a month away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

It has been nearly 20 years since the Maple Leafs won a playoff round. Despite six-straight appearances in the Auston Matthews–Mitch Marner era, the team hasn’t been able to find any success in the postseason. With another first-round date with the Tampa Bay Lightning all but sealed, every effort from the management staff needs to help get them over the hump.

Remember, Matthews and William Nylander are scheduled for unrestricted free agency after next season, with Marner and John Tavares only under contract through 2024-25. General manager Kyle Dubas is once again looking at making a significant trade deadline move to try and support this core before it is too late.

Record

31-13-8, 2nd in the Atlantic

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$1.13MM in LTIR relief, 0/3 retention slots used, 49/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: TOR 1st, TOR 3rd, OTT 3rd, TOR 5th, TOR 6th
2024: TOR 1st, TOR 2nd, TOR 4th, TOR 5th, TOR 6th, TOR 7th, OTT 7th

Trade Chips

At last year’s deadline, the Maple Leafs were able to hold onto their first-round pick, moving three seconds and a third for Mark Giordano, Colin Blackwell, and Ilya Lyubushkin. This year, that top selection probably has to be on the table in any negotiations that include an impact player. The 2024 first-round pick is also probably in play, though beyond that, there isn’t a ton of draft capital they can move.

So it comes to the prospect pool for Toronto, which is also relatively shallow. Matthew Knies was seemingly untouchable last summer, but perhaps the Maple Leafs would consider moving him this time around in the right deal. Nick Robertson would have been a piece, but given his latest serious injury, he’s likely off the table. Topi Niemela and Roni Hirvonen are mid-level prospects at best that likely can’t bring back a serious difference-maker by themselves.

The focus could turn to some roster players, though that avenue also doesn’t hold much value for rebuilding clubs. Alexander Kerfoot could be included in a deal to clear some cap space, but he shouldn’t really be considered a trade chip. The young defensemen – Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren in particular – are likely too valuable to Toronto’s future to make them available.

Among teams looking to add at the deadline, Toronto probably has one of the worst asset pools to pull from. That means Dubas and company will have to look for creative ways to improve the roster instead of getting into a bidding war on the top names. It’s hard to imagine them winning a player like Timo Meier, for instance, when they have to compete with deep, young prospect pools like the ones in New Jersey or Buffalo.

That’s not to say they won’t try. Toronto has added every year to try and fill gaps on the roster, and this year should be no different.

Other potential trade chips: F Fraser Minten, F Nick Moldenhauer, F Pierre Engvall, F Pontus Holmberg

Team Needs

1) Top-six winger: There is a glaring hole in the Maple Leafs lineup, and it’s been there for a number of years now. The second-line left wing spot has been filled by a number of different players – Kerfoot, Ilya Mikheyev, Alex Galchenyuk, Calle Jarnkrok – but none of them have been a perfect fit. It’s why a player like Meier continues to get linked to Toronto and why every other winger likely will be speculated on in the coming weeks.

2) Third-line center: For a team that is usually considered “loaded” offensively, it might seem weird to see two forwards listed here. The truth is, though, that Toronto is a relatively strong defensive team, with eight capable NHL defensemen on the roster already. Could they improve the back end? Sure. But a true third-line center that can drive some offense would be more valuable.

David Kampf, currently in that role, set a career-high last season with 26 points and has just 32 goals in his 369-game NHL career. One of the problems the Maple Leafs have faced in recent years is that if the Matthews and Tavares lines get shut down, the team has no chance of scoring. Getting someone who can elevate his linemates and drive play on the third line would move them a lot closer than a marginal upgrade on defense.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Trade Deadline Primer: St. Louis Blues

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With the All-Star break now behind us, the trade deadline looms large and is less than a month away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the St. Louis Blues.

This wasn’t the plan for St. Louis. After making it to the second round last season, investing heavily in their young core, and bringing back veterans like Nick Leddy, the focus was on the playoffs and the Stanley Cup. Now, more than halfway through the season, they are approaching the deadline as a seller with some of the biggest chips available.

Injuries – or their recovery – will seriously impact the Blues deadline strategy. But general manager Doug Armstrong has never been one to hold onto expiring veterans when he doesn’t believe the team has a chance at a championship. It will be an interesting few weeks for St. Louis.

Record

23-25-3, 6th in the Central

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$1.186MM in LTIR relief, 0/3 retention slots used, 48/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: STL 1st, STL 3rd, STL 4th, STL 5th, STL 6th, STL 7th
2024: STL 1st, STL 2nd, STL 3rd, STL 4th, STL 5th, STL 6th, STL 7th

Trade Chips

There are eight roster players scheduled to become unrestricted free agents at the end of the season for St. Louis, and any one of them could be moved in the coming weeks.

Things start with Vladimir Tarasenko, who has been limited by injury but still has 10 goals and 29 points in 38 games. After multiple shoulder surgeries, the veteran winger proved he could still be an impact player by putting up arguably the best season of his career in 2021-22, scoring 34 goals and 82 points in 75 games. Adding that Tarasenko has to be attractive to contenders who want a bit more punch in their top six, especially because his goal scoring has largely been at even strength over the years.

This is a proven Stanley Cup winner with 41 goals in 90 career playoff games, and even though his $7.5MM contract is substantial, it’s not impossible to fit in with a bit of salary retention. The talk of proven champions doesn’t end there, though. Captain Ryan O’Reilly was the Conn Smythe winner in 2019 when he led the playoffs with 23 points in 26 games, and he took home the Selke at the end of that season as the league’s best defensive forward.

While this year has been something of a nightmare, and he is still on injured reserve, there is some optimism that he’ll be ready before the deadline even comes. O’Reilly has resumed skating, according to Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic, and is the kind of player that coaching staffs dream of adding to the third line of a contender.

Interestingly enough, though, there is a third forward who very well could have a wider market before the deadline. Ivan Barbashev has been told he isn’t getting re-signed, according to Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff, making him a lock for a trade over the next few weeks. While Tarasenko and O’Reilly have huge cap hits that will have to be creatively dealt with, Barbashev comes at just $2.25MM and could fit in almost anywhere. Like most players in St. Louis, Barbashev is in the midst of a down year, with just nine goals and 24 points after scoring 26 and 60 last year. But his physicality, speed, and versatility will make him a wanted man.

All three of those forwards could bring back substantial returns for the Blues, giving them some ammunition to add more talent back to the roster in the offseason.

Other potential trade chips: D Niko Mikkola, F Noel Acciari, G Thomas Greiss

Team Needs

1) Young centers: Could O’Reilly be traded for another young center yet to make his mark? The Buffalo Sabres are certainly happy they included Tage Thompson in the 2018 deal that sent him to St. Louis, and J.T. Compher is still playing a big role for the Colorado Avalanche eight years after he was included in the original O’Reilly deal.

If the Blues decide to move on from O’Reilly, instead of re-signing him, they’ll be left pretty thin down the middle of the ice. Targeting a young NHL-ready center in one of their deadline moves might be the way to go, giving them someone who can grow into a role behind Robert Thomas in the years ahead.

2) Draft picks: This isn’t about podium visits in the summer – the Blues already have some good prospects and aren’t going to be interested in a true rebuild. But picks you get now can be moved later to add players to the fold. They’ve done this before. In 2017, St. Louis was headed for the playoffs but had a decision to make with Kevin Shattenkirk. He was expiring, not expected to re-sign, but a huge part of their attack.

They flipped him to the Washington Capitals at the deadline for a haul, including a first-round pick. A few months later, that pick was sent to the Philadelphia Flyers as part of the package to acquire Schenn. It’s hard for contenders to part with NHL talent at the deadline, but they throw around picks like candy. Adding assets now doesn’t necessarily mean waiting around for them to mature – you just have more ammunition later on.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Trade Deadline Primer: Edmonton Oilers

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With the All-Star break now behind us, the trade deadline looms large and is less than a month away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Edmonton Oilers.

After some early panic, the Oilers have settled into a groove of late and are making a strong push for the Pacific Division crown. Connor McDavid has reached another level of offensive greatness with 92 points through 50 games, and Leon Draisaitl is second in the league scoring race (but still trails by 16 points). Stuart Skinner has given them some stability in net, and Zach Hyman continues to outperform his contract.

Still, there are some concerns about the defense in Edmonton, and the forward group still lacks depth. The gap from the fourth-highest scoring forward (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins) to the fifth (Ryan McLeod) is 45 points, showing just how much room for improvement there is at the deadline. If they can find creative ways to make the cap work, everything is set up for the Oilers to make a big splash this year to fill out the lineup card and try to go on another deep postseason run.

Record

28-18-4, 4th in the Pacific

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$1.125MM in LTIR relief, 1/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: EDM 1st, EDM 2nd, EDM 3rd, EDM 5th, EDM 6th, EDM 7th
2024: EDM 1st, EDM 2nd, EDM 4th, EDM 5th, EDM 6th

Trade Chips

First and foremost, it is all-in time for Edmonton with regard to their draft picks. The team only has three more playoff runs with Leon Draisaitl before his bargain contract expires and four until McDavid once again becomes the highest-paid player in the league. Their first-round pick this year and next should be in play if it can get them closer to a championship.

That’s not to say they throw it away for an insignificant rental, but there are no more building years in Edmonton. The time is now to challenge for the Cup, and if an impact player is available (even better if they come with a few years of control), Ken Holland should be willing to lose as many picks as it takes.

Beyond that, some other chips could be on the table as the deadline approaches.

Jesse Puljujarvi is the one that stands out, as his time in Edmonton appears to be dwindling one way or another. The 24-year-old can’t score this season, and sits with just four goals and ten points through 49 games. Is he getting a great opportunity? Not anymore, but that shouldn’t stop him from outscoring someone like Brett Kulak or Derek Ryan. Puljujarvi isn’t going to bring back much on his own, but moving him out would open up some cap flexibility for the Oilers to make a bigger move.

On the other hand, a young player like Dylan Holloway could also be dangled in a significant trade. The 21-year-old has shown enough in his rookie season to prove he will play many NHL games but not enough to guarantee he is a top line player. Selected 14th overall in 2020, if he isn’t ready to make an impact this year, he shouldn’t be off limits in trade talks. With just nine points in 46 games, that seems to be the case.

Something similar could be said about Evan Bouchard, who has seen his ice time slashed this season. The 10th overall pick from 2018 is still just 23 and had an encouraging 43-point rookie season last year, but is still a liability on defense and can’t be entirely trusted by the coaching staff. If the Oilers target a legitimate top-four defenseman at the deadline, there’s certainly a chance the other team targets Bouchard as a piece coming back.

Other potential trade chips: F Raphael Lavoie, F Xavier Bourgault, F Reid Schaefer

Team Needs

1) Third-line center: Defense doesn’t always mean defensemen. Acquiring a true two-way pivot that can fill the third-line role, allowing Nugent-Hopkins to move up into the top-six full-time, would solve several of the Oilers’ problems. Sometimes, the term two-way is used to describe defense-only players – that’s not what Edmonton would be targeting here. This is a true impact player who can drive play in the right direction while keeping the puck out of his own net. He doesn’t need to be McDavid on offense or Patrice Bergeron on defense, but a true difference-maker in this spot would help take some of the pressure off the top players while also elevating the Oilers whenever they are off the ice.

2) Top-four defenseman: The need for a defenseman might eventually disappear with the play of Philip Broberg, but it’s hard to bet on him ascending into a big role this postseason. Getting a minute-munching defender who can play in all situations is a must for the Oilers at the deadline. The caveat here is that it shouldn’t be the kind of bruising, physical addition several other contenders will look for. Edmonton desperately needs another player who can defend hard but also move the puck quickly to their talented forwards. Someone who could theoretically take over the powerplay duties from Tyson Barrie would be ideal, though it would be hard to mess with a unit that is clipping along at 32%.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

PHR Mailbag: Dylan Larkin Edition

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With Bo Horvat off the market now following his trade (and subsequent extension), the intrigue surrounding Red Wings center Dylan Larkin has started to pick up.  To that end, there were a few questions about him in our latest mailbag callout.  Rather than squeeze answers these into yesterday’s column, let’s assess Larkin’s specific situation here instead.  The rest of the mailbag will run next weekend as usual.

joebad34: With Dylan Larkin having difficulties getting a new contract from Detroit, is he now on the trading block? What would be the asking price? Would the Sabres sending, #1, Mittelstadt, Olofsson, Krebs and the rights to Portillo or Johnson work, if the Sabres and Larkin agree to a deal?

So, let’s look at where things stand first.  It was reported latest last month that Larkin’s camp rejected an eight-year, $64MM extension.  At first glance, it could be inferred that he’s likely to be traded, especially since that offer represented a notable increase on his current $6.1MM AAV.  Not so fast.  Larkin told reporters (including ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski) earlier this week that he still sees himself as a Red Wing long-term and reiterated his hope to stay with his hometown team.

With that in mind, I would suggest that right now, he’s not on the trade block.  While I’m among the many that are stunned that an extension isn’t done yet, a month is still a fairly long time to get something done.  At this point, there’s no immediate rush to start soliciting offers; Plan A is still getting a deal signed.  Until things get to the point where an extension for sure isn’t getting done, I expect GM Steve Yzerman’s sole focus will be on the contract, not a trade.

Now, as to this trade proposal, you have too much going back.  Three players, a prospect, and a first-rounder is too much even with the expected premium that would be associated with doing a sign-and-trade.  I also wonder how much value the prospects have.  If Ryan Johnson’s heart is set on testing free agency this summer, how useful is he to Detroit, aside from the compensatory late second-round pick?  It’s a similar question for Erik Portillo who doesn’t have the compensatory pick option and frankly, the Red Wings are hoping Sebastian Cossa is their goalie of the future even with his first pro season not going the smoothest.

Out of the other pieces, I think a combo of Peyton Krebs, the first-round pick, and Casey Mittelstadt would be of interest to Detroit; I don’t sense Victor Olofsson would be the type of player Detroit would be willing to take on.  Is that enough for an extended Larkin?  I would say no but as a pure rental, that type of offer might get them in the mix if Detroit does wind up moving him and Buffalo decides to try to make a trade splash.

tigers22 2: What would possible packages be for Larkin and Bertuzzi if the Red Wings aren’t able to get new contracts with them done and decide to deal them?

The Horvat trade provides a pretty good idea of what Larkin’s trade market should be.  They’re in the same tier talent-wise (I know Horvat’s having a big year offensively but historically, they’re comparable), on somewhat close contracts, and are seeking a pretty big raise.  Horvat (with 25% retention) yielded a cap matcher (Anthony Beauvillier), a protected first-round pick, and a good prospect in Aatu Raty.  Larkin’s numbers aren’t as good but if Detroit was willing to retain 50% instead of the 25% Vancouver retained, that would help even out the difference.  There are too many teams to break down the same type of offer from but that would be a reasonable framework.

Then there’s Tyler Bertuzzi, a player whose value has probably taken a beating this season.  A year ago, he produced like a top-line winger.  This year, he can’t stay healthy and has just one goal in 17 games.  If you’re Detroit, you’re hyping last season’s numbers.  If you’re another team, you’re pointing at how poorly things have gone this season and are offering accordingly.  With 50% retention, I could see a team going as high a second-round pick if they think he can rebound and perhaps fit beyond this season.  I don’t expect there to be much more of a package than that though unless the acquiring team needs to send some money back.

Johnny Z: What do you think of Larkin being traded to Boston? A Horvat-type return would be DeBrusk, Brett Harrison, and a 23 1st for Larkin at 1/2 salary. Does that sound about right?

I really like the idea of Larkin to Boston in theory (again, this assumes an extension doesn’t get done).  Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci aren’t going to be around much longer and at some point, he’s going to need to be replaced.  Internally, their options are basically moving Pavel Zacha back down the middle and Charlie Coyle.  They’re both good players but neither of them are top centers.  Getting and extending Larkin would be a great outcome but fitting him and a re-signed David Pastrnak in could be tricky.

I’m not quite as bullish on the idea of him being a rental player.  Yes, this is a go-for-broke type of season but is an acquisition that pushes Krejci to the third line the right move to make?  If it’s a pure rental, I think a top-four defender might be the better way to go to work as injury insurance and really deepen that part of their lineup.  They’re the top-scoring team and the top defensive team so either way, it’s adding to an organizational strength but I think the back end is the thinner part to address.  Don’t get me wrong, Larkin as a rental would certainly help as well but it might not be the most optimal spot to address for a short-term upgrade.

As for the offer, I’m not sure Jake DeBrusk is someone that Boston wants to part with right now.  He’s at a considerably higher level than Beauvillier, a player some have suggested that the Isles were open to moving in the past just to get him off the books let alone for a return of quality.  That’s a sunk cost whereas DeBrusk is in the middle of a career year.  Mike Reilly is more of a salary ballast type of player.

Now, with Boston’s pick set to be considerably lower than New York’s, that prospect needs to be better than Raty.  I’m not sure Brett Harrison is, at least to a big enough extent.  I could see Detroit wanting Fabian Lysell here, especially if it’s a sign-and-trade while Mason Lohrei could be the difference-splitter as someone that could conceivably push for a spot with Detroit as soon as next season.  Is that an offer that would vault them to the top?  Perhaps not but it’d be high enough to have them legitimately in the bidding should the Red Wings get to that point if discussions on an extension with Larkin fall apart.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Deadline Primer: Columbus Blue Jackets

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With the All-Star break now upon us, the trade deadline looms large and is just a month away. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Columbus Blue Jackets.

When the Columbus Blue Jackets signed Johnny Gaudreau to a seven-year, $68.25MM contract last summer, and followed it up with a four-year, $34.8MM deal for Patrik Laine, the message was clear: it’s time for a new identity. Seth Jones had been traded, and there was to be a new duo leading the way to contention. Gaudreau and Laine seemed like a perfect fit stylistically, and the team committed nearly $20MM per season to put them together.

Unfortunately, you can’t predict injuries, and the absences have decimated the Blue Jackets. Laine has missed time on several occasions, Zach Werenski was ruled out early for the season, Jakub Voracek’s career is in doubt, and the injured reserve list has had at least five or six players on a constant rotation through the year. The Blue Jackets’ season is over, and now they will be focused on securing the best draft position by losing as many games as possible down the stretch. Trading off expiring assets is a must.

Record

15-32-4, 8th in the Metropolitan

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$8.87MM in LTIR relief (with the possibility for much more), 0/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: CBJ 1st, CBJ 2nd, CBJ 3rd, CGY 3rd, CBJ 4th, WPG 4th, CBJ 6th, CBJ 7th
2024: CBJ 1st, CBJ 2nd, CBJ 3rd, CBJ 4th, CBJ 5th, CBJ 6th, CBJ 7th

Trade Chips

The big one in Columbus this year is Vladislav Gavrikov, who has already drawn interest from a number of contending teams. The pending free agent defenseman has likely had his name mentioned more by NHL media over the last few months than his entire career to this point. While he won’t offer a ton of offensive production, the 6’3″ shutdown defender has averaged nearly 21 minutes a night for his four-year NHL career, racking up nearly 400 blocked shots, and over 300 hits during that stretch.

This isn’t a bruiser, exactly – Gavrikov did have 33 points last season for Columbus – but he also isn’t going to come in and run a powerplay. His fit is likely on a contender’s second or third pairing while logging big penalty-killing minutes. Luckily, for the Blue Jackets, that’s exactly what playoff hopefuls are looking for. Most top teams already have their powerplay quarterbacks and top-pairing roles secured internally and are just looking to add a competent defender to the mix before a long playoff grind. With Gavrikov’s $2.8MM cap hit, almost anyone in the league could afford to fit him in, given the right circumstances.

There is also someone like Joonas Korpisalo, who could be acquired as a backup goaltender, though his performance the last few years has been anything but consistent. On an expiring $1.3MM contract, he has a .908 save percentage this season through 23 appearances but was sub-.900 in each of the last two years. As a break-glass option, he might be useful, but there aren’t any true contenders looking at him as a legitimate starter.

One of the most interesting chips that the Blue Jackets have is Gustav Nyquist, who recently was ruled out for the rest of the regular season. That doesn’t mean playoffs, and his camp immediately put the word out that the veteran forward would work hard in hopes of returning for some postseason action. If that is possible, any team currently in LTIR could acquire him (as long as they can creatively open the required space for one day), stash him until the playoffs, and then activate him whenever he’s ready.

The Blue Jackets are actually experienced in this kind of transaction. In 2021, Columbus traded Riley Nash to the Toronto Maple Leafs while he was injured, in exchange for a conditional seventh-round pick. If Nash was able to rehab and appear for the Maple Leafs in the playoffs, the pick would upgrade to a sixth-rounder – which it did. Nyquist is a much better offensive piece than Nash ever was, and the Blue Jackets may be able to secure something even better, should his rehab go well over the next month.

Other potential trade chips: D Marcus Bjork, D Gavin Bayreuther, F Eric Robinson

Team Needs

1) Centers: Unlike some of the other teams fighting for the basement, Columbus isn’t going through a tear-down rebuild. They are actually on their way up, with young players installed all over the roster. One of the biggest problems to this point, however, has been the lack of depth down the middle. As much as the team loves captain Boone Jenner, to be competitive he can’t really operate as a first-line player. Jack Roslovic has never taken that next step, and youngsters like Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson are still finding their way. The Blue Jackets may be one of the rare teams that actually want a veteran back in deadline deals, someone who can step in and play meaningful minutes for them right away. That doesn’t mean over-the-hill stars, but in-their-prime players who can have an impact.

2) Draft picks: That’s not to say they won’t be loading up on picks. Capital in this year’s draft is precious, especially if the Blue Jackets want to make any offseason moves to improve the roster. The goaltending is currently an issue, and they probably need to target another defenseman at some point to replace Gavrikov’s outgoing minutes. Adding some picks at the deadline would give Jarmo Kekalainen a lot more flexibility in making deals on the draft floor.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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